Climate Change Weekly #445: Where Are All the Hurricanes? They Ain’t Here Yet

From Heartland Daily News

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IN THIS ISSUE:

  • Where Are All the Hurricanes? They Ain’t Here Yet
  • Podcast of the Week: Connecting the Great Reset and Climate Policy (Guest: Charles Steele)
  • Global Warming? Not in Australia
  • White House Science Advisor Punished For Corruption
  • Geoengineering to Remove Carbon Dioxide Proposed
  • Video of the Week: Exploring Energy – Biofuels
  • BONUS Video of the Week: Breaking Down Biden’s Climate Bill
  • Climate Comedy
  • Recommended Sites

Where Are All the Hurricanes? They Ain’t Here Yet
hurricane radar

Editor’s Note: As numerous headlines and top stories in various corporate media outlets attested at the time, in May the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted the 2022 hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin would be a busy one with above-normal numbers of hurricanes, possibly quite strong. As noted in a couple of Climate Realism posts recently, that prediction has not panned out. As I write this on August 30, not a single hurricane has formed in the Atlantic Basin since the official beginning of hurricane season on June 1. While not completely unprecedented, this is quite rare. Indeed, even the number of tropical storms and the length of time they were organized as named storms is well below average, this year.
 
Things may change, and they probably will. More tropical storms and even some hurricanes will almost undoubtedly form in the waning months of hurricane season 2022, but based on what we have seen thus far, it is highly likely NOAA’s ominous warning of more, more powerful storms in 2022 will fail to materialize—a fact for which we can all be thankful.
 
Heartland Senior Fellow and award-winning meteorologist Anthony Watts recently discussed the unusual—confounding to NOAA—hurricane season so far, how most mainstream media outlets are trying to downplay the good news about hurricanes with a “just watch out; its coming and its bad” spin, and what it says about predictions of climate disaster. Climate Change Weekly presents Watts’ article, in full, below.

‘Hurricane Season Slowest Start in 30 Years’—Media Spins ‘Damage Control’ Stories

NOAA hurricane season 2022

Back in May, many media outlets ran with this headline courtesy of a press release from NOAA:

NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Media outlets like Houston Public Media trumpeted it as if it were fact, saying,

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast, predicting an “above normal” hurricane season.

NOAA says there is a 70 percent chance of 14-21 storms forming, with as many as ten potentially becoming hurricanes. Three to six of these storms could become major hurricanes. …

NOAA administrator Dr. Rick Spinrad said the past two hurricane seasons were “extremely active” and the first to run out of their annual 21 storm names in back-to-back years.

Spinrad also detailed the improvements that NOAA forecasts have made over the past few years. He attributed their advancements to NOAA’s weather forecast system, Hurricane Hunter flight data, and the administration’s ability to accurately pinpoint at-risk areas.

“Along with better science, we’ll ultimately make way for better hurricane forecast model guidance for years to come,” Spinrad said.

That “better science” has so far been a bust. The problem is, as nearly three months have elapsed since the official start of hurricane season on June 1, not one has yet materialized.

As The Weather Channel (TWC) reported this week, “It’s The Atlantic Hurricane Season’s Least Active Start In 30 Years”

TWC made some succinct points:

  • By one metric, the start of the 2022 hurricane season is the least active since 1992.
  • Two recent Gulf disturbances failed to become tropical depressions or storms.
  • Activity is expected to pick up in the coming weeks. …

While the number of storms isn’t pacing far below the season-to-date average, Colorado State University tropical scientist Phil Klotzbach pointed out it was the first time in 40 years that no named storms formed from July 3–August 22 in the Atlantic Basin. …

As of Aug. 20, the 2022 hurricane season’s ACE index is pacing at the lowest of any year since 1992, according to Kim Wood, associate professor at Mississippi State University.

Short for Accumulated Cyclone Energy, the ACE index sums up how long storms last and how intense they become, instead of just raw counts of storms.

Each of the Atlantic Basin’s three storms was relatively weak and short-lived, though Bonnie went on to become a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific Basin.

That ACE value, tracked by hurricane expert Dr. Ryan Maue, showed a marked drop to just 24% of normal for the year to date, as seen highlighted in this table:

cyclone energy

Both NOAA and the media have now gone into damage control mode, insisting with a new press release on August 4, 2022, that with the “better science” they claim they have, it could still happen.

