The Week That Was: 2023-01-28 (January 28, 2023)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “I don’t know what’s the matter with people: they don’t learn by understanding; they learn by some other way—by rote or something. Their knowledge is so fragile!” — Richard Feynman
Number of the Week: 31 years
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: TWTW will discuss the following issues: SEPP submitted comments to the US Global Change Research Program on the draft of the latest National Climate Assessment (NCA5). Interestingly, many on the staff of NCA5 are representatives of NOAA at North Carolina State University. Although SEPP expects nothing will come of its comments, we presented good scientific points for the record.
Jordan Peterson has an engaging interview of Steven Koonin about the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports and similar matters. A University professor at NYU, Koonin has served as the Department of Energy’s Under Secretary for Science, as Chief Scientist for BP, and as professor and Provost at Caltech. He is a member of the National Academy of Sciences, a Governor of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, a senior fellow of Stanford’s Hoover Institution, and a Trustee of the Institute for Defense Analyses. Koonin holds a BS in physics from Caltech and a Ph.D. in theoretical physics from MIT. He wrote: Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, and Why It Matters, previously reviewed in TWTW.
Tom Nelson has a thought-provoking interview of AMO physicist Howard Hayden “The IPCC does NOT apply the Stefan-Boltzmann law to their results” This goes directly to the false claims by some global climate modelers that their models are based on first principles of physics. This means that they assert their models are based on basic laws of physics where nothing is assumed. As discussed in last week’s TWTW review of Tim Palmer’s book, this is not true. Increasing water vapor is not doubling the temperature impact of carbon dioxide.
One topic in the NCA5 that SEPP did not address is its section on agriculture which invoked the fear of famine. This is discussed and the contradictory evidence is presented.
Jennifer Marohasy presented evidence that the Australian Bureau of Meteorology is recording high temperatures without using procedures that meet the standards required by the UN World Meteorological Organization when the Bureau replaced mercury bulb instruments with fast recording probes.
In a column in the Wall Street Journal, Bjorn Lomborg responded to personal attacks about polar bears. His response is discussed on several blogs.
Paul Homewood exposes Covering Climate Now, an organization promoting fear of climate change. It may explain why so many misleading stories appear almost simultaneously in many publications.
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Ignoring the Need for Evidence: SEPPs comments on NCA5 are summarized below:
“Stated are some of the reasons why the Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) considers the NCA5 inadequate for meeting the stated public purpose. In summary, the USGCRP fails in its mandate to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change for the following reasons:
Point one is covered by the essay by Ian Plimer in the Jan 14 TWTW. Point two is covered by the reports by John Christy and his testimonies to the US Congress. Point three is covered by Roy Spencer’s monthly reports of atmospheric temperature trends in TWTW, and the UAH monthly reports. Points 4 and 5 are presented below:
Ignores Independent Measurements of the Greenhouse Effect: Using over 50 years of atmospheric measurements from spectroscopic instruments on weather balloons, the HITRAN database can be used to directly calculate the greenhouse effects of major greenhouse gases. The database has been discussed in numerous peer-reviewed scientific papers that NCA5 does not consider.
Professors van Wijngaarden (University of York) and Happer (Princeton) used the HITRAN database to calculate the relatively potency of various greenhouse gas molecules and their concentration with altitude. They write:
“Radiation transfer in the cloud-free atmosphere is controlled by the temperature T = T(z) at the altitude z. Fig. 1 [not shown here] shows the midlatitude atmospheric temperature profile. The atmosphere was divided into 5 layers each having constant lapse rate. We characterize the temperature profile with six breakpoints, with temperatures θα = [288.7, 217.2, 217.2, 229.2, 271.2, 187.5] in units of Kelvins at altitudes ζα = [0, 11, 20, 32, 47, 86] in km, where α = 0, 1, …, 5. Each of the 5 atmospheric layers was further subdivided into 100 sublayers. [Boldface added]
“The standard concentrations for the ith greenhouse gas, C {i} sd , based on observations [6, 15, 16], are shown as functions of altitude on the right of Fig. 1. The sea level concentrations for 2020 were estimated to be 7,750 ppm of H2O, 1.8 ppm of CH4, 0.32 ppm of N2O and 10 ppt of SF6. The O3 concentration peaks at 7.8 ppm at an altitude of 35 km, while the concentrations of CO2 and CF4 were 400 ppm and 86 ppt respectively, at all altitudes. Integrating the concentrations over an atmospheric column having a cross sectional area of 1 cm2 yields the column number density of the ith type of molecule Nˆ {i} sd listed in Table 1.” (not included here)
This figure shows that the concentration of water vapor drops rapidly with altitude in the troposphere, unlike CO2 which is constant. The drop in concentration of water vapor corresponds with the drop in temperature in the troposphere, the well-established lapse rate of temperature. Note that the HITRAN database permitted Prof. Wijngaarden and Happer to divide the troposphere, 8 to 14 km, into 500 sublayers – a degree of precision that is impossible in the ensemble procedure used in global climate models.
