The Election Day Weather Forecast: Who Will it Favor?

Reposted from Cliff Mass’s Weather Blog

Tuesday, October 27, 2020

 I got a call today from a political science professor from California:  he wanted to know how to get reliable weather forecast information for next week because weather can favor one party over another.

I helped him, but this got me thinking about the weather on election day, particularly since we are now close enough in time to have some skill.

I was familiar with a number of studies that have been done on this subject, and their suggestion that bad weather favors Republicans (see an example below).

So what do the latest and best model forecasts predict for election day?

Since my blog readers deserve the best, I examined the world-leading guidance from the European Center model.

The forecast for election day over much of the U.S. is extreme….. extremely pleasant, with minimal storminess and precipitation.

To give you the best possible forecast let’s examine the European Center ensemble model predictions in which they run their model 51 times, each slightly differently,  The average or mean of  these ensemble forecasts is usually a good prediction.

The ensemble-mean upper level (500 hPa, about 18,000 ft) weather map for 11 AM PDT shows a HUGE area of high heights/pressures dominating nearly the entire U.S., while a trough of low pressure/height is offshore.    Such a pattern will bring warmer than normal and dry condition for the western two-thirds of the U.S.

To show his, there are the temperatures forecast for the same time. Toasty in California, the southwest, the central and southern Plains states, the Gulf Coast and Florida.  The only locations that will be below freezing will be northern New England and New York.

Precipitation that day?  Almost nothing except for a few sprinkles in New England.  Even Seattle will be dry!

Considering this forecast, the classical papers, such as the one noted above, would suggest an enhancement of Democratic voting.
But I suspect there are some surprises ahead.   How will the COVID pandemic and huge numbers of mail-in ballots change the story?  The percentage voting on election day will be much smaller than normal. 
Trump supporters are probably different that the Republican voters of 20-30 years ago.  And can one really trust telephone-based polling?  Many people are solely using smartphones and conservative voters may well be fearful of expressing their honest views to someone that calls their home out of the blue.
One thing is for certain:  the weather this weekend looks quite pleasant here in the Northwest–a perfect time enjoy the fall colors.  A pleasant way to forget the election for a few hours.

Picture courtesy of Rachel Samanyi

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Andy in Epsom
October 29, 2020 6:09 am

If the US follows what happens in the UK then bad weather would be better for trump. What happens in the UK is that the younger people do not tend to go and vote whereas the elder population will show out in good numbers. As most people move to the right politically as they age it normally benefits Republicans/Conservatives.

Tom Waeghe
Reply to  Andy in Epsom
October 29, 2020 9:05 am

Liked a post

October 29, 2020 6:15 am

Stormy with downpours of insanity.

Reply to  Scissor
October 29, 2020 6:29 am

And if it’s cool …. well a good time to pack heat!

Doug Huffman
Reply to  eyesonu
October 29, 2020 6:45 am

It is never to warm to bring along some extra heat.

Ron Long
Reply to  Doug Huffman
October 29, 2020 10:30 am

We’re talking tabasco, right?

Damiel kampo
Reply to  Ron Long
October 29, 2020 6:20 pm

No Colt God made man Colt made them =====

Topm in Florida
October 29, 2020 6:16 am

I guess it becomes a question of weather you vote that day or not.

Joe Wagner
Reply to  Topm in Florida
October 29, 2020 7:49 am

Another pun like that and my response shall be thunderous.

Reply to  Joe Wagner
October 29, 2020 8:54 am

That response was a bit of a wash out.

Reply to  MarkW
October 29, 2020 8:47 pm

…you mean a snow job…

Reply to  noaaprogrammer
October 29, 2020 9:11 pm

That was cold

John Finn
October 29, 2020 6:29 am

According to some, the young are much more motivated this time around.

Reply to  John Finn
October 29, 2020 6:59 am

Hear that every four years. And every time it has turned out to be a leftist wet dream.

Reply to  John Finn
October 29, 2020 12:41 pm


Bob Weber
October 29, 2020 6:30 am

Regarding “COVID”, Americans should understand how badly we’re being mislead by Dr. Fauci.

