From Dr. Roy Spencer’s Global Warming Blog
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
The Version 6.1 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for July, 2026 was +0.48 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean, which is statistically unchanged from the June, 2026 value of +0.46 deg. C.
The Version 6.1 global area-averaged linear temperature trend (January 1979 through July 2026) remains at +0.16 deg/ C/decade (+0.22 C/decade over land, +0.13 C/decade over oceans).
The following table lists various regional Version 6.1 LT departures from the 30-year (1991-2020) average for the last 31 months (record highs are in red).
| Year | Mon | Globe | NHem | SHem | Tropic | US48 | Arctic | Aust. | Can. |
| 2024 | Jan | +0.80 | +1.02 | +0.57 | +1.20 | -0.19 | +0.40 | +1.12 | +0.97 |
| 2024 | Feb | +0.88 | +0.94 | +0.81 | +1.16 | +1.31 | +0.85 | +1.16 | +2.45 |
| 2024 | Mar | +0.88 | +0.96 | +0.80 | +1.25 | +0.22 | +1.05 | +1.34 | +1.12 |
| 2024 | Apr | +0.94 | +1.12 | +0.76 | +1.15 | +0.86 | +0.88 | +0.54 | +1.39 |
| 2024 | May | +0.77 | +0.77 | +0.78 | +1.20 | +0.04 | +0.20 | +0.52 | +0.67 |
| 2024 | June | +0.69 | +0.78 | +0.60 | +0.85 | +1.36 | +0.63 | +0.91 | +0.19 |
| 2024 | July | +0.73 | +0.86 | +0.61 | +0.96 | +0.44 | +0.56 | -0.07 | +1.15 |
| 2024 | Aug | +0.75 | +0.81 | +0.69 | +0.74 | +0.40 | +0.88 | +1.75 | +1.36 |
| 2024 | Sep | +0.81 | +1.04 | +0.58 | +0.82 | +1.31 | +1.48 | +0.98 | |
| 2024 | Oct | +0.75 | +0.89 | +0.60 | +0.63 | +1.89 | +0.81 | +1.09 | +0.89 |
| 2024 | Nov | +0.64 | +0.87 | +0.40 | +0.53 | +1.11 | +0.79 | +1.00 | +1.61 |
| 2024 | Dec | +0.61 | +0.75 | +0.47 | +0.52 | +1.41 | +1.12 | +1.54 | +1.65 |
| 2025 | Jan | +0.45 | +0.70 | +0.21 | +0.24 | -1.07 | +0.74 | +0.48 | +1.04 |
| 2025 | Feb | +0.50 | +0.55 | +0.45 | +0.26 | +1.03 | +2.10 | +0.87 | -0.35 |
| 2025 | Mar | +0.57 | +0.73 | +0.41 | +0.40 | +1.24 | +1.23 | +1.20 | +0.80 |
| 2025 | Apr | +0.61 | +0.76 | +0.46 | +0.36 | +0.81 | +0.85 | +1.21 | +0.45 |
| 2025 | May | +0.50 | +0.45 | +0.55 | +0.30 | +0.15 | +0.75 | +0.98 | +0.81 |
| 2025 | June | +0.48 | +0.48 | +0.47 | +0.30 | +0.80 | +0.05 | +0.39 | -0.22 |
| 2025 | July | +0.36 | +0.49 | +0.23 | +0.45 | +0.32 | +0.40 | +0.53 | -0.23 |
| 2025 | Aug | +0.39 | +0.39 | +0.39 | +0.16 | -0.06 | +0.82 | +0.11 | +0.62 |
| 2025 | Sep | +0.53 | +0.56 | +0.49 | +0.35 | +0.38 | +0.77 | +0.30 | +2.44 |
| 2025 | Oct | +0.53 | +0.52 | +0.55 | +0.24 | +1.12 | +1.42 | +1.67 | +2.59 |
| 2025 | Nov | +0.43 | +0.59 | +0.27 | +0.24 | +1.32 | +0.78 | +0.36 | +1.47 |
| 2025 | Dec | +0.30 | +0.45 | +0.15 | +0.19 | +2.10 | +0.32 | +0.37 | -1.86 |
| 2026 | Jan | +0.35 | +0.51 | +0.19 | +0.09 | +0.30 | +1.40 | +0.95 | +1.17 |
| 2026 | Feb | +0.39 | +0.54 | +0.23 | +0.03 | +1.91 | -0.48 | +0.73 | +0.32 |
| 2026 | Mar | +0.38 | +0.33 | +0.42 | +0.07 | +3.74 | -0.48 | +1.14 | -3.17 |
| 2026 | Apr | +0.39 | +0.43 | +0.34 | +0.23 | +1.20 | +0.30 | +0.70 | -0.89 |
| 2026 | May | +0.53 | +0.46 | +0.60 | +0.58 | +0.21 | +0.34 | +0.10 | +0.21 |
| 2026 | June | +0.46 | +0.54 | +0.38 | +0.57 | +0.64 | +1.01 | +0.38 | +0.99 |
| 2026 | July | +0.48 | +0.68 | +0.27 | +0.85 | +1.14 | +0.53 | -0.22 | +0.78 |
| Year | Mon | Globe | NHem | SHem | Tropic | US48 | Arctic | Aust. | Can. |
Time Series Plots for USA48, Canada, and Australia
The full UAH Global Temperature Report, along with the LT global gridpoint anomaly map for July, 2026 and a more detailed analysis by John Christy, should be available within the next several days here. John officially retired on July 1, 2026, but will continue working as a part-time employee of UAH.
