Update 3 on Northwest US Heat Wave Predictions

Reposted from the Cliff Mass Weather Blog

June 26, 2021

A One-Hundred Year Heat Wave Event Comes Into Focus

 As we get closer to the big heat event, powerful new forecasting tools are becoming available.  Tools that provide a higher resolution and more nuanced view of the extreme heatwave event that is about to happen.

One such tool is ultra-high resolution numerical weather prediction models.  My group at the University of Washington runs the highest-resolution operational weather prediction system in the region, with a grid spacing of 1.3 km.  High enough resolution to get many of the local water bodies approximately correct, as well as the impacts of our regional terrain features.

Let me show you the surface air temperatures predicted today through Monday…all shown at 5 PM. 

Today, Portland and the lower Columbia Basin surges above 100F and Seattle rises into the upper 90s. The kind of conditions we typically experience once or twice each summer.


Sunday afternoon is a much warmer story.  Portland is above 104-108 and the central Puget Sound away from the water is above 100F.


What about humidity?  Will the air be so moist that evaporation on your skin won’t be effective?  The answer is no.   
Here is the predicted relative humidity at the same time (5 PM Sunday):  most of the region will have relative humidity below 30%.  Sweating or wetting your skin will provide substantial cooling.  Very good.


And then there is Monday, a day that will be the warmest in the past century for portions of western Washington.
Just madness. If you are right on Puget Sound temperatures will be tolerable (80s), but go inland a few miles and temperatures will zoom above 104F.  Go inland a bit more,  temperatures will be above 110F.  I have provided a zoomed-in view for better viewing below.   I never expected to see such temperatures in my lifetime.
Eastside communities like Bellevue, Redmond, and Woodinville will be hit much harder than Seattle, Tacoma, and Everett.

Another powerful tool is high-resolution ensembles of many forecasts, which allow us to see the uncertainty in the forecasts.   

Here is the University of Washington high-resolution ensemble prediction for the temperature at Seattle Tacoma Airport, with the black line indicating the mean of all the forecasts (a good forecast in general).  Today (00/27) has the ensembles on the same page (the upper 90s).  More variations on Sunday, but nearly all above 100F (man about 104-105).  And on Monday the mean is around 110F, with a range of 100-115.   Yikes.


Now I have been somewhat fixated on high temperatures, but nighttime lows are also important because they greatly influence the quality of our sleep and ability to cool down our homes and apartments. 
The ensemble predictions above indicate a substantial increase in daily minimum temperatures, with temperatures on SundayNight/Monday morning only dropping to around 75F.
Wow…that is more than our typical highs this time of year (~72F).  It will be very hard to cool off before the super warm day on Monday.  We will be breaking major low-temperature records–the highest low temperature in history–at many stations.
The good news in all this?  Tuesday will be considerably cooler, but still way above normal.  More on that in my next blog.
When this is all over, I plan to do a detailed examination of this event in the context of global warming.  

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John
June 26, 2021 10:13 pm

I had 100 registered by my car thermo today in Bellevue. Can’t imagine what 110 will feel like Monday.

Crispin Pemberton-Pigott
Reply to  John
June 26, 2021 10:20 pm

It will be so dry you will hardly notice the difference. It is like 120 in Las Vegas. Above body temperature is so hot you have to seek shelter and stay hydrated. Don’t hydrate with fizzy drinks except soda water. Add salt and sugar to a litre bottle of water, 1/2 cap salt and 8 caps sugar. There are other recipes with similar ratios.

Steve Z.
Reply to  Crispin Pemberton-Pigott
June 27, 2021 3:38 am

Re: The air will be so dry…

Unfortunately, not with this system. Humidity is 60% as I write this at 3:30 AM, and was above 30% when we hit 100 F yesterday.

Our “cool off” will be even more brutal on Tuesday. We will get a marine air flow that will bring in cool, but very humid, ocean air. Temps will be above 90 with humidity like south Florida.

Sara
Reply to  Steve Z.
June 27, 2021 5:57 am

Does your heat wave explain why we’re having nice, cool (and finally rainy!) weather here in the Midwest? No tornadoes so far, at least none reported by local news/weather people.

Bryan A
Reply to  Sara
June 27, 2021 8:37 am

And globally no Horrorcanes

Well I’ll be dipped…
We might actually have one off the top of Baja…down near Puerto Vallarta

Last edited 1 month ago by Bryan A
Reply to  Crispin Pemberton-Pigott
June 27, 2021 6:52 am

How about a tiny little shot of apple cider vinegar? Will that help?

Reply to  John
June 27, 2021 12:16 am

115-120°F is normal in the Mojave. Also Central Spain. Shade and hydrate is OK
35°C (95°F) with full humidity is far worse, no chnace to sweat really. Find Aircon.

AntonyIndia
Reply to  Leo Smith
June 27, 2021 5:12 am

Nothing special in the Indian subcontinent, either of these highs with low or high humidity during summers.

Rich Davis
Reply to  AntonyIndia
June 27, 2021 7:39 am

Yeah but Antony, that’s India with all its advanced infrastructure. We’re talking about a highly populated area in backward northwestern USA.

(For once I will use the /sarc tag)

Richard Patton
Reply to  Leo Smith
June 27, 2021 8:19 am

True, but when their temperatures drop to the upper 50s (f) people start dying of hypothermia. More people die of hypothermia in the tropics than in the mid and upper latitudes. It all has to do with what you are used to. I have live in the tropics and I have lived in the Nevada desert. Humans are incredibly adaptable.

Sara
Reply to  Richard Patton
June 27, 2021 11:32 am

How can anyone die of hypothermia when the air temperature is upper 50sF???

That’s just a pleasant, cool evening in the summer and the cool air is very, very welcome.

Now, if the night-time temps drop below that, and the dew point (where water vapor falls out of the air – been there, got soaked), that’s a different story, and some warm blankets might be in order. I’ve camped out in that kind of weather, but never died of hypothermia (obviously).

