Death Valley. Copyright 2016 Charles Rotter

Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #452

The Week That Was: 2021-04-24 (April 24, 2021)
Brought to You by SEPP (
The Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: “We’ve arranged a global civilization in which most crucial elements . . . profoundly depend on science and technology. We have also arranged things so that almost no one understands science and technology. This is a prescription for disaster.”

“Pseudoscience differs from erroneous science. Science thrives on errors, cutting them away one by one. False conclusions are drawn all the time, but they are drawn tentatively. Hypotheses are framed so they are capable of being disproved… Science gropes and staggers toward understanding.”Carl Sagan [H/t Roger Klein]

Number of the Week: – 13


By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

The Greenhouse Effect: Last week TWTW presented an essay by Richard Lindzen, an accomplished atmospheric physicist, and William Happer, a distinguished physicist specializing in Atomic, Molecular and Optical (AMO) Physics, which includes research into matter-matter and light-matter interactions (electromagnetic radiation-matter interactions). Over 150 years ago, John Tyndall recognized that it is the interactions between outgoing infrared radiation (electromagnetic radiation) and certain gases that slow the loss of heat, keeping the land masses from deeply freezing at night. The dominant greenhouse gas is water vapor, covering a broad range of wavelengths, or frequencies, in the infrared spectrum. Its effectiveness crashes when water vapor freezes out in the tropopause, approximately 60,000 feet (18,000 meters) at the equator and roughly 20,000 feet (6,000 meters) at the poles

Carbon dioxide (CO2) covers only a small range of wavelengths (or frequencies) but is highly effective in that small range of wavelengths. Once all infrared radiation in those narrow ranges is being blocked (delayed), the range of wavelengths (or frequencies) is said to be saturated. Expanding saturated ranges to neighboring wavelengths (or frequencies) requires significantly more carbon dioxide. The wavelengths (or frequencies), for which CO2 is an effective greenhouse gas were saturated well before humans began adding CO2 to the atmosphere. Human emissions of CO2 have little effect on temperatures according to Lindzen and Happer. However, their work and that of others is being ignored by those who wish to create fear of dangerous warming from carbon dioxide. As Lindzen and Happer wrote:

“We are both scientists who can attest that the research literature does not support the claim of a climate emergency. Nor will there be one. None of the lurid predictions — dangerously accelerating sea-level rise, increasingly extreme weather, more deadly forest fires, unprecedented warming, etc. — are any more accurate than the fire-and-brimstone sermons used to stoke fanaticism in medieval crusaders.

“No scientist familiar with radiation transfer denies that more carbon dioxide is likely to cause some surface warming. But the warming would be small and benign. In fact, history shows that warmings of a few degrees Celsius — which extended growing seasons — have been good for humanity.” [Boldface added]

“More carbon dioxide will certainly increase the productivity of agriculture and forestry. Over the past century, the earth has already become noticeably greener as a result of the modest increase of CO2, from about 0.03 percent to 0.04 percent of atmospheric molecules. More CO2 has made a significant contribution to the increased crop yields of the past 50 years, as well. The benefits to plants of more CO2 are documented in hundreds of scientific studies.”

“Americans should not be stampeded into a disastrous climate crusade.”

Global climate modelers claim they take radiation transfer into account. However, the results of their work show that they do not do so correctly. Roy Spencer demonstrates that global ocean temperatures are warming at about 50% of the rate of climate model projections. More importantly for the greenhouse effect, climate models predict atmosphere warming 2.5 to 3 times that which is actually occurring. These errors would be unacceptable in a high school physics course, but they are acceptable to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); whose followers include the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) made up of 13 federal agencies. As Spencer writes:

“A related issue is how much the deep oceans are warming. As I have mentioned before, the (inarguable) energy imbalance associated with deep ocean warming in recent decades is only about 1 part (less than 1 Watt per sq. m) in 300 of the natural energy flows in the climate system.

“This is a very tiny energy imbalance in the climate system. We know NONE of the natural energy flows to that level of accuracy.

“What that means is that global warming could be mostly natural, and we would not even know it.

“I’m not claiming that is the case. I am merely pointing out the level of faith that is involved in the adjustments made to climate models, which necessarily produce warming due to increasing CO2 because those models simply assume that there is no other source of warming.

“Yes, more CO2 must produce some warming. But the amount of warming makes all the difference to global energy policies.

“Seldom is the public ever informed of these glaring discrepancies between basic science and what politicians and pop-scientists tell us.

“Why does it matter?

“It matters because there is no Climate Crisis. There is no Climate Emergency.

“Yes, irregular warming is occurring. Yes, it is at least partly due to human greenhouse gas emissions. But seldom are the benefits of a somewhat warmer climate system mentioned, or the benefits of more CO2 in the atmosphere (which is required for life on Earth to exist).

“But if we waste trillions of dollars (that’s just here in the U.S. — meanwhile, China will always do what is in the best interests of China) then that is trillions of dollars not available for the real necessities of life.

“Prosperity will suffer, and for no good reason.”

Others familiar with radiation transfer agree that energy imbalance is so tiny that it cannot be pinned down. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.


Keeping the Dragon: In his book, The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark, Carl Sagan explains the scientific method to the general public. The scientific method requires skeptical, critical thinking and rigorous testing of concepts against physical evidence. He develops the amusing concept of having a fire-breathing dragon in his garage. A visitor cannot see it because it is invisible, it does not leave footprints because it floats, and so on. The existence of the dragon cannot be tested by using physical evidence. The same is true of the claim that carbon dioxide is causing dangerous warming. The advocates of the claim do not test it against the correct physical evidence.

Sagan explains what he calls a “baloney detection kit” for separating what he calls “pseudoscience” from actual science. The kit involves testing concepts against physical evidence, confirmation of the facts and review of all points of view on the concept. [Similar to Richard Feynman requiring testing a hypothesis against all the physical evidence.] Sagan’s kit also includes logical fallacies that need to be avoided when presenting a hypothesis. He emphasizes the importance of skeptical thinking.

Politically, Sagan was considered to be a liberal. It is ironic that many politically liberal people accuse those who challenge the claims of dangerous carbon dioxide-caused global warming as being skeptics – precisely what Sagan advocated. See links under Seeking a Common Ground.


Feeding the Dragon: President Joe Biden announced an expensive, extensive revamping of the American economy, particularly in energy, to “fight global warming” from carbon dioxide. Warming and cooling of the planet is natural, and evidence shows the human contribution to increasing the greenhouse effect is slight, perhaps not even clearly measurable at this time. Thus, the fight appears to be against the invisible dragon in the garage.

