Essay by Eric Worrall
Global warming is causing colder Februaries, and arctic cold outbreaks, according to climatologist Judah Cohen.
Thanks To Climate Change, February Is Now The Cruelest Month
Jeff McMahon
Senior Contributor
Jan 29, 2023,12:14am ESTThose unusual frozen Februaries in Texas may not be so unusual anymore.
Early winter has been warming across North America, but late winter is another story. Scientists have documented a cooling trend over more than 40 Februaries, marked by dangerous and increasingly common intrusions of Arctic air deep into the United States.
“December has certainly been warming if you look at the U.S.,” Judah Cohen, a climatologist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, says in a recent video. But “February, going back to 1979—so quite a few years now—we’re actually seeing in the center of the U.S. a very distinctive cooling trend.”
…
“We tend to get more severe winter weather when the polar vortex is weak and more milder rainy weather when the polar vortex is strong, and we’ve seen a decrease in the strong state of the polar vortex and an increase and the weak state of the polar vortex,” Cohen said in an interview with Peter Sinclair, a videographer for Yale Climate Connections who posts pithy snippets of interviews on his excellent Youtube channel, greenmanbucket.
…
Read more: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2023/01/29/thanks-to-climate-change-february-is-now-the-cruelest-month/
The video interview;
The abstract of the paper;
Linking Arctic variability and change with extreme winter weather in the United States
JUDAH COHEN , LAURIE AGEL, MATHEW BARLOW, CHAIM I. GARFINKEL, AND IAN WHITE
SCIENCE
1 Sep 2021
Vol 373, Issue 6559
pp. 1116-1121Cold weather disruptions
Despite the rapid warming that is the cardinal signature of global climate change, especially in the Arctic, where temperatures are rising much more than elsewhere in the world, the United States and other regions of the Northern Hemisphere have experienced a conspicuous and increasingly frequent number of episodes of extremely cold winter weather over the past four decades. Cohen et al. combined observations and models to demonstrate that Arctic change is likely an important cause of a chain of processes involving what they call a stratospheric polar vortex disruption, which ultimately results in periods of extreme cold in northern midlatitudes (see the Perspective by Coumou). —HJS
Abstract
The Arctic is warming at a rate twice the global average and severe winter weather is reported to be increasing across many heavily populated mid-latitude regions, but there is no agreement on whether a physical link exists between the two phenomena. We use observational analysis to show that a lesser-known stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) disruption that involves wave reflection and stretching of the SPV is linked with extreme cold across parts of Asia and North America, including the recent February 2021 Texas cold wave, and has been increasing over the satellite era. We then use numerical modeling experiments forced with trends in autumn snow cover and Arctic sea ice to establish a physical link between Arctic change and SPV stretching and related surface impacts.
…
Read more: https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.abi9167
Colder winters are obviously a sign of global warming. Lets hope governments get global warming under control, before we all freeze to death.
Update (EW): Willis points out Februaries are actually getting warmer.
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As I remember during my 1st Winter warfare exercise in the 10th SFG it got down to – 30 F in the Green Mountains of Vermont and never got above 0 during the entire 15 days we were out living in it.
That was Feb 1982. I lost 15 lb in 15 days even though I was in great physical condition.
There is NO downward trend in February temperatures in the US and no increasing trend for cold minima. The claims are wrong. By the way, Judah Cohen was an ex grad student of mine…cliff mass
ouch!
Yes, he’s speaking about are very specific region of the US and another in China and only during one month of the year.
The rest of the world, the trend is the opposite. Based on the language, also for those regions the rest of the year.
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4867/meta
I’ll just drop this here:
Paper describing academic fraud as innovative writing technique surprisingly popular among academics.
https://twitter.com/nathlarigaldie/status/1606240836236169216
“826 likes (and counting) and 157 retweets for a study that claims the best way to publish is to p-hack and HARK your way through it. This is not acceptable, and I am astounded by the amount of appreciation it is receiving.“
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s42995-021-00120-z
I have just read the novel Winter Games by Daniel Church. It is a novel about a set of activists who one after the other arrange their suicide by self-inflicted hypothermia by sitting in light clothing in a stream of air from a fan at a temperature of 59Deg F about 15 Dig C. 15 Degrees was the selected temperature which is the spatially and temporally average temperature of the world.
The main purpose of this exercise was to publicise the huge number of deaths by hypothermia of propel too poor to afford paying skyrocketing energy bills largely as a result of misguided green policies. It is a real good read both as a general summary of the vacuousness so the Climatist point of view and as a good old fashioned suspense thriller. I recommend it.
Reading this book made me think about who are the authors whose books have most effect on both sides of the debate. On the sceptic side I can come up with James Delingpole, Tim Ball, Andrew Montford, Ian Plimer, Steve Kooning, Michael Schellenberger, Bjorn Lomborg, Jim Steele, Donna Laframboise, Patrick Moore and many others. Generally, on the sceptic side the books are well written and properly researched.
