Sea Level Rise Fastest in 2000 Years (Or Not!)

Reposted from NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT!

JUNE 14, 2021

By Paul Homewood

image

The rate of sea-level rise in the 20th century along much of the U.S. Atlantic coast was the fastest in 2,000 years, and southern New Jersey had the fastest rates, according to a Rutgers-led study.

The global rise in sea level from melting ice and warming oceans from 1900 to 2000 led to a rate that’s more than twice the average for the years 0 to 1800 – the most significant change, according to the

study in the journal Nature Communications.

The study, for the first time, looked at the phenomena that contributed to sea-level change over 2,000 years at six sites along the coast (in Connecticut, New York City, New Jersey and North Carolina) using a sea-level budget. A budget enhances understanding of the processes driving sea-level change. The processes are global, regional (including geological, such as land subsidence) and local, such as groundwater withdrawal.

“Having a thorough understanding of sea-level change at sites over the long term is imperative for regional and local planning and responding to future sea-level rise,” said lead author

Jennifer S. Walker, a postdoctoral associate in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences in the School of Arts and Sciences at Rutgers University–New Brunswick. “By learning  how different processes vary over time and contribute to sea-level change, we can more accurately estimate future contributions at specific sites.”

Sea-level rise stemming from climate change threatens to permanently inundate low-lying islands, cities and lands. It also heightens their vulnerability to flooding and damage from coastal and other storms.

Most sea-level budget studies are global and limited to the 20th and 21st centuries. Rutgers-led researchers estimated sea-level budgets for longer time frames over 2,000 years. The goal was to better understand how the processes driving sea level have changed and could shape future change, and this sea-level budget method could be applied to other sites around the world.

Using a statistical model, scientists developed sea-level budgets for six sites, dividing sea-level records into global, regional and local components. They found that regional land subsidence – sinking of the land since the Laurentide ice sheet retreated thousands of years ago – dominates each site’s budget over the last 2,000 years. Other regional factors, such as ocean dynamics, and site-specific local processes, such as groundwater withdrawal that helps cause land to sink, contribute much less to each budget and vary over time and by location.

As the actual data shows, the rate of sea level rise in New Jersey has been pretty constant since 1910, which suggests that carbon dioxide emissions have little overall effect. What we are seeing is the result of natural global warming since the Little Ice Age ended:

mean trend plot

https://www.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=8534720

The study claims that 20thC sea level rise is double that of the years 0 to 1800. But their modelling does not take account of changing century or decadal trends within the period. We know for a fact that glaciers advanced massively between the 17th and 19thC. There therefore had to have been a significant reduction in sea level rise at that time, maybe even a fall in sea levels as HH lamb believed.

Lamb also believed that glaciers were almost as great as the LIA in the previous cold epoch, around AD 450 to 850. There will therefore have been fluctuations in the long term trend, with sea levels rising faster at times, and slower at others.

What we do know is that many of the world’s glaciers are bigger now than they were in the Middle Ages and before.

As with all climate studies, the object is to prove climate change is “getting worse than ever”. Hence talk of accelerating sea level rise. The intention is to make people fearful of something which is too tiny to concern them.

NOAA kindly provide this chart, comparing actual sea level rise with official projections:

image

https://www.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=8534720

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Scissor
June 14, 2021 2:05 pm

Not, or even nonexistent, in other places.

June 14, 2021 2:12 pm

Fear triumphs over facts when these social ‘scientists’ pontificate.
We are lost in the world of facts while they disport in the fairyland of fantasy.
To whom are the people trained to listen…?

philincalifornia
June 14, 2021 2:12 pm

Climate Crackpots at work.

dk_
June 14, 2021 2:20 pm

Still wrong, but at least they said that it has nothing to do with CO2. Billy Preston’s “Nothing from nothing” should be the new green goons’ theme song.

Rod Evans
June 14, 2021 2:40 pm

Do my eyes deceive me? NOAA provide a graph with some scary lines marked from extreme to low and the observed line is tracking the low sea level rise perfectly.
Perhaps the sea level rise is not accelerating after all. Perhaps the sea level is just doing its very stable steady state thing, that it has been doing for the past 7,000 years and maybe all this concern about CO2 impacting sea level, via global warming is just plain wrong?

Rud Istvan
June 14, 2021 2:43 pm

Actually looked at this new Rutgers nonsense after Paul alerted me it this morning. There are two massive problems:

First, their millennial ‘model’ of the past is not a statistical model based on past observation, it is a ‘model’ built only on obviously wrong historical guesswork. For example, we know alpine glaciers in Europe and in Glacier National Park have ebbed and flowed from where their moraines stopped and what has emerged from beneath them—so SLR cannot have been continuous, nor always low, as ‘modeled’. Greenland ice cores also show similar irregular patterns of its ice sheet accumulation on a larger scale than mountain glaciers.

