Coldest Spring In England Since 1891

By Paul Homewood

Originally, it was thought to be the coldest spring since 1962.

Winter? Teesdale in County Durham blanketed in snow on May 23 in what is likely to be Britain's coldest spring since 1962

Winter? Teesdale in County Durham blanketed in snow on May 23 in what is likely to be Britain’s coldest spring since 1962

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2333312/UK-weather-Spring-coldest-50-years-average-temperature-just-6C.html

According to the Central England Temperature Series, England has just experienced its coldest Spring since 1891. The average mean temperature of 6.87C ranks the 31st coldest on records starting in 1659, and is 2 degrees lower than the 1981-2010 average of 8.9C.

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The 5-Year average has dropped to 8.9C, a level commonly seen in the 1940’s and 50’s. Although the cold Spring has been due in large part to the exceptionally cold weather in March, which was the coldest since 1892, both April and May have also been much colder than normal.

CET Warmer/(Colder) v 1981-2010
March 2013 2.7 (3.9)
April 2013 7.5 (1.0)
May 2013 10.4 (1.3)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.html

The 12-Month running average continues to drop, and at 8.9C is well below the levels seen for the last decade, and 1.0C lower than the 1981-2010 annual average.

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Robert Wykoff

And the cold weather is fully consistent with and caused by…wait for it….wait for it….

David, UK

I won’t believe it until there is a 97% (or maybe 98%) Consensus to back it up.

Stephen Richards

Paul, you are toooooo quick. The Met Off hasn’t had time to adjust the figures up.

Stephen Richards

the 31st coldest on records starting in 1659
which goes to demonstrate just how much colder it could get after I’ve adjusted my model.

Pingo

We need to start planting Icelandic species in our garden. Our children won’t know what a heatwave is. I sense desperation amongst the natives – here in Castlefield, Manchester, the beer patios have been rammed all weekend – at 17C 63F

Billy Liar

March was the coldest since 1883 (1.9C) – 1892 was 2.7C, same as 2013. I think.

Auto

Hmmmm
Cooler.
I’ve noticed. I’ve been there.
What easy measures are there to insulate your (my) house?
Cooler? And Cooling??
Whoosh . . .

Billy Liar

Pingo, maybe you should send your warm weather plants to Rovaniemi in Finland on the Arctic Circle – it’s going to be 79F there tomorrow:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/fi/rovaniemi/134773/daily-weather-forecast/134773?partner=bing

See - owe to Rich

So the nights must have been exceptionally cold, as well as the days being pretty cold. Because using CET max 2013 March-May was only the 7th coldest in the record starting in 1878 (while March was _the_ coldest):
MAM year
10.10 1879
10.27 1887
10.30 1891
10.33 1888
10.70 1951
10.73 1962
10.80 2013
I thought that a feature of AGW was that one wasn’t supposed to get cold nights?
Richard.

Silver Ralph

Never mind the spring, what about the summer??
I have worn a scarf to work every day this year, except for today – and then I regretted not doing so. Its 8 degrees outside now, on the east coast of Anglia.
.

Latitude

And guess what the Met Office forecast?
====
rotfl…..they gave it a 50/50
They can’t lose with that one!

Billy Liar

Paul Homewood says:
June 2, 2013 at 1:20 pm
They continue to just flounder around like a fish out of water. They constantly embarrass themselves over ‘projections’ or ‘predictions’, regional or otherwise.
I translate their ‘predicion’ – there’s a 40% chance it will be above or below normal and a 60% chance it will be normal. To err is human, you need a supercomputer to really foul up.

DirkH

The last surviving humans will be a few breeding pairs in Singapore.

DaveG

No worry’s a little prolong cold winter never hurt anyone. Unless you living in fuel poverty!!!

Skeptik

Last days of Spring, Brighton Beach, 16C, people swimming.

TinyCO2

Where would it have ranked without ‘global warming’? And what justification could the Met Office have for such extraordinary cold?

cheshirered

@ Latitude…
They didn’t give it a 50:50 shot, they gave cooler and warmer each the same 15-20% chance, with the balance falling in between, ie ‘average’. That means they predicted a cooler than average spring was 15-20% likely, leaving an average or warmer spring at a combined 80-85% likelihood.
The MO therefore rated a cooler than average spring as essentially only a 1:5 against shot. They were plainly wrong. Can you imagine if they called the great global warming scandal along similar lines of accuracy? Oh, wait….

Paul Homewood says:
June 2, 2013 at 1:20 pm
And guess what the Met Office forecast?
—————————————————–
Perhaps they should stick to hindcasting. If they get really good at that, then they may be able to build a model that can accurately predict the last 24 hours of weather. Wouldn’t that be useful!!!

