By Jim Steele
Cold snaps can be deadly. A 2014 National Health Statistics reports found, “During 2006–2010, about 2,000 U.S. residents died each year from weather-related deaths; 63% were attributed to exposure to natural cold. The recent cold snap in Texas and Germany highlighted our energy system’s vulnerabilities. During times of our greatest need, inadequate natural gas supplies, frozen wind turbines and snow-covered solar panels, left too many shivering in the dark. Why were we unprepared for such cold when the northern hemisphere had been experiencing a winter cooling trend since 1990? Were government officials too gullible, lulled by narratives that global warming would make snow disappear and cold snaps less likely?
The vortex was heavily studied in the 1990s due to concerns about ozone holes. Although typically ignored by the media, increasing CO2 both warms the lower atmosphere (troposphere) and cools the stratosphere. Climate models all predicted the vortex would strengthen because greenhouse gases would enhance stratospheric cooling by 5–7°C during December and January by 2019. Because ozone depletion requires extreme cold, it was feared increasing CO2 would enhance the ozone holes. Furthermore, climate scientists argued a warming troposphere and a cooling stratosphere was the undeniable “human fingerprint” of CO2 caused climate change. But their science was woefully incomplete. Stratospheric warming increased and the vortex weakened despite CO2‑caused cooling.
High in the stratosphere, the boundary of the vortex is symmetrical simply based on the contrast between colder and warmer latitudes. However, near the surface, mountains and land‑sea temperature contrasts naturally cause the jet stream to be wavy. The Pacific high‑pressure system and USA’s western mountain ranges cause the jet stream to veer northward, pulling warm subtropical air north over North America’s west coast. Moving eastward the jet stream then plunges southward driving extreme cold into the USA east of the Rocky Mountains. This natural undulation likely explains the “warming hole” in southeastern USA where temperatures have not warmed for over a century. Over 36% of the long‑term USA weather stations, concentrated mostly in the eastern USA, experienced 70‑year cooling trends despite urban heat island affects.
Some climate scientists argue CO2 induced “Arctic Amplification” causing warmer polar temperatures which increased the jet stream’s waviness. However, there is no consensus for their hypothesis, and some argue there is little evidence at all for that effect. Nonetheless there is an excellent, albeit ignored explanation for the warming Arctic/cooling mid‑latitudes paradox. The natural quasi‑permanent Aleutian Low nearly explains it all.
The Arctic Ocean radiates away more heat (~100 watts/m2) than it absorbs from sun and greenhouse effects combined. (human‑added CO2 offsets less than 2 watts/m2) It’s the inflow of warm ocean water that determines if the Arctic ocean cools or warms. Like the stratospheric vortex, the Aleutian Low forms every year as the northern hemisphere cools, but its position and strength vary due to natural El Nino cycles, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation. When the Aleutian Low is positioned over the Bering Sea it drives warm southern air and warm storms further northward. That dynamic also raises sea level south of the Bering Strait, increasing warm water flows through the strait. Increased warm water flows melt more sea ice and triggers Arctic Amplification and higher temperatures.
Simultaneously, when the Aleutian Low is positioned over the Bering Sea its strength increases, intensifying upward motions of relatively warm air into the stratosphere. It’s that warmth that weakens the polar vortex and unleashes the cold Arctic air. When natural weather re‑positions the Aleutian Low over the Gulf of Alaska, wind direction changes, blowing water away from the Bering Strait. That reduces warm water flows into the Arctic. The Aleutian Low also weakens reducing upward atmospheric motion, allowing the vortex to strengthen.
The Aleutian Low’s position changes throughout the winter and from year to year. However, before the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) switched phases, between 1950–1976 the Aleutian Low spent, on average, 16 months over the Bering Sea and 20 months over the Gulf of Alaska. After the PDO shifted, the Aleutian Low only spent 7 months during the next 25 years over the Gulf Alaska and more time over the Bering Sea. That shift changed the balance to a warmer Arctic, a more common weaker vortex and more cold snaps.
Clearly energy policy must be better prepared to deal with natural climate change its periodic extreme cold.
Jim Steele is Director emeritus of San Francisco State University’s Sierra Nevada Field Campus, authored Landscapes and Cycles: An Environmentalist’s Journey to Climate Skepticism, and a member of the CO2 Coalition
I can’t get over the fact that there are people who think we just need more unreliable energy sources for the system to work.
I have friends who believe that unreliable energy sources will stop the earths climate from changing. These are people who i went through undergrad science with, most of them had much better marks than i could dream of getting.
I can’t explain it. How did they end up like this?
Scissor/Klem, I can’t get over the fact that there are people who think the climate only started changing when man started burning fossil fuel for energy. AND/OR that Governments can stabilize the climate by clamping down on its’ (fossil fuels) use..
Surely you think it reasonable that human CO2 could have a new, additional impact on climate, on top of/alongside all pre-existing climate drivers?
Nope.
Where’s the evidence, griff?
griff,
The earth’s climate has existed within natural bounds for millenia. The belief that human’s impact on the climate today can destroy the earth is just alarmism of the same type as that being preached by the zealot on the street corner that the earth will blow up tomorrow.
More than or less than 500 millennia?
There is no data that supports man-made climate change claim. There was once a national consensus where they followed the science and said the Aryan race was superior. Problem was — the data did not support the claim.
Hi griff.🤣
Maybe in griff’s little hallucinogenic-driven FANTASY LAND
There is in fact NO SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE of warming by atmospheric CO2
NADA, NONE, ZIP
It exists only in erroneous , unvalidated models and in the anti-science minds of AGW cults and hangers-on.
You have been given ample chance to PRODUCE THE EVIDENCE..
.. and you and your cults troll-buddies have FAILED COMPLETELY.
Time to KEEP YOUR IDIOTIC FANTASIES TO YOURSELF
…. or back them up with actual empirical scientific evidence
Griff Last I heard was that human CO2 was 0.03 of the 0.0004 that resides in the atmosphere.
You do the numbers and convince yourself that that’s a significant component.
People once thought it was reasonable to believe that carrying around a rabbit’s foot would bring you luck. Some still do. But without any supporting evidence (other than anecdotal), I’ll stick with the default position that it makes no difference.
That is funny, and brings back memories from when I was a youngster in the 1950s.I had a rabbit’s foot back then as did some of my friends. They were still popular at that time
Not at all, no reason for 😀
Imagination much?
Of course, Griff. Everything, from a blade of grass to a single phytoplankton to the moon and planets themselves, all have a non zero effect on climate.
Your point being?
Using Griff logic there are more people on the Earth than ever in history so the Earth is gaining mass with all those people.
I suggest you look up King Canute. He demonstrated to his courtesans that even the all powerful king could not control the sea.
I think you should look up the definition of the word “courtesan”.