Second, their statistical methods to sort the past century’s global from regional from local contributions at a mere 8 east coast tide gauges has an easy work around proving its general conclusions false: go get the 70 or so diffGPS corrected (for local vertical land motion) long record tide gauge SLR records. They disagree with Rutgers results, but do agree with one another around the world—showing that the SLR rate has for at least 7 decades been about constant globally at about 2.2mm/year, with no regional differences to account for, no acceleration, and with closure (for which last see my years ago guest post here ‘Sea Level Rise, Acceleration, and Closure’).

dk_
Reply to  Rud Istvan
June 14, 2021 4:21 pm
CO2isLife
June 14, 2021 2:49 pm

Sea Level Rise is a complete joke. Sea Levels are <b>FALLING</b> at many places around the globe. The Ice Age Compressed and distorted coasts around the N Hemi and that is what is impacting sea levels, not melting glaciers.
https://imgur.com/a/siHPINY

Tedz
Reply to  CO2isLife
June 14, 2021 10:51 pm

That’s the rebound from Scandinavia’s ice sheet melt. The Gulf of Bothnia (google it) is expected to have no access to the Baltic in 2000 years around Kvarken.

CO2isLife
Reply to  Tedz
June 15, 2021 5:14 am

Yep, thank you. Factors totally unrelated to CO2 are dramatically changing sea level. That link has falling sea levels from all around the globe, not just the Gulf of Bothnia.

Van Doren
Reply to  Tedz
June 15, 2021 6:28 am

In 2000 years there may be a new Scandinavia’s ice sheet…

boffin77
Reply to  Tedz
June 15, 2021 8:18 am

Similarly, Hudson Bay is getting shallower and smaller every year.

Jeffery P
Reply to  CO2isLife
June 15, 2021 11:30 am

You’re correct about the compressed coastlines, but wouldn’t expansion (decompression) of coastal areas cause sea levels to fall if the data is not corrected properly?

joe - the non climate scientist
June 14, 2021 2:50 pm

The acceleration of sea level rise since the advent of the satellite measurement is an artifact of the different measuring device

note the history of adjustments to the records

1) prior to the satellite measurement, the tide gauges showed 1.5 to 2.25mm per year rise.
2) after the introduction of the satellite, the satellite showed 3.1-3.2 mm rise per year from 1993 to 2015. The tide gauges shows the same 2.0 – 2.25mm per year.
3) Approximately in 2016, a downward adjustment was made in the “satellite records to show the satellite rise of 2.0mm to match the tide gauges in the 1993 with an acceleration to 3.3mm circa 2016 in order to show a high accelaration of sea level. yet the tide gauges still showed 2.0-2.2 mm per year in 2016.
4) sometime in in 2020, the global mean tide gauge record was adjusted to show 3.3mm acceleration to match the new satellite record.

somehow, those adjustements look a little dubious

Steve Case
Reply to  joe - the non climate scientist
June 14, 2021 3:17 pm

Joe, this site
https://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/
has all the tide gauge data you could wish for. And as far as I know, it hasn’t been adjusted.

Regarding adjustments, that is the realm of the satellite boys, and they have been adjusting the crap out of their data. Here’s a graph that illustrates the point:
comment image

Each data point represents the rate of sea level rise since 1992. As you can see, the rate in 2004 had been a little over 2.6 mm/yr and by 2016 it had been adjusted, corrected, gun decked, dry labbed, pencil whipped, call it what you want, to a phenomenal almost 3.6 mm/yr.

Colorado U’s Sea Level Group
https://sealevel.colorado.edu/
has produced two releases since then that now show acceleration where there hadn’t been any in 2016, and now shows 0.084 mm/yr² in 2018 and bumped up to 0.097 mm/yr² in their latest 2020 release. I can hardly wait to see what bullshit rate they are going to claim on their next release when ever that is.

Reply to  Steve Case
June 14, 2021 7:17 pm

I seem to remember someone at WUWT (was it Willis or Dave Burton?) saying they thought that even the PSMSL data was now being corrupted. That would be very sad it if was true.

Does anyone have info on this?

ATheoK
Reply to  Steve Case
June 14, 2021 10:06 pm

How does one average global sea level when tidal movements are slight near the equator and immense near the poles?

Sea level ends up as a remainder from tidal measurements. The greater the water movement, the harder it is to isolate a pure remainder accurate within a few millimeters.

