From the Cliff Mass Weather Blog
Clifford Mass
Throughout history, weather has played a critical role in war, and thus it may be of value to review the past, present, and future weather situation in Ukraine to garner insights into the future of this terrible conflict.
Weather Conditions for Offensive and Defensive Operations
Cloudy, rainy, and low-visibility conditions generally favor defense, since offensive operations–from aircraft-based attacks, intelligence collection from aircraft or satellites, and artillery targeting–are undermined by stormy, rainy, or cloud-enshrouded situations.
February was drier and sunnier than normal over Ukraine, and was followed by a cool/cloudier period in early March. During the last week anomalous high pressure has existed to the north of Ukraine (see upper-level map yesterday, below), producing warmer and drier conditions over the country. This has been beneficial to Russia’s offensive operations.
Upper-level (500 hPa, about 18,000 ft) maps, with the colors indicating how much the situation is different than normal. Red indicates enhanced ridging (higher than normal heights/pressures), which is producing clear skies and warming over Ukraine. Ukraine is indicated by a blue star.
This situation–favorable for the Russians–will continue for another 3-5 days, but then there will be a major shift in the atmospheric structure with a deep trough of low pressure developing to the north (see forecast map for March 27). Weather conditions will deteriorate over Ukraine, aiding the Ukrainians.
The European Center forecast of the simulated cloud image for Monday (March 28th) shows extensive deep clouds over Ukraine.
Monday March 28, Satellite Simulation. Courtesy of WeatherBell LLC
Temperatures will subsequently drop below normal and precipitation will spread across Ukraine (the 72h hour total precipitation ending 31 March is shown below).
In short, the weather this week will be favorable for offensive operations (and resupply missions) but that will change over the weekend. Next week, obscuring skies and precipitation will aid defense.
“General Mud”
What about the situation on the ground? As noted in a previous blog, and numerous accounts in the media, Ukraine, eastern Russia, and the adjoining areas are well known for very muddy conditions during the spring (as snow melts into poorly drained soils) and autumn (with the return of fall rain), while the hard-frozen soils of mid-winter and dried soils of summer (with dust) are favorable for military operations.
Currently, snow has melted over most of Ukraine, except for the far eastern regions, as apparent in a visible satellite image yesterday and the European Center snow analysis (both below).
MODIS visible satellite image on Monday, March 21. Snow is evident over the far northeast side of Ukraine.
European Center Snow Analysis on Monday
To gain some perspective on the situation, the precipitation situation in Kyiv is shown below. There was no snow at the end of February (no data in March on this figure.).
Courtesy of Weatherspark
Here are the March observations at Kyiv from meteoblue. Very little March precipitation and temps were too warm for snow for much of the month.
Compare this against a more typical year (2018), where the snow extended into March.
Snowmelt is ahead of schedule because of a warm, dry February and the warm/dry conditions of the past week.
You can get an idea of where the snow has melted this year by looking at the visible satellite image on Feb. 13th (below). Lots of snowmelt then over the northern part of the country compared to the image shown earlier.
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The bottom line is that the snowmelt over the northern portion of Ukraine was early this year and started with less snow to melt. Little rain fell on the melting snow. So if “General Mud” is helping slow down offensive armor and its support vehicles, it is happening now and will not extend into late spring as in more normal years.
Russian Tanks Stuck in Mud 3 Weeks Ago
We better get more anti-armor weapons in there before the dryout comes on.
Russia is heading for a revolution, as it did after her army’s poor performance in the WWI. Tzar Nicolas was shortly afterwards replaced by a brutal dictator J.V. Stalin who built military industry that eventually succeeded in driving Nazis all the way back to Berlin.
After this military fiasco V.V. Putin is not going to last long, may even suffer tzar Nicolas’ fate.
What follows most likely is going to be far worse than Putin’s Russia of oligarchs.
Most important question here is whether the NATO is going to take advantage and incorporate Ukraine after helps it to regain lost territory.
Slavs have an ilogical attachment to their distant past.
Relationship between Russia and Ukraine is very similar to Serbia and Kosovo. Serbian then an empire lost Kosovo on June 28, 1389, which became Serbian sacred date, a national holiday, an antitheses to US’s July 4th.
Over 600 years later, in 1999 the latest Serbia’s Kosovo war was terminated by the NATO’s air rads and bombardments on many towns in both Serbia and Montenegro ( for parallels read Ukraine, Russia and Beloruss).
If it wasn’t for refusal on British general to disobey the NATO’s command orders a confirmation with Russia’s army unit in Kosovo, a WWIII would have been now long gone (remember Sarajevo 1914, again started by Serbia’s grudge over Austria taking over from Otomans, what Serbs lost 500 years earlier).
There are many other historical (including collaboration with Nazis), political and economical parallels with only difference that Serbia was not a nuclear power, although when I was at university there there was lot of research and work done on it, then Tito died, Yugoslavia fell apart as USSR did few years later and the project was abandoned.
Anyone with an ounce of wisdom should keep out of intra Slavic confrontations.
Once this current hullaballoo is over, it’ll be hard to justify denial of Ukraine’s request to join NATO. After all, what is a defensive alliance for? NATO was formed over the threat of the USSR (and, subsequently, Russia) against its neighbors.
Need more evidence?
While Putin or someone of same ilk is around, not likely. The other problem is territorial integrity is a prerequisite.
After Montenegro declared independence from Serbia in order to join NATO, it had to give claim to a small but strategically important peninsula, which was given to Croatia after WWII sort of a mini Crimea situation.