If people would just connect the dots. The CDC not long ago reduced the actual CV19 deaths downward after removing deaths from other causes, which reduced CV19 mortality rates. Apply the same thinking to ‘cases’ and what do we see?

comment image

Thanks to the WHO flu plot above, we can see CV19 case tallies must be including flu (and colds) cases as there were no flu cases recorded in the US after week 14 this year (~April). In a year of very hot temperatures, I don’t recall any discussions or data for heat illnesses/deaths either. Together these two absences indicate the ‘cases’ total is greatly exaggerated as were the death totals.

There are clearly inconsistencies in the flu data too re ‘positives’ and ‘cases’.

Wake up Americans, you’ve been had again by bad actors with agendas.

Doug Huffman
Reply to  Bob Weber
October 29, 2020 6:49 am

FauXi! Please, faux FauXi the Chinese Witch-doctor.

He should avoid ad-hockery as should we all. Make his argument and step away.

The extended narrative ‘argument’ is precisely the witch-doctors tool, and if you don’t believe that then you haven’t listened to all of the argument.

Tune in next week, same time and same frequency. If you call in the next thirty minutes we have a RonCo miracle that slices and dices in three different ways.

Reply to  Bob Weber
October 29, 2020 7:38 am

Mr, Weber
Flu deaths are estimated by the CDC using a computer model

Most doctors have always believed their estimates are too high.

Flu doesn’t actually kill anyone == people die from major organ failures — flu was not one of 110 causes of death on the CDC list in 2019

So it should be expected that CDC flu deaths counts are overestimated because they have ALWAYS been overestimated.

People have not been had by bad actors, they have been misinformed by government bureaucrats doing what they always do.

Best example is Dr. Grouchy, who should have retired decades ago. Yet another self-proclaimed government bureaucrat “expert” … even though we are in the middle of a pandemic so there are no COVID experts yet.

andwhether that

Bob Weber
Reply to  Richard Greene
October 29, 2020 8:59 am

The point is Richard the flu data is absent for the US after April. I couldn’t find the similar graphic link for 2019 that was included in Tony Heller’s video which clearly shows flu cases all year in 2019 that increased into the fall season normally.

It’s logical to me that the flu numbers must have been counted as CV19 this year after April, as evidenced by the absence of all flu cases for the US after April in the WHO data, just like there were no or few heat illnesses/deaths reported. This is indirect evidence of data manipulation and misattribution that allows for the lying and misleading by omission which makes Dr. Fauci a bad actor, because he should know better than to allow jacked up case numbers.

It’s unethical, period. The CDC obviously has overinflated CV19 numbers with ‘cases’ from several other causes. The already questionable positive ‘tests’ results are picking up natural responses to factors other than CV19. In simpler words, the published numbers are rigged to produce more CV19 ‘cases’ which don’t actually exist, because CV19 hasn’t been isolated so PCR tests can’t be accurately measuring CV19. Don’t be fooled.

Steve Case
October 29, 2020 6:31 am

How will the COVID pandemic and huge numbers of mail-in ballots change the story?

Here’s a snapshot of my mail in ballot & envelope from the August election in Wisconsin:
comment image
As pointed out in the image, anyone handling mail-in ballots knows who filled them out. I doesn’t take a genius to figure out that along the way to being finally scanned in, people would have the opportunity to influence that ballot’s chances of being counted. There are no doubt creative ways other than chucking it into the burn bag to make sure a ballot is rejected.

I will be voting in person this coming Tuesday. No one but me will feed my ballot into the scanner.

Doug Huffman
Reply to  Steve Case
October 29, 2020 6:51 am

Thank you, fellow Sconnie, for your care. From 54245.

Reply to  Steve Case
October 29, 2020 8:08 am

Apparently “Can I change my vote” is trending strongly on Google.

I was surprised to read that there are a few locations where you can change your vote.