Some of the headlines included:

NOAA hurricane predictions 2022

Yet now, after almost four weeks have passed, there have been no hurricanes, no tropical storms, not even a significant disturbance.

According to this graphic from the National Hurricane Center, taken at 1:37 PM EDT Fri Aug 26, 2022, the Atlantic is devoid of any storms at all:

atlantic ocean hurricane cyclones 2022

We are often told by climate experts and climate activists to “follow the science,” but when science fails to produce accurate forecasts, who should we follow then?

SOURCE: Climate Realism


Podcast of the Week

https://embed.podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/connecting-the-great-reset-and-climate-policy/id351143631?i=1000578186805
Global elites at the World Economic Forum are using climate change and ESG efforts to push a great reset of capitalism. This authoritarian push will trample property rights and personal liberties in order to satisfy corporate and government elites concerned with how the world should look. Profit must be replaced by amorphous social and environmental credit scores with everyone assigned a biometric id: a dystopian nightmare straight out of “A Brave New World.”

Subscribe to the Environment & Climate News podcast on Apple PodcastsiHeartSpotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And be sure to leave a positive review!


Get your Copy at Amazon TODAY!

Climate at a Glance for Teachers and Students Heartland Institute

Global Warming? Not in Australia

australia at night from space

The Quadrant reports the system of satellites crossing high above Australia, maintained by the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) for the past 40 years, has recorded no warming over the continent for the past decade.

Through June 2022, the UAH’s satellites have recorded no warming for seven years and 10 months globally, either. According to The Quadrant, the UAH’s temperature records are confirmed by the ground-based HadCRUT series, which have recorded no warming for 86 months.

The Quadrant reports the data from the satellites is not cherry-picked but instead “is calculated by a method taking all months into account. Indeed it’s the method recommended by the godfather of global temperature measuring, Prof Phil Jones of the early HadCRUT global temperature series, also of 2009 Climategate email fame.”

Of note is the fact that not a single climate model managed to forecast the present pause in warming.

In addition, the UAH satellite record is

consistent with independent data from radiosonde measurements on weather balloons. Thousands of these balloons are launched every day.

On the global scale, satellite coverage is, of course, vastly superior to the three main terrestrial global temperature measuring systems HadCRUT, NASA-GISS and NOAA, which lack coverage of significant areas of the earth’s surface. Gaps includes the poles, large ocean areas, and much of Siberia and the African continent’s 30 million square kilometres.

SOURCE: The Quadrant


Heartland’s Must-read Climate Sites

climate realism website heartland institute
climate at a glance website heartland institute

White House Science Advisor Punished For Corruption

Jane Lubchenco White House Office of Science and Technology Policy

The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) has barred Jane Lubchenco, deputy director for climate and environment at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, from participating in activities or publications for five years, for violating the academy’s code of conduct.

The NAS found Lubchenco, a marine biologist, violated section 3 of its code of conduct, which requires members to “avoid those detrimental research practices that are clear violations of the fundamental tenets of research.”

Before joining the Biden administration, Lubchenco served in a variety of positions in academia, at research institutes, and in government, including Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration during the administration of President Barack Obama; president of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS; 1997-1998); with the International Council for Science (ICSU; 2002-2005); with the Ecological Society of America (1992-1999); and two terms as a presidentially nominated, Senate-confirmed member of the National Science Board (1996-2006); and was elected to the Council of the National Academy of Sciences and appointed to its Executive Committee. In addition, Lubchenco has served on the editorial boards of many of the major journals in her field, helping determine which articles are considered for publication and selecting which researchers are chosen to peer-review articles submitted to the journals.

The NAS’s censure of Lubchenco was based on a paper the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) was forced to retract in 2021. The Washington Post described the infraction as follows: “While serving as an editor for the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Lubchenco accepted an article for publication that was later retracted because it relied on outdated data, and because she has a personal relationship with one of the authors, who is her brother-in-law.” Both of those factors were violations of NAS policies. The NAS also noted Lubchenco had “recently published a related paper with the article’s authors.” Lubchenco had failed to disclose her personal connections to and work with the authors, a clear conflict of interest when choosing to decide whether to accept the paper for publication and editing it.