Russia might give Doneck but would start nuclear war over Crimea, but i doubt that NATO would think it’s worth it, so until Ukraine gives up on reclaiming Crimea no NATO membership for it
If Russia wants to rebuild it’s cruiser fleet then it will never give up Crimea. Apart from the navy yard in Crimea it has no yards capable of building anything bigger than a destroyer and it won’t get any foreign government to help build them. France stopped building a cruiser for Russia after the Donbass invasion and so 2 are now being built in the Zalyv shipyards.
After this, will Russia have enough money left to rebuild it’s cruiser fleet?
After this, will Germany, Hungary, China and other countries still be buying Russian gas and oil?
Germany and Hungary have no choice and China has no qualms. Even if Europe goes energy sane and can reject Russian fuel, as long as they can get it to a seaport there will be buyers somewhere.
There’s also large quantities of wheat exported , plus potash for fertiliser, enriched uranioum for nuclear power stations. Gold and precious metals along with strategic metals like titanium. Prices for all these things have climbed as the traders know what’s at stake
The USA built up a fleet of 13 aircraft carriers with no cash whatsoever and is now 30 trillion dollars in debt (actually much much more ) Russian debt is somewhere near 250 billion dollars and it has all the resources it needs to be completely independent which I believe is their aim , no !! Russian does not have a money problem . But the world will have a huge commodity problem much sooner than later !
It has loads of raw materials and expertise to sell to China and the Middle East – the richest countries in the world. .
The black market is remarkable for people/governments with valuable assets.
The nuclear powered large battle cruisers (28,000 tons) such as Peter the Great were built at the Baltic Shipyard in St Petersburg
There are also large ship yards at their other main base in Severodvinsk up in Arctic area
The 4 Kirov class battlecruisers cannot now be built by Russia. They can’t build the reactors even if they can put the hulls together – you’ll notice that of the original 4, 2 have been completely cannibalised for parts to keep the other 2 afloat and it is unlikely that Russia can keep more than 1 of them at sea at a time. The problem is that there are too many individual components that go into each ship that Russia can no longer build or supply, they would have to rebuild the entire shipbuilding supply chain from scratch in order to supply the Russian navy yards; too much expertise and manufacturing capability was lost after the rapid breakup of the Soviet Union.
We hope!
So they do have slipways in St Petersburg to build nuclear powered ships, contrary to what you claimed
Indeed the same shipyard is building up to 3 nuclear powered icebreakers currently.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_22220_icebreaker
So that capability isnt lost either.
However whether they would build such large naval ships again is debated , certainly the cruiser size ship wouldnt be a problem
https://m.economictimes.com/news/defence/russias-latest-nuclear-powered-icebreaker-to-boost-indias-arctic-plans-via-northern-sea-route/articleshow/88558084.cms
We do not need Ukraine in NATO.
You don’t want there to be a NATO, why do you care who’s in it?
I don’t want Ukraine in NATO
Putin doesn’t want Ukraine in NATO.
I could care less what Putin wants.
Funny how you always seem to want whatever Putin wants.
Who are you Simon?
Should we care?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion
“March 2015, a battalion spokesman told USA Today that around 10–20% of the unit were Nazis.[18][19] A provision in Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2018, passed by the United States Congress, blocked military aid to Azov”
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Neo-Nazism_in_Ukraine
Click on each of the ten links which were until recently separate wikipedia pages on organizations in Ukraine. Note that all these pages have been edited in the last few days. (Wiki is turning the lights out for sure
they’ll probably soon be gone ).
Are you arguing that we should allow Putin to invade neighboring countries because some of the people in that country are Nazis?
There are Nazis in this country as well, does that mean you would support Canada invading the US in order to get rid of them?
….would be fun to watch….
No Mark, but even NATO isnt anxious to let Ukraine in nor anxious to actually fight for them. The country (and wiki) are downplaying the size and legitimacy of the Nat Socialists but they have a ‘history’ and their WWII collaboration was substantial. Azov is a battalion of the regular army on the payroll.
The ‘Asgardrei’ national socialist music festival held in municipal buildings in Kyiv was a bit of an eye-opener for me.
One country’s ‘defensive’ alliance is another countries aggressive pact…
The former Warsaw Block/Eastern European countries need to create their own treaty organization. And I believe when Vlad is taken out of power there is going to be a huge scramble to control Russia and its attendant “provinces”. It is going to be ugly, their main agricultural region is currently being destroyed, no crops planted. This is going to get ugly.
East flank from various ‘….stans’ including both Iran and India will be gravitating to China until the dust settles, while in meantime happy to buy cheap Russian oil unless have own reserves as Kasakstan and Iran do.
India is opposed to China mainly because China is backing Pakistan. India will not gravitate to China under any circumstances but has been building it’s fleet to counter the Chinese fleet in the Indian Ocean.
Yes, and it could be called The Warsaw Treaty Organization.
Or how about the Warsaw Pact?
Has a familiar ring
WTO! I like it!
‘Anyone with an ounce of wisdom should keep out of intra Slavic confrontations.’
Well, that leaves out the Biden administration, the State Department and the so-called Intelligence ‘community’…
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasputitsa
Related in meaning to Rasputin and Putin.
Very much so. It does appear whoever was Ramrodding Vlad’s big invasion did not study the spring forecast.
German army in 1941 was still largely supplied by horse drawn transport. The tracked vehicles have a fraction of the power of today’s military vehicles.
