Guest essay by Eric Worrall
According to an AGU study, this might be our last chance to save the Chinese Communists from a climate catastrophe.
Climate Change Could Open Up ‘Rivers in The Sky’ Over East Asia
DAVID NIELD 23 JANUARY 2022
We know that the climate crisis is already having a profound effect on global weather systems, altering temperatures, rainfall, wind patterns, and more – and a new study predicts likely deluges over the mountainous parts of East Asia in the future.
The pouring rain will be brought on by atmospheric rivers, scientists predict. These narrow corridors of concentrated moisture can quickly cause flooding when they hit a barrier such as a mountain range, releasing vast amounts of water in a short space of time.
According to the researchers’ models, rainfall events in East Asia will be more frequent and more severe in the coming decades as the planet warms up. More water will be transported through the air, and more precipitation will land on the ground.
“We find that both the atmospheric river-related water vapor transport and rainfall intensify over the southern and western slopes of mountains over East Asia in a warmer climate,” write the researchers in their published paper.
“Atmospheric rivers will bring unprecedented extreme rainfall over East Asia under global warming.”
…
Read more: https://www.sciencealert.com/climate-change-could-open-up-rivers-in-the-sky-over-east-asia
The abstract of the study;
Atmospheric Rivers Bring More Frequent and Intense Extreme Rainfall Events Over East Asia Under Global Warming
Y. Kamae, Y. Imada, H. Kawase, W. Mei
First published: 01 December 2021Portions of East Asia often experienced extremely heavy rainfall events over the last decade. Intense atmospheric rivers (ARs), eddy transports of moisture over the middle latitudes, contributed significantly to these events. Although previous studies pointed out that landfalling ARs will become more frequent under global warming, the extent to which ARs produce extreme rainfall over East Asia in a warmer climate remains unclear. Here we evaluate changes in the frequency and intensity of AR-related extreme heavy rainfall under global warming using a set of high-resolution global and regional atmospheric simulations. We find that both the AR-related water vapor transport and rainfall intensify over the southern and western slopes of mountains over East Asia in a warmer climate. ARs are responsible for a large fraction of the increase in the occurrence of extreme rainfall in boreal spring and summer. ARs will bring unprecedented extreme rainfall over East Asia under global warming.
Read more: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021GL096030
Naturally the study embraces RCP 8.5.
The study authors predict increased water vapour transport and concluded that will lead to increased rainfall. “Increased water vapor in the warmer air alone can lead to increased AR [Atmospheric River] occurrence“. But where does the power come from, to evaporate and transport all that additional water vapour?
The following is one of the few studies I have read which questions the assumption that warmer temperatures automatically lead to a significantly intensified water cycle.
Constrained work output of the moist atmospheric heat engine in a warming climate
Incoming and outgoing solar radiation couple with heat exchange at Earth’s surface to drive weather patterns that redistribute heat and moisture around the globe, creating an atmospheric heat engine. Here, we investigate the engine’s work output using thermodynamic diagrams computed from reanalyzed observations and from a climate model simulation with anthropogenic forcing. We show that the work output is always less than that of an equivalent Carnot cycle and that it is constrained by the power necessary to maintain the hydrological cycle. In the climate simulation, the hydrological cycle increases more rapidly than the equivalent Carnot cycle. We conclude that the intensification of the hydrological cycle in warmer climates might limit the heat engine’s ability to generate work.
Read more (requires registration): http://science.sciencemag.org/content/347/6221/540.full
The point is, climate intensity is not related to surface temperature, it is related to how quickly solar energy passes through the climate system. This is nothing to do with the debate about whether CO2 or solar variations drives global warming, because I’m not talking about variations in surface temperature.
What I am talking about is the energy flow, from sunlit daytime to interstellar space, which drives the entire global weather system.
You can have more storms, or more intense rainfall, but not both. If water vapour transport and rainfall does intensify, the energy to power that rainfall intensification has to come at the cost to the intensity of another atmospheric phenomenon, to keep the thermodynamic books balanced. Climate change could redistribute the intensity of extreme weather – but any rise in extreme weather intensity in one location has to be more or less counterbalanced by a reduction in intensity elsewhere.
Lets just say I’m not going to lose any sleep over the predictions of this study.
What the study says…”the extent to which ARs produce extreme rainfall over East Asia in a warmer climate remains unclear”
What David Nield reported…”We know that the climate crisis is already having a profound effect ……and a new study predicts likely deluges over the mountainous parts of East Asia in the future.”
A clear case of media misrepresentation.
A clear case of media misrepresentation.
