No Trends in Hot Days In May, Despite Met Office Misinformation

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

 I posted on this a couple of weeks ago here.

Now we have the full numbers for this May, we can take a closer look at CET trends.

ECA&D has data up to 2020, but there have been no days of 25C or more, either this May or May last year. The top temperatures were 22.8C and 21.8C respectively.

There is clearly no upward trend in “Summer Days”, the 90th percentile or maximum daily temperatures:

https://www.ecad.eu/utils/showindices.php?lghf4ugv5r91f54ehfmfqnejkg#

Any attempt by the Met Office to persuade the public otherwise is reprehensible.

FOOTNOTE

I noticed on checking that the current CET data did not tally with the above – 1947, for instance, only showed three days of 25C+, as opposed to four on ECA&Ds.

On reconciling the two, I see that all of the CET daily numbers are now moved back a day. So, the four days of ECA&Ds which recorded 25C were the 28th through 31st May. The official CET data now lists the same temperatures on 29th May through 1St June.

No doubt there is a sensible reason for this!

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griff
June 3, 2022 2:44 am

More whataboutery.

The UK climate clearly is changing… for example it is 6% wetter than 30 years ago, with more exceptional rain events.

Disputin
Reply to  griff
June 3, 2022 2:59 am

Griff, we know the climate(s) changing – it always does. Why do more whataboutery?

Last edited 1 month ago by Disputin
another ian
Reply to  Disputin
June 3, 2022 3:55 am

Whataboutery it goes down as well as up?

fretslider
Reply to  griff
June 3, 2022 4:14 am

“6% wetter”

And yet…

“There is a serious risk that parts of England will run out of water within 20 years, MPs have warned.”

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jul/10/parts-of-england-could-run-out-of-water-within-20-years-warn-mps

The UK includes England doh

Last edited 1 month ago by fretslider
Ben Vorlich
Reply to  fretslider
June 3, 2022 4:58 am

I saw this yesterday,

Scotland introduces emergency drought measures ahead of summer
AN emergency scheme to combat drought has been introduced in Scotland while much of the country has been given an early warning of water scarcity.
Emergency bottled water will be provided to households in the event of water shortages, the Scottish Government has confirmed.

Paywalled Glasgow Herald

STV Online

Scotland worried about water shortages this early in the year. Must be that 6% extra rain causing the problem.

I recall a very dry period in the Tayside, and probably most of Scotland in 1972-73. With no rain from July (precious little before) to October one of those years

fretslider
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
June 3, 2022 5:14 am

I was curious as to where griff got his 6% wetter from…

“As well as increased temperatures, the UK has been on average 6% wetter over the last 30 years “

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2021/climate-change-continues-to-be-evident-across-uk

The MO did say on average, griff did not.

“When you analyse the data, however, you find that this increasing trend in rainfall is confined mainly to Scotland:”

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2021/07/29/uk-already-undergoing-disruptive-climate-change-bbc/

Is griff a Scot? I think we should be told.

Last edited 1 month ago by fretslider
Richard Page
Reply to  fretslider
June 3, 2022 7:02 am

The spurious Met Office claim of a 6% increase in precipitation has been similarly debunked. Aside from the Met Office, other sites show no trend in precipitation – weather fluctuates that’s it.

Rod Evans
Reply to  fretslider
June 3, 2022 10:36 am

Have a heart fregtslider, the Scots already have a nightmare political set up with Nicola Sturgeon in charge this past eight years. You would not wish another nightmare on them in the form of a climate alarmist griffter would you?

Reply to  Rod Evans
June 3, 2022 10:27 pm

You would not wish another nightmare on them in the form of a climate alarmist griffter would you?”

Giffie may be perfect to be their nighttime offshore wind turbine inspector; who must inspect turbine generators, bearings and blades.

Reply to  fretslider
June 3, 2022 10:24 pm

Is griff a Scot? I think we should be told”

I’ve always visualize giffie as an example of Monty Python’s “Blancmange”:

Charles (Graham Chapman) determines that the blancmanges mean to win Wimbledon, having turned the population into Scotsmen, since they are known as the world’s worst tennis players.”

michael hart
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
June 3, 2022 9:59 am

Scotland’s population running out of water is one of the most ridiculous concepts imaginable. Like Antarctica running out of ice. It can only be due to failure of human supply systems, not availability of sources.

