The California warning signs may be verification about the drawbacks of EV’s
By Ronald Stein
Ambassador for Energy & Infrastructure, Irvine, California
With a simple stroke of the pen, Governor Newsom believes he has the power to change the lifestyles of all California residents, and control the supply-demand balance for societies and the economy’s’ transportation needs.
Granted, that half the EV’s in the entire country are registered in California, the troubling news is that there may be warning signs about a bust to the EV growth bubble, as the statistics from California demonstrate that:
- The highly educated and financially well off are currently the primary owners of EV’s.
- EV usage being slightly more than 5000 miles a year is a reflection that the EV is a second vehicle and not the family workhorse vehicle.
- The growing percentage of EV owners that are switching back to gasoline cars, is a message that may deflate EV growth projections.
- The larger and heavier gasoline driven SUVs are currently half of the new car sales.
Governor Newsom apparently did not read the required reading for the next EV owner: Drawbacks of EV’s, before he announced on September 23, 2020 an executive order to ban the sale of gas-powered vehicles by 2035. He is directing the state to require that, by 2035, all new cars and passenger trucks sold in California be zero-emission vehicles.
Maybe the residents of the other 49 states that collectively make up the other 50 percent of EV’s in America (approximately one percent per state) have read what California Governor Newsom has not comprehended from the following 20 drawbacks of EV’s provided by Motor Junkie:
20. Short Range Anxiety. Range anxiety is the number-one factor when it comes to EV downsides. Simply, modern electric vehicles are still range-limited due to their small capacity batteries. Most affordable electric cars on the market have a bit more than a 130-mile-range.
19. Long Charging Times. Even though Tesla and Porsche have made significant improvements, charging is still far from the speed to fill a gas tank. Putting the fuel in your car only takes a couple of minutes compared to charging your vehicle overnight.
18. Trip Planning Problems. Small ranges and long charging times can put a strain on any road trip plans. You cannot plan a fast trip in an electric car without knowing the location of charging stations. You will also need to know the estimated duration of charging or supercharging.
17. Mostly Good for Urban Use. The EV’s range is longer if you drive in the city. Second, there are far more charging stations in metropolitan areas.
16. Not So Environmentally Friendly. Did you ever think about what it takes to make just one electric vehicle? Apparently, the process of making a big chunk of Lithium-Ion batteries from the exotic minerals and metals mined in foreign countries, as well as their disposal is polluting since they are not recyclable. Weakest link to EV growth is the material supply chain. There may not be enough minerals and metals in the world to achieve the planned EV growth.
15. Too Expensive. There is a range of electric cars for sale on the current market, with the top models going for well over $100,000. Although there are affordable models like the Volkswagen Golf E or Nissan Leaf, electric vehicles still cost significantly more than models that run on fossil fuels.
14. Repair Difficulties. If you own an electric car, you can forget going to your local shop or fixing it inexpensively. Regardless of the type and the model, all-electric vehicles require specific maintenance and service procedures as well as extremely high safety standards.
13. Too Heavy. Some of the high-end models like the Tesla Model X, the battery pack weighs in at over 1,000 pounds. Also, the car itself weighs over 2.3 tons. Heavy vehicles mean more tire wear, more energy consumption, and maintenance too.
12. Cold Temperature Issues. Where the winters are cold and snowy, cold weather battery drain can be a big problem for everyday use. Owners report a reduced range and even the failure to operate in especially harsh winter conditions. That could be life-threatening.
11. Low Top Speeds. Most regular everyday EVs are quite slow. The top speed of the Golf E or Kia Soul EV is limited to below 100 mph, for instance.
10. Highway Driving Consumption. The advertised range that many manufacturers brag about is the average or city driving figure. However, the highway range is much smaller, sometimes up to 50 percent less.
9. High Heavy Load Consumption. No matter how strong or big your battery pack is, the energy consumption under a heavy load is excessive.
8. Ease of Tracking Your Movements. Those systems are designed to track your driving habits, locations, charging points, and so on. Are you sure that you want your every move to be recorded on a server?