I’d also like to add that in the desert, where there is such low humidity that daytime temps may reach over 100F but will drop up as much as 75F degrees overnight. The average Sahara Desert temperature during the night is 25 degrees Fahrenheit or -4 degrees Celsius. Better bring some blankets. It’s the reason desert nomads have tents and wear all those layers of clothing.

I’d appreciate an explanation of that statement, RP. Just askin’. I like to be informed.

ironargonaut
Reply to  Sara
June 27, 2021 12:20 pm

You forgot this thing called rain, wet, no shelter,no heat source and temp 40F below normal body temp and you can suffer hypothermia. Always be prepared it’s awkward when you have to eat your friends.

Last edited 1 month ago by ironargonaut
Reply to  Sara
June 27, 2021 3:24 pm

“I’d also like to add that in the desert, where there is such low humidity that daytime temps may reach over 100F but will drop up as much as 75F degrees overnight. The average Sahara Desert temperature during the night is 25 degrees Fahrenheit or -4 degrees Celsius.”

References, please. If it doesn’t happen in the Mohave Desert, it’s not going to happen in the Sahara Desert either. None of the US Forces over in the Arabian Desert experienced things like that during the summer & I didn’t experience anything like that in the Persian Gulf in the summer of ’87.

Sara
Reply to  JKrob
June 27, 2021 4:26 pm

Yes, I agree: not all deserts are alike. My reference was the wiki. Some deserts like the Saudi peninsula have extremely high humidity and others like the Sahara have little to none. It does matter, you are very right about that.

Richard Patton
Reply to  JKrob
June 27, 2021 11:09 pm

I found several contradictory articles about how hot (and cold) the Saraha is. One of them claims nighttime temperatures usually fall to 25F others say 45F. Daytime temps according to one article are 100-108F (which I don’t believe) while another says 104-122F. (40-50C is what the article states-which is quite a range)

Richard Patton
Reply to  Sara
June 27, 2021 10:46 pm

Apparently, you haven’t lived in hot, tropical climates as I have. I lived on Guam for a while and when the temperature dropped into the upper 70’s (F) all of us were putting on sweaters because we were so cold. I also spent several years in Fallon, Nevada where summer temperatures were 100-104 every day, (I know because I was a forecaster there) and after my first summer there those temperatures were no big deal (They were a big deal the first summer because I had just come from Portland)

BTW PDX’s new all-time record (broke yesterday’s all-time record of 108F) is 112F and it looks like it will be broken again tomorrow. 113-116F is the range that they are going for.

Reply to  Sara
June 28, 2021 5:42 am

My bigger point is that I don’t think the Boundary Layer can loose more than about 30F with radiational cooling alone (except if there is snow on the ground. Snow is an EXCELLENT radiational cooler). I collected some NWS forecasts from the US desert SW showing that with days over 100F, nigh-time temps only drop into the 70’s and this is also how it is currently in the Pacific NW with their dry heat wave. No way you can have +100F days & below freezing nights…ANYWHERE.

NWS Forecast for: 13 Miles S Furnace Creek CA
Issued by: National Weather Service Las Vegas, NV
Last Update: 2:38 am PDT Jun 16, 2015

Excessive Heat Watch
This Afternoon: Sunny and hot, with a high near 122. South wind around 8 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 93. South southwest wind 8 to 13 mph becoming light and variable after midnight.
Wednesday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 124. Light southwest wind.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 94. South wind 3 to 7 mph.
Thursday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 125. Light and variable wind.
Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 94.
Friday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 127.
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 96.
Saturday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 128.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 97.
Sunday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 128.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear with a low around 97.
Monday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 127.

Just west of Barstow, ca.
NWS Forecast for: 10 Miles NNW Helendale CA
Issued by: National Weather Service Las Vegas, NV
Last Update: 2:38 am PDT Jun 16, 2015

Excessive Heat Watch
This Afternoon: Sunny, with a high near 102. West southwest wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 68. Southwest wind 10 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 102. West southwest wind 8 to 13 mph increasing to 16 to 21 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 29 mph.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 69. Southwest wind 14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 103. West southwest wind 11 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 69.
Friday: Sunny, with a high near 103.
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 70.
Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 104.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 69.
Sunday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 105.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 71.
Monday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 105.

Near Lake Havasu, Az.
NWS Forecast for: 20 Miles NNE Lake Havasu City AZ
Issued by: National Weather Service Las Vegas, NV
Last Update: 2:38 am MST Jun 16, 2015

Excessive Heat Watch
This Afternoon: Sunny and hot, with a high near 110. South southwest wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 76. South southwest wind 5 to 13 mph becoming east southeast after midnight.
Wednesday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 111. Southeast wind 5 to 15 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.
Wednesday Night: Clear, with a low around 77. South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light south in the evening.
Thursday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 113. Light and variable wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 79.
Friday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 115.
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 79.
Saturday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 116.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 81.
Sunday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 117.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 81.

Between Phoenix & Tuscon, Az.
NWS Forecast for: 9 Miles SE Florence AZ
Issued by: National Weather Service Tucson, AZ
Last Update: 2:17 am MST Jun 16, 2015

This Afternoon: Sunny and hot, with a high near 106. West northwest wind around 9 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 77. Northwest wind 5 to 9 mph becoming east southeast after midnight.
Wednesday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 108. South southeast wind 5 to 14 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 78. Northwest wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light and variable.
Thursday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 108. South southeast wind 6 to 14 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon.
Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 77.
Friday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 109.
Friday Night: Clear, with a low around 76.
Saturday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 110.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 77.
Sunday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 109.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 77.
Monday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 108.
Monday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 116.

Northwest of Las Vegas, Nv.
NWS Forecast for: 14 Miles NW Tonopah NV
Issued by: National Weather Service Elko, NV
Last Update: 12:45 am PDT Jun 16, 2015

This Afternoon: Sunny, with a high near 94. West wind around 6 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 57. North wind 6 to 10 mph.
Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 94. Light and variable wind becoming west southwest around 6 mph in the morning.
Wednesday Night: Clear, with a low around 57. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 95. Calm wind becoming south southwest 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday Night: Clear, with a low around 59.
Friday: Sunny, with a high near 94.
Friday Night: Clear, with a low around 59.
Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 95.
Saturday Night: Clear, with a low around 60.
Sunday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 96.
Sunday Night: Clear, with a low around 60.
Monday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 96.