Power expert Donn Dears has two essays on the extent of the problem being created by Biden’s proclamations, one on nuclear power and the second on coal, natural gas, and supply of energy. Roger Pielke Jr. calculates that: “By Earth Day 2022 the US will have needed to close more than 100 power plants that were producing electricity in January 2021 in order to be close to the trajectory set forth by the new emissions targets.” TWTW speculates that President Biden will do a Jim Hansen who predicted great sea level rise. When it was not occurring as predicted, he claimed it will all come at the end of the 21st century.

Patrick Michaels discusses some of the legal issues the Biden plan faces. Others bring up similar problems with Biden’s plan. Perhaps the most bizarre will be the dance the BASIC countries (Brazil, South Africa, India, and China) are taking with Biden’s climate envoy, John Kerry.

Over the past thirty years, South Asia has emerged from extreme poverty, something that few in Washington understand. An important part of this emergence is the use of fossil fuels. Leaders of these countries have every reason to suspect that the UN claims of dangerous global warming are nothing but an effort by neo-colonialists to suppress them. Note that the sharp departure between model forecasts of what is occurring in the atmosphere and what is being actually measured started in the mid-1990s, with model forecasts of warming far exceeding actual measurements.

Brazil is now a leading competitor with the US in bulk agriculture exports, such as maize (corn) and soybeans, despite the USGCRP declaring warming will significantly damage agriculture in the US. The leaders of all these countries appear to be more attuned to the real needs of their publics than Washington is attuned to the real needs of Americans. Washington is focused on fighting dragons. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Change in US Administrations, Expanding the Orthodoxy, and Litigation Issues


How Big? Leading up to the Biden meeting on climate, it appeared that the leaders of many Western Countries were in a contest on who would make the biggest sacrifices. Of course, the leaders are far too important and too busy to make personal sacrifices, so the sacrifices would fall on the general population. Once, such a contest would be labeled masculine arrogance. Now it includes many women, so can it be labeled as self-righteous arrogance? See links under Questioning Green Elsewhere, Energy Issues – Non-US, and Energy Issues – Australia,


Why? In 1973, President Biden started his first term in the Senate. Annually, large protests against the war in Vietnam occurred in Washington. That year the Arab Oil Embargo began, causing great disruption to the economy. Further, the Nixon price controls remained on oil and natural gas. During cold weather, thousands of people were thrown out of work from the lack of natural gas. Congress passed laws forbidding power plants from using oil or natural gas exclusively.

In 1977, President Carter declared the energy crisis is the moral equivalent of war. He advocated making the most of the country’s abundant resources of coal, as well as conservation and use of renewables. The 1970s was a period of stagflation (economic stagnation, and high inflation simultaneously). Matt Ridley discusses the problems of government control of the economy by rationing and price control.

When Biden was Vice President during the Obama administration, the government promoted great spending on “shovel-ready” jobs. The net result was a growth rate coming out of a recession of less than 2% — called the great recession. During the Trump administration the economy boomed, the US became energy independent, exporting more oil and gas than it imported. During the Obama administration, small and mid-sized oil and gas companies developed the combination of hydraulic fracturing and directional drilling to solve the problem of extracting oil and gas from dense shale. The energy crisis was over.

Now, President Biden wishes to disrupt the energy industry and the economy to fight a war on dragons – mild or non-existent CO2-caused global warming? Since the analogy of war is frequently used, a better analogy would be President Johnson sending hundreds of thousands of ground troops to Vietnam without a strategic plan. When the Johnson administration was leaving, Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara asked for a report, essentially asking the question “How did we get into this mess?”

The result was the Pentagon Papers, strangely suppressed by President Nixon. Although the report is claimed to be a history of US involvement in Vietnam, what it shows to the skeptical reader is the lack of critical thinking, skeptical questioning, during the Johnson administration in deploying massive units of ground troops. Young political analysts in the White House were developing bombing plans for North Vietnam! In short, the US committed great resources to fight an enemy it did not understand, under poor leadership at the top, using methods that were ineffective. Unfortunately, the Biden climate plan has similar weaknesses. See links under Science, Policy, and Evidence and Article # 2.


Solar Cycles: We do not fully understand the sun and the extent it influences the globe’s climate. John Maunder writes:

“One challenge for researchers working to predict the Sun’s activities is that scientists don’t yet completely understand the inner workings of our star. Plus, some factors that play out deep inside the Sun cannot be measured directly. They have to be estimated from measurements of related phenomena on the solar surface, like sunspots.”

In November, scientists at the US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) published a paper predicting the Sunspot Cycle that started that fall could be one of the strongest since about 1755. They did so by using the 22-year (Hale) magnetic cycle rather than the more customary 11-year sunspot cycle. Their prediction of a strong 22-year cycle is in contrast with most predictions of a weak 11-year sunspot cycle.

Separately, three independent scientists, including Willie Soon and David Legates, directors of SEPP, applied machine learning algorithms and analyses to the World Data Center’s newly constructed annual sunspot time series (1700–2019; Version 2.0). They found that the variability in the approximate 11-year Sunspot Cycle is closely connected with a 120-year oscillatory magnetic activity variation. They forecast an extended solar minimum to about 2050.

From this, we see two distinctly separate hypotheses which the Sun will test. It is an exciting time for those who follow the sun. See links under Science: Is the Sun Rising? and Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?



14th ICCC Rescheduled: The 14th International Conference on Climate Change presented by The Heartland Institute has been rescheduled to October 15 to 17, 2021, at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas. See




SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving, following these criteria:

  • The nominee has advanced, or proposes to advance, significant expansion of governmental power, regulation, or control over the public or significant sections of the general economy.
  • The nominee does so by declaring such measures are necessary to protect public health, welfare, or the environment.
  • The nominee declares that physical science supports such measures.
  • The physical science supporting the measures is flimsy at best, and possibly non-existent.

The past recipients, Lisa Jackson, Barrack Obama, John Kerry, Ernest Moniz, Michael Mann, Christiana Figueres, Jerry Brown, AOC, and Neil Ferguson are not eligible. Generally, the committee that makes the selection prefers a candidate with a national or international presence. The voting will close on July 31. Please send your nominee and a brief reason why the person is qualified for the honor to Thank you. For a list of past recipients and their accomplishments in earning this honor see


Number of the Week: 13. Joseph D’Aleo of WeatherBell Analytics and ICECAP has updated his list of 13 common claims about the climate that have been rebutted based on credible, relevant physical evidence. The list links to reviews by recognized experts in the specific field. The list includes heat waves, hurricanes, tornadoes, droughts and floods, wildfires, etc. The list of common claims, Bandwagon Science, based on little or no direct physical evidence, is astonishing and usually wrong. Unfortunately, it influences government policies. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.


Science: Is the Sun Rising?