Reply to  Steve Case
October 29, 2020 11:17 pm

Whether or not a ballot has any indication of the voter’s Party and identity, depends on the state in which you live. Where I live, the mail-in envelope has no identifying information unless you put your return address on it. The voter inserts the ballot into another envelope which you sign on the outside for voter signature verification. (In my county, they do check because I got a call one year with them questioning it. I had to go to the Election Board to confirm the ballot belonged to me for it to be counted. They also caught a guy who voted by mail and in person. It was determined he had Alzheimer’s and forgot he mailed in his ballot.)
The ballot is then separated from that envelope and put through the scanner. I suppose somone could look at the ballot at that time, but I doubt it happens where I live, anyway.
We have mail-in voting for our non-Presidential year elections. It saves a lot of money. I don’t trust the Post Office and take my ballot to the drop box outside the County Election offices and use it.
I was shocked to learn some other states have the Party of the voter on the outside. In Iowa, I think it was, just last month, the Democrat Party was sending out filled in ballots to registered Democrats “for convenience”. I’d never heard of such a thing. It was challenged in court and ruled illegal and they had to send out blank ballots.
We did have an issue on one of the Reservations and a gal was caught filling out 200 mail-in ballots.
Integrity in the vote is fairly easy to achieve if the Party in power in a state wants it. Unfortuantely, many Democrat run states don’t seem to want it.

Laws of Nature
October 29, 2020 6:41 am

Whom good weather would favor when there is a sitting president who´s campaign and party worked with an unprecedented fanaticism to suppress voting!
That is very disgusting and shows a fundamental misunderstanding of democracy by anybody involved!
How about: “I Disapprove of What You Say, But I Will Defend to the Death Your Right to Say It!”
(Which is actually from Hall and not Voltaire as I learned today)
In that sense I am very happy there will be sunshine and hope no one catches Corona because they vote!


Reply to  Laws of Nature
October 29, 2020 11:30 pm

Suppress voting or prevent voter fraud?
Biden’s so senile he’s even telling the truth!
“We’ve put together, and you guys did it for President Obama’s administration before this, we’ve put together i think the most extensive and inclusive VOTER FRAUD ORGANIZATION in the history of American politics.”

REVEALED: Election Watchdog Finds Whopping 350,000 Dead People on Voter Rolls in Dozens of States

Memory sticks used to program Philly’s voting machines were stolen from elections warehouse
Licenses, ID Cards Sold to Illegal Aliens by Corrupt State Workers Used for Voter Fraud
AUGUST 08, 2017

Democrats Are Destroying Our Election On PURPOSE, Leftists Sending Out BUNK Mail In Voter Forms
Half a million incorrect absentee ballot applications sent across Virginia, including to dead people
Wisconsin authorities investigate trays of mail, absentee ballots found in ditch
Detroit officials sound alarms: 72 percent of voting precincts didn’t match number of ballots collected

But balloting problems are not new to the city. In 2016, Detroit experienced precinct count variations; election officials could not reconcile ballot totals for 59 percent of districts following a citywide canvassing of ballot results, “with most of the issues involving too many votes,” the paper reported.

I have lots more example but you get the point, no?

I regret to inform you that while the cures for COVID are highly successful and the death rate is way down, there is no known cure for TDS.

I regret to inform you that there is no known cure, unlike for Covid, for TDS.

Chris Wright
Reply to  KcTaz
October 30, 2020 4:26 am

““We’ve put together, and you guys did it for President Obama’s administration before this, we’ve put together i think the most extensive and inclusive VOTER FRAUD ORGANIZATION in the history of American politics.””

That is an extraordinary admission. However, I would be pretty sure that he was referring to an organisation whose purpose was to *stop* voter fraud. But his obviously bad wording is just more evidence that his cognitive abilities are very poor. Sadly, Joe Biden may be suffering from early dementia. Although you won’t see it on the mainstream media, there are numerous instances of mental problems. In a recent speech, when referring to his opponent he used the name “George….”, obviously still thinking he was up against Geoge W. Bush. After getting off an aircraft he turned to point and wave. Unfortunately he wasn’t waving at the crowd – he was waving at an empty field. There are many more such examples.

