From Dr. Roy Spencer’s Global Warming Blog
Dr. Roy Spencer,
The Version 6.1 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for September, 2026 was +0.61 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean, down from the August, 2026 value of +0.68 deg. C.
The Version 6.1 global area-averaged linear temperature trend (January 1979 through September 2026) remains at +0.16 deg/ C/decade (+0.22 C/decade over land, +0.13 C/decade over oceans).
The following table lists various regional Version 6.1 LT departures from the 30-year (1991-2020) average for the last 33 months (record highs are in red).
| Year | Mon | Globe | NHem | SHem | Tropic | US48 | Arctic | Aust. | Can. |
| 2024 | Jan | +0.80 | +1.02 | +0.57 | +1.20 | -0.19 | +0.40 | +1.12 | +0.97 |
| 2024 | Feb | +0.88 | +0.94 | +0.81 | +1.16 | +1.31 | +0.85 | +1.16 | +2.45 |
| 2024 | Mar | +0.88 | +0.96 | +0.80 | +1.25 | +0.22 | +1.05 | +1.34 | +1.12 |
| 2024 | Apr | +0.94 | +1.12 | +0.76 | +1.15 | +0.86 | +0.88 | +0.54 | +1.39 |
| 2024 | May | +0.77 | +0.77 | +0.78 | +1.20 | +0.04 | +0.20 | +0.52 | +0.67 |
| 2024 | June | +0.69 | +0.78 | +0.60 | +0.85 | +1.36 | +0.63 | +0.91 | +0.19 |
| 2024 | July | +0.73 | +0.86 | +0.61 | +0.96 | +0.44 | +0.56 | -0.07 | +1.15 |
| 2024 | Aug | +0.75 | +0.81 | +0.69 | +0.74 | +0.40 | +0.88 | +1.75 | +1.36 |
| 2024 | Sep | +0.81 | +1.04 | +0.58 | +0.82 | +1.31 | +1.48 | +0.98 | |
| 2024 | Oct | +0.75 | +0.89 | +0.60 | +0.63 | +1.89 | +0.81 | +1.09 | +0.89 |
| 2024 | Nov | +0.64 | +0.87 | +0.40 | +0.53 | +1.11 | +0.79 | +1.00 | +1.61 |
| 2024 | Dec | +0.61 | +0.75 | +0.47 | +0.52 | +1.41 | +1.12 | +1.54 | +1.65 |
| 2025 | Jan | +0.45 | +0.70 | +0.21 | +0.24 | -1.07 | +0.74 | +0.48 | +1.04 |
| 2025 | Feb | +0.50 | +0.55 | +0.45 | +0.26 | +1.03 | +2.10 | +0.87 | -0.35 |
| 2025 | Mar | +0.57 | +0.73 | +0.41 | +0.40 | +1.24 | +1.23 | +1.20 | +0.80 |
| 2025 | Apr | +0.61 | +0.76 | +0.46 | +0.36 | +0.81 | +0.85 | +1.21 | +0.45 |
| 2025 | May | +0.50 | +0.45 | +0.55 | +0.30 | +0.15 | +0.75 | +0.98 | +0.81 |
| 2025 | June | +0.48 | +0.48 | +0.47 | +0.30 | +0.80 | +0.05 | +0.39 | -0.22 |
| 2025 | July | +0.36 | +0.49 | +0.23 | +0.45 | +0.32 | +0.40 | +0.53 | -0.23 |
| 2025 | Aug | +0.39 | +0.39 | +0.39 | +0.16 | -0.06 | +0.82 | +0.11 | +0.62 |
| 2025 | Sep | +0.53 | +0.56 | +0.49 | +0.35 | +0.38 | +0.77 | +0.30 | +2.44 |
| 2025 | Oct | +0.53 | +0.52 | +0.55 | +0.24 | +1.12 | +1.42 | +1.67 | +2.59 |
| 2025 | Nov | +0.43 | +0.59 | +0.27 | +0.24 | +1.32 | +0.78 | +0.36 | +1.47 |
| 2025 | Dec | +0.30 | +0.45 | +0.15 | +0.19 | +2.10 | +0.32 | +0.37 | -1.86 |
| 2026 | Jan | +0.35 | +0.51 | +0.19 | +0.09 | +0.30 | +1.40 | +0.95 | +1.17 |
| 2026 | Feb | +0.39 | +0.54 | +0.23 | +0.03 | +1.91 | -0.48 | +0.73 | +0.32 |
| 2026 | Mar | +0.38 | +0.33 | +0.42 | +0.07 | +3.74 | -0.48 | +1.14 | -3.17 |
| 2026 | Apr | +0.39 | +0.43 | +0.34 | +0.23 | +1.20 | +0.30 | +0.70 | -0.89 |
| 2026 | May | +0.53 | +0.46 | +0.60 | +0.58 | +0.21 | +0.34 | +0.10 | +0.21 |
| 2026 | June | +0.46 | +0.54 | +0.38 | +0.57 | +0.64 | +1.01 | +0.38 | +0.99 |
| 2026 | July | +0.48 | +0.68 | +0.27 | +0.85 | +1.14 | +0.53 | -0.22 | +0.78 |
| 2026 | Aug | +0.68 | +0.76 | +0.59 | +0.90 | +0.60 | +0.80 | +0.39 | +0.71 |
| 2026 | Sep | +0.61 | +0.78 | +0.44 | +0.89 | +1.32 | +0.80 | +1.13 | +0.99 |
| Year | Mon | Globe | NHem | SHem | Tropic | US48 | Arctic | Aust. | Can. |
Time Series Plots for Tropics, USA48, Canada, and Australia
The full UAH Global Temperature Report, along with the LT global gridpoint anomaly map for September, 2026 and a more detailed analysis by John Christy, should be available within the next several days here.
