Some interesting facts about Covid in Sweden.

By: Jan Kjetil Andersen

Sweden has some good stuff. One of them is SCB, Statistics Central Bureau, a jewel for statistic geeks.

Sweden has also made headlines because of their alternative non-lockdown policy during the pandemic, so let’s take a look on some numbers.

A table of special interest in these pandemic times is the weekly mortality rate, and even more interesting is it when we compare that with the Worldometer Covid statistics.

I base the statistics on reports from December 5th but make a cutoff on November 15th to avoid errors because of late reported deaths. According to the information from SCB, no significant changes occur on data more two to three weeks old. We can therefore trust the data up to November 15 as accurate. 

Figure 1 Worldometer from December 5th, with a cutoff November 15th
Figure 2. Total deaths per day in Sweden up to November 15. 2020 figures in purple, the green line average numbers from 2015 to 2019 and the red line shows 2020 numbers when the reported Covid fatalities are subtracted.

According to Worldometer, seen in figure 1, Sweden had 6405 Corona deaths up to November 15. That is about 600 deaths per million citizens, which place Sweden among the hard-hit countries such as UK, France, and US.

As we see in figure 2, the excess deaths from Covid is clearly visible from mid-March to June, and we also see a start of a second wave from mid-October.

However, here comes the interesting part, the excess death rate for 2020 compared to the average for 2015 -2019, is only 3570. That is only 56% of the Covid deaths reported by Worldometer over the same period.

The reason for this is that the death rate for 2020 is lower than average both before the first wave and in the time between the two Covid waves. The actual numbers from SCB before, under and after the first Covid wave is shown in the table below

 Total reported Deaths in Sweden 2020Anomaly compared 2015 -2019 averageCovid DeathsDeath Anomaly Covid extracted
Jan 1st – March 14th19063-14114-1415
March 15- June 30th311105521547942
July 1st – November 15th30956-540518-1171
Table based on numbers from SCB.  We see that 2020 has lower death rate than average for 2015 -2019 both before and after the first Covid wave. 

Parts of this anomaly may be purely coincidental. For instance, was the 2019 –2020 influenza season especially mild in Sweden.

One can speculate whether the disturbing pandemic reports early this year may have influenced enough people to be extra cautious about infections and therefore also caused less influenza spread, but that may be a stretch.

Sweden’s chief epidemiologist, Ander Tegnell, as suggested that the mild influenza season is partly to blame for the relatively high Covid death rate early in the pandemic. More of the most vulnerable survived the weak influenza season which means that Sweden entered the Covid pandemic with a higher number of vulnerable people than normal.

He may have a point, but still, the excess deaths in 2020 is projected to be large enough to bring down the life expectancy by 0.3 years in the whole country.  In Stockholm County, life expectancy is estimated to decline by 1.2 years, from 83.7 years to 82.5 years.

Misleading Worldometer statistics

Another interesting aspect here is that the Worldometer statistics always shows a dip for the most recent days for Sweden. The reason for this is that there is a delay in the reporting so the reported numbers for the most recent days are far to low. This is illustrated in the two figures below.

The Worldometer graphs from November 21st show a decline after November 9th. This decline is artificial and caused by the late reporting.

The Worldometer from December 5 shows that the death rate continued to increase after November 9th.

It is too early to tell whether the rate has continued upwards after November 24th.

These two graphs illustrate how easy we can be fooled by statistics and that can be dangerous because we depend on good statistics to make the right decisions.

For example, the authorities use the figures for the number of new infected as a tool to either tighten or ease the restrictions that will reduce the reproduction rate R. The goal is to keep R below 1.0. I am quite sure the decision makers in the government knows about this lag, but the public may not, and that influences how serious we take the situation.

Worldometer is a universally used site, and many laymen look it up for their countries. When the statistics shows a dip for the most recent days many will think, “Thank God, it is over, we can ease up now.”

That may not be the case.

References:

SCB: https://www.scb.se/hitta-statistik/sverige-i-siffror/manniskorna-i-sverige/doda-i-sverige/

Worldometer

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

0 0 vote
Article Rating
135 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Hans Erren
December 7, 2020 10:31 pm

Here is the official absolute weekly mortality in the Netherlands, with two covid waves and a heat wave inbetween.
https://opendata.cbs.nl/statline/#/CBS/nl/dataset/70895ned/line?dl=47183

Charles Nelson
Reply to  Hans Erren
December 8, 2020 2:11 am

According to the Worldometer Sweden had 2 deaths yesterday.
Please explain how this is misleading.

TheFinalNail
Reply to  Charles Nelson
December 8, 2020 5:59 am

Monday figures are usually low in some countries due to weekend reporting/compiling difficulties. Today’s new deaths figure for Sweden has jumped to 26, but that likely includes deaths that occurred over the weekend that weren’t registered until today.

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  Charles Nelson
December 8, 2020 6:12 am

I would have thought that the two graphs made that abundantly clear. It takes 2-3 weeks for the full statistical reports to clear. The November 21 graph shows 33 deaths for Nov 9 and 12 deaths for Nov 20. The Dec 5 graph changes Nov 9 slightly to 35, but Nov 20 is now 42, an increase of 30, or more than triple.

Björn Eriksson
Reply to  Charles Nelson
December 8, 2020 6:49 am

The figure 2 is wrong.
10-20 people die from covid every day in sweden.
They stop counting dead in weekends, and on monday they start sounting how many have died and on tuesday-friday the dead are accounted for.
Today dec 8, 26 dead has been confirmed but that does not mean 26 people died today.
A seven day average is more useful to understand the daily number of deaths in sweden.

Pat from Kerbob
Reply to  Björn Eriksson
December 8, 2020 7:23 am

I noticed this last week, the Sweden page showed a bump to 48 deaths on one day in late November, but the rest of the week around it was in the low 30’s. Looking back a few days ago all those low 30’s had jumped into mid-40s.
So waiting 2 weeks seems reasonable

Farmer Ch E retired
Reply to  Pat from Kerbob
December 9, 2020 8:44 pm

When I was actively updating USA COVID deaths, I plotted the 7-day moving average and the plot was quit smooth except when there was a 3-day holiday weekend. Also, every week or so, I would need to update daily deaths, sometimes for several previous months because they kept changing after the fact. It wasn’t just the recent numbers that changed.

Marcos
Reply to  Björn Eriksson
December 8, 2020 10:06 am

Are they using date of death or date reported? In my state they initially used date reported but switched to using the date on the death certificate as that was more accurate for determining daily deaths

Reply to  Björn Eriksson
December 8, 2020 10:08 am

You’re right, Björn. The Our World in Data spreadsheets, which I have used for all my work on COVID (including the paper which was published here just a few days ago) shows exactly what you say. The Swedes haven’t reported any cases or deaths at all on Saturdays, Sundays or Mondays since late August. They make up for it over the rest of the week. The totals tally with the Worldometers numbers, but not the allocations to individual days. That’s one of the reasons why, all along, I’ve used weekly averaged cases and deaths numbers in my analyses.

The Worldometers data for Sweden comes from FOHM, the Swedish public health authority. It seems strange that those figures don’t tally with the numbers at Our World in Data, which I understand are intended to be the “official” figures from Sweden?

SL
Reply to  Neil Lock
December 8, 2020 1:44 pm
gringojay
Reply to  Hans Erren
December 8, 2020 12:26 pm

Hurricane Katrina sewage related deaths were most likely related to bacteria & not viruses.

meiggs
Reply to  gringojay
December 8, 2020 3:01 pm

You mean if I give you all my money I’m not gonna die?

Another Joe
Reply to  meiggs
December 9, 2020 4:01 am

No! Death rate is 100%! Whatever they tell you, its wrong!

RickWill
December 7, 2020 10:52 pm

Nicely balanced view.

I live in Victoria, Australia, which I believe holds the world record for lockdowns. The rest of Australia avoided the second wave. Victoria let the genie out of hotel quarantine due to poor management and it spread rapidly through low social-economic groups employed as casual workers as cleaners, security personnel and food preparation in the hotel quarantine, aged care and health care – the perfect recipe for spreading the virus into vulnerable groups.

The recorded infection rate reached 750/day across a population of 5M. The hospitals were close to chaos as about 50% of cases were from aged care and 50% of the rest from staff at aged care and hospitals.

Most Victorians were more than annoyed at the poor management but more than 80% believe the lockdown was worth the effort to eradicate Covid from the population. Like the rest of Australia has been for months now, Victoria is almost restriction free. Sporting venues in other states have had near capacity crowds for months now.

There is no doubt that it can be deadly to aged and infirm. People over 45yo can suffer badly if they wait for treatment. It is rare the people under 40yo suffer badly, but some do.

My son is a physician who worked at two hospitals during the second wave. He is appreciative of the effort the general population made to take the pressure off the hospitals. He had a tough time for almost a month (it most be tough for medicos in other regions). His worst shift was signing off on 10 death certificates – all with Covid but none younger than 72yo. He was not working in ICU and most older people were not sent to ICU for intrusive treatments because they had a low chance of coming out of it. There may have been younger people in ICU who did not make it out but he was unaware of that number.