Besides, it is my understanding that any sea level information kept at Colorado EDU has 1.2mm SLR correction applied automatically.

joe - the non climate scientist
Reply to  Steve Case
June 15, 2021 6:20 am

Steve – thanks for the link – Thankful that someone is preserving the data from the WAYBACK machine to document the adjustments and prevent the loss of the data showing the adjustments

Van Doren
Reply to  joe - the non climate scientist
June 15, 2021 5:27 am

Satellites cannot measure anything – uncertainties are much greater than the result.

Ron Long
June 14, 2021 2:54 pm

Usually when a significant glacial load melts the terrain rebounds and rises. How fast? Yes.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Ron Long
June 14, 2021 3:49 pm

That should counteract any SL rise. However, there was typically also a fore-bulge in front of the glacier. As that adjusted, it would make the SL appear to rise. That is why DGPS is essential to sort out the different drivers.

Tedz
Reply to  Ron Long
June 14, 2021 6:04 pm

And a doughnut ring of land around the glacial load which was forced UP as the load formed, then begins to collapse back down. As is happening in areas of the US east coast. Even better examples in Sweden.

Doonman
Reply to  Ron Long
June 14, 2021 11:49 pm

In coastal Northern California, in 1906, a great earthquake on the San Andreas fault struck. As evidenced by railroad tracks the land on the ocean side of the fault slipped 16 feet northward. As evidenced by mussel colonies exposed above seal level on pier pilings, the land also rose a foot.

In coastal Northern California, in 1989, an almost great earthquake on the same section of the San Andreas fault struck. As evidenced by state highways, the ocean side of the fault slipped 5 feet northward. As evidenced by mussel colonies exposed above seal level on pier pilings, the land also rose a foot.

So in 83 years, the coast of northern California rose 2 feet. Since no one has ever suggested that the San Andreas fault will stop slipping, I’m pretty sure the sea level rise emergency there in Northern California can be cancelled.

Steve Case
June 14, 2021 2:56 pm

NOAA kindly provide this chart, comparing actual sea level rise with official projections:

Even their “Low” dark blue line for Atlantic City, NJ graphically comes to 8.6 mm/yr by 2100.
That’s over double today’s rate. Who in their right mind thinks that’s going to happen?

It looks plausible on the graph, but in reality it is not. The other lines out to three meters and beyond are just nuts.

Sea level is the biggest scare the Climate Crusaders have, but graphs like this represent a gross overplaying of their hand.

Mr.
Reply to  Steve Case
June 14, 2021 3:13 pm

Sea level is the biggest scare the Climate Crusaders have

Oh, I dunno –

it’s obviously not at all scary enough to stop the Obamas, the Gateses, the Gores, the Suzukis and other “climate champions” of the world spending vast treasures on their seaside luxury estates acquisitions.

(Maybe they know something they’re reluctant to share with the rest of us?)

AndyHce
Reply to  Mr.
June 14, 2021 7:35 pm

Perhaps there will be, as yet unannounced, large subsidies for those brave enough to stay and fight. Better get your position established early!

Graemethecat
Reply to  Mr.
June 15, 2021 3:38 am

The government of the Maldives was very vocal in denouncing SLR a few years ago, going as far as holding a Cabinet meeting underwater to draw attention to it. Strangely, however, they are currently building a large new airport at less than 1 m above sea level. As always, watch what people do, not what they say.

philincalifornia
Reply to  Steve Case
June 14, 2021 9:03 pm

Sea level is the biggest scare the Climate Crusaders have”

Hey, hold on a sec. It was always the bronze medalist at the Climate Crackpot Olympic Games. Arctic Sea Ice and Polar Bears, while being severely past their prime, aren’t finished yet.

….. well, maybe they are, but some drones don’t know it yet, so Sshhhhh.

David Kamakaris
June 14, 2021 3:03 pm

“Sea-level rise stemming from climate change threatens to permanently inundate low-lying islands, cities and lands. ”

The insinuation from this statement is that humans burning fossil fuels is solely responsible for current sea level rise. Oh the humanity!

For those of you who have swallowed the kool-aid, I’d like to refer you to a geologic map of the Coastal Plain of the eastern USA. You will see that much of it is overlain by a marine sediment late-Pleistocene in age. I live 3000 meters from the Atlantic Ocean in Tidewater, Virginia. If I was at my current location back then and wanted to go to the shore, I would have to swim 50km west.

So how was it so warm back then that the sea level was so much greater than today? For those who want to cite Milankovich Cycles, you’ll need to explain mid-Holocene, Roman, Mideval climate optimums as well as the 1930’s.