The 1962 idea come’s from the UK temperature series – Which only goes back to 1910.
The Central England Temperature series goes back to 1659 and is the oldest, detailed weather record anywhere in the world.
There’s some very interesting data that I’ve seen recently that suggests quite a big connection between severely cold springs and the following summer/winter in the UK.
I’ll have a video on it next Sunday. Could be quite interesting.

Jeff

Waiting for the Met office and the other climatologists to chime in….the folks who put the CON in consensus…..
I wish they would learn, but as long as they have (our) money to burn….
Kind of interesting that these previous records are on approximately 60-year cycles. I imagine the
OLD Farmers Almanac has it pegged…
Just hope and pray all this global warming stops for a while here in Germany….it’s getting pretty difficult in some places…again “hundred-year floods” are being mentioned (maybe 120?)….

Stephen Wilde

Since 2008 I’ve been telling everyone that I noted the Jetstream pattern change around 2000 whereby the previous period of warming accompanied by more poleward / zonal jets was replaced by more equatorward / meridional jets and that therefore the late 20th century temperature trend had gone into reverse.
Was I wrong?
The only change that correlates with that timing is the decline of solar activity from active cycle 23 to inactive cycle 24.
CO2 is completely out of the ball park since it continued to rise throughout.

CET daily maximum temperatures for winter and spring of 2013 are well down on the 20 year (1990-2010) average
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CET-Dmax.htm

The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley

And people, let us not forget the Met Office’s Vicky Pope back in 2004. Oh this is classic…

Tonyb

I don’t need to tell any Brits reading this that fuel prices have soared as temperatures have plunged. Here it is in graphical form
http://climatereason.com/Graphs/Graph11.png
Tonyb

Ask EAU researchers to build a new data set – that might work huh?

Stephen Wilde

A comment from Vicky Pope would be interesting in light of her panic driven nonsense linked to above by The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley.
She even asserts that loss of Arctic sea ice leads to more sunlight entering the water for a warming effect.
More recently it has at last been acknowledged that loss of Arctic ice leads to more loss of energy from the Arctic Ocean to the air.
Will she admit total incompetence?

Nigel S

The comments on the Daily Mail article include this classic. It is so stupid that it’s hard to believe it isn’t a hoax.
‘As others have pointed out, it is the global temperature that is increasing, not necessarilly an increase in all areas but overall an increase. Another product of climate change is unpredictable weather which has been on a massive increase lately with more frequent tornados, hurricanes, tsunamis, etc. I am still amazed that so many people are still claiming climate change is a hoax when most scientists say it is a reality. A lot of scientists who were originally sceptical are now starting to believe in it. A recent report found that 97% of scientific research done on man made climate change over the years pointed to it being real. Despite all the scientific evidence and science community consensus a lot of people are still sceptical. If people have concerns then fair enough but I hope they have researched this properly and aren’t just getting their information from the papers, especially the tabloids.’
– Paul_J , Liverpool, United Kingdom, 01/6/2013 23:46

kadaka (KD Knoebel)

Sure, you complain it’s cold now. But come August when that British-style 17.5°C heat wave hits and the jumpers come off, you’ll be missing the cold.
BTW, when it was pointed out previously that Britain must have been warmer in the past since the visiting Romans raised grapes for wine, it was said they’re raising grapes now so that can’t be right, except of course that would be with more modern varieties created over centuries of cross-breeding and careful cultivation that likely do better in colder climates.
How are the grapes doing this year?

Kurt in Switzerland

Similar situation here in Switzerland –
Meteosuisse reports that this Spring had the lowest solar insolation in cities across the country to the North of the Alps (Basel, Zurich and St. Gallen) ever since the homogeneous data series began in 1959.
http://www.meteoschweiz.admin.ch/web/fr/climat/climat_aujourdhui/retrospective_saisonniere/Bulletin_climatologique_printemps_2013.html
Across the country, the average temperatures for the 3 mo. period from March through May was between 0.7 and 1.8 degrees Celsius below the 30 y norm (1981-2010). This was the coldest Spring since 1987. We got lots of snow in the mountains last month. There is still plenty of snowpack above 2000m, which is raising the chance for snowslides on the passes and causing rivers to overflow their banks further downstream.
Kurt in Switzerland

Brrr.

goldminor says:
June 2, 2013 at 1:58 pm
Perhaps they should stick to hindcasting. If they get really good at that, then they may be able to build a model that can accurately predict the last 24 hours of weather. Wouldn’t that be useful!!!
================
Odds are that predicting today’s weather tomorrow is more accurate than the Met Office forecast. The entire Met Office can be replaced by looking at the past. If it has rained 10% of the time on say June 5 1900 thru 2012, then there is a 10% chance of rain this June 5, 2013. If it has been sunny 60% of the time, there is a 60% chance of sun this June 5, 2013.
Where the Met Office went off the rails was to assume that climate change meant “warming”, so they built warming into their forecasts, which skewed the results. Now we know that climate change means both warming and cooling, more snow and less snow, more rain and less rain, we can pretty much forecast anything and be right, more or less.

