My Testimony On New York’s “Scoping Plan” To Achieve Net Zero Carbon Emissions

From the MANHATTAN CONTRARIAN

Francis Menton

Today I trekked out to Brooklyn to testify at a public hearing on New York’s plans to achieve “net zero” electricity by 2030 or so, and a “net zero” economy by 2050. Actually, it wasn’t much of a trek — the hearing took place at an auditorium in Brooklyn Heights, near the first subway stop on the other side of the East River.

The organization holding the hearing was the New York Climate Action Council. This body was created under New York’s Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act of 2019 (Climate Act), and is tasked with figuring out how to achieve the statutorily mandated net zero targets. The first statutory target is 40% reduction in carbon emissions by 2030, which as a practical matter means that fossil fuels must be almost completely eliminated from the electricity sector by that date. The Council issued its Draft Scoping Plan for how to achieve the targets on December 30, 2021. The Draft Scoping Plan is some 300 pages of text plus 500 pages of appendices; but the gist comes down to, we will order the private sector to eliminate emissions by various dates certain, and then it is up to the little people to work out the details. Today’s hearing allowed for members of the public to comment on the Draft Scoping Plan, supposedly so that any appropriate adjustments can be made before the Plan becomes final later this year.

The Climate Action Council has some 21 members. A full list can be found here. Seven of the 21 attended today’s hearing. I’m going to give you a list of these people and their titles, to give an indication of the extent to which the Council is dominated by environmental activists and political functionaries with no background or interest in how a huge electrical grid might actually get converted to “net zero” as an engineering matter. The members present were: Doreen Harris, President and CEO of the New York Energy Research and Development Authority; Basil Seggos, Commissioner of the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation; Roberta Reardon, Commissioner of the New York State Department of Labor; Robert Rodriguez, Acting Secretary of State of New York; RuthAnne Visnauskas, Commissioner and CEO, New York State Homes and Community Renewal; Peter Iwanowicz, Executive Director, Environmental Advocates NY; and Raya Salter, Lead Policy Organizer, NY Renews. Of these, maybe Ms. Harris of NYSERDA knows something about how the electrical grid works. Then again, maybe she doesn’t.

Speakers got two minutes each to address the members of the Council. The hearing was scheduled for 4 hours, from 4 – 8 PM. Some 200+ people had signed up, so clearly many did not get the chance to speak. My turn came about two hours in, shortly before 6 PM, by which time about 50 – 60 people had spoken before me. After I spoke, I stuck around for about 20 more minutes before leaving. So I heard a total of around 60 people give comments.

A summary of the 60 or so comments before me will give you readers an idea of what we are up against. Of the 60, exactly 4 were not fully on board with the crash program to replace all fossil fuels in New York with some combination of wind and solar “renewables,” storage, and/or the magical not-yet-invented “DEFR” (Dispatchable Emissions Free Resource) often mentioned in the Scoping Plan. The four who were not fully on board consisted of two advocates for nuclear power (note that New York just closed its last downstate nuclear plant last year, well before the end of its useful life — so nuclear is clearly going nowhere), plus one representative of each of the two large utilities, Con Edison and National Grid. In the case of the utilities, the message was, of course we’re on board, but we’ll just have to work together, and maybe you might need to go a little slower and maybe allow for some so-called “green” hydrogen in the mix, or something.

Then there were the other well-over-50 speakers. Some were politicians or their representatives (Public Advocate Jumaane Williams was there in person; Comptroller Brad Lander sent a sub; multiple City Council members were there in person, and many more sent subs; the Mayor’s office sent several, mostly from the Mayor’s “climate” office). Then there were many representatives of environmental activist organizations, including multiple from each of Greenpeace and the Sierra Club, plus well over a dozen more from various local groups. There were lots of pastors and others representing religious groups, a plurality of them Jewish (not surprising in Brooklyn). And there was a good number of private citizens speaking for themselves, although these were a clear minority.

The overriding message was an emotional plea to the Climate Council to please, please save us from these evil fossil fuels before it is too late for ourselves and our children and our planet. Several used the opening line, “I’m here today because I’m scared.” Multiple speakers choked back tears. Easily 20 speakers invoked Hurricanes Sandy (2012) and Ida (2021), as if reducing usage of natural gas could somehow end the risk of severe storms. An overlapping group of at least 20 went on about the increasing incidence of childhood asthma, as if atmospheric CO2 has something to do with that. Another overlapping group of at least 20 asserted that climate change was differentially harming what they called “justice communities” (when did that term come into vogue?); and therefore “justice demands” the elimination of fossil fuels. One lady focused specifically on the increasing rate of teen suicide, which she asserted was entirely attributable to fossil-fuel-induced climate change.

And no event like this could go without a critical mass of cynical hucksters looking to use the opportunity to make themselves a quick buck. At least four presenters styled themselves as “consultants” who would advise owners how to upgrade their buildings to comply with the new rules. Needless to say, all of these people argued for specific rules to advantage what they were selling, and also asked for state funding to help the building owners pay for it. Meanwhile, self-appointed representatives of the “justice communities” also unsurprisingly had their hands out for grants and taxpayer funding of various sorts, often with only the most tenuous relationship to carbon emissions or climate change.

So basically that left me and the two nuclear guys as the only ones out of about 60 advocating for anything approaching sanity. What follows is an approximate text of my presentation (I had to leave a few lines out here and there while speaking in order to meet the two minute cutoff):

My name is Francis Menton. I live in Manhattan. I am testifying as a private citizen.

I feel like I am in the crowd that has come to observe the grand procession where the Emperor unveils his new clothes. The Emperor has no clothes on. He is completely naked. Am I the only one who can see this?

100% carbon free electricity or energy for New York, at least unless based substantially on nuclear, is not different from the Emperor’s new clothes. It is a ridiculous and dangerous fantasy. It will not and cannot happen. It will shortly run into the wall off physical reality.

I will briefly address three aspects:

  1. Energy storage
  2. Hydrogen
  3. The global context

Energy storage.

Supposedly, we are replacing our fossil fuel generation (mostly natural gas) with wind and sun. Sun does not work at night, and there is little in the winter. Wind does not work when it is calm. Neither works on a calm night.

How do you plan to back this up when we have no more coal or natural gas? The treatment of this subject in the Scoping Plan is breathtakingly incompetent. Where is the calculation of how much storage you will need to get through a full year? The Scoping Plan doesn’t even make that calculation in the correct units, which are gigawatt hours.

You’re going to need at least 10,000 GWH of storage to back up just current usage if you replace a fossil fuel generation with wind and solar. At the price of Tesla batteries, that will run you about $1.5 trillion, which is approximately the entire GDP of New York State. If you triple electricity consumption by electrifying vehicles and homes, then you must triple the storage, and it will cost at least 3 times GDP. And by the way, you need a battery that can store electricity all the way from summer to winter without all the energy dissipating and then discharge over the course of months. No existing battery can do that.

This can’t be done. How could you commit us to this without any feasibility study, any detailed cost workup, let alone a demonstration project showing that it can be done?

Hydrogen.

Hydrogen is not the answer to this. To generate hydrogen from water is enormously costly. And then you promptly lose about three-quarters of the energy you expended, because one-quarter is all you get back when you burn the hydrogen. And then, the H2 is inferior in every way to natural gas:

  • H2 is only about one-fourth as energy dense by volume as natural gas. Are you planning to quadruple all the pipeline capacity?
  • H2 is much more a danger to explode than is natural gas.
  • H2 is a tiny molecule that is very difficult to keep from leaking. And very corrosive to metal pipes. Do all homeowners have to replace their internal pipes?
  • How much more does H2 cost than natural gas? 5 times? 10 times? Where is the detailed cost study? Where is the demonstration project?

Nobody currently does hydrogen at large scale and there are very good reasons for that.

The Global Context

New York’s average electricity usage is around 20 GW. You’re talking about building a “massive” 9 GW of new offshore wind turbines in the effort to go carbon free.

