Guest essay by Eric Worrall
The good news is the new mutant HS69/V70 Covid-19 strain does not appear to be more lethal, and the vaccine is expected to be effective against the new variant. But it does appear to be more easily passed on – the new virus is spreading despite UK efforts to impose a strict lockdown.
The new strain appears to be rapidly dominating other strains in the UK terms of prevalence.
The CDC is not currently recommending travel restrictions, though they recommend extreme caution when travelling to the UK. Fauci is advising everyone not to overreact.
The following is an interview with Matt Hancock, UK Health Secretary;
The following is a graph provided by Tony Cox, CEO, NIHR National Biosample Centre and the Milton Keynes “Lighthouse” Coronavirus Testing Mega-Lab, showing the new variant Covid-19 (orange) rapidly displacing other strains in terms of prevalence in the UK population.
The following has just been published on the British government health website.
COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2): information about the new virus variant
The new variant transmits more easily than the previous one but there is no evidence that it is more likely to cause severe disease or mortality.
Published 20 December 2020
From:Public Health EnglandMain points
Data from Whole Genome Sequencing, epidemiology and modelling suggest the new variant ‘VUI – 202012/01’ (the first Variant Under Investigation in December 2020) transmits more easily than other variants.
We currently have no evidence that the variant is more likely to cause severe disease or mortality – but we are continuing investigations to understand this better.
The way to control this virus is the same, whatever the variant. It will not spread if we avoid close contact with others. Wash your hands, wear a mask, keep your distance from others, and reduce your social contacts.
Is there any evidence that the variant is more serious?
We currently have no evidence that this variant causes more severe disease or higher mortality – but we continue to study cases to understand this better. We know that mortality is a lagging indicator and we will need to continually monitor this over the coming weeks.
Why is this more transmissible?
We know that mutations in the spike protein, the part of the virus that makes it infectious, can change how the virus interacts with human cells. However, we do not yet know the mechanism for this increase in transmission.
The evidence shows that infection rates in geographical areas where this particular variant has been circulating have increased faster than expected, and the modelling evidence has demonstrated that this variant has a higher transmission rate than other variants in current circulation.
How long has this variant been in circulation?
All viruses mutate over time and new variants emerge regularly.
Backwards tracing using the genetic evidence suggests this variant emerged in September 2020 and then circulated at very low levels in the population until mid-November.
The increase in cases linked to the new variant first came to light in late November when PHE was investigating why infection rates in Kent were not falling despite national restrictions. We then discovered a cluster linked to this variant spreading rapidly into London and Essex.
Evidence of increased transmissibility was provided to NERVTAG and ministers on December 18.
Is this variant resistant to the Pfizer vaccine?
There is currently no evidence to suggest that the Pfizer vaccine would not protect people against the new variant.
Further laboratory work is currently being undertaken as a priority to understand this.
How widespread is the variant geographically?
144 Lower Tier Local Authorities have identified at least 1 case genomically, although the vast majority of cases identified are in London, the South East and the East of England.
Can tests detect this new variant?
Labs have been issued with guidance to adapt processes to ensure that PCR tests can detect this variant.
PCR tests can be adapted rapidly to respond to the new variant.
Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-sars-cov-2-information-about-the-new-virus-variant
So far there are no US plans to impose UK travel restrictions.
… In a Monday interview with CNN, Fauci, who also serves as a member of the White House coronavirus task force, said that the United States should “without a doubt keep an eye” on the new strain, but “we don’t want to overreact.” …
Read more: https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/12/21/anthony-fauci-doesnt-want-to-restrict-u-k-flights-dont-overreact-to-mutated-coronavirus-strain/
The new strain does not appear to be more lethal – so we are still only talking about a low mortality risk for most people.
But the ease with which the new strain can apparently be transmitted, and its apparent ability to defeat very strict UK lockdowns in my opinion makes harsh lockdowns much more difficult to justify.
The new strain may significantly increase the risk of exposure for the elderly and infirm, and therefore would appear to increase the urgency of rolling out vaccines to vulnerable people.
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Are we to assume that the prior variant(s) are under control? It’s funny how everything they do makes the situation worse.
Its the flu, morons, just like the climate it changes constantly, and just like climate humans can not stop it and are not causing it.
Have they isolated this strain? Have they isolated the original strain? Have they isolated any strains???
No, a full isolation has not been achieved.
Christian Drosten will receive about a quarter of a million dollar if he can do it.
“its apparent ability to defeat very strict UK lockdowns in my opinion makes harsh lockdowns much more difficult to justify.”
More likely they’ll use it to justify even stricter measures.
appear appear appears, appear apparent apparently may appear…
“The new strain appears to be rapidly dominating other strains in the UK terms of prevalence.” Evidence?
Has the author evidence that SARS-CoV-2 has been isolated?
“the commonly used 3-gene PCR test” Is that the pcr test, known to be useless for diagnostic purposes? https://cormandrostenreview.com/report/
Why the continued focus on meaningless “cases” found by the meaningless test, rather than on hospitalisations and deaths?
Lockdowns don’t work. Announce one is going to start in a few days and everyone will go out partying and shopping. Announce the end, and everyone will go out partying and shopping. Unless the lockdown is for long enough and severe enough then they don’t work. Is the loss of liberty and freedom for everyone which destroys livelihoods and families and harms mental health for many worth a few lives? It’s the old train trolley thought experiment – except that it’s politicians trying to save one life on the wrong train track, but not caring about the ones in the train who will crash, all because the media make a huge story about the one, but nothing about the others.
Too early to call this variant a different strain of SARS-CoV-2, there has been no claim or data that this variant of SARS-CoV-2 has any different biologic property in humans.
Some good commentary from Vincent Racaniello, one of the authors of Principles of Virology, 5th Edition, 2020.