Lubchenco has been leading the Biden administration’s efforts to develop and standardize scientific integrity policies across government agencies. Talk about the fox guarding the henhouse!

The NAS created its code of conduct in 2018 and has since permanently expelled three members for violating it. Permanent suspension was the only punishment available. While Lubchenco was being investigated and her actions being judged, however, on June 24 the NAS altered its code to allow temporary suspensions. Lubchenco’s punishment under the NAS’s conduct code is the lightest handed out to date. One might conclude standards of conduct are different if one is a member of a presidential administration that controls millions of dollars in research funding.

According to Axios, the American Accountability Foundation has called on Lubchenco to resign or be fired.

“The American people deserve leaders in the White House who don’t use their positions of influence to put their thumb on the scales for friends and family. Dr. Jane Lubchenco does not meet that standard and does not deserve to be an Assistant to the President,” AAF founder Tom Jones said in a statement.

SOURCES: AxiosScience


Geoengineering to Remove Carbon Dioxide Proposed

vast ocean

With 50 times more carbon dioxide in the ocean than in the atmosphere, and with oceans covering about 70 percent of the Earth’s surface, some researchers are reexamining whether the oceans can, with a little help from humans, remove and store more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and create more-favorable conditions for sea life in the process.

A group of scientists released a report through the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NAS) in 2021 on various geoengineering possibilities to reduce the presumed threat of climate change. One option they examined was boosting phytoplankton production by introducing iron, an important nutrient for plankton, to the water. As a story in the Daily Beast notes, many parts of the ocean are low in iron. In those locations, called dead spots, even a relatively small addition of iron has been shown to produce large amounts of phytoplankton, removing a disproportionate amount of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere in the process. It also jumpstarts the food chain in those locations.

Ken Buesseler, a marine radiochemist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, has  researched ocean iron fertilization and was part of the team that wrote the NAS report. Buesseler and his colleagues found introducing iron into the ocean can sequester a large amount of carbon dioxide. His team estimates adding abundant waste iron, such as iron filings from industrial activities, into the oceans could, on a “very conservative” estimate, sequester as much as a gigaton of carbon dioxide each year.

According to scientists interviewed by the Daily Beast, it wouldn’t be hard or require a lot of resources to produce big, almost immediate results: phytoplankton blooms can form within 24 hours of the introduction of iron into under-mineralized areas of the ocean:

David Siegel, a professor of marine science at the University of California, Santa Barbara, told The Daily Beast that iron fertilization would also be pretty easy to do. You could simply get a 120-foot fishing boat and start deploying the iron where it’ll be most effective for stimulating phytoplankton growth.

“It can be done relatively cheaply. Each atom of iron that you add in the right places can make tens of thousands of atoms of carbon get fixed,” meaning absorbed by the water. “It’s rather efficient,” Siegel said. “You can deploy vessels that release iron oxide into the water—even just iron ore into the water—and you can make blooms that you can see from space. We know that.”

SOURCE: The Daily Beast


Video of the Week: The True Relationship of CO2 and Temperature That the Media Won’t Tell You

Misinformation runs rampant in the corporate media when discussing climate change. Media pundits wrongly label those who question their dogmatic narrative as “climate change deniers,” a ridiculous take with no basis in reality.

Anthony Watts explains exactly what climate realists think when it comes to climate change and the effect carbon dioxide has on temperature. Tune in every Friday at noon CT for another LIVE episode of Climate Change Roundtable.


BONUS Video of the Week: Democrats Hand Our Energy Independence to China

James Taylor, president of The Heartland Institute, joins the Chris Salcedo Show to discuss Congress’ reckless spending during the current economic recession. Taylor discusses how politicians are spending millions of American dollars on inefficient forms of energy from China.


Climate Comedy

cartoons by josh extinction rebellion

via Cartoons by Josh


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Climate believer
September 4, 2022 2:23 am

Climate models seem to work on the same principal as broken clocks.

HotScot
Reply to  Climate believer
September 4, 2022 2:52 am

A broken clock is far more reliable.

Duane
Reply to  Climate believer
September 4, 2022 4:40 am

Annual tropical weather projections aren’t “climate”.