7. Just Plain Ugly. There are some electric vehicles that are stunning beauties, but most of them are just plain ugly or ordinary at the very least.
6. Threatening Existing Economy Models. Some economic experts fear that the mass production of electric vehicles and focus on this kind of technology will destroy the current economic model. Also, think about the enormous car industry with all the companies that make fuel-related products, such as engine parts, fuel injection systems, transmissions, and drivetrain components. All those companies and millions of people will be out of a job, which would put further strain on the economy and global standards.
5. Major Car Companies Are Not So Sure. Although almost all the major car manufacturers have at least one electric vehicle in their lineup, most of their CEOs are not fully convinced that electric cars are the future of the industry. Their board of directors and marketing people have observed how problematic the EV segment is, so they hesitate to go all-in on electric cars.
4. Practically Unusable in Third World Countries and Markets. The EV craze is limited to just a few first world countries and markets in the world. But other than that, electric vehicles in other areas are nonexistent. Even China, the world’s biggest market, has a hard time implementing any initiatives for electric cars.
3. Buyers Still Consider Them A Gimmick. Most car buyers still consider EVs to be some sort of a sales trick. Their specific operation procedures, limited usability, and different driving dynamics make them cars for tech geeks, but not as regular transport devices.
2. An EV Cannot Be the Only Car in Your Household. Even if you own one or are looking to acquire an EV, you should know that it cannot fulfill all your transportation needs. That is especially true if you have a family and need a dependable vehicle for your family.
1. A Hard Sell. Most drivers lease their electric cars and then return them to the dealer after a few years to get a new model. However, those people who have bought electric vehicles could experience great difficulty selling them on the used car market or trading them in at the dealership.
Time will tell if the California Governor Newsom can inflict with a simple executive order, lifestyle changes to the transportation needs of residents, businesses, and the economy.
Ronald Stein, P.E.
Ambassador for Energy & Infrastructure
http://www.energyliteracy.net/
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F=MA all day everyday. When you drag an extra 1000 lbs with you everywhere you go whether fully charged or not, you waste energy not converted to motion at all times.
Electric vehicles are fine for short, infrequent and slow trips and have been around for a long time. They are called golf carts.
Not to worry. As we are constantly lectured, all of these issues will be resolved soon because reasons.
A better way to describe the mix of current EV owners is high-tax credit users, or Mini Elons. The rich are erasing part of their large tax bills and getting a vehicle and in some cases an over-priced rooftop solar system in the deal. A more fair deal for the rest of the taxpayers and voters would have been to issue a tax deduction that can be capped by other deductions and income level. But no, let’s circumvent the tax code and favor the richest buyers.
Pretty much all CAGW ‘solutions’ give rich people money from poor people. Rooftop solar and EVs are just the most obvious.
This article has a good summary of the disadvantages of owning and using EVs.
However, quite surprisingly, it does not mention the single biggest disadvantage of EVs for those truly seeking out “green” technology: that is, mass use of EVs stands to be the biggest waste of electrical energy since the invention of the heated-filament electric light bulb.
EV batteries charge and store electricity on a DC basis whereas electrical grids connected to stand-alone homes, all multi-family residential complexes, businesses and charging stations require AC electricity supply.
The AC-sourced/DC-stored-and-used electrical conversion is costly and not very efficient.
To put just this portion of the energy waste issue into perspective, consider this:
Assuming an AC-DC converter for recharging an EV at home uses a special 240 VAC, 50 A max circuit and that the converter when connected to and recharging the battery plus the batttery’s internal ohmic heating losses when being charged combine to yield an overall power transfer efficiency of 90%, eight (8) hours of recharging under such conditions yields only 61 kWh into a 100 kWh battery pack, which is near the largest size for passenger car EVs. This is equivalent to a recharge from only about a 39% depth of discharge on the battery, therefore would be not be considered a “maximum-need” situation. The energy loss during those 8 hours of charging would be 6.8 Kwh, equivalent to leaving more than eight 100 watt incandescent light bulbs on during that time.
