Reposted from NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
AUGUST 6, 2021
By Paul Homewood
Last month was notable for a hot spell mid month, interspersed with spells of heavy, thundery rain. No doubt the Met Office/BBC/Guardian nexus will label it a month of extremes, as they always do when it’s a bit warm, cold, wet, dry etc:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/summaries/index
How does this compare with previous years?
July 1941 was a remarkably similar month in many ways, with a hot spell followed by severe thunderstorms, which caused floods and considerable damage. Temperatures peaked at 93F in London, 33.9C, much higher than last month’s high of 32.2C at Heathrow. The highest daily rainfall of 4.25 inches, 108mm was considerably more than the high of 87.9mm last month.
In addition, some exceptionally high totals were recorded for shorter periods, such as 3.9 inches in two hours at Writtle, 3.15 inches in 100 minutes and 0.62 inches in 12 minutes. These widely spread episodes far exceed anything set last month.
Ten years later came another warm July, though without any really hot days. Again though, thunderstorms were widespread and severe:
Fast forward ten years, and July 1961 was a rather cool and cloudy month. Nevertheless temperatures hit 33.9C at several places on the 1st. Strong gales also were widespread at times, with a record gust speed for July recorded at Jersey:
And July 1971 was yet another predominantly sunny month interspersed with heavy thunderstorms. Much of the country suffered with a severe lack of rainfall, with water shortages in Westmoreland described as “severe”.
Despite this, however, other parts were inundated by heavy thunderstorms, with some exceptionally high daily and hourly totals, such as 40mm in 14 minutes at Watchet, described as a “very rare rainfall”. Flood damage was reported at many places, including Great Yarmouth. This latter flood followed 88.2mm of rain in a day at Gorleston, a remarkable similar total to the highest daily total last month of 87.9mm.
True to form, the media have gone totally mental over a few flash floods in London last month, where the highest daily rainfall total was less than 2 inches. As the above archives show, heavy rain like that is the norm in July, not the exception.
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So it was warmer in London in July 1941 than it is in July 2021.
What about the year as a whole?
And that’s accounting for the heat island effect, too.
No money in news, weather unless you can call it extreme , unprecedented etc .
And they even blame cold spells on global warming .
Humans will adjust to climate change as they always have , but adjusting or containing the media hysteria is a new and different difficult challenge .
Facts and diversity of opinion in the free world have now become as subdued and dictated to by unelected elites as it has always been in the communist type countries .
Our media is far more dangerous than the climate changing.
The old saying goes, “News sells, but nothing sells better or faster than bad news!!!”
Certainly oil supply is limited, but how do we know that we’ve reached the limits of that supply, especially as an oil field bigger than anything in the Middle-East, was discovered off the Atlantic coast of Brazil, back in the Obama days, when the great Socialist Lawyer promised unlimited American know-how to help Brazil exploit it??? Still remember watching a BBC alleged factual programme called “Panorama” back in the mid 70s, when they were telling us that by now we’d have to start using less oil, slow down on cars acceleration, & all the other things we’d have to stop doing, because it would start to run out!!! These bozos really hate Human ingenuity & intelligence, simply because it means they won’t be able to manipulate & control us.
Looking on the bright side. If we have enough of these flash floods that result in roads becoming rivers for a few minutes, it might encourage the authorities to do some dredging of our silted up rivers, and some cleaning out of our road side drains.
If you have the good fortune to be able to still drive on an English road, you will notice all of the drain grids are filled with soil and are now growing plants.
Flash flooding is common place, due to inadequate maintenance of our water ways and drainage systems.
It is as simple as that.
Not in terms of temperature.
Unless you subtly switch the subject from “the UK” as the region to which the Met Office report refers, to “London”, a specific location in the UK. Average UK temperature in July 1941 was 15.4C, not even in the top 30 warmest Julys in the UK record (starts 1884). Average UK temperature in July 2021 was +16.6C, the 5th warmest on record. 9 out of the top 10 average warmest July’s in the UK have occurred since 1983; 4 of the top 5 since 2006. The 30 year warming trend in average UK July temperatures is +0.3C per decade; total warming of nearly +1C in 30 years.
Of the other years mentioned in the article, average UK temperature in July 1951 was even colder than in 1941, 14.7C. 1961 was colder again, 13.6C and 1971 was 15.1C. All of these Julys were significantly cooler than July 2021. All but July 1941 were cooler than the UK 1991-2020 average for July, 15.3C. So in terms of UK average temperature, which the Met Office is referring to, the Julys of 1941, 1951, 1961 and 1971 most certainly were not ‘remarkably similar’ to July 2021.
Whilst I agree with the general thrust of Paul’s article, we did actually have rather a lot of rain in our patch of London on 25 July.
A local weather station in Clayhall, Ilford, recorded 105 mm (4 inches in old money) in a 2 hour period. Another one nearby in Chigwell recorded 82 mm in the same period.
This area is mainly suburban housing and on the the Thames terraces. The soil is heavy clay, so heavy rain mostly runs off. Not surprisingly, the surface drainage system struggled to cope.
The rainfall was quite localised. 5 miles away in Romford, there was less than 5 mm of rain on that day.
The only similar event in this area that I can remember was in July/August 1981 (I think) when Loughton was flooded due to intense rain over Epping Forest. A large chunk of this drains out through Loughton Brook which runs in a culvert under Loughton High Road. The culvert couldn’t cope with the load so overflowed, resulting quite a sizeable river coming out of the front of Woolworths.
I suspect that these localised rainstorms have been under-recorded as they would have largely missed all the official weather stations. We should expect to see more recorded with the growth of internet-connected personal weather stations.
Which peak oil would that be?
Or your latest specious peak oil claim?
Every claim of peak oil was a failure, as your prediction already is.
Current known reserves are good for into the next century and likely further.
Here is what seems to be a good source for past weather extremes.
Current Results
weather and science facts
https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/WA/Seattle/extreme-annual-seattle-high-temperature.php
I found out that Seattle hit a high of 100 degrees in 1941 way back when it was much smaller with far, far fewer humans, buildings and concrete which the Alarmists never seem to take into account when reporting on high temperatures today.
“PG&E equipment caused major fires in 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020. Now the company may be at fault for the Dixie Fire, the most severe blaze to ravage drought-plagued California so far this year third-largest wildfire in state history.”
https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Cause-of-Dixie-Fire-raises-a-familiar-question-16371018.php
How does Global warming cause companies to cut corners and not do mitigation measures like separators, replace bad insulators, trim trees/vegetation, transmission wires/tower capacity upgrades, clear access roads, ready water…
These fires would have happened without AGW/CC, what max percentage could current “warming” increase the intensity? I think +2C would have <3% increase in the fire models.
Here’s one fire model/calculator. If the temperature only changes, then I often see about 8% increase of intensity in this calculator.
https://aurora.landgate.wa.gov.au/fbc/#!/mmk5-forest
If the fuel burns over 800C, does +2C really make that much difference? It must be that more energy per degree C is required to vaporise water/oils etc but once these are gases it takes less energy to change the temperature of these gases. The physics/chemistry of fire and fighting ability & damage are all non-linear & complicated to accurately quantify.