Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Any hope for an outbreak of energy policy sanity amongst EU leaders is rapidly fading, as they unveil their innumerate plan to replace dependence on Russian imports.
Climate change: EU unveils plan to end reliance on Russian gas
By Matt McGrath
Environment correspondent…
But moving with a speed few thought possible, the EU has now laid out a strategy that could cut reliance on this fuel source by two thirds within a year.
The REPowerEU plan aims to make Europe independent of Russian fossil fuels by 2030, but the initial efforts focus solely on gas.
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Discussions are ongoing with existing gas suppliers including Norway, Algeria and Azerbaijan to boost flows.
The plan envisages ending reliance on all Russian fossil fuels “well before” 2030.
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The EU also proposes a massive ramping up of renewables, biogas and hydrogen.
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But with Germany announcing plans for two new LNG terminals to increase supplies, some experts are worried that this could increase longer term dependency on fossil fuels.
“I think we’re living in a tricky time, that there’s so much political pressure to make these energy policy decisions,” said Prof Paula Kivimaa from the Finnish Environment Institute and the University of Sussex.
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Any switch to coal would also rapidly boost carbon emissions, a trend that’s already well underway.
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The Commission document also says that renewable energy projects must be fast tracked and says there is huge potential in domestic rooftop solar power.
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Read more: https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-60664799
Rooftop solar? in Europe? Northern Europe especially barely sees the sun in winter, when they need extra energy for heating, and even in Summer the sun is fairly low in the sky.
This EU energy plan makes so little sense, it reinforces my opinion that the real agenda is to hope Russia conquers and crushes Ukrainian partisans, so Europe can go back to business as usual, buying energy from Russia.
Germany in my opinion has been particularly obvious, first by blocking NATO heavy weapons from reaching the Ukraine in the leadup to the war, then by making a further mockery of support, offering “support” in the form of dysfunctional Soviet relic weapons which have been in storage since the fall of East Germany.
President Biden just vetoed Poland supplying fighter jets to the Ukraine.
It all kind of paints a picture, doesn’t it?
Neville Chamberlain did not have himself as a bad example.
Tom, we have bad examples on every street corner.
“Rooftop solar? in Europe? Northern Europe especially…”
Let’s do a midwinter experiment in Finland. Take your roof off. Stretch a plastic sheet over it. Take readings of your home thermostat every hour. Given the efficiency of solar conversion of panels at about 10% and that they cover only half your roof, the comfort you enjoyed with the sheet is about 20 times greater than what you’d have with solar panels.
Rooftop solar is the most expensive variety of solar installs with the lowest economies of scale, the highest subsidy requirements, and the most lobbyist support from inefficient small players and startups spinning local content pledges. Of course they would choose that direction with policy.
Given the high percentage of people in Europe who live in multi-family high-rise apartment blocks, the utility of PVs for providing enough energy for normal living is even further diminished than what is achievable due to the high latitudes (few hours of sunlight at low angles) and cloudy winter weather. Single-family homes on the ground can have enough roof and land area to deploy PV panels that might be enough. A single roof of an apartment block of perhaps 10s-100s of families would be hopeless.
You can get solar installation for German apartment blocks.
Griff, what would be the point? Solar power in northern Europe is a joke. Solar power in Scotland in winter has just 1% capacity utilisation.
http://euanmearns.com/solar-pv-potential-in-scotland/
You can’t always get what you want.
But sometimes, you get what you need.
In griff’s case that would be electroshock therapy.
No one said you couldn’t get such installations. The point is that doing so is pointless.
that’s great mate, now they don’t need Russian gas.
In Australia best performance from rooftop solar panels are on clear and cooler days between the hours of 10.00 am and 2.00 pm.
speaking of Australia:
Eraring Power Station is a coal-fired power station consisting of four 720 MW Toshiba steam driven turbo-alternators for a combined capacity of 2,880 MW.
I read somewhere that it’s being replaced with a “virtue power plant”, a battery pack with 9,200 MWH of storage, even less than the typical four (4) hours of storage (when at least 100 hours are required). But not to worry, they explain, we’ll use all the EV batteries for backup. Huh? Use the demand for the supply? Good luck with that.
I thought that Germany was the craziest energy country, but Australia, it seems, is now in first place.
