Christmas Day Forecast: Snowiest and Coldest Since 2000

Snow as far south as Louisiana and Houston Texas.
Legendary forecaster Joe Bastardi writes on Twitter: (and provides graphics to back it up)

Coldest Christmas with most widespread snow over since 2000 IMO.

GEFS Christmas temp anomalies vs 2000, and ensemble snow before that.

Impressive for an ensemble that far out.

This is what the most reliable forecast model (ECMWF) shows for surface temperature on Christmas Day:

Here is the Climatology:

And here is what the forecast model GFS shows for snow on Christmas Day – snow as far south as Louisana and Houston Texas:

Images courtesy of WeatherBell.com

He adds:

Euro control run with an I-10 snow next week. Has not snowed before Christmas since 2004 in these areas (Widespread coastal Texas White Christmas)

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Pat from Kerbob
December 12, 2022 10:06 am

Thats just weather

Tom.1
Reply to  Pat from Kerbob
December 12, 2022 2:52 pm

Absolutely, and while “they” like to bring up weather as evidence for climate change, I’d like to think that “we’re” better than that.

joel
Reply to  Tom.1
December 12, 2022 4:40 pm

As they stomp your face into the mud, kept thinking that “we’re better than them.”

ResourceGuy
December 12, 2022 10:13 am

Thematically, this has differing impacts. In ski towns this is called great news. At agenda news outlets and certain campuses this is called climate change impact. And in the few remaining science-minded holdouts it’s called weather.

Bryan A
December 12, 2022 10:13 am

So, Snow in Every State

Bryan A
Reply to  Bryan A
December 12, 2022 10:14 am

It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas

Editor
December 12, 2022 10:36 am

Brrr-[expletive deleted]-rrrrr!!!!

Regards,
Bob

goldminor
December 12, 2022 10:42 am

It is 10:30 am and temps outside are at 27 F. The 10 day forecast is showing night time lows in the low 20s F for every night. It snowed about a foot+ here 2 days ago.

John Hultquist
Reply to  goldminor
December 12, 2022 10:46 am

On comments such as this can we get a general geographic location.
I guess you are not in Bermuda, but otherwise I’m stumped.

MarkW
December 12, 2022 10:50 am

I don’t know if this counts as irony or not, but I opened up the web page for my local news service to check the local weather report, and they are advertising for Disney on Ice, Frozen.

David Wojick
December 12, 2022 11:03 am

It is images courtesy of Weatherbell.com, where Joe dwells.

Bruce Cobb
December 12, 2022 11:05 am

Oh the more it snows
The more it goes
The more it goes
On snowing

And nobody knows
How cold my toes
How cold my toes
Are growing

Poet/philosopher Winnie the Pooh

Michael in Dublin
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
December 12, 2022 1:30 pm

January brings the snow,
Makes your feet and fingers glow.

February’s ice and sleet,
Freeze the toes right off your feet.

from A song of the weather
Flanders and Swann

Last edited 1 month ago by Michael in Dublin
John Hultquist
December 12, 2022 11:06 am

 Much of the Pacific NW is forecast to be 30 to 40 degrees below normal.
Cliff Mass blog has details.
Where I live – between the Columbia River of central Washington and the Cascade crest – these episodes are frustratingly difficult to get right.
The cold air is in Canada on the east side of the Rocky Mountain Range. For the coldest air to reach me it has to come over those mountains, flow into the Valley of the Columbia River (600 ft.) and fill it with cold air. If it continues, then it has to skirt around the heights where the Mission Ridge Ski area is (about 5,000 to 6,000 feet).
Google Earth, Lat/Long: 47.272438, -120.427818

The Kittitas Valley, where Ellensburg is 20 miles south of Mission Peak, may or may not get as cold as the models calculate. The Ellensburg National Weather people vacated the area in 1955. Local knowledge no longer contributes to forecasts.  

