Can the US find enough natural gas sources to neutralize Russia’s energy leverage over Europe?

LNG tanker

Amy Myers Jaffe, Tufts University

The prospect of conflict between Russia and NATO countries over Ukraine has raised fears of an energy crisis in Europe. Russia provides nearly half of Europe’s natural gas, and some leaders worry that Moscow could tighten the flow if hostilities break out. To weaken Russia’s leverage, the Biden administration is working to secure additional gas shipments to Europe from other sources. Global energy policy expert Amy Myers Jaffe explains how much gas is available and what’s involved in rerouting it.

How dependent is Europe on natural gas, and who are its main suppliers?

Natural gas represents about one-fifth of all primary energy used across Europe. It accounts for about 20% of electric power generation and also is used for heating and industrial processes.

Russia is the largest supplier of natural gas to Europe, sending about 40% of the continent’s supplies shipped by pipeline. The next-largest suppliers via pipeline are Norway (22%), Algeria (18%) and Azerbaijan 9%. Europe also receives natural gas that is liquefied and delivered by ship.

In recent months, European imports of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, from the U.S. and elsewhere reached record levels at around 400 million cubic meters per day. To put that in perspective, a single LNG cargo ship can hold roughly 125,000-175,000 cubic meters of natural gas – enough energy to warm 17 million British homes for one winter day.

What are the biggest constraints for exporters on sending more gas to Europe?

LNG is made by cooling natural gas to minus 260 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 162 degrees Celsius), which reduces its volume by a factor of more than 600. Natural gas is piped to a port, processed in a liquefaction plant and then loaded into specialized insulated, temperature-controlled tankers for shipment by sea.

To receive LNG, an offloading port must have a regasification plant that converts the LNG back to a gaseous form so it can be sent by pipeline to end users. Both liquefaction plants and regasification plants cost billions of dollars and take multiple years to build.

Following a similar crisis in 2009, when a financial conflict with Ukraine prompted Russia to suspend gas shipments for 20 days, Europe substantially expanded its number of regasification facilities to 29. There is still currently space in European regasification receiving terminals to import more LNG, and plenty of storage space to hold imported supply virtually indefinitely. But many of the world’s top suppliers are maxed-out, with little capacity to produce and liquefy more natural gas than they are already moving.

The global LNG market has some flexibility. About two-thirds of all LNG is sold under firm, long-term contracts with fixed destinations. Some major contract holders like South Korea, Japan and China and their suppliers are willing to redirect cargoes to Europe if a further cutback in Russian exports creates a worsening supply crisis. https://www.youtube.com/embed/4jGrXsE6YqQ?wmode=transparent&start=0 A look at the U.S.‘s emergence as a major natural gas exporter, focusing on the company Freeport LNG.

Have suppliers rerouted shipments this way before?

The main example occurred in 2011 when a tsunami triggered a meltdown and radiation release at Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Japan shut down all of its nuclear plants to assess whether they were prepared for similar disasters. LNG suppliers diverted gas shipments to Japan to help it weather the immediate crisis.

Today, analysts say that producers or LNG importers may be able to redirect cargoes that could offset about 10%-15% of any shortfall. Still, such shifts would likely be at premium prices, leaving European consumers with an even steeper bill than they face now.

Will increased U.S. LNG shipments to Europe drive up prices for U.S. consumers?

Existing U.S. LNG export facilities have been running at full capacity for several months. About half of U.S. LNG shipments in December 2021 were destined for Europe, spurred by rising prices in European markets. Previously, a larger share of U.S. LNG exports were sailing to China, where drought-related constraints on hydroelectric power had created a surge in demand for natural gas.

In other words, U.S. sellers have been able to supply more gas to Europe by diverting export cargoes, rather than by selling gas that would otherwise have been used domestically. In my view, if U.S. natural gas prices rise in the coming weeks, winter weather is likely to be a bigger driver than LNG exports.

Wouldn’t Russia harm its own economy by cutting off gas exports to Europe and losing those revenues?

In recent years, Russia has structured its federal budget in a manner that has allowed it to stash away US$630 billion in foreign exchange reserves – cash held by the central bank in other currencies for discretionary use, much like individual savings accounts. Russian leaders can use these funds to weather any new sanctions or unexpected changes in the price of oil.

For example, last year, the Kremlin based its spending on a conservatively low break-even oil price estimate of $45 per barrel, giving itself some latitude. Ultimately, 2021 oil prices averaged $71 a barrel, providing a sizable budgetary windfall.

Through this fiscal strategy, Russian President Vladimir Putin has amassed a war chest to withstand any new round of sanctions, or even the complete loss of natural gas export revenues from Europe for a period of time.

Aerial view of skyscraper Lakhta Center in St. Petersburg, Russia

Still, any Russian move to cut off gas exports to Europe might have longer-term consequences. Putin may have hoped that his saber-rattling about natural gas, and the high prices it has triggered, would convince Europeans that Russian gas is vital and can’t be easily replaced with renewable energy. But ironically, this tactic may already have created a lasting distaste that fast-tracks Europe’s pivot to offshore wind, Euro-North African hydrogen hubs and U.S. LNG.

Gazprom, the Russian firm with the largest gas export footprint in Europe, might also find itself adrift in a sea of lawsuits and high penalty charges for breaking its contractual commitments in the wake of a cutoff. That in turn could affect the Russian people, who also rely on Gazprom’s solvency for their winter fuel for heating.

[Over 140,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletters to understand the world. Sign up today.]

Putin may be willing to bet that an energy pricing crisis in Europe will sow popular discontent, scotch the energy transition and help Russia win concessions on NATO’s positioning of troops and missiles. But there is little evidence that Europe will react that way. While Europe’s shift to renewables will take time, it will still be bad news in the long run for Russia, which has 1,688 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves left to be exploited for as much as 100 years of supply.

Amy Myers Jaffe, Research professor, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Derg
February 4, 2022 6:03 am

Russia Russia Russia…one wonders if their best trading partners are the Chinese?

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  Derg
February 4, 2022 6:36 am

Russia should be very worried about China- given that Russia grabbed all that land, all the way to North Korea. China doesn’t want just Taiwan back. Yes, Russia should be very worried.

Ron Long
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
February 4, 2022 7:13 am

Are you channeling the Tom Clancy book “The Bear and the Dragon””. Great read.

Bryan A
Reply to  Ron Long
February 4, 2022 4:07 pm

Can the US find enough natural gas sources to neutralize Russia’s energy leverage over Europe?
Frack Yeah

Ed Zuiderwijk
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
February 4, 2022 7:45 am

And the Crimea or shortly Eastern Ukraine will provide a wonderful precedent. No wonder emperor Xi is smiling all the time.

MarkW
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
February 4, 2022 8:01 am

There are vast tracks of eastern Russia, that Russia could not defend if China decides to take it.

PCman999
Reply to  MarkW
February 4, 2022 9:29 am

I’d give even odds that the Russians would use tactical nukes on any such incursion, just to make a point and there’s probably vast undiscovered resources there anyway.

Any one have any good resources to add about Russian-Chinese border relations?

bonbon
Reply to  PCman999
February 4, 2022 12:17 pm

See above about massive oil deals – hey, even the Poodle can search that!

pigs_in_space
Reply to  MarkW
February 4, 2022 10:17 am

This is a stupid debate.
The Chinese already ARE taking vast tracts of Eastern Russia esp Siberia.

They don’t need to do anything other than sending millions over the border to extract wood and marry Russians who are happier having a man who doesn’t routinely get drunk and trash the place every other weekend.

This is not rumour, it’s actually happening since Putin’s stupid and senseless occupation of a bankrupt peninsula, (2014) while those same corrupt nuts throw money at the worthless stony beaches and rotten roads of Crimea.

Stasi operatives always were dumbf..cks like Putin’s boss Mielke.

Within 2 decades Russia will have lost a huge slice of Siberia without a single shot being fired and the smile of Xi’s face will be stuck on some wall like Mao.

Richard Page
Reply to  pigs_in_space
February 4, 2022 11:54 am

All fairly true except Russia won’t give that territory up, neither will they nuke it. It’s the closest thing they’ve got to all year round warm water ports without having to go through straits controlled by other nations. As to the Crimea – it is fairly useless except for the Zalyv shipyards, which Russia desperately needs to rebuild it’s navy – remember the fiasco when France retained the helicopter carrier it was building? Zalyv are building 2 of them. If you want to talk about stupid, talk about letting the Zalyv shipyards go in the first place!

bonbon
Reply to  pigs_in_space
February 4, 2022 12:21 pm

‘fraid yer geography is skewed : British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss knows better :
British foreign minister mocked by Russia after geography gaffeLiz Truss said that the UK’s “Baltic allies” were located on the Black Sea, despite them being over 1,000km apart

https://www.rt.com/russia/548225-uk-foreign-minister-geography-gaffe/

There, fixed it for ya.

Willem Post
Reply to  pigs_in_space
February 5, 2022 4:38 am

I was in Crimea in 2020.

First flew to Moscow, then with a Russian airline to Crimea’s new airport, which is totally stunning.

There is still a lot of old stuff, courtesy of Ukraine’s 40 years of mismanagement, oligarch corruption, underinvestment

Now, there are huge changes everywhere.