For global climate models, a typical grid for the entire atmosphere has vertical grids as few as 2 to as many as about 20. Typical global models have a horizontal grid spacing of about 500 km (300 miles). Most global models have resolution too coarse to recognize the Great Lakes, and some ignore the Florida peninsula. With such coarse resolution, the models do not embody the atmospheric temperature lapse rate that has been known for over 50 years.
Palmer describes how climate modeling has run strongly into diminishing returns. As computer power increases, grid layers are added or grid boxes made smaller, but the return on the effort is rapidly becoming smaller. This limit is largely ignored by those supporting the modeling community, however it indicates that a new approach is needed, such as the one being used by Wijngaarden and Happer. Using HITRAN, they are able to calculate an upper bound for warming due to a doubling of carbon dioxide using fixed relative humidity. That number is about 1.4 C, far less than the average found in NCA5.” [Boldface added]
“Ignores Basic Physics: The Stefan-Boltzmann law is well established and widely used in physics and engineering. It is the law upon which all infrared thermometers work. It states that the radiation emitted from the surface of an object in space is equal to a constant times the temperature in Kelvin raised to the fourth power. It is amazing, yet true, that the IPCC, upon whose musings NCA5 relies, has never applied this important law to their predicted temperatures. Had they done so, they would immediately see the absurdity of their results: the predicted temperatures lead to surface radiation far in excess of the predicted ability of the greenhouse gases to restrain it. There can be no excuse for NCA5 to ignore this important IPCC failure.” [Boldface added]
The bulk of the staff listed in NCA5 are representatives of NOAA. We expect that the ideologically driven staff will not make any effort to make necessary changes to NCA5 to have it conform to physical evidence. Essentially NCA5 involves an imaginary atmosphere barely related to that of Earth. See link under Defending the Orthodoxy.
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Complex Problems: In a wide-ranging interview conducted by Jordan Peterson, Steven Koonin discusses what he has learned in his varied career. He spent 5 years as chief scientist at BP, a large part of it learning what many academics do not understand about the petroleum industry. Although this experience is used by critics to accuse him of being a shill for the industry, Koonin knows things about the industry the critics fail to realize, including its enormous scale. To think Europe and North America can easily replace fossil fuels with power from wind and solar is preposterous.
Also, Koonin learned that the industry is about making money legally and predictably. Reliability is key, and it is far more difficult than just balancing equations. Getting rid of chemical fuels is difficult, no matter what the popular press claims. Making chemical fuels from biological sources is extremely difficult. The cost of breaking down cellulose is daunting and little progress is being made.
Germany is discovering some of the difficulties of replacing fossil fuels with wind and solar. They have a term for the problem which translates to “dark stillness” which is to be expected from wind and solar power. Simply, wind and solar can be supplemental, but it cannot be the backbone of a modern electrical grid. Germany ignored scientific and technological-economic realities.
The North American standard for grid reliability is one day of failure every ten years (99.97% reliability). Wind and solar cannot hope to match it. For other than hydro or nuclear power, we must choose two of three characteristics: reliable, affordable, or non-CO2 emitting? If we go heavily into unreliable systems. such as wind and solar, for a continuous supply of electricity, two parallel systems are needed. How do you compensate the system that is not being employed? Climate and energy are complex, nuanced subjects for which soundbites do not work.
Koonin asks what is the morality of denying 6.5 billion people access to affordable energy which about 1.5 billion people enjoy.
In addressing the claims arising from IPCC reports, Koonin discusses that since 1900 the globe has warmed about 1.3°C. We have seen the greatest improvement in human betterment ever seen. Per capita GDP has gone up by 7, longevity up from 32 years to 72 years, literacy up, extreme poverty down. Another 1.3°C increase will not reverse the progress we have made. The notion of a climate catastrophe is nonsense. It is not based on data in the IPCC reports.
What do the IPCC reports actually say? They cannot find trends in the data – storms, sea level rise, etc. The reports concentrate on human induced climate change and largely ignore natural changes. If one compares summaries with actual reports – there is a huge disconnect. The disconnect grows with reporting, politicians, etc. No reason to ring alarm bells.
Koonin goes into the benefits of adding CO2 to the atmosphere. Plants do not lose water as rapidly – there has been a 40% increase in greening the earth since the 1980s. Agriculture yields are greater. These factors are far more important to humanity than climate change.
In discussing mass extinctions that are now being claimed even by geologists, Koonin asks how well have they reproduced the past? This question highlights why TWTW considers the scales of time discussed by Ian Plimer important. If you don’t understand the past, you cannot reliably forecast the future. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science.
