Mark Serreze, University of Colorado Boulder
With the setting of the sun and the onset of polar darkness, the Arctic Ocean would normally be crusted with sea ice along the Siberian coast by now. But this year, the water is still open.
I’ve watched the region’s transformations since the 1980s as an Arctic climate scientist and, since 2008, as director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center. I can tell you, this is not normal. There’s so much more heat in the ocean now than there used to be that the pattern of autumn ice growth has been completely disrupted.
To understand what’s happening to the sea ice this year and why it’s a problem, let’s look back at the summer and into the Arctic Ocean itself.
Siberia’s 100-degree summer
The summer melt season in the Arctic started early. A Siberian heat wave in June pushed air temperatures over 100 degrees Fahrenheit at Verkhoyansk, Russia, for the first time on record, and unusual heat extended over much of the Arctic for weeks.
The Arctic as a whole this past summer was at its warmest since at least 1979, when satellite measurements started providing data allowing for full coverage of the Arctic.
With that heat, large areas of sea ice melted out early, and that melting launched a feedback process: The loss of reflective sea ice exposed dark open ocean, which readily absorbs the sun’s heat, promoting even more ice melt.
The Northern Sea Route, along the Russian coast, was essentially free of ice by the middle of July. That may be a dream for shipping interests, but it’s bad news for the rest of the planet.
Warmth sneaks in underwater
The warm summer is only part of the explanation for this year’s unusual sea ice levels.
Streams of warmer water from the Atlantic Ocean flow into the Arctic at the Barents Sea. This warmer, saltier Atlantic water is usually fairly deep under the more buoyant Arctic water at the surface. Lately, however, the Atlantic water has been creeping up. That heat in the Atlantic water is helping to keep ice from forming and melting existing sea ice from below.
It’s a process called “Atlantification”. The ice is now getting hit both from the top by a warming atmosphere and at the bottom by a warming ocean. It’s a real double whammy.
While we’re still trying to catch up with all of the processes leading to Atlantification, it’s here and it’s likely to get stronger. https://www.youtube.com/embed/C17-Z_sl5cI?wmode=transparent&start=0
Climate change’s assault on sea ice
In the background of all of this is global climate change.
The Arctic sea ice extent and thickness have been dropping for decades as global temperatures rise. This year, when the ice reached its minimum extent in September, it was the second lowest on record, just behind that of 2012.
As the Arctic loses ice and the ocean absorbs more solar radiation, global warming is amplified. That can affect ocean circulation, weather patterns and Arctic ecosystems spanning the food chain, from phytoplankton all the way to top predators.
On the Atlantic side of the Arctic, open water this year extended to within 5 degrees of the North Pole. The new Russian Icebreaker Arktika, on its maiden voyage, found easy sailing all the way to the North Pole. A goal of its voyage was to test how the nuclear-powered ship handled thick ice, but instead of the hoped-for 3-meter-thick ice, most of the ice was in a loose pack. It was little more than 1 meter thick, offering little resistance.
For sea ice to build up again this year, the upper layer of the Arctic Ocean needs to lose the excess heat it picked up during summer.
The pattern of regional anomalies in ice extent is different each year, reflecting influences like regional patterns of temperature and winds. But today, it’s superimposed on the overall thinning of the ice as global temperatures rise. Had the same atmospheric patterns driving this year’s big ice loss off Siberia happened 30 years ago, the impact would have been much less, as the ice was more resilient then and could have taken a punch. Now it can’t.
Is sea ice headed for a tipping point?
The decay of the Arctic sea ice cover shows no sign of stopping. There probably won’t be a clear tipping point for the sea ice, though.
Research so far suggests we’ll stay on the current path, with the amount of ice declining and weather systems more easily disrupting the ice because it’s thinner and weaker than it used to be. https://www.youtube.com/embed/vtM9KTVGFVw?wmode=transparent&start=0
The bigger picture
This year’s events in the Arctic are just part of the climate change story of 2020.
Global average temperatures have been at or near record highs since January. The West has been both hot and dry – the perfect recipe for massive wildfires – and warm water in the Gulf of Mexico has helped fuel more tropical storms in the Atlantic than there are letters in the alphabet. If you’ve been ignoring climate change and hoping that it will just go away, now would be an appropriate time to pay attention.
Mark Serreze, Research Professor of Geography and Director, National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado Boulder
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
We had Californication in 2007. Now we have Atlantification. This time, the show can be set in Glasgow to coincide with COP26 in November 2021.
“The West has been both hot and dry – the perfect recipe for massive wildfires – and warm water in the Gulf of Mexico has helped fuel more tropical storms in the Atlantic than there are letters in the alphabet. If you’ve been ignoring climate change and hoping that it will just go away, now would be an appropriate time to pay attention.”
I’ve been paying real close attention for 38 years. This is some of what I see.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/59093/
“People continue to insist wrongly that this drought and the wildfires were caused by climate change………..calling them “climate fires”
Let me repeat this again.
Global warming/climate change causes the Pacific Ocean temperature to warm up. It happens in tandem with more El Nino’s, which is a warming at the surface in a key area of the Tropical Pacific.
El Nino’s cause MORE precipitation in much of the US. They help protect the US from droughts.
