Guest essay by Eric Worrall
According to the AGU, a massive surge in demand for air conditioning could overload the grid in the next decade.
US household air conditioning use could exceed electric capacity in next decade due to climate change
Climate change will drive an increase in summer air conditioning use in the United States likely to cause prolonged blackouts during peak summer heat if states do not expand capacity or improve efficiency, according to a new study of household-level demand.
The study projected summertime usage as global temperature rises 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) or 2.0 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels, finding demand in the United States overall could rise 8% at the lower and 13% at the higher threshold. The new study was published in Earth’s Future, AGU’s journal for interdisciplinary research on the past, present and future of our planet and its inhabitants.
Human emissions have put the global climate on a trajectory to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming by the early 2030s, the IPCC reported in its 2021 assessment. Without significant mitigation, global temperatures will likely exceed the 2.0-degree-Celsius threshold by the end of the century.
…
Technological improvements in the efficiency of home air conditioning appliances could supply the additional cooling needed to achieve current comfort levels after 2.0 degrees global temperature rise without increased demand for electricity, the new study found. Increased efficiency of 1% to 8% would be required, depending on existing state standards and the expected demand increase, with Arkansas, Louisiana and Oklahoma on the high end.
“It’s a pretty clear warning to all of us that we can’t keep doing what we are doing or our energy system will break down in the next few decades, simply because of the summertime air conditioning,” said Susanne Benz, a geographer and climate scientist at Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia, who was not involved in the new study.
…
Read more: https://phys.org/news/2022-02-household-air-conditioning-electric-capacity.html
The abstract of the study;
Implications of Increasing Household Air Conditioning Use Across the United States Under a Warming Climate
Renee Obringer, Roshanak Nateghi, Debora Maia-Silva, Sayanti Mukherjee, Vineeth CR, Douglas Brent McRoberts, Rohini Kumar
First published: 29 December
Abstract
Soaring temperatures and increased occurrence of heatwaves have drastically increased air-conditioning demand, a trend that will likely continue into the future. Yet, the impact of anthropogenic warming on household air conditioning is largely unaccounted for in the operation and planning of energy grids. Here, by leveraging the state-of-the-art in machine learning and climate model projections, we find substantial increases in future residential air conditioning demand across the U.S.—up to 8% with a range of 5%–8.5% (13% with a range of 11%–15%) after anthropogenic warming of 1.5°C (2.0°C) in global mean temperature. To offset this climate-induced demand, an increase in the efficiency of air conditioners by as much as 8% (±4.5%) compared to current levels is needed; without this daunting technological effort, we estimate that some states will face supply inadequacies of up to 75 million “household-days” (i.e., nearly half a month per average current household) without air conditioning in a 2.0°C warmer world. In the absence of effective climate mitigation and technological adaptation strategies, the U.S. will face substantial increases in air conditioning demand and, in the event of supply inadequacies, there is increased risk of leaving millions without access to space cooling during extreme temperatures.
Read more: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021EF002434
Naturally the study uses RCP 8.5.
I think there will be a surge in energy use, which might create serious pressure on the grid. Not because temperatures will suddenly soar to ridiculous extremes, but because the AI / home robot / technology revolution will send our energy demand through the roof.
Either way, one thing for sure – luxury virtue signalling non solutions like renewables have no place in a world of skyrocketing demand for reliable energy.
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The way it’s going in the UK, charging my shaver could overload the grid in 2030.
R-H. If we simply turn off all those computers, modeling climate, you would have enough energy to charge you razor. Then, clean shaven, we could go to work dismantling the massively subsidized EV Vehicle market. Voila now we save your telly, toaster, fridge and your microwave. We could even throw in a dishwasher for good measure.
And if we quit subsidizing “scientists” to lie to us, we’d likely balance the budget as well. Last I looked the “middle of the road” climate model (or, more accurately, fantasy) over projected warming by 500 to 600%.