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Standards of Failing: Tom Nelson’s interview of Atomic, Molecular, and Optical (AMO) physicist Howard Hayden begins with Hayden explaining that he tries to keep all energy discussions in standardized units meaning international system units – joules. (one kilowatt hour (kWh) a measure of consumption is equal to 3,600,000 joules).
Since its second assessment report (SAR, 1995), the IPCC has produced heat balance charts of the globe. But it has produced no heat balance charts for any of its predictions for any of its models. It can’t, because using the Stefan-Boltzmann law, its forecasts produce absurd results with increases in surface emission far exceeding the predicted radiative forcing needed to block them.
If the surface increases by 3°C, then the Stefan-Boltzmann law says the surface emissions increase by 16.7 W/m2. According to the IPCC a likely range 2°C to 5°C, then Stefan-Boltzmann law says surface emissions must increase by 11.1 to 28.1 W/m2. The Sixth Assessment Report (AR6, 2021) is the first to mention the Stefan-Boltzmann law explicitly. AR 6 states adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere will increase greenhouse blocking by greenhouse gases by 3.7 W/m2 – totally inconsistent with the claimed increase in temperatures. The IPCC is dealing with an imaginary atmosphere. See Ignores Basic Physics above, and link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Staggering Agricultural Increase: Although the US Department of Agriculture participates in NCA5, it ignores the staggering increase in farm productivity since 1900, when about 40% of the US workforce was directly involved in agriculture. Today, it is less than 2%. This decrease results from replacing working farm animals (estimated by to 21.6 million in 1900) with more efficient and lower maintenance equipment such as tractors, developing high bred and GMO crops, use of manufactured fertilizer, etc.. Those who dream of a simpler life on the farm never experienced rural poverty on a cold, winter morning with no running water and flush toilets. Writing in India, Vijay Javaraj gives an indication of the transformation that is occurring there and in the developing world, which environmentalists wish to stop. See link under Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine and https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/44197/13566_eib3_1_.pdf
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Quality Control: Jennifer Marohasy asserts that:
“Available Australian Bureau of Meteorology parallel maximum temperature data for Mildura – temperatures recorded from both a mercury thermometer and a platinum resistant probe on the same day in the same shelter – show no equivalence. They are different,”
The Bureau has made many replacements without noting the difference in instruments. The platinum resistance probes record almost instantaneously while mercury bulb thermometers require a few minutes. A few minutes can be a major difference when recording daily high temperatures. This is but one example of the need for standardization periods when instruments are replaced. Such standardization periods are generally ignored by those reporting surface temperatures. Roy Spencer and John Christy have carefully maintained records when satellite instruments are changed or appear to make unusual recordings of atmospheric temperature trends. See links under Measurement Issues – Surface and Litigation Issues.
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Real Polar Bear Numbers? Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Bjorn Lomborg stated that polar bear numbers are increasing. So called “fact checkers” personally criticized his research. Separately, the issue is discussed well by Paul Homewood and Susan Crockford. It appears that “fact checkers” don’t know where to find facts. See links under Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
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News Blasts: Questionable “facts” are quickly spread by the modern media. Paul Homewood has found one organization partially responsible: Covering Climate Now. Its website states:
“We help our news media colleagues cover the defining story of our time with the rigor and urgency it deserves.”
“Co-founded by the Columbia Journalism Review and The Nation in association with The Guardian and WNYC in 2019, CCNow’s 460-plus partners include some of the biggest names in news, and some of the smallest, because this story needs everyone. In addition to three of the world’s biggest news agencies — Reuters, Bloomberg, and Agence France Presse — each of which provides content to thousands of other newsrooms, our partners include CBS News, NBC and MSNBC News, Noticias Telemundo, PBS NewsHour, Univision, Al Jazeera; most of the biggest public radio stations in the US; many flagship newspapers and TV networks in the Americas, Europe, and Asia; and dozens of leading magazines and journals, including Nature, Scientific American, Rolling Stone, HuffPost, Teen Vogue, and Mother Jones.”
“Under partners, Institutions:
American Geophysical Union & Eos Magazine; Climate Central & Climate Matters George Mason University; Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy; MIT Environmental Solutions Initiative; Princeton University; UC Berkeley’s Graduate School of Journalism; The Lancet Countdown on Climate Change and Health”
Separately, Robert Bryce discusses the Climate Imperative Foundation which he terms as:
“the newest and richest anti-hydrocarbon, anti-natural gas group you’ve never heard of.”