Meanwhile, do you know what China is doing? Just this year, they are building 47 GW of new coal plants. Those will produce all the time, versus only one-third of the time for our wind turbines, so China is building just this year in coal plants some 15 times our planned massive wind turbine development.

And then they have another 100+ GW of coal plants in the works for just the next couple of years.

And then there’s India. They have about the same population as China (1.4 billion, which is 70x our population). India is way behind China on electrification. They explicitly say they are going to do it with coal. That will be well over 1000 GW of coal capacity by the time they are done.

And then there’s Africa. They have about 1 billion people — and 2 billion projected by 2100. And most of those people have no electricity at all. They’re also going to do it with coal.

Who are we trying to kid here? To the extent that New York is able to reduce emissions somewhat, it will be completely insignificant in the global context.

The whole project for New York is completely unworkable, wildly expensive, and utterly meaningless in the global context. People, this emperor has no clothes.

Thank you.

I’m not fooling myself into thinking that this will have any immediate impact. I will say that among all the other speakers, not a one addressed or attempted to refute any of my points.

Read the full article here.

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Derg
May 4, 2022 6:05 pm

Thank you for trying. Hopefully NY and CA idiotic energy policies do not spread.

I love CO2.

Frank from NoVA
Reply to  Derg
May 4, 2022 7:24 pm

‘Hopefully NY and CA idiotic energy policies do not spread.’

Too late. Stanford just announced it’s opening a new school to tackle climate change:

‘Investments of $1.1 billion from John and Ann Doerr, along with gifts from other philanthropists, catalyze interdisciplinary efforts to tackle urgent climate and sustainability challenges facing people and ecosystems worldwide.’

Dave Fair
Reply to  Frank from NoVA
May 4, 2022 7:40 pm

$1.1 billion (+) ain’t going to go far to “… tackle urgent climate and sustainability challenges facing people and ecosystems worldwide.”

Frank from NoVA
Reply to  Dave Fair
May 4, 2022 8:48 pm

No, but it will certainly serve to indoctrinate a lot of folk with the narrative. I guess the point I was trying to make is that, notwithstanding the actual facts, we are being seriously out gunned on the pr side.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Frank from NoVA
May 4, 2022 9:27 pm

Of course we’re seriously out gunned, Frank; Western governments and do-gooder billionaires are spending trillions of dollars to push a socialist narrative. Only when regular folks are severely punished will the trend be eradicated. Yellow vests and protest signs might be replaced by body-armor and firearms. Aw, I’m just cranky. It’s getting late and I’m tired.

Reply to  Dave Fair
May 4, 2022 10:38 pm

Two years ago, I sent Stanford’s provost, Persis Drell a link of my paper demonstrating the utter unreliability of climate models, along with the comment that the IPCC cannot possibly know what it claims to know.

Persis is a top ranking particle physicist. The message of the paper could not have been lost on her. Her response was silence.

Since then, Stanford has invested in 107 MW of solar PV in SoCal to become “carbon neutral,” and now this new School of Sustainability.

It’s all virtuous cover for getting the money. The grants and donations flow when the project follows the holy narrative.

Stanford University itself has become a School of Griftability, with the upper management teaching by example. Sorry to say, Stanford has become a criminal enterprise.

Janice Moore
Reply to  Pat Frank
May 4, 2022 10:57 pm

Precisely, Professor Frank.

– Intentionally

– Asserting information one knows is unproven (or reasonably should know is unproven) as fact

– To cause someone to give you their money (or the money of others, e.g., that of investors in a mutual fund or of your taxpayer constituents)

Is a crime (it is also a common-law tort).

It’s called “Fraud.”

But, I suppose, if you were to submit your paper to one of the legal scholars over at Stanford Law, your Complaint would, there also, elicit no Answer.

How. Sad.

Yes, revolting and shameful, but, given all the good historically accomplished at Leland Stanford University, tragic. Thus, “sad.”

Last edited 19 days ago by Janice Moore
Kevin kilty
Reply to  Pat Frank
May 5, 2022 6:30 am

Pat,

Stanford was having problems along these lines decades ago when Donald Kennedy was using research funds inappropriately to pay for his yacht. He then moved from Stanford to begin the destruction of AAAS’s flagship journal, Science, as its Idiotor Editor in Chief.

Frank from NoVA
Reply to  Pat Frank
May 5, 2022 7:02 am

Pat,

You and your paper immediately came to mind when I read the Stanford puff piece. However, all of academia is in on the narrative, e.g.:

‘Princeton will have the most significant impact on the crisis through the scholarship we generate and the people we educate. Indeed, one of the most powerful things that we can do is create the conditions that allow the world’s most promising students and most accomplished faculty to do their best work.’

Sadly, I guess ‘most accomplished faculty’ doing their ‘best work’ doesn’t include Will Happer.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Pat Frank
May 5, 2022 8:21 am

Thanks for the information, Pat. Its just more evidence that corruption is rampant in our institutions and it will take a long time for the edifice to topple. The longer it goes on the bigger it will get and the crash will hurt more people with more severity.

Winter is coming. People should be preparing for the hardships; I am. The ongoing inflation, however, will make acquiring tangible assets more difficult.

Janice Moore
Reply to  Frank from NoVA
May 4, 2022 11:07 pm

In large part due to the lukewarmers muddying the data-driven science message.

Reply to  Janice Moore
May 5, 2022 12:18 am

In large part due to the lukewarmers muddying the data-driven science message.

Janice,
You are correct. By accepting the premise – it is the presence of carbon dioxide gas in the atmosphere that is the problem, then the argument is already lost. The apologists here switch from LW back-radiation heats the ground (false) to atmospheric thermal radiant opacity slows cooling of the ground (an obfuscation).
By starting with a false model of climate as a planetary radiative process rather than what it is a planetary mass and energy movement process then the argument can never be stopped.

Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

Dylan Thomas

Reply to  Janice Moore
May 6, 2022 4:33 pm

Pity.

I am a lukewarmer. CO₂ is a straight molecule that absorbs and emits Infrared radiation within a miniscule infrared radiation band.

That makes CO₂ a greenhouse gas.

These are facts, plain and simple.

Magic neither makes CO₂ warm the atmosphere excessively. Nor is CO₂ completely inactive in the atmosphere.

A 0.04% trace gas that is incapable of warming the remaining 99.86% of gases in the atmosphere, by conduction or radiation. Nor can that atmospheric trace gas 0.04% somehow warm Earth’s oceans or continental rock/dirt masses.

Only, CO₂ is a greenhouse gas.
Perhaps CO₂ is an atmospheric mite, especially with the atmospheric blue whale, water vapor, H₂O, pervasive in the atmosphere.

Water, H₂O, is an angular molecule while CO₂ is a straight molecule.
Water’s angular molecule makes it radiation interactive across the radiation spectrum.

Plus, water is infrared interactive in all three of water’s physical states, gaseous, liquid and solid.

Water moves thermal energy around the atmosphere by condensation, evaporation, convection and conduction.

CO₂’s straight molecule at Earth temperatures, is only infrared interactive in it’s gaseous form and is completely unable to move thermal energy around the atmosphere.

Flyspeck CO₂ and blue whale H₂O are legitimate greenhouse gases. CO₂ may be an atmospheric flyspeck, CO₂ is not inactive.

That makes me a lukewarmer as I admit these facts.

Which of these facts muddies data driven science?

Janice Moore
Reply to  ATheoK
May 6, 2022 5:46 pm

1. I doubt, dear Theo, that you are a true “lukewarmer.” Lukewarmers strongly believe that HUMAN (not CO2, per se, as you were discussing above) CO2 is causing “some” warming.

2. Despite all the data indicating that this is not so (e.g., human CO2 emissions up greatly, warming not up greatly), lukewarmers push the unsupported-by-data speculation that humans are “somewhat” responsible for global warming.