Steve45
Reply to  RickWill
December 8, 2020 12:09 am

Indeed. In my region, the five major hospitals had ONE case of flu in ICU over winter (normally we would treat hundreds) due to social distancing/hygiene measures and people listening to experts and doing wtf they are told. Seriously good effort by the Aussies despite the typical demented bleating by Bolt, Jones, Devine and all the usual Sky News tossers. Just goes to show what can be accomplished when your population is not full of libertarian nutters like the US.

Klem
Reply to  Steve45
December 8, 2020 12:47 am

Exactly right and because of that complete obedience, Oz will not experience a second wave when fall arrives in March. It’s impossible. Well done Oz.

icisil
Reply to  Steve45
December 8, 2020 4:13 am

You’re right… the US is full of nutters. I see them all of the time wearing masks, terrified of an illness with a 99.9% survival rate (greater for most of them). I talked with one of them who said his mother has covid. I asked if she was being treated in the hospital or by a private physician. He said her doctor was giving her steroids with zinc and vitamins C and D. I was quite glad to hear that. Like most who get early treatment and stay away from hospitals, she will probably be OK.

icisil
Reply to  icisil
December 8, 2020 5:29 am

Covid is basically viral infection, inflammation, breathing issues and thrombosis. Doctors know how to treat these things, and those that do so early are seeing great success. Why aren’t all doctors treating patients early instead of letting them deteriorate to the point of requiring hospitalization?

Enginer01
Reply to  icisil
December 8, 2020 3:15 pm

Dr Harvey A Risch said >last< week that Hydroxychloroquine + zinc is still working very well. It is hard to imagine if something this inexpensive, readily available (India makes 70% of world supply), and SAFE would have saved most of the 250,000 people our government let die, sending infected people back into nursing homes and horrified that our President would promote something that doesn't make Big Pharma richer.
But, as I have said, redesigning air handling systems in restaurants and bars would have helped, albeit at greater cost.
I cannot understand why the HVAC industry didn't get on the band wagon when the first notices about aerosol spread were (widely hidden) out in April. They did not need to guarantee it would work, it just makes sense.

Tom Foley
Reply to  Steve45
December 8, 2020 4:31 am

There was a great increase in flu vaccinations in autumn (Australia, April-May). In my rural area of ca 10 towns clustered around a regional city, every chemist was holding vaccination clinics, as well as every medical practice. The one I went to booked people in at 10 minute intervals, and ran over many days. Add the distancing and hand sanitising rules, and it’s not surprising that there have been few cases of flu over winter. We haven’t had any cases of covid for several months, and no deaths.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Steve45
December 8, 2020 4:52 am

consider the NORMAL death toll here

Meanwhile, there have not been any deaths from influenza in NSW since April, compared with 320 deaths in the same period last year.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-06/sharp-rise-in-rsv-infections-among-children-covid-19-risk/12945930

Dr Dalton said influenza usually killed between 3,000 and 4,000 people each year, and most of those lives had been saved by social distancing measures put in place to control COVID-19.
—————–
and kids who spread the oclds n flu were kept home, mates grandkids are all snotty nosed and theyve been prety much home, isolated for months
but they still get the bugs

observa
Reply to  Steve45
December 8, 2020 5:37 am

The only question being Steve has creating a quarantine island been successful in the long term? Young people have billions of debt to pay back to extend the lives of their grandparents and the university and tourism sector are going broke although the former is of little concern with the barista and burger flipping degrees. Also we have no backpackers and Pacific Islanders to bring in the horticulture harvest and already fruit and veg prices are rising as a result. If the vaccines don’t work we will remain a quarantine island cut off from the world and there are still tens of thousands of OS Australians wanting to get home.

Steve45
Reply to  observa
December 8, 2020 2:14 pm

I’m not a fan of the current Oz government, but the response has been well thought out and proportionate for the most part. The borders will gradually open again when the vaccines have rolled out. There’s now good evidence that three of them are effective from Phase 3 trials. In the meantime, thousands of lives have been saved and Australians can to a large degree lead normal lives contrary to the ongoing shtishow in much of the rest of the world.

goracle
Reply to  Steve45
December 9, 2020 7:33 pm

its nearly summer in the outback… what do you expect covid to do during warm sunny weather? you are right about the crapshow in the northern hemisphere though.

Peter Buchan
Reply to  Steve45
December 8, 2020 5:52 am

Steve45 “Just goes to show what can be accomplished when your population is not full of libertarian nutters like the US”.

Not so fast Sir. I’m invested in several manufacturing and distribution businesses in Oz and have been travelling there since 1994. We’re just getting started mate, and the medium to long-term effects of Australia’s hard lockdowns and nanny-government-led decimation of the the SMME space, tourism etc are yet to be felt. Canberra’s reaction to CV-19 was as predictable as it WILL ultimately prove to have been ideological, misdirected and reckless. It will soon be revealed that the much hyped Australian “prosperity” observed over the past 20 years was largely just a derivative of a) Chinese economic development and more recently b) a surge in government debt https://www.businessinsider.com.au/the-growth-in-australian-government-debt-since-the-gfc-in-one-chart-2018-5 amplified by a property bubble and the explosion of household debt: https://rogermontgomery.com/australia-leads-the-way-on-household-debt/. A sleepy little Potemkin Village down South, if you will.

All while your small business and manufacturing sectors have been eviscerated by decades of social engineering.

The ideological possession of Australia’s elected officials and elites are also on full display after they picked a both unnecessary and unwinnable fight with your largest trading partner, China – just so you could be seen to be trotting alongside your true masters – the DC Beltway Elite.

Good luck mate. The next 3-5 are not going to be pretty unless you change course, and soon. In fact, it’s probably too late already. Alea jacta est

Steve45
Reply to  Peter Buchan
December 8, 2020 2:15 pm

Not quite sure what that has to do with the response to COVID- but there you go.

Peter Buchan
Reply to  Steve45
December 8, 2020 10:23 pm

Simple, Steve

Wasn’t it you who elected to project some (typical) “Australian superiority” into a discussion about lockdown in Sweden, ending with the tribal conclusion: “Just goes to show what can be accomplished when your population is not full of libertarian nutters like the US”?

Par for the course once again; projection and nary a self-reflective mirror in sight.

Craig from Oz
Reply to  Steve45
December 9, 2020 4:12 pm

“Not quite sure what that has to do with the response to COVID”

Exactly. That is the problem.

Too many libertarian nutters with vague memories of textbooks and near zero real world experience have been treating the virus as something that can be easily dealt with by following theories. There was one otherwise rational Australian science commentator who utterly insisted that this was ‘text book’ and that the virus needed to be starved because that was how you killed viruses in labs.

Problem with text book examples is they are teaching examples. The writers are trying to explain a concept and isolate the problem for teaching effect.

What we ended up with was a bunch of people believing that isolation was going to work… after first telling us that isolation was never going to work and we would all be forced to ‘Flatten the Curve’ so everyone would die over a longer period. Remember Flatten the Curve? The entire ‘We can’t stop this, only delay it to prevent collapse of the medical system’? Come on, it was back when Oceania was at war with Eurasia at the start of the year.

The point is you can isolate a petri dish in a sterile lab environment because you are in a sterile lab environment. A city is not a petri dish. You cannot isolate it in a practical context and even when we claimed to place areas in lockdown we had so many exceptions to make the events pointless.

Even in South Australia when the ‘Circuit Break’ was rolled out with the ‘you will NOT go outside’ rules the process was farce from the start. The announcement of the midnight start lead to panic shopping during the day (yeah, lets cause population to gather with strangers) and ‘last drinks’ social gatherings in the evening. (I know of at least one venue that was running drink specials that night to encourage costumers – completely legal).

The point of ‘Safe’ is that it is a social myth. There is no Safe. If you actually work in the real world and have to deal with situations capable of causing harm you are formally instructed to not think of ‘safe’, but instead to use ‘risk reduction’. You cannot wrap someone in cotton wool to make them safe because they still might choke on the cotton.

(the other danger of telling people it is ‘safe’ is they will take you literally and relax their guard. People think masks make them safe because smug press conferences tell them so. Masks do not make you ‘safe’. They may (or may not, there are studies claiming both) reduce the RISK of catching China’s Gift to the World, but they do not make you SAFE from it.)

The real world also deals with As Far As Is Reasonably Practical. This is what you will be judged against in court. Did you reduce the risks As Far As Is Reasonably Practical?

– Was it reasonably practical to fill in that deep hole?
– Was it reasonable practical to pull up a barrier restricting casual access to the hole?
– Was it reasonable practical to provide awareness training for the entire workforce expressively pointing out where the hole was, the dangers of the hole and how if you didn’t need to be near the hole then you should not go casually exploring?

Risk reduction is multi layered. If you can’t remove the problem entirely (fill in the hole and level the ground) then you put in other risk reductions… as far as is reasonably practical. Now in context ‘it would cost too much’ is rarely considered a good answer. The good answer is ‘doing this would have other effects which we judged to be worse and/or would have adversely affected other activities.