He identifies the four individuals who fund the foundation heavily. What people do with their money is their business, except when they try to persuade people to think and act differently. A century ago, Andrew Carnegie gave a fortune to libraries to help people to learn and think independently, dispelling myths. Today, it appears some philanthropists are giving fortunes to promote group think, expanding myths. See links under Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda and Funding Issues
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Beyond Groupthink: The 15th Climate Change Conference by The Heartland Institute will be held from February 23 to 25, 2023, at the Hilton Lake Buena Vista in Orlando, Florida. It will feature over 40 speakers, including members of the SEPP Board of Directors, Willie Soon and David Legates. Tom Sheahen, Howard “Cork” Hayden, and Ken Haapala will address the question: “Is Climate Science Scientific?” (title may change) See https://climateconference.heartland.org/
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Number of the Week: 31 years It has taken the IPCC 31 years (from the first report, 1990 to AR6, 2021) to recognize the Stefan-Boltzmann law which is well established and widely used in physics and engineering. It is the law upon which all infrared thermometers work. It states that the radiation emitted from the surface of an object in space is equal to a constant times the temperature in Kelvin raised to the fourth power. And during this time the science has been settled? See Ignores Basic Physics, above and link under Challenging the Orthodoxy
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
Extraordinary Resignation by a Geology Professor: ‘I feel the profession…is no longer worthy of my efforts’
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jan 25, 2023
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Unsettled: Climate and Science | Dr. Steven Koonin
By Jordan Peterson, Via WUWT, Jan 17, 2023
Howard Hayden: “The IPCC does NOT apply the Stefan-Boltzmann law to their results”
By Tom Nelson, Podcast, Jan 10, 2022
#59 Howard Hayden: “the IPCC does NOT apply the Stefan-Boltzmann law to their results” – YouTube
Time for an eye exam
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 25, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Summary of the controversy regarding the “Iris Effect” as expressed by Richard Lindzen in his interview by Jordan Paterson.]
Demystifying “greenhouse gas” claims – Part 3
By Fred F. Mueller, No Tricks Zone, Jan 27, 2023
“Measurements Show Cloud Effects Are Real, Far Stronger Than Effects Of “Greenhouse Gases”
Temperatures Are Not Becoming More Extreme
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 21, 2023
In Honor of Fred Singer
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Jan 25, 2023
Defending the Orthodoxy
Third Order Draft of the Fifth National Climate Assessment (NC5)
By Staff, The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), Nov 7, 2022
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Geologists’ Turn in Anti-Science Barrel
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Jan 28, 2023
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Is the ozone hole really healing?
By David Whitehouse, Net Zero Watch, Jan 25, 2023
“Claims by a UN-backed panel of experts that the ozone layer is healing and on track to full recovery may be premature and over-optimistic, Net Zero Watch’s science editor, Dr David Whitehouse, has warned.”
Why Is Antarctica’s Climate Considered ‘Global’ But Arctic Siberia’s Is Not?
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Jan 26, 2023
The Copper Conundrum
By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, Jan 24, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Will the 2030s be the decade of the great copper panic?]
Are You Really Against Fossil Fuels? Read This Before You Answer
By Vijay Jayaraj, Real Clear Energy, Jan 24, 2023
Climate Change: “We Have Met The Enemy, And He Is Us.”
By Fred Lipfert, ACSH, Jan 18, 2023
“Here I estimate the longitudinal relationships of global mean temperature with population, CO2 emissions, ambient CO2, and gross domestic product (GDP) using 50 years of published annual data.”
After Paris!
Andrew Bolt On Davos
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 23, 2023
Video “When people start laughing at you, it’s over!”
[SEPP Comment: For this anointed group of people?]
Change in US Administrations
Joe Biden’s Opposition to Natural Gas Hits Home
By Ben Lieberman, Real Clear Energy, Jan 24, 2023
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
No trees in Davos
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 25, 2023
“While we’re opening cans of carbon-neutral worms here, the idea that plant food kills plants is part of a curious tendency of environmental radicals to become anti-nature.”
Seeking a Common Ground
Climate Debate UK
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 22, 2023
Measurement Issues — Surface
Hyping Maximum Daily Temperatures (Part 2)
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Jan 24, 2023
“Available Australian Bureau of Meteorology parallel maximum temperature data for Mildura – temperatures recorded from both a mercury thermometer and a platinum resistant probe on the same day in the same shelter – show no equivalence. They are different,”
Jolly Odd what: Sydney Observatory record cold spell broken with help from AWOL solar panel?
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 23, 2023
Latest Mean Annual Temperature Data Show Tokyo Has Been Cooling For Decades!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 25, 2023
Iceland’s “Coldest December for 50 years”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 23, 2023
Changing Weather
California: Atmospheric river and misguided climate fear
Opinion by Steve Goreham, Washington Examiner, Jan 23, 2023
Near-Record High Atmospheric Pressure Followed by the Big Chill [US Northwest]
If you feel some pressure in your forehead today, there may be a cause.
Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Jan 26, 2023
“This uber-high pressure has been suppressing water levels, resulting in the high tides at Seattle being far less than would have occurred under normal pressure…”
Record Cold In China
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 23, 2023
““The temperature in Mohe, a city in northern China’s Heilongjiang province, dropped to -53C (-63.4F) on Jan. 22…”
[SEPP Comment: Probably the threat of global warming will not sell well there this week.]
Changing Climate
Warmth Limits For Tree Growth Affirm Austria Was 4-7°C Warmer Than Today 2000 Years Ago
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Jan 23, 2023
link to latest paper: New subfossil findings of wisent (Bos bonasus) in caves of the Northern Calcareous Alps (Upper Austria)
By Teresa Schaer, et al, Museum Burg Golling, Sep 9, 2022
http://www.museumgolling.at/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/9_Schaer_Wisent_published.pdf
From abstract: “Since they [European bison (wisent)] needed deciduous plants in their nutrition the restricted occurrence between 1,400 and 2,000 m above sea level indicates warmer temperatures from the Neolithic time to the Early Middle Age than today.”
Changing Seas
Sea Level Update from Noosa National Park, Queensland Australia
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Jan 22, 2023
Atmospheric Pressure Explains a Wimpy King Tide Plus Cold Air Ahead
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Jan 22, 2023
“Normal pressure at sea level is approximately 1013 hPa (hPa is the metric unit of pressure).
“This week the pressure is forecast to be around 1030-1035 hPa!
“Such high pressure will reduce the high tide by roughly 7 inches.”
Peruvian sea levels: IPCC vs the ocean
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 25, 2023
How are Earth’s islands being impacted by rising sea levels?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 25, 2023
From the CO2Science Archive:
“In light of these several findings, Ford and Kench thus rightly conclude that ‘governments of small island nations need to acknowledge that island shorelines are highly dynamic and islands have persisted and in many cases grown in tandem with sea level rise.’”
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Antarctica Putting Brakes On Global Sea Level Rise! And: ‘World Climate News’ Makes Debut
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 24, 2023
“New climate science videos now in English – made in Germany: ‘World Climate News’ YouTube channel.”
Antarctica’s Missing Warming: Japanese Syowa Station Shows Cooling Since 1977
By P Gosselin, Chart by Mrs. Heller, a.k.a. Kirye, Jan 20, 2023
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Here’s Why The World Is Producing More Food
By Vijay Jayaraj, The Daily Caller, Jan 21, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Evidence means nothing to zealots. Does it to the Department of Agriculture?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Media’s Misuse Of Scary New Weather Terms
By William D. Balgord, WND Guest Columnist, Jan 22, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Ross Clark Challenges Climate Hysteria
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 25, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Updated, The 97% Consensus Myth
By John Robson, Climate Discussion, Jan 1, 2023
Video, John Robson
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
Partisan ‘Fact Checkers’ Spread Climate-Change Misinformation-Bjorn Lomborg
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 27, 2023
“You will recall that Agence France-Presse (AFP) are signed up Partners of the Covering Climate Now organization, committed to making sure the public don’t get the real facts on climate.”
Lomborg responds to polar bear abundance challenge
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Jan 27, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Meet The Organization Behind The Media’s Climate Hysteria
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 26, 2023
Link to website: Covering Climate Now
By Staff, Accessed Jan 27, 2023
Expanding the Orthodoxy
No Matter Your View on Climate Change, Pricing CO2 Is Harmful… Why?
By Lars Schernikau, WTWT, Jan 27, 2023
One-sentence answer: … because pricing one externality but not others lead to economic and environmental distortions… causing human suffering.
[SEPP Comment: Are the effects of lithium and cobalt mining and processing harmful?]
Questioning European Green
Gas-Fired Power Is Now Cheaper Than Offshore Wind Again
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 27, 2023
[SEPP Comment: In the value of electricity, price is secondary to reliability.]
Questioning Green Elsewhere
The Energy Transition Confronts Reality
By Daniel Yergin, Project Syndicate, Jan 23, 2023 [H/t R. Clutz]
Funding Issues
When the New Right Meets the Old Left on ESG
Anti-market ideology is a growing presence among some conservatives.
By Rupert Darwall, Real Clear Energy, Jan 23, 2023
“Entirely missing from Krein’s account [Editor of American Affairs] of ESG is any notion of beneficiaries. Trust law, statutes such as Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA), and the courts require fiduciaries to act in the sole financial interests of beneficiaries. This mandate is anathema to collectivists of all stripes who want access to trillions of dollars of retirees’ capital to pursue public-policy objectives purportedly necessary for societal improvement and bringing harmony between people and planet.”
The Billionaires Behind The Gas Bans
The hypocrisy of the billionaires who are funding anti-hydrocarbon campaigns, including bans on gas stoves. Natural gas bans are more about class than climate change.