3. Mid-level troposphere warming has never happened (see Kevin “it’s a travesty” Trenberth). That is, AGW is, still not only not proven, it is mere conjecture (and not a true, falsifiable hypothesis).

4. Lukewarmers spend a lot of time keeping the AGW issue alive by publishing articles that tend to cast doubt (i.e., “muddy the waters”) on the emphatically stated, anti-AGW arguments of climate experts such as Richard Lindzen and Murry Salby.

In summary:

A “lukewarmer” undercuts those trying to convince people that human CO2 is not a significant cause of “climate change” by:

— refusing to acknowledge the strong arguments against the conjecture that human CO2 is causing global warming; AND

— by implying that the AGWer’s unproven assertions are more than mere speculation and conjecture.

***************
P. S. I did not endorse Mr. Mulholland’s comment.

Last edited 17 days ago by Janice Moore
Walter Sobchak
Reply to  Dave Fair
May 4, 2022 11:00 pm

The money is going to pay academics, and administrators, lots of administrators, and diversity, equity, and inclusion consultants — so many consultants.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Walter Sobchak
May 5, 2022 8:27 am

Walter, what’s not to like about more people getting on the government money train? It’s endlessly long, like those coal death trains.

walt
Reply to  Dave Fair
May 6, 2022 1:19 pm

The billion keeps the salaries and PR churning out propaganda.

Timothy Buchanan
Reply to  Derg
May 5, 2022 11:14 am

I had some bumper stickers and T-shirts printed, saying I [heart symbol] CO[subscript]2.

Janice Moore
Reply to  Timothy Buchanan
May 5, 2022 1:58 pm

I found the sticker (well, almost)! 😊

comment image

Last edited 18 days ago by Janice Moore
roaddog
Reply to  Janice Moore
May 5, 2022 10:51 pm

Every fossil-fueled truck should have one!

commieBob
May 4, 2022 6:19 pm

I will say that among all the other speakers, not a one addressed or attempted to refute any of my points.

For the same reason the alarmists refuse to debate CAGW (Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming). They’re completely out of their depth, and they know it.

Dave Fair
Reply to  commieBob
May 4, 2022 7:42 pm

Everybody else there saw the Emperor’s new clothes and if you didn’t its “off with his head.”

Reply to  commieBob
May 4, 2022 8:23 pm

An excellent report by my friend Francis Menton. We need to improve our failing economies, but instead they are deliberately sabotaged by woke politicians and leftist fellow-travelers.

POLICIES THAT TURNED AROUND THE CANADIAN ECONOMY – AND WILL BE SUCCESSFUL AGAIN
Use similar economic turnaround policies for the USA, Europe and Australia (switch shale fracking for oil sands).
 
Politicians and economists do their usual Kabuki theatre – create excessive inflation with runaway spending and then crush it with high interest rates – foolish and counter-productive, like killing flies on a glass tabletop – with a sledgehammer.
 
To control inflation and improve the Canadian economy, do this:
[ I/we’ve done this before – See https://energy-experts-international.com/ ]

  1. Cut excessive government spending, which is foolish and destructive;
  2. Do not significantly raise interest rates;
  3. Encourage new energy production by renewing the oil sands tax and royalty terms that I/we initiated in the 1980’s and 90’s;
  4. Complete much-needed oil pipelines to the East and West Coasts and the Gulf of Mexico;
  5. Incentivize waste-to-energy technologies – IF clean and efficient;
  6. Incentivize domestic fertilizer production;
  7. Incentivize domestic food production and processing;
  8. Increase CCA (depreciation) tax rates on most/all manufacturing and quash the silly half-year rule on all CCA calculations;
  9. Reject all woke politicians, media and fellow-travelers who promoted costly and destructive Climate and Covid scams.
  10. Quash unscientific woke nonsense including:
  • the carbon tax to “fight global warming” in a now-cooling world (as we correctly predicted in 2002);
  • grid-connected intermittent unreliable green-energy (wind & solar) electrical generation schemes and subsidies;
  • food-for-fuel schemes, mandates and subsidies for corn ethanol and biodiesel ;
  • hydrogen-for-fuel schemes – methane (natural gas) is a much better and safer fuel.

Regards, Allan MacRae, Calgary
 
SCIENTIFIC COMPETENCE – THE ABILITY TO CORRECTLY PREDICT
20Oct2021, Update 4May2022
https://correctpredictions.ca/

Last edited 19 days ago by Allan MacRae
Reply to  Allan MacRae
May 5, 2022 4:35 am

Re: “I/we’ve done this before” – See https://energy-experts-international.com/
THERE IS EVERY REASON TO BELIEVE THIS PLAN WILL WORK AGAIN.
 
I am primarily responsible for three of the four major initiatives that turned-around the Alberta oil sands industry. These initiatives were new Income Tax and Crown Royalty terms, and increased production at Syncrude that reduced operating costs from $18 to $12 per barrel. The fourth major contribution was SAGD technology, initiated by others. I incorporated these initiatives into a Strategic Plan for Syncrude that was adopted and was hugely successful:
 
Canada became the 4th largest oil producer in the world, the largest foreign energy
supplier to the USA and the strongest economy in the G8 countries for ~2 decades. Investments in the oilsands exceeded $250 billion and over 500,000 jobs were created across Canada. The successful careers of Stephen Harper, Ralph Klein, Mark Carney and many others were enabled through my efforts.
[For USA-equivalent numbers, multiply by 10.]
 
Since I moved away from the Canadian petroleum industry in 1996, little of substance has been accomplished that these four achievements did not initiate.
Much-needed oil pipelines were blocked and even the competent Stephen Harper and colleagues sleep-walked through this decade+ debacle, riding on the success of the past achievements of others but doing little to add value during their years In power. If our politicians had been more competent, they would have forced through the Energy East pipeline to the East Coast, another oil pipeline to the West Coast, and pipelines such as Keystone XL to move our oil to Houston. These are monumental failures by politicians and industry that are now being ignored. They should have done much better and Canada and the USA would be much more secure and prosperous.

Last edited 19 days ago by Allan MacRae
DMacKenzie
Reply to  Allan MacRae
May 5, 2022 8:20 am

Allan has taken DK to new limits of self importance.

Reply to  DMacKenzie
May 5, 2022 1:21 pm

DMacKenzie:
It says above “See https://energy-experts-international.com/
The facts are there. Why didn’t you read them?
 
For the record:
 
Dr. David W. Devenny, P.Eng., P.Geol., Past President of APEGA, the Association of Professional Engineers and Geoscientists of Alberta,
Fellow of the Canadian Academy of Engineering, nominates Allan MacRae, B.A.Sc., M. Eng. for… :
 
A) Initiatives that drove major economic growth of Syncrude Canada, the Alberta oil sands and the Canadian economy
 
In the 1980’s and 1990’s, Allan initiated (or co-initiated) and successfully proposed three of the four major changes that drove the successful growth of the Alberta oil sands. Changes included new income tax terms, new Crown royalty terms and a low-cost 50% production increase that reduced Syncrude unit operating costs by 30%. Allan also recommended that Syncrude acquire new leases for growth, and technical innovations that improved performance and reduced costs.
 
Allan incorporated these initiatives into a comprehensive strategy for Syncrude, which was implemented and was instrumental in the successful evolution and growth of Syncrude and the Alberta oil sands industry.
 
The oil sands industry became the mainstay of the Canadian economy for 15 years, with over $250 billion in new capital investments and approximately 500,000 new jobs created. Canada became the fifth-largest oil producer in the world and the most successful economy of the G8 countries.
 
My update:
Canada is now the fourth largest oil producer in the world, and the largest foreign energy supplier to the USA. ~80% of that oil is from Alberta, and most of that is from the oil sands. The oil sands are still the mainstay of the Canadian economy.
 