El Ninos= more precip/less droughts in the US = more frequent during global warming/less frequent during global cooling
La Nina’s = Less precip/more droughts in the US =less frequent during global warming/more frequent during global cooling
The US Cornbelt has had only 1 widespread severe drought in the past 32 years, in part because of this climate change. That drought was in 2012 and was started by the La Nina drought the previous year that spread east and ended late that Summer when ENSO readings moved into the El Nino side of Neutral.
The drought before that was way back in 1988, during a strong La Nina.
Only 1 drought in 32 years in this key location………..when that location should have seen around 4 droughts based on prior historical records from the “OLD climate.
Why is every drought headline news and from climate change but having the record least number of droughts in the highest corn/bean producing area of the planet not worth a mention?
El Nino’s help protect from droughts and there will be more El Nino’s and less droughts with global warming/climate change.
La Nina’s cause many widespread droughts. There are LESS of them during global warming/climate change. The drought which we have out West right now has been caused/worsened by La Nina conditions in the Tropical Pacific. This is the complete opposite of the affect of global warming and climate change.
You can’t blame something bad on a dynamic that actually helps prevent that something bad from happening.
This can’t be from climate change.
I hope this is clear because the opposite and wrong, anti science message is being told by……….EVERYBODY. “
Here’s the link with more about the fake “Climate Fires” from the previous post.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/59093/
Once again you are all trying to sell the steak. You need to sell the sizzle (ironic that the saying is appropriate here). The focus should be on the benefits of a warmer world and why it is desirable. When people understand this, they will not see warming as doom and gloom but as something to appreciate and attain.
But there is very little sizzle from more heatwaves, droughts, extreme weather and sea level rise. There’s even a point at which more CO2 reduces nutritional qualties of major food crops.
“There’s even a point at which more CO2 reduces nutritional qualties of major food crops.”
Another LIE caused by ignorance of the experimenters.
Similar later tests doe up proper conditions show no such thing .
Sea level rise shows absolutely NO INFLUENCE from human causation.
Droughts have not got more extreme, neither has weather
Basically everything you just alluded to is an out and out LIE.
and you know it.
typing grr..
third line should read
“Similar later tests done under proper conditions show no such thing “.
Under proper growing conditions, by farmers that know something about crops, there is no drop in nutrient levels.
crops grown in greenhouses using raise CO2 levels produce some of the most nutritious fruit and vege around.
griff:
” There’s even a point at which more CO2 reduces nutritional qualties of major food crops.”
And what point would that be? Do you even know?
Your problem griff, is that you seem to have no real world experience about anything other than your own little bubble.
The Danes are not team players at all, letting the side down as usual (/sarc).
The DMI data on extent look much less alarming than NSIDC:
http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/sea/SICE_curve_extent_LA_EN_20201028.png
And the DMI data on volume show complete normality:
http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/sea/CICE_curve_thick_LA_EN_20201028.png
What to do – maybe send Mike Pompeo to Copenhagen to slap them around a little.
Phil Salmon
” The DMI data on extent look much less alarming than NSIDC… ”
Sorry, this is incorrect.
Here is the NSIDC source for Arctic sea ice extent (daily), managed at colorado.edu:
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/
And here are the graphs showing the data.
1. Absolute values:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-rIi_Ml6yinPkUWPDFPz4VEy9BUX4fZL/view
2. Departures from the mean of 1981-2010:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/19I6WWxw-xavC0H7K7tS_Ocef8BE2gzcs/view
Both DMI and NSIDC show nearly the same absolute values.
J.-P. D.
None of those look even the slightest bit “alarming”
Looks to me like the Arctic has RECOVERED slightly from the extreme highs of the LIA and late 1970s.
This is TOTALLY A GOOD THING, especially for Arctic sea life.
fred250
I have nothing in mind with your permanent alarmism blah blah.
The reason for my comment was contradiction to Phl Salmon’s alarmism blah blah, not more, not less.
J.-P. D.
“I have nothing in mind with your permanent alarmism blah blah.”
WT* are you yabbering about ?
I’m the very opposite of an alarmist.. I’m a REALIST
So glad you agree that there is NOTHING TO BE ALARMED ABOUT.
Well done.
Why is this a bad thing?
Because lack of ice allows the planet to warm faster – feedback.
The IGNORANCE of griff, highlighted for everyone to see. !!
Getting so desperate he is reduced to out and out LIES. !
And pray, why is warming a bad thing? The World is still much cooler than it was 1000 or 2000 years ago. What were the climate disasters that occurred back then?
You still haven’t explained how Polar Bears survived the Holocene, despite the absence of Summer ice.
griff also need to explain WHY there is still SO MUCH Arctic sea ice. !
Wrong – it’s a negative, not positive feedback since more sea water is exposed allowing both radiative and evaporative heat loss. Above latitude 60 this outweighs albedo.
Why do you think sea water under sea ice during ice ages is warmer, not colder, than during interglacials?
The albedo feedback does not start until ice cover substantially reaches a latitude of about 60 or lower. Above that, the feedback is negative. If not, then every winter would cause a positive feedback leading to an ice age.
The Antarctic is steady to cooling. What the hell is wrong with SH co2?