Considering that most houses already have some form of Electric A/C (window unit or Central A/C) the only real additional demand will come from New Developments. A/C will have little impact on Grid Supply in the next 1/4 century. Government mandates though WILL over-tax the grid with mandated…
Electric Heating
Electric Cooking
Electric Water Heaters
Electric Vehicles
Electric Busses
Electric Trains
Electric Airplanes
Electric Trucks
And Electric Boats
This will cause a minimum 300% increase in Grid Demand and likely more than a 500% – 1000% increase without any of the minimal increase in A/C loads factored in for the DRASTIC 0.2C temp increase likely by 2030.
Considering that most buildings currently have air conditioning, either window mounted, Central Air or Swamp Coolers, any appreciable Air Conditioning load increase would need to come from New construction. To have an affect on Grid Capacity from AC loading it would require a minimum 50% increase in Air Conditioned building construction as AC units are far more efficient today than they were 20 years ago.
What will have a negative effect on Grid Capacity is the electrification of all current non electric energy requirements like
Heating
Cooking
Hot Water
Autos
Busses
Trucks
Shipping
Airlines
Taking natural gas, gasoline and diesel energy out of service will require more than 1000% increase in Grid Capacity by 2030. Any potential Air Conditioning load increases are meaningless compared to the demands of government mandated electrification
Apologies for the nearly duplicated post BUT the first one vanished into moderation 5 hours ago
Let me correct the story that you have being sold;
“Last I looked the “middle of the road” climate model (or, more accurately, fantasy) over predict warming by 500 to 600%.”
(assuming that by “climate model” you mean GCM simulations)
Warning: GCMs do not do predictions of climate.
When it comes to GCM results, these are projections, projections of optimal thermal swing of the atmosphere in correlation with the optimal CO2 atmospheric concentration swing.
So in line with this particular given explanation of GCM projections, the story line shall be described as something like;
“Last I looked the “middle of the road” and any other climate model (or, more accurately, the GCMs results) down project the optimal climatic warming by
300 to 400%.”
(and also over project the optimal CO2 atmospheric concentration variation
by ~200%)
According to paleo climate data, the optimal climatic warming stands at 8-12C.
And
The optimal CO2 atmospheric concentration variation stands at ~100ppm.
cheers
There is bit of concern about all those EVs at No.11 Drowning (s/c) Street. Apparently 25% of all newly sold cars in the UK have a charging plug/socket, and such are free of the road tax charges, depriving Her Majesty’s treasury of many millions of pounds, soon to grow into billions.
Not a problem…it’s all good…the Great Green UK Experiment is for the World.
No problem.
That’s what Autobahn Maut and GPS milage registration is for. As soon as EVs become affordable to plebs, toll will be implemented to exploit the new tax resourse.
Pretty sure you overloaded the grid just by posting this comment. 😉
“state-of-the-art machine learning and climate model projections”. So does that make everything official now?
“Human emissions have put the global climate on a trajectory to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming by the early 2030s, the IPCC reported in its 2021 assessment. Without significant mitigation, global temperatures will likely exceed the 2.0-degree-Celsius threshold by the end of the century. ”
It’s a over a degree, according to GISS LOTI about 1.2 since the late 19th C. If it warms 0.3°C per decade, it will be well over 4 by the end of the century.
Why does it read as if scribbled during a liquid lunch with a brief to provide “scientific proof” that climate change is the bogey man when climate change policies screw up the grid?
As I understand it, the world is claimed to have warmed ~ 1C from the industrial revolution up to about the 1950s.
So, in terms of extra aircon required since the 1950s (when hardly anyone had aircon), we’re only going to have to install enough to handle 0.5C extra temp.
(That’s my take on this, and why I’m not mothballing my aircon)
The warmest point in the satellite era is 2016, whose highest temperature was supposedly 1.1C above the baseline.
