Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Who is going to tell China? According to scientists interviewed by the SMH, there is still a chance to avoid 2C warming if we immediately halt the expansion of all coal and gas projects.
Facing the climate ‘endgame’ in a world bound for 1.5 degrees warming
By Nick O’Malley
April 15, 2021 — 12.01amThe world will break through the more ambitious Paris climate target of 1.5 degrees as soon as 2030 but may still avoid a more catastrophic 2 degrees of warming if governments act immediately to dramatically reduce emissions, according to a new report.
The Climate Council report, Aim High, Go Fast, is based on new data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and echoes similar findings by the Australian Academy of Science issued last week, but has prompted a dissenting report from one prominent Australian climate scientist, Bill Hare.
…
In the report the Climate Council says that in view of Australia’s historical contribution to global warming, its high emissions and its natural advantages in renewable energy generation, the government should now aim to reduce emissions by 75 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030 and reach net zero by 2035.
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Asked if such an abrupt reduction was possible, one of the report’s authors, executive director of the Australian National University Climate Change Institute Will Steffen, cited the example of allied nations transforming their economies in five years to defeat the Axis power in World War II.
“The point is, it’s going to be a tough decade, no doubt about it,” he said. “There’ll be some disruption soon, but it’ll be an exciting decade and it’ll set us up for a much brighter future after 2030.”
To reach such targets Professor Steffen said the government would need to immediately halt the expansion of coal and gas and plan to support affected communities as fossil fuels were phased out. Secondly, Australia would have to reach almost 100 per cent renewables in its energy system by 2030.
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Read more: https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/facing-the-climate-endgame-in-a-world-bound-for-1-5-degrees-warming-20210414-p57j8j.html
Oddly the Climate Council don’t seem to have published their report on their own website – I’m sure it will appear at some point. The climate council report is available here. Don’t get excited by Bill Hare’s dissenting report, he apparently thinks the Climate Council is not alarmist enough.
I’m looking forward to 2030. Climate alarmists have once again fallen into the trap of making a radical prediction with a near term horizon. Just like Al Gore’s ice free arctic by 2013, or Climate Council head Tim Flannery’s 2006 end of rain prediction, 2030 is too soon.
Either we won’t hit 1.5C by 2030, despite building hundreds of new coal plants, in which case climate alarmists will have to explain why, or they will look stupid when we do hit 1.5C, and nobody can tell the difference. Either way it will be an entertaining new entry in the list of failed climate predictions.
Update (EW): Me bad – the Climate Council report is at the top of their page.
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Claim: 1.5C Global Warming by 2030 – But There is Still a Chance to Avoid 2C
More BS from the climate clowns!
Show me 10 places that are suffering from the slight amount of warming that has happened since the 1980s and he will display themselves as another lying or derange fool!
2°C would be most welcome.
Higher global temperatures and more atmospheric CO2 levels are good!
Lower temperatures and CO2 levels equals death!
( wish these climate warming alarmists would get their act together and start delivering some of their much talked about climate warming.
I am fed up with the constant overnight frosts we are getting here in the UK Midlands. this year. Maybe it is just weather, and at some point the BBC will declare a heat wave has arrived when the daily temperature manages to reach 20 deg. C again, like it did one day last month….I am forever the optimist.
The alarmists are immune against all the fact and it will never be possible to ridicule them. Why ? It is a religion.
Western nations are now “climate emergency theocracies” crazier than ISIS.
Alarmists keep making this comparison with WWII – “during the war…blah, blah, blah.” Yet a moments thought would show that other than state direction, there’s no similarity to fighting a war. In fact they are almost completely opposite. The main actions taken during the second world war was to crank up manufacturing to the maximum, using more energy to do so, and then using the result of that output to blow things up. Call me skeptical, but I don’t see how that’s going to achieve net zero.
And if we ever had another major shooting war- we just crank up the solar and wind farms?
Some guy in NATO suggested using solar-powered tanks. Seriously. The West is doomed.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/02/14/nato-chief-suggests-battle-tanks-with-solar-panels-as-militaries-go-green/
A better comparison would be with the nazi’s who were chronically short of oil. Even with every incentive to do so they could not significantly increase their supply of fuel. The allies are not a good comparison because they had enough oil to power their economy and weapons without using synthetic fuel. The allies never tried to replace any of their energy shortfall with synthetic fuel. . In the same way the Nazi’s were unable to solve their fuel supplies with synthetic fuel, the zero carbon people will be unable to replace fossil fuels with renewable energy. The zero carbon people even with a WW2 style effort will end up failing just like the Nazi’s did. Maybe the zero carbon people will bring back horses to move stuff like the Nazi’s did.
1.5C above pre-industrial by 2030 would seem pretty unlikely considering Hadsst3 (more plausible than global) linear trend has it now ~7C above 1850 i.e. the current trend of 0.04C/decade.
https://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadsst3gl/plot/hadsst3gl/trend
According to NOAA the current rate of CO2 increase is around 2.5ppm/yr so at that rate in 2030 the CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa would be around 445 ppm.
1.5C in the next ten years would require a sudden and spectacular reversal of the current temperature to CO2 concentration correlation, not necessarily implying a direct causal link.
http://clivebest.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/CO2-dependency.png
That should be 0.7C.
ROFLMAO..
…I would love to know how they measured global SSTs to fractions of a degree back in 1850 ! 😉
You are right of course, but strategically rebuttals of the alarmist nonsense like this needs to be on their terms unfortunately, IMO.
The UAH linear trend since 1979 exactly matches the HadSST trend over the period, UAH being the most reliable data set.
https://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadsst3gl/from:1979/trend/offset:-0.4/plot/uah6/trend
Any rebuttal has to be based on something otherwise ‘they’ gain credibility by default.
