Fear, Flooding, Forecasting & Australia’s 2022 Official Rainfall Statistics

From Jennifer Marohasy’s Blog

Jennifer Marohasy

This year the Australian Bureau of Meteorology waited until after close of business on Friday 6th January 2023 to release the official climate statistics for 2022. After claims of unprecedented extreme rainfall all year, the statistics must be disappointing for those animated by the idea of a climate catastrophe:

Nationally averaged rainfall was [just] 25% above the 1961–1990 average at 582.2 mm, which makes 2022 [only] the ninth wettest on record for Australia.

It is the sixth wettest year for Eastern Australia, where there had been extensive flooding.

Flooding that the Climate Council relentlessly blamed through 2022 on climate change. The Council is headed by Tim Flannery who at the end of April 2007, when most of Australia remained in the grip of severe drought, hyped global warming by claiming our dams would never fill again. Last year they filled to overflowing – again.

Eastern Australia, situated to the immediate west of the southern Pacific Ocean, has always experienced cycles of drought or flood depending on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation which modulates global temperature and rainfall.

Farmers like my father always linked this cycle to changes in the declination of the Moon and there are now research papers explaining the phenomenon. For example, Jialin Lin & Taotao Qian’s ‘Switch Between El Nino and La Nina is Caused by Subsurface Ocean Waves Likely Driven by Lunar Tidal Forcing’ published in 2019 by Nature.

Wet years are usually cooler years in Australia though the BoM claims last year to have been 0.5 °C warmer than the 1961–1990 average. In fact, discounting for the new electronic probes that I have shown can record 0.4 °C warmer for the same weather and the industrial scale remodelling (the technical term is homogenisation) that strips away past cycles of warming and cooling to the extent that past temperatures are artificially cooled relative to the present, sometimes by almost 3.0 °C (yes that much!) – in reality, last year is likely to have been on average much cooler.

But what about the rainfall statistics? Are all 697 rainfall stations spread across the land mass of Australia actually used to calculate Australia’s average rainfall, and how reliable are the new electronic rainfall gauges?

According to the BoM’s newly released 2022 statistics, the wettest year on record for Eastern Australia is still officially 1950 with 1021 mm, followed by 2010 (1012 mm), then 1956 (986 mm). The 1970s were also wet, especially 1974 with 960 mm, and 1973 with 853 mm.

The official rainfall total for Eastern Australia, where there was so much flooding through 2022, is 819 mms – much less than I expected.

There had been images on television of families huddled on the roofs of homes in Lismore on the morning of 28th February 2022. Waters rose, first entering backdoors, then filling living rooms, then forcing families to hitch each other onto rooftops. Surely the rainfall in places like Lismore was unprecedented?

Many of the submissions to the NSW Flood Inquiry from the Lismore community blamed the new highway built across the floodplain, not the rain, for all the flooding. They explain that the highway acted as a dam stopping water from flowing away and downstream.

Official reports blamed global warming, and either incorrectly reported the 24-hour rainfall total for Lismore (they published 146 mm which is the total for the 24-hours to 24th February, not 28th February 2022) or the reports ignore this important statistic altogether because the official rainfall gauge in Lismore failed. Yes, failed on 28th February 2022. And the Bureau has failed to acknowledge anywhere that there were no measurements from this official rainfall gauge in Lismore from 27th February through until 22nd July 2022.

The Bureau has also failed to acknowledge that there is data available from an alternative rainfall gauge in Dawson Street Lismore that recorded 467 mm to 9am on 28th February. This record only exists as a screenshot taken by a concerned citizen reposted at my blog on 23rd August 2022.

What should be acknowledged as a new 24-hour rainfall record for Lismore of 467 mm on 28th February has not been entered into any of the official reports or into the official Australian Data Archive for Meteorology. It presumably is not therefore part of the data used to decide that 2022 was (only) the ninth wettest on record for Australia.