You could for example bring bicycle accidents on public roads down to zero by completely banning them, but bicycles are now a long established part of our society and that would not be practical.

And it is this Practical point that our governments have ignored. Any action needs to be taken in the context of what you are trying to achieve. What are we trying to do? The simple answer is ‘Safe Lives’. The more complex answer is ‘Protect our society from collapse caused by excess deaths and the associated reduction of services’.

Unfortunately our politicals are simple people and only think in simple terms.

Our leaders exist to make the choices required to ensure our society and community continues to function in the manner we expect, and we expect to be able to live happy and functioning lives. Living is just the baseline, and if your ‘restrictions’ ONLY protect the baseline at the expense of the whole then you have failed.

RickWill
Reply to  Peter Buchan
December 8, 2020 2:22 pm

Iron ore is currently USD145/t (AUD185/t). It was USD85/t at the end of 2019. The country will export about 800Mt in 2020. It does not have to do much more to pay its overseas bills. In fact there is a handsome trade surplus and even the current account is now positive:
https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/current-account

The vast armies of Aussie tourists are confined to Australia and New Zealand at this stage so spending money at home. I know dozens of people, me included, who have abandoned overseas tourist travel in 2020.

China keeps finding things to cross off their import list from Australia to help their trade balance but they need the iron ore. The rest of the world is picking up the gap in sales they created with their wine import tax.

Australia’s current issue is getting the seasonal immigrants to do the crop harvesting.

Peter Buchan
Reply to  RickWill
December 8, 2020 10:31 pm

Hi Rick,

I would that you were right Sir; as mentioned in my initial post I have serious skin in the Aussie game and I’ve hated seeing the decline in the health – the structural architecture of your economy and social dynamics.

Your observations are one-off; a man falling off a building exclaiming “so far so good” half way down. Your current trade and fiscal dynamics are the short term effects of a collapse of broad-based economic activity. Local spending is short-term based on government debt-funded programs and stay at home reductions in other spending.

But the point is nothing has happened – or will until attitudes change – to change the vectors of Australian debt and geo-political mismanagement. Consequences are due, and soon.

BCBill
Reply to  Steve45
December 8, 2020 8:11 am

Well done on instituting summer Oz. Clever idea for dealing with a seasonal illness. Can’t imagine why we didn’t think of that.

Analitik
Reply to  BCBill
December 8, 2020 4:13 pm

The Victorian outbreak occurred in the middle of winter and was effectively over at the beginning of spring. The lockdown only continued to the start of summer for “an abundance of caution” by the state government, seeking to absolve itself of the blame for allowing the circumstances that led to the outbreak,.

Try learning the facts before posting

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Steve45
December 8, 2020 8:38 am

Steve45
I suppose I shouldn’t be surprised that one of the Queen’s subjects doesn’t seem to understand the difference between living free and simply existing at the whim of their betters.

Reply to  Steve45
December 8, 2020 9:33 am

“…people listening to experts and doing wtf they are told.”

Yeah, because experts always know best! See: phrenology, Freudianism, communism, etc, etc, etc.

And compliant sheep are the best sheep!

As Inner Party Member, O’Brien, in George Orwell’s 1984 said: “Power is not a means; it is an end. One does not establish a dictatorship to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship. The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture.”

Obey, prole!

goracle
Reply to  Kent Clizbe
December 9, 2020 7:38 pm

all this for .2% IFR?

suddyan
Reply to  Steve45
December 10, 2020 6:09 am

[In my region, the five major hospitals had ONE case of flu in ICU over winter (normally we would treat hundreds) due to social distancing/hygiene measures…]

My my. That science is impeccable!

Cum hoc ergo propter hoc. Confounders are an extinct species.

/sarc

commieBob
Reply to  RickWill
December 8, 2020 1:07 am

Like the rest of Australia has been for months now, Victoria is almost restriction free. Sporting venues in other states have had near capacity crowds for months now.

Does that correspond with the end of your flu season?

Which month was the worst for your son?

Klem
Reply to  commieBob
December 8, 2020 2:53 am

Part of what defines a pandemic is that it is not seasonal, otherwise we would have pandemics every year. So obviously the cvd pandemic is not seasonal, so put that question out of your mind this instant, Bob. Now get back in line.

Edward Fuller
Reply to  Klem
December 8, 2020 4:21 am
Ezzyme
Reply to  Klem
December 8, 2020 4:31 am
commieBob
Reply to  Klem
December 8, 2020 5:01 am

I’m not sure if you’re being sarcastic or not.

1 – Wuflu cases went down in the summer and increased again in the fall in the northern hemisphere. That’s exactly what was expected to happen.

2 – Australia’s version of winter is quite a bit warmer than my version of winter and I’m curious. For instance does Australia get a lot more winter sunshine than we get in Canada? Canadians suffer a decrease in Vitamin D in the winter. Is that a problem for Australians?

Klem
Reply to  commieBob
December 8, 2020 10:51 am

I forgot to write ‘/sarc’.

RickWill
Reply to  commieBob
December 8, 2020 2:36 pm

The month beginning 3 weeks after the virus was released into the community. It was under control by August, the coldest month of the year.

The rapid spread was primarily due to a particular religious celebration at the end of May. My son made the comment that the cohort appearing in the early stages were recent immigrants from sub-saharan countries. Uniquely, for Australia, living in relatively cramped conditions in large family groups with 3 or 4 generations in the same household.

The first easing of rules after the second wave were particularly targeted at this group without stating it. They were very specific about how family groups could meet and the number from each family.

None of it was rocket science but did highlight how immigration and the cultural difference of the early generations arriving here do not hold the same values. There is great suspicion of authority. for example. Also poor English language skills among the older immigrants.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  RickWill
December 8, 2020 4:48 am

thumbs up to your lad.
more than annoyed is polite
Im in rural Vic we had zero cases and copped the same crap restrictions as the buggy metropolis did
telling a farmer to wear a mask working alone in a 200 acre paddock?
yeah sure we did(not)
meanwhile super restrictions on oldfolks n hospital here was pure hell for anyone admiited, and vry few were.
visitors were banned so the dementia patients hanging by a thread of regular family contacts were badly affected by the absence.
our biggest risk is and was the less than literate visa staffers we;re inundated with, who all have relatives IN melbourne they wanted to visit or bring here.
as a patient before covid hearing them discussing patient care and being on the hard enf of care..
Im amazed weve not lost more patints from drug screwups/inappropriate care or lack of any
or maybe we have?

Reply to  RickWill
December 8, 2020 8:02 am

[please do not spam a thread -mod]

Jimmy Haigh
December 7, 2020 11:14 pm

I’ve been looking at the derivative/difference of the daily case numbers. In the UK for example the rate of “2nd wave” spread peaked in late September – long before Bozza Johnson locked down on 4th November.

Jerker Andersson
December 7, 2020 11:31 pm

” am quite sure the decision makers in the government knows about this lag, but the public may not, and that influences how serious we take the situation.”

I can assure you that Anders Tegnell mentiones this lag basically every press conference here in Sweden. I.e that the reporting for the last 10-14 days are not complete. This is a well known fact.

We reached the peak around the 15th of november here in sweden and the confirmed cases has leveled off and now is basivallay same every week. Since there is a lag a bout 2 weeks between someone is confirmed with Covid19 and death with covid19 the death rate can be expected to increase up to the start of decemeber and then level off.
A fast linear projection of the daily deaths gives about 75/day on 1st of december once all cases have been reported in. We will know for certain in mid december.

One thing that is interesting to note is that pther countries do not seem to report deaths on correct days but just dumps them on a day when the register them no matter if they died that day.

See worldometer for Ireland and Switzerland for example.

Compare the reported deaths this spring for switzerland with the deaths this autumn. The reporting looks very different.

Ireland has a huge spike on one day this spring which makes the deaths for all other days look small. Offcourse there was not a huge spike of covid19 deaths on one day, they just dumped alot of deaths on that day.

Petit_Barde
December 8, 2020 12:16 am

Interesting post.

Here is an analysis of the excess mortality in Sweden due to covid 19 amongs the Nordiks:
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3674138

The Swedens “dry tinder” effect :
https://www.aier.org/article/swedens-dry-tinder-accounts-for-many-covid-19-deaths/

In the same vein, here is a comparison between Sweden and Norway with respect to all cause mortality, “the role of mortality displacement” :

“Our study shows that all-cause mortality was largely unchanged during the epidemic as compared to the previous four years in Norway and Sweden, two countries which employed very different strategies against the epidemic,” emphasize study authors in this medRxiv paper.

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20201116/Study-compares-deaths-in-Sweden-and-Norway-before-and-after-COVID-pandemic.aspx

The original study itself :
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.11.20229708v1

A study of the main plausible causes of SARS-COV2 mortality amongs impacted countries shows that lockdown does not appear among the plausible causes of less mortality :
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.604339/full

Here in France, every lockdownista (politicians, media, aficionados of control over the population, etc.) was looking a the “catastrophic” Sweden during the first outbreak of the epidemic explaining that lockdown was THE solution.

