Claim: The World is On the Brink of Five Climate Tipping Points

Essay by Eric Worrall

Is anyone else fed up with us approaching but never actually crossing all those dangerous tipping points?

World on brink of five ‘disastrous’ climate tipping points, study finds

Giant ice sheets, ocean currents and permafrost regions may already have passed point of irreversible change

Damian CarringtonEnvironment editor
@dpcarringtonFri 9 Sep 2022 04.00 AEST

The climate crisis has driven the world to the brink of multiple “disastrous” tipping points, according to a major study.

It shows five dangerous tipping points may already have been passed due to the 1.1C of global heating caused by humanity to date.

These include the collapse of Greenland’s ice cap, eventually producing a huge sea level rise, the collapse of a key current in the north Atlantic, disrupting rain upon which billions of people depend for food, and an abrupt melting of carbon-rich permafrost.

At 1.5C of heating, the minimum rise now expected, four of the five tipping points move from being possible to likely, the analysis said. Also at 1.5C, an additional five tipping points become possible, including changes to vast northern forests and the loss of almost all mountain glaciers.

In total, the researchers found evidence for 16 tipping points, with the final six requiring global heating of at least 2C to be triggered, according to the scientists’ estimations. The tipping points would take effect on timescales varying from a few years to centuries.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/sep/08/world-on-brink-five-climate-tipping-points-study-finds

The abstract of the study;

Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points

David I. Armstrong McKay* https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0020-7461 d.mckay@exeter.ac.uk
Arie Staal https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5409-1436
Jesse F. Abrams https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0411-8519
Ricarda Winkelmann https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1248-3217
Boris Sakschewski https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7230-9723
Sina Loriani https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6660-960X
Ingo Fetzer https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7335-5679
Sarah E. Cornell https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4367-1296
Johan Rockström
Timothy M. Lenton* https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6725-7498 d.mckay@exeter.ac.uk

9 Sep 2022

Vol 377, Issue 6611

DOI: 10.1126/science.abn7950

Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond a warming threshold, leading to substantial Earth system impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide a revised shortlist of global “core” tipping elements and regional “impact” tipping elements and their temperature thresholds. Current global warming of ~1.1°C above preindustrial temperatures already lies within the lower end of some tipping point uncertainty ranges. Several tipping points may be triggered in the Paris Agreement range of 1.5 to <2°C global warming, with many more likely at the 2 to 3°C of warming expected on current policy trajectories. This strengthens the evidence base for urgent action to mitigate climate change and to develop improved tipping point risk assessment, early warning capability, and adaptation strategies.

Read more (paywalled): https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950

Unfortunately the study is paywalled, so I can’t tell you the timeframe of these alleged tipping points. Not that the predicted dates matter that much – in my experience, tipping point predictions are usually quietly ignored or deleted when the deadline expires.

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Greytide
September 10, 2022 10:06 am

Seeing as I am still alive and we are supposed to have passed a number of “Tipping Points” I take all this with a pinch of salt and put it in the small circular filing cabinet by my feet.

Last edited 22 days ago by Greytide
Mr.
Reply to  Greytide
September 10, 2022 10:55 am

I still suffer the onset of anxiety when realization that a tipping point is at hand, let alone 5 –

  1. tip at all?
  2. 10%?
  3. 15%?
  4. 20%?
  5. even more?
Dave Fair
Reply to  Mr.
September 10, 2022 11:54 am

Mr., it depends on how much you value what your waitress shakes at you.

Mr.
Reply to  Dave Fair
September 10, 2022 2:42 pm

Tipping point #5 then 😳

Dave Fair
Reply to  Mr.
September 10, 2022 3:40 pm

I’ve been so motivated in the past. I choose to believe that was not the sole motivation of a few of the waitresses to ask me to wait until they got off work. I used to be young, fit and good-looking. And a 48″ chest and 32″ waist didn’t hurt with the women.

Joao Martins
Reply to  Mr.
September 11, 2022 12:13 pm

In this case…

No tips, please: the whole wallet!

Reply to  Greytide
September 10, 2022 9:36 pm

By your feet?
Mine’s across the landing with the seat up.

Tom Halla
September 10, 2022 10:09 am

Considering paleoclimate and paleo estimates of CO2 levels, I conclude the “CO2 is the thermostat” claim is terminally weak.

Editor
September 10, 2022 10:12 am

How can the Greenland Glacier collapse when it is inside of a bowl and that for large areas of the interior it is well below freezing.

The Eemian interglacial melted it more without any catastrophic effects shown.

Peter Hartley
Reply to  Sunsettommy
September 10, 2022 10:46 am

Not just that, but even people like Mann admit there was at least a North Atlantic medieval warm period — they cannot deny the historical, let alone paleoclimatological, evidence — that was warmer than that area is now and no “tipping point” was passed. The evidence also suggests that the Holocene maximum was warmer than the Medieval warm period in that area of the world and still tipping point was passed.

Last edited 22 days ago by Peter Hartley
KcTaz
Reply to  Peter Hartley
September 11, 2022 12:58 am

New Study Shows How Tortoises, Alligators Thrived in High Arctic

A new study of the High Arctic climate roughly 50 million years ago led by the University of Colorado at Boulder helps to explain how ancient alligators and giant tortoises were able to thrive…
https://bit.ly/3gjafOp
https://www.colorado.edu/today/2010/08/24/new-study-shows-how-tortoises-alligators-thrived-high-arctic-some-50-million-years-ago

How did Earth survive? Sarc/

Steve Case
Reply to  Sunsettommy
September 10, 2022 3:00 pm

How can the Greenland Glacier collapse when it is inside of a bowl…
__________________________________

Oh! That’s easy, during the summer water flowing into those moulins lubricates the glaciers so that that they slide uphill out of the bowl.

another ian
Reply to  Steve Case
September 10, 2022 3:11 pm

I heard that the definition of a road engineer is

“The result of a very expensive education in running water uphill”.

More money in a career migration to “climate science”?