There was a Special Climate Statement 76 – Extreme rainfall and flooding in south-eastern Queensland and eastern New South Wales published by the BoM on 25th May 2022 replete with regional distribution maps of rainfall across broad geographic bands and with intervals of varying quantity, with the highest value of 200 mm to an unknown total amount (pg. 5). It claims that there has been an increasing trend in extreme hourly rainfall (pg.18) but no actual data is provided – the reference is to State of the Climate 2020. I’ve also been through that report. It provides no actual observational data, nor does it cite any peer-reviewed study.

There is no mention of the reliability of any of the data – temperature or rainfall – by the Climate Council. It can only be concluded that they care more about the narrative. A narrative that is intentionally about blame and frightening especially women and children into action. It might give purpose to the lives of activists like Tim Flannery but at an enormous cost to our children, many of whom are now chronically anxious about the weather.

I was woken on Friday morning at 4am to the sound of rain. Not soft, steady rain. More like a herd of buffalo pounding across my tin roof – intense rain here in Yeppoon, to the east of Rockhampton and to the west of the South Pacific, a vast body of water that reaches about halfway around the Earth. As a child who grew up in the tropics on a farm to the south of Darwin in the Northern Territory of Australia, I used to be reassured by the drumbeating of that intense rain. It signified the beginning of the monsoon and the end of the bushfire season. Now children are being taught to fear something as natural as heavy rain in northern and eastern Australia. The messaging on television has been relentless: rainfall is more intense now – we have a climate emergency. Fear of rainfall is increasing in Australia that is one of the driest continents on Earth.

Climate activist Mali Poppy Cooper, 22, made national headlines when she locked herself to the steering wheel of her car on the approach to a Sydney Harbour tunnel to protest all the flooding in Lismore. Terrible flooding. She was bailed on condition she get psychiatric help. There are stories emerging now of children who experience panic attacks every time it rains.

All through 2022 there was reporting and storytelling, now incorporated into the school curriculum, about how the intensity of the rainfall has increased at Lismore and other locations. Never mind that the new automatic rainfall gauge at Lismore failed and that other gauges in the flood zone show no increase in rainfall intensity or volume when considering the historical record back to at least 1900.

Back in May 2022, Chris Gillham and I made a submission to the NSW Flood Inquiry showing that for the 20 longest rainfall records for locations in the 2022 flood zone there has been no overall increase in the intensity or frequency of extremely wet days to 2021. The wettest year, measured as the year with the highest number of 99th percentile rainfall days by volume since 1900, is still 1974.

We have updated this report* to include the daily rainfall values to the end of 2022 and an additional 5 locations. Our analysis combines data from days with extreme rainfall and compares values since 1900 and for 25 locations both within the flood zones and south to the Sydney region which did indeed records its highest annual total rainfall during 2022. There is still no general trend of increasing rainfall intensity, and therefore it is nonsense to blame climate change for the 2022 flooding. The year 1974 remains the year of most intense rainfall, which was also a year of above average cyclone activity including the infamous Cyclone Tracy.

It is not only a fact that the volume and intensity of rainfall is not increasing, but neither are the number or intensity of cyclones crossing the Australian coastline. They have in fact been in decline since at least 1979, the first year from which we have reliable satellite data.

It was very wet in southeast Queensland through 2022. I was in Brisbane on 3rd March 2022 helping with the clean-up after the devastating flooding of that city.

The Brisbane city flood gauge reached 3.85 metres on the morning of 28th February 2022. This exceeds the major flood level mark but falls short of the 1974 and 2011 floods which reached 5.45 metres and 4.46m, respectively. The Brisbane city flood gauge record goes back to 1832, with the highest flood being recorded in 1841. There was also flooding in 1873 and 1893. According to Aboriginal legend the Brisbane floodplain was not a place for building humpies, yet the European settlers who followed have built a whole city.

The flooding of Brisbane in 1974 was predictable in that the SOI index was an incredibly high 31.6 in November 1973, showing an extraordinary pressure gradient across the South Pacific as measured between Tahiti and Darwin. I was fearful of flooding in late 2010 as the SOI was again very high, 27.1 in December 2010.