Now they have all switched the goalpost :
– they try now to explain by all means (even the dumbest ones) why Sweden has a lower covid 19 death toll than France … despite no lockdown … (as if Saint Lockdown were a religion, a supersition, which can’t be questioned).
– they even dare use the completely fake models of Neil Ferguson (or similar garbage) to justify that lockdown saved many hundred thousands lives (Macron used such garbage to predict 400000 more deaths if we did no go into lockdown again : this shows that our government still use those fake models and act accordingly).

And I don’t even talk about the lockdown impact on the French GDP, unemployment, the mental health breakdown, suicides, etc. :
– such arguments are instantaneously qualified as the worst heretic crimes.

BCBill
December 8, 2020 1:00 am

Since death rates in the frail are cyclical with death rates rising in high influenza years and dropping in low influenza years it would seem to be statistically misleading to imply that the Covid year is going to markedly change life expectancy if life expectancy is taken as a multi year average as it needs to be. This is particularly true given that the average age at Covid death in most countries is near, or even above the average life expectancy so the effects of excess deaths in that age group is much smaller than, e. g., H1N1 swine flu (the previous panicdemic) which more strongly affected the young. Your fears don’t add up.

Reply to  BCBill
December 8, 2020 1:16 am

BCBill, you have a good point, however you miss on this:

Your fears don’t add up.

It is not about my fear at all, I am just citing SCB here.

https://www.scb.se/en/About-us/news-and-press-releases/projection-covid-19-leads-to-lower-life-expectancy-in-sweden-in-2020/

/Jan

BCBill
Reply to  Jan Kjetil Andersen
December 8, 2020 8:19 am

Thank you for confirming my point with that article. Sweden had a lower than typical influenza season in 2019 which resulted in fewer deaths in the fragile, which is being corrected this year. It is a misleading waste of energy to obsess about annual fluctuations in life expectancy.

Reply to  BCBill
December 8, 2020 3:41 am

Your fears don’t add up.

It is not my fear, I just cited the SCB:
https://www.scb.se/contentassets/93920ea973404af7804723ba589c2a53/be0701_2020a01_br_be51br2005eng.pdf

/Jan

donald penman
December 8, 2020 1:25 am

We do not have autopsies on these deaths that are being attributed to this virus they could be flu deaths.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  donald penman
December 8, 2020 4:55 am

and in truth a flu death is usually pneumonia
in the aged who ARE forcibly vaccinated for that IN old folks homes
no rights to refuse- ditto staff- or no job
now theyre banning visitors without flu jabs..

Dan
December 8, 2020 1:28 am

“Sweden has also made headlines because of their alternative non-lockdown policy during the pandemic, so let’s take a look on some numbers.”

Hardly a trustworthy source when it leads in with the non lockdown lie.

Sweden has had and is currently in a lockdown. A simple perusal of the government websites on Corona will give the restrictions in place.

Charles Nelson
Reply to  Dan
December 8, 2020 2:15 am

Dan. Try getting some facts.
Sweden’s latest measures still take the form of recommendations, meaning people don’t face legal consequences if they ignore them.

“It is expected that everyone who is subject to these recommendations will follow them all day, every day,” he said.

As of Tuesday, Swedes in seven of the country’s 21 regions — representing roughly 70% of the population — will be required to:

Avoid physical contact with people besides those with whom they share a home
Avoid indoor spaces in which crowds can form
Avoid parties, weddings, funerals and similar events
Employers should ensure that staff who can work from home do so

Not a ‘lockdown’ just common sense good advice for any pandemic situation.

pekke
Reply to  Charles Nelson
December 8, 2020 3:07 am

Charles, your are right, no ” lockdown ” here in Sweden, only cinema, theater and sport/event arenas closed for public, malls/shops open without restrictions.
Our borders are wide open for anyone, bur we cant go to our neighbors !

C-19 statistics Sweden : https://c19.se/en
7 117 deaths now.

FHM ( public health agency ) guidelines english: https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/the-public-health-agency-of-sweden/communicable-disease-control/covid-19/

Jerker Andersson
Reply to  Charles Nelson
December 8, 2020 3:25 am

Charles Nelson
You forgot some things.

Schools after 9th degree was closed this spring. They have been partly closed this automn until this week. Now alla schools higher than 9th degree has closed again.
Most big theaters has to shut down due to the 8 people limit.
Music artist can no longer perform in front of an audience, they have to make money in some other way.

The rest is voluntary but for example on my company slmost everyone can work from home from home and up to 80% have done so just due to recommendations. Noone was forced to.

Not all voluntary if you ask me.

SL
Reply to  Charles Nelson
December 8, 2020 1:51 pm

Not required! Wrong word. It is advice and suggestions that may or may not be followed at your own discretion

SL
Reply to  SL
December 8, 2020 2:30 pm

I forgot to add that the only enforceable restrictions are those concerning public events (concerts, cinema, theatre, sports) and gatherings in so called public spaces (mainly protesr, open air concerts and markets).
No restrictions apply for shops, libraries, gyms, sports training, public transport, shopping malls and similar. And certainly not for private events, parties and gatherings.
Establishments serving foods are in between. Thus a concert in a restaurant is limited to 300 people (escluding staff, performers and such, which all have no limit), while the same restaurant may serve 2000 people as long as they sit 1 metre apart in groups no bigger than 8 people.
As you may notice on Euromomo there are still no discernible excess deaths for the period (and Euromomo does correct for delay in registration) and if you check the death counts from SCB you will notice that the stats usually are almost correct within a week.
Sweden will have the usual december increase in detahs and it may be bigger than the five previosu years, but totally within normal limits if compared to the last 70 years. (Last time mortality hit these lows in Sweden was in the 50ies. It is driven by high numbers of immigrants between 25-40 years.)
It is also worth mentioning that swedishborn had a Covid (as per death certificate stats) mortality rate of 32/100000, while e.g. Finns living in Sweden had a rate of 145/100000 (based on data until may 7, there is currently no update). There are essentially no differences in way of life between finns and swedes that may explain these different health outcomes.
Most of what is currently done in Sweden is because of heavy pressure from the EU to make Sweden comply.

Dan
Reply to  Charles Nelson
December 9, 2020 6:49 am

Facts you say

In spring Sweden had:
Restricted international travel before the UK.
Restricted local travel with subsequent public transport shutdownd in several regions.
Placed most universities to virtual classroom only.
Cancelled gp visits.
Cancelled operations to free up space for Corona patients.
Enforced social distancing for social environments such as bars, restaurants, funeral homes, libraries, cinemas etc. Legally enforceabletRestrictions on capacity and number allowed as events in said venues and other meeting places and gatherings.
No club meetings.
Cancellations of sporting activities and no crowds when allowed.
School closures.
Enforced shielding.

Etc etc

As I said all of these facts are easily accessible via Swedish government websites.

They did not close bars and shops and did not prevent people from leaving their houses but otherwise implemented a lockdown.

In recent times, these measures have been relaxed though now bars and restaurants have a curfew and even more extensive capacity arrangements. These arrangements, legally enforceable, also extend to groups meeting up.

Sweden most certainly implemented a lockdown though certain elements were more relaxed.

goracle
Reply to  Dan
December 9, 2020 7:51 pm

I’m assuming you’re correct regarding sweeden restrictions. If so, I’ll have to rethink my position that sweeden had no lockdowns because those restrictions get awfully close to being a lockdown (at least soft lockdown). if those restrictions arent considered lockdowns, then most of the USA can also be said to not have had any lockdowns. I’ll need to read up some more on swedish restrictions from earlier this year.

Dan
Reply to  goracle
December 11, 2020 2:51 am

Soft lockdown maybe a better term but given the extensive restrictions, I don’t prefer the qualifier. But each to their own.

Ron Long
December 8, 2020 2:04 am

Thanks to JK Andersen for presenting Covid data in direct form. It appears clear to me that the Covid Pandemic has been politicized to suit various countries interests, and that this politization is in several directions (remember the statement “never let a crisis go to waste”?). I just read a poll result that says more persons in the USA will take the vaccine now that Joe Biden is the Presumptive President-Elect! Wait a minute, the vaccines was developed at Warp Speed due to the efforts of the Trump Administration. We need clear reports like Andersen to allow even a small chance of seeing this pandemic event clearly.

Vald
December 8, 2020 3:43 am

That’s nice and all but you do realise the data for the deaths is fake right? There’s no covid19 deaths.

cedarhill
December 8, 2020 3:52 am

Individual diseases, viz, yearly deaths, are extremely misleading. One should use average deaths and deviations from the average. Over the average are “excess deaths”.

One year is not helpful in understanding “excess deaths”. Take an average over several years for average deaths then compare year over year. Thus, Sweden in 2019 had much fewer deaths (well under the average) meaning lots of Swedes that would have died in 2019 hung on into 2020 meaning 2020 started off with a net sicker elder population. Same is true for all Western nations.