Call me a skeptic
Reply to  Steve Case
September 10, 2022 3:17 pm

Kreskin is about to perform his magic and float the Greenland ice mass to the tropics.

william Johnston
Reply to  Steve Case
September 10, 2022 3:48 pm

The centrifugal action from the earths rotation.

Steve Case
Reply to  william Johnston
September 10, 2022 4:33 pm

I was thinking about adding that “Twist” (-:

Reply to  Sunsettommy
September 10, 2022 9:39 pm

How can the Greenland Glacier collapse when it is inside of a bowl?
Quantum tunnelling, Natch.
Probability? We Dont Do Sums here. Just Self expression and imaginative constructs.

Dave Andrews
Reply to  Sunsettommy
September 11, 2022 6:27 am

They’re climate change scientists they don’t know any thing about geography or geology-the world is just flat like in the Atlas.

John Tillman
September 10, 2022 10:13 am

Summers were up to 6 degrees C hotter in north central Siberia during the Holocene Climatic Optimum than now, without the permafrost melting to release dangerous levels of methane.

Smart Rock
Reply to  John Tillman
September 10, 2022 10:44 am

I doubt it. The permafrost probably thawed out, and then re-froze when it got colder. Just as in Greenland, where Viking-era graves are just now being revealed as the permafrost thaws. Those graves surely weren’t dug in permafrost.

Perhaps permafrost shouldn’t be called “permafrost” as it’s not really permanent over long timescales. The implied permanence allows activists to cast it as a victim of human-caused climate change. Just like polar bears, and all the other ongoing climate disasters that 99.9 percent of the population can’t see for themselves because they all happen far away from where most folk live.

Mr.
Reply to  Smart Rock
September 10, 2022 10:48 am

“Transient frost” sounds too anti-LGBTQI2+ ?

John Tillman
Reply to  Smart Rock
September 10, 2022 12:04 pm

If Siberian permafrost melted 5-9 Ka, we wouldn’t find frozen mammoth carcasses in it.

Coastal SW Greenland’s climate is different. Northern Siberia lies well above the Arctic Circle, c. 70 N. Norse settlements were around 60 N.

Last edited 22 days ago by John Tillman
meiggs
Reply to  John Tillman
September 10, 2022 5:44 pm

How about the woolys found off shore in South Cackalack? official fossil of SC?

ATheoK
Reply to  John Tillman
September 10, 2022 6:13 pm

The frozen mammoths found were not just under the surface. They were deep where the permafrost are still frozen.

Plus, the mammoths were exposed by flowing water, streams/river.

The ‘cave/tunnel’ they moved the baby mammoth to keep it frozen is dug below where the permafrost is still frozen.

Doonman
Reply to  John Tillman
September 10, 2022 12:03 pm

Remember, as glaciers melt due to modern climate change, it reveals all those bodies and artifacts of ancient people who for some reason not known to modern science, crawled under them.

Graemethecat
Reply to  Doonman
September 10, 2022 1:08 pm

..to say nothing of the trees and other plants which managed to grow under ice sheets.

Call me a skeptic
Reply to  John Tillman
September 10, 2022 3:27 pm

Haven’t you heard? According to the Atlantic Magazine we entered the Anthropocene Era. Never mind that it is only 150 years old. Geologically speaking, it’s less than 1 second old. My ex tried to convince me of this having an impressive urban studies degree…hence the ex part.

Steve Case
Reply to  John Tillman
September 10, 2022 5:07 pm

“…dangerous levels of methane.”
__________________________

For God’s sake please stop buying into the bullshit. Atmospheric methane isn’t going to reach dangerous levels anywhere ever. The Global Warming Potential numbers that say it’s 86 times more powerful than CO2 is a very clever work of misdirection. By 2100 methane is on track to produce less than 0.05°C of warming. In other words, nothing.

John VC
September 10, 2022 10:19 am

I notice that all the cited authors publish at the same .org, so I suspect this is just a magnification of one man’s personal opinion. Nothing to worry about, although my lady friend always seems to pick up on such nonsense, and tries to inform me of the impending doom.

alexei
Reply to  John VC
September 10, 2022 12:14 pm

The lead author is from Exeter University, one of the UK’s most fervent proponents of CAGW but it doesn’t follow that the other signatories are necessarily from the same Uni, since ORCID is not a place but a system:-

“an ORCID is a widely accepted unique identifier for researchers/authors. It is a simple numerical identifier (e.g. 0000-0001-6479-5330). Each researcher/author should have only one ORCID, which will stay the same over their lifetime.”

https://support.jmir.org/hc/en-us/articles/115001351808-What-is-an-ORCID-why-is-it-mandatory-to-have-one-and-how-can-I-get-one-

Paul Blase
Reply to  alexei
September 10, 2022 4:26 pm

So an ORCID is how you ID an orc.

Richard Page
Reply to  Paul Blase
September 10, 2022 7:47 pm

I thought it was another, albeit obscure, word for testicle?

Reply to  Richard Page
September 10, 2022 9:41 pm

That’s an orchid, dear.

Richard Page
Reply to  Leo Smith
September 11, 2022 11:02 pm

Oh bother, ‘ave I been dropping me aitches again!

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Paul Blase
September 10, 2022 8:15 pm

Orc, goblin, cave troll… but they rarely have their IDs on them.

Dave Andrews
Reply to  alexei
September 11, 2022 6:37 am

Yes. James Dyke another member of the Exeter team recently published a book entitled ‘Fire,Storm and Flood : the violence of climate change’.

He also often has a column in the UK i newspaper which is always full of doom and gloom.

Mike Lowe
Reply to  John VC
September 10, 2022 12:43 pm

Same as Boris’s lady friend, no doubt!

Rod Evans
Reply to  Mike Lowe
September 11, 2022 12:17 am

Huh, she’s no lady, she’s his wife!….