At least your battery is specified in the right kind of units although not how much the maximum demand can handle.
In the UK we have households and MW neither of which help.
I blame the pandemic. All that forced isolation limited people to talking mostly to themselves, managing to acquire the perception they were brilliant in the process due to lack of critical feedback.
Add to that planned closure Liddell Power Station in the NSW Hunter Valley, 4 generator units of 500 MW nameplate capacity each, an aluminium smelter not far away relies on the electricity supply and reliability of supply which will apparently be replaced by a large battery system.
The State Governments are responsible for providing electricity in the Commonwealth of Australia, Federation of States, and they are responsible for planning approval and processing applications for whatever the energy source might be including solar and wind installations.
The Federal Government has proposed five gas fired generators for Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland plus one coal fired HELE Power Station for North Queensland. To date just one gas fired generator has been given development application approval.
Another example of United Nations unelected officials influence based on Australia signing many treaties and agreements with the UN, such as Agenda 21 – Sustainability signed by the Federal Keating Labor Government around 1990, so environmental roadblocks and related court appeals against any approved development mainly by Greens groups makes planning of everything including new mines a mammoth task for the private sector, and a huge cost.
Unfortunately too few Australians today are aware of the UN influence, another example raising the main Sydney NSW water supply Warragamba Dam wall has been held up for many years. The new Western Sydney Badgerys Creek International Airport apparently needs UN approval for flight paths to ensure (UN) minimal environmental damage from aircraft flying over UN registered (Agenda 21) National Parks land.
President Donald Trump addressed the UN in New York and warned delegates that downsizing back to the original UN Charter was essential, and that he had been in discussion with UN senior officials about this. He also said that the UN must stop interferring in the internal affairs of member nations.
a lot of really dumb Aussies out there. Going by the Greens primary vote as a % of the total vote in the 2019 Federal election, 10.4% of Aussie are really dumb.
“President Biden just vetoed Poland supplying fighter jets to the Ukraine.“
That stupid Blinkin almost got the US into a war saying Poland was sending planes to Poland. The entire administration is a sh1tshow.
They were MIG jets Poland was offering, not American. What Biden refused was to allow Poland to order replacements. If I was Polish, I’d be wondering right now if Russia attacks, whether the aid from NATO would come in the form of expired East German missiles.
Joe has a kielbasa for them.
I hate being right on that but I noted a couple of days ago that some countries seem to view this as an opportunity to get rid of old munitions – that was after one country sent old M72 LAW’s to Ukraine and before finding out Germany had sent the equally old SA7’s.
He’s blinken crazy.
Morawiecki realised that supplying MiG-29s to Ukraine would put Poland directly in danger. He therefore proposed that he supply them to the USAF, delivery to Ramstein air base. The idiots at the State Dept (Nuland, Blinken etc) were seriously considering this, fortunately wiser heads at the Pentagon realised this would be an act of war and politely declined the offer. The failure (or inability) to supply replacements was a face saving ruse.
But Kamala Harris is in Poland now to sort it out … what could possibly go wrong 🙂
LdB
Cackle, cackle. Bottom line is no democrat is going to send US troops into combat for any country, irrespective of NATO “agreements”. If Putin was shipping troops to New York Harbor, on a “peace keeping mission”, the democrats would meet them at the port and offer free consoling to help them manage their aggressive tendencies and remind them of the stringent gun control measures in effect in New York. /sarc
I was thinking she is so stupid she could probably start a nuclear war with her diplomatic skills … bit like her trip to Guatemala and Mexico.
Nobody takes Kamala seriously, including our enemies. Especially our enemies. They don’t take her boss seriously either, and for good reason.
The United States is being led by a bunch of fools.
I just watched Kamala give a speech over in Poland. It was torture to watch.
Not true.
A democrat would send troops to war in ANY country if they thought it might help them win the next election.
I heard somewhere that Kamala’s bussing story is false. She was from a middle class suburb on a bus to get to a school but it was not related to the integration of the descendents of the African slaves except that she may have been moved from her middle-class school to another middle-class school to to make room for the integration students. She is not a descendent of the African slaves but sort of presents as if she were. Apparently, she is not the first to do this.
Thank God we didn’t go to war over Czechoslovakia.
I fail to understand why supposedly intelligent people cannot understand the simple concept of EROEI.
Solar PV (including storage) in N Europe is a net energy sink.
Wind and solar are free and will never run out, ask any liberal for details.
And getting cheaper of course.
/sarc.
Indeed yes: UK solar farms are now subsidy free
Griff: you are a card.
Fixed.
So what’s the current price for that energy? Did that drop also?
And new instalations halved for two years in a row after the subsidies were removed. You left that part out griff.
Since The Australian Federal Government announced the end date for renewable energy subsidies, 2030 I recall, applications for new installations have apparently declined here.
Except that they aren’t – UK govt reinstated and increased subsidies for solar installations and are offering an historic high level of renewable subsidies of over £265Bn. They tried cutting solar subsidies and, when the market inevitably collapsed, were forced to reintroduce them to make the installations financially viable and bowing to huge pressure from environmental groups. Renewables are not financially viable without massive subsidies, full stop.
From my cost-benefit analysis of rooftop solar, ignoring a storage battery as that cannot break even before replacement is needed, all considered including financing (regardless of borrowing or paying cash there is a cost or loss) and replacement around 20 years and considering the loss of performance in the latter years, rooftop solar is not worth the expense, unless there is no other choice living away from an affordable electricity grid connection.
They have never done any economic evaluation so the incremental economics always looks good
EROEI would only be relevant if the solar panels and associated equipment were manufactured in Europe. They will not be. They will be made in China using energy from coal and Russian gas.
Export sales potential is behind China’s not large renewable energy installations, showcasing the products while China continues to construct many new HELE coal fired power stations and other reliable generators including nuclear.
It’s a very humorous plan except if you live in the EU countries. You know the saying from the pan into the fire.
Where has Griff been to explain his great plan that gives EU energy security 🙂
I’m touched you think I write the energy plan for the whole continent.
Take a good look: all of Europe is doubling down on faster roll out of renewables – every windfarm means less gas burned on electricity generation.
griff:
I ask again (for the fourth time):
I look forward to your response.
Poor griff. believes the propaganda, doesn’t look at the data
Doesn’t do reading comprehension either.
But does read and comprehend the weekly troll tactics sheet
Of course they are griff.
The leftists are beginning to think they may be losing control of the governments and MUST get as much graft from the government treasury as possible through green crony capitalism before that happens.
Follow the money griff.
European countries are asking for a faster and bigger rollout of renewables across Europe but at a lower price than ever before. Renewable industry figures are complaining that no-one is able to make any money now and the companies willing to pick up the contracts are dwindling.
So why has German gas consumption been rising?
Gas storage? Is it in one of the links? I scrolled back and forth thru the post and am not seeing it.
1st link. Filling existing storage to 90% capacity.
Thx LdB.
The notion of a future where all energy needs of the entire world population, even at the standard of living currently enjoyed in the developed countries, can be supplied totally by wind and solar is demented.
“even at the standard of living currently enjoyed in the developed countries, can be supplied totally by wind and solar”:
there’s your problem
That of course depends entirely on how big the whole world population is…
It could be that people today are simply too stupid to maintain civilisation.
I’m surprised they didn’t call for rooftop hydroelectric. In a deluge of biblical proportions, that could generate half of your electricity needs for that moment.
There ya’ go, we’re half-way there already.
These guys have to put up detailed options with dollars – big arm waving statements without dollars should be dismissed out of hand. They have never provided enough info to assess the economics and they never will because it is as obvious as dog’s ba11s that none of their grand plans are economic. Everyone should demand a full project economic evaluation. And Europe wants to rely on renewables when the guy next door is attacking their mutual neighbor using fossil fuels. Is Europe really that stupid?
Never mind whether they are economic. They are infeasible.
US has become a laughing stock across the world all it does is talk.
Pretty soon people will get fed up with talk and demand action . . .
But they must realise that if they want nuclear war with Russia it’s easy !
Just press the buttons it’s that easy to destroy them ;
But be prepared to kiss goodbye to everything you know and love.
For you’ll have nuclear bombs raining down on every major US city.
It will be like 9/11 only many, many many times worse.
Please don’t do it . . .
“US has become a laughing stock across the world all it does is talk.”
You mean Biden and the Democrats, don’t you? We want to give credit where credit is due. And we want to be specific.
OK so I was a bit harsh as I realized after I said it. No offence intended.
Lets hope that war doesn’t happen.
No offense taken.
“But be prepared to kiss goodbye to everything you know and love.
For you’ll have nuclear bombs raining down on every major US city.
It will be like 9/11 only many, many many times worse.
Please don’t do it . . .”
Tell it to Putin. He and Russia will be in the same boat.
But I agree . . .
I think the US should withdraw from NATO and ALL troops from Europe. Create a new mutual defense treaty with those few countries willing to defend themselves.
Let Russia have the rest if it wants, you know, France, Germany, etc. They are essentially statist and authoritarian already by leftist democratic vote. Russia taking them over would just let them progress to non-democratic dictatorial control which they are headed to more rapidly.
What does the US get from Europe that it NEEDS anyway, bird chopper machinery, don’t need it!
There is only one outcome of the fight between the overwhelming military might of NATO and Putin’s forces. The winner is NOBODY.
Well, if it stays a conventional war, NATO will kick Putin’s ass.
So what’s the alternative? Pre-emptive surrender to Putin?
Solar delivers some power even in winter – but it is of course wind sourced from across Europe that will supply most power across Europe in winter.
Every new windfarm means less gas burned for generation.
Solar doesn’t produce anything if it is covered in ice Griff. And wind farms don’t produce anything when there is no wind, like last September.
As for saving gas, I doubt it – ramping power production violently up and down to match shifting winds is less efficient than keeping power steady.
Whatever happens, the cost for ordinary Europeans will be hideous – they will have to pay for the existing power infrastructure, compensation to operators for having to go offline when the wind is blowing, and pay for the accelerated rollout of the new system.
It could have all been so easier, Europe has plenty of frackable gas, just like everywhere else.
Europe’s largest energy source is oil, followed by natural gas, with renewables a distant 3rd place.
“Every new windfarm means less gas burned for generation.”
Yes, and every windfarm produces NO electricity when the wind doesn’t blow. What do you do then, Griff? I don’t think you have thought this through. Although, you are not alone, I don’t think European politicians have thought this through, either.
This is called doubling down on stupid.
Every new windfarm means more gas burned for generation.
There, fixed that for you griff.
You do realize that Europe is small enough that a single blocking high can cover the entire continent. So you have solar putting out a few percent for weeks at a time, while wind is putting out nothing. After a few days the batteries are drained.
What do you do next? Start burning old people for fuel?
“Start burning old people for fuel”
Solves 2 problems:
Reduces the excess medical costs to government health care systems caused by old folks.
Provides places to put all the illegal immigrants since their houses would now be available.
Plus, old people are a better source of gas.
You’re going to need a lot more of it for the latest refugee surge. It will all be late and inadequate every step of the way and divert resources.
” Rooftop solar? in Europe? Northern Europe especially barely sees the sun in winter, when they need extra energy for heating, and even in Summer the sun is fairly low in the sky. ”
Don’t worry! In those places the catastrophist activists will form militias to go to wind parks and blow their lungs out to make the windmills turn.
Its a fair point, if they site the wind turbines in Brussels they might produce some serious energy.
They forgot to include unicorn farts
From the article: “Any switch to coal would also rapidly boost carbon emissions, a trend that’s already well underway.”
Yes, a switch to coal would boost CO2 emissions and many nations are switching to coal right now. So many, in fact, that any reductions of CO2 in Europe will be swamped by the increases in CO2 from other nations.
The game is over. CO2 levels are *not* going to be reduced to levels alarmist want. It’s not going to happen. To keep thinking this will happen is delusional.
So what are the European alarmists going to do now? Double down on stupid? That would be my guess.
There’s Trump Derangement Syndrom (TDS) and now there’s CO2 Derangement Syndrom (CO2DS). The Europeans and the Biden administration have serious cases of CO2DS.
Substituting gas by coal is obvious for those countries that can do it. After Fukushima the UK did do it. But then they closed most of the capacity.
Rooftop solar is just the thing for Finland.
“President Biden just vetoed Poland supplying fighter jets to the Ukraine.”
Yeah no … that’s not actually what happened. Poland offered to deliver their airplanes to the US at a base in Germany, and let Biden be the one to give them to Ukraine in order to escalate this war. Biden declined that plan. The Poles aren’t stupid. Your statement is 100% incorrect.
Yes, Poland is not stupid, so would let the US deliver the planes to Ukraine.
The US, run by leftists did not want to be directly responsible so Biden through his Pentagon VETOED the transfer. This would still be Poland providing the jets through an intermediary, but still Poland providing the jets.
The statement is 100% correct
Who didn’t the Russians buy?
Tuvalu, and they’re a mite put out at being overlooked.
Not quite. US had been “hinting” that NATO members could supply weapons to Ukraine and that had a “total green light” from Secretary of State Blinken. A story appeared claiming that Poland “would” be supplying Mig-29s to Ukraine, which Poland promptly denied.
Whatever you think of the Russian invasion, any country directly supplying weapons or other war material to either side becomes a willing co-belligerent, and thus subject to attack. Poland knows this and one hopes Blinken does also. It’s quite beyond understanding that he would be putting Poland at risk while he is safely 2,000 miles away, but the Brandon administration is so lacking in either common sense or scruples that I don’t doubt it.
Anyway, Poland evaded becoming directly involved while still appearing to satisfy US pressure by sending the planes to Germany and stating the US could have them. Effectively “tag; you’re it” back at the US. Blinken blinked and dropped the ball; he was OK with Poland becoming a co-belligerent and target but not the US.
Where are the “adults” we were told would be in charge?
I’m not trying to be funny Alan, but WW2 didn’t exactly teach us the way to deal with megalomaniacs is to ignore when they invade the country next door, because that way they won’t want to attack you right? Especially if your country used to be part of their country?
What WW2 teaches me is there were literally years of opportunities for Britain and France to head off Germany before it got to the “invade your neighbor” stage and they bungled every one of them. See On Borrowed Time by Leonard Mosley; you won’t believe how stupid and mendacious the so-called “adults in the room” were.
What recent history teaches me is the Clinton Crime Family ran the US State Department as their personal piggy-bank selling out US interest to any despot or scoundrel who would pay them enough. And a lot of the Clinton Crime Family associates are still in positions of considerable influence today.
What more recent history teaches me is the Biden Crime Family has been neck deep in Ukraine corruption for years, helping themselves and doing God only knows what damage to US interests and the average Ukrainian in the process.
I am certain there were plenty of opportunities to deal with Russia-Ukraine tensions, but the US morons at the top were too busy stuffing their own pockets and the professional morons in the bureaucracy were too busy puffing up their resumes to pay attention.
And now the Brandon administration has sent ace trouble-shooter Kamala Harris to Poland to run the US response. Everything will be just fine. In fact the Brandon administration loves this invasion and wants it to keep going. iI provides an excuse for their own failed domestic policies to date and gives them an excuse to demand even dumber policies.
If these geniuses think the NATO alliance should directly intervene or threaten to intervene they should make the case themselves, not try to get the countries likely to suffer the most to tiptoe into a confrontation through the back door.
Yet more proof we are ruled by morons who shouldn’t be allowed to play with matches, let alone nuclear weapons.
“there is huge potential in domestic rooftop solar power.”.
There sure is: https://www.ahdictionary.com/word/search.html?q=grift
That’s fake news. What happened was Biden’s flunky said that Poland was going to provide planes to Ukraine and the US would replace them with F16’s.
Poland knows as well as anyone that Russia would see this as an act of aggression and would therefore be inclined to view Poland as an enemy and may very well attack it. NATO would then be required by treaty to defend Poland and would be dragged into the war.
That’s exactly what Biden wanted…a plausible excuse to get into the war that he could blame on someone else. “We had to go to war with Russia because of NATO, but it’s Poland’s fault for goading Russia into attacking it.”
Biden really, really wants a war that he can blame all the results of his terrible policies on, and possibly as an excuse to continue to take “emergency” actions like federalizing the elections.
So, what happened was that Poland saw through the ruse and put it right back on Biden. They said that under no circumstances would they unilaterally give warplanes to Ukraine, but that if the US wanted to do so, they’d be happy to trade their Russian made planes to the US in exchange for F16’s and then the US can give the Russian made planes to Ukraine.
Except that undermines the entire point of Poland giving the planes to Ukraine…if the planes come directly from the US and then Russia attacks and NATO is brought into the war, it’s not Poland’s fault, it’s Biden’s. Crap.
Can’t have that. Never Mind.
“That’s exactly what Biden wanted…a plausible excuse to get into the war that he could blame on someone else. “We had to go to war with Russia because of NATO, but it’s Poland’s fault for goading Russia into attacking it.
Biden really, really wants a war that he can blame all the results of his terrible policies on, and possibly as an excuse to continue to take “emergency” actions like federalizing the elections.”
I think you are completely misreading Biden. Biden is an appeaser of dictators. If you look at it like that, then you understand Biden’s action or rather lack of action with regard to Ukraine.
Biden wants no part of war. Putin knows this. This is why Putin is pushing his envelope right now.
Gas storage is not gas supply; it merely buffers between a fixed supply and a variable demand.
Rooftop solar turns the homeowner into an amateur part-time power engineer, a role for which most are not suited by either training or inclination. At best it can reduce demand on the central grid, but Northern Europe is not even close to the “at best” situation.
What would we think of proposals to have homeowners dig their own wells and install small filtration plants with pumps to send “excess” water to the public mains?
The “small is beautiful” theory of distributed production can be applied to pretty much anything and it’s always a case of working against the economies of scale.
In theory you can set up several thousand small producers faster and at lower cost than a single large facility. The problem is the much greater complexity in the large facility is all there for a reason — it contributes to both higher volume and higher quality.
There are still individual craft weavers and paper makers for example, but they supply a very limited and particular market. Try running your home printer on craft paper from different suppliers and see what happens; they simply can’t supply a consistent product at volume.
As part of the “Great Leap Forward” Mao had the idea of having farmers operate small steel furnaces rather than build proper industrial plants. The time farmers spent being bad steelmakers took away from being productive farmers, with obvious results.
In the right location, rooftop solar with a homeowner who is competent to keep it functioning might save that homeowner enough to justify the bother and expense. But it’s not good enough for the rest of us to rely on.
They supposed “leadership” still have Putin’s hand up their backsides making them say all the right tings to further his agenda. Voters who can think critically would throw this whole lot off the boat.
“griff” isn’t a real person, is he?
I have always assumed that “he” is WUWT’s resident performance art, like a local version of @TitaniaMcGrath. Right?
No, Griff voluntarily provides his or her services :-).
I don’t mind Griff commenting, keeps us sharp.
That’s a difference between us and the majority of them, we enjoy a good debate. The only time I’ve ever seen the big stick used on this site is trolls crossing the line with incitement to violence, spammers, or people who keep ranting long, off topic comments who refuse to listen to repeated warnings.
The EU which is another name for Germany are not serious about giving up Russian gas and oil supply. Angela Merkel did more to stop German domestic energy provision than any chancellor before her. All done to assist her predecessor Gerhard Schroeder and his Russian energy employers. Merkel was an east German trained in the USSR spoke fluent Russian and had all but destroyed German energy independence by the time she left office after 15 years. The main beneficiary of her anti energy policy was Russia and Putin in particular.
Draw your own conclusions.
I’ve often quoted the old saw “People don’t plan to fail, they fail to plan”, but in this case they are literally planning to fail. It’s like rounding up all your experienced, productive farmers and sending them to prison camps. Nobody would do that, except Stalin of course, and in Ukraine no less. And we all know how that turned out. This European energy plan has the same chances of success. Not that the US is in a much better position with dementia Joe at the helm.
A left wing UK Labour politician was spreading this junk today…. about rooftop solar panels being the saviour for Europe. No one on the PC, climate hysterical panel sought to challenge her as to how during the October – March period, in the Northern Hemisphere, it’s dark for, on average, fourteen hours in any 24 hour period. For the other ten hours the sun can maybe provide energy for, at most, three hours in any 24 hour period. This is the Greta in the room.
Must be related to a blog post author I read a few years ago, people were arguing about EV and she posted that when she buys an EV she will recharge it overnight using rooftop solar.
lol
“Germany in my opinion has been particularly obvious” Oh really?
“From its own stockpile, the German government will send 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger anti-aircraft defense systems to Ukraine” This isnt Soviet era junk, this is state of the art.
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-russia-germany-still-blocking-arms-supplies/
You need to keep up with the news.