I wouldn’t wish dementia on my worst enemy – my sister died of it a year ago. But he is clearly mentally unfit to be president.

It is shocking to see how the mainstream media and FaceTwit have been shielding the Democrats from bad news – and that includes Hunter Biden’s laptop. The emails clearly show that Biden has been consistently lying about his business activities in relation to the Ukraine, and in other matters. In one email Joe Biden is named as “The Big Guy” who was to get 10% of the money from a million dollar deal. Another email proves that he actually met officials from the Ukrainian company. In a speech Biden actually joked how he got the Ukrainian investigator – who was investigating the same corrupt company providing the payouts to Hunter and Joe – fired.

Fortunately the signs are that President Trump is going to win possibly with a bigger margin than last time (he is doing very well according to the early voting returns, which should theoretically be greatly favouring the Democrats). I certainly hope so. He’s not perfect but I think President Trump is several million times better than Joe Biden. Trump has huge accomplishments from his first term, particularly the economy (the US just posted 33% GDP growth for the last quarter, almost wiping out the corona losses from the previous quarter). There are also diplomatic accomplishments including the Middle East peace agreements with Israel. Oh, yes, and he took the US out of the Paris suicide pact.

All I can say is: good luck Donald Trump!

Doug Huffman
October 29, 2020 6:44 am

I will crawl on hands and knees through a mile of broken glass in the rain wearing a face-pantie, and Burqa to vote on the appointed day in person and watch my ballot properly processed.

Bruce Cobb
October 29, 2020 6:54 am

With Covid, most of the “rules of thumb”, or ideas about what is “normal” fly out the window, however a high voter turnout will likely still favor Democrats. The question is whether the absentee ballots push voter participation significantly higher. It sounds like lots of folks, for whatever reason, have been sitting on their absentee ballots, not turning them in, creating a time-crunch for them and possibly having to vote in person after all, which they may not want to do. My guess is that voter participation will end up being higher than usual, but not significantly so. The choice isn’t a palatable one. I can’t stand Trump. He’s an uneducated moronic lying narcissist, but I voted for him anyway.

Reply to  Bruce Cobb
October 29, 2020 7:05 am

Voting basrd on policies and not personality. The mature thing to do.

Reply to  Rah
October 29, 2020 8:56 am

Personality has to inform your decision. After all, if someone is a confirmed liar, how do you know he/she is telling the truth about what policies they intend to implement?

Gary Pearse
Reply to  MarkW
October 29, 2020 10:18 am

Simple. Past performance.

Reply to  MarkW
October 29, 2020 10:49 am

Integrity certainly has to be considered. But this year for POTUS and down the national ballot it is less of an issue for most because the contrast in policies is so clear.

Bruce Cobb
Reply to  Rah
October 29, 2020 1:15 pm

Yep, the Dems actually seem to hate America, and want to destroy it. Their anti-fossil fuel stance would surely suggest that, as well as their willingness to hand over US sovereignty to the UN.

Damiel kampo
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
October 29, 2020 6:31 pm

Trump is Better then China $$$$$$$$ joe and Coke head hunter 😂😂

Kevin A
October 29, 2020 7:27 am

Warm weather: Record-Breaking 800 Million Americans Expected To Vote In 2020 Election

Reply to  Kevin A
October 29, 2020 11:36 pm

Kevin, I figured that was either from the Babylon Bee or a Joe Biden statement with his usual grasp for numbers.

Biden said a few months ago that 150 m died from guns. He added 200 m dead from COVID, which means the USA has no people left alive since the population is estimated to be or, to have been, 347 million!
Sad for the Nat. Am.s that they are all dead, too, and can’t reclaim the land

October 29, 2020 7:47 am
Mike Dubrasich
Reply to  MarkW
October 29, 2020 10:03 am

We need a Special Prosecutor to investigate the Biden Corruption Family, with 50 or so experienced prosecutorial staff, $60 million budget, and two years to rake him over the coals. There should be daily leaks of dirt to the Media, and the whole process should end in impeachment, conviction, and incarceration.

That’s assuming the Joe Camel ticket wins. If it doesn’t, scratch the impeachment part but not the rest of it.