Then there is the biggest change since 80 years ago. Roads .
Ukrainians have built roads and freeways like other countries, not the dirt roads of 1940s
And the Ukrainians have been downing bridges, consistently, and once all those tracked vehicles are in the mud they are very much slowed. Slow armor is easier to kill, another thing Ukrainians are consistently doing. Armor is wonderful! Right up to the point it is burning and the crew is dead. And no, I am not upset a bunch of conscripted, rapist assholes are burning to death. Karma is a bitch.
I don’t buy the good guy bad guy establishment spiel. They are both bad guys. They are both corrupt despots. The only ones that matter to me are the regular Ukranian people.
This former SF soldier that spent 8 1/2 years on A teams targeted into Europe vehemently objects to the deployment of any conventional NATO or US forces to Ukraine or any attempt to establish a “no fly zone”.
The most dangerous people in the world right now for us are those pushing to get us into a war with Russia.
rah, thank you for your service, but the most dangerous people in the world right now are the murdering Russians, led by Putin, and the Chinese, led by Xi and the CCP, who are waiting to see what their strategy should be. Although I understand your concern about WWIII, waiting to see if you or some other country is next is a failed strategy (see Neville Chamberlain appeasing the Germans leading into WWII).
Yep.
As consigliere Clemenza said in The Godfather –
“they shoulda stopped them in Munich”
I agree that Putin and Xi are the biggest threats to the world. The two countries these authoritarians lead are the biggest pushers of the AGW hoax. Look how the rest of the world is frozen in their response to what they do, Russia because they control the energy to Europe and China because they produce so many needed items to the world.
If we got back to energy independence and manufacturing, the power of both would be severely reduced.
The US does not need to be in a war with Russia. The military industrial complex is already supplying javelins 😉
If you think that then you clearly have no idea how the Industrial Military Complex makes its money.
Pay attention. Going to be pragmatic and blunt here.
The Industrial Military Complex works best in periods of uncertainty. Governments (aka – The Customer) reach conclusions they need ‘new things’ for their Troops (aka – The End User). So they talk to the Industry and say stuff like ‘We want you to design a replacement for the [insert equipment here], develop it, deliver it and then maintain it for the life of type’.
Industry says “Kerrrr CHING!” and starts hiring and the individual members that make up Industry take out a mortgage based on the security of the 20 year contract they are now part of.
It is the UNCERTAINTY of the geo-political that causes these contracts to come into being and allows them to continue to get funded. Everyone gets what they want. The Customer feels a little safer. The End User gets new kit. The Industry get to avoid working minimum wage. Okay, the Greens get their knickers in a twist… but… win/win.
When you get into situations of CERTAINTY then the system collapses. Here at the moment were certainly have Russia fighting Ukraine. The Customer stops planning for the long term and starts thinking about immediate poll numbers. They do short term things. Industry works off the long term. Through Life Support contracts are where the profits start to kick in. There is little economy of scale in developing and manufacturing so the costs are very high.
People are talking about Javelins like it is a massive cash cow for Industry. No. Those systems were already sold. The Customer owns them. Unless the Customer goes to Industry and says ‘make and sell me a million new Javelins’ and start throwing buckets of money around then Industry is getting squat.
There is also the risk that if the war escalates then Governments will bring in emergency acts for production. You will no longer make and sell. You will make and give to the nation as your patriotic duty. Anyone really think those factory workers in WW2 Russia who – according to legend – were driving tanks straight from the factory to the fighting were taking home big fat bonus pay checks each week?
The Industrial Military Complex lives in Uncertain Times. If the times are Certainly Peaceful then no one is investing in the future. If the times are Certainly Violent then the long term development and long term support contracts all get pushed aside for the here and now.
The Ethics of how the Industrial Military Complex works is still a big open discussion. How it makes profits is not. It doesn’t want you to actually go for war. It wants you to constantly prepare for it.
Start accepting this. It will help you improve both your understanding and arguments.
If Putin and China did not exist than the Western military-industrial complex would have to invent them. Or maybe they already did….
And remember, exactually the same situation exists for our opponents. They too have a military-industrial complex….
We would actually have had WW2 whatever had been decided at Munich. Chamberlain’s choices at that point were:
1 – to try to stop Hitler by force at that point. Which would have meant an aggressive war against him. He had a fully prepared war machine at that point and we had nothing.
2 – to try to gain time by negotiating, even with a bad-faith opponent. This gave Britain the time it needed to rearm, and in particular to develop its revolutionary integrated air-defence system, which turned out to be critical to its survival.
Yes.
Some say it was Versailles Treaty that led to Hitlers demands, but even if there wasnt a Sudetentland or Polish corridor the Germans still would have pushed East as it was part of his ideology
Corrupt despots are one thing.
Corrupt despots that time and again invade their neighbors are another thing altogether.
Putin will keep invading other countries until he is stopped.
Putin could have crushed Ukraine already if he wanted to. You guys should know better. Your falling for a narrative much like Climate Change.
You must have excellent sources of information. RT.com, perhaps?
So he’s deliberately losing troops and supplies and putting his very regime at risk? Can you come up with a reason why?
Most people feel that he screwed up the preparations big time. He actually seems to have believed his own propaganda that the Russian troops would be welcomed by the Ukrainian people.
Something definitely went wrong – either he screwed up the long term preparations or it was thrown together at the last minute. Either way we may never know.