After the floods of 1974 the Wivenhoe dam was constructed to ensure Brisbane never flooded again.

Despite the very high SOI and warnings from the mayors of some regional councils and farmers interested in long range weather forecasting and lunar cycles, the Wivenhoe reservoir upstream of Brisbane – built for flood mitigation – was kept full of water because it was believed by the authorities that the ‘dams would never fill again’ because of climate change. They had heard Tim Flannery. The dam operators kept Wivenhoe brimming with water as we entered the 2010-2011 summer despite the high SOI values.

When the torrential rain began to fall, as it always does, and because Wivenhoe was so full of water already, the flooding of January 2011 has officially been documented as a ‘dam release flood’ caused by the emergency release of water. This from a dam originally built for flood mitigation following devastating flooding in 1974. If water levels in Wivenhoe had been reduced through 2010, there would have been no climate emergency.

A class action brought against the Queensland government and one of the dam operators found they were negligent in the way the dam was managed and awarded compensation to those that had suffered loss as a result. But no money has yet been awarded, in part because of subsequent appeals.

During the worst of the flooding last year, in 2022, the dam operators again kept releasing water causing the city of Brisbane to flood. However, this time the torrential rain had stopped. Water kept being released because the BoM incorrectly forecast that more – even worse – rain was imminent. Rain that never eventuated. Now the mantra is that it just keeps raining and the dams will inevitably overflow.

I have benchmarked the skill of the BoM’s simulation modelling for seasonal rainfall forecasting in a series of papers with John Abbot. Our research papers, published in international peer-reviewed journals, as conference papers and book chapters from 2012 to 2017, show that the rainfall forecasting methods developed over a period of 20 years by the BoM provide no significant improvement in forecast skill beyond just simply calculating a long-term average rainfall for the period in question. This is despite spending hundreds of millions of dollars on expensive computers and models that attempt to replicate atmospheric processes.

There are much better methods for seasonal rainfall forecasting that use statistical modelling coupled with the latest advances in machine learning. This is a method that John Abbot and I pioneered and that is detailed in those same scientific papers. The first of these papers was rejected by the BoM’s own publication series in 2012, but accepted and published by the Chinese Academy of Science (Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Volume 29, Number 4, entitled ‘Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Rainfall Forecasting in Queensland, Australia’).

While the SOI was very high during December 2010, and thus the extreme rainfall of January 2011 easily forecast, the SOI was only 13.8 during December 2021. It was thus not at all obvious to those interested in pressure patterns across the Pacific Ocean as an indicator of seasonal rainfall that we should expect flooding.

The flooding through 2022 was likely exacerbated by an atmosphere exceptionally high in volcanic aerosols from the explosion of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano a month earlier. If the BoM had been tracking volcanic ash from that volcano and using a more reliable system of rainfall forecasting, and there was better town planning with the new highway through Lismore built on piers to let the water flow under the road and across the floodplain, there may have never been the tragedy at Lismore.

Exceptionally high rainfall totals in Hong Kong in 1982 correlate with the arrival of stratospheric aerosol plumes from the eruption of El Chichon in Mexico. Atmospheres high in aerosols can contribute to exceptionally high rainfall, but this is ignored by mainstream climate scientists including meteorologists at the BoM who continue to run simulation models inventing a role for carbon dioxide.

El Chinon was a large volcanic eruption, reaching 31 kms (19 miles) into the atmosphere. Mt Pinatubo that erupted in the Philippines in 1991 was larger, reaching 40 kms (25 miles) and causing surface cooling in the Northern Hemisphere of up to 0.6°C. The eruption of Hunga Tonga in the South Pacific on 15th January 2022 was even larger, reaching 57 kms (35 miles). Yet the BoM continues to deny it has had any effect on temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere. And the Climate Council would be hard pressed to blame us for explosive volcanic activity.

