[Hmmmm……what used to be the number generally considered needed for epidemiological significance?
Pretty sure it was 100%. ~charles]
World’s largest study of the impact of temperature changes and kidney disease reveals that 7.4 per cent of all hospitalisations for renal disease can be attributed to an increase in temperature
MONASH UNIVERSITY
CREDIT: MONASH UNIVERSITY
Today the world’s largest study of the impact of temperature changes and kidney disease reveals that 7.4 per cent of all hospitalisations for renal disease can be attributed to an increase in temperature. In Brazil – where the study was focused – this equated to more than 202,000 cases of kidney disease from 2000-2015.
The study, led by Professor Yuming Guo and Dr Shanshan Li, from Planetary Health at Monash University and published in The Lancet Regional Health – Americas journal, for the first time quantifies the risk and attributable burden for hospitalizations of renal diseases related to ambient temperature using daily hospital admission data from 1816 cities in Brazil.
The study comes as the world focuses on the impact of climate change at the COP26 conference in Glasgow from 31 October.
In 2017, a landmark article in The Lancet declared renal diseases a global public health concern, estimating that almost 2.6 million deaths were attributable to impaired kidney function that year. Importantly the incidence of death from kidney disease had risen 26.6 per cent compared to a decade previously, an increase that this study may indicate was, in part, caused by climate change.
The study looked at a total of 2,726,886 hospitalizations for renal diseases recorded during the study period. According to Professor Guo, for every 1°C increase in daily mean temperature, there is an almost 1 per cent increase in renal disease, with those most impacted being women, children under 4 years of age and those 80+ years of age.
The associations between temperature and renal diseases were largest on the day of the exposure to extreme temperatures but remained for 1–2 days post-exposure.
In the paper the authors – who are also from the University of Sao Paulo – argue that the study “provides robust evidence that more policies should be developed to prevent heat-related hospitalisations and mitigate climate change.”
“In the context of global warming, more strategies and policies should be developed to prevent heat-related hospitalizations.”
The authors advise interventions should be urgently incorporated into government policy on climate change, including particularly targeting specific individuals, including females, children, adolescents, and the elderly, as they are more vulnerable to heat with regard to renal diseases.
“Moreover, attention should be paid to low- and middle-income countries like Brazil, where reliable heat warning systems and preventive measures are still in need,” Professor Guo added.
JOURNAL
The Lancet Regional Health – Americas
DOI
METHOD OF RESEARCH
Meta-analysis
SUBJECT OF RESEARCH
People
ARTICLE TITLE
Association between Ambient Temperature and Hospitalization for Renal Diseases in Brazil during 2000–2015: A Nationwide Case-Crossover Study
ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE
31-Oct-2021
COI STATEMENT
None
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I’ve been to Brazil three times over the decades and it was always hot (and humid).
Yes ,but nowadays you ain’t no real scientist if you don’t pull something out of your ass that can be blamed on global warming.
(This is the scientific version of “Trump is H!tler”.It is an elementary statement for the woke reputation )
And this one from a country that lost this year huge parts of crops and coffee trees as result of a cooler climate.
PS
Imagine you would blame the kidney diseases on vaccines or the fat corrupt chick that ruined the country for years.
Your carreer would be over in a second.
But use the Paul Ehrlich Methodology of scientific doom to push an agenda and you will be a hero,nomatter how incompetent you are.
Really? So presumably no renal disease in cold places like Scotland and Norway?
So just remember to stave off kidney disease dial your air conditioning up real cold 🙂
If everybody does that we’ll wind up as Snowball Earth again.
😜
No. Remember that an air conditioner pumps out more heat than cold. Therefore we’ll all fry.
Not if everyone opens their refrigerator doors at the same time.
😜
Canada too, not even renal disease specialists around here.
Indeed …. it is -10 C in Calgary Alberta this morning …. our kidneys are all froze solid 😉
Seriously Robber? Does the fact that some renal diseases are caused by hot weather really mean that all renal diseases are? Or did the idea that some outcomes such as kidney failure (or climate change) can have multiple causes never cross your mind?
You never seem to believe that there can be multiple causes for Climate Change ™. It’s always CO2, whatever happens.