Redge
Reply to  griff
June 3, 2022 4:59 am

You are woefully misinformed as usual Griff mate

Even cherry-picking the last 30 years is incorrect

The following is from – you know what, find it yourself, maybe you’ll learn something

gdj3157-fig-0006-m.jpg
Meab
Reply to  Redge
June 3, 2022 10:02 am

griffter isn’t misinformed, he’s lying again. He’s been schooled on this before.

Thanks for posting this, it’s useful to anyone new to the blog who doesn’t know that griffter is a liar.

Andrew Wilkins
Reply to  griff
June 3, 2022 5:07 am

Demonstrating that the UK’s Met Office is chatting total sh1t isn’t “whataboutery”. It shows us that the public is being lied to. Are you happy with lies being presented as fact? It seems you are.

Last edited 1 month ago by Andrew Wilkins
Andrew Wilkins
Reply to  griff
June 3, 2022 5:08 am

6% wetter? Oh my gawd!!! Quick, Marjorie, get me my galoshes!

slow to follow
Reply to  griff
June 3, 2022 5:19 am

griff: “…it is 6% wetter than 30 years ago”

griff: Please can you explain what this claim refers to, along with the numbers you are basing it on? Without these explanatory details it is simply meaningless.

For example, if it’s average puddle volumes being 6% larger, have you checked that it is not a change in the maintenance schedule for surface drainage? Has the defintion and recording method of “exceptional rain events” remained constant for 30 years? Has this metric existed for 30 years? etc etc

BobM
Reply to  griff
June 3, 2022 5:55 am

Yeah, and in Arizona, they’ve had less rain and snow runoff in the last 30 years. The climate clearly is changing, as it always does. Has the climate changed in the UK or Arizona, or anywhere, that has never happened before? Nope.

YallaYPoora Kid
Reply to  griff
June 3, 2022 5:59 am

What about your cantthinkstraightery or your makeituppery? Better if you suppliedsomedatery.

Richard Page
Reply to  YallaYPoora Kid
June 3, 2022 10:01 am

It’s more like “lyinghisassoffery” than anything else!

ResourceGuy
Reply to  griff
June 3, 2022 6:30 am

Will the next 30 years look like the last 30 years?……put down the straight edge

http://www.climate4you.com/images/NOAA%20SST-NorthAtlantic%20GlobalMonthlyTempSince1979%20With37monthRunningAverage.gif

michael hart
Reply to  griff
June 3, 2022 9:53 am

Here in central Central England, May felt distinctly cooler than past years.

pigs_in_space
Reply to  griff
June 3, 2022 11:24 am

You are 100 wetter than anyone else on here – a bed wetter, more’s the point you weren’t even thought of in the 1976 summer which was a roaster with water restrictions and no rain for months (our well ran dry for the 1st time ever)!

And you trying to tell us what??
Twat!

Reply to  griff
June 3, 2022 10:19 pm

for example it is”

You’ve already been caught pushing this lie before and fully refuted.

Habitual lying and other narcissist psychopathic tendencies (doom! Doom! DOOM! CLIMATE DOOM, giffie tells you!) should be treated by genuine professionals.

menace
Reply to  griff
June 4, 2022 7:43 am

6% wetter

for London that’s like 62 cm of annual rain versus 60 inches

statistically significant?

is this 2 cm (3/4 inch) more rainfall a good thing or a bad thing?

have a little perspective Griff

Reply to  menace
June 4, 2022 4:09 pm

is this 2 cm (3/4 inch) more rainfall a good thing or a bad thing?

Griff has steadfastly refused to tell me how much rain is the right amount, so don’t expect an answer.

Mark BLR
Reply to  griff
June 4, 2022 8:57 am

The UK climate clearly is changing… for example it is 6% wetter than 30 years ago, with more exceptional rain events.

One of the references in AR6 is “Benestad et al (2019), A simple equation to study changes in rainfall statistics”.

Figure 3 from that paper is copied below.