It’s upside down in the Southern Hemisphere, doh !! Some people. Don’t you understand how gravity works?
More and more evidence that current Arctic sea ice extents are significantly above those of most of the Holocene.
https://notrickszone.com/2020/10/29/3-more-new-studies-show-modern-arctic-sea-ice-extent-is-greater-than-nearly-any-time-in-the-last-10000-years/
But not those of the last 100 years. The point is, we have had accelerating warming over recent decades, clearly shown by the lack of ice and clearly caused by human CO2.
When we last had an ice free arctic it was because the part of the Milankovitch cycle then in progress exposed the summer arctic to much higher insolation. Here we have a serious decline with no such driver in place.
“But not those of the last 100 years.”
You mean the highly beneficial rise from the FREEZING COLD of the LIA.
Your really are getting desperate griff.. and POINTLESS.
We haven’t go t an “ice-free Arctic now, fool.
There are still a whole 4+ Wadhams of Arctic sea ice.
That NATURAL WARMING has done wonders for Arctic sea life and the Arctic in general
Not only is the land surface GREENING, but the seas are also springing BACK to life after being TOO COLD and frozen over for much of the last 500 or so years (coldest period of the Holocene)
The drop in sea ice slightly toward the pre-LIA levels has opened up the food supply for the nearly extinct Bowhead Whale, and they are returning to the waters around Svalbard.
https://partner.sciencenorway.no/arctic-ocean-forskningno-fram-centre/the-ice-retreats–whale-food-returns/1401824
The Blue Mussel is also making a return, having been absent for a few thousand years, apart from a brief stint during the MWP.
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0959683617715701?journalCode=hola
Many other species of whale are also returning now that the sea ice extent has dropped from the extreme highs of the LIA. Whales cannot swim on ice. !
https://blog.poseidonexpeditions.com/whales-of-svalbard/
Great thing is, that because of fossil fuels and plastics, they will no longer be hunted for whale blubber for lamps and for whale bone.
Hopefully the Arctic doesn’t re-freeze too much in the next AMO cycle, and these glorious creatures get a chance to survive and multiply.
Why do you continue to think a TOTALLY FROZEN Arctic is a good thing ??
You obviously have a deep-seated hatred for Arctic sea life. !
“we have had accelerating warming over recent decades,
UTTER BS yet again
There was no warming between 1980 and 1997
No warming between 2001 and 2015.
The only warming has come in two steps, both at large El Ninos
That means that there can be absolutely ZERO human cause.
Let’s see you ran away again and hide again, griff, you insipid little coward…
1… Do you have any empirical scientific evidence for warming by atmospheric CO2?
2… In what ways has the global climate changed in the last 50 years , that can be scientifically proven to be of human causation?
.
“Here we have a serious decline with no such driver in place.”
And what was the “driver” that caused the Arctic sea ice to expand to anomalously extreme high extents during the LIA and the late 1970s, griff?
Do you really think those extreme high extents were “normal” or beneficial to anything ???
Would you have preferred the globe dipped into another deep Ice Age ??
You think its so warm in Siberia, why haven’t you escaped from the devastating heat in the UK and moved there ?
‘ … the lack of ice and clearly caused by human CO2.’
Wrong, its caused by ocean currents.
The Holocene has passed its ‘used by date’ and we know from the final days of the Eemian that there is a warm spike before we slip into the abyss, with 400 years of universal drought. Arctic ice extent is at a low ebb, but will rebound magnificently over the next decade, nothing to do with CO2.
There have been about 19 warming intervals over the Holocene, of comparable amplitude and steepness to the present one. To argue that current warming is unprecedented and alarming has zero basis and is simply politically opportunistic fraud, taking advantage of the credulity and muddle-headedness and political interests of the moneyed elite.
The last 3 or 4 Pleistocene glacial intervals have been the coldest periods for several hundred million years, and during them, CO2 has decreased to below 200 ppm with serious danger of plant die-offs and extinctions. The many megafaunal extinctions of the last glacial maximum are in large part due to this CO2 starvation. In the close aftermath of such events, adding CO2 to the atmosphere should be considered a benefit and an urgent priority.
To argue instead that CO2 addition is harmful since for a mere century or two it happens to coincide with a warming oscillation, a very probable and unexceptional coincidence in the context of fractally varying climate, is deeply ignorant and utterly illogical.
Before you yip back, open your mind to deep time and to a period longer than a century or two. The world was not created in 1850 despite what you might have been told.
When we last had an ice free arctic it was because the part of the Milankovitch cycle then in progress exposed the summer arctic to much higher insolation. Here we have a serious decline with no such driver in place.
You acknowledge Milankovitch cycles? That’s strange, because current climate research increasingly ignores Milankovich forcing, oceans, continental movement and ascribes all temperature change to volcanoes only except in the modern period where it’s human CO2.
At the end of the previous, Eemian interglacial there was also a very abrupt warming with 3-5m sea level rise. Also in the absence of Milankovich forcing, as the authors commented:
“The LIG [last interglacial] record reveals that strong climate forcing is not required to yield
major impacts on the ocean and ice caps. Antarctic ice cores document that LIG atmospheric CO2 was
~275 ppm, while global temperature was < 1 °C warmer than present. Despite only slightly warmer conditions than pre-Industrial times, relative sea level (RSL) persisted at +2–3 m for several thousand years during the early and mid LIG. Later in the LIG, sea level abruptly rose an additional 3–5 m meters to +6–9 m RSL."