B) Actions that prevented a potentially catastrophic sour gas disaster at the Mazeppa project near Calgary
 
In May 2016, Allan MacRae, as an uninvolved citizen, became aware of unsafe operating procedures at the Mazeppa critical sour gas project near Calgary. At some personal risk, he investigated, consulted with trusted colleagues, and following the Code of Conduct of Alberta’s Professional Engineers (APEGA), he reported his concerns to the Alberta Energy Regulator (AER), and followed up to ensure proper compliance.

The AER quickly shut down the Mazeppa project, and canceled all 1600 operating licenses of the parent company, which was placed in receivership and bankruptcy. The Managing Director was fined and sanctioned.

This was the most severe reprimand of a company in the history of the Alberta energy industry. A 2005 analysis of Mazeppa wells by the Alberta ERCB concluded that an uncontrolled sour gas release would affect an area within a 15km radius and could kill or injure up to 250,000 people.
 
My update:
The employees at Mazeppa should have reported this matter to the AER, but were afraid of the Chinese thugs who owned and ran the project.
My informant was not fully aware of the H2S problem, and took ~15 minutes into our conversation to mention that the owners had stopped injecting anti-corrosion chemicals into the sour gas pipelines to save money. He also did not know that 22 years earlier, I had engineering responsibility for all my former company’s conventional oil and gas facilities in Canada, and one of them was Mazeppa. The Chinese were the third owners after us.
The Alberta Energy Regulator (AER) tried to allege that they were aware of “problems” at Mazeppa, but they were completely unaware of this vital corrosion issue.
I immediately contacted two experts – my longtime friends Dr Devenny, an eminent engineer, and Dr. Kent, a specialist physician and respiratory expert.
The words “kill or injure” above should probably read “kill”. H2S is a neurotoxin that is instantly fatal at concentrations of less than 0.1%. Most/all significant exposures to H2S would have been fatal. Mazeppa was producing 40% H2S, which is heavier-than-air and so does not dissipate upwards but creeps along the ground and gathers in low-lying areas. The lowest-lying area in the region is the Bow River Valley and downtown Calgary.
By 2016, the population in SE Calgary had increased to ~300,000 people and Calgary had grown to ~1.2 million.
I later learned that minor leaks due to internal corrosion had already started to appear in the sour gas pipelines.
It was a close call. Calgary didn’t “dodge a bullet”’; we dodged a nuke.

Last edited 19 days ago by Allan MacRae
DMacKenzie
Reply to  Allan MacRae
May 6, 2022 7:39 am

Get real Allan, you were one of many senior insightful engineers (mostly humble ones) who worked on the oil sands, and Mazeppa was shut down because they weren’t paying anyone, including my company, one of many who petitioned them into bankruptcy. The H2S issue was simply government justification to shut down the, as you call them, “Chinese thugs”. You were just a “useful” citizen with a “danger, danger Will Robinson” story that did help somewhat to speed up the court orders.

Reply to  DMacKenzie
May 7, 2022 6:43 pm

DMac: Your narrative and your sequence of events is 100% false.
 
Mazeppa was shut down weeks after I notified the AER; events including a $200 million failed lawsuit by the Chinese-owned company (Lexin Resources), receivership and bankruptcy of Lexin and sanctioning of Lexin senior management occurred up to 14 months later.
 
If anyone is interested, THE MAZEPPA SOUR GAS STORY is described here. The media almost got it right.
 
Epilogue:
I took safety precautions for myself and my family for the next few years. My confidential informant was afraid to leave his house, even though he was not publicly identified, and became a hopeless alcoholic. I tried to help him, drove him to the hospital three times with the DT’s, etc. but finally gave up.

DMacKenzie
Reply to  Allan MacRae
May 7, 2022 7:11 pm

Again, get real Allan, lawyers were working on the non-payment issues a year before you got your call from your concerned buddy. I know from paying some of their bills.

Reply to  DMacKenzie
May 7, 2022 7:54 pm

Lexin had not paid their surface lease rentals and that was published in the newspapers – everyone knew that. Lexin was also not paying some/all of their suppliers and contractors but that had not yet made the papers.
Lexin was moving all their revenues to a wholly-owned European bank while they deliberately pillaged the operation.
The AER dropped the ball by not investigating further – a 40% sour gas project with 12 wells within one mile of city limits, heavily-populated suburbs and the new SE hospital – what could possibly go wrong?
But everything you alleged above is false and I expect you know that. At best, you are extremely ill-informed.
More likely, you know you are lying, just to make mischief.
You have not taken the time to read the facts, but chose to fabricate your own false narrative. Enough of you and your lies.

Reply to  Allan MacRae
May 8, 2022 9:20 am

One last point – I almost forgot – the judgement of experts:

The Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE), the International Association of that profession, gave me an award for preventing a potential catastrophe at the Mazeppa sour gas project. Nice!

About Emergencies:
If you manage them correctly, they are not dramatic and hardly anybody knows about them. At my Kazakhstan project in the 1990’s I successfully managed two armed hostage crises where my people were held at gunpoint – one at our office in the old capital, Almaty and one at our field camp in the Central Asian Desert. Nobody got hurt and everyone got to go home – even the criminals. I never called the local authorities because they are much more violent than the criminals – they typically want to show who’s boss, and “come in shooting and let God sort them out”.
The key is to de-escalate, treat the demands of the criminals with respect, negotiate a reasonable settlement, and hire better security after they leave. Avoid drama and confrontation – messy. That project was later sold for US$4.2 billion to the Chinese.

One notable exception was the work of my heroes at Safety Boss at the Fires of Kuwait, after the 1991 Gulf War:
The Kuwait Fires Project provided a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to lead a team that could help control an oilfield disaster of previously unimagined proportions. Mike Miller and the Safety Boss crews proved a match for the task at hand. In just 200 days, the Safety Boss team brought 180 wells under control – outperforming all other crews in the field including such industry legends at Red Adair and Boots & Coots.
I met Mike Miller at our local Safeway, had a nice chat and congratulated him on his great achievement. Amazing teamwork.

The end.

Kevin from Australia
May 4, 2022 6:24 pm

Brilliant and utterly coherent. But like here, those who should be listening are deaf to truth and scientific published facts. From school kids to Parliaments, they have been overtaken by socialist propaganda and ideology. With a national election here later this month, we are facing a “Biden” new socialist left leader and USA style socialist government. God help us.

Reply to  Kevin from Australia
May 5, 2022 2:45 am

I agree, a great and intelligent presentation. I too have done the 2 minute thing here in New Zealand many times…they listen politely but then just carry on as before now that their ‘consultation’ has been done. Still, they do need to know that others can see through the scam and are watching them.

Hadn’t thought of the Emperor’s New Clothes approach…might pinch that for next time if that’s OK!

Mike Lowe
Reply to  Alastair Brickell
May 5, 2022 1:09 pm

The thought of “our Emperor” without clothes is revolting, as we all should be here in NZ!

Reply to  Mike Lowe
May 6, 2022 5:41 am

Be careful you don’t get accused of calling Cindy socialist “fluff”! Amazing that she has so little to do that she has the time to get involved in the “Asian Fluff” thing here!

Reply to  Kevin from Australia
May 5, 2022 5:04 am

Climate and Covid are false crises, concocted by wolves to stampede the sheep for political and financial gain.
Global Warming (aka Climate) alarmism is a decades-old scam, exposed as CO2 continues to increase in a currently-cooling world.
The Covid-19 Lockdowns and Vaccines were never justified – scams that were proved ineffective and harmful long ago.
 
There is a powerful logic that says no rational person or group could be this stupid for this long. Our governments were advised two decades ago that they were doing wrong on Climate and two years ago that they were doing wrong on Covid, and they proceeded anyway. There is a point, long since past, when willful stupidity and colossal incompetence no longer provide a credible defense.
 