Greg
Reply to  John
June 27, 2021 12:17 am

I’ve done outdoor constuction work in that kind of temperature ( 44-45C ) in south of France. You need to keep will hydrated and keep your head cool but you can do physical work if you’re fit. If you’re over 80 , best stay indoors :0

Tombstone Gabby
Reply to  Greg
June 27, 2021 4:23 pm

G;Day Greg,

“…If you’re over 80 , best stay indoors.” Good advice.

I’m still three months short of 80, but I’m staying indoors anyway.

Current location: Gila Bend, AZ, staying an RV campground. According to my wife’s phone it’s 111°F outside. (From the “Weather Channel”.) With A/C we’re holding 88°F inside.

Kevin A
Reply to  Tombstone Gabby
June 28, 2021 12:38 pm

Pick up some 1″ FOAMULAR insulation then cut to fit (tight) the windows, add aluminum foil to reflect the sun and purchase some RV Vent Insulator Pillows for all the vents. My A/C runs on low fan and keeps the RV at 78F, 109F outside right now. Make sure your A/C voltage doesn’t drop with you turn the A/C on!

Tombstone Gabby
Reply to  Kevin A
June 28, 2021 7:52 pm

G’Day Kevin,

Many thanks for the tips. In as much as this is the first time in over 35 years that we’ve travelled in summer, we’ll probably sweat it out. Moved to an RV park at Picacho Peak this morning. Rest up tomorrow then it’s about 140 miles to home on Wednesday.

What was different this time? The virus. We have a desert cabin outside 29 Palms, CA. Home (since 2009) is in south-east Arizona. Looked at possible ‘exposure’ for the two locations. We stayed in California.

Current ‘normal’ year. From home (4,200 ft) to Quartzsite (900 ft) in early January. Four to six weeks there, then on to CA (2100 ft). Head home in early April, no high temperatures to contend with.

In the eighty’s, ninety’s, and noughtie’s we were “sun birds”, north in the summer, CA Sierra Nevada’s (Glass Creek,7,200 ft), Oregon Cascades (Diamond Lake, 5,200 ft), or central/northern Nevada, and south for the winters. It helped that for ten of those years we were volunteer USFS campground hosts – all summer, free of charge. Also – I was working for a well known income tax preparation company – summers off.

Cheers.

McComberBoy
Reply to  John
June 27, 2021 4:58 am

In your car, with the AC on, it will feel exactly the same. Get a grip folks.

LdB
Reply to  John
June 27, 2021 5:38 am

Western Australia is having the coldest winter in decades …. send heat please.

Sara
Reply to  John
June 27, 2021 5:55 am

1953 Central Illinois, we get a heat wave. The high was 113F, a record for that area and that particular time (July). It was recorded. That was followed by violent thunderstorms that split in half one of the trees in the front yard, because wind bursts have about the same effect as yanking a rope back and forth. Might have been a tornado somewhere, too, but I don’t recall it. After that, the summer weather cooled off to “normal” (about 80 to 85F, typical for farmland, and the poor old split from the tree was cut up for firewood and hauled away.

Then there was the 1995 disastrous heat wave that struck Chicago: The 1995 Chicago heat wave led to 739 heat-related deaths in Chicago over a period of five days. Most of the victims of the heat wave were elderly poor residents of the city, who could not afford air conditioning and did not open windows or sleep outside for fear of crime. – wiki

Heat waves happen, but there’s usually a causative factor, just as there is with tornadoes and violent thunderstorms. In this case, I’d stock the freezer with bags of ice, make up a couple of gallons of iced tea, and enjoy the summer weather. Fall and winter are not very far off.

I’m still puzzled AS TO why anyone thinks a warm planet, with varying warm temps from one place to another, is a threat of some kind.

John Hultquist
Reply to  Sara
June 27, 2021 7:15 am

 Not the same John; but you prompted me to look for more info:

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/HeatWaves.pdf

This is a list of hot days in Central Park ( ?? NYC).
Note that the longest, 12 days, was in 1953.
The last line in the table is also for ’53; next up is for 1955.

I was not in Central Park. Home was farther west – west slope of the Allegheny Mountains in PA.
The 1953 summer was the warmest I’ve experienced. Not counting one June day in Tucson.

In Ohio, the hot summer was 1934.

John Tillman
Reply to  John
June 27, 2021 2:15 pm

Seattle hit 103 F in 2009. Cliff never expected to see the forecast 109 F for tomorrow, but we’ll have to wait to see whether actually happens.

Bill Powers
Reply to  John
June 28, 2021 10:34 am

I bet you can’t wait to live through the next one after the Renewable Energy grid fails and you have to experience that heat without A/C.

Ask Texans how enjoyable their winter experience when their renewables predictably failed them. Of course back then everyone who died from exposure was chalked up to COVID19. Right now my bet is every cause of death in the northwest has shifted from COVID to heat stroke.

Once they have you on an unreliable renewable grid sans A/C, you won’t make national, let alone global, news with people dropping dead in the street from the heat.

Hari Seldon
June 26, 2021 10:38 pm

It would be interesting also to see the measured values and to compare them to the calculated (modelled) values. A practical experience from our holidays in Egypt: At dry conditions even 35-40 centigrades Celsius was easily bearable after 15-20 centigrades Celsius (with more humidity) in Germany.

Greg
Reply to  Hari Seldon
June 27, 2021 12:24 am

Yes, weather forecasts rarely seem to get checked after the event. As soon as the hour is past they suddenly become irretrievable and non verifiable.