I insist that we talk about the changes in the “extreme (> 50mm/day)” precipitation trends observed in Spain instead …

Screenshot_Benestad-et-al-2019_Figure-3.png
Last edited 1 month ago by Mark BLR
Peta of Newark
June 3, 2022 3:07 am

Where abouts in the UK?
Many many more people, houses and cities are there compered ‘then’ to now.
How much bigger are those cities

Especially when it come to the Met Office favourite at Heathrow?

Anyway, run yer eyeballs, just quickly, over this one.
https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN03339/SN03339.pdf

See how ‘arable area’ has increased
i.e. Low albedo ground and especially when the sun is at its strongest through May and early June – until the crops get established and shade the (bare) soil

See also how the area of orchards has decreased.
Yes I know, ‘green’ is a ‘dark colour’ and thus has low albedo.
Wrong, green things present the same albedo as snow of 3+ years old
What was put in place of the orchard? Houses/roads/arable/airports/solar farms
Lower albedo allied to the loss of the cooling effect of the trees via shade and evaporative losses

That the number of sheep has increased.
Very similar to goats, sheep eat everything, they create deserts = hot dry places made worse by the dark coloured soils typical of the UK

Its a bit of a struggle to find forestry data – the struggle tells all you need to know.
i.e. Everybody is lying about it and has an agenda
Does it matter. UK forest has seemingly increased by 250,000 Ha in the last 20 years but, there’d have been perennially green swamp, marsh, muir, mire or bog there before.

So yes. Man does change the climate but NOT via the contrived garbage that is the Green House Gas Effect.
Yes the CO2 does increase but it is coming from all that bare soil, previous rich in bacterial life, being exposed to strong sunlight.
The sun instantly kills those bacteria and their frazzled corpses have nothing else to do but become: Ceee Ohhh Tooo

Think about that for a while, that ALL LIFE ON EARTH depends upon bacteria, even your own and the endgame, when those bacteria re gone is simply too awful to contemplate.
Hence why no-one wants to contemplate it.
We are all = Deniers

PS Even before Glyphosate arrived on the scene – something originally intended as an antibiotic. It still is. that’s pretty well how it works.

  • Anti = Contra
  • Biotic = Life

nice

Richard Page
Reply to  Peta of Newark
June 3, 2022 7:06 am

Yes – I noticed the Met Offices favourite weather station on the runway at Heathrow. Gives the lie to the usual suspects plaintive wailing about not using hugely biased airport weather stations. How long before we can publicly expose these people as inveterate liars and fraudsters?

Michael in Dublin
June 3, 2022 4:43 am

Here in Ireland I am desperately longing for days above 20°C. It is quite ironic that my family in NZ are having warmer winter days in Auckland than we have having summer days in Dublin.

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  Michael in Dublin
June 3, 2022 5:00 am

If it’s any consolation it’s not been warm in Derby either, although we did touch 20’C yesterday

fretslider
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
June 3, 2022 5:50 am

South England isn’t that warm, either.

“2022 expected to continue run of world’s warmest years”

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2021/2022-global-temperature-forecast

Fail.

Last edited 1 month ago by fretslider
Mr.
Reply to  fretslider
June 3, 2022 7:08 am

Does putting forth the conjecture about hottest years in hundredths of one degree C impart the conjecture more or less credibility with rational folk do you think?

I mean, seriously – who can discern if today’s weather is 0.06 C warmer or cooler than it was on the same date 30 years ago?
(and at what time of day did this supposedly life-altering situation occur?)

Relevance fail.

Mr.
Reply to  Mr.
June 3, 2022 1:40 pm

Note – this comment was an observation about the Met Office article link you posted, Fretslider, not your comment.

TheFinalNail
Reply to  Michael in Dublin
June 3, 2022 10:22 am

It is quite ironic that my family in NZ are having warmer winter days in Auckland than we have having summer days in Dublin.

Considering NH ‘summer’ started 3 days ago (meteorological), that’s hardly saying much.

You should consider moving north, Michael, into the ‘blue skies of Ulster’; because we’ve been having it pretty good this year in Northern Ireland. Both March and April temperatures were above average and, although they haven’t been published yet, I would expect May to also be above average this year, based on my own observations.