New paving and small parks with benches everywhere, upgraded sewer systems, upgraded electrical distribution systems, new power plants, upgraded municipal water supply, a new 20-mile bridge, a new world-class airport, new highways, similar to German autobahns.

Putin has made Crimea into a show place, a la Sochi.

In 2021, 7 million Russians and about one million Ukrainians, did not going to Turkey or Egypt, but to Crimea, because of the many new tourist accommodations and attractions

Last edited 3 months ago by Willem Post
Duker
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
February 4, 2022 9:25 pm

It was Russian territory before it was Chinese and lastly Russian again

Remember the great Wall of China, once the border is well inside. Modern china

Duker
Reply to  Duker
February 4, 2022 9:28 pm

This was the treaty where Russia gave up the Amur region
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Nerchinsk

Frank from NoVA
Reply to  Derg
February 4, 2022 7:01 am

The American left loved Russia when it was the nexus of the Soviet Union and world communism, so it’s no surprise that Russia has become anathema since the USSR dissolved and relegated Marxism to the ash heap of history. Russia’s being less than ‘woke’ re. social issues has only reinforced the left’s hatred.

MarkW
Reply to  Frank from NoVA
February 4, 2022 8:03 am

The American left still loves anyone who opposes the US.
China hasn’t given more than lip service to communism for over a decade, though Xi seems to want to bring it back.

Last edited 3 months ago by MarkW
Robert Alfred Taylor
Reply to  MarkW
February 4, 2022 2:21 pm

Socialism has two faces: Marxism and Fascism.
Marxism is the triumph of monopoly capitalism: Everyone must work for the company. Everyone is paid in company script. Everyone must buy at the company store.
Fascism and Nazism are a variation where businesses are allowed to exist so long as they strictly obey the Party line and strictly support the Party, vide ESG.
China is now a Fascist country.

TonyG
Reply to  Robert Alfred Taylor
February 4, 2022 5:31 pm

Fascism and Nazism are a variation where businesses are allowed to exist so long as they strictly obey the Party line and strictly support the Party,

That sounds familiar…

Duker
Reply to  TonyG
February 4, 2022 9:37 pm

Yes. The Trumpism take over of the Republicans…..wo beside you if you don’t become a vassal to the great man….the world’s greatest genius …the Fuhrer

Duker
Reply to  Robert Alfred Taylor
February 4, 2022 9:33 pm

Nonsense. Facism is an extreme right wing ideology…Mussolini, Hitler, Franco all right wing and strenously opposed by left and socialist parties.

Richard Page
Reply to  Duker
February 5, 2022 3:53 am

Fascism is an ideology separate from either right or left wing politics – historically it has been seen to be of the right but it can be of the left as well.

Willem Post
Reply to  Robert Alfred Taylor
February 5, 2022 4:59 am

Russia just passed a law making it much easier to start and successfully run small businesses, such as making consumer goods, to tap the benefits of the Russian entrepreneurial spirit, and reduce expensive consumer goods imported from France, Italy, etc.

Willem Post
Reply to  Frank from NoVA
February 5, 2022 4:54 am

Russian hates woke, the main reason it closed down the foreign-funded NGOs that were preaching Western wokeness to Russians.

King Coal
Reply to  Derg
February 4, 2022 11:38 am

Russia & China have just signed another 30 year gas supply deal – the East prospers, the West withers away

Graeme#4
Reply to  King Coal
February 4, 2022 3:45 pm

Has a gas pipeline from Russia to China been built yet? Thought one was under construction.

Willem Post
Reply to  Graeme#4
February 5, 2022 5:07 am

The east Siberia pipeline was finished 2 years ago

The new contract with China requires a new pipe about 1500 km

While the US stupidly ended the Keystone pipeline, Russia and China are building new ones.

Another pipeline system will go from Russia to India, and connect with various other countries

Willem Post
Reply to  Derg
February 6, 2022 4:53 am

The high gas spot prices in Europe are entirely due to Brussels EU bureaucrats telling EU countries NOT to sign long-term pipeline gas supply contracts with Russia, because it would sent the wrong virtue signal regarding EU environmental policies.

Russia made sure to deliver slightly MORE gas than required by existing long-term contracts, to preserve its reputation of reliable supplier.

This has been acknowledged by Brussels, Germany, etc., because of recorded pipeline system operating data.

When wind and solar underperformed in Europe, countries used more gas, withdrew gas from storage, and spot prices rapidly increased to very high levels.

Thus far, only 4 countries signed NEW long-term contracts, at very attractive prices, compared to spot prices.

More countries will follow when THEIR contracts are near their end.

Russia has invested about $50 billion in gas production systems and thousands of miles of pipeline systems, which require long-term contracts to pay for them.

Russia could have delivered more gas to the EU to depress spot prices, but that would not make good commercial sense, on a long- term basis

In the mean time, LNG carriers are being diverted to Europe that can supply about 20 to 30 billion cubic meter per year, but Russia supplies Europe with about 200 bcm/y.

That situation will last at least 5 to 10 years, because it would take that long to buildup world LNG production, AND CARRIERS, AND SENDING PORTS, AND RECEIVING PORTS, AND CONNECTIONS TO EXISTING PIPELINE SYSTEMS

Last edited 3 months ago by Willem Post
Tom Halla
February 4, 2022 6:10 am

Or the Europeans could tell the greens to pound sand, and do fracking and nuclear.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Tom Halla
February 4, 2022 6:49 am

Yes, the question should be how fast can Europe get its fracking going.

Alan Robertson
Reply to  Tom Halla
February 4, 2022 7:38 am

Yes, that’s right.
This article underscores many of the problems of the world, namely that almost all scarcities of goods essential to life, even food, are the result of political maneuverings.

I do not think it was the author’s purpose to offer a solution, but to bolster a political position.
Rah Rah for our side.

Duane
Reply to  Tom Halla
February 4, 2022 8:07 am

That is actually the most likely outcome. The “gas” of greenism has been let out of the balloon, resulting from cold winters, high prices, and regional security threats from Russia. Euro leaders are either going to get the memo, or the voters will replace them.

Richard Page
Reply to  Tom Halla
February 4, 2022 8:39 am

Brilliant idea and one that could have been front and centre of policies in the EU and UK if only the USA hadn’t been committed to being their no.1 source of gas and (at times) been actively opposed to European fracking. Now it’s just a little bit late in the game to suggest a ‘do-over’. The best option is and always has been to ramp up domestic European gas production and reduce reliance on outside sources; the recent ‘spot price’ disaster is proof that no outside source of gas will provide sustained energy security.

MarkW
Reply to  Richard Page
February 4, 2022 9:04 am

In your opinion, the only reason why the EU has opposed fraking for decades, is because the current US administration is opposed to it?
Their local politicians and activists had absolutely no role in those decisions?

Last edited 3 months ago by MarkW
Richard Page
Reply to  MarkW
February 4, 2022 10:55 am

Not quite but given the way that EU and UK politicians have been sucking up to the Obama and Biden regimes as well as insisting on USA taking the lead on the climate change race to the bottom, it’s certainly a contributing factor. If the USA had championed energy security and fracking, rather than dependency on US imports then it might have led to a different outcome.

MarkW
Reply to  Richard Page
February 4, 2022 11:43 am

The only position that the US has taken is that reliance on Russia for your energy needs is a stupid thing to do.

bonbon
Reply to  MarkW
February 4, 2022 12:24 pm

Nobody need the $US to ‘take care of us’ – clean up yer own disaster!

MarkW
Reply to  bonbon
February 4, 2022 6:01 pm

Reading comprehension is not your thing, is it.

Richard Page
Reply to  MarkW
February 4, 2022 12:48 pm

And lifted the ban on exports of US gas just as they were condemning the reliance on Russian gas. Weirdly enough, it may have been Hillary Clinton’s efforts to push European countries to use US companies to do the fracking that resulted in a pushback.

MarkW
Reply to  Richard Page
February 4, 2022 6:03 pm

There were many reasons for lifting the ban on exporting gas. Not the least of which it was just plain stupid.
Do you honestly believe that everything the US does it does with the goal of dominating Europe?

Richard Page
Reply to  MarkW
February 5, 2022 3:55 am

No. Just the European markets to maximise profits.

oeman 50
February 4, 2022 6:14 am

The administration is not interested in supplying all available sources of non-Russian natural gas because it just withdrew support from the EastMed pipeline from Israel to Cyprus to Europe. Go figure.

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  oeman 50
February 4, 2022 6:39 am

Yuh, nothing is more important than stopping fossil fuels. On Tony Heller’s site, he often shows a clip of Biden telling a young woman that when he takes office he’s gonna stop all fossil fuels- and he said, “I guarantee it”.

2hotel9
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
February 4, 2022 7:42 am

Jim Quinn runs that clip fairly often, too.

Scissor
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
February 4, 2022 8:12 am

As I recall, he walks up to a teenage girl, grabs her hand, asks her to look into his eyes and he “guarantees that he will end fossil fuel.”

He’s worse than sniffer in chief.