Tom Foley
Reply to  cedarhill
December 8, 2020 4:40 am

Why were there fewer deaths in Sweden in 2019? What was the reason people (presumably elderly?) hung on and didn’t die? How do we know they wouldn’t have hung on through 2020 as well if covid hadn’t come along? Has the death rate in Sweden been declining anyway? And if this decline in 2019 was broader, “all western nations”, what is the explanation? More information and analysis would be useful.

Ian Coleman
December 8, 2020 3:58 am

Uh, about that vaccine. Here in Canada, we’re set to receive enough doses for about 125,000 people, and most of these will be administered to people in nursing homes. Which is absurd, since the median time to death after first admission of a nursing home resident in 2019 was about six months. We’re expending our vaccine supply on people who are about to die anyway. Or maybe they won’t, if it turns out the vaccine cures the ailments that resulted in their admission to nursing homes in the first place.

All people hear in the discussions of how to stem the pandemic is the phrase, “saving lives.” Or, in the obverse, “people are dying.” It’s as if people in their 70s, 80s and 90s rarely died in 2019.

I don’t trust end-0f-life caregivers because they tend to be obsessed with prolonging the lives of people who, if left to the normal course of events, would die a lot sooner, and with considerably less suffering. Ironically in Canada we have now, after a lot of political wrangling, legalized medically assisted death. This was in response to the clear need for allowing dying people quick, painless death. Ironically, because the measures to suppress the virus will cause terrible economic damage, with the result that some healthy younger people will resort to suicide.

Tomsa
Reply to  Ian Coleman
December 8, 2020 10:07 am

I too wonder about why we’re giving the vaccine to those in nursing homes where the control of the spread of the virus is weak especially here in Manitoba. We’d love to get the vaccination early since we’re 70 and 69 and both with health issues which would certainly impact our survivability if we were to get covid. We’re doing all we can to avoid contacting it.

PaulH
Reply to  Ian Coleman
December 8, 2020 11:07 am

The province of Quebec has some of the most “permissive” euthanasia/assisted death laws in North America, which might help explain Quebec’s high level of deaths with/of/involving COVID-19.

Sasha
December 8, 2020 4:05 am

Here are some videos taken in the last few days in Sweden.
They show most Swedes living their completely normal civilized lives.
There are very few shops that want people to queue outside because of covid (I counted two).
How many people are wearing masks? I spotted one.
The most remarkable aspect to me is how many cyclists there are. Swarms of them. Swedes love their bikes, especially electric scooters.

This video is particularly informative:
This is a walk around Stockholm on Dec. 06 2020
Stockholm Walks: Götgatan all the way. Street life, ambient sound and some personal guiding
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WbpHZTw5uEQ

More videos from no-lockdown Sweden:
🛴 Scooter Ride in the Center of Stockholm / Sweden 🇸🇪 / 4K
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEFfGZB-fiY

🚶Walking to Scenic spot of Stockholm / Sweden 🇸🇪 / 4K
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VYln91KWsP4

🚶Walking in Stockholm City Center / Sweden 🇸🇪 / Gallerian Djurgårdsbron / 4K
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPYRiiekQhQ

Sweden, Subway night ride from Medborgarplatsen to Gamla stan + walk (not a single mask or any other covid restriction in sight)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNLvdMhnVAE

After seeing all this, where would you rather live?

tty
Reply to  Sasha
December 8, 2020 4:22 pm

The reason there is so many bicycles is:

1. Try to find a parking space in Stockholm
2. It is exceptionally mild for the season
3. Using the subway is NOT advisable right now. Even the authorities admit that.

very old white guy
December 8, 2020 5:30 am

People are going die everyday from multiple causes the flu virus is just one and it is not decimating the population of the planet. About 153,400 people die everyday world wide. If anyone thinks they can stop that then we can write a new Bible with that person at the top.

bailintheboat
December 8, 2020 5:53 am

Wow. I didn’t know there were so many control freaks on this site!

Bill
Reply to  bailintheboat
December 8, 2020 6:30 pm

What makes you think that?

December 8, 2020 7:08 am

The article starts by saying Sweden’s “non lockdown policy”

That is NOT true.

They may have had fewer lockdowns than most other nations, but they did have lockdowns.

They also had voluntary social distancing, that for some businesses had the same effect on their sales as a partial lockdown would have.

Sweden’s lockdowns recently significantly increased.

The author also looks at deaths, but not hospitalizations, which are hundreds of times more common than deaths. Pain and suffering apparently do not matter?

The author presents statistics in the middle of a pandemic, before the recent ramp up of infections in Sweden, which contradict some things he implies.

The author is a fraud, or a fool.

Fran
Reply to  Richard Greene
December 8, 2020 9:39 am

Better cut down on watching mainstream news which is designed to wind you up with fear. The one episode I have seen in the past month had both a doctor and a nurse weeping and emoting. All this is to scare the plebs, as was our medical officer’s ‘update’ yesterday.

As to pain and suffering, if it mattered putting off all other medical procedures will cause a bundle. Already know of a case diagnosed as gall bladder over the phone 9 months ago, which when finally seen in person turned out to be ovarian cancer.

When the median age of covid death remains stubbornly 85 in here, I say ‘let the rest of us make our own decisions’.

Reply to  Fran
December 8, 2020 10:41 am

I watch one half hour of mainstream news followed by the first half hour of Tucker Carlson on weeknights. Both are biased. Are you are implying that I am a “pleb”. If you are, then you are a Ding Bat, and now we are even, Ms. Bat ! Put that on your resume. I already added “Pleb” to mine.

Yes, COVID is mainly killing old people. They matter too. maybe not to you?

Many middle age and older people are, or have been, suffering at home, or in hospitals. I know two of them. The sickest they had ever been in their lives. They survived, so I guess they don’t matter to you?

COVID has led to far more often hospitalizations and ICU use than ordinary flu strains.

The partial lock downs and school closings have increased wife beating, child beating, mother in law beating, drug abuse, alcohol abuse, suicides, and serious health issues caused by avoiding doctors and hospitals.

Leave it to governments to take a serious pandemic and make it worse.

Curious George
Reply to  Richard Greene
December 8, 2020 10:13 am

Richard, please do not give us any references. Keep giving us your opinions as facts.

Reply to  Curious George
December 8, 2020 10:45 am

Uncurious George:
What specific statement in my comment are you not attempting to refute?

Do you provide footnotes and links for every statement you make in online comments?

You seen to prefer broad, generic character attacks upon others, because it is so much easier to be critical, than to be correct.

Curious George
Reply to  Richard Greene
December 8, 2020 12:00 pm

The author is a fraud, or a fool.

Reply to  Curious George
December 8, 2020 7:41 pm

The author’s claim of a “non-lockdown policy” in Sweden was not true. It is foolish to make such a claim, Or the author is trying to hide that fact, and pretend every reaction to COVID in Sweden was completely voluntary.

If you owned a restaurant in Sweden and few customers showed up for several months this year, because of COVID, would you see a voluntary “lockdown” based on a government “recommendation” as being completely different than a mandatory lockdown ordered by the government?

You’d have little business either way.

Reply to  Richard Greene
December 8, 2020 1:51 pm

The author is a fraud, or a fool.

I am sorry to say this Richard, but I have seldom seen such clear evidence of psychological self projection.

Why? well this:

The author also looks at deaths, but not hospitalizations, which are hundreds of times more common than deaths. Pain and suffering apparently do not matter?

I choose to look at deaths because it is the most reliable and accessible number. You can not draw any reliable conclusions by comparing hospital admissions between countries, because the threshold for when you should hospitalize may vary

Of course, this does not mean that suffering in a hospital does not matter. That is really a fool’s argument.

/Jan

Reply to  Jan Kjetil Andersen
December 8, 2020 8:06 pm

BALONEY
The total number of deaths in any year in total is accurate. But the number of COVID deaths in 2020 is a rough estimate, likely to be exaggerated. It is not a “reliable” number. And it is a number that completely ignores the pain and suffering of FAR MORE PEOPLE who get the disease but do not die.

And how dare you say Sweden had a “non lockdown policy” when that claim IS NOT TRUE.

If you insist on looking only at deaths, simply because you are unable to get Swedish hospitalizations data, then why write about Sweden?

The death rate in Sweden was relatively high, and the GDP decline was high too. There are many other nations with better COVID results, such as Japan and Taiwan. There is no logical reason to promote Sweden as a good example or ‘best practices” for COVID.

Since we are in the middle of a pandemic, any conclusion about COVID is premature.

In the US, there are financial incentives to report all pneumonia related deaths as COVID deaths.

In the US, the number of estimated ordinary influenza deaths in 2020 is extremely low, suggesting that ordinary “flu deaths” are under estimated, and “COVID deaths” are over estimated.

Virtually no one dies from COVID alone. They die from major organ failures, usually lungs. The people dying “of COVID” almost always have other health problems, or genetic defects, whether known or not.

So, just like the CDC in the US has done with “flu deaths” for many decades, it is just an educated guess how many people died from “the flu”. The number is not even close to a precise number.

Most doctors in the US believe CDC estimates of “flu deaths” have always been far overstated. They have used computer models in the past. That’s a good reason to suspect “COVID deaths” are overstated too.