What is it about socialists and their lack of humor?
Narcissism.
You cannot see other people’s perspective so you cannot appreciate humor.
Humor relies on double meanings, and an overall grasp of a social context.
The self-centered, self-important person has one context.
A psychiatrist blogger, “The Last Psychiatrist,” explained narcissism as seeing the world, including your entire life, as if you are the central character in a movie, and so everything is valued only vis-a-vis your interests or desires. You in fact have this world-as-movie psychology to sustain the regular need for admiration.
IMO, some people experience childhoods that may make them be genuinely narcissistic. But I also believe that we are rasing people to have a condition mirroring narcissism: this view of always being right, always watching out for how you are being aggrieved, always being catered-to, and so on.
I do a lot of research training with young adults. With some, you have to be quite brash to get a direction or instruction through to them. And, of course, your evaluation from them is a leading metric of how well you did on your role.
So, when you are the first person to wake someone up, metaphorically, to teh real world, you look like your are the worst trainer / mentor.
They are humorless because they are busy being SJW.
Any one with a sense of humor must be capable of laughing at themselves, and seeing the irony of what we people do in life. Obviously DemoCommies do not do humor.
Moderators …. can there be a stupid of the day prize for folks like Izaak and Griff. You could award it immediately and then move it later if necessary if / when for example Griff manages to out do Isaak’s stupidity.
Please consider a dunce cap award.
Nah, downvoting and witty on topic replies have been good enough.
Careful – suggesting that “… some outcomes such as … climate change … can have multiple causes …” will get you into serious truble. The One True Cause is increasing CO2. Go to the board and write that 100 times.
In Scotland don’t they mostly die of liver failure due to excessive whisky consumption? Or else they die of exposure to cold weather while wearing kilts?
In Norway they die mostly of frustration with the welfare state and its crushing bureaucracy.
Apparently this study reveals that simply going from winter to summer anywhere on the planet will give you renal disease … no matter where you live on the planet, weather continually has warm spells, in between cold spells.
Also, everyone migrating from up north to the Sun Belt is obviously going to come down with acute renal disease.
Everyone who takes a hot shower is going to instantly keel over from renal disease.
No, only 7.4% of the people would develop acute renal disease.
This is, of course, complete bovine excrement.
There is an explosion of kidney disease, but it is overwhelmingly due to the type 2 diabetes epidemic.
(Which, in turn, is largely caused by following the high carb / high seed oil dietary recommendations of governments and NGOs.)
Climate Science ™ only requires correlation it doesn’t require causation linking because it isn’t like real science.
This study takes the piss out of science. As you say correlation does not imply causation. What evidence of causation do they have
So the increase in kidney disease could also be caused by:
– increased per capita GDP
– increased consumption of social media
– increased crime rate
– increased homicide rate
– increased unemployment rate
and a whole bunch of others; take your pick. Causation unnecessary, just correlation.
Nah UFO’s they have been on the increase
Not enough pirates.
Under-rated comment right here. May you be blessed by the great ones noodly appendage.
Or in Brazil’s case to much Caipirinha drinking, Brazil’s national drink.
https://www.thespruceeats.com/caipirinha-recipe-759290
Did they factor in, or rather out, population growth?
I’m type Two. Low carb, cook with a high non seed oil (several types) ignore the recommended diet of the dietician who can’t figure out why my A1C is very normal.
Wonder how long it will be before this paper ends up on Retraction Watch as another case of over-zealous research?
About a week after CoP-26 is over.
You have zero knowledge about human physiology, do you? Diabetes is caused by fatty acid accumulation in muscles and liver. DAGs block insulin signaling pathways, which hinders GLUT4 translocation in muscles and down regulating of glucose production in liver.
Dietary meat, eggs and dairy are the main source of saturated fat consumption, which is responsible for the increase in hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and diabetes, all of which drive kidney disease.
The average US citizen consumes a staggering 2.6 pounds of meat, eggs and dairy per day.
But people drink more water when it’s hot, which would reduce the incidence of renal disease. Can these authors spell “scientific fraud”?
Not necessarily. Often people drink more alcohol, or caffeinated cold drinks drinks. Those are diuretics.