(the last sentence above should be ‘1.5C above pre-industrial …’).
Just “accepting” made up data that is mathematically and physically IMPOSSIBLE…. plays right into their little games.
Again, where is the data from 1850 that allows them to make that statement ????
.. it either exists OR IT DOESN’T !
Even in 1950 there was less than 5% coverage of the southern oceans
—————
And matching over a period when there was actually some small amount of data…
…. DOES NOT IMPLY any sort of accuracy over a period when THERE WAS BASICALLY NO DATA.
models and tree rings? :-}
Central limit theory can do wonders!
I don’t see why Australia needs to do anything what we do isn’t going to make any difference we are such a small emitter. Unless you are a greentard and want to discuss emissions per capita but that is stupid we are a world of nations why should it matter what your population is. When Australia competes at the Olympics or any other world event we don’t get special rules because we are only 26Million people … we get treated the same as US, China and every other country.
Well, once China rules the world – your population will explode- the Chinese will need all that empty space.
China is hungrily eyeing all of Australia’s vast uranium deposits, bauxite, iron ore, coking coal, natural gas and for them… just few people to defend it.
Australia is labeled “New China” on CCP world maps.
another 0.6 C in 9 years? impossible.
“or they will look stupid when we do hit 1.5C, and nobody can tell the difference”
Or many of us will say, “praise the Lord for warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons”.
Tell that to my Grapefruit, Lemon, Orange and Tangerine trees in Houston. No life left in any of them.
I was going to say they made the classic blunder of a prediction too soon in the future but you beat me too it. I am going to love it when 2030 comes along and nothing has happened. Of course they’ll say nothing happened because of some tepid mitigation effort that occurred and of course they’ll push the prediction down the road a bit but I’m still going to laugh and laugh and laugh.
My first question is, if we keep having year after year heat records, how come the last record minimum Arctic ice was almost 10 years ago, the Antarctic is setting record highs? Like Ice in your drink the warmer it gets the less ice we have.
https://nsidc.org/arcticsea…
My second question is if this is the warmest temperatures in thousands of years, why are the retreating glaciers exposing human remains, Roman coins and “Viking highways”? These artifacts suggest it was warmer in recent times and a colder recent climate covered them over.
https://www.theweathernetwo…
Why is homogenizing the temperature data the correct way to show the temperature record, wouldn’t the raw data average out the outliers?
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/…
my links didn’t post properly, apologies,
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/?fbclid=IwAR1fC1dpq5gv8jw3Ozw36iIF0GagXvCenfJ-UOuzvFDGWYakJ-zsRXNHEZ4
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/lost-viking-highway-and-artifacts-revealed-by-melting-glaciers-in-norway
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/stdata_show_v4.cgi?id=USC00054452&dt=1&ds=14
And, we really mean it this time. It’s your last chance.
To paraphrase the old Chinese curse, “May you live in exciting times.”
The Australian Climate Council report says that “the world will break through the…target of 1.5 C by 2030”. What they don’t say is since when would this warming occur, and how much of it has already occurred. I’ve seen reports of 0.8 C warming since 1900, but that would only be an average rate of 0.067 C per decade–why would that suddenly accelerate to 0.7 C over the next single decade?
They also show a graph showing nearly exponential growth of global CO2 emissions at a rate of 1.65% per year. Australia has only about 0.32% of the world’s population (25.5 million out of 7.86 billion in the world in 2020), so even if Australia zeroed out its CO2 emissions in a single year, the increase in emissions from other countries, particularly China and India, would overwhelm the decrease from Australia. It would be like trying to empty out a bathtub with a teaspoon when others are pouring gallon jugs of water into it.
[QUOTE FROM ARTICLE]“The point is, it’s going to be a tough decade, no doubt about it,” he said. “There’ll be some disruption soon, but it’ll be an exciting decade and it’ll set us up for a much brighter future after 2030.”[END QUOTE]
If they go through with this, the “much brighter future” in Australia in the 2030’s will resemble the 1930’s in the USA–a severe economic depression.
As for the comparison with World War II, it became obvious by 1940 and 1941 that Nazi Germany and imperial Japan were very real existential threats to the rest of Europe and the USA, and had to be defeated at all costs. It’s not at all obvious that a 2 C warming of the climate would threaten anyone’s life.
the climate ‘endgame’
the new terminology of the climate crooks.
Article writer seems almost giddy at the prospect of millions acting on his whims, sacrificing their quality of life (and probably actual lives) to unite to fight the phantom menace. Australia’s high emissions!?!?! Just puff of smoke in a forest fire.
With the end of the El Nino dominated warming from 2014-2020 the bottom has just fallen out of the global temperature. As the UAH data shows we are now back down to the level of the original pause.
https://woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/from:1997/to/plot/uah6/from:1997/to:2015/trend
With no new El Nino in sight there must be some panic going on in alarmist quarters. I haven’t seen new SST temperatures in two months. Usually, when we see this type of delay you can expect more data tampering.
If a new round of major data “corrections” start showing up it won’t be difficult at all for them to claim another .5 C of warming.
Question ? Will the so called Co2 reductions they keep trying to make up ever catch up with the actual Co2 emissions of China and India?
what does 1.5c even mean in terms of all temperatures at all points of the globe? Temp varitions are extreme – from minus 50 in the arctic to plus 45 in the sahara. With those temperature extremes, the goal of 1.5c becomes meaningless.
If the temperature pattern evident since the 1880’s continues then the temperature in 2035 will be no higher than in 2005 and the only lengthy period of continuous warming in this century will be from 2035 until 2065. The periods from 2005-2035 and 2065-2095 will be regarded as periods of pause in temperature rise.