Mike Maguire
September 10, 2022 10:24 am

They didn’t mention the 6th tipping point that took place years ago……….the planet is being greened to death by massive, CO2 fed plants/crops(-:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/

Smart Rock
Reply to  Mike Maguire
September 10, 2022 1:59 pm

Oh but they did. Here’s the map from their paper – “Sahel/West African Monsoon Greening

Oh the horror! Irreversible growth of green plants – what will those poor Africans do when the Sahara disappears? Where will the camels go?

Global warming thresholds.jpg
Dave Andrews
Reply to  Smart Rock
September 11, 2022 6:41 am

Things are so bad a lot of them have already migrated to Australia 🙂

It doesn't add up...
Reply to  Dave Andrews
September 11, 2022 10:10 am

The Simpsons Desert by Matt Groening?

mort
September 10, 2022 10:24 am

what we need is an article explaining how we have already passed the five stupidity tipping points.

I guess they’re kinda right. If we destroy our modern society, we will be unable to deal with any kind of emergency. Perhaps we can give up all of our modern evil ways, and go live in caves again.

Reply to  mort
September 10, 2022 2:34 pm

mort
Perhaps we can give up all of our modern evil ways, and go live in caves again.”
Perhaps we can give up all of our modern evil ways, and about one percent of us can go live in caves again.
FIFY.
The rest will be dead.
Can our green fertile planet support more than perhaps 50-100 million people with Mesolithic technology?

Auto

H.R.
Reply to  mort
September 10, 2022 2:56 pm

I already have my cave picked out. I have sprayed it heavily with Cave Bear-B-Gone™.

There are lots of bats, so I’ll have no lack of bat soup to eat. But I must admit, there’s some sort of hush-hush research facility and a wet market nearby that are making me a little nervous.

Bryan A
Reply to  H.R.
September 10, 2022 4:20 pm

Bring a pick-a-nik basket full of choc-o-lit cake just in case or you might wind up with a little BooBoo

Bryan A
Reply to  mort
September 10, 2022 4:10 pm

Easy enough … we passed the 5 stupidity tripping points with the onset of Climate Science. Populated by college graduates who, through edjumacation, determination and will, have proven it is possible to double down on stupid. And apparently redouble down too.

Brad
September 10, 2022 10:25 am

I don’t know how these people can look at themselves in the mirror every morning. Once the scam is fully exposed, what will they do for a living???

Brad-DXT
Reply to  Brad
September 10, 2022 10:36 am

They don’t see themselves in the mirror. They just see their facade that they show to the outside world without introspection. They might as well be vampires.

Mr.
Reply to  Brad
September 10, 2022 10:50 am

Go back to writing articles about the impending ice-age?

HotScot
Reply to  Brad
September 10, 2022 10:56 am

Move on to their next made up crisis.

IanE
Reply to  Brad
September 10, 2022 11:07 am

Yeah, well, I think that’s the problem: they do look in the Mirror every morning (or the Guardian if they have pretensions)!

Dave Fair
Reply to  Brad
September 10, 2022 11:58 am

The Ship of State changes direction very slowly (dare I say glacially?). By the time the scam has run its course, these profiteers will be long gone.

Bruce
Reply to  Brad
September 10, 2022 12:02 pm

When they look in the mirror, they see nothing because they are vampires.

Richard Page
Reply to  Brad
September 10, 2022 7:51 pm

The day after the climate change scam is exposed, unemployment figures will increase – these a-holes are unemployable hence the need for grants to keep them in the manner to which they have become accustomed.

Rud Istvan
September 10, 2022 10:27 am

Future ‘likely’ tipping points is about all they have left, since their past predictions concerning same proved wrong:

  1. Arctic summer sea ice did not disappear.
  2. Sea level rise did not accelerate.
  3. The RAPID buoy array shows the AMOC (Gulf Stream) did not slow.
  4. Arctic tundra permafrost did not melt.
  5. Greenland still isn’t green.

But trust them now—it’s likely gonna happen if we don’t turn to ruinables.

Retired_Engineer_Jim
Reply to  Rud Istvan
September 10, 2022 3:35 pm

This time it’s different.

Bill Toland
Reply to  Retired_Engineer_Jim
September 10, 2022 4:43 pm

Why didn’t all the tipping points invented by climate alarmists occur during the Holocene Climate Optimum?

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Bill Toland
September 10, 2022 8:22 pm

Cuz only heat trapped by CO2 can cause tippers. Other kinds of heat are the wrong kind.

ATheoK
Reply to  Rud Istvan
September 10, 2022 6:26 pm

They included all of the already failed tipping points in their latest 6 tipping points.

Every tipping point cited is utterly dependent upon the word “could”. I’m sure that “could” does not mean ‘definitely’ or even ‘probably’.

They’re just more grifters seeking the riches that come from pandering alarmisms.

Mark BLR
September 10, 2022 10:31 am

Unfortunately the study is paywalled, so I can’t tell you the timeframe of these alleged tipping points.

Pro-tip : Always check out the “Supplementary Material / Information” buttons before typing something like that !

In this case the Excel spreadsheet you are looking for is in the “Data S1” (.zip) file …

ATheoK
Reply to  Mark BLR
September 10, 2022 6:46 pm

Why!?

The first fifty alleged climate scientists predicting tipping points were as daft as they claimed they were serious.

Why chase the Johnnys-come-lately alarmists?
Especially when they bring nothing new.
Instead, these latest alarmists predicting “tipping points” trot out the same tired excuses and claims.

Mark BLR
Reply to  ATheoK
September 12, 2022 5:16 am

Why chase the Johnnys-come-lately alarmists?

Because if left unchallenged both the “regular lurkers” and the “Internet surfers who happen to arrive at WUWT for the first time by landing on this article” could get the impression that “Nobody is questioning ‘the experts’ … therefore they must be right …”.

The author (Eric Worrall) wrote that he was unable to find the “timescales” about the BALD ASSERTIONS that were being made (without having to “buy” the scientific paper).

I merely pointed him to where he, and everyone else, could find some (not “all” !) of that information.

– – – – –

To my mind (which is only human, and therefore all too fallible …) the best way of countering claims about any “consensus” on these purported “tipping points” is to quote the IPCC.