Last edited 1 month ago by David Kamakaris
Peter W
Reply to  David Kamakaris
June 14, 2021 3:19 pm

The chart I have from a lecture on Milankovich Cycles shows that it was warmer 6,000 years ago, and the current warming was obviously the result of the most recent so-called 1,500 year cycle (actually more like a 1,000 year cycle) which gave us the so-called “little ice age.”

H.R.
June 14, 2021 3:26 pm

Ha! I had to hunt for a bit before I finally picked out the “Observed” line on the NOAA Atlantic City Sea Level graph. The emphasis is on the scary, colorful curls shooting up on the right.

Anyone educated before about 1970, with a H.S. education and a ‘C’ average, would look at that graph, scratch their head wondering what the fuss is about, and then laugh.

Right-Handed Shark
June 14, 2021 3:31 pm

From the linked article:

“These photos show approximately the same view in October (left) and September 2016. The hill in the upper left corner is the same. Photo by Jennifer S. Walker”

Are you sure, Jennifer? Because the later picture shows that the area in review was a little dryer. But it is not unusual in climate science to get things exactly backwards. You are almost at the level of Mann!

Last edited 1 month ago by Right-Handed Shark
Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Right-Handed Shark
June 14, 2021 3:54 pm

As I recollect, the flooded scene was the result of storm surge. And, the area is subsiding! There is, understandably, concern about the local ‘ghost forests.’ However, it is not a representative example of SLR!

ATheoK
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
June 14, 2021 10:08 pm

Down around New Orleans there are multiple ghost forests.
By and large, most if not all of the ghost forests are man destroyed. i.e., dredging waste spoils were piled along areas where access ditches were dug.

The dredge walls locked in salt water and prevent fresh water inflows from floods, whether rainfall caused or river overflow.

Turns out that tends to be the case for most watercourse or coastal ghost forests:

  • Water extraction lowers land allowing salt water incursions.
  • Dredge spoils block fresh water renewal.
  • Ditch walls cause water to accumulate drowning upland woods.
  • etc. etc.

SLR rise is very low on ghost forest causes

ATheoK
Reply to  Right-Handed Shark
June 14, 2021 9:53 pm

Good catch, R-H Shark!

From the linked article:

“Published March 23, 2021

Sea-level rise leads to increased flooding at the Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge. These photos show approximately the same view in October (left) and September 2016. The hill in the upper left corner is the same. Photo by Jennifer S. Walker”

Except, the right hand picture clearly shows the remains of an old dock sticking above the water. There are no old dock posts sticking above the grasses that are allegedly flooded in the right hand picture.
Flooded as in the alleged dry grasses are well submerged in the flooded picture.

Then there is their phrasing:

  • Left picture taken in October (2016?).
  • Right picture taken approximately a month before the left picture.

That is, the flooded picture occurred before the dry land picture?
Clearly their picture and attribution are meant to confuse viewers while they baldly lie.

Besides, that land looks just like tidal marshlands.

William Ballinger
Reply to  Right-Handed Shark
June 14, 2021 10:29 pm

Even worse is the roads don’t match. The picture on the right has the dirt road curving right and the left picture has the road curving left. Nor is there enough of the hill in the right picture to claim it is the same one. Even the grasses look different.

Marcus
June 14, 2021 3:46 pm

“As the actual data shows, the rate of sea level rise in New Jersey has been pretty constant since 1910”

Interestingly, if you calculate 40-year trends, the rate of sea level rise at the site you chose starts at about 4 mm/year, drops to 3 mm/year for the 40-year periods centered around midcentury, and then grows steadily to over 5 mm/year in the 40-year periods centered on years more recent than the early 1990s. So acceleration of about 0.05 mm/yr/yr.

Geoff Sherrington
Reply to  Marcus
June 14, 2021 4:41 pm

Marcus,
What are the 2sigma error bounds to your figures assuming the observed distributions are suited to some form of statistical error analysis? Geoff S

Marcus
Reply to  Geoff Sherrington
June 15, 2021 5:46 am

Actually, it turns out the NOAA website includes something like what you want – they show 95% confidence intervals around 50 year trends (though I don’t know exactly what goes into the confidence interval calculation):

https://www.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=8534720

Based on that, it looks like the most recent 50 year trend of sea level rise is about 95% likely to have been faster than the full period trend.

ATheoK
Reply to  Marcus
June 14, 2021 10:26 pm

And SLR measurement is accurate to 1mm?comment image?

Utter BS.

Water levels change in response to low/high pressure weather systems, tidal movement, lunar orbit, local influences – pumps, rainfall, storm surges, wind driven water movement, etc. etc.