AndyHce
Reply to  TheFinalNail
June 3, 2022 9:00 pm

The summer solstice (first day of summer) is June 21. What is this “meteorological” business?

Mike Lowe
Reply to  Michael in Dublin
June 3, 2022 1:34 pm

We Aucklanders thank you Dubliners very much for the heat transfer!

Bellman
June 3, 2022 5:27 am

Another Paul Homewood post accusing the Met Office of lying, by looking at what they didn’t say.

The linked post says that looking at individual station data the earliest date recording a max of 25°C is on average earlier and the number of days recording max of greater than 20°C in May has increased.

Homewood, only looks at the CET rather than individual station data, and says there’s been no increase in the number of May days above 25°C.

There are very few days over 25 in the CET for May because it’s an average of several different stations.

fretslider
Reply to  Bellman
June 3, 2022 5:35 am

Hot May days are a feature at Heathrow – beside the runway

Richard Page
Reply to  Bellman
June 3, 2022 10:34 am

And the Met Office article shown in the original post discusses averaging out all of the individual station records before seeing which have exceeded 20C. I fail to see why you are objecting to not using individual temperature stations when both the Met Office and the CET are both using averages.

Bellman
Reply to  Richard Page
June 3, 2022 12:32 pm

But that’s for the number if days above 20°C, not 25°C as Homewood is using. The 25°C figure is for the earliest date recorded at any station.

Bellman
June 3, 2022 5:37 am

“, I see that all of the CET daily numbers are now moved back a day. ”

I’m not sure what the ECAD data is for CET, but comparing the new and old version of CET for May 1947 doesn’t show such a change.

Version 2 for 27-31 May 1947 is 19.9, 24.4, 28.6, 25.8, 28.6

Legacy version for same period. 19.9, 24.4, 28.6, 25.8, 28.5.

Only difference is 31st is now 0.1°C warmer.

Bellman
Reply to  Bellman
June 3, 2022 3:34 pm

Looks to me that the ECAD data is all off by one. They start on December 31st 1880, with 6.4°C, but the quality field marked as 9, meaning missing. The last value is for December 30th 2019, with the 31st showing a missing value -9999, but the quality field set to 0 meaning valid.

 STAID, SOUID,    DATE,   TX, Q_TX

  257,100806,18801229,-9999,   9
  257,100806,18801230,-9999,   9
  257,100806,18801231,  64,   9
  257,100806,18810101,  62,   0
  257,100806,18810102,  60,   0
  257,100806,20191228,  91,   0
  257,100806,20191229,  92,   0
  257,100806,20191230,  78,   0
  257,100806,20191231,-9999,   0
  257,100806,20200101,-9999,   9
  257,100806,20200102,-9999,   9
TheFinalNail
June 3, 2022 5:59 am

As usual, Paul Homewood uses CET data when the Met Office is talking about UK-wide. CET is comprised of three stations in Central England. UKMO uses hundreds of individual stations from across Northern Ireland, Wales, Scotland and England, for its monthly UK average.

He also fails to mention that 2022 is tied 5th warmest spring (Mar_Apr_May) in the CET record, which starts in 1659. Had it been 5th coldest, I’m pretty sure he would have mentioned it.

Last edited 1 month ago by TheFinalNail
Richard Page
Reply to  TheFinalNail
June 3, 2022 10:24 am

Interesting reply seeing as the initial article from the Met Office mentions averaging all of the stations across the UK and seeing which days’ average exceeds 20C.

TheFinalNail
Reply to  Richard Page
June 3, 2022 2:56 pm

Richard Page

Interesting reply seeing as the initial article from the Met Office mentions averaging all of the stations across the UK and seeing which days’ average exceeds 20C.

The Met Office article states that it is “looking at individual station data” and “maximum temperatures at specific locations” with regard to its 25C comments.

There are literally hundreds of validated UKMO weather stations across the UK. Homewood attempts to refute this UKMO claim by citing CET data, which is an average of just three stations encompassing a triangular region in Central England. That’s not comparing like with like.