Last edited 3 months ago by Scissor
Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  Scissor
February 4, 2022 8:22 am

but in doing so, and giving us all this inflation- he’s going to end his presidency- I just hope the Republicans will find someone other than Trump- a younger, good looking, charming guy who will have similar policies as Trump- must be somebody out there

Scissor
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
February 4, 2022 9:23 am

Someone who likes sunshine, orange juice and freedom, more importantly.

PCman999
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
February 4, 2022 9:33 am

Preferably a Black woman, hopefully business woman. Would love to see the leftists heads explode.

alf
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
February 4, 2022 10:17 am

Yes, agreed. Someone who realizes that he needs to reduce himself as a target and manage his image so that the MSN does not have something to detract from his policies.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  alf
February 4, 2022 10:38 am

You’re dreaming. Any Republican who threatens the socialist agenda is going to be smeared relentlessly by the left and the leftwing media, just like they did Trump.

It’s standard operating procedure for the Left. Character assasination is all they have.

They will turn the golden boy, DeSantis, into Hitler in fairly short order.

Those lies must be effective. We have people on our side who whine that they don’t like Trump because he attracts attacks, but any Republican who threatens the socialist status quo is going to get the same treatment.

So give up on the Left being nice to our chosen guy, and vote for Trump because Trump is a proven commodity who gets things done and is the most innocent man in politics and the most unencumbered, proven by the Left’s constant failure to pin even one crime on him, despite their best efforts, which are ongoing, btw.

Trump is the man. DeSantis can be his vice president. Then DeSantis can show us if he is presidential material. I think he is but I haven’t seen any foreign policy positions from him so he is still a question mark in some categories. But I do like him. And I do think Trump is the better choice at this time.

Yes, give up on the Left being nice to anyone on the Right who threatens their agenda. It’s not going to happen. It’s going to be just like the way they did and are doing Trump. There will be no change. It’s hatred and fear from the Left all the way down.

MarkW
Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 4, 2022 10:48 am

Look how the media attacked both Bush’s, even though compared to Trump, the Bush’s were practically on their side.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  MarkW
February 5, 2022 12:56 am

Excellent point. GW wouldn’t even fight back, and the Left still excoriated him at every turn.

“Mission Accomplished” comes to mind.

After the Iraq war, the Left completely distorted what was going on, making it out like the “Mission Accomplished” banner hanging on the aricraft carrier, Abraham Lincoln, was meant to praise Bush personally, rather than praise the aircraft carrier and the crew of the Abraham Lincoln for their actions during the war. And Bush did nothing to push back on this distortion of reality, which stands as “truth” today.

I see where GW has donated money to many of the Republicans in congress who opposed Trump (none of whom will be in congress after November). GW is another one who can’t see past the leftwing propaganda. His kind of Republican is eager to please the leftwing media in hopes they won’t be attacked, but it never happens.

The leftwing media use these useful idiots like GW and McCain and then throw them to the wolves when they are no longer useful.

It’s pathetic how some Republicans kowtow to the leftwing media. To them, the leftwing media is the Voice of Authority, so they want to be in its good graces, so they turn into sniveling, useful idiots for the socialist left and adopt their way of looking at the world.

Last edited 3 months ago by Tom Abbott
roaddog
Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 4, 2022 11:21 am

Exactly right.

MarkW
Reply to  alf
February 4, 2022 10:47 am

Even if they have to make up stuff, the MSN will do everything in their power to distract from the actual issues and policies.
These guys would make Jesus himself look like a blood thirsty, racist, warmonger.

roaddog
Reply to  MarkW
February 4, 2022 11:22 am

The Kavanaugh hearings were the template. The future is littered with lies and fabrication.

MarkW
Reply to  roaddog
February 4, 2022 11:44 am

Kavenaugh? Are you not old enough to remember the Bork and Thomas hearings?

ex-KaliforniaKook
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
February 4, 2022 1:41 pm

Similar policies but without the drive to make them happen? That would describe President Reagan who allowed himself to be flummoxed on immigration, and Governor Schwartenegger when all three of his propositions went down in flames. in the latter case, he transitioned smoothly into being a RINO.

I’d rather someone familiar with the art of the deal, who didn’t let opposition stop him from tightening border security and building (some) of the wall. Who ignored the bureaucrats and made are allies and enemies bargain with us. Who found alternatives to going to war.

You’re asking for a nice guy. Old American adage: Nice guys finish last.

Anon
February 4, 2022 6:15 am

Watch coal make a big comeback after all of this… there is enough of that to keep civilization going for centuries.

Japan Races to Build New Coal-Burning Power Plants, Despite the Climate Risks

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/03/climate/japan-coal-fukushima.html

And all will get the “green” label as they can be retrofitted to produce dispatchable hydrogen when the technology matures. (lol)

Coach Springer
Reply to  Anon
February 4, 2022 7:45 am

I don’t know about hydrogen, but coal is OK and the alternative that must not be mentioned.

PCman999
Reply to  Anon
February 4, 2022 9:43 am

Hopefully the new plants will all be high efficiency super critical units – so government and industry can expound that fact every chance they get, to steal back the narrative from the basically insane environmentalists.

jeffery p
Reply to  Anon
February 4, 2022 10:19 am

I’d like to see a clean coal mining revolution.

MarkW
Reply to  jeffery p
February 4, 2022 10:49 am

In the west, government regulations require restoration of all open pit mines.

Spetzer86
February 4, 2022 6:16 am

I’d worry more about the D’s desire to cut off all sources of fossil fuel in the USA than whether the EU can sustain itself through their own stupid policies.

David Kamakaris
February 4, 2022 6:26 am

“Can the US find enough natural gas sources to neutralize Russia’s energy leverage over Europe?”

Not with the current administration. Yes, if Trump was still President.

RevJay4
Reply to  David Kamakaris
February 4, 2022 12:04 pm

There ya go. That is the answer. Trump was in the process of setting up that scenario when he was cheated out of office. And the kung flu arrived about the time Trump was setting up fair trade with China. See the connections of the dots. With the dems help, of course.

February 4, 2022 6:34 am

Can the US find enough natural gas sources to neutralize Russia’s energy leverage over Europe?

Well there is always the Eastern Mediterranean to consider:
Egypt and Cyprus to boost Eastern Med gas ties
Greece, Israel, Cyprus sign EastMed gas pipeline deal

Last edited 3 months ago by Philip Mulholland
Joseph Zorzin
February 4, 2022 6:35 am

some leaders worry that Moscow could tighten the flow if hostilities break out”

Actually, the EU should stop the flow the minute Russian troops move into Ukraine. It’ll hurt Russia more than the EU.

Gregory Woods
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
February 4, 2022 7:42 am

I believe that Putin is smarter than that….

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  Gregory Woods
February 4, 2022 8:12 am

He is- he’s playing “extreme poker”.

Richard Page
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
February 4, 2022 8:45 am

As a very famous diplomat once said about international affairs “America plays poker, Russia plays chess.” And apologies if I misquoted.

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  Richard Page
February 4, 2022 8:54 am

But the east Asians really play the long game. One of the east Asian car companies- I can’t recall which- I read doesn’t do 5 year plans- instead, it has a 250 year plan. And China certainly has the same perspective since its civilization is the oldest of all. Read Michael Pillsbury’s “The Hundred-Year Marathon” subtitled, “China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower”. It just so happens, I was born on the day China became The People’s Republic of China- 10/1/49 so I watch what it does. :-}

MarkW
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
February 4, 2022 10:50 am

A company that’s planning 250 years into the future, is a company that’s wasting resources. Even 5 year plans are iffy.

TonyG
Reply to  MarkW
February 4, 2022 11:31 am

Even 5 year plans are iffy.

I suggest that depends on the product. Whiskey comes to mind.

pigs_in_space
Reply to  Gregory Woods
February 4, 2022 10:23 am

Putin is just a nasty little midget who has still a Stasi heart, and control freak training.
Such stupid little dictators don’t realise whilst presiding over a country with only the GDP of Italy, they can’t punch higher than the weight of Berlusconi.
(which explained the long term friendship, quite apart from the climate being a ton better in Tuscany than it ever will be in miserable grey Moscow)!

MarkW
Reply to  pigs_in_space
February 4, 2022 10:51 am

The Russophiles are out in force today.

Richard Page
Reply to  MarkW
February 4, 2022 11:57 am

So is the Russophobe-in-chief, I noticed!

gringojay
Reply to  pigs_in_space
February 4, 2022 1:46 pm

Moscow was just formally rated this week by the United Nations Human Settlements Program ranking as the third (3rd) most “prosperous” city (after 1st Singapore & 2nd Toronto). The ranking was on the basis of six (6) categorical indices.

Moscow was even ranked first (1st) in two of those categories. Namely Moscow came out best in “quality of life”, comprising features like education, science, crime rate and green area cover; as well as best in “infrastructure”, comprising features like access to internet and access to public transportation.

304E111D-01FB-419E-8201-943024F80B3F.jpeg
Last edited 3 months ago by gringojay
pigs_in_space
Reply to  gringojay
February 4, 2022 7:50 pm

And pray do you live in Moscow?

It’s all very well to warble on about stuff you know nothing about, but I have, and I don’t want to any more.

Moscow is a desperate place to live with low wages, long hours 6 months of miserable grey weather, and an obsolete road system which means sitting in jams for hours if you need to drive around the Mkad.

