I read today that the EU is using an estimate of US$68 per tonne of CO2 emissions for the purported cost of the damages done by CO2. This is known by a Newspeak term as the “Social Cost Of Carbon”.
It made me wonder—using this estimate, what is the overall total estimated damage done by humans from emitting CO2?
The answer is $97 TRILLION dollars since 1950.
YIKES! That’s about five times the 2020 US Gross Domestic Product (the value of everything produced in the US during that year).
So I thought I’d take a look at the various largest weather-related disasters. I got the big-disaster data from Wikipedia here and arranged it by type of disaster. All values are in 2020 dollars, that is to say, they’re adjusted for inflation. Here is the result.
|$0.116||1988–89 North American drought|
|$0.060||2012–13 North American drought|
|$0.032||1980 United States heat wave|
|$0.003||2017 Montana wildfires|
|$0.028||Cyclones Lothar and Martin|
|$0.031||Cyclones Daria, Vivian, and Wiebke|
|$0.009||Great Storm of 1987|
|$0.10||TOTAL EUROPEAN WINDSTORMS|
|$0.053||2011 Thailand floods|
|$0.032||2020 China floods|
|$0.028||2002 European floods|
|$0.031||Great Flood of 1993|
|$0.013||2016 Louisiana floods|
|$0.012||June 2008 Midwest floods|
|$0.007||2013 Alberta floods|
|$0.003||2019 Midwestern U.S. floods|
|$0.003||2017 Minneapolis hailstorm|
|$0.002||2017 Denver hailstorm|
|$0.001||2020 Calgary hailstorm|
|$0.003||June 2012 North American derecho|
|$0.012||August 2020 Midwest derecho|
|$0.02||TOTAL SEVERE STORMS|
|$0.012||2011 Super Outbreak|
|$0.006||Tornado outbreak sequence of May 2003|
|$0.003||2011 Joplin tornado|
|$0.003||Tornado outbreak sequence of May 2019|
|$0.002||Tornado outbreak of March 6–7, 2017|
|$0.013||Tropical Storm Allison|
|$0.005||Tropical Storm Imelda|
|$1.18||TOTAL TROPICAL CYCLONES|
|$0.020||February 13–17, 2021 North American winter storm|
|$0.010||1993 Storm of the Century|
|$0.002||2011 Groundhog Day blizzard|
|$0.03||TOTAL WINTER STORMS|
|$0.072||2019–20 Australian bushfire season|
|$0.025||2018 California wildfires|
|$0.016||October 2017 Northern California wildfires|
|$0.010||2016 Fort McMurray wildfire|
|$0.008||Black Saturday bushfires|
|$0.001||2016 Great Smoky Mountains wildfires|
|$0.001||2011 Slave Lake wildfire|
|$1.89||OVERALL TOTAL ($ trillion)|
Hmmm … no matter how you slice it, that’s less than two trillion dollars …
Now, to be sure, there must be a variety of smaller disasters that didn’t make the list. So let’s be conservative, and call the disaster total four times that, or $8 trillion dollars.
To check that value, I looked at the EMDAT Disaster Database. It contains no less than 11,654 detailed records of flood, wildfire, drought, storm, and extreme temperature disasters since 1950. The smallest of these had damages of $4.6 million dollars ($0.0000046 trillion). So it’s catching even very small disasters.
In 2020 dollars, the EMDAT database says that the total cost of those disasters since 1950 is about $10 trillion dollars.
So let us make the obviously incorrect and untenable assumption that 100% of those disaster costs are ascribable to the evil influence of CO2. It’s obviously not true by an order of magnitude or more, but let’s assume that each and every disaster is all 100% from CO2 for the purposes of discussion.
And given even that incorrect and wildly exaggerated assumption, the obvious question is … where is the other $87 trillion dollars of purported CO2 damages from weather-related disasters since 1950?
And it gets much worse if we don’t assume that 100% of the responsibility is due to CO2. Suppose we say (still an exaggeration) that 10% of the responsibility comes from CO2. That would mean that we are missing, not $87 trillion in disasters, but $960 trillion in disasters …
(Let me say that this kind of error, of just picking a random goal like “Net-Zero 2050” or just calculating a value for something like the “Social Cost of Carbon” and not testing the result for reasonableness against real-world data, is far too common in the world of climate “science”. I discuss this issue about “Net-Zero 2050” in my post “Bright Green Impossibilities“.)
And to repeat … where are the missing $87 trillion dollars in damages purportedly caused by so-called “climate disasters”?
My best to all,
AS ALWAYS: I ask that when you comment you quote the exact words you are discussing. I can defend my own words. I cannot defend your interpretation of my words. Thanks.