He started planning it over a year ago. He is trying to accomplish his goals while at the same time minimizing Ukrainian casualties. If his goal was to take the whole country his campaign would not be only pushing around the periphery.
If Putin had intended an all out invasion it would have opened with “shock & awe”, plastering every major military C&C and going right for the throat of the government. At the same time moving with forces to try and isolate the country from outside help ASAP.
Besides oil, Ukraine is a major bread basket for Europe. And yet they have made no efforts to push into the agricultural regions in the interior.
It is an invasion with limited objectives.
You want to see Xi’s Cheshire Cat grin break into a big smile? Let NATO get into a direct war with Russia.
The Aholes in DC already tried to start one trying to use the Polish as stooges. Thank God the Poles did what they did.
Now I’m in the truck typing this on a phone and got business to take care of. Will be working all night.
More nonsense, he’s is deliberately bombing civilian targets with HE missiles … gimme a break! I was also a serving soldier in conflicts with Cuban, East German and Russian players.
If his goal was to minimize civilian casualties, why is he spending so much time shelling civilian targets?
He’s concentrating on the periphery because he invaded from the border and that’s all he’s been able to penetrate so far. It’s not for lack of desire that Putin hasn’t pushed further into Ukraine.
His goal has always been the entire Ukraine, he thought the country would roll over for him. He was wrong.
We’re arguing with Rooskie trolls. They don’t need to make any sense, they’re trolls.
Another point is that it doesn’t matter how long ago he started making plans, it appears that the plans didn’t survive first contact with the enemy. Given the number of generals and intelligence agents who have been arrested in recent days under various charges, it looks like Putin is looking for a scape goat he can blame his failures on.
Doofus, Putin committed 150 thousand fighters, a full 75% of all Russian combat ready forces world wide, to the Ukraine incursion, leaving most of Russia undefended and naked to attack. That was one month ago.
Since then Russia has lost 40 thousand of those fighters, with no replacements, and now Ukraine not only had stopped the Rooskies dead cold but are now retaking much of the ground initially ceded to Russian forces. Putin had no reserves, and he’s getting destroyed.
So much for your silly propaganda that Putin isn’t really trying!!!
SMH!!!
China has been eyeing parts of Siberia for decades, now would be a great time to take whatever parts they wanted. Russia couldn’t do anything to stop them.
Unfortunately Putin still has over 85% of his armed forces left in place – Duanes numbers have never come close to adding up – he’s an ignoramus!
Duane, once Again you are pushing those bogus numbers that simply don’t add up. Putin committed over half of the troops built up on the Ukraine border, let’s be charitable and call it about 90,000 troops. By some, if not all accounts, he has now committed the rest of the 150,000 troops to the invasion. Of those the vast majority of the ‘grunts’ – front line non-specialist troops are this years conscripts in older, 2nd rate equipment; a smaller number are professional more capable troops with better equipment. Even if this years conscripts were included in the total number of troops in the Russian military, the entire 150,000 invasion force would be under 15% of the total. So how hard is he really trying? It’s damned clear he seriously underestimated the Ukraine resistance otherwise he’d have switched the conscripts out for professional soldiers.
As to the rest of your hilarious post, Ukraine has said Russia has lost over 40,000 troops, Russia says 10,000 – the truth is likely to be somewhere in the middle. And, as of yesterday, Ukraine troops have been confirmed recapturing 2 towns in a very small area to the south west of Kyiv, whilst the Russians continue to advance from the south. It seriously hasn’t gone Putin’s way but Ukraine has a long way to go yet before they have “stopped the Rooskies dead cold.”
Ukraine’s only hope is if they can continue to bleed the invasion to the point where the Russian population can no longer allow Putin to continue.
Putin never ever had the forces to conquer Ukraine. He committed 150 thousand troops, a full 75% of all Russian combat ready forces world wide, to the Ukraine incursion, and Ukraine has kicked his ass. Gen Petraeus stated a month ago that Putin does not have the forces to even take and hold a single major city, let alone the entire nation of Ukraine.
To put those numbers in context, when the US and our Allie’s invaded and liberated the far smaller nation of Kuwait in 1991, our invasion force totaled nearly one million fighters. When the Soviet Union launched their final invasion of the City of Berlin at the end of WW Two, they used an invasion force of 2.3 million Red Army soldiers.
Wow. You really are into exaggeration. I don’t know about the Kuwait recovery but the 2nd Gulf War invasion involved only 280,000 troops.
But any army only has say 1/3 of it’s forces as full combat forces, everything else is mechanics to truck drivers to medics and food supply etc.
Look it up, nearly 1 million coalition troops on the allied side.
Putin may or may not have the numbers to take Ukraine but that rather depends on the Ukrainians. As to your numbers they are way off. The entire invasion force is under 15% of Russia’s armed forces, not the ludicrous 75% you claim – Putin couldn’t even hold the borders of Russia against a troop of boy scouts with that few forces.
One thing you do get right is that the invasion force, as it stands, has too few troops to effectively surround Kyiv and any other cities against determined resistance – it would need far more troops in depth to do that. So Putin will have to reinforce the invasion force and he will have to keep targeting civilian buildings. My advice – donate money to Ukraine refugee and humanitarian relief projects now because the worst may be yet to come, sadly.
I have a clue. It wasn’t thrown together at the last minute. The buildup along the border was being followed for weeks.
When it comes to military operations, if the planning started only shortly before the buildup started, then it was thrown together at the last minute.
I agree that the build up was being followed for weeks prior to the invasion. What we don’t know is when the PLANNING for all of this started.