And you are quoting what?
The United Nations??
WTF!

Richard Page
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
February 4, 2022 8:42 am

Unless Nordstream2 is online first, my money is on Ukraine cutting off the flow to Europe and blaming it on Russia.

bonbon
Reply to  Richard Page
February 4, 2022 9:50 am

they did that before, and now with all those helmets from germany surely would not bite the hand that protects it?

gringojay
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
February 4, 2022 10:40 am

Not really true for several reasons. Although it is true that your proposal would cause different kinds of problems for Russia, the various EU member states and other countries.

gowest
February 4, 2022 6:36 am

All because Biden shut down the US fracking to please his global warming masters. A class action from the Europeans who die of cold to sue the green idiots??

ResourceGuy
February 4, 2022 6:40 am

So must redouble our fracking efforts to serve Europe.

Rusty
Reply to  ResourceGuy
February 4, 2022 8:00 am

US fracking = good. Euro fracking = massive earthquakes and polluted water supplies and global warming = bad.

It’s the same with CO2. Euro produced CO2 = bad. Chinese produced CO2 = good.

Import the gas and goods is the new Euro model.

Kit P
February 4, 2022 6:47 am

I know something that cost billions and takes years to year a to build.

Small nuclear power plants with massive generating capacity for a 100 years.

Joel
February 4, 2022 6:49 am

This article makes Russia sound like the adult in the room. The Europeans are simply insane. Their green energy fantasy is damaging their economies and they want Russia to step in and help them. They then go on to brag that once they build enough wind and solar facilities they will simply kick Russia to the curb. How insane must your behavior be before you are sent to the padded room? In the economic system advocated by Western democracies Russia has every right and indeed the responsibility to squeeze maximum profit out of its customers while obeying the law and honoring contracts.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Joel
February 4, 2022 10:44 am

“How insane must your behavior be before you are sent to the padded room?”

Good question.

The Madness of Crowds.

c1ue
February 4, 2022 6:52 am

Very weak analysis.
No mention of Power of Siberia 2 – a 55 bcm pipeline to China that (not coincidentally) matches the 55 bcm capacity of Nord Stream 2.
No mention of what the baseline LNG cost per 1000m3 is.
No mention of the capacity of existing and in process LNG terminals in the US, or the lack of LNG terminals in key portions of the EU.

John Garrett
Reply to  c1ue
February 4, 2022 7:56 am

Amy Myers Jaffe is another yapper and professional pundit.

Until I see evidence to the contrary, I’d classify her as another innumerate, economic illiterate and member of the green blob who are reeling from a recent sharp dose of reality in the form of skyrocketing EU gas and electricity prices that they failed to anticipate.

From her website:

Amy Myers Jaffe
Managing Director, Climate Policy Lab
Research Professor
The Fletcher School
Tufts University
Current Research Projects
Digital Technology Innovation and Energy; Energy and Climate Risk in Global Credit
Markets. Decarbonization strategies for transportation. Hydrogen networks and natural gas
infrastructure. COVID 19 and oil markets. Role of SOEs in climate policy.
Education
Princeton University (1980) Bachelor of Arts, Near Eastern Studies and Arabic

Last edited 3 months ago by John Garrett
MarkW
Reply to  c1ue
February 4, 2022 8:08 am

The article mentioned that the US LNG terminals have been maxed out for awhile and that Europe has little spare capacity.
I don’t see how the exact current price of LNG matters in the context of this article.
I also don’t see how the existence of Siberia2 makes a difference in the context of this article.

c1ue
Reply to  MarkW
February 5, 2022 9:56 am

The base price of LNG matters a lot – it means the cost of natural gas transported this way has a baseline price which is significantly above “normal” natural gas prices.
Equally, Power of Siberia 2 means that if Germany doesn’t approve Nord Stream 2, Russia can just send the NG that was meant to go through there, to China instead.
Note the amount of NG transited through Ukraine in 2020 was…55.3 bcm.
So geopolitically and economically, US LNG is hardly a game changer for Europe.

c1ue
Reply to  MarkW
February 5, 2022 10:04 am

Kinetrex, an LNG supplier, says natural gas cost is “only” 30% of LNG cost. That implies LNG cost is more than 3x more than base NG input – although not clear if that is proportional to the NG price or not.
I’d guess not since we’re talking about refrigeration = electricity and transport = oil, but it seems both of those are also going to get more expensive in the energy cycle we are in.

https://www.kinetrexenergy.com/post-7-myths-using-lng/

bonbon
Reply to  c1ue
February 4, 2022 9:52 am

Agree on the wobbly bit. Above I tried to fill in the gaps in the threadbare weave….

Graeme#4
Reply to  c1ue
February 4, 2022 3:52 pm

Is this pipeline now supplying gas to China? Haven’t heard anything about it if it is now operational.

c1ue
Reply to  Graeme#4
February 5, 2022 9:57 am

Power of Siberia 1 is already operating; Power of Siberia 2 is a 55 bcm expansion just as Nord Stream 2 is an expansion on Nord Stream 1.
All 4 projects are 55 bcm design capacity.

Tom Abbott
February 4, 2022 7:00 am

From the article: “The prospect of conflict between Russia and NATO countries over Ukraine has raised fears of an energy crisis in Europe.”

I don’t think there is going to be a direct conflict between NATO and Russia. It will be another proxy war with Russians fighting the Ukranians and NATO supplying Ukranians with arms and money.

The Ukranians say they are going to put up a fight and I don’t doubt it. Putin is not going to have everything his way if he enters Ukraine. The last time Russians entered Ukraine in 2014, they didn’t do so well, and that’s according to their own after-action reports. And Putin’s popularity suffered during that time as Russian troops came home in bodybags.

What the U.S. and NATO should do is give the Ukranians all the weapons they need to fight for themselves, and the U.S. and NATO should greatly strengthen its miliary capabilities in the NATO nations surrounding Ukraine as a means of deterring further adventures of Putin. A strong defense setup and a strong will, will deter Putin.

Putin can attack Ukraine but he should probably think twice about doing so, and maybe he is thinking, and is just bluffing military action to see what kind of reaction he can get from the West.

Putin does not hold all the cards.

John Tillman
Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 4, 2022 7:20 am

Both Russian and Ukrainian armed forces have improved since 2014, but Russia’s advantages are still overwhelming. Ukraine’s Ground, Air Assault and Special Forces have gained strength, but its Air Force and Navy remain weak.

Last edited 3 months ago by John Tillman
Richard Page
Reply to  John Tillman
February 4, 2022 8:58 am

The entire Ukraine military has been run into the ground with complete neglect for decades. Years of having the military budget plundered by the oligarchs and endemic corruption in the conscription system have taken their toll. What there is of the Ukraine military has vastly improved since 2014 but while the oligarchs are selling upgraded apc’s and tanks to Iraq and Pakistan, the Ukraine military is left with equipment from the 1960’s and 70’s. The Ukraine military tries to talk up it’s game but will still only be a speed bump on the way to the Black sea. Having said that, I still believe that this is sabre rattling and brinksmanship on Putin’s part – if he meant war, he’d have moved far more men and equipment into the area.

bonbon
Reply to  Richard Page
February 4, 2022 9:54 am

Even worse the Ukrainian pipelines are on the point of literally bursting if more volume is pumped – no maintenance for decades. Ukraine’s economy is utterly ruined well below Soviet levels in 1990.

pigs_in_space
Reply to  bonbon
February 4, 2022 10:27 am

Bonbon has never ever been anywhere near Ukraine, but thinks he is an eggspert.

Hey how about going there some day instead of shouting shit from your St Petersbourg best mates??

bonbon
Reply to  pigs_in_space
February 4, 2022 11:48 am

Miss Piggy – the Ukraine pipes are Schrott – geddit?

John Tillman
Reply to  Richard Page
February 4, 2022 10:38 am

Russia could indeed swiftly overrun eastern and southern Ukraine, but then he has to occupy those regions. This would be a huge drain on his military manpower, at least until a pro-Russian local militia could be sttod up.

Putin is now increasing the number of troops. Current US estimate for those close to the borders is about 130,000 soldiers. Should he decide to invade, he can move more ground and air forces in.

But he also has about 75,000 paratroopers in a separate service, naval infantry and Spetsnaz commandos. He can bring sufficient force to bear for long enough to conquer at least half the country. But he might settle for a third.

Russian airborne squad. They have their own air-dropped armored vehicles. Their equipment is being upgraded.

In an invasion, the descent force would capture Dnepr dams and bridges, cutting off Kyiv’s power supply.

comment image

Last edited 3 months ago by John Tillman
Richard Page
Reply to  John Tillman
February 4, 2022 11:15 am

The picture is of a light air assault unit in their plane. The heavy airborne units are the ones with airborne apc’s, assault guns and various other airborne vehicles. I am aware of those forces, as well as the Razvedki and Reydoviki of the airborne and naval Spetznaz units. The airborne equipment has already been upgraded, to the point that they are mostly equipped with new BMD-3’s and the troubled BMD-4’s (and it’s still unknown if the 3 will be replaced by the 4 or if it will be used as a fire support vehicle).
If Putin does invade, he will knock out the Ukraine military, remove the current regime and install one leaning towards Russia – probably supported by Eastern Ukraine and Crimean militias. He won’t need to conquer all the country, least of all occupy it all.

bonbon
Reply to  Richard Page
February 4, 2022 11:50 am

Ye are silly. Yer game only exists in Meta!