The current temperatures are 0.7C cooler than 2016. So that nasty 1.5C above the baseline, alarmist tipping point is getting farther away, not closer.
or allow the indoor temp to increase 0.5C. I suspect we could learn to adjust to that, though it might be simpler to build a few nuclear power plants.
I believe the 1.5 was drawn from a hat. The important media message is that “We’re all going to die.”
The real message was, “Give us all your money”.
Seems so. It looks like settled science.
Lipstick on a pig.
Garbage-in, garbage-out.
What’s the current turn of phrase surrounding the Covid frenzy and the OmyGod variant, mass psychosis formation?
All the old saws apply.
Yep, here in Britain the temperature could fall and we would still be chronically, pathetically short of grid energy due to Net Zero policies. Why? Under Ner Zero, the electrification of cars and household heating will lead to a 5 to 10 times increase in domestic electricity use (certainly by 2050), contemporaneous with the removal of all but intermittent renewables and a sliver of nuclear as power sources. Oh and the odd interconnector from Europe on the rare occasions that they can spare the juice. Just where the hell do they think all this electricity is going to come from? The maths is so bad that you couldn’t make it up – but the government ploughs on regardless, with “more renewables needed” the battle cry to avoid power cuts.
Beam me up Scotty!
“Beam me up Scotty! No sign of intelligent life down here.”
FIFY
In the next DECADE??
With temps creeping up at 1.5 degrees C per 120 years, per NOAA? This headline is hogwash.
From 1850 to 2032 is 182 years, not 120 yrs.
Nobody in a non-laboratory setting can measure atmospheric temperatures to such a precision level … ie, to 8 thousandths of a deg C per year, or 8 hundredths of a degree C per decade.
Duane, I have a question for you. I very much believe the homogenization of the temperature of the entire planet to a single number is, in a practical sense nonsensical. Have I got hold of anything of substance there? Much appreciated.
Let’s put it this way. If you measured every Clydesdale horse to the nearest inch and every Shetland pony to the nearest inch and then converted their growth rates to anomalies and then averaged them, exactly what would you make of the mean?
It would either be a Shetsdale or a Clydeland.
An very hairy average sized horse with big strong legs.
It would be a Shite-load
I do so badly want a pony. I’ll be training him to pull a cart, quite useful once the Biden destruction of the energy supply chain is complete.
Get a donkey instead.
“Nobody in a non-laboratory setting can measure atmospheric temperatures to such a precision level” I also know it very hard to achieve that kind of precision. To bad the rest of the world does not.
Climate “Science” is performed exclusively on computers by people with no training in Physical Sciences or Engineering.
“This headline is hogwash.”
Doesn’t matter. It has achieved its desired goal. Now people will be screaming about this for years.
Total crap. The grid is in no danger from “climate change”. It is, however, in danger from climate change hysteria and the idiotic energy policies resulting from that.
I’ve always believed the most dangerous people are the ones trying to save us. No, I don’t mean the Jehovah’s witness at your door is dangerous. But people whose identity rests upon a crusade to save the world are capable of anything.
“But people whose identity rests upon a crusade to save the world are capable of anything.”
Rarely anything good.
Nonsense, of course, and even if there was any validity to it, wouldn’t the increase in home A/C due to people working out of the house be offset by the empty offices that don’t have to be cooled?
And less heat from ICE vehicles. And less need for more asphalt or concrete roads and parking lots (that’s American for car park).
Dave, that brings to mind something we haven’t touched on in these comments, which is the new breed of programmable thermostats. Certainly, when properly programmed they should reduce energy consumption.
Mother got a new oil-burning furnace last Friday, to replace a beast that had trudged honorably along for 60 years. I don’t think I’m far out on a limb suspecting the new unit will be more efficient than its predecessor. Every day replacements and upgrades like that occur all across the First World, but modeling it would probably approach the complexity of factoring the influence of clouds into climate models. LOL
Swinging a much broader brush, I find it hard to take seriously major corporations that have climbed onto the Climate Nutter bandwagon with all 4 feet (standard equipment on all donkeys) but maintain whole fleets of 20 to 50 story office buildings where all floors are completely illuminated 24/7.