Reply to  Richard Greene
December 8, 2020 11:55 pm

Richard, your tirade seems to be more about what you imagine that I have said than what I actually have written.
For example:

There is no logical reason to promote Sweden as a good example or ‘best practices” for COVID.

I have not said that. On the contrary I said they are among the more hard-hit counties.

That I “promote Sweden” is purely in your imagination. The same goes on and on in your rant.

For your own good, give the PC a rest Richard. Get out, take a walk, talk to people, and keep the heat down.

Learn how to participate in a civilized debate. Do not accuse your opponent to be a “fool or fraud” based on what you imagine have been said.

/Jan

Reply to  Jan Kjetil Andersen
December 9, 2020 12:38 am

And before you start a new rant by pointing to that I start by saying that Sweden has some good stuff. That is of course the statistics institute SCB, not their policy.
That should be clear from the context.

I am not promoting the Swedish Covid policy in any way.
‘/Jan

Reply to  Jan Kjetil Andersen
December 9, 2020 8:07 am

Anderson
You have responded to my serious comments with one character attack upon me, after another. True leftist style “debate”.

I said that your claim that Sweden had a “non-lockdown policy” was a lie. Yet you have continued to let that lie stand, and make no attempt to refute my charge. That is either foolish, or you are deliberately trying to cover up reality in Sweden, and that would be fraud. That is exactly why I claimed you were a fool, or a fraud.

If you are writing about COVID, and writing about Sweden, then you must believe Swedish COVID policies were smart. What other purpose would there be for writing about Sweden and COVID ?

Now you are claiming your main point was that Sweden has very good COVID statistics. Well, you’re probably wrong about that too.

It is no simple task to decide which deaths to blame on any flu, since the deceased almost always had other medical problems, or genetic weaknesses. This is especially true of COVID, where so many deaths are nursing home patients, including in Sweden.

If a person is in a nursing home, and expected to live another year, then he gets flu symptoms, and dies of a heart attack, is that death really a 100% COVID death, a 50% heart disease death and 50% COVID death, or a 100% heart disease death? It’s not that simple, but I bet COVID would be blamed.

Okay, you may continue your character attacks now.

Reply to  Jan Kjetil Andersen
December 9, 2020 9:26 am

Andersen
You have provided one character attack after another.
No attempt to refute what I wrote.
A “brilliant” response.

Reply to  Jan Kjetil Andersen
December 9, 2020 9:45 am

You said in a comment, with your usual character attack:
“And before you start a new rant by pointing to that I start by saying that Sweden has some good stuff. That is of course the statistics institute SCB, not their policy.”

Your claim that SCB is “good stuff” is merely asserted in the article, with no attempt to prove that statement.

You have made no attempt to investigate the accuracy of SCB data.

You have not referenced any study showing the high quality of SCB data.

You imply that SCB data are better than Worldometer data but provide no evidence that either one is accurate.

So, if your article is not really about COVID, or COVID policies in Sweden, then it served no purpose. …
Oh, I suppose you asserted that SCB COVID data are “good stuff”, and you believe they are better than Worldometer COVID data.

“Good stuff” is not a scientific term, and this is supposed to be a science website.

You can’t silence me with leftist-style character attacks.

Reply to  Jan Kjetil Andersen
December 9, 2020 12:41 pm

Richard, it is not very motivating to answer someone who accuses me of being a fraud or a fool, but since you are so persistent, I will give it a try.

First of all, my motivation for writing this article was neither to promote Sweden’s Covid policy nor to promote their statistical agency, as you jump to conclude.

What I wanted to highlight is the puzzling discrepancy between the reported Covid deaths and the excess mortality. I present the raw numbers, but I choose to not go far in speculating about the causes. I leave that analysis to the readers and I think we have seen an excellent discussion here.

My second point is to warn against the misrepresentation over the last few weeks due to delayed reporting. I have seen experienced journalists who admire Sweden’s strategy, are not aware of this and therefore report that they are over the worst.

Then let me comment on some of your accusations:

I said that your claim that Sweden had a “non-lockdown policy” was a lie. Yet you have continued to let that lie stand, and make no attempt to refute my charge. That is either foolish, or you are deliberately trying to cover up reality in Sweden, and that would be fraud. That is exactly why I claimed you were a fool, or a fraud.

Here you claim that you call me a “fool or fraud” because I did not respond to your claim that Sweden does not have a non-lockdown policy. This is pointless since you made the statement about “fool or fraud” in your first comment. I could not have answered anything then.

The reason I did not find that trouble worth answering, is that most people know what is meant by lockdown and not. Let me clarify this for you:

There is no country that has shut down everything, and likewise, there is also no country that is completely without Covid restrictions. There are only degrees of how much and how strict the restrictions are. Sweden is one of the countries in the world that has introduced the least extensive restrictions, and it is therefore commonly referred to as a non-lockdown country.

One can continue to quarrel endlessly about whether Sweden’s unrestrictive policy is really a non-lockdown or not, but it is not very fruitful.

It is a fact that Sweden has pursued a remarkably unrestrictive Covid policy, which is mainly based on volunteering and an open society. It is therefore interesting to see how the pandemic develops there in relation to other countries with more restrictive policies.

This may hold, I do not bother to comment on all the points where you imagine what I mean or what I have said.
/Jan

Reply to  Jan Kjetil Andersen
December 9, 2020 4:13 pm

Now that you have calmed down Anderson, I retract my claim that you are a fraud or a fool. I don’t know you well enough to judge.

I have no idea what the intended purpose of your article was.

Everyone else who writes about Sweden, and presents charts of Swedish COVID deaths, is trying to claim Sweden’s policies are a model for other nations.

Many claim Sweden had no lockdowns which is not true.

Whether the lockdowns are mandatory with punishment for violators, or voluntary with high compliance, the result is the same.

So you didn’t write to favor Sweden’s policies. And you didn’t write to inform us about COVID deaths in Sweden. You wrote to inform us that two organizations have different numbers for COVID deaths in Sweden?

But you failed to convince anyone that either organization has accurate COVID death numbers numbers, which would interest people here.

The numbers from two organizations, dring a pandemic, are different– that’s the only reason for your article? Hard to believe.

Meanwhile, in Sweden: Sweden avoided a full lockdown and relied mostly on voluntary measures because the government lacked the legal framework to do more.

A temporary law made it possible to close down businesses, but expired on June 30, without ever being enforced.

But after a sharp increase in coronavirus cases and deaths, Sweden’s government is stepping up its fight against the pandemic.

That includes capping the number of people permitted to gather in public at eight, and a ban on alcohol sales after 10 p.m.

Sweden has few legal tools to enforce limits on stores, gyms, or the use of public transport.

Sweden’s 7-day average for new cases is currently back at its pandemic peak.

Officials stressed that a full lockdown remains virtually impossible in Sweden:
“We have made severe restrictions to people’s way of life, but it’s not possible to close down entirely.”

Reply to  Jan Kjetil Andersen
December 9, 2020 4:32 pm

Andersen

“perfesser” Jan Kjetil Andersen
demonstrated his style of “debate”
by repeatedly character attacking me,
in several comments before addressing
any of my comments that were
critical of his article:

In Mr. Andersen’s own words:

“I am sorry to say this Richard, but I have seldom seen such
clear evidence of psychological self projection.”

“That is really a fool’s argument.”

“Richard, your tirade seems to be more about what you imagine that I have said … ”

“For your own good, give the PC a rest Richard. Get out, take a walk, talk to people, and keep the heat down.”

“Learn how to participate in a civilized debate.”

“And before you start a new rant … “

Reply to  Jan Kjetil Andersen
December 14, 2020 12:18 pm

Agree Jan with your assessment of Richard’s comments, but what I must see now is how over the last few weeks have virus numbers changed. I believe deaths attributed to the virus is the only way to interpret the extent of the Corona Virus, as relying upon figures such as how many people have tested positive or those assessed as catching the virus are not reliable ways to proceed with this issue. I also wonder even when considering supposed deaths by Corona how accurate this is? I have heard that here in Canada there has been situations when the person signing the death certificate simply put Corona Virus as cause, and this was not necessarily accurate.

Reply to  Jan Kjetil Andersen
December 15, 2020 2:37 pm

Thanks for your thoughtful comment Rod.

I think Covid deaths are only recorded for people who have tested positive for the virus. However, this does not mean that all of them died of the virus.

Many of the registered Covid victims have been very ill from other diseases such as terminal cancer and severe heart and lung disorders.
/Jan

Reply to  Richard Greene
December 9, 2020 10:28 pm

You really are something Richard.

Starting by calling me a “fool or fraud”, then you jump right in to feel offended by what I answer.

Calm down. You provide no valuable content, only confusion.

You should really give the PC a rest.
/Jan

Reply to  Jan Kjetil Andersen
December 10, 2020 6:26 am

Andersen
You write an article titled “Some interesting facts about Covid in Sweden”, and then claim it is not really about COVID, or about Sweden. yet the whole article appears to be about COVID deaths in Sweden.