The aerosol plume from Hunga-Tonga travelled west, reaching Australia on 18th January 2022. Flooding followed with main railway lines and roads in central Australia washed away. By February 15th, the volcanic ash had circled the Earth and was back over Australia, evidenced by unusually intense sunsets. After that, it began to rain so intensely that Brisbane flooded – again, and so I was part of the clean-up on 3rd March 2022.

That afternoon a group of us working in Sandford Street, St Lucia, were told to down tools at 2pm. The BoM was announcing on radio that our situation was ‘dangerous’ and ‘potentially life threatening’. All the while the sun kept shining. Not a drop of rain fell from the sky and the waters of the Brisbane River below continued to recede.

As I drove out of Brisbane a few hours later, the flash flooding forecast for that same afternoon was cancelled. Next, on radio there was talk of the climate emergency and the scary ‘rain bombs’ of five days earlier. How it was all ‘unprecedented’ – the volume and intensity of rainfall. More than one metre of rain had fallen at some locations in just a few days.

The rain that fell in Brisbane was not unprecedented, neither in volume or intensity. Back in February 1893 nearly two metres of rain had fallen over a similar period of time at Crohamhurst just to the north of Brisbane. And there was no mention of the 24-hour record of 907mm, the amount of rain that fell at Crohamhurst on 3rd February 1893. This remains the highest 24-hour rainfall total for anywhere in Australia and it was 130 years ago. That rainfall recording station has since been closed.

There was also no mention on the radio of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano a month earlier, the largest volcanic eruption anywhere on Earth so far this century, and how these volcanoes can supercharge the atmosphere to make Eastern Australia even more susceptible to heavy rainfall – and that the ash plumes could be monitored as they cross the Pacific Ocean just as weather stations monitor air pressure and so provide an SOI index.

There was also no mention on the radio that evening of 3rd March 2022 that the BoM seasonal rainfall forecasts are completely lacking in any skill. That the BoM consistently gets its seasonal rainfall forecasting wrong, and that not only did it not forecast the torrential rains at Lismore on 28th February 2022 but that it has so far refused to record any value for the 24 hours to 28th February 2022 at Lismore into the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology.

The most accurate seasonal weather prediction systems rely on statistical models using advances in machine learning to elucidate patterns in historical data. So, the integrity of Australia’s temperature and rainfall record is paramount. Yet both temperature and rainfall records are being constantly eroded by the BoM. Major rainfall events are not being entered into the database. Important weather stations are being closed and the available temperature data remodelled, stripping away evidence of past cycles of warming and cooling that correspond with periods of drought and floods.

But of even more concern to me is that since 2011 the BoM has stopped numerical averaging of the instantaneous one-second readings from the electronic probes in its automatic weather stations used to measure temperature. I have shown that this could result in a probe recording up to 0.4 °C warmer for the same weather. To know the effect of this more generally on Australia’s climate through 2022 the parallel data – the measurements taken from mercury thermometers and electronic probes in the same weather stations – needs to be made public. Since 2015, when I first requested this data, the Bureau has steadfastly refused to release it but my appeal against this will finally be heard on 3rd February 2023 by the Administrative Appeals Tribunal in Brisbane.

*Report to be published by the Institute of Public Affairs.

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Tom Halla
January 8, 2023 2:13 pm

This looks very much like BoM telling the green politicians what they want ti hear, rather than any scientific integrity. Rather like NASA GISS in the US.

Editor
January 8, 2023 3:00 pm

Rainfall in eastern NSW appears to be cyclical. We (eastern NSW) appear to be heading for a 40-year period of above average rainfall:
Time-series analysis of extreme rainfall and
flood events in two water catchments of Eastern
New South Wales shows an indicative link to
Gleissberg 87 yr cycles
Rainfall could well be cyclical over the whole of mainland eastern Australia too, as similar factors apply, but the paper doesn’t cover that. I’m not convinced by the paper’s references to the Gleissberg Cycle, but it certainly does look like there’s some kind of cycle. Incidentally, Lake George (see paper) is already full.