John Tillman
Reply to  Richard Page
February 4, 2022 11:54 am

They’re paratroopers, but they drop separately from their armored vehicles. Against Ukraine, the infantry would probably drop from smaller transport aircraft, while the bigger Il-76s and Antonovs (from Ukraine!) would deliver vehicles and heavy weapons. They can also descend from helicopters, as do Ground Forces air assault brigades.

I doubt that Putin intends to occupy the whole country, but he would need to leave troops in the regions he does take, since the rump Ukraine would raid the seized territory, and NATO might support guerrillas.

Just setting up a puppet regime wouldn’t stop what’s left of Ukraine from fighting back. But he can cut off its gas and electric power, should he go as far as the Dnepr dams. However pro-Russian Ukrainian volunteers could help ease his manpower crunch until a Novorossiya national militia be stood up.

Here’s a good recent troop-to-task calculation, assuming only the eastern third of the country be occupied, plus the Dnepr delta and possibly the Black Sea coast all the way to Transnistria.

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2022/02/03/troop-to-task_a_russian_invasion_of_ukraine_815091.html

BMD-4M is an improvement.

Last edited 3 months ago by John Tillman
Richard Page
Reply to  John Tillman
February 4, 2022 1:13 pm

You’re assuming that Putin wants more of Ukraine whereas I don’t think he does. All he really wants from Ukraine are the Crimean shipyards and a government that won’t go joining NATO or the EU at any point. To accomplish that he could airland troops to seize an airport near Kyiv, land heavier units (even the airborne don’t like airdropping vehicles too often) whilst pushing forces overland to join up and use the airborne forces to seize government buildings and key people in Kyiv. When he’s installed an eastern dominated puppet government he can pretty much withdraw knowing that even in a worst case scenario, Ukraine won’t be joining NATO and won’t be used as a base against Russia. Meanwhile, he’ll carry on building the large naval ships that he needed the Crimea for.
Best way to screw up Putin’s plans – get Turkey onside to enforce a ban on military ships passing through the dardanelles.
And yes the BMD 4 is an improvement, in that it can now fire a missile through the barrel of the main gun, rather than climbing onto the exposed turret roof to fire it. Rather an expensive way of accomplishing that though, wasn’t it?

John Tillman
Reply to  Richard Page
February 4, 2022 2:01 pm

Russian tanks have long fired ATGMs through their main armaments, plus BMP-3.

International treaties require the Dardanelles be kept open.

Putin has already made it impossible for Ukraine to join NATO, just as he did in Georgia, by creating border disputes with separatist enclaves. As long as he has Crimea and the Donbas, NATO’s own rules make Ukrainian membership impsossible.

There is or was a lot of industry in East Ukraine that Putin would like to reacquire, and the Black Sea coast would improve his strategic position. Plus, Odessa is an important port.

He might well attack all Russian speaking-majority oblasts. Or not. There’s a lot of risk and benefit to calculate. Dictators often make calculation errors, as did H!tler in June and December 1941.

Richard Page
Reply to  John Tillman
February 5, 2022 4:08 am

John, in the discussion about airborne forces, I agree that the BMD-4 is an improvement for the reason I gave specifically because neither tanks nor BMP-3’s are air-droppable (more than once anyway). This gives airborne forces a much needed capability that they didn’t have before.
As an indication of Putin’s intentions towards the rest of Ukraine, he hasn’t made any attempt to integrate Donetsk and Luhansk into the Russian Federation – he’s virtually ignored them. I still maintain that he got exactly what he wanted in Crimea and isn’t after territorial gains in the rest of Ukraine.

Peter Müller
February 4, 2022 7:03 am

The USA want to sell it own energy to europe, so they provoke Putin. USA has become a warmonger. It is Soros/Gore which is behind this.

MarkW
Reply to  Peter Müller
February 4, 2022 8:10 am

How exactly has the US provoked Putin?
Do you have any other paranoid fantasies that you want to push while you’re at it?

pigs_in_space
Reply to  MarkW
February 4, 2022 10:30 am

Muller and Bonbon are just Russian trolls.
follow the money.

They print crap like this all over all the media from a warm office paid for by Prighozin, so they don’t have to spend their days in Kupchino out of work.

bonbon
Reply to  pigs_in_space
February 4, 2022 11:50 am

Trolls with piggish hooves are something else. Cop on!

bonbon
Reply to  Peter Müller
February 4, 2022 9:57 am

The US is for everyone see a desperate warmonger. See Price’s presser here :
Ned Price’s Verbal Duel with Matt Lee at US State Department Press Briefing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xuvb3FEHz3U

Basically trust $us….

MarkW
Reply to  bonbon
February 4, 2022 10:54 am

I see your hatred of Britain and the US has once again caused you to get into bed with whatever fascist is currently in the headlines.

bonbon
Reply to  MarkW
February 4, 2022 11:53 am

The Smell of a Dodgy Dossier – Blair’s pass to hell, has obviously spooked even establishment reporters – been there done that. Remember the late Powell saying he knew it was a lie and ordered the worst mistake as Trumps said.

Bad idea to play Londons’s Harlequin, what?

MarkW
Reply to  bonbon
February 4, 2022 6:09 pm

I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that this made sense to you at least.

bonbon
Reply to  MarkW
February 5, 2022 3:05 am

It made sense to Powell, and look at the disaster! Blair, you know, the recently ordained Order of the Garter guy with Iraq WMD dodgy dossiers?
More than 1 million know what Dodgy Dossier’s mean :
Tony Blair to have his “Knight Companion of the Most Noble Order of the Garter” rescinded
https://www.change.org/p/the-prime-minister-tony-blair-to-have-his-knight-companion-of-the-most-noble-order-of-the-garter-rescinded

Time to do some reading, eh Harlequin?

fretslider
February 4, 2022 7:10 am

“What are the biggest constraints”

The ideology of Net Zero.

Like the British

“German government upholds fracking ban”

https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/german-government-upholds-fracking-ban/

Few of our politicians have any clue on the history of Crimea, all the whipped up fear of a war is another handy distraction from problems at home. Putin needs the money.

Amac
February 4, 2022 7:31 am

Lots of natural gas in the Uk but the government decides to import some from Russia and power through cables from France.

fretslider
Reply to  Amac
February 4, 2022 7:53 am

The UK gets most of its imported gas from Qatar.

Rusty
Reply to  fretslider
February 4, 2022 10:08 am

Norway actually.

bonbon
Reply to  fretslider
February 4, 2022 12:33 pm

Have a look at Maggie’s British Aerospace Al Yamamah deal – oil for weapons. The name means Dove of Peace curiously, and that fund vanished to the Caymans, became the terrorist slush fund. 9/11 cost a bundle!
Even the Grauniad :

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/aug/24/declassified-papers-reveal-real-reason-for-thatchers-dash-to-riyadh

2hotel9
February 4, 2022 7:35 am

No, the question is will morons running European countries allow their citizens to access the natural gas and oil they ALREADY have, much less develop more.

Rud Istvan
February 4, 2022 7:41 am

Weak analysis. The problem is Europe, no matter what the US can or might do. Fracking bans. Halt to new North Sea gas field development. Lack of regasification facilities. Shutting coal and nuclear to become even more gas dependent backing ruinables.

And Tufts does not call the EU on their suicidal bent.

Brad-DXT
Reply to  Rud Istvan
February 4, 2022 9:30 am

The question is whether Europe has reached peak stupidity.
It’s a race between stupid policies and survival. One can hope that sanity will prevail soon before the populace suffers.

roaddog
Reply to  Rud Istvan
February 4, 2022 11:31 am

I’m all for letting the Europeans freeze. That would be an excellent object lesson for the rest of the Climate Nutters. Also quite pleased to see them push forward on hydrogen so they can demonstrate all the problems that will plague that endeavor.

bonbon
Reply to  roaddog
February 4, 2022 12:34 pm

And who are you to ‘let people freeze’ ? What kind of megalomania is this?

Richard Page
Reply to  roaddog
February 4, 2022 1:19 pm

Oh don’t start down that road before working out if the USA might be heading into the same insanity. California should be an object lesson for us all except it’s just somehow managing to scrape through.

Rud Istvan
Reply to  Richard Page
February 4, 2022 3:31 pm

By importing much of its electricity from states that are less nutty.

Ed Zuiderwijk
February 4, 2022 7:44 am

And that 1.7 T cubic feet of gas is the proven conventional reserve. While they even haven’t started fracking yet.

bonbon
Reply to  Ed Zuiderwijk
February 4, 2022 12:38 pm

Dutch Plan To Boost Gas Output At Earthquake-Prone Site Sparks Anger
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Dutch-Plan-To-Boost-Gas-Output-At-Earthquake-Prone-Site-Sparks-Anger.html

Anger not from consumers?

Rusty
February 4, 2022 7:45 am

What the Europeans don’t want the Chinese will buy.