Last edited 1 month ago by ATheoK
Marcus
Reply to  ATheoK
June 15, 2021 5:54 am

Sure. But weather systems, tidal movements, etc. generally average out when considering a 50 year trend. If you want to get a grasp on the potential contribution of local influences, that’s when you start looking at multiple different nearby stations (whose rates of sea level rise do indeed vary by a mm or so… but they do all show similar temporal patterns of faster sea level rise in the 30s, slower in the 50s/60s, and then faster or fastest in the last periods). But the original poster had picked out one station, so I did my analysis on the one station they picked out.

TonyL
Reply to  Marcus
June 15, 2021 7:19 am

It is a well known oscillation in long term SLR. The exact cause is unclear to me at this time. I note that the period coincides to the nodal precession of the moon. (~80 years) Willis E. thinks it is due to some Sun/Earth/Moon orbital mechanics at ~56 years. As tides vary one per day to 2 per day, and amplitude variations are huge for different locations, the primary cause of the long term cycle may shift as well. In any event, there is no reason to believe the current upswing in SLR is anything but cyclical. (I note here that NOAA has been caught truncating the data prior to 1970, and claiming the upswing is AGW.)

Here is my take. The first plot shows 2 curved lines which are higher-order polynomials I used to curve fit the cycle. The straight red/blue line is the linear fit (blue) and the X^2 acceleration fit (red line) As you can see, they overlay each other, so no long term acceleration.

The second plot is the same data set with a more proper sine wave modeled in, as per the fit obtained with the polynomials. This eliminates the polynomial tendency to shoot off wildly at both ends. Take all this with the usual amount of skepticism, here is the data.

TonyL
Reply to  TonyL
June 15, 2021 7:22 am

Here is the first.

Bos1SLR.PNG
TonyL
Reply to  TonyL
June 15, 2021 7:22 am

Here is the second.

Bos2SLR.png
Geoff Sherrington
Reply to  ATheoK
June 17, 2021 1:45 am

Marcus,
Quite so. Even an eyeball of the graph supplied shows about 90% of data between +/- 150 mm a year. I have no confidence that the official claim of +/- 0.15 mm a year.
There is a factor of 1,000between these estimates of variability. Geoff S

TonyL
June 14, 2021 3:51 pm

I made this recently, after I saw several claims in the media about SLR. One TV “science” show claimed 10 ft. of SLR by 2100 for New York City, others made similar claims. I used Boston data because that was handy, and Boston and NYC are are the East Coast twins of SLR.
This is what 10 ft. of SLR by 2100 looks like.
I graphed actual, extrapolated out
Constant rate
Constant acceleration.
For constant acceleration, the final rate is given at the end, at 2100.
Anybody here can tell me if this looks anything like plausible.
Loony Tunes

BosFloods.png
Chris Nisbet
Reply to  TonyL
June 14, 2021 5:15 pm

Aah, I think that’s why we have ‘tipping points’.

TonyL
Reply to  Chris Nisbet
June 14, 2021 5:39 pm

Correct, you are. Those Tipping Points will have to do some Serious tipping.
Perhaps the Tipping Point is like when the island of Guam tips over. {With a hat tip to US Rep. Hank Johnson}. If that is the case, Manhattan will tip over as well, but Boston has nothing to worry about except for the harbor islands.

ATheoK
Reply to  TonyL
June 14, 2021 10:32 pm

Yup!
Exactly the kind of SLR Hansen expected when he made his SLR impact predictions back in 1988.

He was wrong then, even after his disciples claimed he meant 10, 20, 30 years further in the future.

Now the sea level catastrophism is somewhere between now and 2100, maybe.

Chris Hanley
June 14, 2021 4:20 pm

Common Era sea-level budgets along the U.S. Atlantic coast …… The most significant change in the budgets is the increasing influence of the common global signal due to ice melt and thermal expansion since 1800 CE … (Abstract, Walker et al.).

‘Temperature-driven expansion is not due to mass (ice melt) but density change and therefore along coasts where the the water depth approaches zero is not important’ (see climate4you->oceans->sea level in general).

June 14, 2021 4:48 pm

Don’t worry — John Kerry is working the issue — and he looks good on his surf board … https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9F8LSxR4Yo&t

Mr.
Reply to  John Shewchuk
June 14, 2021 7:51 pm

John Kerry is working the issue 

Now that’s the scariest thing I’ve ever heard about climate matters.

Reply to  Mr.
June 14, 2021 8:28 pm

And now with the “Ministry of Truth” in charge of the climate, Kerry will probably get the Nobel Peace Prize like Al Gore.

Mike Lowe
June 14, 2021 4:51 pm

“Using a statistical model….” Read no more!