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Paul_Hearty/publication/317309157_Sea-level_change_and_super_storms_geologic_evidence_from_late_last_interglacial_MIS_5e_in_Bahamas_and_Bermuda_offers_ominous_prospects_for_a_warming_Earth/links/59c51d09aca272c71bb8d5d1/Sea-level-change-and-super-storms-geologic-evidence-from-late-last-interglacial-MIS-5e-in-Bahamas-and-Bermuda-offers-ominous-prospects-for-a-warming-Earth.pdf
Those who believe that the Arctic is a place where heat is accumulating has a different view of things.
Less ice is a sign of warming and will expose the water to the winter climate. And ice will form later and expose more water the the sky and it is cool.
Just study the ice cover growth.
the ice cover growth which has been remarkably lacking over the last 7 weeks?
SO WHAT.. there has been a WEATHER event over the north of Siberia.
That slightly less cold blob has now dropped well below zero
Why is there still SO MUCH SEA ICE in the Arctic griff?
You high priests said it would be all gone years before now.
Why do you think that having the Arctic frozen solid all year round is a good thing?
Why do you worship Arctic sea ice and HATE Arctic sea life ?
Do you have any evidence at all that the highly beneficial drop in Arctic sea ice from the extreme highs of the LIA and late 1970s has any human causation.???
Still waiting for actual evidence.. never forthcoming
a feeble set of posts above, trying to ignore a massive set of physical evidence.
MarkW – WHERE IS YOUR BETTER DATA?
Yes, every one of your posts is absolutely FEEBLE, and in total DENIAL of actual evidence.
Steeped and dripping with DENIAL of natural climate variability and a deep hatred of Arctic sea life.
There is still FAR MORE SEA ICE than for most of the last 10,000 years…
The partial RECOVERY from the extreme highs of the LIA and late 1970s has been an absolute boon for Arctic sea life.
griff, WHERE IS YOUR DATA showing warming by atmospheric CO2?
We have been waiting a very long time !!
Fred dozens of competent universities, research institutes, distinguished scientists ahve assembled the data.
If you can’t use google, I can’t help you.
I tend to concentrate on the observed, physical evidence, like the arctic sea ice… perhaps you’d like to read the article one more time?
Thanks for admitting that YOU CANNOT PRODUCE ANY…
Its YOUR fantasy…
YOU produce the evidence..
Or you could just keep yabbering mindlessly.
WHY is there still SO MUCH Arctic sea ice?
Why do you think the anomalous extreme high extent of the late1970’s was in any way “normal” or desirable?
Why do you HATE Arctic sea life and want to see it frozen out all year?
Do you have any evidence at all that the highly beneficial drop in Arctic sea ice from the extreme highs of the LIA and late 1970s has any human causation ?
Do you have any empirical scientific evidence for warming by atmospheric CO2?
In what ways has the global climate changed in the last 50 years , that can be scientifically proven to be of human causation?
Still nothing except mindless yabbering..
NO EVIDENCE, and you have just admitted you cannot produce any.
But everybody knows that…. even you.
Fred250….
”griff, WHERE IS YOUR DATA showing warming by atmospheric CO2?”
griff….
”Fred dozens of competent universities, research institutes, distinguished scientists ahve assembled the data.”
That’s data about warming not warming from co2.
griff….
”I tend to concentrate on the observed, physical evidence, like the arctic sea ice”
And there’s your problem right there. That’s not evidence of warming from co2. It’s just evidence of warming.
Basically griff you and all your climate scientologist friends have nothing.
I wish people wouldnt keep repeating this myth. “that melting launched a feedback process: The loss of reflective sea ice exposed dark open ocean, which readily absorbs the sun’s heat”
At the low angles of incidence in the arctic the ocean is not dark, it is very reflective. Ever watched the sun go down over the sea? Is that dark?
Not only that the weak energy, of which only visible wavelengths can penetrate water, and cause heating, is vastly exceeded by the energy the ocean can radiate in the absence of an ice cap.
Sea ice insulates the ocean. Wiki it, look it up, research it. It is well known.
Atlantification is a difficult thing to understand given that it is not in the dictionary. Why does every thing that occurs in the Arctic each year have to be bad always? Why can’t we just watch what unfolds in the arctic with interest rather than fear? There has been no downward change in minimum sea ice extent in the last decade. I wonder what changes we will see in the Arctic in the coming decade?
I’m afraid that sort of reasoned response is a thing of the past, now we just panic and in the process make the most ludicrous decisions.
we’ll see a summer with no sea ice whatever, that’s what.
and that will have a feedback effect on the warming rate of the planet.
LOL.. your high priests have been saying that for ages
FAILED. !!!!
WHY IS THERE STILL SO MUCH SEA ICE , griff?
Why do you think the extreme high levels of sea ice in the 1970s was normal or desirable?
Why do you HATE Arctic sea life so much that you want to see it frozen out and return to near extinction.?
