Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach et al.
Here’s the draft essay:
Introduction
Climate is a complex and dynamic system, regulated by a multitude of interrelated processes, feedback loops, and emergent phenomena. Among these, one of the most fascinating and influential is the role of thunderstorms in regulating temperature. Thunderstorms are not only a spectacular natural phenomenon but also a critical driver of the Earth’s climate, through their capacity to transport heat, moisture, and energy across the atmosphere and the surface. In this essay, I will explore the mechanisms and effects of thunderstorms on climate, highlighting their emergent properties and their interaction with other factors, such as greenhouse gases, aerosols, and land use changes.
Thunderstorms and temperature regulation
Thunderstorms are formed by the convection of warm and moist air, which rises from the surface and cools as it ascends, releasing latent heat and moisture. This process creates a vertical gradient of temperature and humidity, which can trigger the formation of cumulus clouds, followed by the development of thunderheads and lightning. Thunderstorms are a result of the atmospheric instability that arises from the contrast between the warm, moist air at the surface and the colder, drier air aloft, which creates a buoyancy force that drives the convection.
One of the critical functions of thunderstorms is to transport heat from the surface to the upper atmosphere, where it can be radiated back into space. This cooling effect is essential for regulating the temperature of the Earth’s atmosphere, which would otherwise become much warmer without it. Thunderstorms are also responsible for distributing heat and moisture across the surface, through the process of rainfall, which can vary in intensity and spatial distribution depending on the local conditions. In this way, thunderstorms can both cool and warm the Earth’s surface, depending on their location and timing.
Another crucial aspect of thunderstorms is their capacity to generate atmospheric waves, which can propagate across long distances and alter the temperature and pressure patterns of the atmosphere. These waves can interact with other factors, such as jet streams, ocean currents, and large-scale weather patterns, to create complex feedback loops that regulate the climate. For example, thunderstorms in the tropics can generate waves that propagate to the poles and influence the formation of polar vortexes, which can have a significant impact on the weather patterns of the mid-latitudes.
Emergent properties of thunderstorms
One of the most intriguing aspects of thunderstorms is their emergent properties, which arise from the complex interactions between their component parts. Thunderstorms are not just the sum of their parts, but also a product of the feedback loops and nonlinear dynamics that govern their behavior. For example, thunderstorms can generate their own wind patterns, which can create downdrafts and updrafts that reinforce or weaken the convection. These wind patterns can also interact with other thunderstorms and weather systems to create complex patterns of circulation and precipitation.
Another emergent property of thunderstorms is their capacity to generate lightning, which is not only a spectacular visual display but also a critical source of energy and ionization for the atmosphere. Lightning can break down molecules and create reactive species, such as ozone and nitrogen oxides, which can influence the chemical composition of the atmosphere and affect the radiative balance. Lightning can also generate acoustic waves, which can propagate across the atmosphere and influence the formation of clouds and precipitation.
So to return to the title, what is curious about this essay?
Well, the essay was composed entirely by ChatGPT in response to my request, viz:
Compose a detailed essay on emergent climate phenomena regulating temperature, mentioning thunderstorms, in the style of Willis Eschenbach’s writings at wattsupwiththat.com
I have not changed one word of it. Go figure …
Best wishes to everyone,
w.
This is fun stuff. Going to be an educational nightmare, however, as students now can get ChatGPT to write nice summary homework assignments without learning anything about the assigned subject or how to research it.
ChatGPT even passed a law school test, albeit with a C grade. AI replacing many hack lawyers would be real social progress. Albeit bad news for the EXXON knew crowd. Leaving remaining real lawyers to be trained only at the best law schools.
Just a few minutes ago, I tried this query:
Compose a detailed essay using the theories of Brian Soden and Issac Held to explain how water vapor feedback mechanisms amplify carbon dioxide’s basic warming effects inside the earth’s atmosphere thus causing climate change
ChatGPT blew off with an error and did not elaborate as to why the query failed.
A clever teacher (they do exist) can defeat the bots.
AI lawyers don’t sound too dangerous. AI judges do.
“ Going to be an educational nightmare, however, as students now can get ChatGPT to write nice summary homework assignments without learning anything about the assigned subject or how to research it.”
Yes we’re going to have to be smart about the exams we set!
Willis
I really enjoy the easy to read nature and topics of this article and others. Every claim in your post above is absolutely factual and documented in data.
You are one of the few people that can see the atmosphere and how it is directly linked to the oceans and the effects from pole to pole.
Martin
Journalists are toast.
But who reports events to the AI?
News agencies
I find this part interesting: “the amount of heat released by CO2 is relatively small compared to the overall energy balance of the Earth. According to some estimates, CO2 may account for less than 1% of the total heat transfer from the surface to the upper atmosphere.“.
Apologies for any transcription errors.
Probably somebody has already beaten me to the idea – I’m wondering if this thing can spit out an essay that gets a single detail right about the ClimateGate scandal. I’d wager the odds lean toward it responding it can’t write such an essay because no info exists for an event that was no big deal. Or else it will say “X” (where x = a number between 8 and 25) official inquiries absolved The Mann et al. of all wrongdoing.