The monthly anomalies for various regions for the four deep layers we monitor from satellites will be available in the next several days at the following locations:
Third warmest July in the UAH data.
Here are the top 10 July anomalies.
2024 0.732023 0.56
2026 0.48
1998 0.38
2025 0.36
2022 0.32
2020 0.30
2016 0.26
2019 0.23
2010 0.20
It’s noticeable how much of an outlier 1998 is for the last century. Next warmest 20th century July is 1988 in 20th place with an anomaly of +0.03.
“The Version 6.1 global area-averaged linear temperature trend (January 1979 through July 2026) remains at +0.16 deg/ C/decade “
Recent temperature anomalies have mostly been above the long-term trend… even through two La Niñas:
Oh, and there’s a huge El Niño underway too.
As a naive layman I don’t get the March 2026 US vs. Canada anomalies. I get Canada is generally colder than the US, but they have pretty much the same northern hemisphere seasons as we do, and the temp. anomalies generally correlate. Yet, in March the US anomaly was +3.74°C while Canada was -3.17°C, or a total difference of 6.91°C (12.438°F). Without any other knowledge about these measurements I would look at these as potential outlier data points or red flags.
Isn’t it about time for reasonable people to look at the UAH graph and notice the slope confirming the past 40 years shows a 0.16C/decade temperature increase and that the overwhelming probability is that it will continue to remain so for the next 40 years? By 2066 the nuclear renaissance should be far enough along to reduce the rate.
47 years of satellite data collecting and we see +0.48 average deg C of global warming per a multitude of changing techniques and baselines.
Obviously, all efforts to mitigate global warming to 2.0 deg C to avoid disaster are working because at this rate it will take another 141 years of fossil fuel burning to exceed that number. I was told in college that there isn’t enough recoverable fossil fuel left on Earth to last that long.
The new Monckton Pause extends to 43 months starting in 2023/01. The average of this pause is 0.53 C. The previous Monckton Pause started in 2014/06. It lasted 107 months and had an average of 0.21 C. That makes this pause 0.32 C higher than the previous one.
+0.157 ± 0.037 C.decade-1 k=2 is the trend from 1979/01 to 2026/07 covering 571 values.
+0.026 ± 0.009 C.decade-2 k=2 is the acceleration of the trend.
So we are looking at the differences of averages from averages.
I guess someone has to make pretty pictures.
I see that the stupid warmest/alarmists are out in force babbling about hottest year on record or similar crap many here have to face while the simpletons never thought how it was when the same warming rate happened between 1920-1940 time frame when then they would howl this in the warmest year on record crappola then…. the rate is the same then as it is now .16C/decade.
Then when it began to cool down in the early 1940’s and accelerated in the 1960’s that cooled over 1C in just 30 years there was a lot of hand wringing over it….
We are now close to the END of this global warming trend as the inevitable cooling is close as the AMO is soon to go into decline.
I wonder how many climate change cultists will jump out of windows when their scam suddenly comes to an end when the cooling trend begins.
There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies and statistics. Quoted by Mark Twain
This report is from Spencer. I trust the figures not to have been fudged.
I do not accept that a patch of troposphere represents the planet.
Mid-2026 we know that the hemispheres differ and are changing at different rates, we know they differ in how much land surface and ocean surface they consist of.
So, even an accurate and reliable estimate of one layer of planet earth varying in temperature tells us nothing about overall warming, cooling or stability.
And now Soon et al are going to nail down the assertion – carbon dioxide is irrelevant to the ever changing temperature of the planet.
After reading through the back and forth comments in this thread, your time would be better spent arguing how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.
Good to see that Dr Spencer has started showing the linear trend on his UAH data. He’s been doing it for a couple of months now.
It makes it easier for people to see the strong warming trend in UAH, which used to be the poster chid of fake climate change skeptics.
Sorry if it has already been mentioned, but it is noticeable that US48 (contiguous USA) had its warmest July on record in UAH in 2026.
Looks very like 2026 will also be US48’s warmest year on record, barring a meteor strike/major volcanic eruption.
(For the pedantry, I am referring to UAH, which starts in 1979, as far as July is concerned.)
Proof that all the recent wild fires are not caused by global warming. Cool.
-No warming in Australia for the last climate data point. = no climate change in the SH.
-All the warming happening in the NH.
-No global warming.
Too easy.
I’m looking at some of the record temperatures from some of the summers in the 1930’s. Very similar to now.
1) We have warmed up some since the LIA, and that is a good thing. History, and common sense tells us that humanity, and life itself does better during warm periods.
2) Science cannot say for sure why we have warmed, however we do know that there have been many previous periods of warming (and cooling) so there is no scientific reason to believe that this warming period is any different from previous ones, despite the fervent wishes of the Climate Caterwaulers to blame it on “carbon”.
3) There is zero scientific evidence that man’s CO2 emissions have had anything to do with modern warming. There is a chance that it has affected temperatures in some small way, due to the greenhouse effect, however it is just as likely that whatever slight warming effect they have had is being cancelled out by negative feedbacks. In any case, if said small warming effect is happening, it is much too small to measure, and of no consequence to us, or to the earth whatsoever.
Sorry, Climate Caterwaulers.
Can anyone explain it to me like I am 5 (a 5 year old with an engineering physics degree 😜) why after every El Nino event the UAH temperatures settle down around 0.2 degrees above the last level, creating a staircase effect?