Griff, Here is what i think and have a plethora of evidence for:
I think it is reasonable that as the climate changes (cold to hot and back again) over “glacial time”, due to natural variability that it is in mans best interest to use fossil fuel to mitigate not only the downside of climate change but to survive the adverse effects of weather that the ALGORE alarmists, for year claimed could NOT be conflated with climate but now use on a daily basis as evidence of your “Man Made Climate Change Bunkum.”
I think that the goal of the world governments and the wealth holders who run them, is for the faceless cultural elite to control the great unwashed masses. No better way of doing that than controlling fossil fuel usage. And that you Griff are a paid tool or a fool of that evil cabal.
Answer … follow the money … but first you have to sell your “ethics” soul. Crime pays especially for climate alarmists.
Ignorance can be cured, stupidity is terminal.
Or how they think that China can keep emitting CO2 at a huge rate while small, but expensive, reductions in CO2 emissions in Western coutries will “save the climate.”
It is just a religion.
too true mate! All those nukes off line and gas supplies frozen leading to thermal stations shutting down. Plus of course cut yourself off from interstate power and this is what you get
1% of thermal plants shutting down.
50% of wind shutting down.
100% of solar shutting down.
Obviously the solution is more wind and solar.
To those who place ideology above all, it makes perfect sense!
Gaia will not bless you unless you submit totally and unconditionally.
Consistency and predictability are crucial as principles for successful process control.
No process control engineer would design a system that intentionally adds components that lead to random disturbances. Rather, disturbances are to be minimized and eliminated if possible.
Added to that the high degree of autocorrelation of wind and solar. Its worse than random. Adding more only exacerbates the intermittency.
Well I tried to open up my fan the other day to oil the motor shaft. I found an evil, purposefully designed screw for which no screwdriver available to mortal men could fit…I was pretty randomly disturbed .Not to be stopped, I ground a drill bit to fit it and opened the f**k’n thing!.
We do try to keep these out of the hands of mere mortals.
Something like 10 bucks at Harbor Freight for the set, I have one. Only needed one tip for testing fire alarm systems. They had a smaller set with the tip needed, but what the hell, I bought the big set. I don’t loose my tools so will have the set for the rest of my life. If I ever run into almost any security type screw, I think I will be OK.
Natural gas pipelines do not freeze. The freezing point of natural gas at normal pipeline pressures is far below the coldest temperatures due of weather. Water in the gas pipeline could freeze except that the gas is dried to a dew point below -40 (F or C take your pick).
Gas delivery reductions to power plants were due to increased demand for building heating and limited pipeline capacity. There was apparently also a problem with some gas compression facilities that rely on electric compressors losing power. I read that many producers switched from gas powered compressors to electric so they could claim they were green.
Rick I read bout the same thing regarding the gas compressors. To allow some pipe lines the agreement was that the compressors would use wind energy. Wind stopped, compressors quit, gas kaput.
And then greens could trumpet about unreliable gas energy.
The problem with the natural gas flow is at the well head. There is moisture in the raw flow coming out of the well head. In colder areas of the US and Canada the well heads and infrastructure are winterized. This was recommended for Texas but never implemented.
Yea, too bad there’s no simple way to keep gas well heads from freezing in cold weather. If only they had a cheap readily available source of heat to do this.
Apparently, there wasn’t much “interstate power” available. The cold snap wasn’t just in Texas.
You are correct about there not being any “interstate power” available.
Most of the states around Texas were either already doing rotating black outs, or begging their customers to conserve.
That’s the problem and reality that people like Mark Z. Jacobson fail to comprehend, i.e., weather tends to vary and correlate regionally. Yet, he’s a prophet (or profit) for the GND folks.
https://www.cell.com/one-earth/pdf/S2590-3322(19)30225-8.pdf
There was none, because the Texan grid is not connected to any other grid.
By design: it apparently allows them to avoid Federal regulation (which might in fact have required them to winterise the gas plant and avoid this)
Wrong. They are connected to 3 other grids.
Griff doesn’t bother with reality.
Sorry for the redundant comment folks, but sometimes you just gotta say it.
You’re an idiot, griff.
What does it matter? None of the interconnecting grids had any power for sale! Oklahma to North Dakota and Missouri to Arkansas were living under the same conditions and were putting out all kinds of messages for people to conserve or there would be blackouts in these states.
LIAR !
Come of grifftard, why continue with DELIBERATE LIES that are so easily proven BLATANT LIES.
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2021/02/18/midwest-have-no-surplus-power-for-texas/
The problem was that they spent SO MUCH MONEY…
…. on destroying RELIABILITY by removing coal, ..
…. and introducing UNRELIABILITY into their grid in the form of wind and solar.
Adding some intelligent comment to the mix again? Which nukes were offline and what gas supplies were frozen? If you don’t have something intelligent to say, you could read some factual articles instead of your climate alarmist drivel.
half-runt FAILS AGAIN
Wind.. AWOL
Solar .. NADA
GAS carried the day with help from what little coal and nuclear was still available.
If not for coal, gas and nuclear, Texas might be out of power for the next month.
It’s estimated the windmill fail will likely have caused about $50 billion in damage in Texas.
Somebody said it cost about $50 billion to install all those windmills in Texas.
Blow $50 billion on windmills, and then lose $50 billion more when the windmills fail.
The Texas power grid needs some adult supervision.
First the need to wipe out the insidious mental disease that is ACDS.!
(Anti-CO2 Derangement Syndrome)
Only then, can common-sense and rational provision of eletricity make a come-back.
It is not unlike the mentality, that when shown gun control laws don’t work as hoped, the usual response is that the laws didn’t go far enough.
I think the problem is that once a person makes a mental commitment to a ‘solution’ to a problem, they have an emotional investment in being right and want vindication for their ‘wisdom’ and ‘prescience.’ Thus, they reject the obvious, rational conclusion that they were wrong, and double down on their bet. The basic problem is that people aren’t really inherently rational. They are only capable of acting rational for short periods of time in order to achieve their irrational goals.
Yes, by golly, if the criminals won’t follow existing gun laws, more laws just need to be created until they do.
The same is said about Socialism.
Wow sounds like weather to me
Yes, and if there is enough of it, over a period of time, it is climate, too.
Always interesting, the posts of Jim Steele. My experience living in Argentina for24 years is that during La Niña years the latitude winds are weaker and inconsistent, and polar (south polar) outbreaks of cold air are much more common during the summer. Argentina and Chile just suffered one such outbreak, and I guarantee you it is rare to see so much snow in the Andes mid-summer. Weather/climate are complicated systems but every year more progress appears to push along the understanding.
I really like this paper by Jim Steele.
How has the zonda been, Ron?
Weaker in La Niña years, still occurs though, surprising wind and temperature spikes. The zonda is the same effect as the Chinook in Denver, or the Washoe Zephyr in Reno, both of which tend to ruin an outdoor picnic.
Joe D’Aleo connects Strat-warm events to the solar max/min and the QBO (quasi-biannual occilation). The attached chart is his: quite the correlation.