NWS currently predicting 45C/113F for Portland peaking around 6pm today.

https://www.google.com/search?q=current+temperature+portland

Let’s pop back later today to see how that shapes up. ( Have a screenshot, so they can’t memory hole this. )

Rich Davis
Reply to  Greg
June 27, 2021 5:15 am

I took screenshots for Portland, Oregon hourly on my phone yesterday afternoon/evening to document the comparison between prediction and reported current* temperatures.

As I anticipated, the 108F/42C predicted for Saturday as of Thursday night, and the 106F/41C predicted on Saturday morning ended up topping out at 102F/39C. Basically, the typical 5F exaggeration factor that I have observed many times in the past with The Weather Channel (TWC) feed during hyped heat waves.

Why that feed? It is seen by the vast majority of people in the US if they have an iPhone using the built-in Weather app.

Last night at the peak, TWC were predicting a high of 115F/46C for today. As of this morning, the prediction is down to 111F/44C. Just going by yesterday’s dry run, it looks like 106-108F/41-42C is what they really expect. We’ll see. That’s not a prediction. It’s a projection 🙂

This is hot, basically certain to produce an all-time record for Portland. I’m not trying to say otherwise. My only point is the exaggeration and dishonest level of hype.

The reasons why it doesn’t prove CAGW were recited yesterday by Cliff Mass himself, despite today’s litany of “never expected to see in my lifetime”, “yikes”, “wow”, and “in the context of global warming” allusions.

—-
* reported current temperatures in TWC feed are still modeled temperatures AFAIK, but supposedly modeled only to interpolate actual weather station readings to a GPS location. For all I know, these are also exaggerated, but it’s unlikely since they’d have to explain the mismatch with weather station readings.

Rick
Reply to  Rich Davis
June 27, 2021 9:29 am

Currently 26C here in central Alberta with predictions of a high of 32 today. Typically, if the high is reached it is only for an hour or so at about 4 in the afternoon. In my opinion, it is pretty enjoyable weather but I should be in the shade with a cold beer by late afternoon. Typically Environment Canada and the media are all warning us about the heat which is easily handled by most with a little common sense. I did concede to install my window air conditioner for the first time in several years, just so I don’t have to sleep outside. The house would likely get a little warm without it.

Tombstone Gabby
Reply to  Rich Davis
June 27, 2021 4:49 pm

G’Day Rich,

For all I know, these are also exaggerated, but it’s unlikely since they’d have to explain the mismatch with weather station readings.

Just checked The National Weather Service station at Gila Bend Air Force Auxiliary Field, 17 miles west of town. Their 1558 reading was 111°F which matched the figure reported (by phone) by the Weather channel.

But – I’ve been following the NWS “SELF” station at the Marine Corps Air Ground Combat Center 29 Palms for the past several months – the figure reported the following day by the WC was usually one degree higher, sometimes two degrees. NWS figures go to NOAA and who knows what happens then.

Rich Davis
Reply to  Rich Davis
June 27, 2021 5:27 pm

So far today it has topped out at 108F/42C vs yesterday evening’s prediction of 115F/46C.

Until a few minutes ago they were still holding out for it to hit 109F/43C (current local time in Portland is about 5:22pm). Now it says 108F. So I guess today’s exaggeration was 7F.

Of course the forecast for tomorrow is still 115F/46C. Total confidence.

I’d just like to remind you all that Cliff Mass said in the first posting on this topic that models predicted 120F/49C for today. All weekend the end of the world stories have blared out the exaggerated temperatures as if they had already occurred. Looks like the exaggeration since the start of this story was a whopping 12F/7C!

I am sure that we can anticipate that any and every site that hits a high temperature record this NH summer is going to be similarly forecast in advance with exaggerated temperatures.

Call them out on it!

Joel Snider
Reply to  Rich Davis
June 27, 2021 6:49 pm

Posted this below – from Hillsboro Oregon:

‘I was out working in this sh*t all day – driving a truck over the mountain. Up in the hills it was around 99-102 – when I got back into town just now, at 4:40 it’s 108.
It DID get to 113 inside my car sitting in the parking lot all day.’

Rich Davis
Reply to  Joel Snider
June 28, 2021 3:51 am

Yeah, so my “projection” was pretty accurate. Even I was surprised.

The models run hot, and not just the climate models, the weather models as well.

I’ve commented on this during the winter a couple of years back when New England had an extended cold snap with sub-zero F temperatures for several days. There was one day when the high temperature recorded was below the low temperature predicted.

How can it be denied that there’s a propaganda effort under way? Does anyone seriously think that if predictions were routinely 2-4F too cool, that no adjustment would be made? It is as if there has been a conscious decision to exaggerate heat as much as they can get away with.

That and the publicizing a week in advance for any remote site that happens to hit a record. No doubt, if they don’t have another heat wave to hype, they’ll fill time talking about how this heat will soon be the new normal.

Pisses me off really.

Joel Snider
Reply to  Rich Davis
June 28, 2021 7:25 pm

Registered a little hotter today on my truck thermometer – 108 average with one spot on a naked hillside with no trees on a dirt and gravel road where it went up to 115.

Pamela Matlack-Klein
Reply to  Hari Seldon
June 27, 2021 1:29 am

We are currently having 15-22C in Portugal and it certainly does not feel hot, chilly more like.

Greg
Reply to  Pamela Matlack-Klein
June 27, 2021 1:52 am

Sunday 11am. 24C in south of France, refreshingly cool for this time of year after one of the coolest springtimes I can recall in 30y down here.

Pamela Matlack-Klein
Reply to  Greg
June 27, 2021 1:58 am

Indeed! This has been a cool spring for us along the coast, lots of fog, some rain. It is much warmer to the east but that is generally how it works. Marvelous weather for gardening.

J N
Reply to  Pamela Matlack-Klein
June 27, 2021 4:51 am

We should be having more than 40 C in Alentejo by this time of the year! Unusual summer so far.

rah
Reply to  Hari Seldon
June 27, 2021 9:22 am

How far out on the models? A week, two weeks, or more? Nearly every day here I see that the model bull crap from the weatherchannel, weatherbug, etc forecast temps that turn out to be 1-2 degrees higher than what is actually measured. This is so common I actually just subtract 2 deg F from their forecasted high.

