Reposted from the NoTricksZone
By P Gosselin on 7. August 2021
From Die kalte Sonne
The German Weather Service (DWD) published its weather summary for July 2021:
July 2021 was significantly too wet, slightly too warm and lacked sunshine. […] In July, an average of about 110 liters per square meter (l/m²) fell nationwide and thus almost 40 percent more precipitation than the average of the reference period 1961 to 1990 (78 l/m²). Compared with the period 1991 to 2020, the increase was nearly 25 percent.”
Summer rains have returned
The DWD complained about summer drought several years in a row. Now the July rains are back. Climate is variable – which is weather. We look at July rains in a graph:
Shown are the individual values (July 2021: 110 mm) and the trend line since 1950, showing little change. Added to this is a 12-year low pass indicating internal variability. The thick line meanders back and forth without a trend in either direction. Using the new reference period (1991-2020), the DWD hides a period of lower precipitation before it, so now “too dry” appears in press releases more often. Not so this year.
No precipitation July trend change at all
There is apparently no trend toward less rain in Germany in July, even with global warming. Anyone drew conclusions based on the below-average values after 2017 is simply confusing weather with climate. We already had the observed similar deviation from the mean in the 1960s to 1980s. It’ll be interesting to see how the short-term media-born fairy tale of less precipitation in the summer in this country will be “corrected” in the coming years.
July 2021 normal using 1991 – 2020 mean
For temperature, July-2021 hit exactly the mean of the current period 1991 to 2020, which is good news. So the DWD also compares it with the old, discarded reference period to justify it was “a bit too warm” on its press release. DWD:
The July 2021 temperature average of 18.3 degrees Celsius (°C) was 1.4 degrees above the value of the internationally valid reference period 1961 to 1990 and at the same time exactly hit the average of the current and warmer period 1991 to 2020. Thus, the month was even cooler and little more summery than June.”
You just have to go back far enough, then you can make up the appropriate statement. Here is the graph:
You can see a warming trend: it is now about 1.5°C warmer in July than it was in the 70s. There is a lot of variability here as well. The unchallenged leader is still the year 2006. So the decadal filtered average (bold) remains at about 18.6°C since 2004, currently we saw 18.3°C. Consequence of the warming thus: Warming, as not to be expected differently.
Perhaps they should adjust that temperature graph for the percent area which was paved with black asphalt and the amount of green vegetation that was removed. Changing the albedo and hydrology of the surface changes the temperature in the boundary layer.
It doesn’t matter what the actual measurements say, the green shirt media just keeps repeating the same lies, using doomsday predictions as fact, even ignoring the rare honest factoid in IPCC reports.
The whole movement has a dangerous amount of momentum, to the point of cutting down forests to ‘save the environment’ with palm oil plantations and wind farms. The dumb brainwashed idiots don’t realize they’ve been played by Big Green industrial interests.
Facts just seem to count for nothing.
Flood in some place while drought in another, on balance everything normal. Of course, if you are in the flood or drought it is hard to appreciate this.
The AGW fearmongers are relentless in their propaganda.
But, but, …. climate change….but ….but
Griff, help me out here mate
This is just my experience but I spent 2 to 3 weeks in Germany in July most years between 1999 and 2018. During that time I experienced very little rain. Most years there might have been a few days with some rain. On the other hand I arrived at Passau one year to find the rivers Inn and Danube rising fast and flooding many of the streets. Another year there had been flooding along the Elbe a few months before my arrival and they were still clearing up afterwards. It was interesting to observe the different levels of the River Rhine. Some years it was quite high, some it was much lower. Again, one year there had been flooding in the Rhine Valley in the months before I arrived.I remember one year seeing reports on the television of serious flooding much furtherr north than I was staying. Flooding in Germany in nothing new. Marks on buildings showing how high the water reached are common in Germany. This one is in Passau.
Nope … wrong. Disagreement with your contribution is universal.
How would we know if any part of the ocean was suffering drought or flooding conditions? I’m guessing we don’t have the right instrumentation in the right places to know this.
If I were to have a point outside of general curiosity, it might be, how much confidence can there be that the 20’ish% of the globe we habitate is representative of the remaining 80% of the globe?
Don’t these two graphs show that an increase in temperature does not cause an increase in rainfall?
It’s a hidden, lied about fact, that the big shiny ball thing in the sky that apparently sits at the centre of the Solar System (more or less), possesses in excess of 99.9% of the mass of said Solar System, & is a giant fusion reactor converting hydrogen into helium every second, has no effect on said Solar System whatsoever, fact, absolutely!!! The fact that the Martian icecap has been melting over a similar observed period goes un-announced!!!
There’s a difference between the average remaining the same and the rainfall arriving in heavier, concentrated bursts to the same amount…
A flood with months worth of rain arriving in 24 hours, intense rainfall of the level seen at Cologne, for example, where previous record beaten by 50%, isn’t ‘rainfall remaining on trend’.
The Californian drought then rivers of rain thing isn’t the average staying on trend either.
Using the source data (DWD Climate Data Centre), average July temperatures in Germany have increased by +3.4°C in total since 1970.
Data are here. Germany as a whole is the last column in each respective month. I used the ‘Linest’ function in Excel to calculate the linear trend: https://opendata.dwd.de/climate_environment/CDC/regional_averages_DE/monthly/air_temperature_mean/
Apparently Pierre feels compelled to downplay any observed warming, even where it helps his own argument!
Don’t fall for the warmunista’s claims about global warming causing drought … they just as frequently claim that global warming causes too much precipitation, flooding, etc.
Physics says that a warming planet would necessarily have a wetter atmosphere. The vapor pressure of liquid water increases with temperature, and the saturation concentration of water vapor in air also increases with temperature.
Yet the warmunistas shout “drought” .. and at the same time, shout “flooding”, and “extreme this or that” incessantly.
This is the classic unfalsifiable claim – no matter what the data show, they blame it on global warming.