Reply to  Mike Dubrasich
October 29, 2020 10:21 am

If sleepy Joe wins, you can scratch the special prosecutor part as well.

Rich Davis
Reply to  MarkW
October 29, 2020 4:21 pm

And the Constitution, and the country.

Reply to  MarkW
October 29, 2020 6:55 pm

Not so. A Special Prosecutor can be appointed anytime before Inauguration and by law the wheels are set in motion and no politician can stop the investigation. That’s the beauty/insanity of that particular law.

Reply to  brians356
October 29, 2020 9:12 pm

But if nobody cooperates with the special prosecutor, the investigation will go nowhere.

Damiel kampo
Reply to  MarkW
October 29, 2020 6:34 pm

Yes Thank you 😊😊well pointed out !!!!!!

October 29, 2020 8:03 am

Heading into the terminal from Seward, NE on a team run as I write this. I will vote early in person today. Took the 3rd and 4th off as vacation just in case because they’ve been keeping this truck driver on the road.

October 29, 2020 8:22 am

Regarding telephone polls, I noticed an extreme uptick in polling contacts ever since I re-registered with a no party preference. The uptick was amazing from never being contacted before to being contacted two or three times each election on different issues. Hardly a random occurrence in my mind.

So I decided due to the irritating nature of their cold calling interruptions, that whenever anyone being paid contacts me uninvited for my opinion, I always tell them the opposite of what I think in hopes that they will ultimately go away. I don’t think I’m the only one who does this.

Peter W
October 29, 2020 8:24 am

I received a most amusing “poll” call a few days ago. Would I be voting Democrat, Republican, or Independent? (Note which option was offered first!) Press 1 for Democrat, press 2 for Republican, press 3 for Independent. (Again, note which option was offered first.)

I pressed 2. I was asked again, same options, same order, same response. I was asked a third time, everything the same, and yet again, a fourth time, everything the same again. There was about a half minute of silence, and finally the dial tone. I am still chuckling to myself in amusement!

(Resident of Florida.)

Damiel kampo
Reply to  Peter W
October 29, 2020 6:38 pm

God Bless You !!

October 29, 2020 8:43 am

Bring out your dead. Bring out your dead… Chicago.

October 29, 2020 8:54 am

The weather doesn’t matter in California – we are a one-party state – Democrats always win.

John F Hultquist
October 29, 2020 8:54 am

I commented on Cliff’s blog, so won’t repeat.

However, I will note that Cliff and I live in Washington State, where early vote-by-mail action began about 40 years ago. Eleven (11) years ago voting moved to a mail-out and mail-back (or drop in a box) system. The prior system with polling stations, people, lines, and a sticker saying “I voted”, also had us finish by sliding our ballot into a locked box.
I miss the sticker.

Jeff Alberts
October 29, 2020 9:36 am

“I helped him, but this got me thinking about the weather on election day, particularly since we are now close enough in time to have some skill.”

HAHAHA Now that right there is funny!

Gary Pearse
October 29, 2020 10:58 am

I’ve gone on record in earlier threads with the conviction that, despite the largely MSM created sharp division on political affiliations, a large number of Democrats, particularly business people, elderly with 401Ks, and decent folk who don’t like the Democrat “Summer of Love” riots, burning cars, killing and looting by anarchists, defunding police, etc …with actually no explainable grievance to warrant such off the wall behavior, are going to vote for Trump in droves.

California, New York, Oregon, Washington State and Northeast states, even Delaware are going to begin a decisive political reset if not complete changeover. The US elections and then state and city elections will reveal this paradigm change. Were I a staunch Democrat (I’m not even American), I would be totally teed off at the performance of Governors, Mayors, Senators, House reps and, most of all, for the venal, mentally handicapped winner of the Dem’s candidate for president, drawn from over a dozen callow, shallow anti-American, treasonous nobodies (with the exception of Bernie who is not possible to elect in America, at least is the best they had).

This is all obvious, or the human race is doomed.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Gary Pearse
October 29, 2020 1:27 pm

They may not vote for Trump, but they certainly could vote R in local elections.