By Robert Bryce, His Blog, Jan 26, 2023
Bob Ward v Nigel Farage
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 22, 2023
“Part of their funding comes from Jeremy Grantham, but there is also a large dollop of taxpayers’ money involved, amounting to over £6 million last year, as well as EU funding and grants from far left American foundations, such as ECF, Rockefeller, and Climate Works:”
“The climate scam is big business!”
Governor Ron DeSantis Further Prohibits Woke ESG Considerations from State Investments
Press Release, Ron DeSantis, Jan 17, 2023
“Permanently prohibiting State Board of Administration (SBA) fund managers from considering ESG factors when investing the state’s money.
“Requiring SBA fund managers to only consider maximizing the return on investment on behalf of Florida’s retirees.”
The Political Games Continue
It’s not the politics
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 25, 2023
“It would be a serious error to underestimate politicians’ capacity for glib and self-satisfied error.
“As so often, our problem isn’t a plot by hucksters seeking money, power or both. It’s misplaced zealotry on the part of arrogant people.”
Governing is Ardern she thought
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 25, 2023
“Those who thought her a star, or a saint, because she sounded good lamented that she had left because she still sounds good. But the truth is that she got nothing done, not even emissions reductions, because she didn’t know how the world works.”
Litigation Issues
Hyping Maximum Daily Temperatures (Part 3)
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Jan 28, 2023
“The Bureau cannot know the exact amount because the mercury thermometer was removed at the same time the probe was installed at the weather station at Cape Otway lighthouse. The mercury thermometer that was removed on 15th April 1994 had been faithfully used to measure maximum temperatures at Cape Otway lighthouse since 1865 – for 129 years.”
[SEPP Comment: Incompetence by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology or deliberate deceit?]
The ExxonMobil Papers
By Leonard Hyman & William Tilles, Oil Price.com, Jan 25, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Fails to address the important issue: How much of an increase in temperatures will result from a doubling of CO2 (from China)?]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Norwegian Shipping Company Bans Electrified Vehicles Over Fire Fears
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 23, 2023
“Norway’s Havila Krystruten is one of two shipping companies that sails between the coastal cities of Bergen and Kierkenes and says that it will no longer carry electric or electrified vehicles on its ships following the results of an external investigation.”
[SEPP Comment: And thanks to huge tax subsidies EVs are selling extremely well in Norway.]
National Grid ready to pay customers to cut energy use as cold weather continues
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 23, 2023
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA plans to stop 6 power plants from dumping toxic coal ash into unlined ponds
By Ella Nilsen, CNN, Jan 25, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Will the EPA approve new, lined ponds?]
Then they came for your gas stove
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 25, 2023
Energy Issues – Non-US
Ross Clark: The National Grid is falling apart thanks to Net Zero
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 24, 2023
Energy Security Was The Most Important Topic In 2022
By Alex Kimani, Oil Price.com. Jan 19, 2023
Mineral Privatization for the Masses: Remembering Guillermo Yeatts (1937–2018)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Jan 23, 2023
Energy Issues — US
About Clean Energy Crisis
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Jan 24, 2023
In Pennsylvania, Will Josh Shapiro Unlock Decades of Affordable Energy?
By Gordon Tomb, Real Clear Energy, Jan 22, 2023
Washington’s Control of Energy
America Needs the Willow Project – The Biden Administration Should Approve It
By Clarence ‘Bud’ Albright, Real Clear Energy, Jan 26, 2023
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
What Has Been the Role of Petroleum in Human Progress? (Part IV)
By Julián Salazar Velásquez, Master Resource, Jan 27, 2023
“I have two options: to remain silent in the last years of my life and witness the destruction of the world economy, as just happened in Venezuela. Or alert many to the threat to blessed living to avoid a repeat of destruction. In clear conscience, I opt for the second!”
Last of four parts:
Global Oil & Gas Discoveries Up, As Drilling Continues Apace
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 24, 2023
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Evidence says offshore wind development is killing lots of whales
By David Wojick, CFACT, Jan 23, 2023
Big wind turbines wearing out faster
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, Jan 24, 2023
[SEPP Comment; Analyzing the data.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Affordable electric cars ‘not viable’–Kia Boss
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 23, 2023
Electric Cars: Square Peg, Round Hole
By Duggan Flanakin, Real Clear Energy, Jan 24, 2023
Electric Vehicles Are an Ideologically Driven Economic Misadventure
By Jerome Corsi, American Thinker, Jan 27, 2023
Firefighters Concerned About EV Fires
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 22, 2023
California Dreaming
California City Gives Up On 100% Renewable Plan
By Julianne Geiger, Oil Price.com, Jan 20, 2023
[SEPP Comment: The public does not like “Smart Choice” energy bills?]