AR6, WG-I report (final version, May 2022), section 1.6.1.4, “The likelihood of reference scenarios, scenario uncertainty and storylines”, on page 239 :

Among the five core scenarios used most in this report, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 are explicit ‘no-climate-policy’ scenarios (Gidden et al., 2019; Cross-Chapter Box 1.4, Table 1), assuming a carbon price of zero. These future ‘baseline’ scenarios are hence counterfactuals that include less climate policies compared to ‘business-as-usual’ scenarios – given that ‘business-as-usual’ scenarios could be understood to imply a continuation of existing climate policies. Generally, future scenarios are meant to cover a broad range of plausible futures, due for example to unforeseen discontinuities in development pathways (Raskin and Swart, 2020), or to large uncertainties in underlying long-term projections of economic drivers (Christensen et al., 2018). However, the likelihood of high emission scenarios such as RCP8.5 or SSP5-8.5 is considered low in light of recent developments in the energy sector (Hausfather and Peters, 2020a, 2020b). Studies that consider possible future emission trends in the absence of additional climate policies, such as the recent IEA 2020 World Energy Outlook ‘stated policy’ scenario (International Energy Agency, 2020), project approximately constant fossil and industrial CO2 emissions out to 2070, approximately in line with the medium RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios (Hausfather and Peters, 2020b) and the 2030 global emission levels that are pledged as part of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement (Section 1.2.2; (Fawcett et al., 2015; Rogelj et al., 2016; UNFCCC, 2016; IPCC, 2018).

NB : All plots of both “CO2 / GHG emissions” and “future GMST projections” show the “new” (CMIP6 for AR6, 2021/2) SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 pathways neatly bracket the “old” (CMIP5 for AR5, 2013) RCP8.5 pathway.

See the graph at the end of this post for an example all the way to the year 2500.

Compare the trajectories of either “RCP4.5 vs. RCP8.5” or “SSP2-4.5 vs. SSP5-8.5”.

Then explain to me, and everyone else, with a straight face why it is that EVERY SINGLE ONE of those “tipping point” scientific papers is based on the RCP8.5 “counterfactual” pathway.

IPCC-CO2-ppm_To-2500.png
September 10, 2022 10:32 am

“Is anyone else fed up with us approaching but never actually crossing all those dangerous tipping points?”

No …
I always look forward to a new & exciting tipping point every week … it’s amazing what original ideas the gang-green minds can produce !!

Old Man Winter
September 10, 2022 10:37 am

Guam climate tipping point

Guamtipb.jpg
Mr.
Reply to  Old Man Winter
September 10, 2022 10:51 am

Good ol’ Hank.
His legacy will live on in ridicule forever 🙂

KcTaza
Reply to  Old Man Winter
September 11, 2022 1:39 am

Yep. If there was a Nobel-like prize for Stupid, Hank would definitely be a top contender.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  KcTaza
September 12, 2022 9:44 am

Don Limon of CNN would be in that category. Don speculated that the missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 had been swallowed up by a black hole.

markl
September 10, 2022 10:41 am

My guess is that those that jumped on the AGW bandwagon for profit or virtue signaling are too embarrassed to admit they are wrong and are grabbing at straws to justify their decision.

ATheoK
Reply to  markl
September 10, 2022 7:04 pm

From their other actions, I believe they are egocentric narcissists and emotionally unable to admit error.
A major reason why they hate debates with a passion.

The fact that leftists crucify those alarmist scientists who admit error or even just changed their opinions doesn’t encourage alarmist alleged scientists to stray.

Once they sign up to feeding off the climate change alarmist cash cow, it takes serious determination and willpower to return to honest science.

Reply to  markl
September 10, 2022 9:47 pm

My guess is that those that jumped on the AGW bandwagon for profit or virtue signalling, don’t have any shame and just want to wring the last dollar out of it before they find a new way to part fools from their money.

They will just go very quiet…Like the KremlinTrolls have gone very quiet since Ukraine took more territory back in 6 days than the Russians have in 6 months.

I wonder, once Putin and chums are a footnote in history, how much Liberal Left BS will simply vanish without trace?

KcTaza
Reply to  Leo Smith
September 11, 2022 1:27 am

At this point, I just hope it’s Putin et al who are a footnote in history and not Biden, the USA and the Western world.

Last edited 22 days ago by KcTaza
Tom Abbott
Reply to  KcTaza
September 12, 2022 9:48 am

Me, too.

HotScot
September 10, 2022 10:46 am

I would like a greeny to explain to me how polar ice caps, including Greenland, actually work.

OK, so ocean temperatures rise enough to melt all the sea ice in the world. So I guess a degree or two might manage that?

Now we are left with no sea ice, but no sea level rise – the old ice in a glass example.

The continent of Antarctica, for example, is a stranded rock covered in ice at summer temperatures of -40C. Scott was believed to have died in the Antarctic summer in temperatures of around -44C.

So how does the landbound ice melt?

If atmospheric temperatures rise sufficiently to melt that ice we are probably facing an entirely different planet anyway. -40C is a big number to overcome and I don’t imagine any ice will be melting soon with 1.5C of atmospheric temperature rise as the sea can’t reach the ice on the continent because it can’t rise, and atmospheric temperatures can’t melt the ice either.

So where does all this anticipated sea level rise come from?

Gregg
Reply to  HotScot
September 10, 2022 12:10 pm

Ice shelves breaking off after being undercut by warm(er) water? Just guessing.

ATheoK
Reply to  Gregg
September 10, 2022 7:08 pm

Once it is an ice shelf, it is sea ice, does not cause sea level rise.

John Tillman
Reply to  HotScot
September 10, 2022 12:23 pm

The average max T at the South Pole is -15 F in Jan and Dec. Much of the EAIS is far colder. It’s not going to melt. Its retreat ended 3000 years ago.

KcTaz
Reply to  John Tillman
September 11, 2022 1:25 am

Colder than that, per this.

Antarctica climate: average weather, temperature …

https://www.climatestotravel.com › climate › antarctica
At the South Pole, 2,800 meters (9,200 feet) above sea level, the average annual temperature is -49 °C (-56 °F), ranging from about -28 °C (-18 °F) in January to about -59.5 °C (-74.5 °F) in July. The lowest recorded temperature is -83 °C (-117 °F), while the highest is -12 °C (10 °F).

KcTaz
Reply to  HotScot
September 11, 2022 1:23 am

From these, perhaps, which the CAGW folks never, ever mention?

Multiple NASA Studies Confirm Bedrock Heat Flow Behind Melting Polar Ice, Not Global Warming
AUG 7, 2018
http://bit.ly/2xLx32g

HotScot
Reply to  KcTaz
September 11, 2022 9:19 am

91 volcanoes discovered under the west(?) Antarctic ice sheet in 2018.

rah
September 10, 2022 10:48 am

“Tipping points” and “Canarys in coal mines”. They are like broken records. No original thoughts or labels.

Gunga Din
Reply to  rah
September 10, 2022 1:15 pm

“The ‘Tipping Point’ you are about to hear is the same. The year has been changed to protect the activist.”

Brad-DXT
September 10, 2022 10:55 am

For fifty years the “experts” supposedly doing climate research have made predictions that were wrong.

If you had a finacial advisor that was consistantly wrong for fifty years, would you still hire them?

I know these scumbags keep moving the goalposts to try to stay relevant but enough is enough. More people need to made aware of their failure to even get one prediction correct.

More people need to be made aware that all these alarmist “climate scientists” are basing their predictions on computer simulations that they determine the parameters for. They don’t know all the parameters – no one does.

The leftist alarmists depend on FUD. The majority of the population is not scientifically inclined so we have to be able to make emotional appeals to why the alarmists should not be listened to.
It will be easier when there are masses of people broke, cold, and hungry this winter. Be prepared to educate the masses while covering your six.

Orson
Reply to  Brad-DXT
September 10, 2022 11:49 am

I did a quick Internet search dive on these authors funding sources. Here’s what I learned. Three writers funded by the UK based Leverhulme Trust. This appears to be wealthy source with a broad spectrum of do-Goodes activities from human trafficking to incremental basic science research to improving volcanic eruption modeling. In short, this appears pretty optimal.

One other author heralds frm the Alan Turing Institute. So, improved climate change related modeling?

But most, a majority of the authors sport sponsorship by European Research Council funding. This outfit was founded by the European Commission, ie, the EUs authoritarian paymasters.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Research_Council

This effort appears to parallel the National Research Council in the US.

So, establishmentarian to the Max!

That’s about it. And therefore most in the present work are likely enamoured and guided by faux models? Not even the seriously real flesh-and-blood and sexy and human ones? Sure. Stupid is as stupid does.

Brad-DXT
Reply to  Orson
September 10, 2022 11:59 am

Dave Fair
Reply to  Orson
September 10, 2022 12:03 pm

Establishmentarian to the Marx!

AndyHce
Reply to  Brad-DXT
September 10, 2022 3:20 pm

The have been articles claiming that Hansen, Ehrlich, and other such loons have been “eerily correct” and “amazing prescient” in their predications, that all have come true as delivered. That is the information the faithful receive, thus that is what they know.

Brad-DXT
Reply to  AndyHce
September 10, 2022 10:15 pm

The claims have been proven false and people will be more willing to accept that they have been lied to when they are broke, cold, and hungry.

Mother Nature is a cruel mistress. Reality will bite them in the ass – hard.

CD in Wisconsin
September 10, 2022 11:11 am

I am waiting patiently for a tipping point to get triggered for the CAGW narrative…..for its collapse.

Reply to  CD in Wisconsin
September 10, 2022 4:37 pm

The tipping point for the CAGW house of cards built on the AGW foundation. which is mild harmless global warming for the past 47 years, some of which wa caused by greenhouse gas emissions.

Every warning of climate doom — from CAGW to the Nut Zero panic response to CAGW — is piled on that foundation and it is collapsing as the global average temperature has barely changed in the past seven years. Any effect from CO2 has to get weaker as saturation is approached. And the effect was already mild, looking at downwelling radiation in the past 20 years.

Last edited 22 days ago by Richard Greene
Reply to  CD in Wisconsin
September 10, 2022 9:52 pm

The problem is, that there do appear to have been climate ‘tipping points’ in the past – where the earth just suddenly froze over for a million years, for example.
No one seems to really know why. They mutter about CO2, but even they dont sound convinced.

Michael E McHenry
September 10, 2022 11:25 am

I have a solution to climate change. All governments should cut off all research grants to academia that are for climate research. The “climate” will become remarkably quiet.

Graemethecat
Reply to  Michael E McHenry
September 10, 2022 1:11 pm

They keep telling us that “the Science is settled”, so why do they still need funding?

Reply to  Graemethecat
September 10, 2022 4:40 pm

Keep the mud slinging on the wall — more scaremongering every year — to see what sticks. Propaganda can’t stop — it has to accelerate to keep people in fear. Next month, expect scientists to claim climate change will kill your dog! Or cause warts.

KcTaz
Reply to  Richard Greene
September 11, 2022 1:16 am

Bill Gates, or one of his NWO/WEF cohorts has already said we need to kill our dogs and other pets because they eat too much. They don’t want to wait for climate change to do it.

Paul Blase
Reply to  Michael E McHenry
September 10, 2022 4:30 pm

But the political leaders need a crisis! How else can they justify increasing their control?

Matt Kiro
Reply to  Michael E McHenry
September 10, 2022 5:08 pm

I suggest all governments use only solar and wind power and leave all the fossil fuels for the rest of us

Dusty
September 10, 2022 11:28 am

“Giant ice sheets, ocean currents and permafrost regions may already have passed point of irreversible change”

May implies may not.

Mike Lowe
Reply to  Dusty
September 10, 2022 12:53 pm

And, as I frequently remind these worriers, they are always talking about future threats and developments (like superior improved EV batteries) which have NEVER eventuated. Superb and unlimited optimism is a requirement for these folk!

Duane
September 10, 2022 11:38 am

Tipping into what, exactly? The planet has been far warmer at various times in the past and nothing tipped over. We are the product of constant climate change ever since the earth acquired an atmosphere and oceans, across billions of years.

Reply to  Duane
September 10, 2022 9:58 pm

Well unfortunately – because I am 100% ‘climate denier’ these days – it appears that it may have tipped over in the past. Snowball earth and hot house earth seem to be well supported as long term stable periods of climate, radically different from today.

But since we havent a clue really why these periods happened, any claim that human activity may push us in that direction is relatively meaningless.

Mac
September 10, 2022 11:43 am

This from the University of Exeter I believe. I think it’s disgusting that universities have descended into this.

Reply to  Mac
September 10, 2022 9:59 pm

It’s what happens when left wing government starts sending everyone to university and giving degrees away like candy.

Tim Spence
September 10, 2022 11:47 am

Peak stupidity has already peaked

Dave Fair
Reply to  Tim Spence
September 10, 2022 12:04 pm

Tim, you are underestimating stupidity.

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  Tim Spence
September 10, 2022 3:59 pm

Einstein would have disagreed

KcTaz
Reply to  Tim Spence
September 11, 2022 1:12 am

I fear it’s just beginning, Tim, and progressing at a truly phenomenal rate.

Dave Fair
September 10, 2022 11:52 am

What tipping points were reached in the Eemian Interglacial? You know, the interglacial that was much warmer for longer periods than our Holocene Interglacial.

H.R.
Reply to  Dave Fair
September 11, 2022 5:41 pm

Ummm… well, the Earth did tip into another glacial period. So there are tipping points, Dave.

Dave Fair
Reply to  H.R.
September 12, 2022 8:12 am

Two different things, H.R.

H.R.
Reply to  Dave Fair
September 13, 2022 10:16 pm

I’m taking the long view, Dave. Where were the doomsayers at the end of the Eemian? Who foresaw the Holocene coming?

Those were tipping points. Just not the ones that the doomsayers want to talk about. The tipping points the doomsayers are flogging have never happened and are unlikely ever to happen until our sun becomes a red giant. Then look out! It’s on my calendar to call in sick that day.

Doonman
September 10, 2022 11:58 am

Synthesized and model based studies sure get a lot of attention in the press.

I have model based study of all my relatives life spans. It comes from genealogically observing their death certificates. It says they all die anyway no matter what they do to try and prevent it. It turns out that there was a tipping point reached in the early 20th century where they all started living longer. I wonder why that was.

Reply to  Doonman
September 10, 2022 4:41 pm

Bad news gets attention
Just like predictions of a coming ice age in the mid-1970s.

Reply to  Doonman
September 10, 2022 10:01 pm

It turns out that there was a tipping point reached in the early 20th century where they all started living longer. I wonder why that was.

Chocolate. Massive corelation in longevity versus availability of chocolate. Can I have a massive research grant, please?

Clyde Spencer
September 10, 2022 12:04 pm

Tipping Points are not unlike the admonishment of children by their parents that if they don’t behave the Bogey Man will get them. Also, about as realistic.

Reply to  Clyde Spencer
September 10, 2022 4:43 pm

CO2 is the boogeyman.
The children have been brainwashed.
So have most adults
It’s painful to see such stupidity
Like wearing masks to prevent spreading a virus.

Hans Erren
September 10, 2022 12:19 pm

From the supplementary material:

Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). We take qualitative change for GrIS collapse to be loss of the majority of its volume of ~7m SLE (38, 44). Threshold estimates for GrIS of 1.5°C (0.8-3°C) largely follow (39), with additional support for a best estimate of ~1.5°C from both modelling and palaeorecords (40, 43, 44, 111, 112). Negative surface mass balance from 2000-2005 (at regional warming of ~2°C, i.e. at ~0.8°C GMST) and early warning signals from Central-west Greenland after regional 2°C provide a lower threshold bound (11, 37). For the upper bound, (44) indicates 5m of sea level rise equivalent (SLE) from GrIS is locked in at >3°C, (64) indicates that ~2.5°C is likely sufficient for collapse in >10ky and ~4.5°C is sufficient for collapse within 6ky (so we estimate >3°C is therefore potentially sufficient for GrIS collapse in <10kyr), palaeoclimate data suggests past GrIS and WAIS retreats occurred in the 300-400 ppm CO2 range (i.e. ~0.5-2.5°C at an Earth system sensitivity of ~6°C per CO2 doubling, but also depending on orbital forcing) (42), and IPCC AR6 assess >3°C as leading to near complete GrIS loss over multiple millennia (and that >2.5°C was sufficient for this in the mid-Pliocene Warm Period), so we tighten the upper bound to 3°C. We give the GrIS threshold range high confidence based on multiple consistent estimates from different evidence bases (modelling and palaeorecords).

Climatesensitivity of 6°/2xCO2 and timeframe of 10000 years.
Where is the beef?

Richard Page
Reply to  Hans Erren
September 10, 2022 8:05 pm

The whole team got funding and they produced a report to a) get their names on papers (publish or perish) and b) to justify the funding they received. The fact that that the report is a complete pile of steaming garbage is, quite frankly, irrelevant – there is no accountability, no oversight and certainly no ethical considerations. Every report published is a payday!

September 10, 2022 12:27 pm

There is a climate tipping point going into and out of the ice-age. But there is none raising temperatures above the interglacial ones.

marlene
September 10, 2022 12:39 pm

Quack, quack – again and again. Especially when “climate change” is used as a scapegoat to blame additional restrictions on our health, wealth, and freedom on their go-to “climate change.”

