From Dr. Roy Spencer’s Weather Blog
February 2nd, 2022 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for January, 2022 was +0.03 deg. C, down from the December, 2021 value of +0.21 deg. C.
The linear warming trend since January, 1979 now stands at +0.13 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).
Various regional LT departures from the 30-year (1991-2020) average for the last 13 months are:
YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPIC USA48 ARCTIC AUST
2021 01 0.12 0.34 -0.09 -0.08 0.36 0.50 -0.52
2021 02 0.20 0.32 0.08 -0.14 -0.65 0.07 -0.27
2021 03 -0.01 0.13 -0.14 -0.29 0.59 -0.78 -0.79
2021 04 -0.05 0.05 -0.15 -0.28 -0.02 0.02 0.29
2021 05 0.08 0.14 0.03 0.06 -0.41 -0.04 0.02
2021 06 -0.01 0.31 -0.32 -0.14 1.44 0.63 -0.76
2021 07 0.20 0.33 0.07 0.13 0.58 0.43 0.80
2021 08 0.17 0.27 0.08 0.07 0.33 0.83 -0.02
2021 09 0.25 0.18 0.33 0.09 0.67 0.02 0.37
2021 10 0.37 0.46 0.27 0.33 0.84 0.63 0.06
2021 11 0.08 0.11 0.06 0.14 0.50 -0.42 -0.29
2021 12 0.21 0.27 0.15 0.03 1.63 0.01 -0.06
2022 01 0.03 0.06 0.00 -0.24 -0.13 0.68 0.09
The full UAH Global Temperature Report, along with the LT global gridpoint anomaly image for January, 2022 should be available within the next several days here.
The global and regional monthly anomalies for the various atmospheric layers we monitor should be available in the next few days at the following locations:
Lower Troposphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt
Mid-Troposphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tmt/uahncdc_mt_6.0.txt
Tropopause: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/ttp/uahncdc_tp_6.0.txt
Lower Stratosphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tls/uahncdc_ls_6.0.txt
We’re all going to die. Yawn
Hmmm… lower than 1988 when it all started. Interesting.
I just knew it. When I was clearing snow for my garbage bin this morning @ur momisugly -12 F, it felt at least a tenth of a degree cooler.
A good chance of a drop to the negative in a month or so.
Then we have to wait a few years to see if this leads to the first downward step in temperatures since the AGW farrago began.
There have been two upward steps since the mid 20th century cooling period.
Such steps up and down being a result of solar induced cloudiness changes which cause alterations in the proportion of solar energy able to enter the oceans.
Thank you Dr. Spencer for your extraordinary work to produce a long term global temperature measurement so we can all see with our own eyes what’s happening. The UAH data is by far the best resource we have for refuting the hyperbolic claims of the alarmists. We get excited about big downturns but it doesn’t mean much other than to remind us that natural variation dominates. It’s the long term trend that matters.
The trend in the next two decades will be interesting to watch. It’ll have to increase dramatically to catch up with model projections. The longer it remains moderate the more steeply it will have to accelerate to match the models. At what point do the alarmists admit that the models are wrong? Those more grounded in science are already quietly ignoring RCP8.5, saying its projections of CO2 are unrealistically high. Which is really funny and a disingenous deflection because atmospheric CO2 continues to increase in line with RCP8.5 but temperatures and sea level rise are stubbornly refusing to go along with its predictions and they know it, meaning the models are wrong for every CO2 scenario (8.5, 6.0, 4.5, 2.6} and always have been. You would think, being scientists, that they would revise their models but the dogma is strong in them and they still cling to their invalidated assumptions about CO2 radiative forcing because catastrophic warming just has to be true, gosh darn it.
Factoring in the 5~6 month lag between La Niña cooling and UAH 6 global temp anomaly cooling, March’s temp anomaly will likely be around -0.1C~-0.2C and will mark the end of the current La Niña cycle.
UAH6 temp anomalies will increasr after March as a new El Niño cycle develops later and will generally trend upwards will through to the middle of 2023.
It’s very difficult to predict how strong the developing El Niño cycle will be, but given the 30-year PDO cool cycle seems to already started, it’s likely to be another moderate El Niño cycle.
There is a pretty good chance that the next La Niña cycle starting from around the end of 2023 will be a strong one as we haven’t had a strong La Niña cycle since 2010, and there is usually at least one strong La Niña every 10 years, so we’re “overdue”…. (Yeah, I know that’s not how statistics work, but still..)
We are still feeling the effects of the cloud changes seen over the past 25 years. They have thinned allowing in more short wave (aka solar) energy. This energy has warmed the oceans and oceans continue to release it slowly back into the atmosphere. Until the clouds thicken back up we will not see any long term cooling.
BTW, looking at the atmosphere as a multi-layer onion provides insight as to why CO2 increases cannot provide more warming.
When you add CO2 it radiates more energy in all directions. That includes upward. If you believe downwelling energy warms the Earth, then the increased upwelling energy should cool the planet.
But neither is true because the amount of upward energy flux is independent of the amount of CO2. The actual amount of energy flow is based on the total energy available and is moderated by the gravitational field. Since neither of these changes with added CO2, you get no warming.
To understand this think of 3 layers of the atmosphere constantly absorbing and radiating energy through CO2 molecules.
The middle layer is radiating more energy than the upper layer because it is denser. It is radiating less energy than the bottom layer because it is less dense. Same is true for absorption.
Hence, the middle layer absorbs more energy from the layer below than from the layer above. However it radiates equally in both directions. This means there’s a net positive movement upward and a net negative change downward.
This is how energy moves through the atmosphere.
If you replace some O2 with CO2 you get more absorption and radiation in all 3 layers. However, the amount of change in all 3 layers is unchanged since the difference is driven by the change in density which is unchanged. The flow remains the same.
