Essay by Eric Worrall
Is anyone else fed up with us approaching but never actually crossing all those dangerous tipping points?
World on brink of five ‘disastrous’ climate tipping points, study finds
Giant ice sheets, ocean currents and permafrost regions may already have passed point of irreversible change
Damian CarringtonEnvironment editor
@dpcarringtonFri 9 Sep 2022 04.00 AESTThe climate crisis has driven the world to the brink of multiple “disastrous” tipping points, according to a major study.
It shows five dangerous tipping points may already have been passed due to the 1.1C of global heating caused by humanity to date.
These include the collapse of Greenland’s ice cap, eventually producing a huge sea level rise, the collapse of a key current in the north Atlantic, disrupting rain upon which billions of people depend for food, and an abrupt melting of carbon-rich permafrost.
At 1.5C of heating, the minimum rise now expected, four of the five tipping points move from being possible to likely, the analysis said. Also at 1.5C, an additional five tipping points become possible, including changes to vast northern forests and the loss of almost all mountain glaciers.
In total, the researchers found evidence for 16 tipping points, with the final six requiring global heating of at least 2C to be triggered, according to the scientists’ estimations. The tipping points would take effect on timescales varying from a few years to centuries.
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Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/sep/08/world-on-brink-five-climate-tipping-points-study-finds
The abstract of the study;
Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points
David I. Armstrong McKay* https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0020-7461 d.mckay@exeter.ac.uk
Arie Staal https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5409-1436
Jesse F. Abrams https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0411-8519
Ricarda Winkelmann https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1248-3217
Boris Sakschewski https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7230-9723
Sina Loriani https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6660-960X
Ingo Fetzer https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7335-5679
Sarah E. Cornell https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4367-1296
Johan Rockström
Timothy M. Lenton* https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6725-7498 d.mckay@exeter.ac.uk9 Sep 2022
Vol 377, Issue 6611
Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond a warming threshold, leading to substantial Earth system impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide a revised shortlist of global “core” tipping elements and regional “impact” tipping elements and their temperature thresholds. Current global warming of ~1.1°C above preindustrial temperatures already lies within the lower end of some tipping point uncertainty ranges. Several tipping points may be triggered in the Paris Agreement range of 1.5 to <2°C global warming, with many more likely at the 2 to 3°C of warming expected on current policy trajectories. This strengthens the evidence base for urgent action to mitigate climate change and to develop improved tipping point risk assessment, early warning capability, and adaptation strategies.
Read more (paywalled): https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950
Unfortunately the study is paywalled, so I can’t tell you the timeframe of these alleged tipping points. Not that the predicted dates matter that much – in my experience, tipping point predictions are usually quietly ignored or deleted when the deadline expires.
From the supplementary material:
Climatesensitivity of 6°/2xCO2 and timeframe of 10000 years.
Where is the beef?
The whole team got funding and they produced a report to a) get their names on papers (publish or perish) and b) to justify the funding they received. The fact that that the report is a complete pile of steaming garbage is, quite frankly, irrelevant – there is no accountability, no oversight and certainly no ethical considerations. Every report published is a payday!
There is a climate tipping point going into and out of the ice-age. But there is none raising temperatures above the interglacial ones.
Quack, quack – again and again. Especially when “climate change” is used as a scapegoat to blame additional restrictions on our health, wealth, and freedom on their go-to “climate change.”
It is not that climate is at tipping points, it is that some of so called climate scientists have reached their personal carriers tipping point realising they have dekcuf up science.
This reminds me of a comment by ancient Greek philosopher Aristotle who wrote of a stallion who jumped of a cliff when it realised it mistakenly mated with its own mother.
When time comes there will be no shortage of welcoming cliffs for any of the ‘climate’ stallions.
Only 5 tipping points? Why not 15, or 50? I think we passed the tipping point of tipping points when the 10 million climate refugees failed to materialize in 2010. (Or was it 150 million? 1.2 billion?)