Do you have any evidence at all that the highly beneficial drop in Arctic sea ice from the extreme highs of the LIA and late 1970s has any human causation ??
“we’ll see a summer with no sea ice whatever,”
You mean like for most of the first half of the Holocene?
Wouldn’t that be TOTALLY WONDERFUL for all life trying to live up there.
Even now, with the small drop from the extreme high levels of the LIA and late 1970’s, near extinct species are already returning
WHY do you want to see them disappear again, griff
WHY do you HATE Arctic sea life so much?
Do you have any evidence at all that the highly beneficial drop in Arctic sea ice from the extreme highs of the LIA and late 1970s has any human causation ?
Farewell Arctica.
The tipping point was last winter: for the first time in history (not only since 1979, but since it was discovered in 19th century) there was no Siberian High formed. This is a blocking anticyclone that is responsible for the cold siberian winter.
It is gone. May be for good. Without it, the warm atlantic air passes all over Russia to Pacific.
If true, the arctic ice will never recover.
It has RECOVERED, from the extreme high levels of the LIA and late 1970s anomalies.
….. and Arctic wildlife is loving it. !
Not only is the land surface GREENING, but the seas are also springing BACK to life after being TOO COLD and frozen over for much of the last 500 or so years (coldest period of the Holocene)
The drop in sea ice slightly toward the pre-LIA levels has opened up the food supply for the nearly extinct Bowhead Whale, and they are returning to the waters around Svalbard.
https://partner.sciencenorway.no/arctic-ocean-forskningno-fram-centre/the-ice-retreats–whale-food-returns/1401824
The Blue Mussel is also making a return, having been absent for a few thousand years, apart from a brief stint during the MWP.
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0959683617715701?journalCode=hola
Many other species of whale are also returning now that the sea ice extent has dropped from the extreme highs of the LIA. Whales cannot swim on ice. !
https://blog.poseidonexpeditions.com/whales-of-svalbard/
Great thing is, that because of fossil fuels and plastics, they will no longer be hunted for whale blubber for lamps and for whale bone.
The Antarctic sea ice is at an unprecedented high we are all going to freeze to death.. Oh no that’s just weather isn’t it?
Chris A
“… at an unprecedented high… ” ?
Woooah!
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1CPSG0C_h9i1HjDTrF2Vmj84A6t2p3t9O/view
and with more detail
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BCEkUrq8b2d_DwZZZRM43rQwMDrWnEdM/view
As you can see, some more cooling will be needed in the next years until Antarctic sea ice reaches the levels of… 2012 and 2015.
And despite the high level reached in 2015, the mean of 2015-2019 kept below the 1981-2010 mean.
Antarctic keeps rock-solid over the long term – in either direction.
J.-P. D.
Thanks JPD
was not really a serious comment as the cover is as unprecedented as the Arctic low ice cover is low. There is always precedent depends how far you want to look; but thanks for your comment anyway.
Chris
griff October 30, 2020 at 1:20 am says
If its a cycle, why is this one so low? Lower than the last low point, by miles?
Hi Griffo, shouldn’t that be by square ‘miles’?
As the graph
http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/ArcticIce.htm
shows current variability is of order of +25% to -25% in the assumed most recent cycle. Not all natural cycles are of the same magnitude since there are number of other underlining variables.
In case it didn’t occur to you the September Arctic ice extent could theoretically vary from 0% to 100% .
No need to panic with + or – 25%, but when it gets down to order of + & – 5% of it’s centenary average I’ll move back to the Mediterranean shore.
griff also doesn’t understand the WEATHER event of the jet stream pushing warm air from below Siberia up into the Arctic, where it is great for Arctic sea life, because it stalls the winter re-freeze for a week or so.
…. while at the same time causing bitter and cold in the USA, breaking many October COLD records by very significant amounts.
He cares more about sea ice than he does about Arctic sea life or people trying to live with temperature below zero in the USA.
He still hasn’t explained why there is STILL SO MUCH Arctic sea ice. !
I’m looking at extent charts in sq km, like this one.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2975.0;attach=290205;image
YOU tell me when the ice has been this low in the last 100 years. You show me the low pont of the previous cycle and show it wasn’t higher. I don’t think you can.
He often, as others did, but you didn’t take care of.
The warming out of the COLDEST PERIOD in 10,000 years
WHY is there still SO MUCH Arctic sea ice, griff
Way more than for most of the last 10,000 years
Your high priests said it would be gone long before now.
You seem DESPERATE for it to refreeze to extreme high levels again.. WHY ?
The slight RECOVERY from the anomalous high extent in the late 1970s has been TOTALLY BENEFICIAL to Arctic sea life
Why do you hate Arctic sea life so much, griff?
Why do you worship sea ice above sea life?
Do you have any evidence at all that the highly beneficial drop in Arctic sea ice from the extreme highs of the LIA and late 1970s has any human causation ?
“in the last 100 years”
SO WHAT…!
Why do you continue to use such piddlingly short periods of time?
Is it that you have only just learnt to count that far ?
WHY is there still so much more sea ice than there has been for the last 10,000 years ?
The good news is that this is a negative feedback control on global warming.
Lots of heat in the Arctic during winter? That means lots of heat being radiated into space.