Maybe the increase in renal disease is due to an increase in drinking Red Bull.
The increased incidence in under-4-year-olds is just incompetent parents allowing babies to dehydrate on hot days.
Really? For the half-degree increase over many decades? What utter nonsense!
What little warming there has been has been concentrated in areas that have very little water vapor in the atmosphere.
For areas like Brazil that have always been hot and very, very humid, there is little to no increase in temperature.
Exactly. This source indicates 0.5 deg C warming since 1980.
https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/brazil/climate-data-historical
They do indicate more warming in the dry season, but also the typical trend of more warming at night than during the day.
“Today the world’s largest study of the impact of temperature changes and kidney disease reveals that 7.4 per cent of all hospitalisations for renal disease can be attributed to an increase in temperature.”
-> What are the causes of the other 92.6%?
“The study looked at a total of 2,726,886 hospitalizations for renal diseases”
-> Did the researchers cross-check the day of all 2.7 million hospitalizations with the local temperature at the time of hospitalization?
Of course not. They just assume that Brazil must have warmed up by the amount predicted by the sacred models. No need for actual data. Not that any exists.
Brazils population is increasing by 0.7% a year.
Ad to this an old boomer age group and food that gets more and more contaminated by sugar + gmo’s and a steady increase of poverty = You will get an increase in terms of illnesses all over the place even if the climate does not change.
How did I know you would be paranoid about gmo’s as well?
Everyone is paranoid to people with a specific mindset,no matter left or right.
The funny thing is :
The idiots from the left who pretend to hate big corp but parrot all their stuff like dogs,
So crazy that they protest today against death penalty and tomorrow pro abortion until 9 month.
And their mirror image from the right who kiss the same corporate butts that are destroying their countries.
They will today protest vaccines and tomorrow be pro gmo,
though both cases have delivered such horrible results that gmo’ s got kicked out of several countries and thst Obama had to sign the monsanto protection act to protect them from law ( there’s a reason why nature did not allow certain combinations)
and that pharmacompanies can not be held accountable for vaccines failures since the 80ies.
Low IQ idiots like you have been believing in the crap the cigarette companies said decades ago in terms of health
and they are still eating their shit ,now not about cigarettes but about food .
Enjoy the taste of poo,sir.
And as soon your gmo phantasy island is dead (You will need 2 decades to realise)you will follow some other stupidity like a dog.
I voted based on your civility.
Maybe they used the Surgisphere Database. 😉
Peter asks:
”Did the researchers cross-check the day of all 2.7 million hospitalizations with the local temperature at the time of hospitalization?”
And the answer is actually yes. If you bother to read the paper you would see that that is exactly what they did. Fig. 2 of their paper shows a monotonic increasing risk of hospitalisation for kidney disease with daily mean temperature. The risk then drops back down to normal after about 3 days (Fig. 3). In Brazil for whatever reason the hotter the daily temperature the more likely it is that you will be admitted to hospital due to a renal failure.
Or maybe the locals with chronic kidney problems decide to present at hospital when it’s hot because the hospital has air conditioning?
Again look at the paper. Fig 2 shows that the risk increases monotonically with temperature starting from 5 degrees (relative risk of 0.8) to 35 degrees. I doubt if anyone is going to the hospital for the airconditioning when the temperature is 20 degrees.
No, but its likely that on hotter days people drink more and put more pressure on their kidneys. Its pretty clear climate change isn’t a cause whichever way you look at it.
They say “Confounders like age, sex, income, and lifestyle, which unlikely change in such a short period, can be effectively controlled by this method with the self-matched design.”
Firstly, the major confounding factor of diabetes wasn’t even looked at.
From https://dmsjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13098-020-00593-5
We have “BackgroundBrazil is one of top 10 countries with the highest number of people with diabetes mellitus (DM), affecting 16.8 million peoples. It is estimated that 7.7 million people (20–79 years) in the country have not yet been diagnosed, representing an under-diagnosis rate of 46.0%. Herein we aimed to screen people for high blood glucose or risk for developing type 2 DM (T2DM) through community pharmacies in Brazil.”
