NOVEMBER 25, 2021
By Paul Homewood
h/t Ian Magness
If you thought UK climate policy was potty…………….
Olaf Scholz will head a three-party coalition with broad plans for Germany’s transition to a green economy, under a deal to end 16 years of government led by Angela Merkel.
Almost two months after his Social Democrat party won federal elections, he will go into power with the Greens and business-friendly Free Democrats.
Climate protection forms a big part of the coalition deal.
The parties aim to phase out coal use by 2030, eight years ahead of schedule.
They will also seek to use 2% of German territory for wind power and focus on hydrogen-based energy too. By 2030, the parties want 80% of electricity to be sourced from renewable energy and 15 million electric cars to be on German roads.
Making Germany climate neutral by 2045is a big focus of the deal, entitled “Daring more progress”. Phasing out coal will take place “ideally” by 2030, and solar energy will become compulsory on the roofs of new commercial buildings and the general rule for new private homes. The 16 states will have to provide 2% of their area for wind power. The goal to phase out cars with internal combustion engines remains the EU’s target of 2035.
Germany currently gets 35% of its power from coal and nuclear, the latter already due to be phased out next year. Without this reliable generation, Germany will be heavily reliant on imported electricity.
BP Energy Review
So far this month, solar power has only provided 2.8% of Germany’s electricity. This equates to solar running at just 3% of its capacity. In simple terms, all of those solar panels they propose to build will be virtually useless in winter.
That leaves wind power. Although it has contributed on average 23% of total electricity this month, equivalent to 13 GW, there have been several days when it has been running at below 4GW. Given that Germany has 62 GW of wind power capacity, this is chicken feed.
German households will no doubt pay the cost for this obsession with renewable energy. But without power from other countries to fall back on when the weather does not cooperate, the outcome would be catastrophic.
There is a twist to this story. Apparently even the Greens have accepted that there will an ongoing need for gas power stations, at least in the short term.
The problem is that Germany only currently has 30 GW of gas-fired capacity.
Given the increased electrification proposed, Germany will at least 100 GW of reliable capacity. Gas, biomass and hydro together only provide 43 GW, less than half of that required.
That means an awful lot of new gas plants will have to be built. There may be a lot of hot air and wishful thinking, but little evidence that this will happen.