Oh, and let’s not forget that the Antarctic ice was exceptionally high this year.
er… no. it doesn’t.
and you can’t avoid discussion of the arctic by pointing at antarctic squirrels.
YOU can catch the squirrel that took your brain, mistaking it for a chestnut either
Arctic has RECOVERED quite well from the extreme highs of the late 1970s
Far more to go before it drops to the normal levels before the LIA , though.
Not only is the land surface GREENING, but the seas are also springing BACK to life after being TOO COLD and frozen over for much of the last 500 or so years (coldest period of the Holocene)
The drop in sea ice slightly toward the pre-LIA levels has opened up the food supply for the nearly extinct Bowhead Whale, and they are returning to the waters around Svalbard.
https://partner.sciencenorway.no/arctic-ocean-forskningno-fram-centre/the-ice-retreats–whale-food-returns/1401824
The Blue Mussel is also making a return, having been absent for a few thousand years, apart from a brief stint during the MWP.
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0959683617715701?journalCode=hola
Many other species of whale are also returning now that the sea ice extent has dropped from the extreme highs of the LIA. Whales cannot swim on ice. !
https://blog.poseidonexpeditions.com/whales-of-svalbard/
Great thing is, that because of fossil fuels and plastics, they will no longer be hunted for whale blubber for lamps and for whale bone.
Hopefully the Arctic doesn’t re-freeze too much in the next AMO cycle, and these glorious creatures get a chance to survive and multiply.
Or do you prefer the Arctic to be permanently frozen over and this returning Arctic sea life to disappear forever?
What a NASTY little anti-life piece of non-entity your really are, griff.
I believe there is now in addition to the TP shortage, a shortage of Koolade.
Griffy drank it all, and continues to.
Arctic October scenario for 2019 was very similar to this year.
“In 2019, during the second half of the month, ice began to grow quickly along the coastal regions of the East Siberian and Laptev Seas.” nsidc
Latest sea ice image for 29th Oct shows exactly that this year.
One difference is that in 2019…..
“Of particular interest are the unusually high temperatures at and near the surface in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas due to the extensive open water there.” nsidc
This year Beaufort sea is full of ice.
October Total Ice Gains have been greater in recent years than they were in the 80’s.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/1999/11/Figure2b-1.png
‘October Total Ice Gains have been greater in recent years than they were in the 80’s.’
What nonsense.
THE ACTUAL AMOUNT OF ICE IS 3,519,603 sq km lower than the 1980s average for the date.
GREAT NEWS, hey griff
The Arctic sea is has RECOVERED a small amount from the extreme high of the late 1970’s
This has been HIGHLY BENEFICIAL for Arctic sea life
And of course , your claim of nonsense, again displays your wanton ignorance
October gain has been rising steeply since the 1990
This year will be a bit low because of a WEATHER event that is now well below zero
That WEATHER event slowed the re-freeze in October, November will be rapid.
WHY is there still so much sea ice up there , griff
WAY MORE than for nearly all the last 10,000 years. !!
fred250
One more time: the usual, multiple cherry-picking.
You concentrate on a tiny bit of information and think it helps in demonstrating a whole chapter.
What about the same analysis for all months since 1979?
J.-P. D.
NSIDC data is bi-daily before 1988.
Looks like CB has done the work for pre 1988 (see below) and come to exactly the conclusion.
Off you go,
fix it all up and show me I am wrong
Or STFU and stop being an ignorant fool !
Your credibility is ZERO.
fred250
All the job CB did makes no sense: you can’t simply look at gains without looking at losses.
What matters looks like this:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/19I6WWxw-xavC0H7K7tS_Ocef8BE2gzcs/view
Looking at one month makes no sense.
J.-P. D.
LOL….. so you are ADMITTING that the statement was TOTALLY CORRECT
Waiting for an apology to BOTH of us.
Maybe get some of your lacking integrity back.
“What matters looks like this:”
And WHY does that matter??? It affects no persons anywhere..
It allows Arctic sea life to return to the Arctic after being frozen out since the LIA.
And whay are you looking at such a short period and such a small region
Arctic sea ice is far higher than it has been for most of the last 10,000 years
Stop CHERRY-PICKING a meaninglessly short period of time.
“you can’t simply look at gains without looking at losses.”
Where were the losses in October, ??
We are talking about gains in October.
Try to stay somewhere near the topic., dolt !
You are sounding just like Loy and griff..
Is that what you really want to do ?
fred250
Where does that strange plot
come from?
Here is a plot of all Arctic sea ice extent levels for October months since 1979:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1C3rjZy97yJsyNVUqy0ep2PeQHfcvNEtu/view
Your gain in credibility seems to tend down to zero 🙂
J.-P. D.
MASIE data.. even you are capable of getting the data and confirming the facts
Aren’t you ?
You are way below ZERO credibility…. you are a mathematical nonce. !
BELIEVE what you are told by the climate priest, Don’t bother looking at the data yourself,
DON’T BOTHER ACTUALLY THINKING for your self.
oops… no, it comes from NSIDC data.
Go and check for yourself.
IF you are capable.
Here is the “October gain” graph with pre-1988 data added
Missing 1987 data for some reason, but I’m sure a dolt like you could go back and fix that.. right ???