Geoff Sherrington
June 14, 2021 5:01 pm

Those who claim that global temperatures are rising in recovery from the little ice age might be correct. However, such a claim must be linked to a mechanism or mechanisms than can provide such warming. Some possibilities are geometric change in earth to sun distance from planetary cycles; changes in air humidity and thus in IR absorption; changes in cloud type, height thickness, reflection and/or cover; plus several other possibilities.
It is known that such factors can affect global air temperatures. Temperatures are thought to cause sea level change, with the oceans acting like the liquid in a thermometer. Yet, there is so far no accepted equation in physics that links T to rise. While this elementary link is missing, there is no point to a paper like this. Geoff S

Gordon A. Dressler
June 14, 2021 5:01 pm

Just curious as to why these “experts” continue to use the generic term “sea level rise” when they all know (or should know) that a measured SLR above about 3 mm/year (the global average as measured by satellites over the last 28 years*) has to be caused by a combination of land subsidence, prevailing winds, and tide gage errors.

*see: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/socd/lsa/SeaLevelRise/LSA_SLR_timeseries.php

Last edited 1 month ago by Gordon A. Dressler
Geoff Sherrington
June 14, 2021 5:07 pm

What happened to the old adage that water finds its own level? In paper after paper on sea level rise, this principle seems to be unknown, not mentioned, hidden because it conflicts with the intent of the author, or similar. It is simply not possible over terms of years, to have local sea level changes that differ from the global rise. Water does not form permanent hills and valleys to suit the mathematics of the authors. Geoff S

ResourceGuy
June 14, 2021 5:11 pm

Maybe it will wash away some of the NJ BS.

Tedz
June 14, 2021 5:56 pm

So, it’s actually “land level sink” caused by the melting of that ice sheet, but described as “sea level rise” and that makes it man made. Got it.

(As I read somewhere the land sinking effect is caused by the same process as when your wife gets of the water bed and you sink three inches)

bigoilbob
June 14, 2021 5:57 pm

Not sure why this station was featured. The other 2 NJ stations are qualitatively much more typical of post 1980 world trends, which are what actually matters.

Bigger pic, why are we straw manning anomalous individual stations, when we have global data? Station data can be tempered with known isostatic adjustments. Newer Sat data can be ranged and compared. it’s a Trumpian YUGE, wishful retreat from what is commonly available.

DonM
Reply to  bigoilbob
June 14, 2021 6:28 pm

hey Rube ….

Mr.
Reply to  bigoilbob
June 14, 2021 7:57 pm

Now who can argue with that?

DonM
Reply to  bigoilbob
June 14, 2021 8:16 pm

or do you prefer Roob?

PaulH
June 14, 2021 6:14 pm

Using models to develop budgets? I wonder what made them think that’s a good idea.

DHR
June 14, 2021 7:24 pm

The Atlantic City tide gauge is equipped with a GPS elevation gauge which shows the area is sinking at a rate of 1.74 mm/year since 2009 when it was installed. Most likely the area has been sinking at this or a similar rate for decades or even centuries. This means that true sea level at the City is rising at a rate of about 2.6 mm/yr, not 4.1 mm/yr. The same is true of The Battery tide gauge in NYC which shows about half of the observed sea level rise is due to sinking land. Discussing just the tide gauge sea level change is misleading where GPS data is available.

eck
June 14, 2021 7:34 pm

As soon as I read “Using a statistical model”, I stopped reading. Model? Geesh!

Robert of Texas
June 14, 2021 7:58 pm

I can’t wait for the seas to get to the bottom of my hill. I will be able to go swimming in the gulf without the long trip down to Galveston. Only…574 feet more sea level rise to go…

ATheoK
Reply to  Robert of Texas
June 14, 2021 10:47 pm

I’m only a hundred and four feet above East Coast sea level. The hill I’m on is 60-80 feet high.
Except, previous sea levels have stopped at the Fall Line along Virginia’s piedmont.
I doubt Earth can get warmer now than it was before the recent ice ages started.

Which puts the lie to alarmist claims of massive sea level rise. Supposed 10ft SLR increases are easily stopped by dikes.

Coastal sand barrier islands? They were always known to be temporary moving piles of sand.

Trying to Play Nice
Reply to  Robert of Texas
June 22, 2021 5:26 am

For the last couple of years, the Great Lakes have been at high levels. We had local idiots blaming sea level rise even though Chicago and Detroit are at around 600 feet above sea level.