Needless harm is being deliberately caused by woke traitors like Biden, Trudeau, Johnson, Macron, Merkel, Morrison, Ardern, etc. who are under the toxic influence of Klaus Schwab and the WEF and the totalitarians who seek control of the world’s population.
 
Given our natural resources, our people and our fortunate location in the world, the USA and Canada should lead the world in economic success and standard-of-living. We have been dragged down by leftist elites at home and abroad, traitors who have done us enormous harm and will continue to do so unless we respond in a rational and positive manner to end their sabotage of our society.  

Reply to  Allan MacRae
May 5, 2022 8:09 am

This video just arrived from the eminent Dr Robert Malone, (co-inventor of mRNA technology):
DR ROBERT MALONE: TIME TO FLUSH OUT ALL WEF MEMBERS FROM OUR GOVERNMENTS (rumble.com)
See my post above re “woke traitors like Biden, Trudeau, Johnson, Macron, Merkel, Morrison, Ardern, etc. who are under the toxic influence of Klaus Schwab and the WEF…”
Our institutions have been infiltrated by these criminals – Dr Malone is correct – it’s time to flush them out and shut them down.

Mike Lowe
Reply to  Allan MacRae
May 5, 2022 1:11 pm

Thanks for including our current Marxist “emperor” Ardern!

Reply to  Mike Lowe
May 5, 2022 2:24 pm

Ardern is so utterly unattractive, with her incessant head-bobbing as she stridently spouts blatant lie after lie about Climate and Covid.
She knows she is lying, but thinks she is credible as she speaks even louder, stares more intently at her victim and bobs her head more and more – characteristics of a sociopath.

The Ultimate Woke Karen Bobblehead!

Tom Halla
May 4, 2022 6:37 pm

The greens are fundamentally unserious people. Wishful thinking works as a fundraising tactic, so why not extend it generally?
Who cares that their plans require devices that do not exist? The willingness of greens to blow smoke up the asses of the public should not be underestimated. Witness the serious gaslighting program to excuse wind from having anything to do with the near crash in Texas in February 2021.
They are a shameless cult, and have no regard for reality.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Tom Halla
May 4, 2022 7:46 pm

Conversely, the willingness of the public to severely punish those they believe seriously harm them should not be underestimated, Tom. There will be a backlash when the cost fit hits the shan.

Ron Long
May 4, 2022 6:49 pm

Dysfunctional and proud of it. New York is losing population, and it looks like many of them are going to Florida.

otsar
Reply to  Ron Long
May 4, 2022 7:19 pm

G’s waiting room.

al Miller
May 4, 2022 7:03 pm

Common sense well said!
So the establishment will promptly ignore it!

Dave Fair
Reply to  al Miller
May 4, 2022 7:48 pm

I wonder if their engineers are telling them the same thing and they are trying to pre-position themselves for a gradual face-saving retreat. The energy gal has to have the data.

Last edited 19 days ago by Dave Fair
Janice Moore
Reply to  Dave Fair
May 4, 2022 9:20 pm

“energy gal” 😆

Dave Fair
Reply to  Janice Moore
May 4, 2022 9:34 pm

Too lazy to go back up and look in the report.

Janice Moore
Reply to  Dave Fair
May 4, 2022 11:00 pm

And how glad I am that you didn’t. Thanks for the laugh.

And, thanks for all your enthusiasm around this place. 🙂

Dave Fair
Reply to  Janice Moore
May 5, 2022 8:35 am

Janice, you seem to be the enthusiastic one. Me, I’m old, cynical and cranky. The cynicism and irritability come from observing too much of human nature over time.

Janice Moore
Reply to  Dave Fair
May 5, 2022 11:46 am

I, too, have to guard my heart against becoming hardened at how coldly, even, cruelly, I and others have been treated. “Set[ting] [my] mind[] on noble, excellent, or praiseworthy,” people like these helps. 🙂

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Last edited 19 days ago by Janice Moore
RPercifield
May 4, 2022 7:22 pm

While your words were cogent and effective, they will not dissuade the insanity. Only when the lights don’t turn on or the water pipes freeze in the winter will they realize that they are on the wrong path. The Europeans are starting to realize this now with the Russian gas situation. It will take a complete failure of the energy system to get this nonsense stopped. Maybe we on the other side of the pond will learn, I am not holding my breath.

CoRev
Reply to  RPercifield
May 5, 2022 4:37 am

“It will take a complete failure of the energy system to get this nonsense stopped.”
It didn’t change Texas nor California. They continue to double down on renewable electricity sources.

Using Texas as an example, the ideologues called for even more use of wind/solar while blaming the failure of gas for the recent power failure. Then calling for hardening of the gas generation forces they complain of the rising prices.

The only solution is to fairly compare prices and costs. Intermittent renewables can not exist without far less intermittent backup sources. Including those backup costs in renewable price comparisons will quickly point out the craziness of renewable implementation proposal.

Alternatively, we can watch electricity prices rise. As mine has by 1/3 this year alone. The difference is because my cooperative, prior a 100% buyer, became a intermittent producer of ?cheap? PV power.

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  CoRev
May 5, 2022 5:58 am

The problem with Texas and California is that there is still a fair amount of plasticity in the system. This will fade as unreliables continue to penetrate the market. At some point, the system will experience “brittle failure”, and then the chickens will come home to roost.

Dave Fair
Reply to  CoRev
May 5, 2022 8:41 am

Yeah, but at least co-ops are small enough to be generally responsible to average members through direct elections of boards of directors. Take it from an ex-manager of an electric co-op: Members are touchy about rates.

markl
May 4, 2022 7:24 pm

More logic but thank you for trying. It will take a MAJOR grid outage to convince people that we aren’t ready for depending on renewables yet. Even then you can count on the MSM to blame it on fossil fuels.

Dave Fair
Reply to  markl
May 4, 2022 7:51 pm

You can’t fool all of the people all of the time no matter the MSM ideology. Reality becomes obvious when your family’s food is on the line.

Mike Lowe
Reply to  markl
May 5, 2022 1:14 pm

Maybe the deaths of hundreds of German power-consumers next winter will convince the idiots. Maybe!!!

John the Econ
May 4, 2022 7:39 pm

Thanks for the effort. Unfortunately, you’ve already explained why it was largely futile. We are de-evolving from what made our civilization great. These decisions have been made based almost entirely on feelings over science or fact, just like decisions were made in the dark ages. Most of these people do not have a clue as to what has made their historically comfortably and easy lives possible. They comfortably assume that the miraculous technologies that we take for granted everywhere else in our society can address this if only certain greedy people would get of of the way.

The only question I see is if NYC will become uninhabitable because of social collapse or because the lights went out for good.

David S
May 4, 2022 7:46 pm

Unfortunately the left is immune to logic.

Mr.
Reply to  David S
May 4, 2022 8:26 pm

Yes.
The left always seek to implement their plans through authoritarian edict / regulations / penalties rather than through convincing presentation of rational, properly costed plans for implementation with cost:benefit analysis to persuade people.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Mr.
May 5, 2022 8:43 am

That takes too much effort, with uncertain outcomes.

Dan
May 4, 2022 7:56 pm

It’s not really about reducing carbon emissions. It’s about political and economic control over people’s lives after they’ve been duped into supporting these measures to combat a non-existent crisis.

CD in Wisconsin
May 4, 2022 8:05 pm

“A summary of the 60 or so comments before me will give you readers an idea of what we are up against. Of the 60, exactly 4 were not fully on board with the crash program to replace all fossil fuels in New York with some combination of wind and solar “renewables,” storage…”

*************

Where the heck is a huge urban metropolis like Greater NYC going to find enough surface area for wind turbines and solar panels to meet the demand for electricity for umpteen million people 24/7? Do they think that putting solar panels on the roofs of all of those high-rise towers and other buildings in Manhattan is going to suffice? Do they believe that NYC gets the amount of sunshine annually that Phoenix, Las Vegas or L.A. get?

And they just shut down a nuclear plant north of NYC.