Does Machine Learning reconstruct missing sunspots and forecast a new solar minimum?

By V.M. Velasco Herrera, W. Soon, and D.R. Legates, Advances in Space Research. Mar 30, 2021

New sunspot cycle could be one of the strongest on record, new research predicts

Scientists use an extended, 22-year solar cycle to make the forecast

Press Release, NCAR, Dec 7, 2020

Link to paper: Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot Number: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude

By Scott W. McIntosh, et al. Solar Physics, Nov 24, 2020

Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?

Solar Activity and the next Maunder Minimum

By John Maunder, Sun Live, Apr 21, 2021 [H/t GWPF]

Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science

Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013


Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts

Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014


Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels

By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019

Download with no charge:

Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming

The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015

Download with no charge:

Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate

S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008

Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data

By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019

Challenging the Orthodoxy

Climate ‘Emergency’? Not So Fast

By Richard Lindzen and William Happer, National Review, Apr 16, 2021 [H/t Paul Redfern]

An Earth Day Reminder: “Global Warming” is Only ~50% of What Models Predict

By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Apr 22, 2021

Climate Claim Rebuttals Updated

By Joseph D’Aleo, ICECAP, Apr 18, 2021

America! We Have a Problem – The Green Nightmare – Part 1 the Nuclear Problem.

By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Apr 20, 2021

America! We Have a Problem – The Green Nightmare – Part 2: The Coal, Natural Gas and Supply Problems

By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Apr 23, 2021

Tracking Progress Towards President Biden’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Target

President Biden has announced ambitious goals for climate policy, here is how we can track policy progress on a monthly basis

By Roger Pielke Jr. The Honest Broker, Apr 22, 2021

The Latest US CO2 Fantasy

By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, Apr 21, 2021

Economy-destroying climate plans target nonexistent ‘crisis’

By James Taylor, Washington Times, Apr 21, 2021

Hansen’s 1988 global-warming prediction was thrice observation

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, WUWT, Apr 20, 2021

Defending the Orthodoxy

Climate change indicators and impacts worsened in 2020

Press Release, UN World Meteorological Organization, Apr 19, 2021 [H/t WUWT]

Link to report: State of the Global Climate 2020 (WMO-No. 1264)

By Staff, WMOR, 2021

[SEPP Comment: Many of the claims have been refuted]

As global CO2 emissions rise, UK sets new targets

By Staff, Financial Times, Via GWPF, Apr 20, 2021

[SEPP Comment: Great graph showing how ineffective the UNFCCC is. We are fighting a war against an enemy we don’t understand, with incompetent leaders employing ineffective methods.]

Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science

10 NSF-funded studies that show the challenges and complexities of climate change

By Staff, NSF, Apr 20, 2021

[SEPP Comment: Not one addresses the central problems.  Most simply assume ‘climate change’ and predict consequences. The models fail to describe the changing greenhouse effect in the atmosphere.]

Climate change could cost global economy $23T by 2050

By Niv Elis, The Hill, Apr 22, 2021

Link to report: The economics of climate change

Climate change poses the biggest long-term risk to the global economy. No action is not an option.

By Staff, Swiss Re, Apr 22, 2021

What was the Medieval warm period?

By Frédérik Saltré and Corey J. A. Bradshaw, The Conversation, Apr 20, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

“Despite the uncertainties, the climate characteristics of the Medieval warm period make it an irrelevant analog for the magnitude of climate change we are facing.”

[SEPP Comment: Understanding natural climate change is vital to estimating how little or much adding CO2 may change climate. This article dismisses natural change with the hockey-stick, a fabrication.]

Questioning the Orthodoxy

Science News vs. Science

By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Apr 21, 2021

Biden To Heal The Planet Again

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Apr 21, 2021

[SEPP Comment: Humanity is prospering (prior to COVID), therefore something must be wrong with the planet.]

Easy if only it weren’t so hard

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 21, 2021

“As we’ve said before, if things are as bad as the most alarmed of the alarmists say, we might have to bite this bullet or possibly grenade and do it regardless. But it’s not correct to say well, there could be an issue, why take chances, when the cost of enacting the extremists’, proposals is itself enormous, and indeed disastrous.”

Column: U.S. net zero goal implies energy system transformation

By John Kemp, Reuters, Apr 21, 2021

Climate-Alarmist Junk Science and the Base-Line Fallacy

By Wen Wryte, American Thinker, Apr 19, 2021

Scientists beginning to say

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 21, 2021

[SEPP Comment: Questioning the absurd IPCC RCP8.5 storyline.]

Resourceful Earth Day (celebrate freedom, innovation)

By Pierre Desrochers and Jasmin Guénette, Master Resource, April 22, 2021

After Paris!

At Earth Day Climate Summit, Biden Pushes for Sharp Cut to Greenhouse-Gas Emissions

Some countries call on rich nations to shoulder more responsibility

By Andrew Restuccia and Timothy Puko, WSJ, Apr 22, 2021

“President Xi Jinping, who attended the summit virtually, said China will reduce coal consumption starting in 2026.”

[SEPP Comment: After the 2024 US elections. If China does not cut emissions will the US declare war?]

Change in US Administrations

Biden And Kerry Get Humiliated On Earth Day, But Are Too Dumb To Realize It

By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Apr 22, 2021

Biden announces picks to lead oceans, lands agencies

By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Apr 22, 2021

Biden says US will work with other countries on climate innovation

By Rachel Frazin, and Morgan Chalfant, The Hill, Apr 23, 2021

Five takeaways from Biden’s climate summit

By Zack Budryk, Rachel Frazin and Laura Kelly, The Hill, Apr 22, 2021

Joe Biden takes risks with his climate ‘summit’

By Staff, The Washington Times, Via GWPF, Apr 20, 2021

Problems in the Orthodoxy

China’s strange endorsement of ‘net zero’

The Chinese path to supposed decarbonization starts with a lot more coal

By Duggan Flanakin, WUWT, Apr 24, 2021

Don’t tell China: US coal production set to rise, in blow to Biden’s climate goals

By Staff, S&P Global; E&E News, Via GWPF, Apr 21, 2021

China says climate onus on US in John Kerry talks

The US envoy and Chinese Vice-Premier Han Zheng held virtual talks during the former’s trip to Shanghai

Kerry is the first official from the current administration to visit China, signaling hopes that the two powers can work together on the global challenge

By Staff, Agence France-Presse, Apr 17, 2021

For China, a summit to neutralize criticism, not carbon

By Jianli Yang and Aaron Rhodes, The Hill, Apr 22, 2021

“The free world will have abdicated its moral responsibility, and failed to protect vulnerable groups and societies, if it appeases China in return for meaningless environmental promises.”