What kind of science is this? Predict a bunch of stuff, throw out the ones you got wrong, move the goal post, make a bunch of new predictions, rinse and repeat. Did the ancient Mayans make a comeback while I was busy raising my kids?
100% wrong since the 1960s
Yet the predictions continue
The media does not report th wrong predictions.
Who said it was science?
What you describe, John, sounds like the ‘science’ found in the land of Balnibarbi. See the famous satire of Johnathan Swift of 1726.
I can beat that, I have recognized 360 tipping points, becoming so tipped that it comes full circle.
Why were none of these so called “tipping points” not tipped over during the much warmer Holocene Optimum?
On the other hand, demon possession of the weak minded is already up 500%.
‘Tipping points’ come and go:
I am waiting for Thwaites — which I’m told is hanging on by its fingernails — to just break off so we can see what really happens, and move on.
The only tipping-point that actually tipped, that we have seen so far, is the tipping-point when the increased CO2 levels started to trigger great world-wide plant growth and the greening of semi desert areas back to life. Sea-level rise and temperature rise continue to disappoint us.
Tipping Point #1:
The tipping point will be reached when the climate gets a few degrees warmer, and finally reaches the level of the Holocene Climate Optimum from 5000 to 9000 years ago. At that point, the climate will be the best climate for humans, animals, and especially plants, in the past 9000 years. Now the climate is only the best in the past 5000 years. So let’s hope for that tipping point.
Tipping Point #2:
When Moderator Charles Rotten, who is sitting on his usual barstool in a seedy bar, down by the docks, next to his able-bodied assistant, Candy. has had too much to drink and falls off his barstool onto the floor. That is his tipping point. MODERATOR BAIT
Al Gore was probably thinking about his former wife, Tipper Gore
Being married to him for as long as she had been led to her nickname Tipsy
She can’t be a million miles from that old Irish soak, ‘Tipper’ Airey….
…I’ll get my coat..
The authors are explicit about the basis of their predictions.
“Based on current observations, paleorecords, and model runs subsequent to (1), we draw up a longlist of proposed climate tipping elements. Together with expert judgment for each proposed element, we summarize the evidence and confidence levels for self-perpetuation, temperature thresholds, hysteresis or irreversibility, transition timescales, and global or regional impacts on climate.”
In brief, they wave their hands boldly.
They got paid and that’s really all they care about. Time to defund the educationally entitled a-holes; it’s no longer amusing, they are wilfully committing fraud dressed up as these garbage reports.
Since none of the tipping points has really occurred with the disastrous effects predicted, the alarmists have now decided that if they hype five or more at a time, the odds of it happening are greatly improved. It’s the old story: if you go to the plate often enough, you’ll eventually get a hit, but it won’t be enough to win a batting title.
There was a time when I thought the GHG thing was legit. (Not the “renewable energy” thing though.)
Then they told me about the positive retroaction thing and the tipping points. I knew then it was bunk.
Well the GHG thing is legit. It probably with the real world negative feedback equates to a fraction of a degree per doubling of CO2.
Its all the other stuff they layered on top
Well yeah I guess you can say there is some blocking of some radiation and it causes some change in some direction… Until that can be quantified by effective measurement, I call it bunk, like much of nutrition.
I’ve been fed up with tipping point claims ever since they were first made. They’re so obviously ridiculous and impossible.
Another load of trash from shameless green devils.
More of the same from the Potsdam Institute. Still come up hard against the paywalled article.
The most recent survey of the Great Barrier Reef reported that the Reef exhibits more live coral than has been observed in 36 years, which is how long this survey has been taking place.
And yet, they’re still ALARMED about the future of coral reefs. Face it, objective reality means nothing.
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/risk-of-passing-multiple-climate-tipping-points-escalates-above-1-5degc-global-warming
Doesn’t basic control theory tell us that if we are in a system that has “tipping points”, we would not have got this far as a liveable planet. ?