Gary Pearse
October 29, 2020 11:13 am

Mods why was my long comment on Democrats moving to Trump removed with the link:

Mark Broderick
Reply to  Gary Pearse
October 29, 2020 1:41 pm

takes a little time now…

October 29, 2020 11:20 am

I guess tear gas does not show up on radar (?)

Reply to  ResourceGuy
October 29, 2020 1:41 pm

Hahaha, you nailed it.

October 29, 2020 12:43 pm

What was the odds on a riot?

High Treason
October 29, 2020 12:55 pm

It is time for the penny-drop moment. The Emperor is wearing no clothes. Mainstream media polls are rigged and OWNED, like mainstream media. With the corruption scandal surrounding Biden and his total incoherence, seriously, how can he be forging ahead?
The fake polls are a cover for what will be wide spread electoral fraud. REAL polling should be a landslide to Trump, but if millions of fake votes are stuffed in to the system, it will skew the vote and the People would be expecting demented Joe to win.
What is interesting is how many highly educated people are fooled by Trump Derangement Syndrome and being fooled that Trump is responsible for the COVID scamdemic. He put lockdown measures in to the hands of the States. It is individual states that were responsible.
Make no mistake-this is the most important election in history. If you love the US, you MUST cast your vote.
If Biden wins, we here in Australia are in mortal peril- Biden will allow Australia to be taken over by China. They will promise they won’t slaughter us, but with their track record, don’t hold your breath.

Damiel kampo
Reply to  High Treason
October 29, 2020 6:44 pm

DRight on Mate !!!

Reply to  High Treason
October 29, 2020 11:39 pm

“The fake polls are a cover for what will be wide spread electoral fraud.”

That is exactly what I’ve been thinking, High Treason.

October 29, 2020 1:27 pm

I really can’t understand “undecided” voters. The contrasts are so stark between presidential candidates and their parties platforms the choices should be easy.

Either you support the police or you don’t.

Either you believe the PRC is a threat to the US and world peace or you don’t.

Either you believe in the right to bear arms or you don’t.

Either you believe court packing is a good idea or you don’t.

Either you you believe in securing the borders and controlling immigration or you don’t.

Either you believe that making Washington DC and Puerto Rico states is a good idea or you don’t.

Either you believe there was an attempted coup and that the perpetrators must be punished to try and dissuade those that may try something like that again, or you don’t.

Either you believe that the FBI and US intelligence agencies should be nonpartisan in their activities or you don’t.

Either you support Israel and believe Iran to be a threat to world peace that needs to be isolated as much as possible in order to bring on a change or you don’t.

Either you believe that “One Nation Under God” should remain in the pledge of allegiance and the flag does not stand for racism or you don’t.

Either you want to continue to live in a Republic or believe it all must be torn down and want to start all over again.

Either you want more jobs here or you don’t mind exporting them.

Either you believe that a “New Green Deal” will bring economic prosperity and help prevent catastrophic climate change or you don’t.

Either you believe that fossil fuels can be replaced by windmills and solar panels or you don’t.

Reply to  rah
October 29, 2020 4:51 pm

Unfortunately, there is a growing segment of the population who only want to make sure that their government checks arrive on time.

Patrick MJD
October 29, 2020 5:06 pm

According to reports here in Australia, 80 million people have already voted via post. I have not read anything with regards to who most votes have gone to so far. But, as I understand, as in 2016 where more states voted for Clinton, it’s the Electoral College vote is where the PotUS is decided.

John F Hultquist
Reply to  Patrick MJD
October 29, 2020 5:45 pm

True about the Electoral College.
A good statement is “that’s how the games are played.”

See the entry for – 1960 World Series – on Wikipedia
Despite losing the series, the Yankees scored 55 runs, the most runs scored by any one team in World Series history, and more than twice as many as the Pirates, who scored 27.

The US presidential election is not a single national voting contest.
States are still important in the USA.

Damiel kampo
October 29, 2020 6:13 pm

Vote joe he REALY knows how to make money in China 😀

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