Moriarty
Reply to  John Hultquist
December 12, 2022 12:43 pm

Not 30 to 40 degrees below *normal* but 30 to 40 degrees below *average.*

John Hultquist
Reply to  Moriarty
December 12, 2022 2:54 pm

M.
If you are going to write about weather data, you should brush up on how meteorologists have, since 1935, defined “normal”. It is on the NWS web site and elsewhere.
It is sort of like the word “love” as a tennis score. Followers and players of tennis need to know the definition. They don’t complain because it is none of the following:  Eros, Philia, and Agape.😊

DonK31
December 12, 2022 11:10 am

The charts confuse me. Wouldn’t it be more understandable just to give the temperatures in absolutes rather than anomalies? For example, in Southern Indiana where I grew up, what is the estimated temps rather than colder or hotter than normal? If it is colder than normal in SWFL where I live now, it is still much warmer than it is expected to be in Southern Indiana.

strativarius
December 12, 2022 11:46 am

“France requests electricity exports to UK are cut as Europe’s energy crisis deepens”

https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1708509/France-electricity-exports-cut-UK-Europe-energy-crisis

And true to form…

“Britain is in the middle of a wind drought – and the timing couldn’t have been worse.

For several days now, the UK and western Europe have been calm, with barely a breeze.”

https://news.sky.com/story/future-of-renewable-energy-in-balance-as-uk-suffers-wind-drought-with-global-stilling-to-come-12766917

Brilliant

Last edited 1 month ago by strativarius
mikelowe2013
Reply to  strativarius
December 12, 2022 12:24 pm

And the frogs didn’t even need to exact revenge for the football!

Redge
Reply to  mikelowe2013
December 12, 2022 10:35 pm

They’re still pissed off about Agincourt

gezza1298
Reply to  Redge
December 13, 2022 5:59 am

And Crecy, Poitiers, Trafalgar, the Nile, Waterloo, not giving in to the Germans in WW2, having the Greenwich Meridian….

Retired_Engineer_Jim
Reply to  gezza1298
December 13, 2022 8:50 pm

The “Greenwich Meridian”, also known as the Prime Meridian, passes through France.

Phil.
Reply to  Retired_Engineer_Jim
December 16, 2022 9:50 am

But France abstained in the vote that chose Greenwich as the World’s Prime meridian in 1885.

Richard M
December 12, 2022 12:00 pm

I was just looking at my long term forecast (MN) and it starts to get cold later this week and stays cold all the way through Xmas (and beyond?).

mikelowe2013
December 12, 2022 12:21 pm

The weather in Europe worries me more, even though I am far away!

pillageidiot
Reply to  mikelowe2013
December 12, 2022 1:10 pm

Europe is currently experiencing their own cold outbreak! Especially centered on northern Europe.

I expect you could hear the gas meters spinning right now if you stood beside one.

Jeff L
December 12, 2022 12:28 pm

In the interest of accuracy, a few clarifications because 3 of the 4 plots are mis-labeled:
1) Plot 1 is the GEFS ensemble mean, not the Euro as labeled
2) Plot 2 is the observed temp anomaly for Christmas Day 2000, not “climatology” as labeled
3) Plot 3 is not showing snow on Christmas Day – this is the ensemble mean for total snow between now and Christmas Day.

DonK31
Reply to  Jeff L
December 12, 2022 1:24 pm

Thank you Jeff.

RickWill
December 12, 2022 12:45 pm

This is global warming in spades. It is the reason the Northern Hemisphere is warming so rapidly.

Every 1000kg of snow that ends up on land took the equivalent energy of 100kg of coal combustion to liberate it it from an ocean nearby. When that water vapour solidifies in the atmosphere it lowers the radiating temperature and thereby warms the surface.

Winter warming of land is the most significant trend in the NH and means more snow on any land that falls below 0C..

None of this is new or related to burning fossil fuel. It has happened 4 times in the last 500k years and the termination of the interglacial has just started. It will accelerate for another 5000 years.