Try it for yourself!
Regards,
w.
To be honest, I was suspicious so the last line didn’t surprise me much.
WE always provides data, graphs and charts.
ChatGPT can mimic writing styles and ideas but it has no data.
It’s like an endless Trudeau speech.
Willis always shows us the money.
From the article: “Lightning can also generate acoustic waves, which can propagate across the atmosphere and influence the formation of clouds and precipitation.”
I notice when lightning strikes during a rain storm that the intensity of the rain increases shortly thereafter.
Even more fascinating was the nighttime thunderstorm image. Stunning! I found the original by pilot Santiago Borja at his website here:
https://www.santiagoborja.com/portfolio/
True, Stinker. Borja’s photos are amazing. Photos like that are one of the reasons I love studying the climate. They reinforce the sense of awe that I describe in my post “Awe, Shucks“.
Regards,
w.
When Willie E. leaves this world someday, will he, and other authors, be replaced by ChatGBT?
How do we know Willie E. did not write this himself? I don’t see the expected leftist ChatGBT spin that climate change and CO2 have caused thunderstorms to be more frequent and stronger, which is unprecedented, and worse than scientists previously thought.
ChatGPT obviously needs leftist reprogramming.
I guess the good news is ChatGPT never asked “Who’s Willie E.?”
ChatGBT, Facebook and Twitter are permanent no-go zones for me.
I am not thrilled about seeing Willie E. in the byline. After reading this tedious essay, I now say to ChatGBT: “You can kiss my xxx”.
xxx = scientific term
Honest Climate Science and Energy
Willis the subject mater is along the lines of what you write about, but it is not at all your style of writing. Your insight and wit make your articles a pleasure to read, but this was plain boring. After I had read a few dry sentences I remembered that it was supposedly written by Willis Eschenbach et al. I figured the this al character must have done the actual writing, but I couldn’t understand why you would lend your name to someone else’s writing. It seemed so out of character. Anyway, love your work. Keep writing.
OK, I tried it with a simple challenge.
Me–Excluding all opinion and reference to consensus or authority provide empirical evidence that Carbon dioxide is a primary driver of climate.
IT–There is empirical evidence that carbon dioxide (CO2) is a primary driver of climate change. This evidence comes from multiple sources and lines of research, including:
Taken together, this empirical evidence supports the idea that carbon dioxide is a primary driver of climate change. While there may be other factors that influence climate, such as changes in solar radiation or volcanic activity, the evidence suggests that CO2 is the main driver of the current warming trend.
1 and 5 can be rejected outright since the ice core evidence confirms the opposite relationship and computer models are not empirical evidence. 2 is an in vitro relationship that does nothing to support the extreme outcomes predicted. 4 is equivocal and not particularly relevant to climate as such. 3 seems to have been contradicted by Lindzen and Choi’s work.
Does anyone else call it a robofail?
Beware. SkyNet is almost upon us. What time will it become self-aware?
I don’t argue with a machine. Even with a machine that resembles the IPCC.
Willis,
Perhaps I have missed it, but have you done an approximation of the energy which thunderstorms could potentially dissipate into space? i.e. average energy dissipated per some unit if thunderstorms times the numbers of estimated thunderstorms. I imagine there are at least somewhat reasonable estimates of the numbers of thunderstorms, for example, as well as “average” size etc.
This would give a reasonable idea on the potential systemic impact of this phenomenon.
Not sure what you mean by “dissipate into space”. Nor is it clear how we might divide thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm “dissipation”. For example, thunderstorms cool inter alia by increasing the winds around the base. This, combined with descending dry air which has been stripped of its moisture via condensation inside the storm, leads to greatly increased surface evaporation … but how would you measure that?
Best regards,
w.
The core idea behind your hypothesis is that thunderstorms act as a way to regulate temperature. As you note, there are both cooling and heating (via increased water vapor content?).
To expand on what I asked: if global temperatures are rising but the tropics are not exhibiting the same phenomenon – does it not mean that the net cooling executed by thunderstorms is offsetting the global temperature increase/CO2 increase/whatever in the tropics?
And if there is a way to measure this net change, multiplied by the estimated number of thunderstorms, it could provide some statistical basis behind your hypothesis.
Understandably this is difficult – not just because of grid size considerations in the data but because the thunderstorms are transient. Even land doesn’t help since presumably dust devils perform the same function.
But perhaps there are regions where this type of activity is truncated – maybe by elevation or being mountainous? Are there differences in thunderstorm/dust devil activity between ocean facing and moisture stripped sides of mountain ranges, for example? Are dust devils/thunderstorms less frequent in specific types of terrain?
It’s the old ventriloquist joke!
Which one’s the dummy?
… Willis cautiously raises his hand …
w.
https://scitechdaily.com/chatgpt-generative-ai-usc-experts-with-key-information-you-should-know/