Mirror Mirrow on the Wall, Who’s at Fault for California’s High Energy Costs?
By Ronald Stein, The Heartland Institute, Jan 25, 2023
Environmental Industry
Formerly Respected Organizations; Now Just Foot Soldiers Of Leftist Orthodoxy Enforcement
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Jan 22, 2023
[SEPP Comment: The Appalachian Mountain Club opposes CO2, plant food?]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
How Your Cup Of Coffee Contributes To Climate Change
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 20, 2023
From the people who plan to control the weather
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 25, 2023
“As governments around the world rely on ‘settled science’ and fanciful economics to redesign everything and have it work marvelously, it is sobering to read that ‘The City of Hamilton says it has uncovered another sewage leak that has been dumping waste into Lake Ontario for more than two decades, with the mayor saying they will continue to search for other leaks underground.’ Another leak? Oh yes. ‘The revelation comes after the city reported in November that a leak discovered to be from 1996 had dumped 337 million liters of sewage into the Hamilton harbor in the 26 years it went undetected.’”
Memo to Minions: You will be allowed to eat crickets to save the climate says EU
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 27, 2023
“The headline is a PsyOp all on its own. You didn’t know you were not allowed to eat crickets and powdered mealworm larvae before. Rejoice in a freedom won:
“Europeans now also allowed to eat cricket powder and small mealworms.”
[SEPP Comment: As long as they are not GMOs?]
Vegan menu leaves Cambridge council with leftovers
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 26, 2023
ARTICLES
1. Investors Plow Into Renewables, but Projects Aren’t Getting Built
Potential $40 billion spending spree for renewable-energy projects hits slowdown in wind and solar installations
By Jennifer Hiller, WSJ, Jan 22, 2023
TWTW Summary: The article begins:
Even as developers plan an unprecedented number of grid-scale wind and solar installations, project construction is plummeting across the U.S.
Despite billions of dollars in federal tax credits up for grabs and investors eager to fund clean energy projects, the pace of development has ground to a crawl and many renewables plans face an uncertain path to completion. Supply-chain snags, long waits to connect to the grid and challenging regulatory and political environments across the country are contributing to the slowdown, analysts and companies say.
New wind installations plunged 77.5% in the third quarter of 2022 versus the same period the year before, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. New utility-scale solar installations likely fell 40% in 2022 compared with 2021, according to a report from the Solar Energy Industries Association and research firm Wood Mackenzie.
The decline belies enormous demand for renewable projects. The industry is ready to launch a would-be building spree after last year’s spending and climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act, extended and increased tax credits for wind and solar projects and introduced new incentives for green hydrogen and battery storage for the electric grid. The success of the IRA, the Biden administration’s climate targets and many state decarbonization plans hinge on adding massive amounts of renewable energy into the grid.
More than $40 billion in wind, solar and battery projects were announced in three months late last year—as much as the total clean-energy investment for all of 2021, according to the industry group American Clean Power Association. Large corporations with climate targets are among the most eager buyers of green power, contracting for enough wind and solar capacity last year to power more than 1,000 data centers.
After repeating claims by renewable proponents, the article continues:
“Efforts to create a domestic solar supply chain to meet U.S. project demand are expected to take a few years. Meanwhile, panel imports, 80% of which come from Chinese and other Asian makers, have slowed following U.S. legislation aimed at cracking down on labor abuses in China. Several thousand shipping containers of solar panels have been detained by U.S. Customs near ports such as Los Angeles, according to some estimates.
“The wind industry has struggled to overcome pandemic-related supply-chain and logistics challenges in delivering its massive equipment, but uncertainty over the details of federal tax policy has been a significant factor slowing installations. Companies are waiting on Treasury Department guidance to outline the specifics of how a project can qualify for tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act.
“Even in battery storage, an industry which saw more installations in 2022, supply-chain problems have slowed some construction plans by as much as a year, developers say.
“A bigger unknown is the time and cost to get new batteries or solar or wind farms connected to the grid, as grid operators and interconnecting utilities must study the projects’ likely impact on the power system and any needed network upgrades before signing off on them.
“Grid operators have been overwhelmed by requests, and several are trying to overhaul their processes. There were around 8,100 projects in line in the U.S. in 2021, up from 5,600 in 2020, each requiring a technical review. Interconnection wait times rose to about 3.7 years for projects delivered between 2011 and 2021, up from around 2.1 years for projects built in the decade prior, according to a study last year by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.”
After discussing inflation, the article concludes”
“Just 23% of the power-generation projects seeking grid connection from 2000 to 2016 were ultimately built. Completion rates were even lower for wind, at 20%, and solar at 16%. Around 19 gigawatts of wind and more than 60 gigawatts of solar were withdrawn from interconnection processes in 2020 and 2021, according to the national lab.