There are additional inefficiencies resulting from the battery pack’s thermal management and monitoring/regulating systems.
Moreover, there is an additional inefficiency with the self-discharge rate of the Li-ion battery packs (almost universally used in current EVs) even when sitting idle (e.g., inside a parked car). According to http://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/elevating_self_discharge , Li-ion battery self-discharge rates are“5% in 24h, then 1–2% per month (plus 3% for safety circuit)”.
EV batteries must remain above a minimum charge level when operating and even when parked long term, to avoid permanent damage.
One does not have such non-operating/storage waste and energy/fuel-maintenance requirements with gasoline ICE automobiles that sit with their engine off over long periods.
Finally, consider that the preponderance of EVs will NOT be charged using home or work PV systems, but instead from remote power plants that have, on average, a loss of 5% of total electrical energy output in the course of distributing electrical power over the grid to the homes of end-users.
All of the above-described “inefficiences” and “losses” represent wasted energy and end up in the form of heat released into the global environment, which is something the AGW/CAGW alarmists should be concerned about, if their goal is have millions upon millions of “green” EVs running all over the planet.
This issue may be common with newer ICE vehicles too. My non-electric 2020 Kia has remote start, “find my car”, vehicle health status, and other features accessible from a smart phone. These data may be stored on a server somewhere.
I think this is an important point. We should know by now how these EV’s break down and what it takes to repair them. One of the EV sales features is that electric motors are less complicated than ICE, so repairs are simpler. That may be true, but a car is more than an engine.
For me, I wouldn’t mind a EV as a second vehicle; one that I would use for the daily commute, grocery shopping, etc. But for a longer trip on the highway, I’d prefer my ICE.
They definitely are, and they will definitely be sold and/or used for marketing.
The trouble is that since most people in the developed world voluntarily give away their personal data and location, everyone is pretty much used to it all being recorded. Surveillance by product providers of all types is now just accepted by all except the most paranoid like myself. I have no ‘smart’ devices except my phone which is as locked down as I can get it.
Yes, I’m paranoid, but am I paranoid enough?
EV’s will have there own set of problems, the issue is the number of skilled mechanics able to deal with the breakdowns will be less. Want to guess how many of the existing older service mechanics nearing retirement are going to want to learn how to fix the new EV’s.
Shortage of mechanics? The free market will resolve this. You guys should love that.
EVs are probably going to deep six a lot of brands and auto sector jobs if the transition does not go well. We’re going to need a lot more concrete and asphalt for all the extra parking spaces needed for the toy second and third cars. Who’s going to be first to buy the models from the historically least reliable brands with new tech? Sure, they can work with fewer parts than ICE models but that still leaves a lot of new parts to mess up and screw customers with. Get ready for Detroit bailout #3 on the back end of this adventure. But that also works in the new policy world where crisis is a fantastic opportunity for more overreach.
#17, as with so much of the renewable energy push, is so metrocentric. How are EV sales in the countryside?
I’ll watch from the sidelines with very long life used Toyotas and keep my money. That strategy limits the personal damage but the country will be worse off in income, savings, and productive investment. Sad times are coming in the collective unintended consequences in the name of new.
EVs are racist and elite, only the well off can afford them and that will only get worse
Indeed. over 90% of the EVs I’ve seen on the roads are driven by rich white folk. Where’s the outrage over the racisim and wealth inquality of EVs?
Unplugged: Electric Vehicles By John Phillips III, former executive editor of Car and Driver.
Car and Driver tests EVs on a formalized 200-mile loop until the vehicle whooshes to a halt, causing a traffic jam in Saginaw, where being stranded earns hazard pay. Random results:
2021 Volkswagen ID.4: 190 miles
2017 Chevrolet Bolt EV: 180 miles
2018 Tesla Model 3 Performance: 220 miles
2018 Tesla Model 3 Long Range: 200 miles
2019 Audi e-tron: 190 miles
2019 Hyundai Kona Electric: 160 miles
2019 Nissan Leaf Plus: 180 miles
2019 Tesla Model 3 Dual Motor: 230 miles
2019 Jaguar I-Pace EV400: 170 miles
2020 Tesla Model Y Long Range: 220 miles
2020 Tesla Model S Performance: 222 miles
2020 Porsche Taycan Turbo S: 209 miles
2020 Polestar 2: 190 miles
2020 Audi e-tron Sportback: 220 miles
2020 Kia Niro EV: 180 miles
2021 Porsche Taycan 4S: 170 miles
The Chevy Bolt had battery fires with plenty of news coverage on those.