EXCLUSIVE India may build new coal plants due to low cost despite climate change

By Sudarshan Varadhan, Reuters, Apr 19, 2021

Seeking a Common Ground

Carl Sagan’s 10th book, The Demon-Haunted World,…

Reviewed by Chauncey Mabe Fort Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel, The Orlando Sentinel, Apr 14, 1996

History Confirms Democrat’s 1988 Senate Global Warming Hearing Got Everything Wrong from Start to Finish

By Larry Hamlin, WUWT, Apr 22, 2021

Science, Policy, and Evidence

Britain is in danger of repeating its post-war mistakes

By Matt Ridley, The Rational Optimist, Apr 17, 2021

KLEIN: The ‘Party Of Science’ Can’t Seem To Bring Itself To Endorse Vaccines

By Roger Klein, MD, Daily Caller, Apr 21, 2021 [H/t Heartland Weekly]

Sweden’s goal was to live with the Covid virus rather than try to suppress it, and this new book sets out its success

By Rob Lyons, RT, Apr 21, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science

Elevated CO2 Decreases the Efficiency of Cucumber Mosaic Virus Infection

Guo, H., Ge, P., Tong, J., Zhang, Y., Peng, X., Zhao, Z., Ge, F. and Sun, Y. 2021. Elevated carbon dioxide levels decreases Cucumber Mosaic Virus accumulation in correlation with greater accumulation of rgs-CaM, an inhibitor of a viral suppressor of RNAi. Plants 10, 59, Apr 23, 2021

CO2-Induced Change in Plant Biochemistry Alter Aphid Performance

Moreno-Delafuente, A., Morales, I., Garzo, E., Fereres, A., Viñuela, E. and Medina, P. 2021. Changes in melon plant phytochemistry impair Aphis gossypii growth and weight under elevated CO2. Scientific Reports 11: 2186, Apr 21, 2021

“And so it is that in the future, under rising levels of atmospheric CO2, the melon will be the winner in this ongoing plant-insect battle, experiencing an overall reduction in damages caused by this herbivore pest thanks to CO2-induced changes in plant biochemistry.”

Elevated CO2 Improves Tomato Growth Under Low Light Conditions

Huber, B.M., Louws, F.J. and Hernández, R. 2021. Impact of different daily light integrals and carbon dioxide concentrations on the growth, morphology, and production efficiency of tomato seedlings. Frontiers in Plant Science 12: 615853, doi: 10.3389/fpls.2021.615853.

Model Issues

The Failure of Imperial College Modeling Is Far Worse than We Knew

By Phillip Magness, American Institute for Economic Research, Apr 22, 2021

[SEPP Comment: According to Worldometers, on April 22, the deaths per million population in the USA stood at 1754, UK at 1785, Sweden 1368. Hungary 2697, and so on. Political lock downs appear to have little influence on death rates. China reports 3 deaths per million, the same for at least six months. Where does the UN World Health Organization send teams to study the virus? China. This is similar to the UN IPCC blaming the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide causing global warming but focusing on surface temperature trends rather than atmospheric trends, where the greenhouse effect occurs. ]

No quick fix for climate change

Press Release by University of Bergen, Apr 20, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

Link to paper: The response of terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling under different aerosol-based radiation management geoengineering

By Hanna Lee, et al. Earth System Dynamics, Mar 11, 2021

Study finds humans are directly influencing wind and weather over North Atlantic

Press Release, University of Miami, Apr 19, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

Link to paper: NAO predictability from external forcing in the late 20th century

By Jeremy M. Klavans, Nature, Climate and Atmospheric Science, Mar 25, 2021

[SEPP Comment: Of the pack, this one predicted what occurred?]

Changing Weather

New report reviews the state of extreme weather in 2020

Press Release, Global Warming Policy Foundation, Apr 21, 2021

Link to report: Extreme Weather in 2020

By Ralph Alexander, GWPF, April 2021

Brutal 2020/21 Northern Hemisphere Winter One For Record Books…And Continues Into Late April!

By Allan M.R. MacRae, No Tricks Zone, Apr 21, 2021

Global Warming? Devastating Frost Impacts 2021 French Wine Grapes

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Apr 20, 2021

[SEPP Comment: Great photo of burning bougies to protect the vines. Think of the “carbon pollution!”]

No Trend In Colorado Snowpack

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Apr 23, 2021

March In Canada, Alaska and Greta Thunberg’s Sweden Has Seen No Warming In Decades!

By Kirye and Pierre Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 23, 2021

Changing Seas

Marine life is fleeing the equator to cooler waters. History tells us this could trigger a mass extinction event

By Anthony Richardson, The University of Queensland; Chhaya Chaudhary, University of Auckland; David Schoeman, University of the Sunshine Coast, and Mark John Costello, University of Auckland, The Conversation, Apr 7, 2021 [H/t WUWT]

“At the end of the Permian geological period about 252 million years ago, global temperatures warmed by 10℃ over 30,000-60,000 years as a result of greenhouse gas emissions from volcano eruptions in Siberia.

“A 2020 study of the fossils from that time shows the pronounced peak in biodiversity at the equator flattened and spread. During this mammoth rearranging of global biodiversity, 90% of all marine species were killed.”

[SEPP Comment: There has been a great deal of speculation, but the eruption of the Siberian Traps probably released massive amounts of sulfur dioxide, hydrogen sulfide, and hydrogen halides, not conducive to life. See,also%20be%20emitted%20from%20volcanoes.]

Northern Red Sea corals live close to the threshold of resistance to cold temperatures

Though these corals can tolerate very high temperatures, a new study reveals that even a slight cold spell can cause bleaching

Press Release, Bar-Ilan University, Apr 19, 2021 [H/t WUWT]

However, Bellworthy and Fine’s cold stressed corals did not die and recovered once water temperatures returned to normal. Experimental corals were maintained at normal temperatures and then underwent a second test – an anomalously hot summer. “It was an important discovery for us to understand that even those individuals that suffered the cold winter stress, still did not bleach at the high temperatures,” says Bellworthy.

Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

Antarctic rainfall could increase through 2100

By Staff Writers, Washington DC (SPX), Apr 16, 2021

Link to paper: Present and Future of Rainfall in Antarctica

By E. Vignon, et al. submitted to Geophysical Research Letters, Accessed Apr 19, 2021

[SEPP Comment: Relies on UN IPCC CMIP6 scenarios, or dragon science.]

The glacier of greatest concern

By Mike Lucibella, NSF, Apr 21, 2021

“Antarctica’s massive Thwaites Glacier is melting because of climate change, and a collapse of the glacier could raise sea levels significantly around the world.”