Even though more energy is radiated downward from any given layer, that is met with an even larger flow upward from the layer below it. The difference is based on the difference in density.
This is not at all simple. It takes most people some time to grasp what is going on. It helps to first consider what would happen without gravity. Then all the flows are equal and you quickly realize there would be no energy movement at all when you increase CO2.
I realize the actual flow in the atmosphere is not this well constrained. Statistically, all those other complexities vanish.
Finally, it is rather amazing that the upward movement of energy through the atmosphere is driven by gravity. Not at intuitive. While there exists downwelling IR, the energy flux is always upward. Hence, it cannot warm the planet.
To go a bit extreme, a 2% increase in absolute temperature (call that 5C) causes an 8% increase in emitted IR energy….and the solar constant remains, hmmm, constant….There’s just not enough solar energy available that double the CO2 can absorb to make the planet much warmer than it already is, at least without some sort of fairly big Albedo change. Maybe one more degree. So as they say on Wall street “if something can’t continue rising…it will stop.”
already saw this on Roy Spencer’s feed. You posted Spencers complete website entry …TMI
love it keep posting best things thanks for sharing love it
Literally nothing out of the ordinary is happening at all (except the rise of an evil New Religion!)
We don’t need to argue about 0,?/deg, We need to accept that the earth is getting warmer. However the minuscule increase is not an existential threat. This is what we should sing together. The world is not in danger. As Tucker would say “Sit down and shut up,”
We all have periods when temperature is hot/warmer than whenever. Here along the Ohio River our “plant hardiness zone” was changed 20? years ago. We moved up to a warmer
zone. This doesn’t prove/disapprove anything. I plant the same plants and have the same bugs and viruses.
We are not facing an existential threat.
Everybody…. that’s ”climate change” right there. Have a good look then run away screaming.
0.13 degrees per decade! So 1.3 degrees in a century’s time! Woop-de-DO, warmists!
Dear warmists – explain THIS to me. Say the temperature is (on average) 16 degrees Celsius in my country. If it is 18 degrees in 100 years time, *how will that kill anyone?*
It WON’T!
Even in a hot place like (say) India – say it’s (on average) 35 Celsius now. In 100 years that’s 37 Celsius. Big deal!
Oh, but “melting Antarctica” they say! Gee, even if that were true, we can *move!*
We’re not helpless! Yes, it would be massively expensive but *people can adapt!*
Oh, but “water shortages”, they say. It is true that *some places* (best example being Southern California taking water from the Colorado River) need to wise-up with their water usage but their problems are caused by *massive waste of water* – not by the climate.
Oh, and India is FAR ahead of the West when it comes to conserving water (with their water-harvesting schemes).
Newsflash – If it were warming, that means more evaporation. Evaporation *cools* – that’s why a breeze on your sweating body feels so good. It also means *more rain*.
It’s a self-correcting system!
As for desertification, one of the main causes of that is foolish land use – grazing too intensively and chopping down every tree in sight.
I note that with increasing CO2 levels the *Sahel is greening*. Oh, and we had record wheat harvests a couple of years ago – oh, that nasty CO2!
I am waiting for another Kapitan Kolbenikov eco tourist boat trip to demonstrate to all selected passengers the horror of the disappearing ice in the Arctic, which got stuck in ice that was supposed to have not been there for several weeks without rescue, the ice being so thick that ice-breakers couldn’t reach the stranded vessel!!!
Popcorn is open, waiting to see what a negative AMO does. If temps fall off back towards 1970s levels, CO2 is a busted flush. If it stays level (hopefully) CO2 is having some effect, though not dramatic.
Any suggestion of an alarming rise from CO2 is already dead, we know that, the lack of warming cant be accounted for, the Cabal admitted it. So the whole panic is over anyway.
Some trivia:
Only the 17th Warmest January, or 28th coldest, out of 44 years of UAH data.
The coldest January since 2012.
Only one January in the 20th century was warmer.
+0.03degrees, just wow.
Thanks Roy for the update. Doesn’t look to scary to me!
I like the bigger dot for the latest reading…makes it easier to see what’s happened this month.
The real climate emergency is locking in mandates, regulation, tariffs, and tax increases before the oceans reveal the fraud and before Edward Markey laments “Who could have known.”
Another graph I saw on these pages said no warming for the past 7 years. What do I believe?
The Arctic air mass is cut off in the southern US and will remain there longer.
The “warming” is the “warming”. Not much.
But I am most disturbed by the deceitful government policymakers who use the purposefully deceptive words “address” and “mitigate” climate change.
Rank and file climate crusaders all presume that means doing something about it when it does not. Query any of them to provide any science showing carbon policies altering the climate and they clam up or parrot the usual cliches.
IMO more attention (criticism) needs to be aimed at and highlight the absence of any atmospheric, climate or weather changes possible from the worthless “addressing” and “mitigation”.
As most regulars here are aware, there is widespread recognition that all of the implemented and proposed “addressing” and “mitigation” is worthless as relating to anything climate or weather,
Example https://ballotpedia.org/Fact_check/Would_the_Clean_Power_Plan_mitigate_climate_change
Excerpt: The excuse…
“The value of this …[mitigation] …is measured in showing strong domestic action which can actually trigger global action to address what is necessary…if we don’t take action domestically, we will never get started.”
That is nothing but another fatally flawed presumption. It’s an empty claim that will never even be measured. Who and how will will anyone ever show global action is addressing what is necessary?
No one will, ever.
We’ll all be dead, decades will pass and the asinine mitigation will never trigger or address anything necessary.
Without demands for science and politicians to measure and demonstrate positive climate impact the climate crusade remains the biggest fraud in human history.
There was a record temperature drop above the 65th parallel in the lower stratosphere.