Essay by Eric Worrall
“… The fact is, while not exactly picked out of a hat, the 1.5C figure is an arbitrary one. …”
Why we should forget about the 1.5C global heating target
Tue 13 Sep 2022 02.48 AEST
The goal of 1.5C by 2030 is arbitrary and now unachievable – yet working to prevent every 0.1C rise can still give us hope
Bill McGuire is professor emeritus of geophysical and climate hazards at UCL
Keeping the global average temperature rise (since pre-industrial times) below 1.5C is widely regarded as critical if we are to sidestep dangerous, all-pervasive climate change.
To have a fair chance of keeping this side of 1.5C, emissions have to fall by 45% in little more than 90 months, and I am on record as saying that this is practically impossible. But it’s worse than that. It is perfectly feasible that we will crash through the 1.5C guardrail even earlier.
Maybe we are too fixated with this precise temperature rise. The fact is, while not exactly picked out of a hat, the 1.5C figure is an arbitrary one. The exact level of temperature rise at which climate change becomes dangerous is simply not known. Indeed, the 33 million people displaced from their homes in Pakistan might justifiably say we have reached it already. As for tipping points, any or all of those flagged in the new research could happen at some point below 1.5C, so we may have crossed one or more already – only time will tell. Just as easily, we might need a 1.6C, 1.7C or even higher rise before the first runaway impacts of global heating are encountered.
…Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/12/global-heating-fighting-degree-target-2030
I love the downgrade on the 1.5C limit – “… the 1.5C figure is an arbitrary one…”.
The reality is nothing bad will happen when or if we breach 1.5C. So it would be intensely embarrassing for climate alarmists if this breach occurs in the next few years, rather than decades from now, after they are all safely retired or dead.