[SEPP Comment: As explained in last week’s TWTW, satellite measurements place the net ice change in Antarctica at about zero. To claim Thwaites Glacier in Western Antarctica is melting from climate change is propaganda.]

The anatomy of past abrupt warmings recorded in Greenland ice

By E. Capron, et al. Nature Communications, Apr 18, 2021 [H/t WUWT]

From abstract: “Our results hint that during these abrupt events, it may not be possible to infer statistically-robust leads and lags between the different components of the climate system because of their tight coupling.”

Earth Day 2021: celebrate abundant sea ice habitat for polar bear feeding and mating

By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Apr 22, 2021

[SEPP Comment: Photo of a bear enjoying lunch.]

Changing Earth

42,000 Years Ago A Massive Geomagnetic Shift Plunged A Warm Earth Into An Ice Age…But CO₂ Didn’t Budge

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Apr 22, 2021

Link to one paper: A global environmental crisis 42,000 years ago

By Alan Cooper, et al. AAAS Science, Feb 19, 2021

From the abstract: We find that geomagnetic field minima ~42 ka, in combination with Grand Solar Minima, caused substantial changes in atmospheric ozone concentration and circulation,…”

[SEPP Comment: No mention of the Svensmark hypothesis in AAAS Science!]

Climate has shifted the axis of the Earth

Press Release by American Geophysical Union, Apr 23, 2021

Link to paper: Polar Drift in the 1990s Explained by Terrestrial Water Storage Changes

By S. Deng, et al. Geophysical Research Letters, Mar 22, 2021

[SEPP Comment: Given that the earth has a molten core, it is highly questionable to state the polar drift is caused by water storage. Is the headline of the press release is a joke?]

Acidic Waters

Satellites highlight a 30-year rise in ocean acidification

By Staff Writers, Paris (ESA), Apr 22, 2021

Link to paper: OceanSODA-ETHZ: a global gridded data set of the surface ocean carbonate system for seasonal to decadal studies of ocean acidification

By Luke Gregor and Nicolas Gruber, Environmental Physics, Earth System Science Data, Mar 2, 2021

[SEPP Comment: At the end of a long abstract: “Concretely, we find for the period 1990 through 2018 global mean trends of 8.6 ± 0.1 µmol kg−1 per decade for DIC, −0.016 ± 0.000 per decade for pH, 16.5 ± 0.1 µatm per decade for pCO2, and −0.07 ± 0.00 per decade for Ω.” An insignificant decline in ocean alkalinity.]

Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine

By the gardens of Bangladesh

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 21, 2021

Lowering Standards

Liar Liar, Media Pants on Fire

By Brian C. Joondeph, American Thinker, Apr 23, 2021

Wall Street Journal hypes Biden’s climate alarmist absurd emissions reductions propaganda schemes

By Larry Hamlin, WUWT, Apr 23, 2021

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?

The Sustainability Imperative

A collection of past articles, The Hill, Accessed Apr 23, 2021

Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?

Playing Fast and Loose with Numbers

By Joakim Book, American Institute for Economic Research, Apr 22, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

[SEPP Comment: Explaining common exaggerations found in climate journalism and too many government entities.]

CO2 emissions set to surge, IEA warns

By Staff, AFP, Apr 20, 2021

Climate scientists: concept of net zero is a dangerous trap

By James Dyke, University of Exeter; Robert Watson, University of East Anglia, and Wolfgang Knorr, Lund University, The Conversation, Via WUWT, Apr 23, 2021

[SEPP Comment: Failing to recognize the lack of physical evidence supporting their views, the authors demand greater sacrifices and use nonsense mitigation curves from the IPCC]

Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.

The New Climate Fraud Normal

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Apr 22, 2021

[SEPP Comment: NOAA fiddling with the books, again.]

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda

The Left’s Orwellian Perversion of Language

By Lauri B. Regan, American Thinker, Apr 23, 2021

“Climate Emergency” is this years new Black in FearSpeak

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Apr 17, 2021

NASA Pushes Propaganda For Kids: Casts Greenhouse Gases As Superheroes That ‘Turn Into Tiny Heaters’

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Apr 19, 2021

[SEPP Comment: The NASA propaganda is misleading. Greenhouse gases slow the nighttime cooling of the earth, preventing vegetation from freezing. A large stone or brick fireplace keeping a house warm after the fire has gone out may be a better analogy than a greenhouse.]

Granholm announces goal to make hydrogen power, EV batteries more affordable

By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Apr 23, 2021

This is our generation’s moonshot,” Granholm said. “Less than a decade after President Kennedy declared our nation’s choice to go to the moon, we planted an American flag on that cratered surface, and today we choose to solve the climate crisis.”

[SEPP Comment: The moon shot was based on physics and constant testing of concepts. This “crisis” is based on ignoring the proper physics and failing to test concepts.]

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children

NYC Pol Uses Phony Cancer Scare & ‘Children’ To Ban Glyphosate In Parks

By Josh Bloom, ACSH, Apr 15, 2021

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda

‘The Earth Is On Fire And We’re All Going To Die Soon’: Dem Rep Pleads With Thunberg For Advice For Her Panicked 9-Year-Old Daughter

By Hank Berrien, Daily Wire, Apr 23, 2021

[SEPP Comment: Mature, critical thinking in Congress?]

Expanding the Orthodoxy

Pentagon chief: Climate crisis ‘existential’ threat to US national security

By Ellen Mitchell, The Hill, Apr 22, 2021

Intelligence director Haines says climate change ‘at the center’ of national security

By Mychael Schenell, The Hill Apr 22, 2021

Treasury creates hub to fight climate change through finance

By Sylvan Lane, The Hill, Apr 19, 2021

Yellen touts ‘whole-of-economy’ plan to fight climate change

By Sylvan Lane, The Hill, Apr 21, 2021

Army’s New Solar Farm [UK]

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 17, 2021

“It is therefore hardly surprising that very few solar farms are being built to supply the grid. The few that are rely on battery storage to tap into peak pricing.”

France approves ‘ecocide’ offence to punish environmental damage

By AFP Staff Writers, Paris (AFP), April 17, 2021

“Transgressors will be liable to up to 10 years in prison and a fine of 4.5 million euros ($5.4 million).”

Next Doomsday “Crisis”: GLOBAL WATER SHORTAGE…Meat Lockdown Needed, Potsdam Scientist Suggests

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 20, 2021

Questioning European Green

Telegraph Wakes Up To The Cost Of Climate Agenda

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 22, 2021

Boris’s Net Zero gamble risks fuelling a new Brexit-style revolt against the elite

By Allister Heath, The Daily Telegraph, Via GWPF, Apr 22, 2021

Not gonna happen: Replacing gas boilers to hit 2035 climate target could cost households ‘up to £25,000’

By Staff, The Daily Telegraph, Via GWPF, Apr 21, 2021

Questioning Green Elsewhere

The Green New Deal will impoverish America

This corporate-backed plan will come at the cost of people’s jobs and living standards.