Josh
June 26, 2021 10:49 pm

Will temps be skewed by weather station data located in hot urban locations (on asphalt, next to concrete buildings, by AC units, etc.) a la surfacestations.org? Will not the “hottest temps EVER” be affected by the concrete jungle? I was in Kirkland today and my truck thermometer measured 104° F in full sun in a big asphalt parking lot. By the time I got to Stevens Pass 1.5 hours later it was 80° (at 4000′). I am dubious of the accuracy of temps taken in urban areas due to poor station locations, and think that the temps will be higher due to their poor sighting and UHI. I doubt any media will take UHI or locations of surface stations into account. Fortunately I am now at our lake cabin in the mountains, and a dive into the lake provides a rapid cooling.

Last edited 1 month ago by Josh
gringojay
Reply to  Josh
June 26, 2021 11:06 pm

Don’t test your luck out in Furnace Creek (Death Valley) going to check it’s thermometer site location. It hit 53* Celsius (127.7*F) recently; beating out the highest temperature recoded anywhere.

Aaron Edwards
Reply to  gringojay
June 27, 2021 3:22 am

Grigojay:134°F
The world record highest air temperature of 134°F (57°C) was recorded at Furnace Creek on July 10, 1913.Oct 20, 2020

Mike Dubrasich
Reply to  Josh
June 26, 2021 11:46 pm

Ditto that. The hysterical prediction for today was 104, but it never got higher than 94 at our place near Sweet Home OR. No tarmac here, thermometer on the deck in the shade.

Yes, it was warm, but I worked in the garden all day, with a couple of breaks. Took a dip in the kiddie pool. The garden is magnificent, best ever. The corn is already 5 ft tall. The folks around here hope for “knee high by the 4th of July”, but my early variety is already showing tassels. Watermelons and cantaloupes are flowering with tiny ‘lopes forming. Blueberries are huge and ripening. Harvesting lettuce, spinach, beets, broccoli. yellow squash, snap peas. Warm weather and plenty of water have made this Spring a gardener’s dream.

The hysterics are predicting 114 for tomorrow. I sincerely doubt it. If it gets to 100 I’ll be surprised. In any case, stuff is growing gangbusters. Warmth and water, the keys to green success.

Duker
Reply to  Mike Dubrasich
June 27, 2021 12:10 am

Im thinking along those lines too, they will hunt for one location with a record and that will be as though everyone has that , or absent that they will take computer predictions and ensemble means as as actual data.

Reply to  Mike Dubrasich
June 27, 2021 5:38 am

“Warmth and water, the keys to green success.”

Along with a yummy helping of carbon dioxide plant food.

Teddy Lee
Reply to  Mike Dubrasich
June 27, 2021 8:47 am

Mike D,sounds marvellous.Enjoy the produce of your effort.
Here in Cambridge UK, spring was a capricious,chillingly cold one. Flowering,held back by several weeks. Since the very end of May the plants are in hyperdrive mode.
Everything in my small courtyard garden is blooming. Colours are brighter, and perfumes exquisite. Summer, so far,is normal,(temperate)

Rick
Reply to  Mike Dubrasich
June 27, 2021 9:45 am

Warmth and water, the keys to green success.” Truer words were never spoke. It is cold and dry that are the enemies of gardeners and agriculture. Few useful plants will survive a hard frost, but a hot spell is only helpful with enough water.

ironargonaut
Reply to  Mike Dubrasich
June 27, 2021 12:31 pm

Be surprised my car said 108 yesterday already 100 at 1230PM house thermometer in shade . And I am in woods not city

Mike Dubrasich
Reply to  Mike Dubrasich
June 27, 2021 6:07 pm

Breaking News: My predictions are vastly superior to Gooberment
Experts. The temp here topped out today at 99°F just as I prognosticated. The National Weather Service, a division of NOAA, predicted 114°F (for my zip code), so they were off by 15 degrees.

Yesterday they missed by 10 degrees. That’s two pitches over the catcher’s head, over the backstop, and into the second level bleachers.

I check the NWS almost every day all year. Usually they are off by no more than one or two degrees, and in the winter miss low. So it’s not like we live in a cold hole, although it’s a cool place figuratively.

Missing the mark by 10 to 15 degrees is pathetic. I don’t know why they threw it into the stands. Maybe they have a political agenda, or maybe the competent people went on vacation, or maybe the excitement of a Heat Wave made them all crazy. You tell me.

Stuart Lynne
June 26, 2021 11:02 pm

Assuming this spills into California there could be some rolling blackouts.

Highly doubt much spare power available from Northern states or BC.

I’m in the Vancouver suburbs, heard on the news that BC Hydro was expecting record power usage today, and should set new records Sunday and Monday.

The (very) good news is it is a dry heat, so sweating and fans keep you cool.

nickc
Reply to  Stuart Lynne
June 27, 2021 12:24 am

The record power usage is media hype and typical misinformation. The record they are chattering about is for this time of year. Usage is highest in winter.

Shanghai Dan
Reply to  Stuart Lynne
June 27, 2021 7:49 am

Down here in Ventura, we’ve still not broken 80 deg, when normally we’ve have a dozen 80-85 degree days by now (rarely much above 85, however). We’re still in the mid-upper 50s at night, which is more like March weather. It’s been dry and cold so far this year!

Chris*
June 26, 2021 11:37 pm

These are normal summertime temperatures for us. As kids we played under the sprinklers during the very hot afternoons. Before air conditioning, we slept on the back lawn at night and counted stars.
My advise; get up early pre dawn – first exercise, then do all the jobs that need to be done outdoors before the heat starts to build. Keep hydrated, stay off alcohol and soft drinks.Use electrolyte drinks with discretion, too much can dehydrate you . Wear a hat and stay in the shade. Sunscreen can interfere with sweating – personal preferences are required here.

Greg
Reply to  Chris*
June 27, 2021 1:56 am

Ever since seeing Jocko Willis on JRE, I get up at 4am every day run 10 miles and to do 3h of weights before breakfast. Never felt better 😉 LOL.