It never ceases to amaze and frustrate me that leftist politicians, environmental and other leftist groups are always on center stage here, all of whom have no background in the physics of energy nor the engineering of keeping a massive electrical grid up and running.

It is patently obvious to me that eco-religion and politics are the only things at work here and not a single thread of science or common sense. A brainless cult.

starzmom
Reply to  CD in Wisconsin
May 5, 2022 5:55 am

NYC plans to get its wind power from the Great Plains states, and its solar from the desert Southwest. And somehow it will magically teleport itself to NYC without those awful high voltage lines. And then batteries–more black box magic–will solve the rest of the problem.

Kevin kilty
Reply to  starzmom
May 5, 2022 6:51 am

Indeed, these folks have learned wrong lessons by their past experience. They pass laws, and then someone else figures out how to implement these laws. They never actually measure the effect of these laws. They move on immediately to “solve” the next problem without looking back at all.

When dealing with technology however they fail to see they are now up against the fundamentals of how the universe works. They have no basis for understanding this. No one is going to take their commands and “make them work”. And the universe itself will supply the look-back they avoid in all other situations.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Kevin kilty
May 5, 2022 8:47 am

Yeah, but in the meantime they will have alot of fun and make alot of money in beating back the tides.

starzmom
Reply to  Kevin kilty
May 5, 2022 10:56 am

Among the many problems with that wishful scheme is that we in the Great Plains do not have anywhere near enough wind to meet our own needs, much less someone else’s. I am sure the same thing is true in the desert Southwest as well, with solar. That small fact does not appear to have occurred to them.

Tim Gorman
Reply to  starzmom
May 5, 2022 2:55 pm

Not only do we not have enough wind (and the Great Plains are supposed to be a windy place!) we don’t have the infrastructure to transport it if we did!

roaddog
Reply to  starzmom
May 5, 2022 10:56 pm

I think we have plenty of wind. What we don’t have effective technology for using it to generate electricity.

Tim Gorman
Reply to  roaddog
May 6, 2022 4:50 am

Even in the Great Plains the wind dies at night, just like solar does. Since the entire continental US is dark for part of the night, how do you figure we have enough wind? We don’t have enough wind at night to provide for demand PLUS recharging any grid-level batteries used to carry us through the night.

If the source, i.e. wind, doesn’t provide enough energy then there can be no effective technology for using it to generate electricity. No wind- no energy – no electricity.

Dave Fair
Reply to  CD in Wisconsin
May 5, 2022 8:45 am

Yeah, but engineering and economics are so difficult, and boring to boot.

Tom.1
May 4, 2022 8:22 pm

Francis, your comment about hydrogen being corrosive to metal is simply incorrect, so you should avoid mentioning that in the future.

Frank from NoVA
Reply to  Tom.1
May 4, 2022 8:53 pm

Maybe not corrosive, but you should look up ‘hydrogen embrittlement’. I’ve seen it’s effect on some serious pipe, aka, drill collars.

Tom.1
Reply to  Frank from NoVA
May 5, 2022 3:04 am

Hydrogen embrittlement occurs when you have monatomic hydrogen present which can happen during welding or when corrosion processes are taking place at the metal surface. The problem is well understood and not a factor in present day uses of hydrogen in modern piping systems. It is simply wrong to suggest that any kind of piping carrying high purity hydrogen would be deteriorated over time due to hydrogen embrittlement. Piping systems carrying hydrogen in refineries and chemical plants as well as pipelines is in widespread use around the world today. My comments stem from personal experience (a career working in petroleum refineries).
Hydrogen embrittlement – Wikipedia

Tim Gorman
Reply to  Tom.1
May 5, 2022 6:06 am

from your link:

” Hydrogen may also be introduced over time (external embrittlement) through environmental exposure (soils and chemicals, including water), corrosion processes (especially galvanic corrosion) including corrosion of a coating and cathodic protection.”

I find almost nothing in any literature on the internet about hydrogen embrittlement of wrought iron natural gas piping so common in residences.

Wrought iron piping in residences is subject to the very environmental exposures listed above.

Before you pooh-pooh the impact of hydrogen on residential gas piping you might want to do some more research.

Tom.1
Reply to  Tim Gorman
May 5, 2022 6:23 am

The hydrogen inside the pipe has no control over exterior (external) corrosion processes, so this is irrelevant. Any change in service of any piping system will require an engineering review. I’m not suggesting using hydrogen in existing piping systems without the benefit of doing that review and no one else should either. Modern residential gas piping inside the home is typically coated corrugated stainless steel which should work great for pure hydrogen except that either the diameter or pressure will have to be increased in order to deliver the equivalent BTU’s.

Tim Gorman
Reply to  Tom.1
May 5, 2022 8:39 am

The problem is well understood and not a factor in present day uses of hydrogen in modern piping systems. It is simply wrong to suggest that any kind of piping carrying high purity hydrogen would be deteriorated over time due to hydrogen embrittlement.”

So the H2 supplied to a residence will be 100% moisture free? How do you propose to ensure that?

My house is only 35 years old and considered to be pretty modern. Yet it uses wrought iron gas piping, both inside the house and in the detached garage. I would venture to say that there are more houses today with wrought iron gas piping than with stainless steel.

Tom.1
Reply to  Tim Gorman
May 5, 2022 9:23 am

Natural gas and propane have moisture removed during production. It would be the same with hydrogen. It would be completely dry. I am not making an argument that your existing piping is/will be adequate for hydrogen. I’m only saying that hydrogen related corrosion is not going to be a factor in the use of hydrogen if and when it begins to be used for residential energy.

Tim Gorman
Reply to  Tom.1
May 5, 2022 2:38 pm

Removed to 0%? Color me unconvinced.

Tom.1
Reply to  Tim Gorman
May 5, 2022 2:49 pm

There will be ppm level probably, but no free liquid water. Period.

Gordon A. Dressler
Reply to  Tim Gorman
May 5, 2022 7:57 am

And there is this consideration:
Some of the more common metals that do display a reasonable amount of resistance to hydrogen embrittlement over the normal range of ambient temperature are stainless steels, nickel-based superalloys, titanium alloys, and aluminum alloys.

The problem is, of course, that these alloys in piping form cost an-arm-and-leg more compared to wrought iron or plain steel. In addition, titanium and aluminum alloys can be a b**** to weld out in the field, compared to the ease of welding wrought iron or plain steel out in the field . . . and don’t even begin to think that mechanical joints every 50-100′ piping section would be feasible.

Last edited 19 days ago by Gordon A. Dressler
Tom.1
Reply to  Gordon A. Dressler
May 5, 2022 8:05 am

The gas piping inside my house is already stainless steel. The gas piping outside the house is probably plastic, which would work for H2 also. Steel pipe also works for this service. The big cost factor will not be the materials or new pipe, but the fact that you will need to replace or upgrade existing piping because the existing piping will not have the carrying capacity.

CoRev
Reply to  Gordon A. Dressler
May 5, 2022 8:09 am

Tim & Tom.1, and these new costs are NEVER considered, as the virtue achieved for saving the planet from climate change so overwhelms any such costs./sarc

roaddog
Reply to  CoRev
May 5, 2022 10:58 pm

Cost-benefit analysis has gone extinct.

Kevin kilty
Reply to  Tom.1
May 5, 2022 7:11 am

It is true that some alloys are not subject to hydrogen embrittlement, but to simply try to distribute hydrogen through an existing pipe network seems to me not at all practical. In other words, general distribution of hydrogen is going to require some expensive retrofitting of existing networks.

Tom.1
Reply to  Kevin kilty
May 5, 2022 7:26 am

I think that is right. I’m not suggesting we simply start using the natural gas system for hydrogen. It probably would not work, but for reasons other than corrosion, and the cost will be very high. For instance, existing furnaces, water heaters and stoves will either not work at all or require some modification. Still, we do not need to invent reasons why hydrogen will not work. The economics alone are a sufficient obstacle.

meab
Reply to  Tom.1
May 5, 2022 5:38 pm

Tom 1, you’re completely wrong. Hydrogen is corrosive to many types of metals, even metal welds in metal types that wouldn’t have significant corrosion if there were no welds.