And if you look at this https://www.diabetesatlas.org/data/en/country/27/br.html
you can see the incidence of diabetes is increasing quickly.
This is a rubbish paper.
You are suggesting that otherwise healthy people are at increased risk of renal failure when the temperature is above 5 degrees C? That suggests to me that what is being observed is a spurious correlation!
You actually read the paper? You must have a lot of time on your hands.
On this one, just look at the title for all the information you need.
What ever happened to not judging a book by its title? I guess if you don’t want your preconceived ideas challenged then you need to think or read.
Does it make you even slightly suspicious when a change of 1ﾟ- Which is not humanly perceptible – Is being cast as a causal factor in kidney failure? The temperature change when you go from one room to another is more. The temperature change when you go from the shade to a sunlit area is more.
The temperature change on a cloudy vs sunny day is MUCH more.
This study reminds me of the sea level study that was claiming a sub-millimeter increase in sea level rate of change is happening based on measurements with multi-meter margins of error.
C’mon, Barry!
Izack’s role is not to question why; just look up the name that Marxist’s gave their fellow travelers in other free countries!
All what i see in the paper is: “at certain temperature threshholds, our body will have to function more, therefore a “failure” of the body is more likely.”
But i am pretty sure that diet, pollution from mining, traffic,… will have a definite more real impact then climate
Correlation does not prove causation. There was once a significant relationship between ladies hem lines and the stock market, might still be.
Yes but this is Climate Science ™ and bears no relationship to real science. The fact that the finding is child stupid and yet you watch the media and climate science industry won’t bat an eyelid in promoting it as a climate science fact.
What??? Next you will say pirate extinction has nothing to do with the global warming!
They are just ramping up the climate porn for the Crap26 extravaganza.
The Lancet? Another harum-scarum bucket of bilge from the most discredited junk medical mag in history.
Take any phenomenon, call it an “effect”, regress it against one solitary explanatory variable: “climate change”, ignore every other possible, logical causal factor, do some crappy stats, derive a wee pee value, and presto! you will have proved that Communism will save the world.
Then huddle in your mud hut in the cold and dark while the Ruling Elite rob you all you own, and you too can take credit for curing every malady — except starvation, your booby prize.
As the cases of kidney disease have increased in Brazil over the last 15 years, I am positive that the number of Apple iphones has also increased.
QED, iphones cause kidney disease.
Please send my Nobel Prize and my 100 million dollars in grant funds for further research to my address of record!
Personally I think that the probable cause is the use of cell phones. That correlation works just as well.
Does that correlate to the apparent increase in brain damage and depression?
”Peer reviewed” ….. My eyes are sad….
It doesn’t even pass the pub test so the “Peer reviewed” claim is slightly troubling.
More woke nonsense!
COLD WEATHER KILLS 20 TIMES AS MANY PEOPLE AS HOT WEATHER September 4, 2015
https://friendsofsciencecalgary.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/cold-weather-kills-macrae-daleo-4sept2015-final.pdf
THE REAL CLIMATE CRISIS IS NOT GLOBAL WARMING, IT IS COOLING, AND IT MAY HAVE ALREADY STARTED October 27, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/27/the-real-climate-crisis-is-not-global-warming-it-is-cooling-and-it-may-have-already-started/
SCIENTIFIC COMPETENCE – THE ABILITY TO CORRECTLY PREDICT October 20, 2021
http://correctpredictions.ca/
“According to Professor Guo, for every 1°C increase in daily mean temperature, there is an almost 1 per cent increase in renal disease…”
Therefore the temperature in Brazil must have increased by 7C in 15 years if Professor Guo is correct. I think not. In fact, check here https://www.climatestotravel.com/climate/brazil
to see that that Brazil’s temperature hasn’t changed much for the past 30 years.
Obviously that website is not a peer reviewed scientific journal so it’s information information is is based upon evil right wing conspiracies. I’m sure Griff or someone knows all about it.
“…attributed to an increase in temperature….”
You can substitute “attributed to an increase in use of non-steroidal anti inflammatories” and get a higher ‘p’….
It was the UFO’s that did it .. see here is the UFO sightings in Brazil
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFO_sightings_in_Brazil
They UFO sightings have been clearly increasing and so the Renal Failure is clearly a result … Climate Science ™ in action.