I think maybe we should wait for WHO to tell us what to think and do, after careful diplomatic talks.
A sentence to make a nation a pariah and close the borders:-
It’s a new variant, and it’s out of control.
We have had idiots in charge from day one in the UK
Biomerieux has developed a test kit that can distinguish between:
plus two other corona triggered illnesses.
The product will very soon be CE marked and distributed to medical personnel in many countries.
This is very good news, as it makes it possible to fast diagnose if the patient suffers from influenza or COVID-19, which can be difficult at times.
The diagnose is important because the two illnesses demands different treatment.
Reference: https://orf.at/stories/3194093/
Latest News – Lockdown Sceptics
“Updated report on England COVID. Focused on clinical data and classical surveillance systems. It’s pretty conclusive that the epidemic was over in Spring, probably made worse by interventions, and most of Autumn COVID is wrongly attributed. Can the Government disprove any of this?”
Latest News – Lockdown Sceptics
“Isn’t mass vaccination supposed to protect the NHS?”
Maybe this old Beatles’ song explains it?
She came in through the bathroom window
Protected by a silver spoon
But now she sucks her thumb and wanders
By the banks of her own lagoon
Weird how some things that seem under control, despite their very small size, are easily able to pull back, regroup and strike again with rapidity they shouldn’t have.
So if lockdowns don’t keep this version of the CV19 bug under control, what can be done?
The real Plague went through Europe numerous times. People either survived it or didn’t. One wave after another….
Are these those interesting times we here about now and then?
Announcing a tier-4 lockdown (very strict) just before the seasons holiday period, and giving people plenty of notice, led to a stampede as people got the heck out of dodge (London), and rapidly re-oriented their place of residence elsewhere. That time between notice of lockdown, and time of lockdown, guaranteed the virus variant would spread rapidly in the new year. Many have been saying that the govt started with herd-immunity, and carried-on with herd immunity, with minor variants to guarantee that blame would not attach to them. Still, the state pension payouts will be a lot lower going forward, although the death grants may increase slightly.
That time between notice of lockdown, and time of lockdown, guaranteed the virus variant would spread rapidly in the new year.
Almost appears intentional, doesn’t it?
Should We Be Worried About “Kent Covid”?
SARS-CoV-2 UK variant: Does it matter? – YouTube
Easy to follow
“The bottom line is that the alleged higher transmissibility of the new variant is an inference from Neil Ferguson’s epidemiological modelling and not based on any biological data.”
Just watched mwhites youtube link above of Vincent Racaniello, Earths virology professor explaining why he is not concerned about the new variant. I can only presume everything he said about the nuts and bolts of this is correct, as I admit I know almost nothing about the subject. He says he thinks it is unlikely this new variant is more transmissible. But what about the graph at the top of this post? What about Swale, in Kent UK that I mention below, looks to me like it is very likely more transmissible.
I’m no expert on this but I can’t see this being brought under control without at least much more extreme lockdown type measures which I think are very unlikely to be implemented in time, seems to me like it will most likely be in effect left to run its course now. I can’t see any urgency from national or local government to adequately tackle this. There are calls to extend tier 4 to all of the country, but I wonder if at best that might just slow down how quick it spreads to the rest of the country but do little to bring down numbers in the south east and London.
If for example you take Swale in Kent, south east England; lockdown2 was imposed early November for the whole country, from what I can make out Swale has been rising steadily ever since early October despite the lockdown and subsequent tier3. For a long time it was the worst in the country, now it has been overtaken, but it is still rising. I can’t see any measures in the new tier4 that I can imagine will bring the numbers down. I think Swale is now around 900/100k and some areas in south East over 1k/100k.
I can’t see that Swale should be any different from the rest of the country where cases dropped shortly after the introduction of lockdown2, but Swale kept rising and now the rest of the south east and London are increasing rapidly so it seems highly likely to me it is the new variant and it is more transmissible.
I’m trying to think of an extremely approximate, simple model (C = zx/y) and wonder if anyone can tell me it is completely wrong or give me an approx value for my x, y, z numbers. I prefer to keep it extremely simple, just to give some indication of how and when the numbers might start dropping:
If I divide the population e.g. of Swale into a group A and B where A are taking lots of precautions and thus unlikely to catch the virus, and B is the people most likely to catch it because they are not taking adequate precautions, in contact with too many people e.g. socialising, at work, school etc, include in this group the other people in their home who will most likely catch it if they do. So I assume almost all the cases are in group B for this simple model. What might be a sensible value to give x, where x is the proportion of the population in group B with current tier4 measures? I’m currently thinking maybe 50% or 80% for this; x = 0.5 or 0.8. If we use cumulative positive test results, call this c and presume this is less than reality because we aren’t testing everyone then we multiply c by y to account for this. I’m currently thinking maybe we’re only finding a half or a third, so y = 2 or 3? If we say z is the % (so in this case % of group B, because group A is adequately isolated) that need to have caught it and developed immunity to bring their effective R to 1. I’m thinking maybe 40% or 80% so z = 0.4 or 0.8. How big does c need to be before infections start falling? If I call this cumulative value C;
C = zx/y? high case z = 0.8, x = 0.8, y = 2, so C = 32%, low case z = 0.4, x = 0.5, y = 3, so C = 6.7%, best guess z = 0.7, x = 0.6, y = 2.5, C = 14%??
I’m assuming c (cumulative cases) for Swale is currently 6%, so perhaps Swale could be almost at the point infections drop (and group B above won’t need the vaccine?), or almost half way there, or maybe only a fifth of the way there. Or have I got this all totally wrong? I think a big problem with my model is it effectively assumes immunity to the earlier variant gives immunity to the new variant.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55507012
Imperial College double down on scary