Nah just the usual loyal footsoldiers pumping out the dooming message and the study authors won’t be ringing up urgently to request a correction. That’s pretty lightweight stuff but here’s your typical classic from the propaganda machine-
U.S. corn production is booming—but not for the reasons scientists hoped (msn.com)
Isn’t it great how we’re growing all that food nowadays BUT…. don’t forget dooming ahead folks!
You can find me out in the back burning up all the used tires tossed back there to contribute to this unfortunate result for the Chi-Coms…
We know what happens under model simulations.
Big deal. The GCM models do not represent the observed reality after a few days.
In other words, we know what future fantasy is but refuse to stop confusing it with reality.
They already had one ‘river of rain’ last year in Henan… why couldn’t there be another?
And Germany had one last year and so did the area near Vancouver – three in one 6 month period.
Of course such rains occur, China’s Yangtze River, the river of tears, regularly killed 15,000 per year until China built the Three Gorges Dam. Germany did no water infrastructure for decades, and look what happened. The world leader in water infrastructure is Holland with its storm surge barriers.
If the silly authors are trying to scare China, they are barking up the wrong tree!
Rivers of rain have been around forever. Just like every other weather phenomena that you whine about.
The Yangtze River has naturally flooded for thousands of years and, yes, humans have played a part in making the flooding worse. They did this by cutting off, over centuries, many of the lakes and marshes that once provided flood control by building levees and converting areas to cropland.
One of the worst recent floods was in 1931 which covered some 30,000 sq miles (77,700 sqkms), killed over 300,000 people and left 40m homeless.
Gives you some context for judging last years rain.
They are called severe thunderstroms, Griff. It’s just weather.
Griff
How many 1 in 1000 year events are there?
if you break the world up into 400 sq mile parcels you know how many 1 in 1000 year events you could expect?
Roughly 1.3 per day.
See below, Griff. God, you’re tedious.
Man, you’re not just an idiot, you’re a boring idiot.
But, but, but. Weren’t those countries going to run out of water because of melting glaciers? Or does the rain only fall on the plain and not as snow in the mountains?
Increased water vapour content? By how much? Have they figured out what determines the water vapour content?
From the article: “We know that the climate crisis is already having a profound effect on global weather systems, altering temperatures, rainfall, wind patterns, and more”
“We” don’t know any of that. It’s all untrue. There is no evidence CO2 is having a profound effect on Earth’s weather. This author demonstrates his lack of knowledge by claiming there is evidence.
We do know that. The premise is false. Remove the word “crisis” and read it.
Where’s my light switch?
And for the sarcastically challenged, I’m asking so I can turn them all ON.
https://hackaday.com/2022/01/26/turn-on-sarcasm-with-the-flip-of-a-switch/
I’m looking for the car keys too. And firing up the gas generator. Don’t need it, my power is on.
Without hardware,
https://www.browserling.com/tools/text-randomcase
I got this :
wHeRe’s mY lIGHt SwItcH?
AnD For the SARCasTIcallY ChALleNgeD, I’m AskINg so I cAN tuRN theM aLl oN.
There is a FF add-on, rAndoM capitAliSAtiOn , not tested…
Just imagine rivers of space aliens and flying pigs. Ok, maybe not at the same time. But still.
Hey, it could happen.
What if the space aliens were flying pigs?
I have the monopoly on flying pigs with Cpt Hogthrob, Miss P, Dr. Julius Strangepork aboard the Swinetrek.
China has scientists. They are probably subject to less political pressure than those in the West. China has about 300 million people living on the coasts, not to mention industry and infrastructure.
Yet China is building coal fired power plants as fast as possible. What is it that China understands differently from the West about “climate change”? Why?
The questions that never get asked.
Rivers of rain could wreck China? Good news is always welcome in the morning.
The Climate Caterwaulers “know” all sorts of things.
None of which are remotely true.
Why would we want to save the Chicomms? What have they done for anybody else?
Considering how China is ramping up coal use and CO2 emissions, they don’t seem worried about it, so why should I?
As soon as someone invokes the term “climate crisis” as a justification for some policy action, you can be assured they have no idea what they are talking about, and are just regurgitating propaganda talking points.
About David Neld (from his online bio) as supporting proof to my above assertion:
See, reducing CO2 causes less rain .. take note Caifornia
I’ve seen a lot of outgassing coming from climate alarmists in the form of superheated CO2.
Help me here. I am trying to figure out why it is that everything will get worse because of climate change.
Honestly, who cares what happens to China?
The “Mandate of Heaven” will wreck china