Reposted from the NoTricksZone
By P Gosselin on 7. August 2021
From Die kalte Sonne
The German Weather Service (DWD) published its weather summary for July 2021:
July 2021 was significantly too wet, slightly too warm and lacked sunshine. […] In July, an average of about 110 liters per square meter (l/m²) fell nationwide and thus almost 40 percent more precipitation than the average of the reference period 1961 to 1990 (78 l/m²). Compared with the period 1991 to 2020, the increase was nearly 25 percent.”
Summer rains have returned
The DWD complained about summer drought several years in a row. Now the July rains are back. Climate is variable – which is weather. We look at July rains in a graph:
Shown are the individual values (July 2021: 110 mm) and the trend line since 1950, showing little change. Added to this is a 12-year low pass indicating internal variability. The thick line meanders back and forth without a trend in either direction. Using the new reference period (1991-2020), the DWD hides a period of lower precipitation before it, so now “too dry” appears in press releases more often. Not so this year.
No precipitation July trend change at all
There is apparently no trend toward less rain in Germany in July, even with global warming. Anyone drew conclusions based on the below-average values after 2017 is simply confusing weather with climate. We already had the observed similar deviation from the mean in the 1960s to 1980s. It’ll be interesting to see how the short-term media-born fairy tale of less precipitation in the summer in this country will be “corrected” in the coming years.
July 2021 normal using 1991 – 2020 mean
For temperature, July-2021 hit exactly the mean of the current period 1991 to 2020, which is good news. So the DWD also compares it with the old, discarded reference period to justify it was “a bit too warm” on its press release. DWD:
The July 2021 temperature average of 18.3 degrees Celsius (°C) was 1.4 degrees above the value of the internationally valid reference period 1961 to 1990 and at the same time exactly hit the average of the current and warmer period 1991 to 2020. Thus, the month was even cooler and little more summery than June.”
You just have to go back far enough, then you can make up the appropriate statement. Here is the graph:
You can see a warming trend: it is now about 1.5°C warmer in July than it was in the 70s. There is a lot of variability here as well. The unchallenged leader is still the year 2006. So the decadal filtered average (bold) remains at about 18.6°C since 2004, currently we saw 18.3°C. Consequence of the warming thus: Warming, as not to be expected differently.
Perhaps they should adjust that temperature graph for the percent area which was paved with black asphalt and the amount of green vegetation that was removed. Changing the albedo and hydrology of the surface changes the temperature in the boundary layer.
For the UK there is a near zero trend since since 1860 as measured by single permanent location at the Oxford University’s Radcliffe weather observatory. You can not get better record than that
Of course there are dry or wet periods lasting few years, all driven by natural causes starting with sunspot cycles, 3-4 years el/la Nino, 9 years AMO sub-cycle, 30 year AMO & PDO high & low periods. Some time two or more get in phase, other times out of phase so we get ‘the end of world is nigh’ from floods or droughts but all of it is nature at work.
“You can not get better record than that”
How about the whole country?
How about the whole country? How about the whole Europe? How about the whole of the world? You have a good long think about it, my friend.
Wile Germany, Belgium, parts of the UK etc are flooded, Greece & Turkey are burning in +40C plus temperatures.
Don’t know what you’re on about “my friend”
You posted a graph that confirmed your bias – that there was no increasing rainfall trend for the UK (using a station, that “You can not get better record …”)
I posted the trend for the whole UK .. which shows an increasing trend over the last 40 years.
Showing that your cherry-picked “For the UK there is a near zero trend since since 1860”
Is not correct.
That’s all.
No comment about droughts or temps – just rainfall.
So a strawman I’m not biting on, my friend.
Since you ask, here what I suggest you might want to think about:
1.How many weather stations is necessary to include for determination of the UK’s centenary precipitation trend?
2.What is acceptable area in square miles to be adequately represented by an individual station’s records (10? 100? 1,000? 10,000? or 93,628?)
3.Has the record missing data?
4.Has location mowed?
5.Has record been taken and logged by a suitably qualified reader since 1860?
A good precipitation specializing scientist may think of more questions, but I’m not one, in which case I would maintain that Oxford’s University Radcliffe observatory gives positive answer to all of the above.
You are free to do your own reasoning, but until either of us changes view we happen to disagree and for time being that is that.
Your graph appears to be mislabelled. The dashed line marked trend in fact seems to be some sort of running average while the pink line labelled 1981 to 2010 seems to be the trend for that period and it seems very close to zero.
The pink line represents average annual UK rainfall between 1981 and 2010. It is not a trend line. It’s just there for indicative purposes.
Paul Homewood has shown that any recent increase in UK rainfall is restricted to Scotland which proves the point Vuk has made about how large an area do you use for measurement. In addition, Paul has also shown that the introduction of automatic rain gauges located on remote hills damages the validity of long term records.