Tom in Florida
Reply to  Duane
September 4, 2022 6:43 am

And the season peaks in mid to late Sep, we ain’t there yet. And still, it only takes one to ruin your life.

Jtom
Reply to  Tom in Florida
September 4, 2022 7:00 pm

The season’s climatological peak of activity occurs around September 10 each season. Danielle is a hurricane (again) but is expected to weaken steadily. Earl has been fighting to be a hurricane, and will likely do so. It even has a possibility of being a major ‘cane. Both, however, look destined to be fish storms.

There is a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa given only a 20% chance if becoming a tropical depression in the next five days. Other than that, bupkis for the next five days. That brings us to Sept. 9.

We may have that one ‘cane that hits us where it hurts, but at the moment it looks like we will pass peak activity without a tropical cyclone event affecting the US. There doesn’t seem to be much energy in the weather this year.

HotScot
Reply to  Duane
September 4, 2022 8:53 am

Alarmist’s like you keep telling us they are.

You also assure us the “Science is settled” (Obama) and you’re the experts, or so you keep telling us all.

Duane
Reply to  HotScot
September 4, 2022 10:16 am

I am not an alarmist – I am anti warmunist.  I am also anti-ignorant writing and commenting too.  Facts matter, not feelings

Reply to  Duane
September 4, 2022 5:09 pm

Sadly facts these days are formed by feelings.
And facts are always a matter of definition.
When is a storm a ‘tropical storm’ or a’hurricane’?
When someone gives it a name?

HotScot
September 4, 2022 2:52 am

The science is settled my a$$.

Gregory Woods
Reply to  HotScot
September 4, 2022 4:49 am

Woke Science for sleepy scientists…

Jeff Labute
Reply to  HotScot
September 4, 2022 11:15 am

Even the “better science” isn’t settled.

Stephen Philbrick
Reply to  HotScot
September 4, 2022 2:06 pm

I fully agree that the science is not as settled as some of the warmest would suggest, but a single observation about a single basin partway through the season is hardly evidence

fretslider
September 4, 2022 3:28 am

“no hurricanes, no tropical storms, not even a significant disturbance.”

It could still happen. A coded way of saying they’re desperately hoping for the worst…

Last edited 28 days ago by fretslider
Tom
September 4, 2022 4:05 am

Anthony Watts:

We are often told by climate experts and climate activists to “follow the science,” but when science fails to produce accurate forecasts, who should we follow then?

The answer is quite simple. We should follow the REAL scientists (such as the author of the statement), not any of the charlatans whose salaries come from government largess.

fretslider
Reply to  Tom
September 4, 2022 4:45 am

“when science fails to produce accurate forecasts, who should we follow then?”

Science and policies derived from science are always going wrong.

In the UK NHS we’ve had no end of scandals, lawsuits and compensation in the billions. Science is only as good as the people conducting it – or not.

What counts is what education you have – if you’re under 40 you’re at a disadvantage already – and how easily you are tricked. Tricked?

“How is it possible for you to be so easily tricked by something so simple as a story, because you are tricked? Well, it all comes down to one core thing and that is emotional investment. The more emotionally invested you are in anything in your life, the less critical and the less objectively observant you become.” — David JP Phillips, We Don’t Have Time board of directors, “The Magical Science of Storytelling”

https://www.theartofannihilation.com/the-manufacturing-of-greta-thunberg-for-consent-the-political-economy-of-the-non-profit-industrial-complex/

Incidentally, We Don’t Have Time is also the [PR] outfit that brought you St. Greta. Linked to WDHT…

Tagged in Rentzhog’s “lonely girl” tweet were five twitter accounts: Greta Thunberg, Zero Hour (youth movement), Jamie Margolin (the teenage founder of Zero Hour), Al Gore’s Climate Reality Project, and the People’s Climate Strike twitter account (in the identical font and aesthetics as 350.org). 

So how easily are you tricked?

HotScot
Reply to  fretslider
September 4, 2022 8:08 am

Mankind and especially governments have no place making predictions of the future.

Governments especially are here to make decisions ‘of the moment’. By all means lay out plans for the future but they should be alternative and flexible directions of travel rather than idiotic, ideological objectives like NetZero.

Science is observational, not predictive. The only predictive element is proposing the next hypothesis, then working to observationally formulate or reject it.