Last edited 1 month ago by Greg
Bob Hoye
June 26, 2021 11:56 pm

Cliff–good reports.
I live in Vancouver BC, as far west as one can get. Only 1,000 feet from the ocean.
The outside temp reading on my car is accurate when moving and at 2 PM it was showing 87.
And a modest Westerly was blowing.
Which is the air temp before it gets elevated in moving through the city and further inland up the Fraser Valley.
Checked the weather station at the airport and it was also showing 87.
It’s hot.

Greg
June 27, 2021 12:02 am

Hi Cliff, thanks for all the detail. What would be interesting is a map of ACTUAL temperatures for the previous day to see how well the models did.

I’m not sure I can see this “downslope warming” you were describing. Temps either side of the Cascades look pretty much the same. Air cools as it rises , warms as it comes back down and ends up the same. Maybe I’m missing what you were suggesting would happen.

Intelligent Dasein
Reply to  Greg
June 27, 2021 1:50 am

Yes, you’re missing something. It is the difference between the moist adiabatic lapse rate and the dry adiabatic lapse rate.

Kevin kilty
Reply to  Intelligent Dasein
June 27, 2021 7:27 am

Not in this case I think. There isn’t any precipitation over the Cascades. Issue is warm air from the higher ground to the southeast being pushed to the northwest and downslope. That it rises over the Cascades is immaterial as long as there is no drying of the air from precipitation. It is the elevation change from where this hot air originated to where it arrives in the coastal areas of Washington and Oregon.

Anthony Banton
Reply to  Intelligent Dasein
June 27, 2021 3:50 pm

And you’re missing something …. Isentropic draw-down.

No need for cloud/precipitation (ie it’s not a case of air rising at the SALR and descending at the DALR) – rather air at and above mountain top with a higher potential temperature (when drawn down to the surface) than lower level air that has been blocked.

https://stratusdeck.co.uk/föhn-winds

NB: the air on the upwind side may not be totally blocked but Lee affects will drawn down air aloft and turbulently mix with it.

Keitho
Editor
Reply to  Greg
June 27, 2021 2:41 am

Here in Cape Town we have a phenomenon called a Berg Wind. The air over the Karoo gets warmed on sunny days and if a NE wind blows that air comes down off the Karoo and drops about 3000′ getting very hot and it then blows over the City. Quite surprising on what started out as a cold, bright, winter day.

Kevin kilty
Reply to  Keitho
June 27, 2021 7:33 am

I think this is exactly analogous. Dropping 3000′ warms air about 18F on a dry adiabat. If there is no time for the air to be modified by radiation or interaction with the surface, the forecast would be air temp in the Karoo + 18F in Cape Town.

Mike Maguire
June 27, 2021 12:16 am

Thanks for keeping us posted Cliff!

Portland’s 108 on Saturday set an all time high temperature for any month.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=KPDX&num=72&raw=0

Screenshot 2021-06-27 at 02-16-17 Portland, Portland International Airport.png
Mike Maguire
Reply to  Mike Maguire
June 27, 2021 12:18 am

Portland’s records.

Screenshot 2021-06-26 at 18-29-38 Temperatures - pg5 pdf.png
Mike Maguire
Reply to  Mike Maguire
June 27, 2021 12:19 am

This is the link to that graphic:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/pdxclimate/pg5.pdf

Sweet Old Bob
Reply to  Mike Maguire
June 27, 2021 7:39 am

1940 to 2019 ….
😉

Bryan A
Reply to  Sweet Old Bob
June 27, 2021 8:50 am

Gotta disappear that inconvenient 1930s

Greg
Reply to  Mike Maguire
June 27, 2021 12:38 am

Thanks Mike. previous max 107F in 1965 and 1981, downtown max 107F in 1942.

Let’s see whether we get to see the 113F NWS are predicting later today… Tommorow already looks to peak a bit lower and drops off earlier in the day. The OMFG event for Monday already seems to be evaporating.

Last edited 1 month ago by Greg
Ariadaeus
June 27, 2021 12:49 am

What a load of hysterical garbage. Does the reduced air density mean the bullets that hit you in downtown Portland cause more trauma because of their higher kinetic energy?

Last edited 1 month ago by Ariadaeus
ironargonaut
Reply to  Ariadaeus
June 27, 2021 2:33 pm

Increased density not lower. But, to your larger point, the energy in the air is dependant on multiple factors temperature being only one. This is just an interesting anomaly. Doesn’t mean sky is falling and I don’t see where author implied it was.

Peter Morris
Reply to  ironargonaut
June 27, 2021 4:01 pm

Why would warmer air be denser?

ren
June 27, 2021 2:20 am

The circulation slowdown is associated with a decrease in solar wind speed.comment image

June 27, 2021 2:55 am

When this event passes I intend to do a short guest post on WA and OR temps recorded at USCRN’s 3 WA sites and the OR sites ( not sure of how many ).

I have to wonder re the motives of the author who fails to acknowledge this tool.

ozspeaksup
June 27, 2021 3:38 am

as long as you keep morons OUT of parks n not using powertools etc in grassy yards etc its just a decent summer hot spell
why the hysterics?

Bruce Cobb
June 27, 2021 3:51 am

Remember when weather was just weather? Now it’s “life-threatening” and “extreme”. The implication being of course, that things are worse now, and will only get worser. Because “Climate Change”, and it’s man’s fault (of course). Stupidity, and perhaps poverty are the two biggest factors in heat-related deaths, similarly to cold-related deaths. Thanks to fossil fuels, we are overall, much better off today, and that wealth is what allows us to stay cool via air conditioners. But the Climate Caterwaulers wailing the loudest about heat-related deaths (they don’t say boo about cold- related ones) want to destroy that wealth. Destroying wealth is the perfect vehicle for creating way more heat-related (and certainly cold-related) deaths.
Ahhh…..I just love irony with my morning coffee.

rah
June 27, 2021 3:56 am

And meanwhile in the other 80% of the nation the temps are going to be below averages and very wet for many of us. Last night people were stranded in O’Hara in Chicago because of connecting flights being grounded due to storms. Not a rental car, bus to be found. Thankfully, my area is south of the worst of it for now.