Gareth Phillips

We have had to modify our crop growing for some years now in Wales in the light of colder summers so this is not news as such, but the key is, don’t panic, just adapt to cold weather crops and get used to parsnips, Cabbages, peas and beans and look up old recipes.

Solar Cyles

I’m still waiting for this projected rise in temps so I can see my MetO approved Mediterranean plants flourish.

Solar Cycles

I’m still awaiting new research that will link this to arctic sea ice loss and increasing methane levels, come on there must be a correlation there somewhere.

milodonharlani

Gareth Phillips says:
June 2, 2013 at 2:59 pm
Leeks!
Symbol of Wales since the Dark Ages Cold Period.

Latitude

cheshirered says:
June 2, 2013 at 1:55 pm
====
LOL…yes they did
They gave it even odds across the board…..

milodonharlani

Hey, Vicky!
The Holocene Climate Optimum lasted thousands of years. The Arctic warmed by up to 4 °C (one study found winter warming of 3 to 9 °C and summer of 2 to 6 °C in northern central Siberia), yet the Greenland Ice Sheet didn’t melt away.

Mike McMillan

See – owe to Rich says: June 2, 2013 at 1:29 pm
…I thought that a feature of AGW was that one wasn’t supposed to get cold nights?
Richard.

No, that’s Urban Heat Island effect. Cold nights are due to a temporary reduction of TSI when the sun goes down.
It’s a common misconception.

BobW in NC

No, no, no! Y’all have it all wrong.
As reported in the reliable and unbiased Huffington Post (ENERGY SECRETARY ERNEST MONIZ: CLIMATE CHANGE IS ‘NOT DEBATABLE’ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/24/energy-secretary-ernest-moniz_n_3332401.html ), our new Energy Secretary, Ernest Moniz, proclaimed at his swearing in:
“I am not interested in debating what is not debatable…”
There! It can’t be colder! Can it? /sarc/

View from the Solent

It’s not just England.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/10094497/June-opening-for-French-ski-resort-as-temperatures-plummet-in-Europe.html
“The Pyrenees resort of Porte Puymorens reopened this weekend as plummeting temperatures and rain played havoc with weather across Europe. …………..Slopes were originally shut at the end of the official season in April, but after the coldest spring in France for more than 25 years snow which should have melted weeks ago is still in place.

Fanakapan

Ms Pope’s prior certainty, combined with her (presumably) continuing employment, tend to confirm Shaw’s observation with regard to the Professions, and their relationship to the laity 🙂

Werner Brozek

Although the cold Spring has been due in large part to the exceptionally cold weather in March, which was the coldest since 1892
However globally, the situation for March was very different. Here are the ranks for March on six different data sets. The data sets are: UAH, RSS, HadCRUT4, HadCRUT3, Hadsst2 and GISS. The ranks, based on the assumption that the March anomaly would be the case for the whole year: 9th, 10th, 12th, 12th, 12th and 9th.

Jimbo

Some great stuff from the Met Office blog back in 12 November, 2012.

………..However, it’s not useful for most other people as it doesn’t give one forecast for what’s ahead – rather it outlines potential scenarios and their associated probabilities…….
Ultimately, we’re heading into winter and we expect winter to be colder than the rest of the year – but it’s too early to say exactly what temperatures we can expect or where and when we might see snow.
http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/11/12/whats-in-store-this-winter-responding-to-the-headlines/

Mike Pickett, Global Warming Petition participant

If we can’t get this latest solar cycle named after Eddy, Britain being an example of the ongoing Minimum, might I suggest:”latest weather gore” or some such???

Jimbo

Winter will soon be a is just a thing of the past. Children won’t know what Winter is.
Express – 8 February 2008
Winter has gone for ever and we should officially bring spring forward instead, one of the country’s most respected gardeners said yesterday……”There is no winter any more despite a cold snap before Christmas. It is nothing like years ago when I was younger. There is a real problem with spring because so much is flowering so early year to year.”
[Dr Nigel Taylor – botanist ]
Guardian, 26 Aug 2006.
Spring is arriving earlier each year as a result of climate change, the first ‘conclusive proof’ that global warming is altering the timing of the seasons, scientists announced yesterday.”

Jimbo

Hi Homewood, you might want to bookmark these quotes for future reference. They are made by scientists in the past predicting milder winters with less snow. Mentions of spring tool
http://notrickszone.com/2013/04/04/climate-science-humiliated-earlier-model-prognoses-of-warmer-winters-now-todays-laughingstocks/

Rbravery

Proof, if proof were needed, that global warming… etc etc ad on infinitum

jorgekafkazar

“Ultimately, we’re heading into winter and we expect winter to be colder than the rest of the year…” MetOfficeNews
An amazingly intrepid prediction! What profound sagacity! What intellectual brilliance! What deep cognizance! O brave new world, that has such people…innit?
/guess what?