Time favors the defenders. Crushing Ukraine would be as our Joint Chief once said; “you break it you own it.” It is clear that all Putin’s plans did not survive contact with the enemy.
Even if Russia’s troops get to a point where they can “declare victory”, and they are far from that at the moment, it would not subdue the country of Ukraine. That could take years, maybe even generations. The U. S. found out a lot about that in both Korea and Vietnam, to the point it’s now called “Asymmetric Warfare”. The invading army may have all the advantages of equipment, number of personnel, surprise, supply chains, whatever, as long as even one defender remains alive that, every time Russia declarers victory, the defender responds “I beg to differ” by detonating an IED, sniper attacks, equipment sabotage, or whatever, it will continue to cost Russian lives and send soldiers home in body bags, and there is only so much of that the populace will take. Putin may have already pushed too far to ensure his own political survival. We’ll just have to wait and see.
Look, those trying to say, Ukraine was corrupt, they’re not worth fighting for, I disagree, and I even grant you first that they were and are corrupt, does that give any neighboring (or even distant) country the “right” to invade? Putin is the bad guy in all this, and even if Zallensky isn’t much better, he is a patriot defending his country and I believe we all should cheer that on, and support him as much as possible. Once Russia is expelled, then we can have conversations with Zallensky and all the Ukraine government about corruption, and maybe try to show them a better way to run a country, or a railroad, or whatever. But that comes later.
This ^
Nonsense.
Putin never had the forces to “crush Ukraine”. A mere 150 thousand incompetent 1-year conscripts to conquer a free nation of 44 million freedom loving Ukrainians with an army of 1.2 million extremely motivated well trained fighters? Gimme a break, that’s insane. Only in Putin’s fevered imagination was that ever a “thing”. As General Petraeus stated a month ago, Russia does not even have the forces to take and hold a single major city in Ukraine, let alone the entire nation.
I see the Rooskie trolls are strong here .. likely many of the MAGAs who are Putin collaborators/sympathizers that are rotting out the Republican Party and has turned it into a gross caricature of the former Party of Reagan.
I was agreeing with you until you pulled that MAGA bullshit. You really need to get over your hatred of Trump and non-Democrats.
The Ukraine army is around 275,000 in total – including former militia units such as Azov. Why are your numbers always so appallingly wrong?
In the real world, you rarely get the luxury of choosing between good and evil. Most of the time you have to choose between bad and worse.
Can you really say that Stalin was that much better than Hitler?
For that matter, the French leadership were no saints either.
Not much of a difference between Hitler and Stalin but I think Stalin had more blood on his hands
Yes, when it comes to voting for our president, I’ve usually ended up holding my nose and reluctantly voting for the lesser of two evils.
Which explains why you always get a bad result.
You need to think of some other way of using your vote….
Both are respots. Who’s the other one?
Corrupt – yes. Rather a case of pot and kettle, however. (Although one can reasonably make the argument that we should weed our own garden before worrying about anyone else’s.)
Best interests of the nation – Ukraine is not (currently) a threat to the US. Russia is. Ukraine has no chance of conquering Russia. Russia does have a chance (much smaller than either the FSB or the CIA thought, but still a fact). Ukraine absolutely will not come out of this war with a stronger future. Russia may.
Still best interests of the nation – absolutely, positively, no direct engagement with Russian forces. Just as much logistic support as we possibly can, though. There is of course no guarantee that Putin won’t attack NATO forces, but there is no “safety” this side of the grave.
I think the jury is still out as to whether Ukraine will come out weaker or stronger. Despite what rah says, I think Putin misjudged both the resistance of the Ukrainians AND the capabilities of the Russian Army. There is no upside (for Putin) to drag this out- he would have finished this war in a few days, had he been able to. Now, he is facing increasing criticism within the Kremlin and there is a real chance this debacle may prove to be his end. I surely hope so. There are rumors that the current head of the FSB is waiting in the wings.
Well, there is some small hope that Hunter Biden will be charged. However, “The Big Guy” will almost certainly go untouched, as will Hillary.
““The Big Guy” will almost certainly go untouched, as will Hillary.”
Maybe not. Trump just initiated a lawsuit against Hillary Clinton over her making up the Trump/Russia collusion hoax, and the Big Guy is involved in all that.
Don’t forget Romney, that effr has been in Ukraine too.
Some here have swallowed the propaganda without thinking. Look at the protests. All the usually tactics, spread out the people in an orderly fashion to make it look bigger. Camera down low. Make 100 look like 1000.
The Ukrainians, as a majority, did not want the fighting over Dombas. They don’t side with Putin. Probably hate him now. But they wanted the fighting over the Dombass region to end even with out the threat of an invasion. This happened under Biden’s term for a good reason – and no, I’m not saying that the invasion is for a good reason or justified. Just that there is more than one grub with too much power.
I agree that the majority of the Ukraine citizens didn’t want the Donbas separation and the fighting, but the government in Kyiv have continued it against their interests. I don’t know what compromise solution could have been reached but killing Ukrainians of whichever persuasion should never have been one of the options.
Niemöller is perhaps best remembered for the quotation1:
The biggest weather influence on the goings on in Ukraine has to be fog. The fog of war is thick, and reliable information about what is happening and why it is happening is all but non-existent.
Truth is the first casualty of war.