Coach Springer
February 4, 2022 7:53 am

This analysis is starting with the presumption that Europe isn’t already in an energy crisis without Russian interference. Off to a shaky start there, overlooking a lot of factors and downplaying others. One of them the blaming of high U.S. prices on weather while downplaying the effect of Biden’s supply-side war. That is such a key thing to downplay here. Makes me wonder about a misinformation plant.

Bill Rocks
February 4, 2022 8:00 am

I appreciate your article but there seems to be a mistake in the following:

“In recent months, European imports of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, from the U.S. and elsewhere reached record levels at around 400 million cubic meters per day. To put that in perspective, a single LNG cargo ship can hold roughly 125,000-175,000 cubic meters of natural gas – enough energy to warm 17 million British homes for one winter day.”

This means that 2300 cargos of LNG are arriving each day? Not likely. Maybe you are comparing volume of gas at STP to volume of liquified gas during shipping? The difference is about 600x.

MJB
Reply to  Bill Rocks
February 4, 2022 8:29 am

I noticed the same thing, and made the same assumption as you, that the author was accidentally equating, or at least juxtaposing, the two in a confusing way. By my math an LNG cargo ship with 125,000 would be 75M cubic meters converted, so 4-5 ships per day depending on size.

bonbon
Reply to  MJB
February 4, 2022 12:39 pm

Maybe the ‘author’ flatulently meant LNG at room temp.?

The Dark Lord
February 4, 2022 8:04 am

While Europe’s shift to renewables will take time” … understatement of the century … Try “never” …

Richard Page
Reply to  The Dark Lord
February 4, 2022 9:01 am

The trouble is the time it takes for that realisation to sink in – in the meantime, a lot of damage is being done.

bonbon
Reply to  Richard Page
February 4, 2022 9:58 am

To voters wallets – you know, the bit that hurts….

Janice Moore
Reply to  The Dark Lord
February 4, 2022 10:46 am

Precisely, TDL.

Given, the current and reasonably likely for the foreseeable future technology for “Wind, solar, etc.” (see “Total Energy Supply chart above), Europe’s shift to “renewables” will never happen.

Last edited 3 months ago by Janice Moore
roaddog
Reply to  The Dark Lord
February 4, 2022 11:34 am

Its essential to recognize that as a population freezes to death, its energy requirements decline.

Richard Page
Reply to  roaddog
February 5, 2022 11:36 am

Hmm. Depends – there is often a sharp spike in energy used shortly after death but it’s only a brief occurrence!

Bruce Cobb
February 4, 2022 8:14 am

You make the bed you plan to lie in.

Peta of Newark
February 4, 2022 8:20 am

Quote:”Can the US find enough natural gas
Depends where they look – there’s enough gas just up the road from me to pay off the debt Boris ran up trashing the UK and all who shiver within her jurisdiction.
Just under one crappy little village.
Don’t need LNG or any much pipelines either

I do hope the ‘residents’ mentioned in this story are pleased with themselves now.
Welcome to The Planet Of Clowns

Richard Page
Reply to  Peta of Newark
February 4, 2022 9:10 am

No residents were arrested during the demonstration and very few residents were opposed to it. The ones that were arrested had been ferried in from Sheffield and Durham, you can bet that others had been bussed in from further afield. The protests are being organised at a national level, petitions are filled in all over the country and brought in to make it look like there’s more protest and, if that fails, they bus in a ‘rent-a-mob’. Don’t blame local residents for a highly organised national programme of opposition.

PCman999
Reply to  Richard Page
February 4, 2022 10:26 am

I think that’s why Peta wrote residents in single quotes, but to be fair, sarcasm is best expressed in double quotes: “residents”

Richard Page
Reply to  PCman999
February 4, 2022 12:03 pm

Oops – I see it now, missed it when I posted. On a positive note, it always helps to really spell it out for those who might not be aware!

Tom.1
February 4, 2022 8:22 am

The EU’s gas supply is not our problem, nor is the Ukraine.

MarkW
Reply to  Tom.1
February 4, 2022 9:08 am

Poland is not our problem, neither is France.

Tom.1
Reply to  MarkW
February 4, 2022 9:52 am

You have to draw the line somewhere.

Janice Moore
Reply to  Tom.1
February 4, 2022 10:50 am

Rational, prudent, moral, people draw a line based on principle and strategy, not by arbitrary “line drawing.”

Tom.1
Reply to  Janice Moore
February 4, 2022 11:46 am

You are attributing things to me which I did not say.

Janice Moore
Reply to  Tom.1
February 4, 2022 12:48 pm

Prove it.

MarkW
Reply to  Tom.1
February 4, 2022 10:56 am

We wait till they’re at our borders?

Rich Davis
Reply to  MarkW
February 4, 2022 3:56 pm

No, no. They can have Delaware as long as the Biden Crime Family are confined there

Rich Davis
Reply to  Tom.1
February 4, 2022 3:55 pm

Delaware

John Dilks
Reply to  MarkW
February 4, 2022 5:42 pm

Right. Our problem is Washington D.C.

bonbon
Reply to  Tom.1
February 4, 2022 10:00 am

The Ukraine’s problem is Victoria Nuland – from guess where.
US meddling with a London script is a circus indeed. Talk about a ridiculous theater!

pigs_in_space
Reply to  bonbon
February 4, 2022 10:33 am

Bonbon forgot the students the Russians shotin cold blood.
Now was that GRU, or FSB,or Berkut….let me think?

According to bonbon ukraine shot down MH17 also….

bonbon
Reply to  pigs_in_space
February 4, 2022 12:05 pm

Ye made that up from pig swill – cop on!

Richard Page
Reply to  pigs_in_space
February 4, 2022 12:11 pm

I don’t know for sure who shot down MH17 but, more importantly, neither did the official enquiry. I do wonder about the reason why the Ukraine apparently turned off every air search radar in the country, just for that 1 day though?

gringojay
Reply to  Richard Page
February 4, 2022 3:48 pm

MH17 (flight 330) was flying in an area of Ukraine covered by the kind of aviation radar that registers transponders. Before being struck by a missile MH17 was directed by Dnipropetrous Ukrainian air traffic control to vary it’s original flight plan somewhat southernly.

Ukrainian radar however did not and could not record 2 other ghosting planes (military planes hiding in the radar shadow of other planes) in the same sector because those were apparently flying with their transponders off. One if those was heading toward MH17 and the other one coming from behind which passed MH17.

Russian based radar is not reliant solely on transponders for registering airplane(s) movement in real time. Although the specific Russian radar details about the 2 planes ghosting along among commercial flights (more than MH17 was aloft in that sector) the Dutch investigating commission would not have anything to do with that offered up information. [Possibly because Russia did not want to disclose technical military secrets the investigators insisted as necessary to authenticate the Russian tracking of transponder-less foreign military planes and so that detail’s refusal by the Dutch commission led to it being ignored in the Western legend of MH17.]

pigs_in_space
Reply to  gringojay
February 4, 2022 7:53 pm

This is really scary!
WUWT really has Russian trolls posting crap.

I didn’t expect Anthony to permit that.

gringojay
Reply to  bonbon
February 4, 2022 11:40 am

“F… the EU” Nuland got the Ukraine government change her USA team promoted in 2014. Here’s how that worked out for Ukrainians’ annual household per capita income in US$ equivalents.

The per capita income in 2013 was equivalent to US$2,145; in 2014 = $1,785; 2015 = $1,109; 2016 = $1,135; 2017 = $1,427; 2018 = $1,6993; 2019 = $2,180; 2020 = $2,145 ; 2021 data is not yet posted in this same source [ceicdata dot com]. Which means before USA president Obama’s promotion of “color” revolutions Ukrainian per capita income was better and, like most places, there is inflation in Ukraine.

ED8A0A88-6376-4287-87A1-F962E0DA80C0.jpeg
bonbon
Reply to  gringojay
February 4, 2022 11:55 am

Exactly!

Mike Jonas(@egrey1)
Editor
Reply to  Tom.1
February 4, 2022 1:48 pm

When others are attacked you need to defend them. If they go under, you are next, and those others won’t be around to help you.

bonbon
Reply to  Mike Jonas
February 5, 2022 2:58 am

NATOstan Article 5 is the rule – that is why no country at war either internally or elsewhere can join – it would mean immediate mobilization.
Germany’s Basic Law forbids weapons to war zones. Both of these simple rules escape Kiev’s Nuland Brigades. They are barking up the wrong tree.

Sean
February 4, 2022 8:37 am

Is this question posed as a joke?

The problem in Europe is that they will not use hydraulic fracturing to develop their own resources. The UK has large reserves and absurd policies meant to make it impractical to develop. They have large storage facilities they’ve could use as a hedge that they’ve shut down. European gas shortages are a self-inflicted wound from the environmental lobby. The LNG the US and Qatar can deliver by ship is extraordinarily wasteful of energy. This is a manageable problem if the Europeans choose to fix it themselves.

Garboard
February 4, 2022 8:49 am

Freezing all the money Putin and his buds have stashed in londongrad might slow him down

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Garboard
February 4, 2022 8:56 am

Yes, but if you can read the story today in the WSJ on eastern Ukraine you will see Putin’s long game.