Mr.
January 8, 2023 3:05 pm

Thanks as always Jennifer for a good hit of reality.

That “Global Warming!” card is kept at locked & loaded readiness in the top pockets of all politicians, bureaucrats, academics and media (all the same genre really) to whip out as soon as a sniff of opportunity arises.

They are all just sooooo predictable now 🙁

Ireneusz Palmowski
January 8, 2023 3:40 pm

SOI very high, which means more rain in Australia.
Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 8 Jan, 2023
Average SOI for last 30 days 21.05
Average SOI for last 90 days 14.05
Daily contribution to SOI calculation 22.15

JCM
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
January 8, 2023 4:28 pm

an uninterrupted continuous duration of positive SOI since July 2020.

download.png
Ireneusz Palmowski
Reply to  JCM
January 9, 2023 12:29 am

30-day SOI values for the past two years.
http://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGSM000/soi30.png?1673252724
comment image

Last edited 27 days ago by Ireneusz Palmowski
Jennifer Marohasy
January 8, 2023 3:44 pm

Thanks so much for reposting this. :-).

A point of correction. In paragraph 6 (beginning ‘Wet years are usually cooler years … ) and also in the very last paragraph (beginning ‘But of more concern to me … ) I make reference to ‘electronic probes’. I received an email from Lance Pidgeon after I posted at my website, explaining that these platinum resistors are not ‘electronic’ but rather a simple electrical resistor: what he describes as a classical analogue devise. There is more information as a postscript at my original blog post.

It is not well understood that the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) does NOT conform to WMO guidelines in how it records temperatures.

It does not numerically average. Every other country that I know of that has transitioned to automatic weather stations does (e.g. UK effectively over one minute, the US over 5 minutes, )? Can someone provide contrary information?

X. Lin and K.G. Hubbard (Int. J. Climatology, Vol 28, 2008) explain:

“In the WMO guide, the WMO provides a clear definition of daily maximum temperature (TX) and daily minimum temperatures (TN) for the Liquid- in-Glass (LIG) maximum and minimum thermometers, which values can be directly observed from LIG ther- mometers during daily observations. However, for the thermometers other than LIG thermometers, such as any electronic and automated surface temperature sensors, the WMO provides the information for the definition of TX and TN temperatures which it requires a temperature sen- sor with a 20-s time constant and 1-min output averaging time as operational accuracy requirements for extremes of surface air temperature (WMO, 1996, 2006). For the average algorithms, the WMO states that ‘In order to standardize averaging algorithms it is recommended that the air temperature be reported as 1–10-min averages which are obtained after linearization of the sensor out- put, and which averaged values are to be considered as the “instantaneous” values of meteorological variables for use in most operational applications’. Therefore, the WMO standardized average algorithms can vary from 1–10-min averages.”

The Australian BoM does NOT do this.

In my opinion the Australian temperature data since 1 November 1996 (when the transition to probes began) will eventually be found not fit for purpose and need to be discarded. This will leave a rather large hole in the calculation of global averages.

Mr.
Reply to  Jennifer Marohasy
January 8, 2023 3:54 pm

The modern age technical equivalent of –

“thumbs on the scales”?

Keith Woollard
Reply to  Jennifer Marohasy
January 8, 2023 5:25 pm

Yes, I was concerned about this a while ago and requested the “full data” record for one warm day in Perth (Valentines Day 2020) They provided me with a one-minute record of the day and some interesting things popped out.
1) during the high temp portion of the day, the variability was much higher than the low temp time. This means that there is a much greater chance of getting an anomalous high value than a low one.
2) They report the min and max value within each minute. The variation within each minute can be surprisingly high – up to 1 degree C with almost 5% having half a degree or more
3) And yes, the recorded max for the day is the maximum instantaneous temp, not averaged in any way.
4) This particular day had the max temperature (40.6) half a degree higher than the 15 minute reported max

OneDayInPerth.JPG
Chris Hanley
Reply to  Jennifer Marohasy
January 8, 2023 8:36 pm

The Bureau of Meteorology does not include pre-1910 temperature records because they were recorded in ‘non-standard shelters’ i.e. not mounted within a Stevenson screen which is unfortunate as there is much evidence that the late 1890s – early 1900s period was notably warm and dry (Federation Drought, the worst in Australia’s recorded history).
An argument can be made on the same basis that the temperature record from electronic recording devices post-1996 ought not be simply grafted onto the Stevenson screen record but be a separate record.