By Joel Kotkin, Spiked, Apr 23, 2021

Not everyone got the memo

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 21, 2021

“…’Asked if such an abrupt reduction was possible, one of the report’s authors, executive director of the Australian National University Climate Change Institute Will Steffen, cited the example of allied nations transforming their economies in five years to defeat the Axis power in World War II.’”

The Political Games Continue

Having his tax and eating it too

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 21, 2021

Litigation Issues

New Biden Climate Policies May Face Strong Legal Headwinds

By Patrick J. Michaels, Real Clear Energy, April 23, 2021

Subsidies and Mandates Forever

The war on Big Oil has begun

By Rick Newman, Yahoo Finance, Apr 21, 2021

“The Tax Policy Center estimates those tax breaks are worth about $2.3 billion per year. Environmental groups put the value at $20 billion or more.”

[SEPP Comment: As discussed last week, the US Congressional Research Service estimated the cost all tax incentives for 2017 totaled $17.8 billion. Fossil fuel subsidies were $4.6 billion (25.8%). They produced 77.7% of total energy in BTU’s. Wind and solar subsidies were $9.5 billion (53.4%). They produced about 3.6% of total energy. ]

EPA and other Regulators on the March

DOT appoints chief science officer for first time in 40 years

By Alex Gangitano, The Hill, Apr 21, 2021

“DOT announced it also plans to re-designate a Scientific Integrity Officer to report to Hampshire.”

[SEPP Comment: Will scientific integrity officer be another political slogan.]

Energy Issues – Non-US

European Utilities Generate More Energy from Wood than from Wind and Solar

By Staff, Institute for Energy Research, Apr 19, 2021

[SEPP Comment: Pending conflict? US companies controlling forests to sequester carbon, EU countries buying forests for energy?]

EU seals ‘game changer’ deal setting carbon-cutting target

By Marc Burleigh, Brussels (AFP) April 21, 2021

“The European Parliament and EU member states agreed on Wednesday a target to cut carbon emissions by at least 55 percent by 2030…”

Climate change: UK to speed up target to cut carbon emissions

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 20, 2021

Energy Issues – Australia

Australians: still the Global Patsy grand achievers of climate change with 46% cuts, but we’re getting better at selling that

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Apr 24, 2021

Aussie PM Joins the Biden Climate Push, Promises Not to Change Anything

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Apr 21, 2021

Energy Issues — US

Texas energy companies push back against Berkshire Hathaway’s $8 billion plan for backup power

Revenue for 10 emergency power plants would come from a monthly charge on Texans’ power bills. The proposal is just one of several bills lawmakers are considering after February’s massive power outages.

By Mitchell Ferman, Texas Tribune, Apr 15, 2021

[SEPP Comment: A 9+% guaranteed profit is unacceptable?]

Washington’s Control of Energy

Oil and gas leasing pause on public lands will last at least through June

By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Apr 21, 2021

Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?

Pennsylvania’s Gas Decade: Insights Into Consumer Pricing Impacts From Shale Gas (2007–2016)

By Christina Simeone For University of Pennsylvania, Kleinman Center for Energy Policy, Real Clear Public Affairs, May 29, 2020

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles

Lithium shortage may unplug electric car revolution

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 19, 2021

Will US & European car industry survive super-cheap Chinese EVs?

EVs set to take off in China as rural consumers embrace $4,400 model

By Staff Nikkei Asia, Via GWPF, Apr 21, 2021

The Dawn Of The E-Vehicle Battery Environmental Disaster …Discarded Even Sooner Than Expected

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 17, 2021

Electric Cars Remain A Luxury Purchase

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 22, 2021

EV’s not family workhorses, but short range second cars

By Ronald Stein, WUWT, Apr 22, 2021

Carbon Schemes

The next energy revolution: US companies announce world’s first CO2-free gas-fired power plants

By Staff, E&E News, Via GWPF, Apr 18, 2021

Link to paper: Reducing Emissions: Without breaking the bank

By Andrew Montford, GWPF, 2020

[SEPP Comment: It will be interesting to see if the Allam generator using CO2 to drive turbines is more efficient than using steam to drive turbines. Both methods use fossil fuels, but in the Allam generator there is no need to heat water to create steam The energy required for the phase change of water is significant.]

California Dreaming

CA electric power chief says serious problems lie ahead

By David Wojick, CFACT, Apr 19, 2021

Link to: California’s Path to a Carbon-Neutral Grid

Elliot Mainzer ’98 became president and CEO of the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) on October 1, 2020, six weeks after devastating rolling blackouts hit the state during an August heat wave. He explains how California’s grid is preparing for another hot summer while fighting climate change by undertaking a massive transition to carbon-neutral power.

Yale Insights, Apr 6, 2021

Decarbonization and California’s 2020 Rolling Blackouts

By Robert Bradley, Jr. Institute for Energy Research, Apr 20, 2021

Environmental Industry

UN-Backed Climate Activists Plot to Circumvent US Congress in Run Up to Earth Day, Government Records Show

By Kevin Mooney, Real Clear Energy, April 21, 2021

Other Scientific News

Radiation & Health: Humans In Space

By Andrew Karam, Ph.D., CHP, ACSH, April 15, 2021

Other News that May Be of Interest

Taiwan’s worst drought in decades deepens chip shortage jitters

By Amber Wang, Taipei (AFP), April 21, 2021

Spotting greenhouse gas super-emitters

By Carol Rasmussen for JPL News, Pasadena CA (JPL), Apr 16, 2021


Sky Fall For WWF Propaganda [UK Newspaper]

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 21, 2021

‘Torn’: Living with top US greenhouse gas spewing power plant

By Joshua Melvin, West Jefferson, United States (AFP) April 20, 2021

“’It’s bad for the environment, it’s bad for people working in the place,’ said 60-year-old Hallmark, who still lives about a mile from the plant and wakes up some days to a coating of ash on her car.” [Boldface added]

[SEPP Comment: Strongly question the claim. Modern power plants in the US do not emit ash. What is called ash may be pollen, which coat cars in some areas during pollen season.]


1. Biden Wants to Spend, Not Invest

His plan draws down private capital to fund current consumption, not actual infrastructure.

By Glenn Hubbard, WSJ, Apr 21, 2021

TWTW Summary: The chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President George W. Bush writes:

“The Biden administration’s $2.3 trillion American Jobs Plan promises a revival of the nation’s infrastructure. But an infrastructure program should increase productivity and future wealth. That is, it should focus on investment, not current consumption. Over the long term, such a program would use federal funding to support aggregate demand, giving businesspeople further confidence in private investment.