Coincides with what CB is saying
Go and look at the data yourself, if it isn’t beyond you.
Then I expect an apology.
ps, you do know that we are talking about the GAIN during October, don’t you
Your links are totally MEANINGLESS in that context
Try again. ! Engage brain first !!
fred250
… and don’t forget to carefully read
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/10/29/wheres-the-sea-ice-3-reasons-the-arctic-freeze-is-unseasonably-late-and-why-it-matters/#comment-3115464
J.-P. D.
Found the missing 1987 data.
That was the year they changed from two day reporting to one day reporting
So here is the graph of Arctic sea ice GAINS during October from NSIDC data
October 2020 data can be added in 2 days time, I suspect around 2.5 – 2.8, …
…so a bit low compared to the last several years, because of that strong slightly less cold WEATHER event…
…… but higher than most years in the 1980s.
Do you have the intelligence to go and look at the data yourself?
Do you have the integrity and credibility to apologize.. ?????
“and don’t forget to carefully read’
Yep, just another ignorant post
SO WHAT.
Still waiting for that apology..
Or can’t you do the simple analysis by yourself ????
We could also look at the November sea ice gain, which has also been increasing since the 1980s
fred250
What? To apologise ???
You are writing here about a ridiculous ‘October gain’ nonsense, and I should apologise because I request from you to consider a full year balance for all years instead, like everybody does everywhere?
Would concentrate on December gain if you were the owner of a business?
Hilarious.
J.-P. D.
So, you really haven’t got any integrity or HONESTY at all.. as predicted.
Your are a moronic putz, with the brain and morality of a slug.
October gains have been HIGHER the over the last 10 years than at any time in the 1980.
even this year will be higher than most.
You have NOTHING
You are an empty sack !!
So PATHETIC that you cannot admit that YOU WERE WRONG.
So far-leftist. !
“a full year balance for all years instead”
OK let’s do that.
Current sea ice extent is FAR HIGHER than for most of the last 10,000 years
kapeesh !!!
Now, dig deep, ADMIT that you were wrong, and offer an apology to CB and myself.
Or remain a loathsome leftist scum with ZERO honesty or integrity.
on 30 Oct griff said..
“the ice cover growth which has been remarkably lacking over the last 7 weeks?”
Data PROVES he was LYING or IGNORANT
Which are you, Bin Laden, dishonest or ignorant ? or BOTH ✔
“What nonsense.”
The nsidc graph I posted shows it quite clearly.
From 1979-1989, no year in that decade had attained the 3 million Km² for the month of October.
The decade we are about to leave had 5 years @+3 million Km², with 3 years not far off that.
October 2008 recorded over 4 million Km².
Thank you CB,
DATA is what data is.
If these clowns can’t be bothered looking at the actual data before spouting off ignorant nonsense,…
…. you can’t help them.
Thanks griff, I had concluded earlier that the climate troll line of thinking was attempting to erase knowledge of medium and long run ocean temperature cycles and the ongoing data collection systems and research tied to them. Now I realize it goes beyond that to include knowledge of data lag effects of those warming cycles.
As for hiding the warming at depth, I don’t think so….
fred250 October 30, 2020 at 1:54 pm
The Arctic sea is has RECOVERED a small amount from the extreme high of the late 1970’s
This has been HIGHLY BENEFICIAL for Arctic sea life
fred250 October 30, 2020 at 6:53 pm
It allows Arctic sea life to return to the Arctic after being frozen out since the LIA.
According to you both more ice and less ice are beneficial! Which is it?
YAWN
You can’t even comprehend basic English can you, you poor mindless muppet.
The recovery IS the highly beneficial drop in sea ice.
Seriously, are trying to mark yourself as a complete moron..?
fred250 November 1, 2020 at 12:00 pm
YAWN
You can’t even comprehend basic English can you, you poor mindless muppet.
The recovery IS the highly beneficial drop in sea ice.
You should familiarize yourself with the terminology of the subject:
‘recovery’ of sea ice refers to the increase of sea ice, ‘decline’ refers to a drop in sea ice
Seriously, are trying to mark yourself as a complete moron..?
No I leave that to you.
You are obviously TOTALLY IGNORANT about Arctoc sea ice history.
The ANOMALY over the last 10,000 years has been the LIA and late 1970s
Are you actually DENYING that fact.. really !!!
Only a complete moron thinks that those extreme levels of sea ice are normal or desirable for Arctic sea life.
Only a person that absolutely hates Arctic sea life would want it constrained by metres of thick ice all year round.
Why keep showing your abject ignorance ?????
The RECOVERY has been the drop down to more normal Holocene levels from the anomalous highs of the LIA.
If you are SO DUMB and ignorant of climate history that you don’t know that, no-one can help your little wasted mind.
Why would I want toi use the INCORRECT terminology of a pack of mindless ignorant AGW religious fanatics?
1… Do you have any empirical scientific evidence for warming by atmospheric CO2?
2… In what ways has the global climate changed in the last 50 years , that can be scientifically proven to be of human causation?
3… Do you have any evidence at all that the highly beneficial drop in Arctic sea ice from the extreme highs of the LIA and late 1970s has any human causation
Keep running around making stupid cackling noises, its funny. 🙂
Very much like a headless chook.