The solar cycle definitely is involved…
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5861038/
With a weak sun, as is now the case, the polar vortex is weaker and meanders occasionally deep south. With an active sun, it stays firmly on its place…
The connection is to find in the decreased UV radiation in times the sun is low. The thermosphere cools and shrinks. That’s indexed as TCI
Michael Lookwood published papers about the UV role.
If you study the Termosphere Climate Index (TCI, spaceweather has it) it shows the same pattern. Up till today. Coinciding fairly well with the colder NH-winters many places. In 2021, 2010, 1998 (+2001?), 1986/87, 1978/79, 1965/66 and 1955. Not to say there has not been other winters with cold weather, but these stands out. When the termosphere shirks due to lower temperatures it certainly seems to “strain” the Jet-stream creating unusual patterns. Both summer and winter. Not an unlogical source to hysteria.
What bothers me is how TCI has bottomed out this time. Well, we always look for patterns, right? Any input welcome.
Best from Norway
At spaceweather.com you find a complete explanation about the TCI.
Sixty years ago, the Mid-Atlantic East Coast of the U.S. routinely had and expected intense episodic winter cold snaps.
In those days, they were called “Alberta Clippers.”
Today, after the expenditure of billions of government dollars and the creation of a tribe of witch doctors (a/k/a “climate scientists”), the phenomena is claimed as evidence of “Catastrophic/dangerous, CO2-driven anthropogenic global warming/climate change.”
It’s just weather. Sometimes the arctic cold fronts are a little more severe than average like this year, but that’s just weather, too.
You can not overstate what a catastrophic failure the Texas Energy situation is. The agricultural sector is being destroyed and people are paying catastrophic electricity bills all because they “diversified” their energy portfolio with unreliable energy sources. That isn’t diversification, which should increase return/lower cost and lower risk, it increased costs/lowers returns and increases risk. Only a fool would do that, and Texas was foolish enough to believe the progressives. China is building coal and nuclear plants for a reason, they don’t listen to the economy destroying environomentalists.
And yet the endlessly unending chant is we must believe the experts. Perhaps we should require that they be experts in the fields they are experting in, that might make a bit of a difference.
2hotel9:
Professional:- Someone who makes a living doing something and sometimes makes a mistake.
Expert:- Drip under pressure.
Or, we use to define it as: Ex is a has-been. Spert is what a dog does to a tree.
China and Russia are ROFL at the unbridled stupidity of western woke leaders who are all trying to one-up each other in their relentless pursuit to destroy western civilization because “climate change”. Sadly, IMO, there will need to be a serious catastrophe costing a lot of lives where the cause is irrefutably due to the over reliance on unreliables to get people to wake up. Texas does not qualify given that the left can too easily point to the failure of fossil fuel plants and obscure that investment was diverted from resiliency in favor of unreliables. If TX had not shut down coal plants, and had taken the money spent on wind turbines and used it to harden their fossil fuel plants – the impact of this winter storm would have been a lot less horrific.
Global politics has now become toxic and unhinged, with the extreme-left panicking, and trying to force the neo-Marxist Great Reset on us all.
WHY NOW? Because solar-driven global cooling is upon us, and the fraud of catastrophic human-caused global warming is about to be exposed to even the most obtuse of humanity.
The Situation Assessment is described below – its perpetrators are among the most evil scoundrels on Earth, and to date they are succeeding.
For decades, climate skeptics have been correctly arguing that the science of the global warming extremists was wrong, but it was never about the science – it was always a fraud – a false scheme concocted for political and financial gain.
People give the warmist cabal too much credibility – false alarm is their tactic – the climate alarmist leaders know they are lying – they’ve known it all along.
SITUATION ASSESSMENT – first published many months ago:
It’s ALL a Marxist-Democrat scam – false enviro-hysteria including the Climate and Green-Energy frauds, the full-Gulag lockdown for Covid-19, the specious linking of these frauds (“to solve one we have to solve the other”), paid-and-planned terrorism by Antifa and BLM, and the mail-in ballot US election scam – it’s all false.
The Climate-and-Covid scares are false crises, concocted by wolves to stampede the sheep.
The tactics used by the warmist propagandists are straight out of Lenin’s playbook. The Climategate emails provided further evidence of the warmists’ deceit – they don’t debate, they shout down dissent and seek to harm those who disagree with them – straight out of Lenin.
The purported “science” of global warming catastrophism has been disproved numerous ways over the decades.
Every one of the warmists’ very-scary predictions, some 50 or so since ~1982, have failed to happen. The most objective measure of scientific competence is the ability to correctly predict – and the climate fraudsters have been 100% wrong to date.
There is a powerful logic that says that no rational person can be this wrong, this deliberately obtuse, for this long – that they must have a covert agenda. I made this point circa 2009, and that agenda is now fully exposed – it is the Marxist totalitarian “Great Reset” – “you will own nothing, and you’ll be happy!”
The proponents of both the very-scary Global Warming / Climate Change scam and the Covid-19 Lockdown scam know they are lying. Note also how many global “leaders” quickly linked the two scams, stating ”to solve one we have to solve the other”- utter nonsense, not even plausible enough to be specious.
Regarding the sheep, especially those who inhabit our universities and governments: The sheep are well-described in this essay by Nassim Nicholas Taleb as “Intellectual-Yet-Idiot” or IYI – IYI’s hold the warmist views as absolute truths, without ever having spent significant effort to investigate them. The false warmist narrative fitted their negative worldview, and they never seriously questioned it by examining the contrary evidence.
Climate science has nothing to do with Marxism, this Marxist totalitarian “Great Reset” is imaginary and you do the debate on climate science no service by dragging your political beliefs into the discussion.
Of course you’d say that, griff.
The griffter will say whatever his church leaders tell him to say. If he was rational or intelligent he would be promoting a rapid buildout of nuclear power to prevent an increase in CO2!
Since climate alarmism has absolutely nothing to do with the wholly beneficial molecule which is causing our planet to green and crop yields to soar; he tries to obfuscate by arguing about the extent of Marxism in the alarmist movement! If there wasn’t a massive base of Marxism in the environmental movement why are the solutions to both global warming and global cooling exactly the same?
Griffter, if your solution to every problem is destroy capitalism and place everything under government control you ARE a Marxist! Try studying some geology or other hard science for a while; that socialist science seems to be rotting your brain!
It becomes more obvious every day griff? Are you blind?
America’s infrastructure was built by local and state governments along with private investors. And yet now, the federal government wants to usurp all infrastructure under their control. Why? It’s a nationalization of our infrastructure hidden behind false claims of alarm!
Not a single water treatment plant where I live, not a single sewer treatment plant, not a single sewer system, not a single street, not a single storm drain system, not a single city water dam – nothing was ever built by the federal government. 99.9% of our farm-to-market roads and highways were built by the county and state governments.
This whole climate scare is just one more tactic for the federal government to exert power over the populace in its never-ending drive to create a Marxist state in America.
About the only infrastructure the Federal Government originally built was Eisenhower’s Interstate Highway System and a few dirt roads/paths to the forest fire towers.
