Date: 25/09/21
GWPF International
Having banned fracking in much of Europe and with low wind speeds compounding the continent’s energy crisis, gas prices in the UK and much of Europe are going through the roof. A shortage of affordable natural gas is forcing European companies to switch to coal to survive a bleak winter.

Low wind speeds have compounded the continent’s energy crisis, prompting utilities to turn to coal to bridge the shortfall.
The deepening energy crisis comes at a time when Western governments are trying to push emerging and developing countries to agree Net Zero targets at COP26 in Glasgow later this year.
Europe’s embarrassing coal comeback will make any Net Zero demands almost impossible for politicians from the UK and Europe not least because they are also dealing with the growing fear of a voter backlash from the cost of Net Zero and rising energy bills.
The Spectator’s editorial this week as spot on when it warned Boris Johnson that instead leading the world on Net Zero he “should be prepared for other countries to see, in his energy policy, an example of what not to do”.
Europe’s energy crisis: A switch back to coal is on the cards
UK among nations facing a ‘bleak winter’ with consumers at risk of being unable to heat their homes
European utility providers are preparing to switch to alternative energy sources to meet demand, including carbon-rich coal, as gas supply problems continue, analysts have said.
If energy providers are forced to compete for the limited amount of gas supply, prices will continue to soar with costs “inevitably” passed down to consumers.
“The long and short of it is that, unless there is a mild winter or an ease in demand, the EU utilities will have to look to alternative energy sources to meet the demand,” said Slava Kiryushin, global head of energy at DWF, an international provider of legal and business services.
“While most may read ‘alternative energy sources’ as “renewables”, the energy market may have an alternative definition: coal,”
While upping coal production will not be welcomed by many as Europe looks to lower its carbon emissions to meet climate change targets, it is a far more economic source of fuel, Mr Kiryushin said.
“It remains to be seen how the European utilities will balance the rise in carbon emissions and consumer sentiment against the unavailability or unaffordability of power from less carbon-intensive sources.”
European coal for lined up for delivery next year rose to its highest level since 2008 on Friday, on strong demand from power stations and low stockpiles.
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“It remains to be seen how the European utilities will balance the rise in carbon emissions and consumer sentiment against the unavailability or unaffordability of power from less carbon-intensive sources.” If they had half a brain they would realize CO2 is not a problem and ignore the greenies. The world is wasting billions of dollars chasing a foolish idea. If they really wanted to help the poor they would take that money and put ii into businesses to employ them.
This is a serious situation but one cannot escape from noting the twist of irony at the prospect of having people freezing to death due to nonsensical attempts to thwart a slight warming that is too small to be noticed by people without the aid of thermometers and by measures that would reduce temperatures by an amount so tiny it could never be measured anyway. And all the while China alone will increase it’s emissions by many times the total of all UK emissions in the next decade and yet will be hailed as a climate leader by the same fanatical green groups that claim the world will boil unless this immeasurable local action to reach net zero is taken.
Just check out Gridwatch: coal offline for most of last week.
I switched to using BM Reports (for most “metered” sources) and ESO (for “Embedded” Wind and Solar + interconnect export values) about 18 months ago because Gridwatch was a bit labour-intensive to work with (I ended up using a C program to “curate / filter out” the occasional “obviously wrong” value).
“Coal” output was indeed reduced for the last 5 days of the available data (since the 22nd of September, i.e. last Wednesday), with 4 of those 5 days registering “0.0” GWh output (see graph below).
NB : If anyone can see any (major) differences between the Gridwatch data and my graph below, please point them out (with specific dates and numbers !).
Let’s see what else is true …
– – – – –
From Wikipedia’s “Wind power in the United Kingdom” page (direct link), which is a good a place as any to start checking the actual data …
~24.2 GW x 24 (hours) = (just over) 580 GWh “nameplate capacity” per day.
My graph is for “the island of Great Britain” rather than “the UK” (which includes Northern Ireland, connected to GB via the Moyle and East-West inter-connectors …), but for the chosen period (since the 1st of August 2021) the peak output for “WInd” was around 300 GWh (on the 13th of August).
300 / 580 ~= 51.5% … and that’s the peak output !
On each of the 24-hour periods labelled “2/8” and “3/8” below the output for “Wind” was 24 GWh, or roughly four percent of that 580 GWh “nominal capacity” …
– – – – –
Looking at my graph for the UK some “obvious” questions that arise include (but are by no means limited to) :
1a) What happened to “Wind” output from the 19th of August to the 21st of September ?
1b) Which source of electricity “took up the slack” during that period ?
2a) What happened to “Wind” on the 25th (two days ago, i.e. Saturday) ?
2b) Which source of electricity “took up the slack” that particular day ?
3) Do you (plural) really want to rely on “Wind + Solar (+ Biomass ?) + Batteries” for GB’s electricity grid ?
Check out January of this year:
2021/01/07: IC Nsl: 0.00 IC Nem: 0.905 IC Ew: 0.00540 IC Irl: 0.0120 IC Ned: 0.00 IC2 France: 0.00 IC France: 0.879 Other: 0.269 Hydro: 0.559 Pumped Hydro: 0.323 Ocgt: 0.192 Oil: 0.00 Coal: 2.85 Solar: 0.436 Wind: 3.39 Biomass: 2.56 Ccgt: 19.6 Nuclear: 5.87
Or later in the month this past January:
2020/01/22: IC Nsl: 0.00 IC Nem: 0.0904 IC Ew: -0.490 IC Irl: -0.427 IC Ned: 0.136 IC2 France: 0.00 IC France: 1.12 Other: 0.179 Hydro: 0.810 Pumped Hydro: 0.284 Ocgt: 0.115 Oil: 0.00 Coal: 2.21 Solar: 0.186 Wind: 1.89 Biomass: 2.77 Ccgt: 21.8 Nuclear: 6.88
With a double-dip La Nina in the offing, the coming winter could be a much colder than normal one.
So we could be in for a double-whammy of bleak winter!