So many are willing to jump onto this particular band wagon, thoughtlessly believing whatever the legacy media and politicians say is happening. These people have been lying to you for decades, but on this you (not you specifically rah, but the broader you) believe them? Are they right? I don’t know, but I’d need more proof to go one way or the other. Judging by the types of people supporting the Ukraine side… WEF, Gates, Soros, etc. and their abundance of actual Nazi’s (Azov Brigades), I’d probably side with the Russians on this. But it’s an incredibly complex situation with history that goes back a long way. The events unfolding are tragic for those involved, but this is not something that Putin just woke up one day and decided to do for no reason.
The people pushing this conflict are the same people who have been trying to take over the world for the last half a century or more. The same forces behind the “climate emergency” that is crippling western countries and seeking to impose authoritarian control on people. The same people behind the “COVID” “pandemic” that is crippling western countries and seeking to impose authoritarian control on people. They are not interested in the wellbeing of the Ukrainian people, their motives cannot be trusted.
Whether this is a fight between two unusually corrupt nations isn’t our concern. However, what is our concern is that Russia and other nations not feel that they can invade neighbors with impunity, and thereby become more powerful as they absorb the resources of those they conquer. As they grow in power, they will eventually become a threat to the rest of the world.
MarkW is not happy with your comments.
Your ability to read minds is as immature as your ability to read history.
BTW, I find it funny that the guy who echoes every bit of Putin’s propaganda is warning other people to watch out for propaganda.
…but there still is an awful lot of propaganda. From both sides. And from our own supposed media reporting.
There are only Good and Bad in simple action adventure movies.
This is why people ‘love’ the ‘Early 1940s Germans’ so much in story telling. Those guys in grey uniforms? EVIL. Everyone else? GOOD. Everyone understand that? Cool, on with the movie.
The world is filled with people/groups/countries you are willing to tolerate and deal with, and people/groups/countries you are not. That list is constantly in flux.
Currently we tolerate Ukraine and do not tolerate Russia. In six months that may – and probably will – utterly change.
Regardless of who we feel like tolerating and who we don’t, nations taking over neighboring countries is something that cannot be tolerated.
History may not repeat itself, but it certainly rhymes. The Taliban, that we just spent 20 years chasing around their own damn country trying to get them to act civilized, were originally armed, possibly even created, by the U. S. in response to U.S.S.R.’s 1979 invasion of Afghanistan. Now, Russia invades Ukraine and we immediately send weapons and possibly even “military advisors” to various unvetted groups within Ukraine… raise your hand if you think this turns out well…? Anybody? Anybody? Bueller? Bueller…?
Wasn’t the Taliban really – they were on the sidelines of much of the US backed Mujaheddin attacks against the Russian occupation. Most of the Mujaheddin warlords have since been taken out by the Pakistan, Saudi and China backed Taliban.
The Taliban and the other Afghan warlords existed in in that area long before either the US or Russia showing up. Read up about British experience in those hills.
The idea that the US created the Taliban is a total myth.
The Taliban took that name quite recently. The ones you are referring to are the Pashtun or Pathan people of Afghanistan who have a long and proud history of being bloody minded stubborn buggers opposed to any non-Pashtun telling them what to do (including the Afghan government). The Pashtun make up about 42% of the Afghan population and the Taliban contain mostly Pashtun but some Afghans and others in their numbers.
In every battle, time is of the essence, and Napoleon — probably out of necessity – postponed his main attack at Waterloo for approximately four hours. The reason was simple. Throughout the previous day, heavy rains had turned dirt roads into quagmires. Cavalry and artillery could not move easily in the mud. Horses would tire more quickly, and artillery shells might lose a measure of effectiveness, miring in the muck rather than exploding and showering the enemy with deadly shrapnel.
The delay would allow the ground to dry somewhat, but it also provided precious time for the Prussians to close the distance.
(Source: https://warfarehistorynetwork.com/2015/06/18/surveying-the-ground-at-the-battle-of-waterloo/ )
GO, UKRAINE!
May God “make the wheels fall off the chariots” (as He did for the Israelites escaping Pharoah’s army) of those vile invading Russian forces.
💙💛UKRAINE, FOREVER!!💛💙
I read a paper a few months back that made the claim that the reason why Napoleon delayed attacking that morning was that the night before he had had an attack of the piles, and didn’t get a wink of sleep. As a result, he overslept in the morning.
Putin’s ground war will be pointed to and laughed at for centuries hence.
He’s such a “genius”.
He might be a tactical “genius” but his poorly trained low morale conscript aren’t up to the task, hence the terrorising of civilians with missile attacks on civilian targets.
I think that he has been lied to by those that report to him. He thought that the military was more prepared than what it obviously was. There is no excuse for a convoy running out of fuel.
I thought the Russians would move in late March or early April
But then the whole adventure smacks of a cock-up. It has put the greens on the spot
If that was the plan, why start moving forces into position so early?
Clifford, thanks for this post.
Without supporting either side of this conflict, a couple of thoughts…
(1) you say “Cloudy, rainy, and low-visibility conditions generally favor defense, since offensive operations–from aircraft-based attacks, intelligence collection from aircraft or satellites, and artillery targeting–are undermined by stormy, rainy, or cloud-enshrouded situations.” Historically this is true, but from an intimate familiarity with space-based and air-based imaging/targeting, I think this is changing. At least capability for imaging and targeting through clouds and smoke (and at night) has been a huge focus of the US military over the last couple of decades such that bad weather or darkness doesn’t slow us down as much anymore. The Russians don’t have what we have yet, however, so point taken.