Jacques Dumon
June 14, 2021 8:11 pm

There are a lot of websites displaying world’s sea level gauges datas that are available to the people to make themselves their opinion about the sea level rise. And also, sad for the IPCC, about the global warming.
I could read yesterday an article about the Copenhagen’s city project to build an artificial island with the purported aim to “protect” Copenhagen against the SL rise. https://www.lefigaro.fr/international/a-copenhague-l-ile-artificielle-de-la-discorde-20210614
Then I immediately went on the sonel.org sea level gauge of Copenhagen to find that the sea level rate in this place is 0.6 mm per year.
Conclusion: Copenhagen has no need to be “protected” against the SLR and this ruinous project, completely useless has certainly other less avowable aims.

PCman999
June 14, 2021 8:42 pm

Atlantic City’s data shows the sea level rise has been flat for 20 years, in spite of the coal burning party in Asia… I guess data is not an impediment to the new scientists, who are more political scientists than anything else.

Mr. Lee
June 14, 2021 8:46 pm

t=0 is year 2000.

y-axis is sea level in millimeters.
The red line is a 2 yr average.
Pink is an easy to see best fit line.

Cuhaven is the single best instrument for measuring the climate over the past 150 years, in my opinion.
And it shows nothing.

Screenshot 2021-06-14 11.40.42 PM.png
Mr. Lee
Reply to  Mr. Lee
June 14, 2021 9:00 pm

Hoek van Holland showing 150 years of the same.

Screenshot 2021-06-14 11.49.04 PM.png
Gordon A. Dressler
Reply to  Mr. Lee
June 15, 2021 7:17 am

Here, the slope given for the linear curve-fit is stated to be 2.4 mm/year.

A significant change and 14% higher than the Cuxhaven indicated SLR rate.

Last edited 1 month ago by Gordon A. Dressler
Gordon A. Dressler
Reply to  Mr. Lee
June 15, 2021 7:16 am

Mr. Lee,

Uhhh, the slope given for the linear curve-fit is stated to be 2.1 mm/year.

That is far from “nothing” as true SLR rates are concerned.

Mr. Lee
Reply to  Gordon A. Dressler
June 15, 2021 10:07 am

They’ve been doing the same thing for 150 years. This means that CO2 has noting to do with it. Do try to keep up.

Gordon A. Dressler
Reply to  Mr. Lee
June 15, 2021 4:34 pm

Mr. Lee,

Hmmmm . . . if the two tide gages that you referred to have actually been “doing the same thing for 150 years” as you assert, that must mean that the global atmospheric cooling trend averaged over the period of 1940-1975 (yes, 35 continuous years) did not cause any thermal contraction of ocean waters. That is, global atmospheric cooling did not, in turn, lead to cooling the world’s oceans and thus did not increase salt water density and thus there was not any perturbation in the SLR trend line over this specific time interval).

Sorry, but I indeed can’t stay even—let alone, “keep up with”— such bizarre “science”.

Trying to Play Nice
Reply to  Gordon A. Dressler
June 22, 2021 5:27 am

Are you saying the data is wrong because it doesn’t fit your “science”?

Kevin E Todd
June 14, 2021 8:50 pm

Accelerating sea level rise is to make people fearful of something which is too tiny to concern them. And it works. Carmakers like Volvo is dedicated to reversing that trend.

Trying to Play Nice
Reply to  Kevin E Todd
June 22, 2021 5:31 am

Well, it is a Chinese auto company.

ATheoK
June 14, 2021 8:56 pm

Using a statistical model, scientists developed sea-level budgets for six sites, dividing sea-level records into global, regional and local components. They found that regional land subsidence – sinking of the land since the Laurentide ice sheet retreated thousands of years ago – dominates each site’s budget over the last 2,000 years.”

According to their “statistical model”, land subsidence increased sea level rise?

And their “model” shows that land subsidence dominates each site’s sea level rise for the last 2,000 year?

That’s some circle self-satisfaction models they program.
Maybe they should wake up and do some genuine field research.

Redge
June 14, 2021 9:53 pm

The NOAA graph tells you everything you need to know about sea-level rise.

Since 2000 only 2 predictions have come close to reality – “intermediate low” and “low”.

Anyone with even a brain the size of an amoeba can see there is no need to be fussed about sea level rise – the oceans are just doing what they’ve always done.

John
June 14, 2021 10:00 pm

The la nina effect moved 1 trillion tonnes of water from West Coast Western Australia to East Coast of Africa
I worked this out as about 10mm in a season
Interestingly if sea level rises in one area it should be the southern hemisphere
The artic ice is floating on the ocean and due to basic hydraulics has already been countered for as ice or water

I think our climate scientists need a physics/engineering degree before they are taken seriously and not an ecomomics humanity degree
But as they say money is the driver not truth

Lasse
June 15, 2021 12:12 am

Use this form of graph:
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=8518750
It shows change in paste.
No connection with CO2

Hans Erren
June 15, 2021 1:42 am

“Sea-level rise stemming from climate change threatens to permanently inundate low-lying islands”

Barrier islands migrate laterally in sync with sea level, and coral reefs grow together with sea level (Darwin). So plain alarmism.