MarkH
Reply to  Jennifer Marohasy
January 9, 2023 2:48 pm

The temperature discrepancy due to instantaneous (or effectively instantaneous) temperature readings by electrical probes shouldn’t be too hard to correct for. There are stations where the mercury thermometer and electrical readings were recorded for an overlapping period of time. I remember looking at one such station (Nhill I think) and finding a fairly consistent ~0.5C higher maximum temp recorded by the electrical measurement. Though imperfect, a correction could be made to these recorded temperatures.

They really should be using a temperature averaged over a fixed amount of time though, or at the very least including such a measurement alongside the instantaneous max, if they wanted an honest temperature record.

Eng_Ian
Reply to  MarkH
January 10, 2023 1:29 pm

It would be easy to fix these thermometers, Just attach them to a large copper or aluminium heat sink. The thermal mass will perform the averaging of the air temp. The mass can be tuned to give the required time constant.

How hard would that be?

bobclose
Reply to  MarkH
January 10, 2023 11:56 pm

Too right! they used to have a 5 or10 minute average to eliminate erratic hot wind gusts, say from cars or planes, or other machines passing by. But the powers that be want the max version so good practice goes straight out the window.

By the way, Australia had a relatively good world class weather monitoring system by 1860 using Stevenson screens as soon as they were invented, so the 50 years prior to the BoM’s official recordings are actually worthy of incorporation into the accepted historical record, but the present administration won’t do it because it would ruin their story of peak temperatures in modern times due to CO2 warming.
The PC policies of the BoM and CSIRO are to blame for the disgraceful trashing of our climate record, useless models with their terrible forecasting ability and worst of all their relentless fearmongering over climate change and natural disasters.

Some of these people should be serving jail sentences for all the harm they are doing to the country and the public. Bowen and his fan mob of virtue signalers should be up or a charge of wasting public money and time on renewables whilst the economy burns. Their ignorance is appalling!

January 8, 2023 3:47 pm

This temperature anomaly graph from the UAH satellite centre has oblique relevance to the story.
http://www.geoffstuff.com/uahjan2023.jpg
………………………

Expressed one way, chilren aged uner 111 living in one locality in Australia have been exposed only to a steadily cooling atmosphere, This is the direct opposite to the official line that they are experiencing warming of such magnitude that it is an existential crisis.
These two views cannot coexist. One of them is wrong.
Our paid, official research bodies like CSIRO and BOM fail to mention satellite derived temperatures like UAH in recent reports like State of the Climate. Along with other bodies taken over by activists, notably the once-proud Australian Academy of Sciences, there is push,push, push for the drama of crisis. They need to have a requirement of balance put on their reporting.
More. In late December 2022, Melbourne was forecast to have a “heatwave” as the maximum temperature was projected to rise above 35 degrees C for a day. All of 2022 had been below 35C. Yes, on one day, 35C was exceeded. Where was balance in the reporting? Melbourne weather records showed 850 prior days since the 1850s above 35C. That is an average of 6.3 days every year above 35C. Why did the news report the sole days in 2022 above 35C as a heatwave, when it was a really cool few days dressed up as really hot?
What game are they playing at?
Geoff S

Chris Hanley
Reply to  Geoff Sherrington
January 8, 2023 8:16 pm

It’s not cricket.

leefor
Reply to  Chris Hanley
January 8, 2023 9:24 pm

Those stumps can’t be correct. 😉

sherro01
Reply to  leefor
January 8, 2023 10:19 pm

Yes, typo, should be children under 11 years, not 111. Geoff S

Michael in Dublin
January 8, 2023 4:39 pm

It is interesting that in the eastern part of South Africa, that usually gets most of the summer rainfall, not only are dams full but there has been a considerable amount of rain recently and the country is only halfway through summer. Anyone who has lived in the country for a half a century or more knows it is a land of floods and droughts not unlike Australia. I am sure if one was able to get reliable rainfall measurements from all areas (becoming less likely because of mismanagement) and compare them to those of Australia there may be interesting patterns of correlation.