Politicians have been blindsided by disreputable and dishonest scientists persuading them that science is any use whatsoever as a predictive medium. Indeed, pure politics is probably better at predicting mankind’s short term future through human experience and intuition rather than science.

We have now been taught, once again, the lesson that within a very short space of time the direction of mankind’s travel can be abruptly changed by our own actions rather than that out-with our control.

Stephen Philbrick
Reply to  HotScot
September 4, 2022 2:09 pm

“Mankind and especially governments have no place making predictions of the future.”

You can’t seriously mean this unless you are making a nuanced point that ranges of possibilities with associated probabilities is preferable to single-point predictions

Old Man Winter
Reply to  fretslider
September 4, 2022 8:45 am

Thanks- a must read. Rather than a cutoff of
being 40, I’d add at least 170 yrs to that as
both European & US histories were manipulated
by biased politicians misrepresenting the facts
of the day to get people to act the way they
wanted them to. While Morningstar focuses on
capitalism’s role, I’d add Marxism & every
other so called liberal/progressive group to
the list as Hegel ridiculed us Yanks for
having a constitution as he claimed humanity
was evolving into something better & better.
His BeeEss laid the groundwork for Marx’s
“Das Kapital”.

Stateside, the trust/corporate structure
created monopolists in the power vacuum that
followed our Civil War & should have been
outlawed, not just limited. John Dewey started
changing American education 100 yrs ago as it
influenced US universities already by the 1920s
& 30s. The list goes on & on.

I’ve followed the Russia Collusion Hoax for 5+
yrs & it’s quite amazing how deception is
interwoven with the MSM & the actions of
politicians & bureaucrats. Even though I thought
I knew a lot of the tricks of how I was being
manipulated, it was much worse than even I
realized. If people realized even half of what
was being done to them, they’d be up in arms,
too.

Robert Whetten
Reply to  Tom
September 4, 2022 10:45 am

Re “… Eastern Pacific Basin (EPB) … [Hurricane] Bonnie …” by Dr. A Watts (Author):
Much appreciated, the passing mention of this region of Tropical Cyclones, which at present has already surpassed ten (10) named storms (i.e. J <=> Javier) with 11E (K) en route according to NHC today.
Indeed, The view from eastern media or (Alta) California is quite distinct to that from the Gulf of California (Baja+) // Sonora-Arizona or even the Mojave Desert, in respect to the difficult to forecast ‘Monsoon’ tropical season.  
…. Extremely active again this year, so far.
A complete updated perspective from this Author on the EPB would be timely as the Peak Season approaches, no?
Respectfully, — RLW 

2hotel9
September 4, 2022 4:09 am

OH, ye of little faith!!!! The chattering morons are all atwitter on TV, there is a hurricane, and it is going to destroy the whole world!!!!! Bwhaaahahhahahah!!!!!!!!

Duane
September 4, 2022 4:39 am

“Waning months of hurricane season” is not how any informed person would describe the months of September – always the peak month of every hurricane season” – and October.  These two months account for far more storms and hurricanes than the other four months combined.

Stop trying to hypocritically conflate tropical storm projections with climate modeling … an error that anti-warmunists routinely accuse warmunists of committing.  Climate and weather are apples and oranges.

What has confounded the storm projections this year has been an extremely high amount of Saharan dust transport across the Atlantic, which both lowers humidity and increases temperatures – the net effect being to suppress tropical storm formation.  This is great for those of us living in the Atlantic basin region.  Whether this continues throughout the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season this month and next is unknowable.  It seems unlikely to be a climatic trend – it is just variable weather.

In any event the NHC’s storm models are going to need to be calibrated to account for whatever it is that led to the African dust transport, even if it is a sort of “black swan” kind of event.  The science of climate and even short term weather of course is never settled.

Hoyt Clagwell
Reply to  Duane
September 4, 2022 7:18 am

Weather and climate are not “apples and oranges.” They would better be described as “apples and orchards.” The difference is just a matter of scale.

Duane
Reply to  Hoyt Clagwell
September 4, 2022 10:18 am

Not at all. Weather is the result of extremely chaotic and highly variable events in the atmosphere and oceans. Climate is the result of highly predictable and regular occurrences with known sources or causes. A drought is weather. Thousands or millions of years of predictable weather – like Saharan deserts, the arctic, the Rocky Mountains, etc. – that’s climate.