Summer temperatures where there is no ice will be scorchers. As the ice builds up it will limit the land temperature to not much above 0C.

Presentation2.png
Bryan A
Reply to  RickWill
December 12, 2022 7:10 pm

The graph looks wonkey to me. Am I looking at it correctly?
Red wavy line = Solar output in W/m2 over the last 450 years
Black wavy line = Sea Level (also temperature) over the last 450,000 years (last 4 glaciations)
They don’t align as indicated temporally.
The correct time span of the overlaying solar output would only be coincident with the last 1-2m of sea level rise

Last edited 1 month ago by Bryan A
RickWill
Reply to  Bryan A
December 13, 2022 1:31 am

What you need to look at is the termination of the interglacial. The one at 399k is the most similar to present. The NH solar input rose at about the same rate as this time will be.

The black solid line is only sea level. Temperature is not related to that until into deep glaciation and the glacier melt starts to become significant and cools the ocean.

You will see that the first downswing in sea level is associated with the rising solar intensity in the NH.

The glaciation 221k year ago did not fully recover because the solar input swing very low before the ice fully melted.

Each glaciation is a number of precession cycles. The sea level drops when the NH warms up. It levels when the NH cools down. Finally, sea level rises rapidly on the next upswing after the sea level is around 100m lower than the present level.

It is reasonably clear the once there are enough glaciers calving into the northern oceans, the surface cools down and the water cycle shuts down. That means snow reduces and and melt takes over.

Cyan
December 12, 2022 1:07 pm

Meanwhile, here in the UK, the Met office has recorded the coldest December day since 2010.

I have just shovelled 2 inches of global warming off the path to the coal shed to get today’s fuel. Maybe I should burn an extra scuttle full today, the added CO2 might help to warm things up a bit.

Ireneusz Palmowski
December 12, 2022 1:08 pm

Snowstorm in the south of France on Dec. 12, ahead of the astronomical winter.
comment image

Ireneusz Palmowski
December 12, 2022 1:13 pm

In the northern hemisphere, winter like the 1970s.
comment image

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
December 13, 2022 4:32 am

“In the northern hemisphere, winter like the 1970s.”

Ah yes, the 1970’s. Back when the temperatures were leading climate scientist to speculate that the world might be entering a new Ice Age.

Science News Frontpage Headline at the Time: Ice Age Cometh?

Ireneusz Palmowski
Reply to  Tom Abbott
December 13, 2022 8:09 am

Another strong planetary wave in the upper stratosphere in the polar vortex belt.
comment image
comment image

Retired_Engineer_Jim
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
December 13, 2022 8:54 pm

You mean that “The Ice Age Cometh”?

megs
December 12, 2022 1:34 pm

The temperature here in Central West NSW was 3.5C this morning! May not sound very dramatic to you lot in the Northern Hemisphere, but it’s summer here. The average min temperature for this time of year is 13.9C. The min and max temps were all below average last month and are so far well below for this month too. We had a low of 3.2C a few days ago. We’ve only had a couple of days of summer weather.

Having said all that I hope you all manage to keep warm this winter. As cold as it gets here in winter sometimes we don’t get snowed in.

Ireneusz Palmowski
Reply to  megs
December 12, 2022 2:21 pm

Temperature anomalies in Australia. December will be below average.
comment image

taxed
Reply to  megs
December 12, 2022 2:47 pm

l think you can expect more of the same be to honest.
Just check on Nullshcool how much warmth is been leaked into the upper atmosphere over the Southern Polar Circle at 70 aPh and 10 aPh.

taxed
Reply to  taxed
December 12, 2022 2:52 pm

Sorry l mean hPa not aPh.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  taxed
December 13, 2022 4:37 am

“l think you can expect more of the same to be honest.”

Unfortunately, we *need* more of the same in order to break the spell of the Human-caused Climate Change meme. We need about a decade of this kind of weather to demonstrate that CO2 is not controlling Earth’s weather.