June 27, 2021 5:11 am

This is probably a low wind event, so no wind power when need is greatest. A real grid tester. Watch for blackouts.

John Hultquist
Reply to  David Wojick
June 27, 2021 9:47 am

Here is a chart from the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA); 7 day, 5 minute updates.
 https://transmission.bpa.gov/Business/Operations/Wind/baltwg.aspx

Mostly water power, one nuclear (Columbia Generating Station), many small thermal, and some wind — some days.

Bob boder
June 27, 2021 6:26 am

Everyone’s going to die in Portland because it’s going to be hot, meanwhile in Philly it’s going to be 95 on Monday, 96 on Tuesday and 95 on Wed all with 60 to 70% humidity, ah just another summer heat wave. Thank god we are not in southern Texas.

Kevin kilty
Reply to  Bob boder
June 27, 2021 7:36 am

In 2002 I attended a conference at U Penn. I walked from a shuttle station coming from the airport across the U Penn campus. It was probably about 90F with 80+% humidity. By the time I arrived at my dorm I was so sweaty people thought I was having a coronary episode. Humidity is really a key to comfort.

Editor
Reply to  Kevin kilty
June 27, 2021 11:48 am

That implies a dew point of 83°F, that would be very, very unlikely. It’s hard to exceed 75°F in New Hampshire, and NH often is in the same muggy air mass that feeds Pennsylvania.

rah
June 27, 2021 7:53 am

1,500 Years Of Heatwaves 1,500 Years Of Heatwaves | Real Climate Science
I found these very old accounts very interesting:

A RECORD OF HOT SUMMERS.
IN 637 the heat was so great in France and Germany that all springs dried up, and water became so scarce that many people died of thirst.
In 873 work in the field had to be given up ; agricultural labourers persisting in their work were struck down in a few minutes, so powerful was the sun.
In 993 the sun’s rays were so fierce that vegetation burned up as under the action of fire.
In 1000 rivers ran dry under the protracted heat ; the fish were left dry in heaps, and putrified in a few hours. The stench that ensued produced the plague.
Men and animals venturing in the sun in the summer of 1022 fell down dying; the throat parched to a tinder and the blood rushed to the brain.
In 1132 not only did the rivers dry up but the ground cracked on every side, and became baked to the hardness of stone. The Rhine in Alsace nearly dried up.
Italy was visited with terrific heat in 1139; vegetations and plants were burned up.
During the battle of Bela, in 1260, there were more victims made by the sun than by weapons; men fell down sunstruck in regular rows.
In 1303 and 1304 the Rhine, Loire, and Seine ran dry.
Scotland suffered particularly in 1625; men and beasts die in scores.
The heat in several French departments during the summer of 1705 was equal to that in a glass furnace. Meat could be cooked by merely exposing it to the sun. Not a soul dared venture out between noon and 4 p.m.
In 1718 the thermometer rose to 118 deg.
In 1779 the heat at Bologna was so great that a great number of people was stifled. There was not sufficient air for the breath, and people had to take refuge under-ground.
In July, 1793, the heat became intolerable. Vegetables were burned up, and fruit dried upon the trees. The furniture and woodwork in dwelling-houses cracked and split up; meat went bad in an hour.
The rivers ran dry in several provinces during 1811; expedients had to be devised for the grinding of corn.
In 1822 a protracted heat was accompanied by storms and earthquakes; during the drought legions of mice overran Lorraine and Alsace, committing incalculable damage.
In 1832 the heat brought about cholera in France; 20,000 persons fell victims to the visitation in Paris alone.
In 1846 the thermometer marked 125 deg. in the sun.
29 Nov 1888 – A RECORD OF HOT SUMMERS. – Trove

B Clarke
Reply to  rah
June 27, 2021 9:05 am

Good research. 1811 was that not part of the dalton minimum?

Editor
Reply to  B Clarke
June 27, 2021 12:07 pm

That was probably little bit before the peak of the Dalton Minimum, but close. One thing I found amusing is that in 1816, the Year without a Summer, New Hampshire reached 100°F one afternoon, and Massachusetts a bit higher. I had suspected that the explosion of Mount Tambora the year before gave us a highly amplified storm track/jet stream that had been pushed southward, and this high temperature was helped confirm that.

John Shotsky
June 27, 2021 8:18 am

I’m in Beaverton, and it’s already 85 at 0816…yesterday we hit 106 here, 107 in Portland, and today is already way ahead of yesterday.

n.n
Reply to  John Shotsky
June 27, 2021 8:25 am

Portland, huh. Urban Social Justice effect?

Ebor
Reply to  John Shotsky
June 27, 2021 9:02 am

We’re a little SW of you towards Newberg at 1,500 feet – the low up here was 80. Yesterday it was 72 and we got up to 97, Newberg 104. Wouldn’t be surprised if we hit 105 today – which would put Newberg around 112.

John Shotsky
Reply to  John Shotsky
June 27, 2021 2:54 pm

Now it’s 110 at 1500 in Beaverton. East wind has started up which may cause a few more degrees due to compression. It’s one hot MF out there, and I’m grilling (slow cooking) ribs right now.

B Clarke
June 27, 2021 8:21 am

The BBC have got hold of this now.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-57626173

B Clarke
Reply to  B Clarke
June 27, 2021 2:40 pm

Since I first posted the above link, the article has been edited to include climate change as a ” could be reason for extreme heatwaves”

observa
June 27, 2021 8:21 am

How many thousands is the US up to now?
1936 North American heat wave – Wikipedia
What precautions is Trudeau taking while Biden has the National Guard rolling out emergency airconditioners and ice machines? Do you need more international help?

rah
Reply to  observa
June 27, 2021 9:17 am

Gotta take care of the democrat ANTIFA thugs.