“The American Jobs Plan doesn’t do this. Worse, if passed, it will actually make future attempts to invest in the nation’s infrastructure more difficult.

“The Biden plan proposes to spend only $115 billion on roads and bridges—much less than the $400 billion it earmarks for long-term care for the elderly and disabled. Even counting as infrastructure the plan’s $180 billion for research and development, the program spends far more on consumption than it does on investment.

“This isn’t semantics. Productivity-enhancing infrastructure can be partly debt-financed and still be fiscally wise, as it adds to future wealth, private income and federal revenue. Particularly given the significant long-term U.S. fiscal imbalance, new spending on social programs—a k a consumption—should be funded by current tax revenue, not borrowing. Projected revenue from raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%, and substantial further tax increases on U.S. multinational companies, won’t pay for the long-run additional social spending (even accepting a longer “window” for revenue increases than for the proposed spending).”

After going into some detail on corporate taxes the author continues:

The Biden administration will surely argue that the burden of a higher corporate tax falls on capital alone. That’s not true, but even if it were, it wouldn’t square with the purpose of an infrastructure program, which is to increase national wealth. Higher corporate tax rates and additional base broadening risk the competitiveness of U.S. multinationals, reducing profits and pushing down equity values. Hence, the tax increase reduces private wealth. It also extends a grasp beyond the rich; nonrich households will see the effects on their individual retirement accounts and 401(k) plans.

In addressing a need for revenue, the Biden administration could have proposed user fees or a carbon tax, a mechanism recommended by many economists (myself included) and business leaders as a way to reduce costly negative externalities associated with climate change. Such a tax is an excellent complement to the administration’s focus on a “greener” capital stock. The political problem here centers largely on progressive Democrats, who favor command-and-control regulation over market-based solutions.

With the American Jobs Plan, President Biden has asked Congress to approve modest infrastructure spending and significant new social spending, funded by an increase in corporate taxation and higher debt. A Congress focused on enhancing America’s future productivity and wealth would take an exit ramp before entering this new highway. It ends in a dirt road.


2. Walter Mondale Remade the Vice Presidency

‘We told the truth, we obeyed the law, and we kept the peace,’ he said of the Carter administration. They did more than that.

By Stuart Eizenstat, WSJ, Apr 22, 2021

[SEPP Comment: Can the current “progressive” administration say the same?]

TWTW Summary: The chief White House policy to President Carter discusses the low esteem the office of Vice President had during most of America’s History including Humphrey under Johnson. He continues:

But Mondale asked for an expanded role, in an 11-page memo to the president-elect a month before Inauguration Day. The memo, prepared for Mondale by his chief of staff, Dick Moe, requested that the vice president be given, among other things, the same intelligence briefings as the president; a seat at all meetings of the National Security Council and Domestic Policy Council, accompanied by members of his own staff; the authority to speak for the president in meetings with cabinet members and foreign leaders; weekly one-on-one meetings; and a leadership role on key legislative issues. Mr. Carter and Mondale coordinated these responsibilities at weekly private Oval Office lunches.

After some details on administration, the author continues:

One of his most important achievements was his leadership of the U.S. delegation at the July 1979 United Nations Special Refugee Conference in Geneva, which dealt with the humanitarian crisis in the wake of the Communist takeover of South Vietnam. After visiting the overwhelmed refugee camps in Thailand, Mondale stirred the dubious delegates by reminding them that at the 1938 Evian Conference on Jewish refugees from Nazi Germany, they ‘hid in the cloak of legalisms . . . and soon the night closed in.’ As a result, the U.S. Navy’s Sixth Fleet saved more than 800,000 Southeast Asian refugees. Most came to the U.S. and have been model citizens, but Mondale negotiated with France, Australia and Canada to accept thousands.

A longtime champion of Israel with deep ties to the American Jewish community, Mondale played a crucial role in securing Israel’s first peace with an Arab nation. At a time when tensions were high between Mr. Carter and Prime Minister Menachem Begin, Mondale led a mission of American Jewish leaders, in which I participated—we called it the Bagel Mission—to Jerusalem, and to Alexandria, Egypt, to meet with President Anwar Sadat. It helped lay the groundwork for the Camp David Accords with Egypt by relieving Begin’s suspicions of Mr. Carter and reaffirming for Sadat the administration’s determination to reach an agreement in which Israel would withdraw from the Sinai. Mr. Carter also called Mondale to Camp David at a critical time during the 13-day negotiations.

At home, Mondale convinced Mr. Carter to reverse the Justice Department’s opposition to the University of California’s affirmative-action program and put the weight of the administration behind allowing race to be a factor in college admissions. The U.S. Supreme Court agreed, and that is still the law. While Mr. Carter pressed for a balanced budget to help bring down soaring inflation, at the end of every budget cycle Mondale and I met with the president in his private study and persuaded him to add back a few billion dollars for such social programs as Head Start, healthcare and job training.

Their relationship weathered one crisis, in July 1979. With Mr. Carter’s support pummeled by gasoline lines and double-digit inflation, he called off a nationwide address on the energy crisis and retreated to Camp David to resuscitate his presidency. A furious argument erupted between Mondale and Pat Caddell, the president’s 29-year-old pollster, over Caddell’s prescription: a nationwide presidential address on the country’s supposed ‘crisis of confidence’—what Caddell saw as undue pessimism and self-indulgence. (It’s often called the ‘malaise’ speech, although it didn’t include that word.)

Mondale thought Caddell’s idea was sophomoric. His advice was sharp: ‘Mr. President, we got elected on the ground that we wanted a government as good as the American people; now as I hear it, we want to tell them we needed a people as good as their government. There’s plenty of reasons for the American people to want answers, without having their mental stability questioned. If we do that, I think we’re goners.’ Mr. Carter followed Caddell’s advice and then took Mondale for a long walk around Camp David to cool him off. It failed to quell his anger.

A few days later, when the speech was followed by a blanket request for the cabinet to resign so Mr. Carter could decide which members to reappoint, Mondale invited me to a lunch at a small Chinese restaurant to tell me he was thinking about resigning, or at least withdrawing from the ticket in 1980. I think he was just blowing off steam, and he didn’t follow through. Sen. Ted Kennedy’s primary challenge, the president’s multiple crises, and his appreciation for the way he had been treated as vice president, kept him fully engaged in the campaign, which succeeded in defeating Kennedy but not Ronald Reagan.