I, as your financially compensated un-elected official functionary, hereby decree that we must immediately have temperate climate citizens who book travel to warm climates sign a legal release from liability to tropical countries’ tourist promotion boards, travel agents and airlines; with all ports of entry posting prominent warnings in every language that doing so is a risk to one’s kidneys. Countries, tropical or otherwise, with a determined temperature level potentially affecting any kidney what-so-ever shall have police empowered to detain anyone venturing forth into such ambient conditions under authorization enacted following The Science adherence to public safety. Australia officials are to be tasked with establishing such protocols immediately, due to sterling performance in 2020 & 2021 administering edicts relevant to a virus management. The UnitedNations can divert funding to a new agency set up to promote this under the acronym F.A.U.C.I. and any social media posts, songs or Tucker Carlson broadcast implying the letters stand for “foolish and utter crap idea” must be banned.
What would we do without studies? Studies are a dime a dozen and you can get one to say anything you want. Two years from now, when renal cases start fall, they’ll blame that on warmer temps as well.
Heck, we’ve all heard about how warmer temps are going to cause severe wind storms and increases in hurricanes and tornados. Then wind speeds fell throughout Europe so the wind turbines wouldn’t produce power. So, they came out with a new study that said – guess what – global warming causes lower wind speeds. Presto.
Global warming – is there anything it can’t do?
It can’t seem to shut them up, I wish it could do everything
Sadly, it is far more likely that global temperatures will start to fall than renal failure!
With increases in diabetes, obesity, the use of OTC anti-inflammitories and increased reliance on highly processed foods full of empty carbs and vegetable oils; the incidence of renal failure will continue to grow! If only it was temperature related, then a little AC could cure it!
So divided over the number of days in the year and divided over the 1816 cities taking part in the study makes it 4 hospitalizations per day per city. 4 per city per day plus 1% is?
When it gets warmer people drink more. I have never been there but my sister lived there for a couple of years and it would seem that the drinking water there is not necessarily all that clean. Drinking more unclean water leads to more kidney problems, amongst other things, according to WHO.
In the meantime the population increased by 23% over the last 20 years and having days of more than 100F in Rio is not uncommon in summer.
Yes I would expect an increase in renal failure on warm days if the population increased by that much and the water quality does not get sorted.
I know a couple, otherwise sane, who live in Needles, California. It is routinely over 100°F there in the summer, sometimes well over. Neither shows any signs of renal failure although I fear for their livers, given the amount of wine they consume.
I’m looking for a 97% consensus on how high you need to go (feet, AGL) to avoid the Heat Island Affect? This way NOAA can’t claim “heat island” temperature bias — and this should negate kidney issues too (just kidding on the kidney thing). I’m analyzing radiosonde data.
Wow
Didn’t it snow in Brazil this year? ….I guess the next study in the hopper is how global warming in the tropic causes frostbite.
Another paper from another (two) Chinese nationals propagating global warming.
And another racist comment from a poster here. There are 6 authors on the paper who are either from Monash University in Australia or the University of San Paolo in Brazil.
And another socialist declaring that everything they disagree with is racism.
Isick,
Do you practice feigning outrage in the mirror, or do you take classes for it!?
For a climate catastrophist to claim racism, they have to have unmitigated gall or the biggest pair of blinkers possible! Look at how uniformly Climastrology policies negatively affect poor people in Third World countries, and then get back to us!
“And another racist comment from a poster here.”
That’s pitiful, I don’t downvote any comments, (even yours normally) but you get a big minus for being the biggest pratt on here today.
Grow up ffs.
Pointing out someone’s nationality is racist. Huh.
Time to just ridicule every warm-monger prediction or scare tactic.
Wow I didn’t know.
That is the reply to use when confronted by these dopes.
I would say this paper has a 100% correlation to poor scholarship and cargo-cult “science”. It certainly doesn’t pass the sniff test as anything resembling real science, more flushable crap.
“In the context of global warming, more strategies and policies should be developed to prevent heat-related hospitalizations.”
Have they thought about drink more water and take breaks?