Bri
June 27, 2021 8:43 am

I’m in middle of it in Wenatchee. We are heading to 111 today after 106 yesterday. But rather than blame global warming, I wonder if climatologists track these events as a function of pressure as well as temperature. There is a giant high pressure system that is driving this. What is the cause of the pressure?

Editor
Reply to  Bri
June 27, 2021 11:52 am

Read Cliff Mass’s earlier blog post, https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/06/the-reason-for-extreme-warmth-on-monday.html :

Ingredient One: An unusually strong area of high pressure aloft over our region (known as an upper-level ridge), associated with sinking air and unusually warm temperatures.  

At the surface, this feature is associated with high pressure to the east of the Cascade crest, which tends to produce weak offshore (easterly) flow. Such easterly flow keeps the cooling influence of the Pacific Ocean away.

Why did we get this high amplitude ridge?  It is associated with a highly amplified wave pattern in the eastern Pacific, which may have been caused by a tropical system interacting with the jet stream (see below). This is the result of natural variability ( I did a paper exploring this issue with climate models)

Ingredient Two: An Approaching Trough of Low Pressure That Creates Strong Easterly/Downslope Flow over the Western Slopes of the Cascades



Ed Zuiderwijk
June 27, 2021 10:02 am

One can analyse aspects of predictions till the cows come home. In the end the only analysis worth doing is the one why the prediction was wrong.

P Wells
June 27, 2021 10:35 am

Sounds to me as if the Milankovitch Cycles are working full force. Recall that one of the cycles involves the shape of the earth’s orbit, and as the orbit becomes more elliptical the distance from the sun varies more, and does so seasonally. Recall this past winter the unusual conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn in the evening sky in December, working to elongate the orbit and pull us away from the sun in the winter. This would put us closer in the summer, and therefore hotter. Conversely, further in the winter and colder (recall Texas and the rest of the U.S. back then.) MIlankovitch theory says this causes the big ice ages, as the ice builds up glaciers in the winter in the northern hemisphere.

It will be interesting to see how things go temperature-wise this winter.

Brad
June 27, 2021 11:07 am

The emotional components of this article are disappointing. Looks like The author may be looking for a TV gig, pushing the climate screamer POV.
The only missing part is “WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!🤯

Sara
Reply to  Brad
June 27, 2021 11:45 am

You’re right, Brad. We need a t-shirt with a thermometer showing the dreaded +100F temperatures (for those 4 days) and that “WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!” emblazoned across the front. (No sarc, either.)

It’s just weather, nothing unusual, but some people have to turn it into a panic-attack scenario, because otherwise, they won’t get enough attention from their TV audiences.

I seem to be leaning more toward chilly weather than warm these days. Usually, I prefer the warmer temps. Got no explanation for that, either.

Editor
Reply to  Brad
June 27, 2021 11:57 am

E.g. “I never expected to see such temperatures in my lifetime”?

I’m willing to give Cliff a break, after all, he wrote the book on PNW weather, see https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0295988479/

Last edited 1 month ago by Ric Werme
Brad
Reply to  Ric Werme
June 27, 2021 10:47 pm

Cliff got roasted a few years back for not subscribing to the CO2 mania. The screamers wanted him fired?

Jake J
Reply to  Brad
June 27, 2021 3:09 pm

I’ve lived in the PNW for 25 years, and this is unusual, especially in June. You generally see temps this hot at this time of year only in the desert southwest. Any AGW b.s. aside, this weather really does qualify as memorable. And come on, Mass is a weather guy, and a SUPERB one at that. They live for moments like this, and his discussions are second to none. As I write, it’s 105, and our 1,800-foot location is typically 6 degrees cooler than on the Columbia River — which it was yesterday. Haven’t been down there today.

Andrew Wilkins
June 27, 2021 2:04 pm

This potentially record breaking event is superbly fascinating – please keep the updates coming!
On the flip side it’s depressing to think the thermaggedonists will definitely use this brief bit of weather to claim it is evidence that the whole climate is going to explode in a ball of fire.

Cue Griff and the bedwetters….

Pat from kerbob
June 27, 2021 2:42 pm

Here in calgary they are talking about an unprecedented heat wave that if we get 6-7 days above 30c it will be the first time ever…….since 1912.

So global warming finally got us back to where we were 109 years ago

Yay global warming

Rich Davis
Reply to  Pat from kerbob
June 28, 2021 3:29 am

Don’t get your hopes up Pat. Winter will be back, come September:)

Mike Maguire
June 27, 2021 2:56 pm

Portland airport hit 111 in the last 30 minutes which surpasses yesterday and is the new all time hottest ever/record. I noted an EAST wind at 11/12mph. This is taking the already hot air to the west and downsloping it on the west side of the Cascades which is adding to the heat. 
Portland NWS: https://www.weather.gov/pqr/
Seattle NWS: https://www.weather.gov/sew/

The hottest temperature in Oregon history was:

117 °F / 47 °C July 27, 1939
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_territory_temperature_extremes

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71468/#71660

Mike Maguire
June 27, 2021 3:01 pm

This is taking the already hot air to the west(should be east sorry about that) and downsloping it on the west side of the Cascades which is adding to the heat.

goldminor
June 27, 2021 3:43 pm

The forecasts appear to have been high by 4F. My area was forecast for106F. The high has been 102F. Portland Oregon is currently at 108F, missing the 112F forecast according to WeatherBug.

Peter Morris
June 27, 2021 3:54 pm

Oh no! Weather variability means my parents should’ve stopped driving cars in the 60s! We’re doomed.

Except when it’s unseasonably cold and then it’s just random weather.

Last edited 1 month ago by Peter Morris
Joel Snider
June 27, 2021 4:41 pm

I was out working in this sh*t all day – driving a truck over the mountain. Up in the hills it was around 99-102 – when I got back into town just now, at 4:40 it’s 108.
It DID get to 113 inside my car sitting in the parking lot all day.

Joel Snider
Reply to  Joel Snider
June 27, 2021 4:42 pm

That’s in the hills fourteen miles west of Portland OR.

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