The monthly anomalies for various regions for the four deep layers we monitor from satellites will be available in the next several days at the following locations:
Third warmest September in the UAH history
2024 0.81
2023 0.79
2026 0.61
2025 0.52
2019 0.43
2020 0.40
2017 0.39
2016 0.30
1998 0.28
2021 0.26
(Disclaimer:
Presenting this data from UAH in no way implies a belief it is accurate, endorses the lack of uncertainty intervals, or that the number of decimal places is appropriate. Data only goes back to 1979 so there may have been hotter Septembers in the past 4.5 billion years.)
So far promised Super Duper El Niño hasn’t showed up. Maybe too early yet or secular cooling trend is dampening it.
Hmmmm . . . down a whopping 0.07 deg. C from the previous monthly anomaly value of +0.68 deg. C, as if that precision to hundredths of one degree C in UAH reporting GLAT temperature data has any real significance.
Is this the effect of the damned persistence of that water injected into the stratosphere in January 2022 by the Hunga-Tonga submarine volcano eruption, or the effect of the much-publicized super-El Niño that officially started in June 2026, or the effect of the very recent NASA-NOAA combined PR that the Sun just entered its solar maximum period, a peak characterized by a high number of sunspots, powerful X-class solar flares, and frequent coronal mass ejections (CMEs) . . . or is it caused by something else entirely, say, random variations.
Some many choices . . . so little scientific data to support a given hypothesis. That’s weather/climate for you!
Once again, atmospheric high pressure has been parked over the CONUS. Since last year this has been the case, especially over the western states. I expect that during La Niña, but come on now, how much longer will we deal with this?
Bellman: “Presenting this data from UAH in no way implies a belief it is accurate, (my bold)”
The only comment in accord with metrology.
These discussions always pose the question, so what data/facts would my fellow skeptics accept.
The answer is only that which agrees with their belief that the world hasn’t warmed. It’s a shame because such blind intransigence devalues our position.
September was the sixth warmest in the ~360 year long Central England Temperature series, +2.5C (1961-90). We had a record warm night right at the end of September where the minimum loitered around 20C all night over a wide area. Every month Feb-Sep in 2026 has been between +2.5 and +3.5C, and 2026 is on course to be an all time record by about a whole degree C.
I find these ` departure values unsatisfying .
Arrhenius guesstimated mean global temperature at 15c .
What’s the asserted estimate now ?
Here is a chart showing UAH_TLT for US48 (CONUS), year-to-date (Jan-Sep) from 1979-2026.
The new Monckton Pause extends to 44 months starting in 2023/02. The average of this pause is 0.55 C. The previous Monckton Pause started in 2014/06. It lasted 107 months and had an average of 0.21 C. That makes this pause 0.34 C higher than the previous one.
+0.158 ± 0.041 C.decade-1 k=2 is the trend from 1979/01 to 2026/09 covering 573 values.
+0.054 ± 0.055 C.decade-2 k=2 is the acceleration of the trend.
Since “global warming” is no longer a thing – it being very uncooperative and has been replaced by “climate change”, could we have graphs of this please. Also graphs of “climate emergency” and “climate crisis” as it is important to observe the increase in these too.
Because Jim Gorman used AI as some authority regarding the handling of uncertainty I thought it might be interesting to have Gemini analyze the whole comment section of this article and provide commentary.
My first prompt was intentionally meant to lead Gemini into thinking Bellman or I had made mistakes and to summarize what they were.
“In the comment section of this article at (https://wattsupwiththat.com/2026/10/03/uah-v6-1-global-temperature-update-for-september-2026-0-61-deg-c/) summarize the mistakes bdgwx or Bellman have made when describing uncertainty propagation according to the JCGM 100:2008 guidelines.”
Gemini’s responses ended up being quite interesting indeed.
https://share.gemini.google/dY8eerkaHHHR