(2) The upcoming bad weather will certainly impact the civilian populace in multiple ways and might be worth mentioning since they are in the middle of this. Seems that many are exposed to the elements, more so than before, and food and medical supplies will be impacted. These factors might water down or impede defense efforts.
I’m not disagreeing with your post, just adding some possible considerations.
The Biden/Maidan/Slavic Spring. Eight years since the war started in Kiev. Over two years for Zelensky to end the war on Ukrainians. The operation of Wuhan-style labs doesn’t help Kiev’s credibility.
Said labs are left overs from the Soviet era, the US finance them in hopes to keep the scientist in Ukraine, why those scientist weren’t pensioned out years ago is beyond me. Of course the deep state here in the US does not give a rats behind what best for the US or the world. They are as great a threat life and liberty as Putin of the CCP.
Sure those labs were 😉
There’s this thing called ‘Proof’. If the Ukrainians had used bio-weapons, there would be proof. So where is the proof. Not even the Russians are claiming that Ukraine has used bio-weapons (not yet at least).
See, when Saddam Hussein used nerve agents, there was first photographic proof from the village he gassed and later the Iranians were able to get live samples off of the battlefield which they presented to the UN. Tucker Carlson, I mean Russia, hasn’t done any of those things.
Are these the same labs funded in Wuhan?
How’s the weather in Moscow, tovarish?
Couple of points. Well I’m no expert, it appears that Putin based the timing of his invasion on historical weather conditions (cold and frozen ground). Instead, he ran into early warmth and muddy grounds, bogging down his armor. What is depressing is that the more his army slows down the more he will attack civilian centers.
Exactly what I had been hearing prior to the invasion- I was going to post that. It was said that he was waiting for the ground to freeze… but it didn’t.
He had spent a great deal of money moving his army to the border and just letting them sit there was costing more every day. I suspect that is why he moved when he did, he didn’t have a choice, other Russian power brokers were getting restive. Unfortunately, we know little of the internal politics of the Kremlin, but it is increasingly clear to me that the motives are there.
It was 8 years to the day after the Maidan revolution. I doubt the weather was his main concern.
There’s a very good reason why throughout history the late winter/early spring season has been considered not part of “fighting season” in temperate zones, because of muddy soft roads and soils. Most military campaigns in Europe and northern Asia and northern North America waited until May for the roads to firm up before launching major campaigns.
Yet another reason why Putin’s disastrous incursion into Ukraine – it’s not really an invasion, just an incursion, given its historically small size and terrible results – was poorly planned and poorly executed, by launching it at the worst time of the year, late February, for military operations.
One week before this ‘incursion’ started, Putin declared Ukraine a country that was a Russian creation and just didn’t have a right to exist. Any military operation is then by definition an invasion, aimed pure and simple at a complete takeover and incorporation into the greater Russia of Vlad’s dreams.
But it already failed. Hence it was a very weak incursion not an invasion.
Go on Duane, stamp your little feet and have a temper tantrum when nobody believes your bullshit any more!
The initial excuse Putin gave was to support the separatists in the east. Had that been his real reason, one would have expected the invasion forces to head there to reinforce and defend them. Instead, the convoy headed for the capitol and a sea port to the west.
As Sun Tzu observed, “The essence of war is deception.”
This is a full-scale invasion if you look at the range of fronts on the map.
https://tvn24.pl/swiat/wojna-w-ukrainie-general-waldemar-skrzypczak-i-mapa-inwazji-widac-ze-na-wschodzie-rosjanie-gonia-resztkami-sil-5647403
Is there a risk that the Russians will capture all of eastern Ukraine, i.e. areas up to the Dnieper line? According to Skrzypczak, everything depends on whether the Russian army will be able to break the Ukrainian army and join forces currently attacking from the south and north. – In my opinion, the Russians do not currently have the reserves that would help develop this operation,” he said.
The Russians don’t really have the numbers to fully and effectively encircle Kyiv and the other cities they’ve gone after. It’s becoming clear that Putin thought Ukraine would weaken and fold before now – that they haven’t is a testament to their strength and Russian arrogance.
Pretty sure that the weather in the rest of Europe is the issue. No-fly zones happen when homes in the West don’t need as much heat.
Dictatorships are powered by a small minority of the population, with the majority just wanting to get on with life. This isn’t to crush the Ukrainians but the pro West minority (the ones who will fight) and instill pro Russian ones. Dragging it on kills his chances. He, or Russia, will want out before May. I’m tempted to guess on how it ends but I won’t because I hope that it pans out that way. It all ends and the majority get to go back to normal lives.
They’re fighting over coal. If ever there was a good reason to play along with CC, it’s top stop this s#@t, but it’s just an indication of how far from dead fossil fuels are.
Even if Ukraine prevails, this generation will not be able to go back to normal lives. They will have to spend what money they can raise to rebuild over the next decade. They may have to become the world’s supplier of scrap metal from disabled Russian armor.
Russia’s economy is taking a huge hit and won’t recover anytime soon either.
Russian troops are getting frostbite.
– – – – – – – – –
Russian troops rail about Putin’s ‘s***show’ war, run over colonel with tank
Soldiers — many of them young conscripts — were told by their commander Gen.-Lt. Yakov Rezantsev that the fighting would be over quickly.
https://theprovince.com/news/world/russian-troops-rail-about-putins-sshow-war-run-over-colonel-with-tank/
Rasputitsa
https://balagan.info/rasputitsa-quagmire-on-the-eastern-front
Cloudy, rainy, and low-visibility conditions generally favor defense
Glad we slipped a ‘generally’ in there. They favor defence… right up until they don’t. Those who like to keep a watch on the Rhine would know that the poor flying weather help prevent the Allies from detecting the German troop movements before and then restricted the ability to deploy air support during the December 1944 offensive.