Firstly, the alarmist prediction for UK is more winter rain and less summer rain.
Secondly, across UK locations have different rainfall, with different annual distribution.
Example Dover has more winter rain, while Cambridge has more summer rain, but Dover has more annual rain.
To use annual rain for the entire country proves nothing.
Agree, global warming is not for one place and not for another. It might show precipitation trend going up or might show trend going down. No change in the trend suggests to me there is either no global warming or no relationship between global warming and precipitation for town of Oxford (what a lucky lot). If there is an alternative explanation I would like to know what it might be.
But probably better than using daily data from a single location to estimate trends over an entire region, no?
It’s almost like using one bunch of trees in a small area to produce a hockey stick shaped graph that claims to represents global temperatures, isn’t it?
Now, where have I seen that before? Oh yeah, I remember, it had something to do with bristlecone pines….
FYI, the Biased Broadcasting Corporation news has just announced yet again, that volunteer fire-fighters are heading off to Greece (presumably for a cheap holiday) to assist Greek fire-fighters tackle the fires caused by the worst heatwave………………..in 30 years!!! So, yet again, propaganda speak acknowledging that it’s happened before but declining to highlight the fact!!! Guvment here looking for more manipulation & control over the population, no wonder I gave up voting years ago, it makes no difference, at least not on a national scale in the UK!!!
It’s so difficult to follow what passes for logic in the mind of a climate alarmist.
It was only a few months ago that we heard about severe drought in Germany due in no uncertain terms to “climate change”. Now without so much as a blush, you’re going on about it being too wet in the UK, due to…wait for it…climate change.
Our resident perpetual bed-wetter, griff, harangued us for weeks about unprecedented flooding in the same until-recently drought-stricken Germany.
You must forgive us when we conclude that your modus operandi is to hype every event that is slightly out of the ordinary, and attribute it to ominous catastrophic climate change.
The article is talking about rainfall in July in Germany where there seems to be no trend either way.
Rainfall in the UK as a whole for July has no trend either.
The data for the four countries seperately show no trend either.
The slight increase in UK rainfall is in Nov/Dec and hardly outside of natural variability.
So, the highest rainfall was back in the 19th Century. And people are worrying, because? …
shrnfr
When I showed my son, an engineer, the temperature graph his comment was essentially the same as yours . . . . . before he had even read the article. This kind of insight of thinking people proves you do not need to have a training and career in one of the main disciplines relating to climate to make intelligent and accurate comments. We must reject the meme “listen to the science” and replace it with “listen to careful observant scientists.”
Agreed Michael! And there are many ordinary folk without degrees in any sciences who, nevertheless, are perfectly capable of keeping a close eye on the weather. Count farmers and gardeners in this lot. And also remember that prior to the mid-20th C, the citizen naturalist was considered the go-to source for knowledge about the natural world.
It doesn’t matter what the actual measurements say, the green shirt media just keeps repeating the same lies, using doomsday predictions as fact, even ignoring the rare honest factoid in IPCC reports.
The whole movement has a dangerous amount of momentum, to the point of cutting down forests to ‘save the environment’ with palm oil plantations and wind farms. The dumb brainwashed idiots don’t realize they’ve been played by Big Green industrial interests.
Facts just seem to count for nothing.
Stephen W.,
Facts, my friend, are waaaacist and imperialistic! Those trying to employ them are obviously trying to act out their White Priviledge; like all the scientists and engineers in China building the numerous coal and nuclear plants needed to establish Sino-supremacy over Earth!
When asked to comment about China’s attempts to eclipse the US as the dominant world power, Zhao Bai Den replied: “Baah, humbug! Baaa, baaa, baaa, baaaaaaa humbug!!”
Flood in some place while drought in another, on balance everything normal. Of course, if you are in the flood or drought it is hard to appreciate this.
“Flood in some place while drought in another”.
Indeed hard to appreciate if you are in either, but drought and flood have always been part of life. The fact that we did not have smartphones to record each and every just-of-normal weather event until the end of the last century, does not mean that these events did not happen. That is something that greenies tend to forget.
Or DENY!
As I have already said, as soon as the greenalists accidentally point out that said weather event, wet or dry, is the worst “since”, whenever, they admit unintentionally that is has happened before!!! They really do think we’re all dumb, but then again, that’s what Agenda 21 was all about, dumbing down the education systems of the world, except for those children of the ruling intellectual elitists, so that they will always appear superior to we plebs!! Reminds me of the old saying, “In the world of the blind, the one-eyed man is king!!!”. I’m hoping Glasgow will not disappoint weather, cold, wet, & miserable!!!