TheFinalNail
Reply to  TheFinalNail
June 3, 2022 10:31 am

In fact, here’s one of Paul’s from June 2013, lamenting the “Coldest Spring In England Since 1891” and the “31st coldest on records starting in 1659”! Yikes.

For Paul Homewood, the 31st coldest spring in CET “starting in 1659” merits it’s own blog post, re-posted on WUWT, no less; but the tied 5th warmest spring since 1659 doesn’t even get an anecdotal mention?

A cynic might think some folks around here are more interested in advocacy than they are in science.

Last edited 1 month ago by TheFinalNail
Richard Page
Reply to  TheFinalNail
June 3, 2022 4:40 pm

Actually by doing a little digging, I suspect both statements may be valid. It is possible to have the 31st coldest spring by daily mean as well as 5th warmest May by daily mean . Yes you are both equally cynical by twisting facts to your own advantage by failing to explain how you derived those statistics when a monthly mean derivative would have been clearer. And yes this does highlight the fact that such statements as ‘5th warmest’ or ’31st coldest’ are probably utter bollux if you fail to use a standard metric in both cases but that is, by now, pretty much par for the course as far as advocacy on both sides go.

ResourceGuy
June 3, 2022 6:27 am

25 C must be a joke, right? You need a hard recession or a land war in Europe to wake up.

Maxbert
June 3, 2022 12:27 pm

Here in the US Pacific Northwest, we’re having the coldest Spring in a half century.

Mr.
Reply to  Maxbert
June 3, 2022 1:35 pm

And according to Prof Cliff Mass, June is just going to continue the cold, wet climate weather the PNW is infamous for.

(I know, I know – “for which the PNW is infamous”)

H.R.
Reply to  Mr.
June 3, 2022 5:53 pm

For you, Mr. This might make you feel better.

Myth: Never End a Sentence with a Preposition (proofreadnow.com)

Mr.
Reply to  H.R.
June 3, 2022 7:05 pm

A dangerous path there H.R.

I’d hate to find myself writing phrases such as –
“dude, where that at?”

Richard Page
Reply to  Mr.
June 4, 2022 4:50 am

Yeah – there’s a very old joke about that. An out of town tourist stopped a proper uptight city gent for directions, asking him “where’s the (whatever) hotel at?” To which the reply came “Don’t you know you should never end a sentence with a preposition?” After a moments thought the tourist asked him again; “where’s the (whatever) hotel at, butthole?”

ex-KaliforniaKook
Reply to  Richard Page
June 5, 2022 12:07 pm

Old joke, but some reason it always makes me giggle.

After almost 70 years, I need to grow up.

Meab
Reply to  Maxbert
June 3, 2022 1:43 pm

Spokane had the coldest April since records began over 130 years ago. What does this prove? It proves that weather is highly variable, what little warming there has been in the last 100 years doesn’t stop the possibility of setting a local all-time low temperature record.

I live in the Pacific NW. The cold weather this winter killed many plants that were 15 years old.

taxed
June 3, 2022 2:03 pm

There has been a spring warming trend here in the UK, but its one that has been taking place for at least the last 70 years.
In the book ‘Seasonable Weather’ by Lionel P. Smith in chapter 15 ‘Has our Climate changed’
He compared the years 1950-66 with the previous 100 years to see if there had been any changes to the climate (the book was printed in 1968). Even back then he had noticed there had been a increase in dryer warmer days between 1950-66 during spring when compared to the previous 100 years.
So any spring warming trend in the UK has been going on since at least the 1950’s and so is most likely linked to the UK’s climate moving out of the LIA.

Ulric Lyons
June 3, 2022 3:17 pm
TheFinalNail
Reply to  Ulric Lyons
June 3, 2022 4:34 pm

Agreed, but does that falsify anything in the Met Office statements?

It’s not even the data set they are referring to.

Last edited 1 month ago by TheFinalNail
Geoff Sherrington
June 4, 2022 3:51 am

Any attempt by the Met Office to persuade the public otherwise is reprehensible.”

More than reprehensible, it is downright illegal.
Surely better Met office conduct could be encouraged by taking them before a Court of Law with clear data and clear Met Office words that are false. British justice has fine beginnings and a need of regular exercise of principles of Law. Geoff S

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