I feel a more correct explanation is that cloudy, rainy, low vis conditions generally favors the side without the air power advantage.
General Mud on the other hand just hates everyone.
NATO lost me when it attacked Libya, which, BTW, went from being one of the more prosperous African countries e.g., It had one of Africa’s highest rates of indoor plumbing or outhouses. Now, it is a war torn failed state. Because Gadaffi trusted the Western powers.
BTW, remember what happened to Poland when they trusted the Western powers to come to its aid?
People keep saying remember the lessons of Munich. How about the lessons of 1914 and 1968. The latter was when Russia invaded the then Czechoslovakia. The Czechs didn’t fight. Things went OK. No refugee crisis. Few people killed and the country wasn’t wrecked. And, how would that have changed anything? The Hungarians fought in 1956. What did that get them? BTW, in 1914 the Czar wanted to avoid war at all costs. The democratically elected Duma demanded war to uphold Russia’s honor.
We don’t celebrate men who spare their countries the horrors of war. We celebrate leaders with the highest body counts.
Anyhow, one thing I know, I don’t have a dog in this fight.
So slavery is better than fighting.
When are you going to demand the west fights North Korea, Iran, China…..????
The world is full of slaves.
nobody invaded those countries and they aren’t democracies struggling against an aggressor superstate
So unless we solve all the world’s problems, we should ignore all the world’s problems? Just how many pathetic excuses has Putin supplied you with?
When are you going to start fighting North Korea?
Once you get a bad idea in your head, you just don’t let go.
The Czechs are not slaves as I write this. And, they never were enslaved by the Russians.
The Japanese decided not to fight to the last man, woman, and child. Smart move.
They were never slaves to the Soviets?
Perhaps you lived in a different world than the one I grew up in.
He said Russians not Soviets – your word, not his.
Who invaded Czechoslovakia in 1968, Soviets or Russians?
Not that there was much practical difference.
Ukraine is defending its territory, so it is perfectly moral to sell weapons to Ukrainians. Every country has the right to defend itself against invaders who drop bombs on hospitals, theaters, schools and kindergartens. No one invited the Russians to Mariupel, so they completely destroyed it.
Yes, there will now be an increase in cloud cover over Ukraine, but no frost.
https://pl.sat24.com/pl/hu/infraPolair
One NLAW or Javelin is worth five weathers though. 🙂
Fact is Russia is getting is arse kicked, and will lose. It has already lost in fact, it is only a matter of time.
The Ukrainians are actually pushing Russian forces back in some locations according to reports.
Attacking Ukraine was a big mistake, Vladimir.
The Ukrainians have a lot of portable anti-tank launchers, and they need Soviet-made aircraft that are still flying in neighboring countries.
These are the children of Ukraine who are now perishing under the rubble of their homes. This girl is safe in Poland with her grandmother and brother. Her parents have not left their homeland.
This website lists Russian and Ukrainian lost military vehicles etc, with verified picture evidence….
Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine – Oryx (oryxspioenkop.com)
Astonishing Russian losses… and those just the ones where firm evidence exists…
With unverified but possibly supporting evidence, Griffy: I know the procedure, thank you, I’ve used it before. The kind of people that say these are completely verified sources are the ones either with an agenda or don’t know what they’re talking about. Currently there are next to zero verifiable sources operating in Ukraine – all information is ‘best guess’ speculation where some effort has been made to support it with white or grey intelligence material.
A bit OT but thought I would mention it. Today (March 25th) is National Congressional Medal of Honor day and at Arlington, TX the new Medal of Honor Museum is being dedicated.
Here is a link for anyone that desires. Every citation here. Searchable by name, alphabetical list, War or Conflict, etc.
Congressional Medal of Honor Society | Official Website (cmohs.org)
When you look through understand that some from the Civil War were later recinded. If you look through the Civil War awards you will find that a large proportion were awarded for taking the enemies colors during battle.
See if you can find the citation for a female from the civil war era. That was one that was taken away and then later restored.
Navy Corpsmen on Iwo Jima received more CMOH than the Marines they were there to take care of.
Though Special Forces never had enough troops in Vietnam to even reach the number of men constituting a typical Brigade, they received more CMOH in Vietnam than any Army or Marine Division that served there.
I drank a beer with Roy Benavidez at the NCO club on Ft. Sam Houston.
Jon Cavaiani was stationed at Ft. Devens while I was stationed there and I saw and talked to him several times. My last Team SGT was “Corky” Shelton. Corky was with Cavaiani that night on that hill and received the DSC (second highest award for Valor) for his conduct during that action.
Col Ola Mize got his in Korea and was the Officer in Charge of running the Special Forces Qualification Course when I went through. Word was he killed the last 8 enemy with an E-tool. Only listened to him when he spoke to us SF wannabes as a group, and I am quite happy that was the case because the only way an SF trainee was going to have a one on one with him was if he was being washed out and wanted to beg for a second chance.
Legends all!
There are many times more that did acts that warranted that medal than those that have received it. Those that have survived to receive the medal recognize that fact and understand they are the living representatives of all those men. And in the final analysis, that is what that medal is really about.