Guest essay by Eric Worrall
According to the AGU, a massive surge in demand for air conditioning could overload the grid in the next decade.
US household air conditioning use could exceed electric capacity in next decade due to climate change
Climate change will drive an increase in summer air conditioning use in the United States likely to cause prolonged blackouts during peak summer heat if states do not expand capacity or improve efficiency, according to a new study of household-level demand.
The study projected summertime usage as global temperature rises 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) or 2.0 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels, finding demand in the United States overall could rise 8% at the lower and 13% at the higher threshold. The new study was published in Earth’s Future, AGU’s journal for interdisciplinary research on the past, present and future of our planet and its inhabitants.
Human emissions have put the global climate on a trajectory to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming by the early 2030s, the IPCC reported in its 2021 assessment. Without significant mitigation, global temperatures will likely exceed the 2.0-degree-Celsius threshold by the end of the century.
…
Technological improvements in the efficiency of home air conditioning appliances could supply the additional cooling needed to achieve current comfort levels after 2.0 degrees global temperature rise without increased demand for electricity, the new study found. Increased efficiency of 1% to 8% would be required, depending on existing state standards and the expected demand increase, with Arkansas, Louisiana and Oklahoma on the high end.
“It’s a pretty clear warning to all of us that we can’t keep doing what we are doing or our energy system will break down in the next few decades, simply because of the summertime air conditioning,” said Susanne Benz, a geographer and climate scientist at Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia, who was not involved in the new study.
…
Read more: https://phys.org/news/2022-02-household-air-conditioning-electric-capacity.html
The abstract of the study;
Implications of Increasing Household Air Conditioning Use Across the United States Under a Warming Climate
Renee Obringer, Roshanak Nateghi, Debora Maia-Silva, Sayanti Mukherjee, Vineeth CR, Douglas Brent McRoberts, Rohini Kumar
First published: 29 December
Abstract
Soaring temperatures and increased occurrence of heatwaves have drastically increased air-conditioning demand, a trend that will likely continue into the future. Yet, the impact of anthropogenic warming on household air conditioning is largely unaccounted for in the operation and planning of energy grids. Here, by leveraging the state-of-the-art in machine learning and climate model projections, we find substantial increases in future residential air conditioning demand across the U.S.—up to 8% with a range of 5%–8.5% (13% with a range of 11%–15%) after anthropogenic warming of 1.5°C (2.0°C) in global mean temperature. To offset this climate-induced demand, an increase in the efficiency of air conditioners by as much as 8% (±4.5%) compared to current levels is needed; without this daunting technological effort, we estimate that some states will face supply inadequacies of up to 75 million “household-days” (i.e., nearly half a month per average current household) without air conditioning in a 2.0°C warmer world. In the absence of effective climate mitigation and technological adaptation strategies, the U.S. will face substantial increases in air conditioning demand and, in the event of supply inadequacies, there is increased risk of leaving millions without access to space cooling during extreme temperatures.
Read more: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021EF002434
Naturally the study uses RCP 8.5.
I think there will be a surge in energy use, which might create serious pressure on the grid. Not because temperatures will suddenly soar to ridiculous extremes, but because the AI / home robot / technology revolution will send our energy demand through the roof.
Either way, one thing for sure – luxury virtue signalling non solutions like renewables have no place in a world of skyrocketing demand for reliable energy.
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Do you suppose that these clowns are aware that the “global warming” they think is going to require greater A/C electrical demand is a result of:
ASHREA (American Society of Heating Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Engineers) has tons of location specific data on heating and cooling degree days used to determine the proper sizing of heating, cooling and ventilation systems. I very much doubt that this historically based data has suddenly become obsolete because the projection of a bunch of SWAGs know as climate models project an insignificant increase in global average temperature. That’s not to say that the electrical grid won’t collapse when a serious heat wave occurs once reliable dispatchable generation is replaced by unreliable wind and solar. That, I’m afraid, is a certainty even if there turns out to be no global warming.
The basic premise of these Alarmist Reports is so often fatally flawed that they’re laughable. The phrase of this decade is “following the science,” but anything based on RCP8.5 is by definition not “following the science.”
We’re seeing mass migrations out of coastal and extreme blue states in the US, for political and financial motivations.(Notably much of this migration is into the Southeast, especially Florida, North and South Carolina, and Georgia; so the fear of warming temperatures surely isn’t resonating with the politically and financially oppressed!)
Surely if the members of one’s family start dropping off, its not inconceivable to order up a U-Haul and move in an appropriate direction. It was -6 below here yesterday morning.
Lastly, as Duane points out in his comments, continuous improvement is the order of the day. Surely the new air conditioners being brought on line are of much higher efficiency than older units.
And to your point, Rick, the B-52 in the ointment is the grid itself. The combination of still air, extreme cold and significant snowfall accomplishes the fossil-fuel-free Green New Death.
Winter is Coming.
I think you meant WAGs. Nothing scientific about it.
Don’t worry, you can always sit in your air conditioned electric vehicle instead. No chance that they will overload the grid or the governments would not promote them.
A lot of people will be more likely to sit in their EV to warm up, the way things are going.
Once again, the myopic alarmists use an annual global average as a benchmark, ignoring the well-known fact that most warming is at night and in the Winter. Furthermore, the average is biased by Arctic warming.
For a realistic assessment they should use a prediction of the average summertime T-Max for the latitudes where the majority of people live who can afford air conditioning. They should also not use RCP8.5!
This AGU study reminds me of a high school science project where the student’s science class is being taught by a music major because the district couldn’t find any qualified science teachers.
I believe its Michigan calling in the National Guard to backfill their current Covid-induced teacher shortage.
“Class, please first don your safety glasses. Next make certain the safety is engaged on your weapon; next remove the magazine; and finally, draw back the bolt to ensure that no round is chambered.”
When the National Guard fills in for the math teacher:
“If I have a full magazine and I use my weapon to disperse the crack dealers on the corner, how many bullets are remaining after the lookout, the seller, and the crack runner have been picked up by the coroner?
Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?”
Which brings us around to the current debate about the meaning of “standard capacity magazine.” In my state a “standard capacity magazine” holds 30 rounds. Just to the south of us they’d jail you for that. Math is hard.
Amazing. GHGs warm up the winter more than the summer, and the nights more than the days, and the more cold air there is, the greater the warming if the dewpoint is less than 0C. Published that in the refereed literature in 2001.
And yet we will need more a/c but less energy for heating? AGU’s peer review process is a laugh.
Fighting back: https://www.cfact.org/2022/02/04/electric-power-reforms-gain-ground-in-virginia/
What the whole world needs. Steering away from renewable madness.
Any use of RCP 8.5 is criminal.
Do you see those window A/C units in the picture? Just turn them around. If enough people do it, it’ll get cold outside.
Brilliant.
Except i already own the patent on that.
$100 please
And if the house gets to warm, just leave the refrigerator door open to cool it back down.
We’re not going to exceed the electricity supply because of global warming, demand is going to outstrip supply because of the lame-brain schemes to stop global warming.
Quit this carbon-neutral nonsense and there should be plenty of electricity. Should be assumes we will build enough reliable, economical, capacity to match increasing demand.
Correct, Hutches. Collapsing the grid is a feature, not a bug, if your goal is to create a top-down centrally planned economy.
Can’t have options and people making decisions for themselves now, can we?
But Joe and Jane Six-pack might get a little miffed if you let on that your real goal is to control every aspect of their lives. So you have to make stuff up like, “We’re saving the Planet.”
I wonder what temperature setting they are using to make the prediction. Is the A/C setting to cool homes down to 72F, 76F or 80F?
Personally, my A/C is set at 83F in the day and 80F at night. Ceiling fans provide an extra couple of degrees of feel like coolness.
Think of all the electricity those ceiling fans use?
Since you only put them on when you are in the room, very little.
I remember the good old days when people bought electrical equipment because electricity was available.
In the 1940s we got rid of the old ice box (ice was delivered once or twice a week) and bought a refrigerator, the the old washing copper and mangle and bought a washing machine, a drying machine, vacuum cleaner and so on.
That was supply-side economics at work, apparently nowadays demand must be limited by the available supply.
Welcome to the Command Economy.
Chris
And what about Smart Meters so the power company can manage your
electricity usage?
build more grid?
The obvious solution is to reduce our electrical generation capacity.
Standard mis-information.
Even if the temperature gets to 2C rise, that is an average temperature and as we have seen its all nights and winters.
Its not getting hotter.
And as has been noted its almost all UHI so better designed cities will counteract all that, and things will continue on.
I take it last year’s summer’s work by BLM was to make way for better designed cities?
The biggest power demand for high-performance computing is cooling, so you are really falling for the same argument as the authors.
But neither proposal is correct — the grid will collapse due to 1) failure to expand to meet demand, 2) failure to maintain and modernize existing grid components 3) cyberattack of multiple vulnerabilities and points of failure 4) failure to provide reliable generation capability to allow for demand growth and compensate for mandated fake “renewable” energy sources, and probably 5) failure to take measures other than 1 and 2, above, to guard against natural and artificial high-energy events such as solar flare and EMP.
Add 4b) failure to compensate for idiotic attempts to integrate the grid with electric storage.
EVs, ACs, AI… they better find more effective supply sources and upgraded networks quick sticks.
Bringing in, illegally, large populations that are not needed will crash the grid with overload. In other words government can destroy a workable grid.
From the article: “Climate change will drive an increase in summer air conditioning use in the United States likely to cause prolonged blackouts during peak summer heat if states do not expand capacity or improve efficiency, according to a new study of household-level demand.
The study projected summertime usage as global temperature rises 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) or 2.0 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels, finding demand in the United States overall could rise 8% at the lower and 13% at the higher threshold.”
Yeah, but what if it doesn’t warm by 1.5C or 2C?
Climate Change Alarmists assume continued warming even though it is currently cooling. How long can they cling to the delusion?
I’m thinking they will cling to it eternally.
Add Electric Vehicles recharging.
Yep. Air conditioning required to counter the 1F (or so) or warming is going to bring the grid down… Not the reliance on intermittent power sources or all the electrical vehicles plugged into the grid.
Chances are good that the constantly improving home insulation and air conditioning efficiency will completely counter any additional warming over that period. But you plug in a few 10’s of millions of electrical vehicles to charge and the power grid is going to notice.
Unless it doesn’t, which is much more likely.
Actually the problem with supply falling far below demand has been around for a long time. I can recall discussions with an old friend, who was an engineer making controls for Power Plants back in the 1980’s and even then the long term planning for grid supply and stability showed the NIMBY (not in my back yard) lobby killing plans for new power plants – whether they be fossil fuel or nuclear, would result in a dramatic shortfall of power supply. And once behind the 8 ball, you cannot recover without blackouts, rationing, etc.
We are catching up to those projections and the problems will become exponentially serious due to the lead time required to build more generating capacity (conventional – anyone who believes wind and solar are an answer to anything – puts faith in unicorn fairy dust and rainbows leading to pots of gold).
Good utilities have long range resource management plans and educate public officials to get capacity built. They also have the best weather predicting people for day to day demand. It was my great pleasure to work with these people.
Also worked for a not so good utility in California. One day I get a phone call from a lady I was dating. She was irate because her A/C had been turned off. I suggested that she could go to our lobby or any one of many goverment office in Sacramento. Take a sweater, it will be cool.
The device fitted on her A/C should be mandatory for the governor, legislature, and utility CEO instead. Turn their power off first when they fail their public duty.
“educate public officials” is a bit oxymoronic.
Looks to me like they know the “renewables” push is going to fall flat so they’re getting their excuses lined up in advance.
Nothing a few more gas or coal or nuclear power stations couldn’t handle .
Its the politicians and greenies we can’t handle .
This article forgets to say that during summer heat waves, cars and homes airconditionning warm the cities by several degrees, thus contributing to the Urban Heat Island Effect.
If the global warming is 1,5 °C on average in the surrounding landscape, the temperatures increase in an urban environment may reach up to 6 to 7°C more, thus obliging to spent much more electric power for cars and homes air conditionning.