What have you provided of value to the readers?
(1) Brief speculation about excess deaths in Sweden with no conclusion, and
(2) Comparing two sources of Swedish COVID death numbers, with no analysis of whether either one is accurate.

Your article is much ado about nothing. If you think I am misinterpreting your article, then you need a writing class. And there was never a “non-lockdown policy” in Sweden.
No matter what you wrote.

Reply to  Jan Kjetil Andersen
December 10, 2020 8:06 pm

then claim it is not really about COVID, or about Sweden.

Just in case anyone still takes Richard’s comment seriously.

I do not like to use the word ‘liar’, but his comments make no sense, because I have not written what he claims.

Therefore, I have to correct his misinterpretations.

The article is about Covid and it is about Sweden.

More specifically, it is about the astonishing difference between Covid deaths and total excess deaths in Sweden.
/Jan

ScarletMacaw
December 8, 2020 7:30 am

I am curious. Since April how many people have died of the flu?

Ian Coleman
Reply to  ScarletMacaw
December 8, 2020 9:48 am

Hello ScarletMacaw. Since March, zero human beings have died of any causes other than COVID. Do you not read newspapers? Do you not watch TV?

Whoa. Check that. Quite a few people have died of Climate Change, except for the many thousands of people of colour who were killed by rogue policemen. And what are you doing about these calamities, besides making sarcastic comments?

I’m a good person. I’m better than you. I’m not going to tell you again.

Walter Sobchak
December 8, 2020 11:55 am

Paywalled:

“Long a Holdout From Covid-19 Restrictions, Sweden Ends Its Pandemic Experiment: Government imposes mandatory measures after failing to contain new surge in infections”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/long-a-holdout-from-covid-19-restrictions-sweden-ends-its-pandemic-experiment-11607261658

Zigmaster
December 8, 2020 1:19 pm

I see a lot of comments saying how great the response has been in Australia in particular Victoria . Unfortunately many of my fellow Australians live in a fools paradise. The closing down of internal as well as external borders has fractured the harmony and unity of Australians which has created a meanness in the community that have viewed citizens in other states as lepers. You’ve had babies die unnecessarily, people unable to visit dying parents limits on people going to funerals and a State that showed this lack of compassion ( Queensland) being voted back in with an increased majority. In Western Australia parents have not been able to see their children for twelve months and no one cares, the premier who has maintained strict borders to keep out all non West Australian Australians is more popular than ever.
In Victoria, businesses that have taken decades to build up have been decimated by lockdowns, suicides are up dramatically as is domestic trauma. We were in lockdown for virtually 6 months including almost 3 months of effective house arrest with movement limited to 1 hour a day of exercise and within a 5 km limit.
Children have basically lost a total year of learning and growing up which is not just about a compromised curricular but a lack of social interaction other children.
We have so easily given up liberties for a virus that not only kills a tiny fraction of the population but only a part of that population , those aged 75-80+ . What it does show is that people are easily scared and when scared they become extraordinarily compliant. I hate to think how my fellow Australians will react to the loss of freedoms that will come when the climate change agenda seeks to use this template to impose similar restrictions.
I don’t blame other Australians for feeling a sense of relief at eliminating the virus , the relief is palpable. But they have to realise there was a better less draconian way and that was exemplified by how it was handled in NSW.
So don’t give Dan Andrews credit for cleaning up the mess his own incompetence created. You will regret the loss of liberties precedent created by his response. The end in no way justifies the means.

gringojay
Reply to  Zigmaster
December 8, 2020 3:18 pm

Brings to mind the old refrain : “Everybody wants to go to heaven, but nobody wants to die.” Yet I know a lot of very old people (the primary targets of ChiComVid) who have said, in one way or another: “Enough already.”

les Online
Reply to  Zigmaster
December 8, 2020 5:42 pm

My impression….. on release from the biggest prison on earth Victorians all wore tracker ankle bracelets.
The corporate mass media praised the new easy-to-impose covid restrictions as the return of Freedom (The ‘New Freedom’). Will they also promote getting vaxxed as The Freedom Passport ?

RickWill
Reply to  Zigmaster
December 8, 2020 10:25 pm

Don’t let facts get in the way of rant.
1. Suicides have not increased:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-27/no-spike-in-suicide-rates-in-victoria-during-covid-19-lockdowns/12602060
2. Business failures in Australia are down:
https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/bankruptcies
3. Universities will be scrambling to offer places so VCE results will be irrelevant. If a child missed the propaganda session on Climate Change they will be better off for it.

The vast majority of Victorians knew the virus could be eradicated – they are not so dim to think otherwise. Many resented having personal freedoms constrained but recognised that there are some dingbats in the population who have limited understanding and cultural differences – for example recent immigrants in large family groups from sub-saharan countries being in casual employment in aged care and hospitals primarily as cleaners and security personnel gathering in large groups to celebrate a religious event at the end of May – a disaster that did happen.

Dan has retained his teflon coating and it appears slimier than ever.

yarpos
December 8, 2020 1:33 pm

Another useful site in comparing Sweden outcomes with other EU countries is euromomo.eu

Rather than dealing in absolutes in shows excess deaths against established trends. Sweden doesnt suffer in comparison to many other EU countries.

tty
Reply to  yarpos
December 8, 2020 4:12 pm

But our mortality figures are absurdly much worse than our neighbouring countries with similar climate, social conditions and population densities:

Deaths per million inhabitants:

Sweden: 711
Denmark: 155
Iceland: 82
Finland: 76
Norway: 66

‘The Swedish strategy has been outstandingly unsuccessful, particularly since the economy has not suffered noticeably less than our neighbours’.

Reply to  tty
December 8, 2020 9:10 pm

tty
Quiet !
Don’t tell the author of this article.
He thinks Sweden is a COVID paradise, so let’s not upset him with data!

John Endicott
Reply to  Richard Greene
December 9, 2020 8:34 am

Please quote where he said anything about Sweden being a COVID paradise. exact quote or else you are simply spouting BALONEY! (as usual).

Reply to  John Endicott
December 9, 2020 10:03 am

Endirott:
The author starts by saying:
“Sweden has some good stuff. One of them is SCB, Statistics Central Bureau, a jewel for statistic geeks. Sweden has also made headlines because of their alternative non-lockdown policy during the pandemic, so let’s take a look on some numbers.”

MY COMMENT:
If Sweden has some “good stuff”, and their “non-lockdown policy” is mentioned in the next sentence, then the author is implying that policy was part of the “good stuff”, or why would he mention it at all ?

The claim that Sweden had a “non-lockdown policy” implies the Swedish government completely trusted the Swedish people to voluntarily do the right thing to avoid the spread of COVID. Many people brag about the Swedish COVID policies. And they publish Swedish COVID death data to prove it. Just like this article did.

The no lockdowns in Sweden claims are lies.

John Endicott
Reply to  John Endicott
December 10, 2020 2:38 am

If Sweden has some “good stuff”, and their “non-lockdown policy” is mentioned in the next sentence,

That’s the best you have, an easily disproved lie?
Sentence: “Sweden has some good stuff.”
Next Sentence: “One of them is SCB, Statistics Central Bureau, a jewel for statistic geeks.”
There is no mention of “non-lockdown policy” in the next sentence. The reference to “good stuff” in the first sentence is specified in the next sentence as referring specifically to the SCB.

But you don’t even have to take my word or the words in the actual two sentences you point to, the author himself has replied to you elsewhere in the comments to point out that you are claiming something that he is not saying. Despite that being pointed out to you by others (including the author himself) you keep peddling the same falsehood, that makes you a damn liar.

Reply to  John Endicott
December 10, 2020 11:31 am

You didn’t write the article, Endirott, so why are you defending it?

The article starts out by saying “Sweden has some good stuff”. The author never explains what the “good stuff” is. The author talks almost entirely about COVID deaths. That can’t be “good stuff”.

The only clue of what the author meant by “good stuff” is that he seems to likes the Swedish COVID death statistics from SCB. But he makes no attempt to show they are accurate numbers — they are “good stuff” merely because he says so.

The article had no point, and promoted the common myth of the Sweden “non-lockdown policy” too.

John Endicott
Reply to  John Endicott
December 11, 2020 11:08 am

One doesn’t have to be the author of the article to call out your lies for what they are. Instead of getting your knickers in a twist over being called out on your lies, wouldn’t it be far easier for you to just stop lying rather than doubling down?

Bottom line: You made a false claim. The author pointed out your claim was false. Those posting honestly and in good faith would have apologized for the misunderstanding, you chose to continue spreading the falsehood. The speaks volumes about you, none of them good.

RB
Reply to  Richard Greene
December 9, 2020 12:59 pm

The author starts by saying:
“Sweden has some good stuff. One of them is SCB, Statistics Central Bureau, a jewel for statistic geeks. Sweden has also made headlines because of their alternative non-lockdown policy during the pandemic, so let’s take a look on some numbers.”

As you quote the author says the SCP is good. From school level logic your “If Sweden has some “good stuff”, and their “non-lockdown policy” is mentioned in the next sentence, then the author is implying that policy was part of the “good stuff””

is clearly wrong. The author has also answered you pointing out you are totally wrong with your assertion.