Interstates highways were built by states, mostly paid for by federal funds.
Now Hoover dam was paid for by a loan from the federal government but built under contract, not by directly employed federal workers.
Actually, Griff, one only need read any of the UN IPCC ‘reports’ to see that are couched in Marxist and intersectional shibboleths. Please direct me to any CliSci material that promotes capitalist, free market solutions to any of their imagined climate crises.
ANOTHER LOAD OF DELIBERATE LIES from griff-LIAR
No-one can be so WILFULLY BLIND except by PRETENSE.
Marxists have used the warming cycle for all they can mange to try to force through their putrid anti-human agenda.
The protracted cooling over the next several years will show this AGW scam for exactly what it is, and they are getting DESPERATE.
Don’t wory griff, no matter what happens, idiotic AGW shills and sympathisers like you will ALWAYS be at the bottom of the human ladder.
The bottom of the ladder will just be deeper into the sewer.
Here are videos of Prince Charles and Justin Trudeau extolling the World Economic Forum’s “Great Reset”. These are just two examples of world leaders parroting this Marxist nonsense. I also recall John Kerry saying that Biden was on board, and the Pope spewing the same extremist screed. I have no time to locate those videos – any else interested in finding them, and others?
PRINCE CHARLES EXTOLLING THE GREAT RESET – VIDEO
https://videos.dailymail.co.uk/video/mol/2020/06/03/9141787644365654648/640x360_MP4_9141787644365654648.mp4
‘THE TIME TO ACT IS NOW’: PRINCE CHARLES URGES BUSINESSES TO SEE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC AS A ‘GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY’ AS HE LAUNCHES ‘GREAT RESET PROJECT’ TO HELP INDUSTRIES ‘REBUILD’ IN A SUSTAINABLE WAY
Daily Mail, 3 June 2020
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-8384549/Prince-Charles-launches-Great-Reset-project-amid-coronavirus-pandemic.html
The Prince of Wales has urged businesses to seize the ‘golden opportunity’ of the coronavirus pandemic to rebuild in a sustainable and green way as he launched The Great Reset Project.
Prince Charles, 71, who is currently isolating at his Aberdeenshire home of Birkhall, joined the World Economic Forum’s virtual Covid Action Platform meeting to unveil the initiative, which is designed to ensure businesses ‘build back better’ as they begin to recover from the crisis.
The prince, who has been championing environmental causes for decades, stressed the need not to miss the chance for a green recovery and a more sustainable future, urging people to ‘think big and act now’.
Speaking from his home in Scotland, Prince Charles said: ‘We have a golden opportunity to seize something good from this crisis.’
The Prince of Wales, 71, has urged businesses to seize the ‘golden opportunity’ of the coronavirus pandemic to rebuild in a sustainable and green way as he launched The Great Reset Project
‘Its unprecedented shockwaves may well make people more receptive to big visions of change, and global crises like pandemics and climate change know no borders, and highlight just how interdependent we are as one people sharing one planet.
‘Over the past month or so, despite the ongoing crisis, I’ve been encouraged to see the growing calls for a green recovery.’
He added: ‘As we move from rescue to recovery, therefore, we have a unique but rapidly shrinking window of opportunity to learn lessons and reset ourselves on a more sustainable path.
‘It is an opportunity we have never had before and may never have again.
The royal has encouraged industries to relaunch in a sustainable way and ‘reset’ in a voiceover for a short film which accompanied the launch of the project
‘So we must use all the levers we have at our disposal, knowing that each and every one of us has a vital role to play.’
In a video, which was shared across Clarence House’s Instagram pages, a voiceover said: ‘The current global crisis has disturbed every aspect of our lives.
‘But it has also presented us with an extraordinary opportunity to reset and improve the state of our world.’
____________________________________
JUSTIN TRUDEAU EXTOLLING THE GREAT RESET – VIDEO
https://twitter.com/i/status/1327992732657258497
Justin Trudeau calling the coronavirus pandemic an opportunity for a reset as per the WEF, and parroting the ‘build back better’ line which Biden just so happened to use as a campaign slogan.
Must all be a coincidence and not at all coordinated.
– Jonathan Witt
@Jonathan_Witt
Trudeau has since disclaimed his own video, calling it a “Conspiracy Theory”.
Right-o!
(Actually, Extreme Left-o – Trudeau is a Harpo Marxist)
The John Kerry (Biden is on board) video is included below.
History – I published this warning in September 2019, before Trudeau was re-elected. Told you so – over one year ago.
Regards, Allan MacRae
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/12/12/canadas-trudeau-promises-massive-carbon-tax-rise/#comment-3145314
Justin Trudeau, a man of no education and no life achievements, somehow believes he suddenly has the intellect and foresight to lead his nation into the Great Reset – the Brave New World of Neo-Marxism. The Great Reset means Trudeau as absolute monarch, the Little Prince surrounded by his rich cronies, and the rest of Canadians subsisting as poor peasants living only to serve him – the old Chinese Communist Party model.
TRUDEAU AND THE NEW WORLD ORDER:
Video: https://twitter.com/i/status/1327657048415334400
TRUDEAU GIVES AWAY THE GAME: SAYS PANDEMIC IS OPPORTUNITY FOR “RESET”
spencerfernando.com/2020/11/15/trudeau-gives-away-the-game-says-pandemic-is-opportunity-for-reset/
Former U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has assured the elites of the World Economic Forum (WEF) that a Joe Biden presidency would quickly advance the globalist “Great Reset” agenda “with greater speed and greater intensity than many might imagine.”
THE GREAT RESET: BUILDING FUTURE RESILIENCE TO GLOBAL RISKS
weforum.org/agenda/2020/11/the-great-reset-building-future-resilience-to-global-risks/
Justin Trudeau certainly did not campaign on this platform, and neither did Joe Biden. TREASON is the order of the day.
Trudeau and much of the establishment Canadian media have called the Great Reset a “conspiracy theory”, despite the clear evidence in Trudeau’s own video, cited above. Blatant lying is the leftists’ only core competence.
TRUDEAU CALLS GREAT RESET A “CONSPIRACY THEORY,” DESPITE IT BEING MENTIONED IN OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT DOCUMENTS AND HIS OWN STATEMENTS
spencerfernando.com/2020/11/24/trudeau-calls-great-reset-a-conspiracy-theory-despite-it-being-mentioned-in-official-government-documents-and-his-own-statements/
When I tried to warn Canada of his covert plans before the 2019 election, Trudeau’s “bought” Canadian press refused to print my exposé of his secret Marxist plot. Trudeau bought the loyalty of the financially-strapped Canadian press with a $600 million bribe.
TOLD YOU SO, ONE YEAR AGO: Here is my warning, published more than one year ago in Fall 2019, before the Canadian election.