Alarmists claim CO2 will cause global temperatures to rise, but they are going to have a hard time maintaining that stance if temperatures continue to cool while CO2 in the atmosphere continues to rise.

Last edited 1 month ago by Tom Abbott
renbutler
December 12, 2022 1:44 pm

I actually remember Christmas 2000, because there was a partial solar eclipse that day:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_eclipse_of_December_25,_2000

I just remember that it was a stunningly clear/bright day. The weirdest part is that it seemed almost like it was lightly snowing that day, even though there wasn’t a cloud in the sky. It’s as if their was some moisture in the air around me that was crystallizing and just floating around in the light breeze.

I’ve never seen anything like that before or since.

Vlad the Impaler
Reply to  renbutler
December 12, 2022 7:04 pm

In aviation meteorology, it is referred to as ‘ice crystals’, and your description of it is perfect.

I was flying an instrument approach into Cody, Wyoming one fairly bright, clear afternoon, and it was very confusing as the automated weather report was calling the visibility two (statute) miles. Requires one to do the approach (it is below the minimums for “visual” flight), and as I reached the point at which the pilot either sees the runway and lands, or has to execute a “go around” (known in the trade as a ‘missed approach’), I looked for the runway which should have been about 3/4 of a mile from the aircraft, and saw NOTHING. Right as I applied full power to execute the miss, out of the corner of my eye, I caught sight of the end of the runway, so I completed the landing.

During roll-out, and taxiing into the ramp, I again listened to the automated report, and sure enough, it was saying two miles, two-and-half miles, and so on. Once I had my passengers in their rental car, and the aircraft secured, I called the FAA to report a malfunctioning system. Visibility, in an otherwise clear, blue sky, was very close to a half-mile, with this snow-like substance continually falling; I should mention it was also anomalously NON-windy at the time, being very close to dead calm.

People who live here tell me I’m crazy to believe there is actually a time and/or place that is not windy in Wyoming, but it was that day, in Cody. Temperatures were close to minus 25 Celsius at the time, also.

Yes, that has been my only experience with ice crystals, in about 72 years of life.

Regards,

Vlad

beng135
Reply to  renbutler
December 13, 2022 7:13 am

“The weirdest part is that it seemed almost like it was lightly snowing that day”

I remember the exact same thing on a bitter cold day in mountainous VA — I reckon the temp was no higher than 0 F and winds dead calm. There weren’t any clouds per say, but a haziness on the mountain where I lived, and when I got back from work, the road was covered w/snow from the frozen particles literally falling right out of the hazy air. The bottom of the mountain had no snow.

Last edited 1 month ago by beng135
rah
Reply to  renbutler
December 14, 2022 12:49 am

Anyone that has seen a ring around the moon has seen them. Not close up as you guys are describing of course.

taxed
December 12, 2022 3:14 pm

Always interested in what Joe has to say, has he has learned much about the weather the old school way rather then just through weather models.

The weather/jet stream patterning is very interesting at the moment as its showing how it can set up the NH for climate cooling. What l have discovered by watching it is that how the jet stream behaves the N Pacific could be key to what triggers N America into climate cooling.

Lee Riffee
December 12, 2022 8:51 pm

Sounds good to me – I’d love to have a white Christmas! In my 50 some odd years of life I’ve only seen one day where it actually snowed on December the 25th, though there was one day where it snowed Christmas eve and one other time where it snowed a couple of days before Christmas and it hadn’t melted away by then.

BTW I live in central Maryland, just outside of Westminster. I grew up further to the south, near Annapolis, and I can remember that I always had a twinge of disappointment around Christmas time. It didn’t matter how many nice gifts I got or how many get-togethers there were with good friends and family. I simply could not fathom a holiday that is (at least by Western standards) steeped in all things snowy and icy and yet the weather hardly ever delivered! Songs about snow, cartoons, movies and tv shows about snow….but nothing! Often times that really dampened my mood. Yes, sometimes it would be bitter cold, but if there was ever precipitation it always fell as rain.