Funny here in Arizona every furnace I replaced was going to be cheaper to run that the Freon 12 models and the Freon free models after that. Not true, each model consumes more. Getting the last once of energy out of fuel works on heating, using less efficient coolants for air conditioning does not. Global warm due to CO2 is a farce, so was Freon causing the Ozone hole. All are just methods to fleece the working man.
Even the IPCC is only claiming about 0.17C per decade. Now these guys are claiming that we are going to see 1.5 to 2C in just 8 years?
If you are going to lie, why not claim temperatures will go up by 10 to 20C? Lets make the number actually scary.
BTW, 2C is going to break the grid? I guess it’s possible considering how much renewable power they are forcing on us.
They’re using the claimed 1.#C warming till now plus >0.2C per decade. The other assumption is that we’ll reach CO2 emissions sufficient to increase the mean temperature but it would take several decades after for the mean temperature to reach the new equilibrium. In terms of aircon power use, YMMV.
Hot days in Western Sydney have our aircon running at maximum, hotter days doesn’t increase daytime power usage but instead they increase the inside temp above 27C. Our aircon will then use more power overnight & we try to cool the house below 22C before the sunrises again for a new day.
Many people have older aircons with lower efficiency than newer models, so there is capacity to increase output by replacing those old models in the future.
Some people choose to stay with family or hang out at shops/cinema to avoid a hot house. More of us could plan for extreme weather & limited grid capacity (or high cost) by moving in with neighbours for a few days during blizzards/heatwaves. Hot air rises so it’s colder downstairs & warmer upstairs. People produce ~70w heat asleep & ~100w when watching TV.
“Many people have older aircons with lower efficiency than newer models,” Here in the Valley of the Sun all the new models were not more efficient, Every one cost more to buy and to run.
2C is going to break the grid? I guess it’s possible considering how much renewable power they are forcing on us.
That’s the idea – get the excuses ready now.
The green blob wants to convert all modes of transportation from fossil fuels to electric, and we’re worried about a minimal to nonexistent increase in electricity use due to air conditioning? Madness…
Absurd on its face. ‘Leveraging AI and climate models’ to predict AC crashes the grid by 2030.
Temperatures are not soaring and heat waves are not increasing.
And, at climate.Copernicus.eu on page one they have a nifty plot of the CMIP6 ensemble global average temperatures. SSPS8.5 is about 14.8C in 2020 and about 15.2C about 2035. A difference of about 0.4C over a longer time period than this ‘study’ IS NOT going to crash a grid designed with 10-15% spare peak capacity.
Another stupid projection that cause ridicule when 2030 comes aroung.
Maybe the unstated assumption is that the grid will be supported only by unreliable ‘renewables’ and everyone will be buying EVs’. Then, every Watt will count!
If the grid fails it will be from electric cars, forcing people to go “electric “,and trying to depend on wind and solar. They will blame it on the air conditioners.
Same expensive stupidity the Marxist idiots keep trying to force on us.
The Ensteins at AGU did not address the increasing number of electric vehicles that also increase the drain on the grid.
They went woke, not Einstein.
Remember that AGU had Peter Gleick (forger, fraudster, liar, scamster) on their Professional Ethics Panel at the time his deception about Heartland Institute was exposed.
And they kept him on the panel – without comment or censure.
BTW, why is American GEOPHYSICAL Union publishing such tripe totally unrelated to Earth science?
It is due to the Urban Heat Island Effect.
Quit building in dense configurations. The big cities did it to themselves…
Brad, I think it’s the UHI that enables the global warming hoax. The models and data adjustment underestimate (seriously underestimate, in fact) the effects of UHI.
Yep not only does it cost in UHI but in a large fire, the house light up one after another right down the roll. Yet the idiots blame the fires on climate change. Ten feet apart is to close, in a fire condition a hundred is only safe, funny my childhood home meet that 100 ft condition.