At the end of the administration, Mondale summed up its accomplishments in words that now appear on a prominent wall of the Carter Presidential Center in Atlanta: ‘We told the truth, we obeyed the law, and we kept the peace.’ They had more achievements besides, but that would be legacy enough.

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April 26, 2021 2:57 am

Another Carl Sagan quote:

We burn wood and oil, coal and natural gas, and, in the process, release waste gases, principally CO2, into the air. Consequently, the carbon dioxide content of the Earth’s atmosphere is increasing dramatically. The possibility of a runaway greenhouse effect suggests that we have to be careful: Even a one- or two- degree rise in the global temperature can have catastrophic consequences.

From Cosmos, 1980

Reply to  TheFinalNail
April 26, 2021 4:56 am

Bullsh!t Carl. But RIP.

From Allan MacRae, 2021

Last edited 1 year ago by Allan MacRae
April 26, 2021 5:06 am

Great summary. So much to comment on and so little time. I am continually amazed that radiation always dominates the discussion. In the troposphere, convection dominates.

Something that always grates on me. The “Greenhouse Effect” doesn’t slow down the process of “heat” escaping from the surface. Photons leaving the earths surface collide with all gas molecules, not just Greenhouse Gases. GHGs, because of their 3-atom structure, can absorb Photons setting off vibrational processes. Heat is the motion of molecules. If the earth didn’t have an atmosphere, photons would just radiate to space, there would be no sense of atmospheric heat as there would be no motion of molecules. Despite not being GHGs, N2 and O2 radiate. They play a role is atmospheric warmth as they are molecules in motion.

The heavy lifting of the earth’s energy balance is hydrological cycle. Convection moves water vapor with latent heat from evaporation to a height where it condenses. Rick Will and Willis are right in my view. Emergent phenomena, like thunder storms, etc. keep the maximum temperature of the oceans to approximately 30 Celsius. It can’t be otherwise. When I hear Bill Gates talk about the tropics becoming too hot to live because of increased CO2 it makes my skin crawl. What in the world is he talking about. Does he not understand the hydrological cycle. Apparently not. If you look at the 600 million year graphs of temperature and CO2, what stands out is that the maximum temperature is about 29 degrees Celsius.

Another thing I find strange is that the Gas Laws are seldom discussed. The molar form of the ideal Gas Laws can be used to calculate the temperature at the South Pole and the equator to a very close approximation. If you plug in a doubling of CO2, not much changes. Why is this? Doubling CO2 doesn’t change the molecular weight of the atmosphere by very much. Since pressure is just gravity acting on molecules, it makes perfect sense that doubling CO2 would have almost no impact on surface pressures. Since pressure is just movement of molecules, it also makes sense that if pressures don’t change neither will temperatures. Of course, there are all kinds of convective and advective movements of air that complicate things.

I also think the Stephen Wilde’s focus on convection is the right approach. Without convection there are no emergent phenomena or hydrological cycle.

Its very sad to see so much of climate science lost in model world. Does anyone else find it weird that models are calibrated used adjusted temperatures and the adjustments are almost perfectly correlated with CO2 changes. What I weird path that climate science has taken.

Solar Mutant Ninjaneer
Reply to  Nelson
April 28, 2021 2:09 pm

Exactly! Nelson you have it figured out.

I like analogies and a good one is “swimming pools vs. solar ponds”.

Convection is in parallel with radiation and is the primary mechanism for transporting solar heat from the Earth’s surface to the TOA.  For a reality check, consider a similar problem – a 3-meter-deep pool of clear water with a dark bottom being heated by direct sunlight. Like the Earth, it consists of a solar-heated horizontal surface under a “greenhouse” fluid, with heat rejected on top. Heat rejection from the pool occurs at the pool surface driven primarily by convection, while heat rejection from the top of the atmosphere is by radiation. Unlike Earth’s atmosphere, where the temperature naturally follows a compressive heating supported lapse rate, the pool’s lapse rate is nominally zero. Because of the greenhouse effect, we would expect both the pool and Earth’s atmosphere to create or enhance temperature gradients, where it is warmer at the bottom and cooler towards the top. However, our experience shows that an outdoor swimming pool does no such thing, even when left undisturbed. Temperature distributions in solar-heated swimming pools and ponds are mostly uniform and if anything, warmer towards the top. The reason, of course, is convective mixing in the pool. When water is heated at the bottom it becomes less dense, thus creating buoyancy, which naturally drives mixing. Similarly, when air is heated at Earth’s surface it becomes less dense, also creating buoyancy. In addition, water evaporation and condensation further enhance convection and combined with spatial and temporal variations, and Earth’s rotation and scale, create a wide range of chaotic convective mixing called weather.
Now consider a 3-meter-deep pool of clear water with a dark bottom heated by direct sunlight, but with salt introduced at the bottom. Eventually the salt dissolves, and if not disturbed, creates a salt gradient with a high concentration at the bottom, which decreases to nearly fresh water at the top. The salt gradient causes a density gradient that stifles the natural buoyancy of the solar-heated water at the bottom. The result is the suppression of convection, heat transfer is limited to radiation and conduction through the water. Such solar ponds exist, both natural and manmade, and in fact achieve temperatures of up to 90oC at the bottom and a very steep lapse rate with near ambient temperatures at the surface. Although the solar heated pool case is vastly different than Earth’s atmosphere, it clearly shows the importance of convection in regulating surface temperature. It also shows that lapse rate is affected by heat transfer. If we could suppress convection in Earth’s atmosphere average surface temperatures of around 50oC or more would be expected. Convection, not radiation, is, therefore, the primary heat transfer mechanism between Earth’s surface and the top of the atmosphere.

April 26, 2021 10:19 am

I believe this is probably just one of many Feynman quotes relevant here. What he says sounds easy, but it’s very hard to do.

Last edited 1 year ago by PaulH
April 26, 2021 8:57 pm

“None of the lurid predictions — dangerously accelerating sea-level rise, increasingly extreme weather, more deadly forest fires, unprecedented warming, etc. — are any more accurate than the fire-and-brimstone sermons used to stoke fanaticism in medieval crusaders.” The sermons were accurate and I would be writing this in Arabic if the Church didn’t rally the people to the danger.

Kevin kilty
April 28, 2021 8:40 am

People now forget what Sagan was like long after his passing. He could be dead wrong about science, which is forgiveable of course, but he could be dogmatic, condescending, and downright conceited, none of which are forgiveable. He also became a science celebrity like our present Dr. Fauci. I recall around the early 1990s a letter to the editor of The American Journal of Physics complaining that Sagan was about to receive yet another science award, the Oersted Medal in this case. “Was there no one else in physics worthy of an award?” the letter writer asked.

Science is just marginally different from Feynman’s cargo cult, and occasionally it strays into the dangerous zone.

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