Reply to  RB
December 9, 2020 4:41 pm

The author has not provided any information of value other than claiming two different organizations don’t present the same data for Swedish COVID deaths.

So what?

Why would they be expected to be identical?

Does either organization have accurate numbers?
The author doesn’t say.

Is the tracking of COVID deaths in Sweden better than, or different from, other nations?
The author doesn’t say.

If an author has to explain the purpose of his article, then the writing quality is poor.

Reply to  RB
December 9, 2020 10:14 pm

Richard’s reading skills seems to be poor. Since he continues to spread confusion by claiming that I say something only he has imagined I have to clarify it.

I have not claimed that two organizations present different numbers for the same issues. Both SCB and Worldometer are excellent sources, but they report on different issues.

What I have said is that there is a puzzling difference between the reported Covid deaths and the overall excess death rate.
/Jan

Enginer01
December 8, 2020 3:25 pm

Whole House Fans
There has been some confusion over my comment that older houses, before A/C became dominant, proved a problem when Europe (and Canada) shut the fans off for the winter, thus concentrating viruses. Also, some confused them with attic fans. The short video at this site helps clarify:
https://www.solatube.com/whole-house-fans

tty
December 8, 2020 4:00 pm

“It is too early to tell whether the rate has continued upwards after November 24th”

No, it isn’t to early and it has kept on rising, strongly. On Nov 24 the 7-day trailing average Mortality was about 40 deaths/day. Currently it is about 60. At peak in April it was 100.

And a word of warning about the SCB figures. They are very reliable, but they lag badly since they are based on official death certificates. Figures for at least the last 4 weeks are therefore always too low, and for the most recent two weeks competely meaningless.

Gary Hudson
Reply to  tty
December 13, 2020 3:21 pm

Check with :https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/. It shows the 7 day average daily death rate is down to 8, despite “cases” continuing to climb. What’s going on?

Reply to  Gary Hudson
December 15, 2020 2:09 pm

Gary, this is just another statistical artifact due to the 2 to 3 week lag in the death reporting.

Check again in the end of the year and you will see that the average daily death rate right now is significantly higher than 8.

I would guess it is around 50 +/- 20.
/Jan

December 8, 2020 4:17 pm

Question: How does Sweden classify China Wuhan Virus deaths? Do they count like we do in America?
(If anyone sneezes, it’s WUHAN)

Reply to  Matthew W
December 9, 2020 6:14 am

Good question Matthew. Accoding to Swedens Public Health Agency, twoindependent agecies register the Covid deaths.

One is the Public Health Agency and show the number of people with confirmed covid-19 who have died, regardless of the cause of death. It is these figures that are reported abroad in Sweden and internationally.

The other is the «National Board of Health and Welfare», which makes a parallel calculation of the number of deaths where doctors determine covid-19 as the cause of death, regardless of a positive covid-19 test.

The National Board of Health and Welfare’s statistics are quite accurate with the Swedish Public Health Agency’s.
/Jan

mwhite
December 9, 2020 1:09 am

Paper not yet peer reviewed

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.11.20229708v1.full

“Our study shows that all-cause mortality was largely unchanged during the epidemic as compared to the previous four years in Norway and Sweden, two countries which employed very different strategies against the epidemic. Excess mortality from Covid-19 may be less pronounced than previously perceived in Sweden, and mortality displacement might explain part of the observed findings. We hope that these findings can pave the way for a less polarized and more open-minded discussion about pros and cons with less compared with more drastic measures against the Covid-19 epidemic.”

tty
Reply to  mwhite
December 9, 2020 6:29 am

Oh yeah. And in April they had to use refrigeration containers in Stockholm, because there was no room left in the morgues.

And as of today the local health authorities in Stockholm are asking for outside help, contagion is spreading rapidly and ICU units are 99% full:

https://omni.se/stockholm-vadjar-om-hjalp-vi-har-trangts-for-mycket/a/OQylj1

https://www.dn.se/sthlm/99-procent-av-iva-platserna-i-stockholms-lan-fyllda-laget-ar-mycket-allvarligt/

mwhite
Reply to  tty
December 10, 2020 1:26 am

“Swedes Warned to “Stay in Bubble” – But Still No Excess Deaths”

https://lockdownsceptics.org/2020/12/10/latest-news-219/#swedes-warned-to-stay-in-bubble-but-still-no-excess-deaths

Total over reaction

tty
Reply to  mwhite
December 10, 2020 6:23 am

Fake News.

There is a lot of excess deaths in Sweden at present. As I have explained before the excess motality figures lag by about 4 weeks, but the SCB statistics show a marked excess mortality from about Nov. 12. See for yourself:

https://scb.se/hitta-statistik/statistik-efter-amne/befolkning/befolkningens-sammansattning/befolkningsstatistik/pong/tabell-och-diagram/preliminar-statistik-over-doda/

The significant data is in “Tabell 1”

mwhite
Reply to  tty
December 10, 2020 1:27 am

Paul C
December 9, 2020 2:12 pm

Ivor Cmmins had a presentation comparing the COVID data from Sweden with other countries a week or so ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3vDsKEOIQI
Good analysis providing an explanation of what has happened – such as a couple of years with below normal deaths, so a large vulnerable population. Of course there are competing explanations, but he presents lots of data, with sources referenced. He also takes a look at the Japan data there.

D. Carroll
December 10, 2020 7:54 am

I wonder if anyone could find similar data on Italy. It’s not easy to search.
Considering covid deaths are back to spring levels. How unusual are such death level spikes there, given that this is where the panic started!?

Reply to  D. Carroll
December 10, 2020 12:04 pm

Hello D. Carrol,
You can find some data for Italy on euromomo.eu,

https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

/Jan

Eric Vieira
December 10, 2020 11:38 am

In Germany, some people have published a table comparing a real pandemic to a staged pandemic, which has run viral. There came a prompt reaction from many media sites putting it all down as fake news…

Here is the translation of it in English:

Real pandemic Staged pandemic

Everyone knows severely ill people from Disease cases are only known from the
their immediate environment/family. media and stories.

Doctors’ offices and hospitals in the Short-time work and vacancies in hospitals.
whole country are overcrowded. Increased anxiety patients in practices.

There are very very many dead. Unchanged mortality rates based on
year-to-year comparisons.

Politicians and doctors do everything to Politicians are doing everything they can to
calm people down. spread panic and intimidate people.

Politicians are doing everything The economy is being deliberately stifled.
to keep the economy going. Whole industries are being destroyed.

Facts are sought and any help Renowned scientists are ignored
in the emergency is accepted. and even publicly ridiculed by the media.

There are no organized profiteers. Billions in profits through prepared
arrangements and deals.

A quick end and a timely, appropriate Changing findings, constantly adjusted
all-clear according to clear benchmarks and new regulations which
specifications/guidelines is sought. prolong the pandemic over and over again.

People are afraid to die and People have more fear of
try everything to protect themselves, punishment. Measures are
where politicians inform in case of through social pressure, police violence
unnecessary overreactions. and enormous fines

People are struggling with a People fight over
humanitarian catastrophe. toilet paper.

Think! Wake up!

I don’t see any real problems with this table, and I think that’s what’s driving the MSM crazy… lol!

Reply to  Eric Vieira
December 14, 2020 12:32 pm

I in my admittedly suspicious mind if all of this Corona Virus is the as yet revealed (and if so never be revealed hidden agenda in places of real power, belong governments that we see? Horrors if this is true!

Jackie Pratt
December 10, 2020 5:54 pm

Wow. Ad hominem heaven right here. Covid, although a’real thing’, is a huge pile of bull.

The Spanish flu, now there’s your pandemic.

Politicians, NWO jerks and big tech are having a blast by panicking the entire world.

Martin Buschau
December 11, 2020 11:02 am

Did anyone notice that the Worldometer “New Cases” graph for Sweden now has a totally different character this week than the past weeks? It appears that the New Cases daily data has been repopulated going back as far as I cared to look. The most obvious changes from the previous data is that (1) each week now has 3 consecutive days with zero “0” new cases (2) followed by a huge spike in new case number (presumably to make up for the prior null days) and then (3) finishing the week off with 3 days of new case data much lower than the initial spike. I figured it was probably just a new way of presenting weekly data but I’m not getting the same weekly averages for new cases and the new case trend line looks more aggressive too. I’ve looked to see if there was some explanation for the wholescale renovation to Sweden’s Worldometer New Cases data but haven’t found one. Has anyone else have any insight in that regard? Given the timing of the data update and the previous trend I was following (which looked somewhat flat if not starting to decline) this seemed worth mentioning.

December 15, 2020 4:36 pm

Hi Jan: thank-you for your reply. I really hope that you may follow up with the statistics you have been presenting as time goes on, say over the next several weeks to months if necessary. Thank-you for your post, overall it is a good one, Rod.

Reply to  Rod Chilton
December 16, 2020 8:37 am

Thanks for the kind words Ron.

Yes, I will probably come with a follow -up in a month or two, unless the topic have already been extensively covered by other posts here.
/Jan

%d bloggers like this: