Guest essay by Eric Worrall
According to The Hill contributor Stuart Mackintosh, “The climate change problem is so large and so all-consuming we can fail to get our collective hands and minds around it.”.
Climate change is no longer a probability — it’s time to face reality
BY STUART MACKINTOSH, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR — 02/12/22 09:01 AM EST 2,389
THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY CONTRIBUTORS ARE THEIR OWN AND NOT THE VIEW OF THE HILL…
The climate change problem is so large and so all-consuming we can fail to get our collective hands and minds around it. The timescale is so long we fail to plan properly. Too often we look backward for lessons when the probability of severe weather events such as fires in California, Siberia, Australia, or hurricanes and typhoons are increasing in severity and number rather than remaining the same year-to-year. We look at past averages for solace even though this gives us the wrong probability for severe climate-related events. Perhaps most worryingly of all, we fail almost completely to account for epoch-shifting tipping points.
The late economist Martin Weitzman calculated the was a non-zero probability that failure to address climate change would end our civilization. This dangerous outcome would be brought closer through interlinked tipping points such as the end of summer Arctic Ice, melting of the world’s Alpine glaciers, the slowing and halting of the Gulf Stream, the loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet, the dieback of the Amazon rainforest, or the collapse of the West Antarctic ‘Doomsday’ glacier. The tipping points are many and terrifying, and all are being pulled closer by our failures to understand the risks. I argue in “Climate Crisis Economics” we must factor in these horrific tipping points so we properly account for the risks before
Weitzman in “Climate Shock” also estimated the chance of the global temperature rising by a staggering 6 degrees Celsius at a whopping 10 percent. Yet because of our inability to understand probabilities and what economist Mark Carney calls the tragedy of our horizons too many of us underestimate the climate change dangers, to our peril. Yet if I put it this way — if you knew that there was a 10 percent chance of you or your children being killed walking down a street in your neighborhood you would act. You would demand action, more policing, better streetlights, more expenditures to ensure such an event did not occur; or you would move, refusing to countenance such risks to your family. What we all need to do is adjust our estimates of risks probability and keep doing so.
…
Read more: https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/593870-climate-change-is-no-longer-a-probability-its-time-to-face-reality
The world is not going to heat up 6C in the next century, but even if it did, civilisation would endure.
The idea humans couldn’t adapt to warmer conditions is absurd. Cities would need better drainage systems if rainfall increased, you can almost walk down the street drains in my hometown. People would want better air conditioning in Summer. The asphalt on roads would need to be upgraded. But none of these problems are insurmountable.
Food supply would not even blip. Farmers would need to do is copy agricultural practices from warmer regions. Most food crops are tolerant of a very broad range of growing conditions. Potato varieties developed in Maine, USA are a major crop in subtropical Bundaberg, Queensland.
When the British colonised Australia, farmers were, within a few months, transported directly from a place with a 56F average high temperature to a place with a 73F average high temperature – like experiencing an instant 17F (9C) global warming. After a few false starts, like planting grain in fall (the people in charge didn’t know the seasons are flipped in the Southern Hemisphere), they did just fine, using crops and food animals they had mostly brought from Britain.
6C over 100 years would not be a problem.
What about superstorms wiping out crops? My response to that – the age of the dinosaurs, a far warmer world than today, supported an ecosystem with giant animals at the top of the chain. Does that sound like an ecosystem clinging to viability, or was it a vibrant tropical riot bursting with plant growth and productivity?
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It really is worse than he says.
It is so big that no matter how hard i look i cannot find the crisis.
Even with WE help.
Its like i’m a 2 dimensional creature trying to see something in 11 dimensions.
Say you are living in 1922 and are tasked with planning for 2022.
What would do?
What Happened In 1922 – Historical Events 1922 (eventshistory.com)
I’ll give him this, he’s possibly managed to pen the most data-free article in the history of Climate Nutters.
If I could muster the enthusiasm, I would celebrate every day the fact the global average temperature has increased by almost 1 deg C since the “end” of the little ice age.
If it had not done that we would still be experiencing the “little ice age”.
What is wrong with climate change doom-mongers? They moan when things have improved almost beyond measure and demand a return to the past conditions of famine and cold from extended cold periods of winter.
They need to remember a simple truth.
Global warming is good, global cooling is bad. Ask any Canadian, well, almost any Canadian…..
How much did the CCP have to pay for that nonsense??
There is no point logically explaing that this prediction is absurd.
It is not made as a result of careful calculation. It is propaganda designed to frighten people into accepting activist plans.
75F-85F today here on Subic Bay. People making babies like crazy, plants growing in leaps, the monkeys are fat. No climate problem here. Would that more of the world could share in this bounty!
Stuart P.M. Mackintosh is executive director of G30, a cabal of very senior bankers including the likes of Mark Carney, Mario Draghi, Mervyn King and Yi Gang from the People’s bank of China.
Since when have these top tier globalists become concerned eco-warriors?
If you smell a rat, it’s probably because there is a rat and it smells.
Cities would need better drainage systems if rainfall increased,
Rainfall has already increased in the UK and the street drainage isn’t coping.
Flash floods: Parts of London receive a month of rain in one day – BBC News
Who is going to pay for the new drains? and the disruption replacing all of them will cause?
Surely you meant to say, “disruption for the cause” comrade.
If you check the records, London has experienced flooding on a regular basis – after some severe floods the flood management systems were improved, then improved again and again. Each time requiring money and causing disruption during the work – either live with the problem or allocate resources to deal with it. London floods include the years 1742, 1764, 1768, 1774 (very severe), 1819, 1821, 1841, 1852 (very severe), 1869, 1873, 1875 (very severe), 1877, 1891, 1894 (very severe), 1899, 1912, 1915, 1926, 1929, 1936 and 1947. From 1947 to 2003 there were no significant floods occurring, mostly due to effective flood management and increased drainage. I should point out that all of the floods I’ve mentioned here were associated with extreme rainfall – which goes to show that the idea of ‘extreme weather events’ is not new and has been going on since way before records began. Rainfall has not increased, nor have these events become more common – in fact, looking at the records, these events were far more common in the past than they are now.
Read more, write less.
https://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1968/0554/report.pdf
Hydrology for Urban land Planning – A Guidebook on the Hydrologic
Effects of Urban land Use GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CIRCULAR 554
By Luna B. leopold, 1968
… the street drainage isn’t coping.
I imagine that as the population has increased, the area of impervious cover (streets & roofs) has also increased. Therefore, even with the same rainfall, one could expect problems with the runoff.
I live in London. The drainage is rubbish because the storm drains aren’t cleared properly. That is the fault of the lefty Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan.
Stuart Mackintosh went full retard. Climate Hysteria does that, but it’s self-induced. The ultimate goal is to gin up the fear factor, based on 100% lies in order to spread fear as much as possible. Sometimes it seems like the Climate Caterwaulers are trying to outdo one another as to who can climate caterwaul the most and the loudest. Chicken Little was a piker compared to these people.
The alarmists should try breathing into a paper bag for a few minutes and then rest in a darkened room until the tremors stop. Then they can rejoin the rest of us and go about normal life.
If only CO2 levels were higher, they wouldn’t need the paper bag.
At least they got that right.
“a non-zero probability that failure to address climate change would end our civilization”
There is a non-zero probability that I will fall through the seat of my chair because all the molecules of my body happen to slip between the molecules of the wood. An infitesimally small probability, but non-zero. I should definitely take action about it.
This is all a runup to the “climate report” by the chief climate caterwaulers and cuckoo crackpots of the IPCC’s WGII later this month. In case anyone’s wondering, the source of Climate Hysteria is the IPCC. They not only produce Climate Hysteria, but they put an official, “scientific” stamp on it, which makes it all OK. Then, anyone who speaks out against it is simply an “anti-science Denier”. This is what makes the Climate Lies so incredibly difficult to refute. That, and the fact that none of it is rational.
I know weather isn’t climate, but it is a crisp -23C morning here in Ottawa. An increase of 6C today would be welcome, but barely noticeable. 🥶
In the Hill article:
“I can see the climate changing and so can you.”
This sums up the author’s capacity for critical thinking. As to climate change, if global temperature is any indication, then there is none. Without El Ninos, global warming doesn’t exist.
https://rclutz.com/2022/01/12/uah-confirms-global-warming-gone-end-of-2021/
It’s safe to say that El Nino isn’t caused by greenhouse gases. Even if it was, increased CO2 isn’t caused by humans.
https://scc.klimarealistene.com/2021/10/new-papers-on-control-of-atmospheric-co2/
https://scc.klimarealistene.com/produkt/the-impact-of-human-co2-on-atmospheric-co2/
Rx for Mr. MackIntosh: Take a valium and go to bed.
Someone has been over indulging their need for more of Dr. Frankenstein.
The Hill labels Macintosh as an “opinion contributor.”
The following comes from his new book “Climate Crisis Economics.” Amazon books has his prologue – which reads like poor science fiction – and a few pages. Here are the first words from the first paragraph. It should have a red warning pasted across it for the reader: THIS IS AN OPINION.
“The climate change crisis is the existential challenge of our time. The future of the planet and survival of all living things depends on our collective effort to arrest global temperature increases, for that will determine the sustainability of all life. The relentless increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide is indisputable, disturbing, and increasingly damaging.” He then quotes the great teenage girl, the authority on all things climate.
Has Macintosh, if he is truly an intellectual, even examined the statement of CLINTEL and how they have clearly presented and explained a very different position?
Here is the “scary” science that I follow and why I love CO2:
carbon dioxide + water + sunlight
plant photosynthesis
to glucose + oxygen
The better display of societal ignorance is in the comment section.
And 3 days earlier The Hill had another whopper piece.
https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/593603-climate-will-define-bidens-legacy
The opinion pitch is simply asinine.
When future generations look back at Joe Biden’s presidency, they will likely judge him by one metric above any other: his legacy on climate action. The climate crisis is upon us, and its impacts are already devastating and deadly, but what happens in the next few years will determine whether our future is one of resilience and recovery or one of unmitigated climate catastrophe.
What is with the logic of these rummies?
The Gulf Stream will NOT slow down in a warmer world, it will speed up It’s entire raison d’etre is to transport warmer water toward cooler water.
Scared is the new normal. They just keep pushing to take my money and my soul to create this utopian people don’t count society. I went from NYC to Tucson and didn’t die from the change in temps. According to these nut jobs I should be dead and gone Climate change, Global Warming is going to take the place of Covid, and a lot harder sell so the smash mouth begins
A delusional doom centered state of mind that imagined future disasters override the historical past.
That is, Mackintosh purposely refuses to learn from the past and demands that people charge forward based upon his most extreme assumptions.
Another fool doomed to endlessly repeat his failures alongside Ehrlich, Lord Nicholas Stern, Manniacal and other alarmists.
A reasoning person has only to observe the climate hysteria is a load of crapolla because all of the climate fearmongers, such as Barrack Obama, John Kerry, Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Al Gore, et al, ALL have purchased multimillion dollar estates right on the waterfront of the oceans.
Ignore what these grifters say and watch what they do with their “own” money.
Ya gotta hand it to the lefty watermelons–they managed to make warming sound like a bad thing. Just like they said that a president who was REDUCING regulation and taxes was being a bad guy. Then they voted for a guy who promptly shredded the constitution. These red diaper doper babies aren’t watermelons, they’re alchemists; everything they touch turns to shit.
The big concern should be the fact that the Climate Alarmists have infiltrated most Western institutions including universities, scientific publications, boards of directors of many financial and other large corporations, and, most alarming Governments.
If these idiots get their way, the world will be a very inhospitable place in a few years, ironically maybe not so much in tropical 3rd world countries who have adapted to not having to rely on fossil fuels as much as the developed world.
There is little doubt that this entire “climate crisis” will collapse due to its disingenuous
reason d’etre and ailed predictions, but humanity hasn’t seemed to evolved to avoid being suckered by bogus causes since the flat earthers were in control.
So, hang on and stock up.