Climate believer October 30, 2020 at 8:42 am
“In 2019, during the second half of the month, ice began to grow quickly along the coastal regions of the East Siberian and Laptev Seas.” nsidc
Latest sea ice image for 29th Oct shows exactly that this year.
Whereas this year that rapid growth occurred in the last three days of the month.
October Total Ice Gains have been greater in recent years than they were in the 80’s.
Yes because in the 80’s they started at 8 million sq km and increased to ~10 million during October, in contrast in the 2010’s they started at 5 million and ended at 8 million. This year it started ~4 million and finished at ~6.6 million, consequently in recent years we have about half as much older, thick ice each winter than in the 80’s
Facts are facts. Recent October GAINS have been much higher than in the 1980s..
GET OVER IT.
So you are saying that the slightly sluggish start this October was because there was SO MUCH ARCTIC SEA ICE.
Are you a HATER of Arctic sea life like griff is
You think it is a good thing that the Arctic was frozen over in the LIA and late 1970s?
You prefer sea ice to SEA LIFE.
You are just another rampant ANTI-life ANTI-environmentalist.
fred250 November 1, 2020 at 12:06 pm
Facts are facts. Recent October GAINS have been much higher than in the 1980s..
GET OVER IT.
So you are saying that the slightly sluggish start this October was because there was SO MUCH ARCTIC SEA ICE.
No quite the opposite, it was due to the very low level of sea ice and therefore a high level of open sea water which had warmed to a higher than normal temperature and therefore a slow refreeze.
As shown above even after the gains in recent years the sea ice extent at the end of October doesn’t reach the extent at the beginning of October in the 80’s.
Are you a HATER of Arctic sea life No!
You obviously are a hater of Arctic sea life.
You think huge expanses of frozen sea all year round are good.
You are an idiot, sea life lives in the water NOT in ice.
The current levels of Arctic sea ice ARE NOT LOW, they are still very high compared to the last 10,000 years
Stop being a moronic climate change denier.
1… Do you have any empirical scientific evidence for warming by atmospheric CO2?
2… In what ways has the global climate changed in the last 50 years , that can be scientifically proven to be of human causation?
3… Do you have any evidence at all that the highly beneficial drop in Arctic sea ice from the extreme highs of the LIA and late 1970s has any human causation
fred250 November 1, 2020 at 10:50 pm
You are an idiot, sea life lives in the water NOT in ice.
Really? I guess you haven’t read the Stein paper you keep linking to in support of your Holocene assertions!
dodge and weave, little minded one. So funny .. you are like a pretzel as you twist and turn in evasion
The current levels of Arctic sea ice ARE NOT LOW, they are still very high compared to the last 10,000 years… Proven by MULTIPLE references.
Stop being a moronic climate change denier. and answer the questions
1… Do you have any empirical scientific evidence for warming by atmospheric CO2?
2… In what ways has the global climate changed in the last 50 years , that can be scientifically proven to be of human causation?
3… Do you have any evidence at all that the highly beneficial drop in Arctic sea ice from the extreme highs of the LIA and late 1970s has any human causation
fred250 November 2, 2020 at 11:38 am
dodge and weave, little minded one. So funny .. you are like a pretzel as you twist and turn in evasion
You’re the one who’s dodging and weaving, you made an assertion which contradicts one of your data sources so I called you on it.
The current levels of Arctic sea ice ARE NOT LOW, they are still very high compared to the last 10,000 years… Proven by MULTIPLE references.
Not supported by this one for example:
LOL …. you continue to plumb the VERY DEPTHS OF IGNORANCE.
I say 10,000 years, you produce the LIA
You are pointless and ignorant all in one.
Now, try again , you bumbling fool !
1… Do you have any empirical scientific evidence for warming by atmospheric CO2?
2… In what ways has the global climate changed in the last 50 years , that can be scientifically proven to be of human causation?
3… Do you have any evidence at all that the highly beneficial drop in Arctic sea ice from the extreme highs of the LIA and late 1970s has any human causation
fred250 November 3, 2020 at 3:24 am
I say 10,000 years, you produce the LIA
No I produced the last 2,000 years which also includes the Medieval Warm Period, the data I linked to showed the last ten years to be lower than any time in those 2,000 years.
Also the Holocene plots you show contain no data from the last 70 years.
Then its a farce, and proven wrong by MANY other studies.
But you knew that didn’t you, FOOL !!
Try again, irksome COWARD
1… Do you have any empirical scientific evidence for warming by atmospheric CO2?
2… In what ways has the global climate changed in the last 50 years , that can be scientifically proven to be of human causation?
3… Do you have any evidence at all that the highly beneficial drop in Arctic sea ice from the extreme highs of the LIA and late 1970s has any human causation
You mean you don’t know the 1970s were up there with the LIA.
No-one can help your mind-numbed IGNORANCE can they Phlip. !!
1… Do you have any empirical scientific evidence for warming by atmospheric CO2?
2… In what ways has the global climate changed in the last 50 years , that can be scientifically proven to be of human causation?
3… Do you have any evidence at all that the highly beneficial drop in Arctic sea ice from the extreme highs of the LIA and late 1970s has any human causation