Exactly what we just saw in Boulder and now 1,000 homes gone. Its not Climate Change, its horrible zoning regulations and complete absence of fire mitigation.
I have done an analysis of Urban Heat Islands (UHIs) for several cities: New York, Washington D.C., Vancouver, Minneapolis, St. Louis, Portland, Philadelphia, Baltimore and several more. You might find it interesting. Not surprisingly, UHIs are highly variable. Airports are some of the UHI hot spots, where many NOAA weather stations are located. My maps show some of the NOAA weather stations inside the UHI. Also, not all UHIs are getting warmer over the last 10 to 20 years.
The web site is, http://www.urbanhi.net
Just make everyone upgrade to a 25 SEER.
Sorry my personal experience shows those ratting are a joke.
What crap, go to florida, example of 96f and 100% humidity. It is like that from march to sept/oct and has been since the beginning. It can not get more oppressive and it is a limiting condition. A/C makes it possible to be a useful economy. Before a/c it was for migrating snowbirds or beach huts.
Net zero will turn the world back to a bunch of homeless nomads migrating with the seasons.
They can pick up extra income picking fruit and vegetables as they migrate with the seasons.
Ah, finally those Green Jobs Obama promised.
@Devils…
Forida is not all 96* and high humidity all the time , and we in the Panhandle have actual four seasons plus freezes in December, January and February. A better example is New Orleans where I grew up.
You must talk with folks my age – 70 to 90 years old. In the 50’s we saw 95 deg all the time in summer, but rarely below 35 deg in winter. Air conditioning was something for department stores and a few groceries. We only had two homes on my street with window units, and the rest of us had whole house fans. Guess what? We all survived and went on and prospered.
Mankind evolved in very warm climates ( not weather) and did just fine as it populated the world in very cold climates/weather as well in warm, tropical conditions.
I have to see the data, i.e. records, of the pain and misery of a population that was forced to endure an increase of 1 degree in average temperature within 50 years.
Gums wonders…
Sorry live in Arizona, been in Florida in July. It may be humid but it not like stepping in 110 + temps period. The panhandle it is nice in the summer on can actually be outside midday.
Idiocy. The temperature rise over the next decade, if anything at all, will be minuscule if measurable at all.
Given that air conditioners only last about 10-15 years, and that new units replacing old units are significantly more energy efficient, the greater probability is that electrical energy consumption due to AC use will decrease, not increase.
Now Duane, there is no such thing as continuous improvement.
To paraphrase Dirty Harry, an air conditioner has to know its limits. One-hundred percent efficiency is not obtainable. Almost all systems have an efficiency or cost curve characterized by a region of decreased rate of improvement, asymptotically approaching the theoretical limit.
Which doesn’t stop us trying. In similar fashion, an excerpt from the old Native American chief who accompanied Josey Wales, “Endeavor to persevere.”
That was the funniest movie Clint ever made. Will always be a classic.
“I notice that when you get to disliking people they aren’t around for too long either”.
Yes, there was some fantastic very dry humor in that one.
However, it is a fool’s errand to try to achieve more than is possible. It is also not rational to invest a lot of money to try to improve efficiency once the point of diminishing returns is reached.
Every AC unit that I have ever owned or used has lasted well past 10 to 15 years.
The current unit is over 30 years.
Believe me the next one is going to cost more to run, been there done that.
Often it is more economical to keep something that is old and inefficient rather than pay the up front cost to replace it. One has to take into account the amortization of the replacement cost when the cost of operation is calculated.
No Problem-o: everybody can just get into their electric vehicle and turn on the air conditioning if they feel too hot.
you should insert a picture of AOC next to the pair of asses
not to worry, rolling black outs to the rescue.