Hydrogen can disassociate at the surface of the vessel, and the greater the hydrogen pressure, the worse the adverse effects get.

The bottom line is that the petroleum industry knows what materials they can and can’t use with hydrogen. Introduce hydrogen into the Natural Gas infrastructure and you’re going to see a train wreck.

https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1727338

By the way, I did my Master’s Thesis on Thermochemical Production of Hydrogen.

Tom.1
Reply to  meab
May 6, 2022 2:23 am

Quoting from the conclusion of the report you cited:

5. Conclusion

Experience with steel vessels and pipelines in the industrial gas and petroleum industries demonstrates that these structures can be operated safely with hydrogen gas, although the experience is limited to certain ranges of material, environmental, and mechanical variables. Gas pressures in vessels and pipelines for the hydrogen economy are certain to exceed the limit in current applications. 

This is exactly what I’ve been saying. I don’t know why they claim future requirements of the hydrogen economy are going to exceed current limits (operating conditions). Future requirements will dictate material requirements; engineering standards will have to be developed.

I have never said we are going to introduce hydrogen into the natural gas system without an engineering review.

What I’m saying is that experience with hydrogen piping systems indicates there is no reason to believe hydrogen related corrosion issues such as hydrogen embrittlement should be considered a showstopper for a hydrogen economy.

Tim Gorman
Reply to  Tom.1
May 6, 2022 5:14 am

The show stopper is the cost. There’s no way I can afford to replace all my wrought iron pipes with stainless steel on a fixed income – especially when you include having to bury the stainless steel to my outbuildings based on current regulations (i.e. greater than 24″).

Who is going to pay for all the replacement costs of wrought iron pipe? It’s as bad as having to rip up every city street in the nation in order to provide charging stations. Where is all the replacement concrete and asphalt going to come from and who is going to pay for it?

Tom.1
Reply to  Tim Gorman
May 6, 2022 5:19 am

This is what I’ve always said. The main impediment to the so-called hydrogen economy is cost. Any materials issues are solvable (IMO), and I don’t understand why people who have no expertise in the area of materials or engineering keep bringing up hydrogen embrittlement.

Rick C
May 4, 2022 8:25 pm

Excellent testimony. I have to believe that there are at least a few of the commissioners who know very well that the plan is total fantasy but are so invested in virtue signaling and geenie appeasement that they can’t admit it. Certainly they know it won’t actually happen and they surely don’t expect to be anywhere near by when the house of cards falls. No one ever seems to be held accountable when governments waste huge amounts of tax-payers money (or, more accurately, money barrowed in the tax-payers name). Just look at how the $5-6 trillion in Covid relief/stimulus funds were largely stolen by fraud and bureaucratic incompetence.

Sadly, things probably have to get worse before they get better. A 2 week mid-winter grid collapse might do it though. Nothing like freezing and starving to rouse the rabble.

Janice Moore
May 4, 2022 9:14 pm

Bravo! Bravo!

– Accurate in all essential points.
– Efficiently and persuasively argued.
– Unanswerable (apparently, heh) by the opposition.

In other words,

Mr. Menton,

you won!

That no one in charge properly acknowledged your win in this debate does not change that fact:

you
won.

As of today, the day after your brave speech, the practical results are yet unseen. You planted seeds for data-driven energy policy, nevertheless. Some of them may grow swiftly and, soon, tower over the rusting hulks of the remains of “renewables” (solar and wind and other nasty weeds such as “carbon storage,” cladding, and electric vehicles).

Grateful for you!

Janice

Doonman
May 4, 2022 9:53 pm

The overriding message was an emotional plea to the Climate Council to please, please save us from these evil fossil fuels before it is too late for ourselves and our children and our planet.

Everyone I ever met who promised to “save us” from anything always asked for money first. The list is endless in this regard and the “net zero” people are no different.

Kevin kilty
Reply to  Doonman
May 5, 2022 6:58 am

 always asked for money first.

Yes, and as is said in Mexico “Music paid for in advance is poorly played.”

Steve Case
May 4, 2022 9:59 pm

Just today, Tony Heller’s page has a post on Bonhoeffer’s Theory of Stupidity there are some pretty good comments over there that parallel what Francis had to say about, “The Scoping Plan”

Some nuggets from Heller’s page

Nietzsche said:
“In individuals insanity is rare but in groups the norm”

Never forget Riskins quote :
When you are 1 step ahead of the crowd you are a genius,
when you are 2 steps ahead you are a crackpot.

Francis Melton is the real life incarnation of Walter Peck in the Mayor’s office scene from Ghost Busters. Google that and it will come right up.

Joel O'Bryan(@joelobryan)
May 4, 2022 10:17 pm

Francis, You might as bang your head repeatedly for 2 minutes on a brick wall instead of trying to talk numbers and common sense to today’s brainwashed and brain dead liberals. It might hurt more, but you’ll make more of a lasting dent.

Rod Evans
May 5, 2022 12:17 am

Whenever such events as this NY open mike opportunity come around they are always overwhelmingly attended by the believers/conformists. There is an obvious reason for this. The believers are in there, they own that comfortable space. They are speaking to the other believers about intangibles. They talk in general terms about mysterious options that will provide comfort for all. Their crusade is to deter the devil, aka fossil fuel, from gaining any place of sanctuary in their preferred future, their idea of utopia.
For those not familiar with public speaking or town hall meeting situations in general, it is worth pointing out. If you go to such events hoping to make a scientific/factual point, be ready for the anger and absolute condemnation heading your way from the believers. They will accept no lessons from anyone and certainly not from a none believer.
A note of caution for those (mainly on this site) who believe in science and truth.
Religion will always hold sway over science. Historic evidence proves that to be the case and more recent legal cases has endorsed the rights of religion over the truth.
Climate alarmism or CAGW is a religion. Draw your own conclusions.
We have to and must continue to point out the truth, but the ‘little people’ particularly children are being indoctrinated and they are the next generation of evangelists.
Keep up the good work WUWT, Galileo and enlightenment happened once, it can happen again.

Last edited 19 days ago by Rod Evans
Derg
Reply to  Rod Evans
May 5, 2022 2:55 am

+1000

Dave Fair
Reply to  Rod Evans
May 5, 2022 8:54 am

Meh. Future generation(s) will have plenty of time to reflect on this period as they collect their ChiCom social credits.

Dean
May 5, 2022 1:17 am

At this point I reckon the only thing which will turn this around is the first super tanker to run aground and prove conclusively that this fantasy is totally unachievable.

fretslider
May 5, 2022 1:57 am

It’s all about investment

Emotional investment

Tom in Florida
May 5, 2022 4:52 am

May I print and use your presentation you show here, giving proper credit to you?

yirgach
May 5, 2022 5:44 am

I like the idea of a “Justice Community”.
I can hear them screaming “No Justice – No Power!”

D. J. Hawkins
May 5, 2022 6:00 am

Francis, I commend your courage. I take it Don Quixote is a hero of yours? 🙂

roaddog
Reply to  D. J. Hawkins
May 5, 2022 9:04 am

We certainly don’t lack for windmills.

Charlie
May 5, 2022 6:12 am

Very well done, Francis Menton . At the very least, when disaster unfolds these people can never claim they weren’t told, didn’t realize or everyone was in agreement about the way forward. They’ve been told.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Charlie
May 5, 2022 8:57 am

Charlie, you seem to think unserious people are reflective. They’ll find someone else to blame.