Snort! If the organizers of Cop 26 could managed it, Glasgow would experience balmy temps in the 20s and nothing but sunshine for the entire duration of the meeting. They can’t managed this so instead will all freeze in a typical Glasgow November.
The AGW fearmongers are relentless in their propaganda.
At some point, overwrought scare-mongering should backfire on them. Most people have common sense.
I’m not so sure about the gimme generation
Kemosabe not soon, in meantime Let it rain, rain, rain ….
https://youtu.be/n4aBiL0cOCQ
Close your eyes and listen.
Kemosabe to go in the storm, when there is a ki…r on the road
The summer rains have returned
The backfire happens as the cost of the eco-driven energy changes becomes ever more apparent – ban on ICE, inefficient EVs, reduced flying , inefficient and expensive home heating etc….
But, but, …. climate change….but ….but
Griff, help me out here mate
Are we sure Griff has not morphed into Mark Ingraham?
This is just my experience but I spent 2 to 3 weeks in Germany in July most years between 1999 and 2018. During that time I experienced very little rain. Most years there might have been a few days with some rain. On the other hand I arrived at Passau one year to find the rivers Inn and Danube rising fast and flooding many of the streets. Another year there had been flooding along the Elbe a few months before my arrival and they were still clearing up afterwards. It was interesting to observe the different levels of the River Rhine. Some years it was quite high, some it was much lower. Again, one year there had been flooding in the Rhine Valley in the months before I arrived.I remember one year seeing reports on the television of serious flooding much furtherr north than I was staying. Flooding in Germany in nothing new. Marks on buildings showing how high the water reached are common in Germany. This one is in Passau.
This is exactly the type of “non-scientific” data that needs to be publicized in order to counter the propaganda that creates fear.
I’ve noted that Alarmists usually go strangely quiet when confronted with evidence like this.
Flooding on the scale seen recently is a 1 in 1,000 year event…
Significantly it arrives as predicted by climate science
Nope … wrong. Disagreement with your contribution is universal.
No one is in any doubt why.
You’ve offered no debate and you blew your opportunity to shine. You were offered a chance and flubbed it.
How would we know if any part of the ocean was suffering drought or flooding conditions? I’m guessing we don’t have the right instrumentation in the right places to know this.
If I were to have a point outside of general curiosity, it might be, how much confidence can there be that the 20’ish% of the globe we habitate is representative of the remaining 80% of the globe?
Don’t these two graphs show that an increase in temperature does not cause an increase in rainfall?
It’s a hidden, lied about fact, that the big shiny ball thing in the sky that apparently sits at the centre of the Solar System (more or less), possesses in excess of 99.9% of the mass of said Solar System, & is a giant fusion reactor converting hydrogen into helium every second, has no effect on said Solar System whatsoever, fact, absolutely!!! The fact that the Martian icecap has been melting over a similar observed period goes un-announced!!!
There’s a difference between the average remaining the same and the rainfall arriving in heavier, concentrated bursts to the same amount…
A flood with months worth of rain arriving in 24 hours, intense rainfall of the level seen at Cologne, for example, where previous record beaten by 50%, isn’t ‘rainfall remaining on trend’.
The Californian drought then rivers of rain thing isn’t the average staying on trend either.
Griff, sweetheart, the world has had floods and drought before. Look it up.
Notice how Griffie-poo is trying to move the goalpost once again.
No. How am I moving the goalposts?
and now it has more. The UK for example…
Griff, you must be young. The UK has always had floods. This past year has been absolutely nothing out of the ordinary.
Using the source data (DWD Climate Data Centre), average July temperatures in Germany have increased by +3.4°C in total since 1970.
Data are here. Germany as a whole is the last column in each respective month. I used the ‘Linest’ function in Excel to calculate the linear trend: https://opendata.dwd.de/climate_environment/CDC/regional_averages_DE/monthly/air_temperature_mean/
Apparently Pierre feels compelled to downplay any observed warming, even where it helps his own argument!
Don’t fall for the warmunista’s claims about global warming causing drought … they just as frequently claim that global warming causes too much precipitation, flooding, etc.
Physics says that a warming planet would necessarily have a wetter atmosphere. The vapor pressure of liquid water increases with temperature, and the saturation concentration of water vapor in air also increases with temperature.
Yet the warmunistas shout “drought” .. and at the same time, shout “flooding”, and “extreme this or that” incessantly.
This is the classic unfalsifiable claim – no matter what the data show, they blame it on global warming.
It causes drought in some places, in others the warming atmosphere, which holds more moisture, creates floods and flash floods.
Climate change accentuates the existing local climate.
In the UK it has got 6% wetter in the last 30 years, with that extra coming in an increase in extreme rain events.