PCman999
February 4, 2022 9:10 am

Why is this the US’ problem? Why are the Europeans so green-washed that they think their own gas reserves have the green-cooties but it’s awesome to buy gas from Russia, the country they have sanctions against and has much less environmental protection. If they REALLY cared about the environment they would develop what resources they need from local sources (definitely not importing wood chips from across the ocean) which would be under their environmental protection laws. At least then they would be consistent and have some integrity. Germany, for example, list all integrity when it decided to close it’s perfectly good reactors and EXPAND its coal power plants. Anything it now says regarding the environment is political spin. Actions speak louder than words.

Dave Andrews
February 4, 2022 9:26 am

The article says Russia supplies about 40% of Europe’s gas. This masks the true situation for many of the countries in Europe and their dependence on Russia.

In 2020 Russia provided the following amounts of gas to Europe. (Countries marked with an * are members of the EU.)

Bosnia + Herzegovina 100%, N. Macedonia 100%, Moldova 100%, *Finland 94%, *Latvia 93%, Serbia 89%, *Estonia 79%, *Bulgaria 77%, *Slovakia 70%, Croatia 68%, *Czechia (Czech Republic) 66%, *Austria 64%, *Greece 51%, *Germany 49%, *Italy 46%, *Lithuania 41%, *Poland 40%, *Slovenia 40%, *France 24%, *Netherlands 11%, *Romania 10%, Georgia 6%.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/russian-gas-dependence-in-europe-by-country

bonbon
Reply to  Dave Andrews
February 4, 2022 10:02 am

Now they should settle in Euro’s not Dollars, and watch the sparks fly – oops, not good…

gringojay
Reply to  bonbon
February 4, 2022 10:51 am

Euros, it was announced, are what the newly agreed upon Russian gas sales to China will be paid for. I am not certain if that applies only to the compact for their new pipeline and annual long term gas volume they just formalized.

bonbon
Reply to  gringojay
February 4, 2022 11:56 am

Well, the London/US axis-of-trust-$us threaten a SWIFT sanction. Just imagine the blowback!

pigs_in_space
Reply to  Dave Andrews
February 4, 2022 10:36 am

*Estonia 79% is just ridiculous.

The EU have forbidden Est from using oil shale for generating electricity in the near future, forcing subsidies of wind (which often doesn’t blow,orblow too hard) and non existent solar.

The Estonian drive to unreliables is the perfect example of self harm, pushed along by some bully 1000s of kms away in Brussels.

bonbon
Reply to  pigs_in_space
February 4, 2022 12:07 pm

Estonia can buy gas from Russia, as Hungary is doing . Estonia as a London 5th column simply does not pay – see the Ukraine GDP.

pigs_in_space
Reply to  bonbon
February 4, 2022 7:55 pm

Estonia as a London 5th column?
Doesn’t pay?

WTF??
You are really patheticin your trolling!

Esti Gas is owned by Gazprom!

bonbon
Reply to  pigs_in_space
February 5, 2022 2:50 am

Weapons for Ukraine, blocked by Germany. Keep up to date!

Rich Davis
Reply to  pigs_in_space
February 4, 2022 4:00 pm

Estexit then?

bonbon
February 4, 2022 9:47 am

Russia and China sign major energy dealThe 30-year agreement will boost gas supplies by 10 billion cubic meters and will be settled in euros

https://www.rt.com/business/548304-russia-china-major-energy-deal/

And :
Orban of EU, NATO member Hungary thanks Putin for gas deal
Putin went on to say that Russia and Hungary had signed long-term contracts that would allow the EU nation to purchase discounted gas from Russia until 2036. He also reported that Hungary currently buys gas five times cheaper than the European market rate.

Now suck it up guys! Some are simply ordering, paying for and getting gas delivery, while others say trust $us!

D.C. is really looking like Rumpelstiltskin!

pigs_in_space
Reply to  bonbon
February 4, 2022 10:38 am

And Bonbon looks like the true Pro-Russia Shill he is.
When does his propaganda on here stop?

bonbon
Reply to  pigs_in_space
February 4, 2022 12:01 pm

Go ahead – censor.
It is a piggish thing to do, but quite fashionable!
Trust $us.

TonyG
Reply to  bonbon
February 4, 2022 2:11 pm

Who’s censoring? You’re still being allowed to post.

bonbon
Reply to  TonyG
February 5, 2022 3:14 am

Germany took down the RTD Satellite channel which is clearly censoring. Russia just pulled the plug on DW in Moscow in response.
Meanwhile Youtube et al are busy. Trump was sent to FaceBook jail, and Twitter oblivion.

AndyHce
Reply to  pigs_in_space
February 4, 2022 12:11 pm

Is anyone supposed to know what you are writing about? Are you saying the reports referenced are know to be untrue or are you just acting like most climate alarmist who refuse to deal in anything except name calling?

willem post
February 4, 2022 10:10 am

EXCERPT from:

THE UKRAINE PLOT IS THICKENING WITH GERMANY AND FRANCE NO LONGER IN LOCKSTEP WITH US/UK-LED NATO
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-plot-is-thickening-with-germany-and-france-no-longer-in
 
I wrote this article, because Russia-hating, extreme rightists in the US State Department and US Senate are leading the US into a shooting war with Russia, on European soil

I was living in the Netherlands during NAZI occupation.
Millions of European people, including my family, have vivid memories of war and the Holocaust.

NATO, a US/UK Handmaiden

NATO has a convenient policy, which states each sovereign country has a right to make its own security arrangements.
Russia is surrounded by sovereign countries, such as Kazakhstan, etc.
Does that mean all these countries are fair game for NATO color-revolution-style regime change?
If the NATO umbrella would spread to these countries, Russia would be isolated from many countries, except China.

The image shows, NATO expansion after the US Secretary of State, James Baker, oral pledge to Gorbachev, “not to advance one inch beyond East Germany”

gringojay
Reply to  willem post
February 4, 2022 11:05 am

image did not appear ….

MarkW
Reply to  willem post
February 4, 2022 11:23 am

And more from the paranoid Russophiles.

NATO has a convenient policy, which states each sovereign country has a right to make its own security arrangements.

How evil, how dare individual countries believe they have a right to make their own security arrangements, rather than have them dictated from Moscow.

If the NATO umbrella would spread to these countries, Russia would be isolated from many countries, except China.

Really now, belonging to NATO means one is hostile to Moscow? Really?

As to your claim about the state department being infested with extreme right wingers, do you actually live on the same planet as the rest of us? Or are you one of those people who believe that socialism is a right wing philosophy?

bonbon
Reply to  MarkW
February 4, 2022 12:03 pm

Not many live in in NATOstan – ‘The rest of us’ .

The NATOstan sect is passee!

Richard Page
Reply to  MarkW
February 4, 2022 12:25 pm

Interestingly enough, Putin asked if Russia could join NATO at one point, when the relationship with America was more cordial. He was refused. So the article is not true in that regard as well.

jeffery p
February 4, 2022 10:24 am

If the US and the EU didn’t have a bunch of pussies girly-men progressives in charge, we would all hit Russia with sanctions now and really tighten the screws if Putin invades.

gringojay
Reply to  jeffery p
February 4, 2022 11:03 am

@j.p. – Somehow I don’t think having one’s military anywhere inside it’s national borders is a reason to do what you suggest. By the way: those western media photos of supposedly Ukraine threatening Russian rows of massed motorized military equipment tellingly cut out the immediately surrounding extensive permanent soldier and maintenance barracks that exist as part of an established base.

MR166
February 4, 2022 10:46 am

How can the US supply future gas to anyone when Let’s go Brandon has taken steps to end fracking, rescinded oil and gas leases and ended the construction of the Keystone Pipeline. You tell me, who is Russia’s and China’s best friend?

Last edited 3 months ago by MR166
MS25
February 4, 2022 11:13 am

Another war party narrative.

Russia never threatened to use gas as a weapon and always fulfilled its commitments. It was always the western side threatening and sanctioning.

European industry and Russian resources are a perfect match, and cooperation is a no-brainer.

Only the US bully is against it, because closer ties between those two turns the US oligarchic power structure into a nothingburger. The US needs the Europeans to be able to wage all these wars & coups & illegal sanctions with millions of victims, distort global media & institutions without being held accountable.

MarkW
Reply to  MS25
February 4, 2022 11:49 am

It really is fascinating how socialists the world over are convinced that the US is the source of all evil.
If only the peaceful Soviets had been allowed to win the cold war, the would would be perfect by now.

gringojay
Reply to  MS25
February 4, 2022 2:47 pm

European nations have a genuine interest in Russian resources, like the best price for natural gas – both for households and industry. Lately rising cost of natural gas has impacted European production costs for nitrogen fertilizer and come spring this could become important for the European agriculture sector. Just this week Russia, which globally accounts for ~35% in global supply of ammonium nitrate fertilizer (nitrogen), has halted exports of that nitrogen fertilizer until it sees how it’s national demands are satisfied come spring – probably expanded food crop area cultivation is being considered.

Unlike it’s trade partners Russia has, as of December 2020 [as per ceicdata dot com] a low 17.7% of debt component in it’s nominal (domestic + external) GDP . In contrast it’s trade partners ratio [debt as % of GDP, as per same source standardized for Dec. 2020] is [was] surpassed by Turkey at 39.5%, Ukraine at 53.9%, Germany at 69.7%, France at 115.7%, Italy at 155.5%, and the USA at 132.5% (currently Russia supplies more oil to the USA than does Saudi Arabia); if the U.K. is a Russian trade partner I’ll mention their [2020] cipher was 104.5% debt in nominal GDP. Sorry, I don’t know if elsewhere 2021 percentages are out.

