From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
By Paul Homewood
Get the popcorn out!
A rare clash has emerged between the two ‘big boys’ of UK weather forecasting after they made hugely different long-term predictions for the winter ahead.
Britain’s two biggest forecasters have predicted polar opposites for this winter.
The Government-run Met Office has forecast a mild few months ahead but the BBC, which gets its information from DTN, warned of a deep freeze.
Experts say energy and road transport firms, airlines and supermarkets will all be hit by the uncertainty.
John Hammond, a former weatherman at both the BBC and Met Office, said: “It’s meteorological mayhem with huge disagreement on what happens in the months ahead. They are starkly different forecasts and can’t both be right.
“There are huge implications for customers such as Government, the energy sector, media and a wide range of other industries.
“Back-pedalling will be required by one of the big boys. Who will blink first?”
The Met Office says: “A mild three-month period is more likely than a cold one.
“Consistent with a warming climate, there is a reduction in the chance of cold.”
But the BBC’s forecaster DTN says: “This winter is likely to feature a weak polar vortex, bringing increased cold risks from Arctic air masses later in the season. January and February could feature frigid air, similar to last year.”
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/bbc-met-office-war-over-25513792
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Looking forward to the end of the season when they’ll both claim to have been correct.
Hi
Here is my PWS report for November, located in the country, (RG7), south of Readingb UK.
As you can see so far this month, 6 early mornings when temp was below freezing point.
The temperature sensor is too high above ground, it is built into underside of mast unit, about 5 m above grass. I will add a another temp sensor 1.5 m above grass and see how they compare.
cheers Patrick
HEAT COOL AVG
MEAN DEG DEG WIND DOM
DAY TEMP HIGH TIME LOW TIME DAYS DAYS RAIN SPEED HIGH TIME DIR
—————————————————————————————
01 7.8 12.9 11:27 1.1 23:42 10.6 0.0 0.5 0.5 8.5 12:50 204
02 4.0 13.0 13:27 -1.0 05:44 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.2 12:52 62
03 4.7 9.6 12:14 -1.0 05:46 13.6 0.0 0.6 0.4 4.9 23:27 336
04 5.9 9.4 12:30 1.3 23:55 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.9 6.9 12:54 319
05 4.6 10.9 12:59 -2.5 06:49 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.3 12:28 328
06 10.1 12.5 13:55 6.6 00:00 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 7.4 14:57 219
07 8.5 12.5 14:12 2.3 23:59 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.8 8.9 12:30 313
08 6.8 11.6 13:19 -0.5 07:06 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.0 12:39 147
09 11.8 15.5 11:53 7.4 08:04 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 4.6 12:04 178
10 11.7 13.2 12:59 10.2 01:00 6.6 0.0 3.1 0.2 2.8 02:40 149
11 9.8 14.6 12:48 5.6 23:39 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.4 13:40 142
12 11.3 14.9 12:22 5.6 00:03 7.0 0.0 2.5 0.7 5.6 09:38 187
13 11.2 12.7 13:26 9.5 00:46 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 5.4 08:11 316
14 10.4 12.3 13:40 9.2 06:15 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 5.6 13:16 353
15 8.1 12.2 13:37 1.3 23:27 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.3 13:34 58
16 5.3 10.7 13:59 -1.4 06:04 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 3.0 13:38 91
17 6.1 12.5 13:20 1.3 23:57 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 5.2 11:43 317
18 8.3 14.1 13:58 1.1 00:08 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.2 14:19 314
19 10.3 11.5 12:14 7.1 00:05 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.8 06:40 329
20 8.9 10.3 11:47 6.1 20:39 9.5 0.0 0.4 0.1 2.8 13:41 321
21 5.8 9.0 00:28 2.6 22:48 12.5 0.0 0.0 1.3 8.3 13:23 348
22 4.4 10.0 13:41 0.4 23:58 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 6.2 12:28 356
23 2.1 8.9 14:13 -1.9 06:00 16.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.7 10:40 357
24 4.3 6.9 11:42 0.8 21:35 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.4 12:27 341
25 4.6 7.1 13:28 2.2 07:19 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.9 6.0 11:04 344
Ha. Plagiarizing from The Matrix. Caught ya!
We’re too sharp here for that. 😜
Life is to short to read, much less comprehend the implications of such a pile of numbers.
“There are huge implications for customers such as Government, the energy sector, media …” T
This century, when has the media been held accountable for getting it wrong? Vast majority will continue to appeal to their base, ignoring their mistakes.
“Who will blink first”?
It’s a contest now? And what if it turns out “who blinked” was actually right?
How about we accept that we have widely varying forecasts and simply be prepared for whatever happens?
Since Global Warming predicts both warm and cold cases, these forecasters are covered. No matter what occurs they will claim it is Global Warming.
But think about it…two major forecasters can’t agree on what will happen over the next 4 months using their state-of-the-art computer models…and yet climate “science” can predict climate over the next 100 years? This is laughable.
noone has predicted UK weather more than a few weeks ahead (some perhaps would say Piers Corbyn has a pretty good record though). The credibility of the Met Office and the BBC is pretty well zero when it comes to a seasonal prediction – they are laughably wrong most of the time.
The jetstream fluctuates wildly over the UK and the weather is so changeable and chaotic that forecasting is inaccurate after about a week. I have been trying to rely on these forecasts for most of my working life but more often than not they are just plain wrong.
Short version – WHO CARES
Tomorrow night Arctic air will cover all of Western Europe.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/11/27/0000Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-353.83,59.86,578
Due to the low over the North Sea, I predict snowfall.
The Met Office: Because global warming.
DTN: Because weak polar vortex.
Who to believe … who to believe?
Are either of those predictions actually testable predictions? Neither sounds like science to me. They both sound sloppy and unscientific enough that whatever weather comes they can claim they were partly right.
Seems to be generally agreed that UK winter is getting off to a cold start.
Not really surprising it is the end of November. Real issue is how well will the electricity supply cope. And second how are people going to cope with Covid this winter.
Stay warm and safe everyone . .
What will Winter 2030 be like?
All is well
If it’s warm the Met is right about CO2
If it’s cold the BBC is right about CO2
All bases covered.
Scientology at its finest
Please read these books, the two best books debunking climate change crap. Click the links to download a free copy. Please share with your family and friends.
The moral case for fossil fuels
http://library.lol/main/95AC3FC1E1D3768A2FF58A9556284B4E
Fake Invisible Catastrophes and Threats of Doom
http://library.lol/main/62F19352A7FD8FA7830C90D187094289
Global Warming causes Weather! Film at 11.
Climate Emergency! Winter may be cold or may be mild!
Need big research grants now to make sure the Sun still rises.
It was 10C higher for the dinosaurs in their world wide paradise, but one more degree will be disaster for us.
Hey come on give them a break.
WE all know it is impossible to be accurate about the next three months weather. But we can relax certain in the knowledge, they all know exactly what the climate will be in 100 years time with accuracy down the the last 0.001%
I am so grateful my as yet unborn great grandchildren will know what to expect, while I don’t know if I should put my snow treaded tyres on or not?
Yes.
It’s the MET office and the BBC, both fully on board with “catastrophic anthropogenic climate change”. It’s probable that both will be wrong at the same time.
They both just need to adjust the data to match their predictions – no problem! Settled.
When in doubt, go with the bigger doom story, they always have more glossy ads.
There were five incidents of major crop damage this year due to cold conditions. In the Northern Hemisphere European grape and olive crops were hit hard. In the Southern Hemisphere Brazil’s sugar, coffee, and second corn crop were badly damaged.