Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Elon Musk claiming his coming in 2021 fully autonomous vehicles are safer than human drivers, and how renewables can supply the redoubled energy needs of the future, though they will need lots of grid scale batteries.
Musk predicts full autonomy from 2021, says EVs will double electricity demand
DECEMBER 2, 2020
BRIDIE SCHMIDT…
Speaking at an Axel Springer event in Berlin, Musk said he thinks that by 2030 the “vast majority” of new cars will be electric and almost all will have Level 5 autonomous driving.
“Ten years from now, the vast majority of cars will be electric, maybe 70-80% of cars, and almost all (new) cars will be autonomous,” he said at the event he attended to accept the Axel Springer award for “the inventive spirit and innovative power” with which he has “revolutionised several industries”.
…
But the transition to electric vehicles will also great more demand for electricity, he noted, adding to demand for more renewable sources of energy.
As the transition to electric cars picks up pace, intermittent electricity from renewable sources such as wind and solar will need to be stored in batteries, Musk said.
“Together with large battery packs, both things need to be combined, wind power with battery packs and solar energy,” Musk said.
…
Read more: https://thedriven.io/2020/12/02/musk-predicts-full-autonomy-from-2021-says-evs-will-double-electricity-demand/
Musk claims his autonomous vehicles are 10x safer than human drivers, based on extensive driving tests.
I hope Musk’s autonomy claims are more realistic than Musk’s suggestion that solar and wind + battery packs can service the redoubled power needs of 2030.
He sells electric cars. What else would he say?
I noted some serious typos in the above quotes ascribed to Musk in the Bridie Schmidt article excerpt.
I have corrected the most serious ones here:
“ ‘Ten years from now, the vast majority of cars will be still be ICE-powered, maybe 70-80% of cars, and almost all (new) cars will NOT be autonomous due to the numerous technical problems and accidents revealed after autonomous driving software and hardware was implemented across a wide-range of real world driving, traffic, roadway and weather situations’, he said.”
I like this quote from a Manhattan Institute study:
“The annual output of Tesla’s Gigafactory, the world’s largest battery factory, could store three minutes’ worth of annual U.S. electricity demand. It would require 1,000 years of production to make enough batteries for two days’ worth of U.S. electricity demand. Meanwhile, 50–100 pounds of materials are mined, moved, and processed for every pound of battery produced”:
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/green-energy-revolution-near-impossible
“Ten years from now, the vast majority of cars will be electric, maybe 70-80% of cars, and almost all (new) cars will be autonomous,”
ROFL
No, 10 years from now they might make up as much as 10% of the total car sales…maybe.
Have autonomous features like change lane warning? Yes, Truly autonomous – no….no….and no. Autonomous cars might make up 1% of the fleet in 10 years.
I guess Elon Musk is hoping for massive Federal subsidies to make these technologies affordable by more than 5% of the population. Just wait until the raw resource prices for certain elements triples or more and see how economic batteries are then. Visionaries are terrible at practical economics and the speed at which change can progress or what constitutes a real physics breakthrough. So they can see “a future”, but never get the time right to get there.
“Ten years from now, the vast majority of cars will be electric, maybe 70-80% of cars…” says Musk. Let’s see, in our first ten years of electric cars we reached <1% volume for EVs world wide and he thinks it will grow by how much? The only way his claim will come true is if ICE cars are banned.
The only way his claim will come true is if ICE cars are banned.
Politicians on the left, in countries around the world, are certainly working hard to make that happen
That’s great Elon, so how about we demonstrate just one developed country that can operate totally on wind, sola and batteries for a year. That might be nice before thinking about doubling demand, which is another issue. Just one country.
With the current technology set the “transition to renewable energy” is complete BS, even setting aside the idea of doubling demand.
BUY VANADIUM PRODUCERS WHILE THE IDIOCY IS IN FULL FLOWER!
Elon better start paying off the government to get the money to install “charge while driving” infrastructure on major thoroughfares. After all, the roads and rails were built before mechanical transportation became common.
Tesla is building a large car factory near Berlin. At the beginning of the planning it was widely spread that this factory will be operated exclusively with renewable energy. Now it turns out that there is also a power plant on the site, which will be fired with gas to provide the necessary process heat for the production.
Even Musk’s statement that nuclear power plants will be needed to meet future electricity requirements is not well received in Germany.
I don’t want an EV. I’m annoyed enough by the loss of warm colored incandescent bulbs and non-functional low flow toilets, dribble showers, and food-hardening dish washers. Note to government:. Please leave me alone.