King Coal
February 4, 2022 11:36 am

The West should be more concerned with the latest 30 year deal just signed this week between Russia and China for gas supply! The East prosper, the West withers

bonbon
February 4, 2022 12:16 pm

For the information challenged, and humor vacant, here is :

Revolver Presents: Russia’s Other Top 6 Misinformation Narratives

https://www.revolver.news/2022/02/revolver-presents-top-6-russia-misinformation-narratives/

as for point number #3. Women don’t belong in combat.

Now that’s fact-checked!

2022.01.22-07.49-revolvernews-61ebb71fe5aea.jpg
Jeff Corbin
February 4, 2022 12:43 pm

There is plenty of NG via LNG from USA, Brazil LNG ports to loosen the Gazprom hold on central Europe. But isn’t this the crux of the issue with Russia and it’s annexation of Sevastopol  on the Black sea and it’s current long war with Ukraine and current saber rattling? LNG ports planned on the black sea where shut down after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014. Additionally, there is hesitancy to fully leverage NG resources in USA due to political leveraging to control the supply of NG globally via the false flag of climate change. Putin wants a pipeline to Western Europe through Ukraine…. he is going to get it…. one way or another. Putin who could care less about climate change, because he understands it as political leveraging towards the goal of market collusion to control NG supply. Finally, he will thwart LNG ports to access the emerging markets of central Asia. Putin wants Russia to be the next Saudi Arabia like cartel power in the world for hydrocarbon fuel and he is already there. His goal is to keep Western Hemisphere hydrocarbon fuel in the Western Hemisphere. And the goal of big energy is to let Putin set the supply and prices to continue to prop profits for generations to come. This is the operating subtext for everything happening in the world in concert with the corporate left’s clearly stated project to Reset Capitalism per the Russian and Chinese model of oligarchy and centrally controlled and colluded commodities markets. The rich will get richer and have more control of global mass of smart phone serfs, including us.

Jeff Corbin
Reply to  Jeff Corbin
February 4, 2022 1:08 pm

It’s time to partner with Canada and the South American countries to build the Hydrocarbon fuel infrastructure needed to power a 21st century industrial manufacturing powerhouse. If we don’t move fast, all that will be left in America will be 401K/ IRA money and health care and a population of Americans who think working is an obsolete affair for the less fortunate… this is a recipe for economic disaster. I don’t blame people for not wanting to work in a global gig economy for low pay and no benefits. We need manufacturing revolution now. We need to build the will, the know how and the desire to work for decent wages and benefits. Russia and China will industrial Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Russia by protecting it’s gas cow and industrializing and China by industrializing the East and central Europe… and south America. We are being beat to shreds in the emerging markets of the Europe and central Asia…. time for America turn off the phone and get to work.

Jeff Corbin
Reply to  Jeff Corbin
February 4, 2022 1:20 pm

Final note. Where will all the climate change activists be when the USA descends into the path of Venezuela and there not enough money to pay the electricity bill? It will be just like when the draft ended in 1974, and the hoard of activists turned into capitalistic YUPPIES. They’ll will be screaming for pipelines and more fracking. Or they will be screaming for the Next Gen BATTERY and decentralized power generation, storage and distribution to take a big bite out of the global energy cartel.

Last edited 3 months ago by Jeff Corbin
iflyjetzzz
February 4, 2022 1:21 pm

Let them burn coal.

Jeff Corbin
Reply to  iflyjetzzz
February 4, 2022 1:24 pm

Burn coal at home and export the NG to drive the price of oil to $20 just to watch Putin sweat.

Davis
February 4, 2022 2:00 pm

In a real honest to goodness war, I wouldn’t want to be on an LNG boat watching the torpedo heading my way…..

ChrisB
February 4, 2022 3:17 pm

What is missing from the entire discussion is death.

Putin will die tomorrow, either due to natural causes or due to a lead in the brain, what then?

All dictatorships end with the dictator.

Reply to  ChrisB
February 4, 2022 4:47 pm

Putin will die tomorrow
So will Soros
So will Pelosi
So will Buffet, Trump and Biden
Champagne makers – go long

Loren C. Wilson
February 4, 2022 4:11 pm

Perhaps a few European countries will start developing their own tight gas and have some independence or even a valuable commodity to export. This would require them to use hydraulic fracturing, which many leaders in Europe have promised not to do. Much smarter for them to have allowed it while claiming that the tight regulations would prevent any environmental impact. But, alas.

February 4, 2022 4:40 pm

Can Russia find enough natural gas sources to neutralize the US’s energy leverage over europe?

dk_
February 4, 2022 6:11 pm

prospect of conflict between Russia and NATO countries over Ukraine

Seems like the prospect is only taking place in the demented mind of our dear diapered leader, or possibly the alleged minds of his handlers. Nato doesn’t want it, Ukraine doesn’t believe in it, and Russia already has agents in place in Ukraine’s government to make invasion unnecessary. Biden’s already paid to take a dive in the first round, so if it all works as a distraction, it is all to the good.

Germany wants fuel to cover up their “renewable” and anti-nuclear blunder. No one in Nato did anything but scream loudly and look for payouts over Crimea. There’s plenty of fuel underground in the North Sea and under German, Dutch, and Polish territory, if only they would frack for it.

If Ukraine asked for help, I would change my mind. Ukraine asked the U.S. to stop talking up this Russia nonsense. But Biden and Boris, and their politically entwined intelligence agencies, are hopelessly corrupt and this looks more like a client media non-event.

Joe is too senile to tell the difference between Kiev and Kabul. After the latter, no one will give him any credibility about the former.

Last edited 3 months ago by dk_
Bill Rocks
Reply to  dk_
February 5, 2022 5:26 am

“There’s plenty of fuel underground in the North Sea and under German, Dutch, and Polish territory, if only they would frack for it.”

There is more resource to be developed but whether there is “plenty” and whatever that means is uncertain, at best.

Jeff Alberts
February 4, 2022 6:44 pm

“Can the US find enough natural gas sources to neutralize Russia’s energy leverage over Europe?”
Don’t know. But if we embraced nuclear, it wouldn’t matter.

Kiwi Gary
February 4, 2022 10:32 pm

Russia is already working hard to diversify its customer base. I understand that a pipeline to Pakistan is signed up, a repeat of the Power of Siberia via Mongolia is close to signature, and India is showing considerable interest. If those come off, then Gazprom will no longer need its European customers according to the latest flow charts that I have seen published.

Vincent Causey
February 5, 2022 1:02 am

Isn’t the Russia thing all just propaganda? I mean, take the phrase “Putins sabre rattling over gas”. I assume this statement is supposed to mean that Putin has threatened to restrict gas supplies, in violation of contracted agreements. If truth be told, neither he, nor any official has ever made such a threat. In fact, they have consistently stated that all gas contracts will be honoured.

What is this all about then? Well, obviously, for the US, getting Europe fully dependent on US Lng is a great business idea. For both the UK and the US, driving a wedge between Russia and Germany is another good idea. But the interesting thing about propaganda is that it often conveys the opposite of reality. Another good piece of propaganda currently in vogue is that Russia is threatening to invade Ukraine. The fact that no such threat has been made is simply brushed aside. Any denials of these threats by Russia is also brushed aside as misinformation. Any questioning of the logic for Russia to get bogged down in a brutal bloody war in Ukraine, or the logic of having to pay pensions and all manner of other Ukrainian costs is also brushed aside. The whole thing would be risible if the consequence wasn’t so dangerous.

Reply to  Vincent Causey
February 5, 2022 9:50 am

For both the UK and the US, driving a wedge between Russia and Germany is another good idea.

Everything that the UK and US do and say drive Germany and Russia closer together.
They’re going to wake up one morning and find out that Germany is Russia.

John
February 7, 2022 10:19 pm

Well, I’m not sure how realistic Russia shutting off gas exports is. Keep in mind, at the height of the Soviet Union, gas was still exported.

The real reality is that western sanctions can be made to look a little silly if sanctions are put in place, but you still need to buy gas from Russia. Is that a having your cake and eating it moment?

Russia can find other markets for its gas anyway. The only thing Europe can expect is ever higher prices.

Not just that, but it seems the further east you go, the less people are worried about a Russian invasion, bizarrely.

Could this latest round of Russian phobia actually be because they sold more gas to China, which decreased the amount on the spot market, which Europeans liked to use?

PtownPt
February 10, 2022 10:24 am

Unlike Amy, Economist Michael Hudson sees a different future for Europeans which the US is desperately trying to prevent. “The threat to U.S. dominance is that China, Russia and Mackinder’s Eurasian World Island heartland are offering better trade and investment opportunities than are available from the United States with its increasingly desperate demand for sacrifices from its NATO and other allies”. The emerging reality is the economic and energy future of Europe lies to the east with the far larger economic and energy synergies of Russia, China and Eurasia  
 
https://michael-hudson.com/2022/02/americas-real-adversaries-are-its-european-and-other-allies/

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