Vuk
September 10, 2022 12:49 pm

It is not that climate is at tipping points, it is that some of so called climate scientists have reached their personal carriers tipping point realising they have dekcuf up science.
This reminds me of a comment by ancient Greek philosopher Aristotle who wrote of a stallion who jumped of a cliff when it realised it mistakenly mated with its own mother.
When time comes there will be no shortage of welcoming cliffs for any of the ‘climate’ stallions.

Last edited 22 days ago by Vuk
Paul Hurley (aka PaulH)
September 10, 2022 12:54 pm

Only 5 tipping points? Why not 15, or 50? I think we passed the tipping point of tipping points when the 10 million climate refugees failed to materialize in 2010. (Or was it 150 million? 1.2 billion?)

John Boland
September 10, 2022 1:09 pm

What kind of science is this? Predict a bunch of stuff, throw out the ones you got wrong, move the goal post, make a bunch of new predictions, rinse and repeat. Did the ancient Mayans make a comeback while I was busy raising my kids?

Reply to  John Boland
September 10, 2022 4:44 pm

100% wrong since the 1960s
Yet the predictions continue
The media does not report th wrong predictions.

Reply to  John Boland
September 10, 2022 10:03 pm

Who said it was science?

Poppy.C.
Reply to  John Boland
September 10, 2022 11:21 pm

What you describe, John, sounds like the ‘science’ found in the land of Balnibarbi. See the famous satire of Johnathan Swift of 1726.

Robert W Turner
September 10, 2022 1:13 pm

I can beat that, I have recognized 360 tipping points, becoming so tipped that it comes full circle.

MarkW
September 10, 2022 1:26 pm

Why were none of these so called “tipping points” not tipped over during the much warmer Holocene Optimum?

AndyHce
September 10, 2022 3:01 pm

On the other hand, demon possession of the weak minded is already up 500%.

Chris Hanley
September 10, 2022 3:06 pm

‘Tipping points’ come and go:
comment image

jtl
September 10, 2022 3:33 pm

I am waiting for Thwaites — which I’m told is hanging on by its fingernails — to just break off so we can see what really happens, and move on.

September 10, 2022 3:34 pm

The only tipping-point that actually tipped, that we have seen so far, is the tipping-point when the increased CO2 levels started to trigger great world-wide plant growth and the greening of semi desert areas back to life. Sea-level rise and temperature rise continue to disappoint us.

September 10, 2022 4:30 pm

Tipping Point #1:
The tipping point will be reached when the climate gets a few degrees warmer, and finally reaches the level of the Holocene Climate Optimum from 5000 to 9000 years ago. At that point, the climate will be the best climate for humans, animals, and especially plants, in the past 9000 years. Now the climate is only the best in the past 5000 years. So let’s hope for that tipping point.

Tipping Point #2:
When Moderator Charles Rotten, who is sitting on his usual barstool in a seedy bar, down by the docks, next to his able-bodied assistant, Candy. has had too much to drink and falls off his barstool onto the floor. That is his tipping point. MODERATOR BAIT

Frank Hansen
September 10, 2022 4:43 pm

Al Gore was probably thinking about his former wife, Tipper Gore

Bryan A
Reply to  Frank Hansen
September 10, 2022 6:58 pm

Being married to him for as long as she had been led to her nickname Tipsy

Reply to  Bryan A
September 10, 2022 10:07 pm

She can’t be a million miles from that old Irish soak, ‘Tipper’ Airey….
…I’ll get my coat..

September 10, 2022 5:49 pm

The authors are explicit about the basis of their predictions.

“Based on current observations, paleorecords, and model runs subsequent to (1), we draw up a longlist of proposed climate tipping elements. Together with expert judgment for each proposed element, we summarize the evidence and confidence levels for self-perpetuation, temperature thresholds, hysteresis or irreversibility, transition timescales, and global or regional impacts on climate.”

In brief, they wave their hands boldly.

Richard Page
Reply to  Larry
September 10, 2022 8:15 pm

They got paid and that’s really all they care about. Time to defund the educationally entitled a-holes; it’s no longer amusing, they are wilfully committing fraud dressed up as these garbage reports.

Edward Katz
September 10, 2022 6:11 pm

Since none of the tipping points has really occurred with the disastrous effects predicted, the alarmists have now decided that if they hype five or more at a time, the odds of it happening are greatly improved. It’s the old story: if you go to the plate often enough, you’ll eventually get a hit, but it won’t be enough to win a batting title.

niceguy
September 10, 2022 6:47 pm

There was a time when I thought the GHG thing was legit. (Not the “renewable energy” thing though.)
Then they told me about the positive retroaction thing and the tipping points. I knew then it was bunk.

Reply to  niceguy
September 10, 2022 10:08 pm

Well the GHG thing is legit. It probably with the real world negative feedback equates to a fraction of a degree per doubling of CO2.

Its all the other stuff they layered on top

niceguy
Reply to  Leo Smith
September 12, 2022 4:37 pm

Well yeah I guess you can say there is some blocking of some radiation and it causes some change in some direction… Until that can be quantified by effective measurement, I call it bunk, like much of nutrition.

Jeff Alberts
September 10, 2022 7:03 pm

I’ve been fed up with tipping point claims ever since they were first made. They’re so obviously ridiculous and impossible.

Bob
September 10, 2022 7:49 pm

Another load of trash from shameless green devils.

Roaddog
September 10, 2022 10:30 pm

More of the same from the Potsdam Institute. Still come up hard against the paywalled article.

The most recent survey of the Great Barrier Reef reported that the Reef exhibits more live coral than has been observed in 36 years, which is how long this survey has been taking place.

And yet, they’re still ALARMED about the future of coral reefs. Face it, objective reality means nothing.

https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/risk-of-passing-multiple-climate-tipping-points-escalates-above-1-5degc-global-warming

mark
September 10, 2022 10:43 pm

Doesn’t basic control theory tell us that if we are in a system that has “tipping points”, we would not have got this far as a liveable planet. ?

Surely once we tip, we get a runaway….? The climate system appears to me to be inherently stable, albeit with some quite wide ranges as shown in the various paleo records.