Last edited 28 days ago by Duane
Jon R
Reply to  Duane
September 4, 2022 12:42 pm

Highly predictable? Do you know how to read?

Reply to  Duane
September 4, 2022 5:13 pm

“Climate is the result of highly predictable and regular occurrences with known sources or causes.”

ROFLMAO!

Climate is the time integral of weather, that’s all.
Idiot.

Jtom
Reply to  Leo Smith
September 4, 2022 7:09 pm

Precisely, which means, until there is a change in weather, there is no climate change.

HotScot
Reply to  Duane
September 4, 2022 8:48 am

Stop trying to hypocritically conflate tropical storm projections with climate modeling

It's not sceptics who do that, it's alarmists like you that blame climate change 
every time a hurricaine hits land and destroys stuff.

All this article does is ridicule your stupidity in doing so.


Last edited 28 days ago by HotScot
Duane
Reply to  HotScot
September 4, 2022 10:19 am

What a idiot assuming that I am an alarmist.  I am an anti-warmunist.  I am also anti- stupidity and anti-dumb commentary, because facts and logic count and mindless propaganda does not count for anything

Reply to  Duane
September 4, 2022 5:14 pm

You have drunk the warmist’s language and definitions. No use trying to be a concern troll.

Jtom
Reply to  Duane
September 4, 2022 7:07 pm

You lose credibility when your facts are wrong. There have been more Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes in August than October. September is the peak month. August follows next. The September peak is around the 10th.

Yooper
September 4, 2022 4:52 am

So now Sep 4 we have one hurricane and one tropical storm in the Atlantic, oh well. And UP here in God’s country it was a bright clear 46 degree morning.

Old Man Winter
Reply to  Yooper
September 4, 2022 7:35 am

It was the same 46° straight west of you in the REAL God’s Country. 😮
Maybe not so as we’re aka “The Land of 10,000 Taxes”. With both of us
having the “Blue Flu” caused by our Blue governors, it feels like we live in
“Godforsaken Country”, at least for now!

Rich Davis
September 4, 2022 5:07 am

Dr. Spinrad der Spinnmeister

MarkW
September 4, 2022 6:33 am

Where are all the hurricanes?

Isn’t it obvious, they are hiding in the deep oceans.

HotScot
Reply to  MarkW
September 4, 2022 8:51 am

Don’t give them daft ideas. They’ll try to turn them into reality.

observa
Reply to  MarkW
September 5, 2022 7:20 am

They’ll be back changing the climate just you wait and see skeptic-
Inside the former debauched pirate city that’s slowly disappearing into the sea (msn.com)

Pat from kerbob
Reply to  MarkW
September 5, 2022 7:31 pm

Actually that sounds like an awesome movie.
Underwater rotation started by sharknado frenzy which then accelerates out of control due to Trenberth’s hidden heat rising out of the oceans, destroying all the seaside mansions of the mega rich alarmists, with the sharks eating the bodies.
Instant hit.

Last edited 27 days ago by Pat from kerbob
Laws of Nature
September 4, 2022 7:18 am

“no hurricanes, no tropical storms, not even a significant disturbance.”
Clearly that must be man made and the end is near!

roaddog
September 4, 2022 7:52 am

RE: Jane Lubchenco.
Sometimes a crime family, even one as large as that lead by Joe Biden, has to bring in contractors.

Olen
September 4, 2022 7:57 am

Excellent description of the World Economic Forum like the Kings of old who decided they could have total power over the people, they have decided the same. What is amazing is how many are willing to cooperate to be a part of it.