“The certainty of securing local permits also varies market by market, even within the same state, along with the willingness of a community to welcome large renewable energy projects, Mr. Rand said.” [A senior engineering associate with Lawrence Berkeley]
“Ignoring the Need for Evidence”
I would argue in many cases the evidence is manufactured according to need. Need we mention the Mannian hockey stick and those, like Marcott and Gergis, who followed in that once rich and fertile furrow?
When you have an unstated aim as the global elites clearly do, you have to closely control and manipulate to weave the narrative. The teachings of Josep Goebbels did not die in 1945.
“An explosive new report reveals that the British state waged a sinister surveillance campaign against critics of lockdown.
“…the alarming lengths the UK government went to in order to hush up its critics. We now know that three government bodies, including a shady Ministry of Defence unit tasked with fighting ‘information warfare’, surveilled and monitored UK citizens, public figures and media outlets who criticised the lockdown – and spiked was caught up in that net.
This mini Ministry of Truth was composed of the Rapid Response Unit (RRU) in the Cabinet Office, the Counter Disinformation Unit (CDU) in the Department for Culture, Media and Sport and the army’s 77th Brigade. The 77th Brigade exists to monitor and counter so-called disinformation being spread by adversarial foreign powers. But, as a whistleblower from the unit told Big Brother Watch, ‘the banner of disinformation was a guise under which the British military was being deployed to monitor and flag our own concerned citizens’. The other bodies worked together to monitor ‘harmful narratives online’ and to push back on them, by promoting government lines in the press and by flagging posts to social-media companies in order to have them removed.”
https://www.spiked-online.com/2023/01/29/warning-sharing-a-spiked-article-could-get-you-in-trouble-with-the-government/
https://bigbrotherwatch.org.uk/2023/01/inside-whitehalls-ministry-of-truth-how-secretive-anti-misinformation-teams-conducted-mass-political-monitoring/
When you control the vertical and the horizontal you can ignore pretty much anything.
Oh, WOW! The Outer Limit’s reference! Your age is showing!
Yes, I haven’t suffered the indoctrination that passes for a modern education
The work by Happer and Wijngaarden ignore the immediate negative feedback due to boundary layer equilibrium. This feedback removes nearly all the radiative forcing produced by the HITRAN model. Of course, the model cannot “see” this feedback, it’s mostly conduction and latent heat, and thus presents a false picture of the warming from increasing GHGs.
This is why Miskolczi 2010,2014 found almost no change in the greenhouse effect from the NOAA radiosonde data 1948-2008.
As I write this I am sitting waiting for a dock at the Johnson Matthew Corp . at 1000 Armand Hammer Blvd. in Pottstown, PA.
I am looking at two water cooling towers pouring out steam at the Limerick nuclear power station. Icons to the total ignorance of the press.
rah,
See if you can drive around to where the backlighting of the steam makes it look black so that you can submit a prize-winning photo to the local paper. Thanks!
“If the surface increases by 3°C, then the Stefan-Boltzmann law says the surface emissions increase by 16.7 W/m2. According to the IPCC a likely range 2°C to 5°C, then Stefan-Boltzmann law says surface emissions must increase by 11.1 to 28.1 W/m2. The Sixth Assessment Report (AR6, 2021) is the first to mention the Stefan-Boltzmann law explicitly. AR 6 states adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere will increase greenhouse blocking by greenhouse gases by 3.7 W/m2 – totally inconsistent with the claimed increase in temperatures. The IPCC is dealing with an imaginary atmosphere. See Ignores Basic Physics above, and link under Challenging the Orthodoxy”
This critizism is about NOT understanding the physics. If 2xCO2 forcing was 3.7W/m2 (it is not, but rather just 2W/m2), then this forcing applies to the photosphere, to the emission level so to say. If you further assumed a 3x feedback (again, wrong for other reasons) this figure would be enhanced to 3.7 x 3 = 11.1W/m2.
11.1W/m2 is still far less than 16.7W/m2, but that is not a problem. Back and forth radiation at the surface boundary layer is simply irrelevant. The 16.7W/m2 in additional surface emissions would almost entirely be offset by a similar large increase in “back radiation”, as both are a function of temperature INSTEAD OF CAUSING the temperature.
Falling back on the erroneous “back radiation” GHE will always cause such kind of confusion.
The galactic radiation diagram shows that the strength of the solar wind magnetic field is still weaker than in the previous solar cycle.
In this weeks space weather report, there were 11 solar flares, 26 coronal mass ejections, and no geomagnetic storms.
The lapse rate is dependent on the specific heat of air. Unless they recalculated the Cp of air for the higher ppm of CO2 at each of the five layers they are wrong.
And recalculated the higher mass of air with more CO2 molecules.