Another version
Audi Etron 206 miles
Nissan Leaf Eplus 208 miles
Jaguar Ipace 223
Kia ENiro 255
Tesla Model 3 LR 270
H_ll, there are many places in the USA, Canada and Mexico where distances are far longer than EV capability, especially if a round trip is necessary before recharge. Just using an EV in one direction is impossible if the EVs utilize Air Conditioning at all to keep passengers comfortable. Trust me, in the American deserts, A/C is key in vehicles that are not built to run with open windows.
Texas, Arizona, Oregon, Nevada, Utah, Colorado are just a few of the states with long distances between civilized locations.
e.g. following the Pony Express route is impossible for EVs, except for a few short portions of the route near big towns.
Perhaps some of these states can install pedal powered charging stations in remote locations for EVs running low.
Even in the more populated USA East, real travel between two locations is impossible with EVs. Unless one wants to spend precious time waiting in lines for slow charging stations for their weekends and holidays.
Late 1800s EV was becoming popular, in a very limited market, and then a revolution ….
Henry introduced his Model T Ford with a gasoline fuelled internal combustion engine and refuelled from a tin can or three on long drives away from cities.
EV revolution, and in Australia vast reserves of oil and gas, shale oil, coal that could be converted into liquid fuel remain locked away, even deposits of uranium are locked away, by order the UN – Agenda 21 Sustainability and other economic vandalism getting around sovereignty of nations by applying pressure globally.
A lot of comments below on how these negatives are BS
But the early adopters are basically free riders, sure there is no problem charging your car at home overnight because there are so few.
As the numbers increase, there will have to be massive increases in public charging stations and the grid in every neighborhood everywhere will need massive upgrading, all the way back to the power generation.
When there are no more ICE vehicles you will see exponential increases in taxes and fees on your “cheap to operate” EV which will drive operating costs through the roof
And this does not even touch on what is going to happen to the cost of electricity if the idiotic renewable craze continues.
So yes, crow about how cheap your ev appears to be and take advantage of it
Because it’s not going to last
James May (Grand Tour, Top Gear, DriveTribe on YouTube) recently reported his new Tesla had locked him out. Drive batteries were at full charge, but a “utility/accessory” battery that handles the door locks apparently runs down if the car is not driven.
Perhaps the number one reason, or a summary of all 20, should be called market saturation? This is often the death stroke for any consumer item, when all the people who might want to buy one have done so, or given up o n the idea due to high cost.
My bet would be that half the companies that have committed to building only electric vehicles will quietly fail in the commitment, and the other half will fail and/or be bought out by those that continue building I.C. engines. We may see a great number of new hybrid vehicles, as we should, but get your Teslas now, folks, they may never be cheaper.
I wonder what might happen to all the venture capital that hopes to make the entire transportation industry reliant on electrical power available only through a price fixing cartel?
James May also loves his Tesla.
Thumb down is not love or like.
It’s symbolism for sending the tesla to hades.
Guess that by 2035, Californians will be purchasing their cars in Nevada.
And still moving to Greater Idaho.
Since EVs have fewer parts, it’s going to take a lot of new engineering to get cars and trucks to break at 130k miles in order to sustain the auto industry. But I know Chrysler, GM, Fiat, Nissan, and Renault are up to the job.
Fewer parts in any EV is sophistry.
Every circuit board in an EV is composed of hundreds to thousands of parts.