Ian Coleman
June 15, 2021 2:36 am

I live in Alberta, Canada, and the Rocky Mountains are between the Pacific Ocean and me. So, I ain’t worried, boys.

Earthwell
June 15, 2021 2:47 am

Is it the ripple effect brought by greenhouse gases? My focus will still be car industry that is the key factor, I believe, in turning the table. Some products like nissan teana should be levied more taxes!

Jim Gorman
June 15, 2021 5:21 am

has anyone ever gone developed a sea level back into the Little Ice Age and plotted it out to current?

Van Doren
June 15, 2021 5:24 am

Ice melting? Greenland has lost 5*10¹² m³ (5,000 Gigaton) ice in 40 years, Antarctic ice was more or less stable, everything is negligible. The total seawater area is 361 km² = 361*10¹² m². Therefore, ice melting contributed 5/361 = 1.4 cm in sea level rise. In 40 years! Or 0.35 mm/year.

Last edited 1 month ago by Van Doren
Scott Anderson
June 15, 2021 5:28 am

I live near the coast of North Carolina My ground elevation is about 23′ above sea level; my question is when can I expect to have oceanfront property?

Nicholas McGinley
June 15, 2021 7:34 am

It is very simple, really: It is all bullshit, all the time, from the climate mafia.

Just keep that in mind, and refer to it whenever they say anything.

Andy Pattullo
June 15, 2021 7:50 am

Look at the pretty rainbow of lines rising to the sky. So much more fun than that dreary black squiggle hugging the baseline. Don’t we all want a future full of rainbows? Let’s not ruin the fun by insisting on only one paltry set of truths. Why can’t science be more like science fiction?

Olen
June 15, 2021 8:29 am

Still waiting to see something unusual and dramatic. Right or wrong it does not hurt to look. Unless it influences laws and regulations.

J. Bob
June 15, 2021 10:20 am

Since sea levels have been recorded for hundreds of years, and the fact that ocean water expands and contracts with temperature, like a thermometer, it is an excellent indicator of the earth surface temperature. 
 
Since CO2 is supposedly the main culprit of climate change, comparing atmospheric CO2 and sea level one can test the so called human caused climate change theory. The graph below was from data supplied by the Scripps Institute (CO2 levels). and sea level data from PSMSL based in Liverpol UK ( http://www.psmsl.org/ ) or NOAA ( http://www.sealevel.info/data.psp&nbsp;). The following is a graph of global sea leve (Holegate9 model) comparing sea level rise with CO2 level since 1910. It illustrates that sea level rise rise, has not increased, or accelerated in spite of the sudden increase in CO2 since the 1950’s. According to climate change theory, sea levels should be accelerating, however no significant change in sea level rise is noted. Hence that comment relating to humans having any significant effect on climate has yet to be proven.
**
https://www.dropbox.com/s/r2kkickd9s71kq9/Holgate9_Vs_CO2.jp g?dl=0
*

Steve Z
June 15, 2021 11:31 am

If one draws a straight line through the Atlantic City, NJ sea level rise data from 1960 through 2020, and extends it through the year 2100, the extrapolated sea level rise is about 0.45 meter since 2000, or 4.5 mm per year, which is even lower than the dark blue “Low” prediction line.

Why are alarmists so convinced that sea level rise will accelerate in the future, if it hasn’t accelerated over the past 60 years?

Isaac Newton discovered over 300 years ago that every acceleration requires an unbalanced force. What force will be acting over the next 80 years to accelerate sea level rise, which hasn’t been acting over the past 60 years?

C. Earl Jantzi
June 16, 2021 12:30 pm

It’s sad when these “scientists’ can’t even pass a science test to pass from 4th grade to 5th grade. What are the 4 things a green plant needs to grow? 1, nutrients form the ground, 2, water, 3,sunlight, and 4, CO2 from the air. Without CO2 in sufficient amounts, NO plants, No food supply, NO humans or animals.
We are currently around 400 parts per million of CO2. If we drop to 180ppm, plants start to die, and we ALL die at 150ppm!
We contribute about 3.5% of the CO2 in the atmosphere. The rest is totally out of our control.
Increased CO2 has contributed to the “greening” of 700,000 square kilometers of the Sahara Dessert since we have satellites to measure it.
More CO2, more plants, more food for people. ONLY FOOLS don’t know these basics.

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