Mike
January 8, 2023 6:01 pm

Climate activist Mali Poppy Cooper, 22, made national headlines when she locked herself to the steering wheel of her car on the approach to a Sydney Harbour tunnel to protest all the flooding in Lismore.

Lol.

antigtiff
January 8, 2023 6:08 pm

I predict a year of 600 mm or less within a few years….because the chart shows that in the past.

Matt Kiro
Reply to  antigtiff
January 8, 2023 6:44 pm

I would have liked a prediction about what the author expected this year in Australia for rain. Felt relevant

YallaYPoora Kid
Reply to  Matt Kiro
January 9, 2023 2:12 am

More relevant is why the BOM as a billion dollar organisation funded by the Australian taxpayer cannot get their predictions or their homogenised dataset anywhere near reality.

Duker
January 8, 2023 8:19 pm

Good story. Well thought out points

however for the Lismore bridge theres plenty of water flow under the bridge (s) as photos show. Its the old town areas around the river that get flooded ( as you can normally find for any of the flood pictures in the last year . Not usually shown is the buildings, houses and farms are always very close to the actual river channel .Build on the flood plain and you well get wet !

May Contain Traces of Seafood
January 8, 2023 9:38 pm

Mali Poppy Cooper, 22, … was bailed on condition she get psychiatric help.

Mildly curious – did she?

Did she also maintain her bail conditions which I understand included a curfew?

wazz
January 9, 2023 12:15 am

Talking about BoM rainfall shenanigans – how about the ABC plus BoM plus a prominent climate academic claiming the 127mm for ALL 2022 at the
Muja Power Station BoM #9738 is a valid rain total.
See my blog
ABC sucked in by obvious rainfall errors at Muja Power Station a BoM site
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=7061
I have spoken by ph to farmers within an arrow shot of Muja Power Station and they measured over 500mm in 2022.

Peta of Newark
January 9, 2023 1:00 am

The kids ain’t worried about the climate.

It’s the mental state of their parents, teachers and government that’s upsetting them.
Try not to pass the buck via climate

And when some muppet comes along to assert that a Platinum resistance thermometer is not ‘an electronic device’, the kids have every right to be concerned
Their concern about Government is confirmed via the BoM’s patent Obsessive Compulsive Disorder and rampant paranoia over the measurement of temperature allied their blinding & blatant mendacity.

ClimateBear
January 9, 2023 2:55 pm

There is an aspect of the recent east coast floods that is more than material. I saw in on the ABC (!!!?) web site which summarised a BOM report that the rainfall was due to the (Triple) La Nina on the east Coast, the negative IOD over on the West of the continent and in one case an unusual jet stream wave from the Southern Ocean and also pointing out that the average wind speed on the east coast had been easterly in the range 3-4 kph. I assume the latter means that the rain systems took longer to pass through and thus dropped more rain in a particular location.

So, key takeaway? Its just weather but weather has much more complex mechanisms than the climatossophists will ever admit because it can’t me modelled by a line of best fit or equivalent simplistic assessment.

Meanshile we build on flood plains ( ever though why they are called FLOOD plains) which have formed over the millenia since the last ice age.
On the fire front we build housing and infrastructure as if it is a northern hemisphere, deciduous flora dominated landsacpe…..

Keith Woollard
Reply to  ClimateBear
January 9, 2023 6:02 pm

Less than 30 years after European colonisation the government was already having trouble with people building on the floodplains

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