THE RADICAL GREEN ROAD TO VENEZUELA – POVERTY, MISERY AND DICTATORSHIP
September 20, 2019 – My original article – By Allan M.R. MacRae, B.A.Sc., M.Eng.,
wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09/20/the-radical-green-road-to-venezuela-poverty-misery-and-dictatorship/
THE LIBERALS’ COVERT GREEN PLAN FOR CANADA – POVERTY AND DICTATORSHIP
October 1, 2019 – My subsequent article, edited with a Financial Post former editor, but then not published in that paper.
wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/01/the-liberals-covert-green-plan-for-canada-poverty-and-dictatorship/
Repeating from my previous posts:
If Biden wins, there will never be another honest election in the USA – vote-rigging will continue and it will be the end of freedom. Europe and Canada have already fallen far down that “poverty road to Venezuela”. If America falls, there will be nowhere left to run to.
______________________________________________
As usual, you are one the wrong path.
Climate is just a means to an end, to get control, to ruin the economy and the so called capitalism etc. The climate doesn’t interest at all.
I doubt you’d know science, climate or otherwise, if it bit you from the derrière. You just parrot the rubbish spewed out by the likes of bbc, the Guardian, etc.
A Great Reset has been under discussion by many leftists for several years. You pretending not is just comical. Par for the course with you.
Griff
You do the debate on climate change no service by dragging your religious beliefs into the discussion.
Funny that
Actually, I think the Chinese have taking over the bribery of GanGreen from the Russians! They also seem to be hard at work destroying our school systems with their anti-whiteness and other woke-inanity! I was shocked to learn that I am a racist if I show my work when I’m doing math problems like cutting rafters or stair treads! Who knew!!
Even the most insane ideas are taken seriously by the radical Left.
The socialists/racists in our schools are teaching our white elementary school students that they should hate themselves and should feel guilty for things they had nothing to do with.
Children are not born as racists, they have to be taught to be racists. And that’s what is being taught in American schools today. Division is the name of the game for the radical Democrats.
When you introduce UNRELIABLE supplies like wind and solar into your grid…
… and remove RELIABLE supplies like coal…
… and don’t look after what RELIABLE supplies you have still got left …
What do expect to happen when the grid is put under pressure. !
“people are paying catastrophic electricity bills”
I have heard some wild stories about the costs of electricity in Texas going sky-high for just average folks.
One writer claimed if you fully charged a Tesla in Texas it would have cost you $900.
Letting people who can not successfully find a real job in the real world run, well, anything, is a disaster. We are reaping what we have allowed these idiots to sow.
We have to remember that at the time when the political class could have hardened their infrastructure against cold, we were told that the earth was undergoing unprecedented global warming. We were told that snow would be a thing of the past. We were told that the Arctic would be ice free by September 2013. We were told by the experts and we had to believe science. If any member of the political class would have suggested several years ago that the infrastructure Should be hardened to protect against cold temperatures, they would have been ridiculed, mocked and likely run out of office. We believe the global warming science back then. We see the results now.
Also notice that CliSci only mentions climate change causing cold events after the event?
I don’t do twitter. The link came from elsewhere so if the mods want to delete, its okay.
https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1362850893708857350
Ya, it always seems like 2030 is some kind of magical year for the Marxists. Many EU countries are banning fossil fuel cars by 2030, GM and Ford plan to be fully electric at 2030, China gets a pass to pollute freely until 2030, of course there’s the UNs Agenda 2030, and Klaus Schwab wants total global Marxist rule by 2030.
What’s the big deal about the year 2030 ?
“What’s the big deal about the year 2030 ?”
Well, in the field* of numerology, 2030 reduces to the fundamental number 5. Here are some of the negative traits associated with the number 5:
“rash, irresponsible, inconsistent, unreliable, thoughtless, non-committal, inactivity, stagnation, rigid in thought, lacks vitality.”
—source: http://numerology-thenumbersandtheirmeanings.blogspot.com/p/numerology-indexnumbers.html
*Please note that I intentionally did not say “scientific field”, so go easy, OK ;-))
On Agenda 2030 I don’t think anyone can seriously argue against:
(I would have added “clean water” but that’s by the by)
The issue with the statement is how the hell do we pay for it whilst squandering $Trillions on “fixing” the climate. Besides this, we all know what that statement really means and it ain’t ending poverty and hunger everywhere.
Here’s the kicker
How do they plan to do that? I would guess that around 90% of the people who are going to be alive in 2030, are alive right now.
If the people who are alive today aren’t interested in their notion of a “peaceful, just and inclusive” society, how are they going to convince them in just 9 years?
Graveyards are generally very peaceful
“What you mean we, white man?”
Those who make statements such as “Agenda 2030” are the same ones who order large numbers of people be placed upon large ground transports and delivered to facilities where they can be instructed in how to accept the dictats of their betters.
“What’s the big deal about the year 2030 ?”
Well, for one thing, many (if not most) of us here will be dead. With the impact of COVID, the average life-expectancy at birth of American males is now down to less then 78 years. With our passing, the memory of the false claims, and the collective knowledge of our generation, will be gone as well.
“the average life-expectancy”
I’ve seen these reports about the average life-expectancy going down a little bit due to the Wuhan virus epidemic, but I question whether this has any real meaning to our current lives.
If we get over the pandemic, then the life expectancy will rise.
Did you see where Dr. Marty M. says we will reach “Herd Immunity” from the Wuhan virus by April? New cases have dropped by 75 percent over the last weeks.
Wouldn’t that be nice if he was right!
“What’s the big deal about the year 2030 ?”
Perhaps Hollywood is working on a sequel to “2012”?
“China gets a pass to pollute freely until 2030”
China gets a pass beyond 2030, if they want one. The agreement allows the Chicoms to decide if they need to do more or not, after the year 2030. My guess is they will decide they have done enough.
By that time I think the whole scam will be exposed and there won’t be a requirement to reduce CO2 anymore.
Obama/Biden/Kerry gave Chicom Dictator Xi a sweetheart deal to come into the Paris Accord in the first place, which allowed him to increase his CO2 production unfettered through 2030, just so they could say they had the Chicoms on board.
That’s typical Obama/Biden/Kerry deal making. They gave the same kind of sweetheart deal to the Mad Mullahs of Iran which supposedly prevented the Mad Mullahs from developing nuclear weapons, but would end up allowing them to do so. That’s why Trump pulled out of the deal. It wasn’t worth the paper it was written on.
But Obama/Biden/Kerry wanted a deal, more than anything else, a photo op, if you will, and so they made a very bad deal to accomplish that goal. Now the idiot Biden is back negotiating with the Mad Mullahs. Obama and Biden, they sure do love them some Iranian terrorists, don’t they.
I wonder if ole Joe thinks the Muslim “Call to Prayer’ is the most wonderful sound in the world, as Obama does?
Kerry is nuts- he says we’ll see a 3.7 deg F rise in temperatures. Completely nuts. So, when he destroys the economy, I wonder if he’ll still get $700 haircuts! Probably.
I think we ought to start by putting windmills off the shore of Kerry’s favorite surfing and boating areas.