“as global temperature rises 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) or 2.0 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels, finding demand in the United States overall could rise 8% at the lower and 13% at the higher threshold.”
duh! let’s see, it’s slightly warmer so we’ll increase our AC from 8-13%??? And this was published by a science organization and not the Sierra Club? What are they tripping on? More people have AC every year thanks to the price for air conditioners getting cheaper every year- so maybe total power needs for AC goes up, but not do the climate change- but now that Biden wants to wipe out cheap energy- more people will go into poverty and do without AC- not the wealthy of course
AGU has no restrictions on membership. They will even allow Sierra Club members to join.
I’m reminded of the joke by Groucho Marx: “I wouldn’t want to belong to any club that would have me as a member.”
They used RCP 8.5 which Roger Pielke jnr has completely debunked and Zeke Hausfather said was being “misused” by climate scientists. Even the BBC has acknowledged it is “exceedingly unlikely” and ” no longer plausible”
Yet they continue to trot the rubbish out
we’re all drowning in a sea of climate bullshit- I’d draw it as a cartoon if I could better than a 3 year old, but I can’t- it was better half a century ago when all we had to think about was WWIII- at least that was a “clear and present danger”- though of course it was exagerated too- good for the military industrial complex and something to yap about by politicians- we must be ever vigilant against this nonsense
it wouldn’t break down if we stayed with fossil fuels and nuclear- only with wind/solar, it probably will- it sounds like she understands this all too well
“leveraging the state-of-the-art in machine learning and climate model projections, we find substantial increases in future residential air conditioning demand across the U.S.”
wow, I wonder if those fancy methods understand that more people can afford them- and more people have moved to warm regions- nah, too stupid for that
Some of us have moved to a warmer climate in order to get away from that terrible global warming up north (see recent low temperatures there for examples of “global warming”.) Think of the savings in energy and CO2 emissions as we no longer have to heat up north!
Yes it was cold here in Arizona yesterday, a high of about 60, that beats the hell out of the high of -7 were I use to live. I would have to live over a billion to see winter temps even close to an average of 68F in Fargo North Dakota in February.
Yes, GITMO should really be in FARGO.
It’s state of the art rubbish
And what a sorry state the modelling art is in
To err is human
To really F things up, requires a computer
Not according to Barack Obama.
Although I assume the WH comes equipped with a PC.
Barama’s first ACA website dramatically verified Mark’s claim.
Huh, I wonder what the load from a couple million new electric vehicles would do to the grid? It would be nice if these fools worked on that problem too. Go nuclear or go home kids…
Salute James!
you hit the biggie.
even with current (no pun intended) grid capacity, the influx of zillions of EV autos will overload the grid.
we ain’t even counting the zillions to enhance our infrastructure…..bigger cables to the neighborhoods, new junction boxes on our house or apartment garage, and the beat goes on.
Gums sends…
Yeah; forget the air conditioning. EV’s will introduce a far larger load on capacity if acceptance rates increase if or when battery prices drop.
Nonsense. The big expansion of air-conditioning in the US was in the 1960’s and 70’s. According to consensus climastrology, most of the warming will be in extra-tropical regions in the form of higher daily minimum temperatures, which will have minimal impact on A/C demand. Any resulting increased A/C demand will be more than offset by increased efficiency as older units are upgraded.
Meanwhile, nothing said about increased demand from EVs or bitcoin mining.
The newer units are not more efficient, my most efficient I owned in Arizona was my first. It was over 30 years old, guess what the new ones only last ten years and cost more to run.
Mal:
We had a different experience here in Mesa, AZ.
Our SEER 9 unit died [after 15 years] and the new SEER 14 unit
lowered our summer electric bill by > $200/month. But how
reliable remains to be seen.
What’s the multiplier effect of RCP 8.5 on the pub mill and academic advancement via models? I would say a multiplier of 8.0 but that might be too low.
I know this is a bit circular, but there’s really nothing much going on here.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/02/03/uah-global-temperature-update-for-january-2022-0-03-deg-c/