Essay by Eric Worrall
Is anyone else fed up with us approaching but never actually crossing all those dangerous tipping points?
World on brink of five ‘disastrous’ climate tipping points, study finds
Giant ice sheets, ocean currents and permafrost regions may already have passed point of irreversible change
Damian CarringtonEnvironment editor
@dpcarringtonFri 9 Sep 2022 04.00 AESTThe climate crisis has driven the world to the brink of multiple “disastrous” tipping points, according to a major study.
It shows five dangerous tipping points may already have been passed due to the 1.1C of global heating caused by humanity to date.
These include the collapse of Greenland’s ice cap, eventually producing a huge sea level rise, the collapse of a key current in the north Atlantic, disrupting rain upon which billions of people depend for food, and an abrupt melting of carbon-rich permafrost.
At 1.5C of heating, the minimum rise now expected, four of the five tipping points move from being possible to likely, the analysis said. Also at 1.5C, an additional five tipping points become possible, including changes to vast northern forests and the loss of almost all mountain glaciers.
In total, the researchers found evidence for 16 tipping points, with the final six requiring global heating of at least 2C to be triggered, according to the scientists’ estimations. The tipping points would take effect on timescales varying from a few years to centuries.
…
Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/sep/08/world-on-brink-five-climate-tipping-points-study-finds
The abstract of the study;
Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points
David I. Armstrong McKay* https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0020-7461 d.mckay@exeter.ac.uk
Arie Staal https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5409-1436
Jesse F. Abrams https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0411-8519
Ricarda Winkelmann https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1248-3217
Boris Sakschewski https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7230-9723
Sina Loriani https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6660-960X
Ingo Fetzer https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7335-5679
Sarah E. Cornell https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4367-1296
Johan Rockström
Timothy M. Lenton* https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6725-7498 d.mckay@exeter.ac.uk9 Sep 2022
Vol 377, Issue 6611
Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond a warming threshold, leading to substantial Earth system impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide a revised shortlist of global “core” tipping elements and regional “impact” tipping elements and their temperature thresholds. Current global warming of ~1.1°C above preindustrial temperatures already lies within the lower end of some tipping point uncertainty ranges. Several tipping points may be triggered in the Paris Agreement range of 1.5 to <2°C global warming, with many more likely at the 2 to 3°C of warming expected on current policy trajectories. This strengthens the evidence base for urgent action to mitigate climate change and to develop improved tipping point risk assessment, early warning capability, and adaptation strategies.
Read more (paywalled): https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950
Unfortunately the study is paywalled, so I can’t tell you the timeframe of these alleged tipping points. Not that the predicted dates matter that much – in my experience, tipping point predictions are usually quietly ignored or deleted when the deadline expires.
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Cap had some fun with an extreme prediction, and we do not have to wait years to see if it’s correct, just a couple of weeks!
https://electroverse.co/carrington-like-coronal-mass-ejection-cme-to-strike-earth-on-friday-september-23/
Why does anyone still believe this crap after many decades: http://www.debunkingclimate.com/failedpredictions.html
They always mention Greenland… A place which would take over 12,000 years to melt at present temps(maybe if the place was actually melting)… Sadly for them, by then, we will be back in a full ice age….
It’s hard to believe anyone could be so deluded as to believe that something with no empirical support could be true. Living in a fantasy pretend world is what ideologues do.
Food, shelter, clothing.
Last iooked those are the only three items you cannot place in order of needs.
OK, we will limit warming to 1.5C and take away your food, your house or your clothing. Forever. You pick.
From the article: “It shows five dangerous tipping points may already have been passed due to the 1.1C of global heating caused by humanity to date.”
That’s what it was in 2016, but it’s cooled off since then, down 0.5C from the 2016 highpoint.
So what does 0.7C of global heating cause? Still five tipping points? What if it continues to cool? I guess those tipping points will diminish. Do you know that it won’t continue to cool? Answer: No, you don’t.
Also, the year 1998 is statistically tied with the year 2016 for the warmest year in the satellite era. We didn’t get five tipping points after 1998. Instead it cooled off and nothing tipped over.
This author ought to study a little climate history to get the proper perspective on the temperatures.
From the article: “Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond a warming threshold, leading to substantial Earth system impacts.”
Name one example of this happening in Earth’s recent past. Describe the impact on the Earth system.
This is all pure speculation on the part of these authors. This is the state of alarmist climate science today. It’s all about scaring people using ficticious disasters.