Ja. It is simple. Really. It is globally cooling. Not warming.
National Climate Assessment Chapter 23 : Southern Great Plains
Climate change is expected to lead to an increase in average temperatures as well as frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme heat events and a reduction in extreme cold events.
Office of the Texas State Climatologist, ASSESSMENT of HISTORIC and FUTURE TRENDS of EXTREME WEATHER IN TEXAS, 1900-2036
Trends in extreme cold are much larger than trends in extreme heat, which is leading to an overall decrease in the range of annual temperature extremes over time.
[…]
Meanwhile, the expected warming of extreme wintertime temperatures would make typical wintertime extremes by 2036 milder than all but five of the winters in the historic record.21 Also, trends in extreme temperatures in urban areas are generally as large or larger than those in rural areas, so that extreme heat is an increasing large risk in urban areas and extreme cold is an increasingly remote one.
https://climatexas.tamu.edu/products/texas-extreme-weather-report/ClimateReport-NOV2036-2.pdf
All settled until something happens, like now in Texas, and then it’s claimed global warming theory predicted it.
What I said: Predicting cold only after the fact. Until then, all CliSci publications say ‘hot, hotter, hottest, extreme hot, etc.’
Meanwhile, the global temperatures are falling. They are not getting hotter and hotter and hotter, even though CO2 continues to increase at a steady rate. Warmth and CO2 seem to be going in opposite directions. Again (1940 to 1980).
Not a huge fan of ZH anymore but this is good.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cascend-data-shows-wind-power-was-chief-culprit-texas-grid-collapse
It isn’t. It is utter nonsense. The actual gas plant failed, not as a result of anything to do with wind
Griff, one must use logic when following long causal chains. Ignoring critical links gets one into financial and health risks.
You become and OUT and OUT LIAR, griff
DELIBERATE LIES are all you have left.
GAS CARRIED THE DAY
Wind and solar, nowhere to be seen.
Data means absolutely NOTHING to your fetid agw cultism, does it. !
The one BIG thing the guy forgot because he also has “ACDS”
(ANTI-CO2 derangement syndrome)
BRING BACK SOLID RELIABLE COAL
Possibly Griff is a Carbon Unhinged Never Trumper?
OK, now that right there is funny.
What is it with griffters that makes unable to stop lying!
Between February 8 and February 16 natural gas generation was up 450% in Texas! At the same time wind generation was DOWN 93%!
Gas generation could have higher if there had not been problems with extraction and distribution due to the infrastructure not being winterized. A part of that problem was relying on electric pumps for pipelines that were installed to be more ‘green’ when the old gas-powered ones would have worked fine! The drop off in nuclear was also caused by cooling systems not being winterized; a problem that is easily corrected
Coal and nuclear need to be a MUCH LARGER percentage of the grid.
They were maxed out basically for 4 days, but were too small a contribution to do carry the load.
Coal and Nuclear should be carrying most of the base-load, with mandated use for efficiency
Any grid that mandates the use of UNRELIABLE sources is bound to have problems when put under stress.
Wrong yet again, even ERCOT admits what actually happened. Please do continue to lie, it is rather entertaining watching people smack you about.
Wait a minute….Dr. Beel Gates sez the wimdmills are not to blame….seems there are windmills that can operate in cold but Texas did not have that type.
Isn’t it great when really big thinkers can recognize unintended consequences only after the fact?
There are windmills that can operate in cold temperatures, although it is a question in my mind about how well they operate. I think there is probably a certain level, or kind, of severe weather that would stop any windmill. But I don’t know that for sure.
One thing I do know for sure is that sometimes the wind doesn’t blow for days, and windmills won’t work under those conditions, so depending on windmills for your base load electricty is a gamble you are going to lose at some time or another, and as we see, losing this bet is *very* costly. The current estimate of the cost of the blackouts in Texas is $50 billion. Just think what the costs would be if the entire State were blackedout for a month.
Windmills have a fatal flaw: They depend on the weather, and that does not work reliably.
Windmills and solar can not power the world. They cannot be depended on. That’s the bottom line.
“Some climate scientists argue CO2 induced “Arctic Amplification” causing warmer polar temperatures which increased the jet stream’s waviness.”
CO2 does not cause any significant warming. The surface-atmosphere boundary physics prevents it. When CO2 absorbs solar induced surface radiation and redirects it back to the surface the heat capacity of the surface minimizes the warming. This is due to the fact the surface has a heat capacity over 1000 times greater than the atmosphere. It essentially reduces the greenhouse effect by a factor of 1000.
The CO2 warming effect claimed to be 1.2 C per doubling is really 0.001 C.
Just took this photo of the 18 acre solar “farm” next to my ‘hood in Orange, MA. It’s buried under snow. By 2050 we’ll have a few hundred thousand acres of such “farms” in Massachusetts- to deliver “clean and green dependable energy”. Though, I used to see coyotes on this site and often heard whippoorwills and rufous-sided towhees from my home- just beyond the tree line. Not anymore. This “farm” is only 8 years old but they’re already replacing panels. I wonder how much power it’s producing when buried under a foot of snow?
Joe
That Rufus sided Towhee looks like a Robin breaking into Fort Knox.
“clean and green energy” is suppossed to also be good for saving biodiversity- it’s not true regarding this solar “farm”
The site had been a gravel pit but about half of it had grown back to pitch and white pine- despite all topsoil having been removed. Another species I saw there prior to the solar installation was the box turtle which is an endangered species in Mass. It’s also right next to several vernal pools and a river. The state is rather fanatic when it comes to protecting wetlands and rare species- if you’re a developer or if the site is to have a forestry project- but, when it comes to solar “farms”- the state lets them get away with everything.
In fact solar panels work well in snow, diffuse light can still penetrate a thin layer of snow, plus additional light will be reflected from the thicker snow on the ground. In addition the snow will keep the panels cool. In some cases they even work better. go look it up!
ROTFLMAO
But it’s not a thin layer of snow. Since you’ve got a thought on this YOU look it up and give us links. Thin layer, maybe- but not several inches. Each solar farm should have it’s own web link giving its power production in real time- then we can track them during the day and during bad weather.
Solar panels don’t generate electricity from the bottom side! Light reflected from the ground hits the underside of the panels.
For Pete’s sake man, do you *ever* think before posting?
Besides, solar panels work best on direct sunlight. Anything that diffuses light causes less of it to directly impact the solar panel. It’s based on the cosine of the impacting angle. So a solar panel being hit with diffuse light does *NOT* work well, it might continue to work but the output will be significantly degraded.
Griff? Think? Nah.
What is the definition of a thin layer of snow?
In my experience, a bedroom with a couple of Velux roof windows, more than an inch or two of snow cuts out the majority of sunlight. Add to that we’re talking winter which means fewer hours of daylight, and if it’s snowing that means clouds.
So how more efficient are solar panels in -20’C than in +40’C? What implications does that have for Texan summers?
