From Dr. Roy Spencer’s Weather Blog
February 2nd, 2022 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for January, 2022 was +0.03 deg. C, down from the December, 2021 value of +0.21 deg. C.
The linear warming trend since January, 1979 now stands at +0.13 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).
Various regional LT departures from the 30-year (1991-2020) average for the last 13 months are:
YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPIC USA48 ARCTIC AUST
2021 01 0.12 0.34 -0.09 -0.08 0.36 0.50 -0.52
2021 02 0.20 0.32 0.08 -0.14 -0.65 0.07 -0.27
2021 03 -0.01 0.13 -0.14 -0.29 0.59 -0.78 -0.79
2021 04 -0.05 0.05 -0.15 -0.28 -0.02 0.02 0.29
2021 05 0.08 0.14 0.03 0.06 -0.41 -0.04 0.02
2021 06 -0.01 0.31 -0.32 -0.14 1.44 0.63 -0.76
2021 07 0.20 0.33 0.07 0.13 0.58 0.43 0.80
2021 08 0.17 0.27 0.08 0.07 0.33 0.83 -0.02
2021 09 0.25 0.18 0.33 0.09 0.67 0.02 0.37
2021 10 0.37 0.46 0.27 0.33 0.84 0.63 0.06
2021 11 0.08 0.11 0.06 0.14 0.50 -0.42 -0.29
2021 12 0.21 0.27 0.15 0.03 1.63 0.01 -0.06
2022 01 0.03 0.06 0.00 -0.24 -0.13 0.68 0.09
The full UAH Global Temperature Report, along with the LT global gridpoint anomaly image for January, 2022 should be available within the next several days here.
The global and regional monthly anomalies for the various atmospheric layers we monitor should be available in the next few days at the following locations:
Lower Troposphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt
Mid-Troposphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tmt/uahncdc_mt_6.0.txt
Tropopause: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/ttp/uahncdc_tp_6.0.txt
Lower Stratosphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tls/uahncdc_ls_6.0.txt
Well, all I can say is where I live in Finland it was -23c 2 days ago , -16c yesterday, -7 today and 30 cm snow, -1 in a few days. Normal stuff. Wtf is 1/10th of 1c in 10 years difference going to do? We often have 30c difference in temps within 36 hours.
A better way to look at the satellite data is to select the data set that minimizes the Urban Heat Island Effect, Water Vapor and Albedo. To do that, download the South Pole Data and chart each month. What you will find is there has been no warming since the start of the data set. Now, how can CO2 increase 25 to 30% and yet have no impact on temperatures? What then is causing the warming? The only thing that warms the oceans. That is VISIBLE Radiation, not LWIR. Do we have evidence more warming visible radiation is reaching the oceans? You bet. Cloud cover has been decreasing over the oceans explaining the warming of the oceans, and that has nothing to do with CO2. Nothing.
What does the zero line represent? Is that the temperature from “preindustrial time”?
The IPPC’s stated goal (speaking for all of humanity, of course) is for mankind to limit global warming to 1.5 °C or less global temperature increase above “pre-industrial times”. In turn, the IPCC defines “pre-industrial times” to be the period of 1850-1900. (Ref: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2018/12/SR15_FAQ_Low_Res.pdf ).
Interestingly, the IPCC apparently goes out of its way to avoid stating what the absolute global temperature was at any time in the period of 1850-1900.
Furthermore, the IPCC’s timeframe for limiting the 1.5 °C increase is given variously, and confusingly, as “in the next several decades”, “by 2040”, “by 2050”, and “by the end of this century”. What’s one to make of this?
Anyway, the global temperature for 1850-1890 has been independently stated to be “roughly 13.6 °C” (ref: https://history.aip.org/climate/timeline.htm ) whereas the global temperature for 1880 to 1900 has been independently stated to be 13.7 °C (ref: https://www.currentresults.com/Environment-Facts/changes-in-earth-temperature.php ).
The 2020 global surface temperature (averaged across land and ocean) was 1.2 °C (2.1 °F) warmer than the pre-industrial period (1880-1900) (ref: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature ).
Dr. Spencer’s data presented in the above article leads to a linearized global (i.e., land and sea) warming trend of +0.13 C/decade averaged over the last 43 years. Therefore, combining the foregoing data, we can reasonably predict that the point of reaching 1.5 °C of warming from “pre-industrial times” might occur in (1.5-1.2)/0.13 = 2.3 decades from 2020, or equivalently around year 2043.
While there is absolutely NOTHING mankind can do to change the trend revealed by Dr. Spencer’s analysis of UAH satellite-based global temperature data in, say, the next 20 years, I am confident that a current confluence of natural factors will be resulting in global cooling actually occurring over the next century or so.
In fact, the transition from long-term global warming to long-term global cooling might be revealed in the article’s graph of UAH satellite data for the interval of 2017-2021.
Let’s stay tuned! . . . next little ice age, here we (may) come.
The IPPC’s stated goal (speaking for all of humanity, of course) is for mankind to limit global warming to 1.5 °C or less global temperature increase above “pre-industrial times”. In turn, the IPCC defines “pre-industrial times” to be the period of 1850-1900. (Ref: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2018/12/SR15_FAQ_Low_Res.pdf ).
Interestingly, the IPCC apparently goes out of its way to avoid stating what the absolute global temperature was at any time in the period of 1850-1900.
Furthermore, the IPCC’s timeframe for limiting the 1.5 °C increase is given variously, and confusingly, as “in the next several decades”, “by 2040”, “by 2050”, and “by the end of this century”. What’s one to make of this?
Anyway, the global temperature for 1850-1890 has been independently stated to be “roughly 13.6 °C” (ref: https://history.aip.org/climate/timeline.htm ) whereas the global temperature for 1880 to 1900 has been independently stated to be 13.7 °C (ref: https://www.currentresults.com/Environment-Facts/changes-in-earth-temperature.php ).
The 2020 global surface temperature (averaged across land and ocean) was 1.2 °C (2.1 °F) warmer than the pre-industrial period (1880-1900) (ref: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature ).
Dr. Spencer’s data presented in the above article leads to a linearized global (i.e., land and sea) warming trend of +0.13 C/decade averaged over the last 43 years. Therefore, combining the foregoing data, we can reasonably predict that the point of reaching 1.5 °C of warming from “pre-industrial times” might occur in (1.5-1.2)/0.13 = 2.3 decades from 2020, or equivalently around year 2043.
While there is absolutely NOTHING mankind can do to change the trend revealed by Dr. Spencer’s analysis of UAH satellite-based global temperature data in, say, the next 20 years, I am confident that a current confluence of natural factors will be resulting in global cooling actually occurring over the next century or so.
In fact, the transition from long-term global warming to long-term global cooling might be revealed in the article’s graph of UAH satellite data for the interval of 2017-2021.
Let’s stay tuned! . . . next little ice age, here we (may) come.
You know what I’d like to see?
I’d like to see all the data that has been used for version 6 to produce the recent record to be redone using version 5.
See, in 2015, version 6 came online and the entire temp record took an upwards jump. So I want to see what the record might be if we went back to when UAH temps were a closer match to the radiosondes.
Mind you, I am having issues finding the radiosonde data from the past couple of years – or rather the raw data appears to be available for download but I can’t find anywhere it has been mapped into human-readable form.
Coincidence?
Why do these data set owners keep pretending that number out there in the hundredth place has any significance? I know from college physics that you might keep that number out there when doing all the calculations, but once you reach the end you have to drop off those insignificant digits.