Surely once we tip, we get a runaway….? The climate system appears to me to be inherently stable, albeit with some quite wide ranges as shown in the various paleo records.
Picture the scene. It is 2050 in down town Jerusalem NY Keuka Lake.
The Green Rebel action committee chaired by its leader Monty Python, has called a meeting.
“Right come to order, listen up, something must be done, it can’t go on like this. We have got to stop this easy energy availability My question is, what have the fossil fuels ever done for us?”
A short pause as the band of disciples ponder the question.
Bernard pierces the silence with, “electricity”
” Huh, electricity, dismissively retorts Monty”
“And engines” says Dale,
“Well of course engines” says Monty patronisingly “That goes without saying, but apart from electricity and engines what has fossil fuel ever done for us, eh?”
“Motor bikes” “Camping stoves” Motor Cars” “Tractors” “Aeroplanes” the thinking process is slow but accelerating.
“What about Plastic” suggests Dale “and lubricants”
“Ah yes lubricant”, a wistful smile crosses Michael’s face as he remembers the multiple uses of Vaseline petroleum jelly..
“All right, but apart from electricity, engines, motor bikes, motor cars, camping stoves, tractors, aeroplanes, plastic and lubricants what has fossil fuel ever done for us, that’s what I want to know?”
Monty’s followers are churning their grey matter.
“Gas”……
“Meetings closed, same time next week” says downcast Monty, as he takes off his religion’s green arm band, in case it is seen outside of the group by the ‘realists’, “if anyone wants a lift the EV’s outside”
Personally, I think these “scientists” have been tippling way too much and need to join AA.
Is anyone else fed up with us approaching but never actually crossing all those dangerous tipping points?
No I’m ADHD and thrive on all this variety-
Prevent tree extinctions or face global ecological catastrophe, scientists warn | Trees and forests | The Guardian
Wow look at this as they’ve got really good dooming graphics-
Earth barrelling towards multiple ‘irreversible’ climate tipping points under current warming rate, study says (msn.com)
The poles squashing in and the sides bulging out and there’s things hanging on by their fingernails-
Antarctica Doomsday Thwaites Glacier news, updates | news.com.au — Australia’s leading news site
or threads-
Giant Antarctic iceberg ‘hanging by a thread’, say scientists | Antarctica | The Guardian
A few mens’ thoughts on Stupidity. It appears our age has proven them correct.
Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I’m not sure about the former.
Albert Einstein
Never underestimate the power of human stupidity. Robert A. Heinlein
(1907 – 1988, American science fiction writer)
There is no limit to stupidity. Space itself is said to be bounded by its own curvature, but stupidity continues beyond infinity. Gene Wolfe
(*1931, American science fiction and fantasy writer)
They are talking about Positive Feedback (events)
OK, a dam holding back water with a small but growing leak or an avalanche of snow (same thing) might qualify as positively feedback systems, there is actually only one positve feedback system inside Climate.
And that is the science itself (as predicted by Eisenhower in his farewell speech)
What is simultaneously reassuring but also very worrying, is that all positive feedback systems (in the absence of a larger more powerful negative feedback) destroy themselves.
They completely self-destruct. Every. Single. Time.
Reassurance comes in that after 5 Billion years, Ma Nature has weeded out all the positive feedbacks and sent them (did they send themselves) to the Recycle Bin which was promptly emptied.
Worry & Concern come from the positive feedback system that is = Climate Science.
When it self-destructs as it surely will (you tell ’em Shirley) – how many innocents will go down with it?
The Innocents, in my book at least, are those who imagine that carbohydrate is any sort of Staple Diet for The Human Animal.
i.e. That ever rising yields and consumption of same means that ‘Things have never been better‘
Sorry lads: Bad News. The Drug is doing the talking when you make that assertion.
We are talking one he11 of a lot of innocents………..