Griff, you ignorant slut. [If SNL can say it, I can say it!]
I hope that was a lame attempt at humor, otherwise we might be witnessing the dumbest comment in the history of the world.
with the angle of winter sun you’d be lucky to get 10 watts output from a 100 watt panel at noon to begin with at 40 degrees latitude . .I have a 1kw solar array . just curious , do you have any solar power .? real world experience is very instructive .
Griff is not allowed to bring solar panels in his mom’s basement
Let’s start with the absorption spectrum for PV panels:
And then consider the reflection spectrum for snow:
http://www.eumetrain.org/data/3/358/media/images/Fig_1_1_spectrum.jpg
it is obvious that most of the wavelengths used by solar panels are reflected by snow, severely impacting the output, even with a thin layer. In fact, just one inch is enough to get the albedo up to 80%.
For a more detailed exploration, looking at different types of snow, look at this paper:
https://www.igsoc.org/journal/53/181/j06j041.pdf
IDAU
Thanks, very useful for me anyway. I doubt Griff will look though.
And even if griff will try to read it…..
And how much sunsine was there over that period?
griff’s mind lives in a ACDS driven haze of gross ignorance.
Your DELIBERATE IDIOTIC LIES are getting more and more DESPERATE, griff-loony
Not even ACDS as deep as yours can account for such a moronic clown act.
Here is the performance of solar in ERCOT over the past fortnight. Snow cover severely impacted output.
What do you smoke, griff, I want that too !
Careful, such mental hallcinogenics can cause a deep-seated mental disease called ACDS.
You don’t want that.!
One guy is making money off of solar in MA…he’s on Youtube….his solar panels were likely subsidized and he has like a 20 foot pole device to clean off the snow from his 2 story house roof….his money likely comes from Youtube….but everyone can’t make Youtube videos….and MA is too far north for solar efficiency. What a racket!
I saw an article about Elon Musk’s solar panel roofing, and there was a video of a house that had Musk’s roofing on it, sitting among many others in a housing addition, and all the roofs were covered in snow except for the one that used Musk’s roofing.
Apparently, the solar roofing has heaters in them that can melt the snow and ice, but i don’t know much about it or what is really involved.
They are building more of them here in Alberta one that covers 6 square miles of prairie and has nominal 560mw rating
Meaning in January it might produce 25mw at noon on a clear day
Beyond useless
Where are the solar panels? 🙂
Also note they are tilted for summer collection. So not only does output fall dramatically in winter, snow shedding is inhibited.
Guess this is as good a place as any to post this. Online linked article below of reports relating how cold it was in Texas on several occasions back in the 19th century….
http://www.texasescapes.com/MikeCoxTexasTales/Remembering-When-it-Really-Got-Cold.htm
Galveston Bay, winter of 1821…
“..When a particularly cold norther blew in, it snowed. As the temperature continued to plummet, the snow froze and so did all but the deeper water of Galveston Bay. Not only was this a sight to behold, it was actually good news for the three female residents of the peninsula.
The icy water stunned the marine life in the bay, particularly the tasty red drum, speckled trout and flounder. Mrs. Long and her slave harvested several barrels of fish, enough to feed them for a good while.
So solidly frozen was the bay that at one point, Mrs. Long saw a large bear amble over to the island from the mainland. Likely, as was Mrs. Long, the bear was out “fishing” when she spotted him. Whether the animal made it back to the mainland before the bay thawed is not known. — ..”
***
February, 1899..
“…[W]hat happened during the second and third weeks of February 1899 is well documented. On February 11, a huge mass of Arctic air blustered into Texas. The temperature hit 23 degrees below zero in Tulia, which meant it was probably even a few degrees colder than that in Dalhart.
Like a runaway locomotive pulling only refrigerator cars, the cold air swept over the entire state. Moving from northwest to south, on February 12-14 (the dates varying with the progression of the cold front) Abilene dropped to -23; Denison reached -16; Fort Worth–Dallas saw -10 degrees, Waco -5, Austin -1 and San Antonio -4. (Children enjoyed skating on the frozen San Antonio River.) On the border at Laredo the mercury remained above zero, but only by 5 degrees. Corpus Christi dropped to 11 degrees, Brownsville experienced a 12 degree low and Galveston chilled to 8 degrees.
Much of Galveston Bay froze, (as did part of Corpus Christi Bay to the south)…”
***
If the climate alarmists wish to argue that CO2-induced climate change produced the deep freeze that Texas and much of the rest of the country is emerging from this month, they will need to explain these events from the 1800’s in Texas. Religion by any other name….
Thanks!
Jim,
Once again I want to thank you for another interesting post. I find myself rereading ‘Landscapes and Cycles’ regularly for ammunition to use in arguments and discussions with alarmists! There are only two other things I want to say to you:
Bravo! Encore!
And I’m guessing that not one of the contemporary reports called these events UNPRECEDENTED?
Alarmists just love that word ‘unprecedented’ don’t they?
I am waiting patiently for one of them to call this latest deep freeze “unprecedented” before I direct them to the web page article I linked to in my comment above.
Thank you sir for a very lucid explanation of the jet stream, its impacting factors, and the impact on weather.
If only our politicians would listen to actual science instead of religious dogma.
What Texas needs is more Solar power to get us through these sudden cold snaps, where we do not see the Sun for days and snow blankets everything.
Honestly, this “Aleutian Low” hypothesis sounds a lot more credible than most explanations, but in the end it doesn’t really matter WHY we get these Arctic cold blasts, only that we design to get safely through them.
The first step would be to stop building more intermittent power sources and to ignore their so-called “generating capacity” in order to figure out the number of reliable power plants (and capacity) we need for peak demand. We then need to improve the base-load power plants so they can can run some number of days without an outside source of fuel (stockpile fuel at the plant). Then fix the distribution of fuel so that it can survive an arctic blast.
Once all of this is done, we can safely start dismantling the wind turbines and solar power farm – send them to areas in Africa and South Asia where they have no power and intermittent is an improvement, not a detriment to living conditions.
What Texas needs is more Solar power to get us through these sudden cold snaps, where we do not see the Sun for days and snow blankets everything.
Good idea griff can work with, more pannels and the same amount of snow on an increased surface reduces the thickness of the covering snow for producing some mW more than zero 😀 😀 😀
It never was about climate…
Thanks Jim.
Somehow I don’t people are going to get this type of education from CNN, NPR, NYT, LAT, and HuffPo.
People don’t get educated listening to them, they get brainwashed.
I bet the general public gets as much brainwashing nowadays, as people in communist re-education camps. Relentless lies and distortions of reality 24 hours a day by the Leftwing Media.
There’s never been a propaganda show like it. Maybe the Chicoms come close.
Texas needs ng fired hot water boilers to keep the windmills and solar panels from freezing
“The natural quasi‑permanent Aleutian Low nearly explains it all.”
Not “all”. Most oceanic heat advected into the Arctic appears to enter from the Atlantic.