Doc Chuck
Reply to  Dave Fair
May 5, 2022 10:57 pm

Yup, they’ll happily lie about ever being forewarned too, as the truth is readily recalled as an irritating (formerly scholastic) burden that they’re ‘free at last’ of in favor of every imagined unlimited prospective benefit that is their natural due. Thus like humility, truthful parameters are regarded as unjust bonds to be cast aside in the glorious ascent of optimism.

StevenC.
Reply to  Charlie
May 9, 2022 11:15 am

They will claim that critics like you “sabotaged” their green utopia. That their goals will be achieved when all heretics are silenced and the enemies of Mother Gaia are sent to re-education camps. They don’t have reasoned-out positions, but dogmatic beliefs.

observa
May 5, 2022 6:24 am

Speaking of grid energy storage that’s got serious competition from their EV wet dream-
More Details On EV Battery Production Forecasts For The Future (msn.com)
Just build the battery gigafactories and all will be a happening-
VW’s 2022 supply of EVs is ‘basically sold out’ in the US and Europe (msn.com)

They can’t even satisfy the well to do carbuyer set now with lithium battery production and they’re simply driving up battery resource prices with supply problems. Is it any wonder industry is pursuing expensive hydrogen with these Gummint idiots and their ICE mandates as batteries will never cut it for transport.

Mike Maguire
May 5, 2022 6:31 am

Thanks for sharing physical laws and realities vs impossible, manufactured realities using anti environmental, diffuse and not dependable solar and wind power.

Paul Hurley (aka PaulH)
May 5, 2022 7:15 am

I’m sure many mouths were agape after your presentation. 😉

Gordon A. Dressler
May 5, 2022 7:43 am

Just wondering if anyone attending the public meeting happened to reference Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr.’s science-based analysis conclusion:
“. . . to achieve net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, the world would need to deploy 3 Turkey Point nuclear plants worth of carbon-free energy every two days, starting tomorrow and continuing to 2050. At the same time, a Turkey Point nuclear plant worth of fossil fuels would need to be decommissioned every day, starting tomorrow and continuing to 2050.”
— source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerpielke/2019/09/30/net-zero-carbon-dioxide-emissions-by-2050-requires-a-new-nuclear-power-plant-every-day/?sh=3e5d774d35f7 , my underlining emphasis added.

True, the State of New York is not “the world” (even if New Yorkers think it may be, hah!), but they are obligated to do their fair share toward this end. Based on just the population ratio NY-versus-world at end of 2021 (20 million/7.9 billion), the State of New York should plan on building about 37 Turkey Point-size nuclear power plants between now and beginning of 2050.

What about the contribution from future hydro, wind, solar and biomass? . . . pfftphttttp!

Beta Blocker
May 5, 2022 7:50 am

Here in the US Northwest, the engineers who work deep inside the regional utilities doing real world technical analysis know full well that wind and solar will never live up to the promises now being made by the region’s politicians and by many of the region’s senior utility executives. Or even to come close. But to say so publicly in an open forum is to risk being fired.

I tell my friends and relatives that the future of electric power in the US Northwest is for a doubling or even a tripling of the price of electricity, and for less of it to be available. The retirement of coal-fired and gas-fired generation capacity in our region will accelerate under the Biden administration’s expanded environmental rules, and new-build solar and wind won’t come anywhere near closing the gap between generation capacity and demand.

Advocates for nuclear power say that with the oncoming small modular reactor (SMR) technologies, zero-carbon dispatchable electricity will be readily available at an affordable price. The problem with that opinion is that at least two decades of hard work is needed to initially field the SMR technology and to create an SMR manufacturing and construction industrial base which can deliver larger numbers of these SMR’s on cost and on schedule.

Over the course of the next decade, as more coal plants are retired without replacement and as wind and solar begins taking an ever-larger slice of the power generation pie, the reliability of the western US power grid will begin to degrade. Portable diesel-fired and LNG-fired peaker units will be brought in to deal with a growing power generation shortfall.

As a matter of practical necessity, these ‘temporary’ fossil fueled peakers will eventually become what is effectively permanent baseload capacity. As has been seen in other nations, maintaining a business environment for industries which require cheap power to remain competitive will become increasingly difficult. 

In any case, the wind and solar juggernaut is now so deeply embedded in the region’s politics that even slowing it down is a difficult proposition, let alone stopping it altogether.

Mike Lowe
Reply to  Beta Blocker
May 5, 2022 1:31 pm

Surely we have all noticed that activist supporters of CAGW and EVs are always using the prediction of nearby future developments to bolster their arguments, despite the fact that such developments have been “under way” for decades with little chance of success? Whether it is batteries, hydrogen, or nuclear power, their arguments always rely on such things. Maybe that indicates their trust that we engineers will always come up with a solution, even if they don’t understand technical matters!

roaddog
May 5, 2022 9:16 am

Mr. Menton,
I want to thank you for publicly holding the sanity flag high. In the current political climate I consider that incredibly brave and generous.

Sadly, we’re told that 81 million people voted for misery and death in 2020. I expect no US course correction on power generation until large numbers of people, at least in the thousands, freeze to death. Even that may not be sufficient, but I fear we will inevitably find out.

Mike Lowe
Reply to  roaddog
May 5, 2022 1:33 pm

Thankfully, Germany is well on the way to demonstrating the value of fossil fuels. Next winter should do it!

Paul Penrose
May 5, 2022 10:12 am

The fact that only 1/3 of the council showed up for the public comments tells you everything you need to know: they don’t care what the public has to say. Either they are going to plow ahead regardless, or they knew from the beginning that the entire enterprise is a fools errand and are only going through the motions as they climb up the political ladder. Hopefully it’s the latter, otherwise the people of NY are in big trouble.

Bob
May 5, 2022 11:58 am

Francis Menton you are a brave brave man, I couldn’t have done what you did. I salute you. The only thing in my view that will wake these dummies up would be for every fossil fuel plant to plan for maintenance at the same time. Announce it well in advance and tell all state, county and city officials and citizens what to expect and when to expect it. These people are breathtakingly stupid, if they are so stupid, so boneheaded as to let that happen then they deserve the consequences.

dilbertwyoming
May 5, 2022 12:44 pm

It is no real surprise that NYC residents, who are so far removed from the source of their energy, food and goods manufacturing, would think net zero is feasible. They actually believe the nonsense fed to them by enviro organizations….we have the technology…..it is currently working.
IMHO, they should be forced to try it out for a week in the winter before they commit the rest of us to such stupidity.

RickWill
May 5, 2022 3:17 pm

 There were lots of pastors and others representing religious groups, a plurality of them Jewish (not surprising in Brooklyn).

It is a competition of beliefs. Climate Change is the new kid on the block and gaining massive momentum. Other religions simply want a fair slice of the pie and need to work out how they can weave the new religion into their historic belief system.

michel
May 6, 2022 12:49 am

Another excellent piece from The Contrarian. Focuses on the most important issue for policy.

Which is that it doesn’t matter for policy purposes whether there really is a climate crisis due to global warming. If there is or if there isn’t, either way, the present policies of moving power generation to wind and solar are both impractical and unaffordable.

It simply cannot be done and it will not happen. There is no way to provide enough storage to make the intermittent generation reliable enough to run the grid.

This is truly terrible amateur engineering and system design. Its defects have nothing to do with the arguments about climate, they are that the grid as they propose it will not work.

The points about China are also well taken. That is, what the alarmists are intending to do is futile. It will not reduce global emissions by an measurable or effect amount.

In addition to being impractical and unaffordable in itself!

Dave Fair
Reply to  michel
May 6, 2022 8:09 am

Additionally, if this continues much longer our progeny will speak Mandarin. The always-practical world does not wait on Western mental masturbators.

Bill Rocks
May 6, 2022 8:42 am

Francis Menton,

Very good words. Comprehensive but succinct, factual, basic quantities plus reality in the big wide world – Asia and Africa.

walt
May 6, 2022 1:17 pm

The egotists on the left think they control the entire population of the earth plus the planet’s climate. They have no concept of global .reality

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