I remember watching that old cartoon “A Year Without a Santa Clause” – the one with the infamous Heat Miser. I always felt like those kids in the mythical Southtown who never got any snow at Christmas time. Until the Heat MIser gave in and agreed to let it snow just for once on Christmas….sounds like the ‘ol Heat Miser will be backing off for this holiday season! Yes!
As said, it needn’t snow on Christmas day, as I’d be happy to just have some white on the ground.

Capt Jeff
December 12, 2022 11:32 pm

Calling Al Gore and John Kerry. Need you both to jump in your Gulfstreams, fly down to the Texas and Louisiana borders and deliver some of your promised GLOOOBAL WARMIN!
And y’all hurry up about it now!!

davezawadi
December 13, 2022 3:30 am

The BBC keep doing this “greater than average” thing. Arts graduates clearly don’t understand the word “average” or it’s mathematical meaning! Each time a temperature is above average it is likely that the average rises slightly! So the next time it is more normal?

Tom in Florida
December 13, 2022 4:56 am

According to the first anomaly chart, my area of SW FL will be 11F lower. The high for Dec 25, 2000 for my area was 74F. So now it is forecast to be 63F. Cold for me but overall not so bad. Once again, warmer is better.

johchi7
December 13, 2022 7:49 am

It’s surprising how soon people forget recent events such as the 12/20/2021 Hunga Tonga submarine volcano that on 1/15/2022 erupted, that created a “Volcanic Winter” adding some 10 percent more than normal water vapor into the stratosphere, along with ash and gases as high as 35 miles into the atmosphere. This is what real Climate Change looks like, that changes weather conditions for possibly years.

ResourceGuy
December 13, 2022 8:40 am

Push it a little to cover Happy Valley.

rah
December 13, 2022 9:47 am

Winter of 89-90. I had PCSed to Ft. Sam Houston in SanAntonio, TX. Subzero temps, ice and snow hit. We were living in a rented house off post until family housing came available on post.

No big deal for on old winter warrior. So, though the post was closed I figured I would go in and get the lay of the land at the school where I was to be a trainer.

I was in uniform polishing my boots as I watched the news. When I saw a guy get out of his Camaro to push it while the wheels were spinning and nobody was behind the wheel I changed my mind.

I took off my BDUs and got comfortable and Sherry and I spent the day playing games with the kids.

Last edited 1 month ago by rah
ewinb
December 13, 2022 11:49 am

I am so glad that weather is not climate. But we only have one climate for the whole earth, don’t we? Does the weather have to obey the models we currently use for directing public policy?

Allan MacRae
December 14, 2022 5:43 am

“However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.
“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.”
– Excerpt from an article in The Independent, March 20, 2000.

Just one of the many failed predictions by the global warming alarmists – every one of their ~80 very-scary predictions has proven FALSE to date. The global warming alarmists have a perfectly NEGATIVE predictive track record. Nobody should believe them.

Phil.
Reply to  Allan MacRae
December 16, 2022 10:13 am

Viner was of course referring to SE England and indeed snowfall there has become rarer over the last 20 years (years without snow cover have become more common since he made that prediction).

Yirgach
December 14, 2022 6:12 am

Nothing like a good Nor’easter for Southern Vermont. The Windy forecast (ECMWF) shows 36+ inches of new snow in the next 10 days…

WhooHoo!

tom_gelsthorpe
December 14, 2022 1:25 pm

Santa Claus knows who’s been naughty or nice, so he’s decided to give the climatistas a big boot in the backside. They’ve been naughty.

He’s not going to leave a lump of coal in their stockings, either, no matter how much they want them.

rah
December 14, 2022 7:46 pm

It appears that with every run the models are advancing the snow line further south. Now showing the possibility of a dusting in the Texas Pan Handle.

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