Rod Evans
September 11, 2022 12:08 am

Picture the scene. It is 2050 in down town Jerusalem NY Keuka Lake.
The Green Rebel action committee chaired by its leader Monty Python, has called a meeting.

“Right come to order, listen up, something must be done, it can’t go on like this. We have got to stop this easy energy availability My question is, what have the fossil fuels ever done for us?”
A short pause as the band of disciples ponder the question.
Bernard pierces the silence with, “electricity”
” Huh, electricity, dismissively retorts Monty”
“And engines” says Dale,
“Well of course engines” says Monty patronisingly “That goes without saying, but apart from electricity and engines what has fossil fuel ever done for us, eh?”
“Motor bikes” “Camping stoves” Motor Cars” “Tractors” “Aeroplanes” the thinking process is slow but accelerating.
“What about Plastic” suggests Dale “and lubricants”
“Ah yes lubricant”, a wistful smile crosses Michael’s face as he remembers the multiple uses of Vaseline petroleum jelly..
“All right, but apart from electricity, engines, motor bikes, motor cars, camping stoves, tractors, aeroplanes, plastic and lubricants what has fossil fuel ever done for us, that’s what I want to know?”
Monty’s followers are churning their grey matter.
“Gas”……
“Meetings closed, same time next week” says downcast Monty, as he takes off his religion’s green arm band, in case it is seen outside of the group by the ‘realists’, “if anyone wants a lift the EV’s outside”

Last edited 22 days ago by Rod Evans
KcTaz
Reply to  Rod Evans
September 11, 2022 1:08 am

Personally, I think these “scientists” have been tippling way too much and need to join AA.

observa
September 11, 2022 12:13 am

Is anyone else fed up with us approaching but never actually crossing all those dangerous tipping points?

No I’m ADHD and thrive on all this variety-
Prevent tree extinctions or face global ecological catastrophe, scientists warn | Trees and forests | The Guardian

observa
Reply to  observa
September 11, 2022 8:05 am
KcTaz
September 11, 2022 12:53 am

A few mens’ thoughts on Stupidity. It appears our age has proven them correct.

Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I’m not sure about the former.
Albert Einstein

Never underestimate
the power
of human stupidity.
Robert A. Heinlein

(1907 – 1988, American science fiction writer)

There is no limit
to stupidity.
Space itself is said
to be bounded
by its own curvature,
but stupidity
continues beyond infinity.
Gene Wolfe

(*1931, American science fiction and fantasy writer)

Peta of Newark
September 11, 2022 1:41 am

They are talking about Positive Feedback (events)

OK, a dam holding back water with a small but growing leak or an avalanche of snow (same thing) might qualify as positively feedback systems, there is actually only one positve feedback system inside Climate.

And that is the science itself (as predicted by Eisenhower in his farewell speech)

What is simultaneously reassuring but also very worrying, is that all positive feedback systems (in the absence of a larger more powerful negative feedback) destroy themselves.
They completely self-destruct. Every. Single. Time.

Reassurance comes in that after 5 Billion years, Ma Nature has weeded out all the positive feedbacks and sent them (did they send themselves) to the Recycle Bin which was promptly emptied.

Worry & Concern come from the positive feedback system that is = Climate Science.
When it self-destructs as it surely will (you tell ’em Shirley) – how many innocents will go down with it?

The Innocents, in my book at least, are those who imagine that carbohydrate is any sort of Staple Diet for The Human Animal.
i.e. That ever rising yields and consumption of same means that ‘Things have never been better
Sorry lads: Bad News. The Drug is doing the talking when you make that assertion.

We are talking one he11 of a lot of innocents………..

Last edited 22 days ago by Peta of Newark
Yooper
September 11, 2022 4:43 am

Cap had some fun with an extreme prediction, and we do not have to wait years to see if it’s correct, just a couple of weeks!

https://electroverse.co/carrington-like-coronal-mass-ejection-cme-to-strike-earth-on-friday-september-23/

September 11, 2022 5:40 am

Why does anyone still believe this crap after many decades: http://www.debunkingclimate.com/failedpredictions.html

Anthony
September 11, 2022 7:02 am

They always mention Greenland… A place which would take over 12,000 years to melt at present temps(maybe if the place was actually melting)… Sadly for them, by then, we will be back in a full ice age….

Gyan1
September 11, 2022 9:37 am

It’s hard to believe anyone could be so deluded as to believe that something with no empirical support could be true. Living in a fantasy pretend world is what ideologues do.

September 11, 2022 10:22 am

Food, shelter, clothing.

Last iooked those are the only three items you cannot place in order of needs.

OK, we will limit warming to 1.5C and take away your food, your house or your clothing. Forever. You pick.

Last edited 21 days ago by ferdberple
Stephen Skinner
September 11, 2022 10:50 am

Surely there must be maga-tipping points behind these tipping points that are irreversible and will affect disabled and disadvantaged non-binary POC first and longer than anyone else?

Tom Abbott
September 12, 2022 7:26 am

From the article: “It shows five dangerous tipping points may already have been passed due to the 1.1C of global heating caused by humanity to date.”

That’s what it was in 2016, but it’s cooled off since then, down 0.5C from the 2016 highpoint.

So what does 0.7C of global heating cause? Still five tipping points? What if it continues to cool? I guess those tipping points will diminish. Do you know that it won’t continue to cool? Answer: No, you don’t.

comment image

Also, the year 1998 is statistically tied with the year 2016 for the warmest year in the satellite era. We didn’t get five tipping points after 1998. Instead it cooled off and nothing tipped over.

This author ought to study a little climate history to get the proper perspective on the temperatures.

Last edited 20 days ago by Tom Abbott
Tom Abbott
September 12, 2022 7:37 am

From the article: “Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond a warming threshold, leading to substantial Earth system impacts.”

Name one example of this happening in Earth’s recent past. Describe the impact on the Earth system.

This is all pure speculation on the part of these authors. This is the state of alarmist climate science today. It’s all about scaring people using ficticious disasters.

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