Gordon A. Dressler
September 4, 2022 10:37 am

Regarding NOAA’s so-far-failed predictions for this current hurricane season, a good book summarized it up very appropriately:
“Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.”
— Bible, Romans 1:22, King James Version (KJV)

Robert Whetten
September 4, 2022 11:06 am

Re:  “… though Bonnie went on to become a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific Basin …”  — by Dr A. Watts (Author)
Much appreciated, this passing mention of the Eastern Pacific (EPB) region of Tropical Cyclone Activity …
… which at present has already surpassed ten (10) named storms (i.e. J <=> ‘Javier’), and 11E (K) en route, according to the NHC-USA early today.
Indeed, the view from the Eastern / Gulf of Mexico could hardly be more different to that from the region of the Gulf of California (Baja+) // Sonora-Arizona // Mojave Desert, not to mention Pacific Mexico & Meso-America.
The difficulty to forecast the tropical rainy season (‘Monsoon’) of the southwest USA deserts — extremely active again this year (so far) — is legendary.  How about an updated perspective (from the same Author) on the EPB, as the peak-of-season rapidly approaches?
Respectfully, — RLW ( writing from near 35 N 111W)

Chris Nisbet
September 4, 2022 12:16 pm

I wonder what changes they made to their models to ‘improve’ them.
I wonder what the reasoning was that led to those changes.
Does anybody keep track of how often they get their predictions right, and if their predictions are actually any better than a coin toss? I would think that some basic statistical analysis would tell us if their models are any good, and/or improving over time.

Stephen Philbrick
September 4, 2022 2:05 pm

“More tropical storms and even some hurricanes will almost undoubtedly form in the waning months of hurricane season 2022,…”

I’m not opposed to pointing out that the season is shaping up slower than expected so far, but the reference to “waning months” is misplaced. My quick and dirty calculation is we are about 40% of the way through the season (expected ACE so far 45.1 full season expected 122.5) Which means we aren’t even halfway through. We are hardly in the waning months of the season.

Last edited 28 days ago by Stephen Philbrick
Allen Stoner
September 4, 2022 4:58 pm

0 correct predictions and 100s of failed predictions later, we predict with 70% confidence…

September 4, 2022 5:05 pm

Danielle and Earl both current (5th september)

Gordon A. Dressler
September 5, 2022 8:34 am

In the lead article above we find these two sequential statements:
“NOAA says there is a 70 percent chance of 14-21 storms forming, with as many as ten potentially becoming hurricanes. Three to six of these storms could become major hurricanes. …
“Spinrad also detailed the improvements that NOAA forecasts have made over the past few years. He attributed their advancements to NOAA’s weather forecast system, Hurricane Hunter flight data, and the administration’s ability to accurately pinpoint at-risk areas.”

So far, just passing the half-way point of the 2022 hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean, we have had four—yes, count ’em, four—named tropical storms, none making landfall. And it was only this past Friday that tropical storm Danielle reached “hurricane” intensity level.

Now, although there is calendar time still remaining, a betting man would be thinking that NOAA’s assertions of improvements/advancements in their storm forecasting abilities are nothing more than simple propaganda.

Last edited 27 days ago by Gordon A. Dressler
Gordon A. Dressler
Reply to  Gordon A. Dressler
September 5, 2022 8:53 am

BTW, just a passing thought for consideration:

I’m wondering if the going-on-months-long persistent high pressure weather system that is hanging over the western portion of the United States is effectively “starving” the Atlantic Ocean of the additional atmospheric thermal energy that would otherwise normally be carried there by the prevailing west-to-east winds passing over this land mass, as driven by jet streams.
Reduction in available thermal energy is a ready explanation for reduction in tropical storms . . . and it doesn’t take a supercomputer and GCM to deduce that.

Last edited 27 days ago by Gordon A. Dressler
Gordon A. Dressler
Reply to  Gordon A. Dressler
September 5, 2022 5:14 pm

UPDATE:
Tropical storm Earl, the fifth named storm of this season, formed late on this past Friday and is now expected (shall I say forecast?) to become a hurricane by this coming Wednesday.

Too early to say if it will make landfall anywhere.

Edward Katz
September 5, 2022 6:07 pm

Remember that all the earlier predictions about an active hurricane season were just that—predictions. Now that they’re not materializing, the climate alarmists conveniently downplay them or retract them completely. That’s why their credibility is always on shaky ground.

Pat from kerbob
September 5, 2022 7:28 pm

Listening to the “news” this weekend I was informed that the “biggest storm of the year anywhere on earth” was hitting Asia.
Omg!!!!
But of course, that means nothing.
Biggest this year? That could be 1/10th of the record storm for all we’d know from that blurb.

Just another way to try and turn a nothing burger into ribeye.

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