“The results show that ocean heat transport differences across the five climate states are dominated by heat transport changes in the Nordic Seas, although in the warmest climate state heat transport through the Bering Strait plays an almost equally important role.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-019-04824-y
Loydo, For once we sort of agree. Of course the Aleutian Low does not explain “all” that’s why I said it only explains nearly “all”. Indeed more warm Atlantic water enters the Arctic vs a more narrow Bering Strait. I wrote about that nearly 10 years ago regarding lost Arctic sea ice, Dansgaard-Oeschger event, etc. Please, try to keep up.
http://landscapesandcycles.net/antarctic-sea-ice–climate-change-indicator.html
There are 2 quasi low pressure systems in the Northern Hemisphere: Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low. They both play similar roles in transporting both warmth northward into the Arctic and upwards into the stratosphere and both gain strength in the winter along with the vortex. However there has also been an observed “see saw” between the two. Too many un-needed details to explain all the effects.
Nonetheless, regarding the wavy North American jet stream and most recent cold snap, I was addressing just the Aleutian Low is most relevant. To minimize the words for this article that will get published in newspapers, diving into the weeds regards the added effects of the Icelandic low and intruding warm Atlantic water would be overwhelming to readers.
The Aleutian Low is usually the most critical payer. If you look at the weather during the 2007 “record” Northern Hemisphere cold snaps, you will see the warm water intrusions into the Chukchi sea simultaneously reduced sea ice in the western Arctic while weakening the vortex.
https://www.weather.gov/cae/April8Freeze.html
Is there a solar factor to changes in the NAO cycle which causes it to enter its cool phase? I found myself wondering the other morning if the angle of incoming light on the ocean’s surface can change enough to cause either a rise or a reduction in temps on surface waters in the Atlantic.
The warm phase would mean excess heat in the oceans would be above the arctic’s ability to shed heat. While the opposite would hold true in the cool phase where the Arctic thermostat action would cause global cooling because it would be shedding more heat out of the Arctic than the sun is adding into the ocean? Especially on the Atlantic side. Could that occur because of changes in the angle of incoming solar radiation either causing more absorption of the sun’s energy by the oceans, or less absorption into the Atlantic and/or Pacific waters?
ps: related to that thought is there a phase where solar radiation strikes land surfaces at a great rate versus striking water surfaces? Aside from the normal seasonal changes. I recall where some have pointed out that the Earth/Sun relationship is always varying slightly over time.
Regarding solar effects and the Arctic, I think the sun plays more of an indirect role on short time scales but the mechanisms are not very clear cut. When solar insolation (generously) increases by ~2 W/m2 through a sunspot cycle, that extra energy might not add much in terms of direct heating. During an equinox, the equator would receive the full increase, but it could be counter-balanced by increased evaporation and latent heat loss or more clouds offsetting the insolation. Concurrently the poles would receive next to nothing extra.
There is a big solar impact on the temperature gradient. Hemispheric insolation changes are more than 50 times greater between seasonal changes than. Poleward transport increases in the summer sphere and ocean transport inertia continues into the autumn season after the sun migrates back toward an equinox.
Meehl compared averaged poleward ocean heat transport with average increased insolation during several sunspot cycles. He detected a sunspot effect but the evidence was not obvious if just a single cycle was analyzed. There are some studies connecting the sun and NAO, but many factors affect the NAO, especially the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation
Chylek (2008) reported “Arctic warming from 1910–1940 proceeded at a significantly faster rate than the current 1970–2008 warming” and Arctic temperature changes are highly correlated with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation. That suggests a solar connection with the AMO as irradiance was increasing during and peaking the early half of the 20th century.
However there are many factors to consider. While temperature gradients induce poleward heat transport, there are other factors. The expansion and contraction of the subpolar gyre modulates how much Atlantic heat enters the Arctic and how much is deflected back equatorward. It’s not clear how much insolation affects that dynamic. Changes in the ITCZ affect cross-equatorial ocean heat. On glacial time scales, the orbital obliquity cycle (41 K years) doesn’t add heat but increases summer heating would have affected the ITCZ and increase poleward flow of tropical heated ocean currents.
This bit is interesting as was the rest of your comment “He detected a sunspot effect but the evidence was not obvious if just a single cycle was analyzed.”.
I have always viewed temp records as showing 30+ year patterns of warm or cool trends. That brings up the puzzle though of what would be the mechanism that is causing those periodic shifts. I assume that it partly has to be related to changes in ocean patterns, but what causes such changes in ocean temps then. So the idea of the oceans taking in less energy on average over a period of time as compared to a warm trend came to mind. A thirty plus year cycle would fit in with multiple solar cycles (3) being the first step in causing the shift. The question remaining what is that doing to cause the suspected cycle?
Also. I was thinking of the AMO versus the NAO when I made the initial comment. A recent viewing of the solar butterfly history added fuel to my thoughts. I had never really considered what that history was showing, but looking at the Wiki page recently which displays most of that history put a new perspective on the solar connection. It looks obvious to me that the ramping up of the sunspot count to the peak in the 1950s would have much to do with what we see happen to global temps.
Which just happens to be cooling rapidly .. Poor Loy-dodo
Sheesh, how many times do we have to say it? Jet stream meandering increases during solar minima, which we are now in. Remember the last solar minimum eleven years ago? In 2010 we had the UK entirely white with snow in a sat pic, the Great Moscow heat wave occurred with the accompanying Pakistan floods. There were many jet stream blocking events.
But the thermageddonists can’t admit the Sun is doing it because people might think the Sun does other stuff too, like cause most of the warming last century. Can’t have that.
Meandering is not increasing.
“we find no evidence of long-term changes in waviness despite on-going Arctic warming.”
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200219152855.htm
Headline on fake news.
“<b>Texas Crisis Exposes a Vulnerability to Climate Change</b>”
It was snow and low temperatures you idiots!
“Some climate scientists argue CO2 induced “Arctic Amplification” causing warmer polar temperatures which increased the jet stream’s waviness.”
The consensus of IPCC circulation models predict a less wavy jet stream because they predict increasingly positive Arctic Oscillation conditions, which is why they didn’t predict the rapid post 1995 Arctic warming.
https://archive.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-3-5-6.html
Good post. One of these days we’re going to have to get together over coffee or something. Maybe in the next few months as this pandemic winds down. Haven’t been getting your wayy much for the past year.
The article is confusing from the start, since it opens speaking about a “vortex” without distinguishing the stratospheric and tropospheric vortices which show up later on in a chart. Lay persons such as myself think of the polar vortex which brings cold air down south. When the author talks about “the vortex” weakening rather than strengthening as had been predicted, it is rather confusing. Why then do we have these polar vortex outbreaks, with frigid air in Texas? When he says, “Stratospheric warming increased and the vortex weakened despite CO2‑caused cooling,” I suppose he is talking about the stratospheric vortex, not the one that brings cold air south. Do we know why the stratosphere warmed despite the CO2?