On the other side, where I have tended not to waste my money by buying any of the doomster’s books because mostly, they are evidence – free “scientists Say ““97% of climate scientists “and other piles of vacuous nonsense and undocumented assertions. One exception -I did in fact buy Michael Mann’s Climate wars book and found as expected that Mann’s literary style is as tedious and half-baked as his scholarship and scientific rigour. A pathetic stream of drivel and big oil conspiracy theory
Out of interest Can anyone tell me which books from the AGW camp are the most influential to their acolytes, or the most widely read, or even the most interesting if these guys go in for interesting writing. Oh I also read the tome by the royal idiot formerly known as Prince. It was a Ladybird Book directed at children to scare them witless and push his green agenda- Wine and cheese powered Aston Martins and helicopters for the crowned knobs and communally owned bicycles for the serfs
“Out of interest Can anyone tell me which books from the AGW camp are the most influential to their acolytes, or the most widely read”
It seems to me that Climate Change Alarmists get their information from headlines, not books.
Man’s CO2 (But only from fossil fuel. You can breath easy.) = Global Warming = Colder stuff?
https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/6699ec96-fd9c-4bcb-bab6-9f7adae40573
For what’s it worth, I looked at the Hadcet data for Dec, Jan, and Feb since 1980.
Note the attached graphic.
All three months show warming, with the slope for Feb higher (2x’s) than Jan or Dec. So, looks like Feb is not the cruelest month according to this dataset.
BTW, speaking of warm Decembers, I guess they missed the cold snap at Christmas in Texas, where of course wind power collapsed for a day or so.
“CAGW” was the meme this mess started with. People noticed it wasn’t warming where they lived.
Then “Climate Change” became the meme.
For sometime now to support the memes they switch back and forth between both memes.
It’s a hot day. “SEE! Global Warming! This is the proof!”
It’s a cold day. “SEE! Climate Change (caused by CAGW)! This is the proof!”
The average person ask a question and there’re referred to what they can’t or don’t know how to check for themselves.
Remember, weather is not climate. Unless it’s a bad weather. Honk! 🤡
Last year temperatures where I live in North Wales, UK didn’t get above 18C until July. Maybe global warming is leading to cooler summers!
Here’s the ‘tell’. Gavin Schmidt (NASA’s climate modeler) last year, stated that models are “… running a way too hot and we don’t know why” (try to to find a link to this now!! Google has buried it under multiple layers). Gavin’s admission was made following the famous forecast for global warming that proved 300% higher than observations. This was with the backdrop of almost two decades of “The Dreaded Pause” in warming and the skulduggery of Climategate.
Also, the “Pause” was ‘ended’ by an el Niño, which gave little respite. As soon as it was over we began a new pause, now wracking up over 8yrs and counting. Gavin’s plaint was clearly out of fear that we may be slipping into a 30yr cooling period (predicted by several sceptics from the 60-70yr natural observed undulation in temperatures and even mentioned by Jim Hansen a few years ago.)
This is the reason for the rising protesteth-too-much hysteria among consensus climate scientists, wildly clutching at every warm or cold day, naming every breeze and water spout, highlighting global warming’s frigid Februaries (without mention of the global cooling of whole years since 2015).
“Update (EW): Willis points out Februaries are actually getting warmer.”
The authors of the study would no doubt say “That’s perfectly consistent with our conclusions.” I’ve seen it happen before.
“Weather whiplash…” brings more bum cyclowns.
Since the middle of astronomical winter occurs around the 4th February it should hardly surprise anyone that the month of February is likely to be cold, especially as northern hemisphere days are still far shorter than nights and will be so until the Equinox in late March. There is also the lapse factor present in temperature trends due to expected time of year weather systems with potential for both misleading presence and absence of signs of spring. These are the long term meteorological facts that tend to go over the heads of buffoons infesting the contemporary climate scientists. English folklore is riddled with much better prognostic verse than any alarmist could ever dream about.
Of course meteorologists now see February as the last month of winter in the meteorological mess they have made of Nature’s seasons. Winter according to them now contains December, January & February, despite most of December being the last of autumn and occasionally warm enough to believe it. Technology and its use have never been strong points of our Met Office which is the reason they have seasons that differ from Nature’s own. But the Met Office staff would never own up to having been less than computer literate.
Many contemporary meteorologists also seem incapable of understanding the natural overlaps there are to the changing seasons in the astronomical calendar with its references to sudden changing and turbulent weather conditions, especially so one month before and one month after the Equinoxes. The middle month of winter is the month that sets the trend. February plays this role during its last seven days and the first few weeks of, still in winter, March.
If contemporary meteorology was not such a botch job to satisfy the Met Office’s climate change agenda then we could make more sense of what data we have as it was at the time of record. As it is there’s no chance of any sense coming from most of our idol worshipping virtue signalling meteorologists who get richer just by dishonestly following the set agenda after receiving due payment. If only the rail workers et al had it that simple.
Surely the last desperate defense of the theology.
The must be selling PHDs very cheaply nowadays, judging by these clowns!
He has an N of 43 Februaries all with different ENSO states and he thinks he can spot a trend. What a clown.
Not all idiots are PhDs, but these two did the work and got the certificate. You have to appreciate the effort.
See also: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/02/03/cooling-is-warming-climate-hoaxters-panic-as-us-freezes-media-provides-cover/
Nothing beats plain “Credo Quia Absurdum Est”.