Circuit boards are easily damaged by vibration, high temperatures, dirt, short circuiting contaminants, magnetic fields, defective parts, poor assembly…
Alarmists love to include every screw and bolt contained in a ICE in their total parts count, yet ignore all subcomponents in their chosen EVs.
I hope california has a sensible governor who has a delivered a reliable power grid otherwise by 2035 as there will be a lot of blocked highways with EVs needing a charge and no means of removing them as there will be no ICE tow trucks
With all of our genius politicians regulating the end of the ICEVs over the next 5-10 years, let’s take a look at whether or not the grid can handle 100% of the transportation sector being grid-powered.
According to the EIA, in 2019 the US grid delivered 12.8QBTU. The transportation sector consumed 28.2QBTU. Internal combustion engines are very inefficient, so if we assume 30% of the energy makes it to the wheels, this equates to 8.5QBTU. BEVs are more efficient than ICEVs, but they are still not perfect. If we assume 70% of the grid power makes it to the wheels, then we need to deliver 12.1QBTU through the grid to power an all BEV equivalent fleet of vehicles. It quickly becomes apparent that the size of the grid needs to double to support moving from ICEVs to BEVs.
The world has been struggling to increase the share of “green energy” (GE) on the current grid. If the grid needs to double in capacity, this will dilute GE progress by 50%. Since most people will charge their vehicles overnight, solar will be out of the picture. This means we will have a fleet of coal and natural-gas-powered BEVs. This is an archetype of stupidity.
It gets even worse when we factor in the environmental damage from rare metal mining, the lack of charging options for city and apartment dwellers, lack of charging stations along highways, battery life degradation from high-temperature operation and fast charging, range degradation over recharge cycles and depth of discharge, battery recycling, etc. BEVs are not good for the environment, they will increase costs and make transportation less reliable.
It would make far more sense to use excess nuclear capacity and all “green energy” to make CO2-neutral gasoline from seawater. The US Navy, MIT and others have demonstrated the chemical process. The Navy estimates they can make gasoline (or jet fuel) for $3/gallon using seawater. They have a plan to use excess power from aircraft carrier reactors to make jet fuel for fighter jets. This would reduce resupply requirements during battle.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2014/4/7/1290380/-Navy-lab-makes-gasoline-from-seawater-as-low-as-3-per-gallon
This man-made fuel could augment the fuel stream. We already have the infrastructure to transport, store, distribute and dispense liquid fuels. We already have 120+ years of engineering invested in ICEVs. There are over 3M gas pumps in the US. Refilling is easy. Liquid fuels are the perfect energy storage system. They provide very high energy density and don’t degrade except over long periods of time.
I keep hearing promises of new battery technology, but batteries will never be better than liquid fuels. People seem to forget the basic laws of physics when it comes to charging. A 100kWh battery will take over 27 hours to charge on a 120V/30A circuit and 8 hours to charge on a 240V/50A circuit. There is no battery technology that can change this. We can dedicate a 100A circuit to charging and cut this to over 4 hours, but now we are consuming half of the power of the average home. Claims of charging 80% in 15 minutes can only be done with an industrial power service. And battery life takes a big hit for a rapid charge.
In comparison, BEVs make little sense vs. ICEVs. I can’t predict when, but I suspect at some point they will be viewed as the foolish fads they are. Historically, we have already had a Dark Age. Our current time will be known as the Delusional Age.
I work from home and ride a bike a lot to get away from sitting. I am ordering my 4th e-bike.
When temps dropped to the teens my range was terrible on a charge,
With nights in the 60’s now my range is 75% more than winter cold distance.
The problem I see is car range in the winter is very low, window defrosting and heat will hurt range. Summer A/C also will hurt range. Lastly wind hurts e-bike ranges as it will with cars.
Our daughter has a PhD Electrical Engineering Power Systems. Also a pilot. She has had no thoughts of her buying e-car..
This is a replacement of Democracy by a new system – “Programmed Future”, in wchich a majority in 2035 has nothing to say, because all decisions were preplanned in 2020.
“he announced on September 23, 2020 an executive order to ban the sale of gas-powered vehicles by 2035”