Where’s the sea ice? 3 reasons the Arctic freeze is unseasonably late and why it matters

Mark Serreze, University of Colorado Boulder

With the setting of the sun and the onset of polar darkness, the Arctic Ocean would normally be crusted with sea ice along the Siberian coast by now. But this year, the water is still open.

I’ve watched the region’s transformations since the 1980s as an Arctic climate scientist and, since 2008, as director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center. I can tell you, this is not normal. There’s so much more heat in the ocean now than there used to be that the pattern of autumn ice growth has been completely disrupted.

To understand what’s happening to the sea ice this year and why it’s a problem, let’s look back at the summer and into the Arctic Ocean itself.

Siberia’s 100-degree summer

The summer melt season in the Arctic started early. A Siberian heat wave in June pushed air temperatures over 100 degrees Fahrenheit at Verkhoyansk, Russia, for the first time on record, and unusual heat extended over much of the Arctic for weeks.

The Arctic as a whole this past summer was at its warmest since at least 1979, when satellite measurements started providing data allowing for full coverage of the Arctic.

With that heat, large areas of sea ice melted out early, and that melting launched a feedback process: The loss of reflective sea ice exposed dark open ocean, which readily absorbs the sun’s heat, promoting even more ice melt.

The Northern Sea Route, along the Russian coast, was essentially free of ice by the middle of July. That may be a dream for shipping interests, but it’s bad news for the rest of the planet.

Warmth sneaks in underwater

The warm summer is only part of the explanation for this year’s unusual sea ice levels.

Streams of warmer water from the Atlantic Ocean flow into the Arctic at the Barents Sea. This warmer, saltier Atlantic water is usually fairly deep under the more buoyant Arctic water at the surface. Lately, however, the Atlantic water has been creeping up. That heat in the Atlantic water is helping to keep ice from forming and melting existing sea ice from below.

It’s a process called “Atlantification”. The ice is now getting hit both from the top by a warming atmosphere and at the bottom by a warming ocean. It’s a real double whammy.

While we’re still trying to catch up with all of the processes leading to Atlantification, it’s here and it’s likely to get stronger. https://www.youtube.com/embed/C17-Z_sl5cI?wmode=transparent&start=0

Climate change’s assault on sea ice

In the background of all of this is global climate change.

The Arctic sea ice extent and thickness have been dropping for decades as global temperatures rise. This year, when the ice reached its minimum extent in September, it was the second lowest on record, just behind that of 2012.

As the Arctic loses ice and the ocean absorbs more solar radiation, global warming is amplified. That can affect ocean circulation, weather patterns and Arctic ecosystems spanning the food chain, from phytoplankton all the way to top predators.

On the Atlantic side of the Arctic, open water this year extended to within 5 degrees of the North Pole. The new Russian Icebreaker Arktika, on its maiden voyage, found easy sailing all the way to the North Pole. A goal of its voyage was to test how the nuclear-powered ship handled thick ice, but instead of the hoped-for 3-meter-thick ice, most of the ice was in a loose pack. It was little more than 1 meter thick, offering little resistance.

For sea ice to build up again this year, the upper layer of the Arctic Ocean needs to lose the excess heat it picked up during summer.

The pattern of regional anomalies in ice extent is different each year, reflecting influences like regional patterns of temperature and winds. But today, it’s superimposed on the overall thinning of the ice as global temperatures rise. Had the same atmospheric patterns driving this year’s big ice loss off Siberia happened 30 years ago, the impact would have been much less, as the ice was more resilient then and could have taken a punch. Now it can’t.

Is sea ice headed for a tipping point?

The decay of the Arctic sea ice cover shows no sign of stopping. There probably won’t be a clear tipping point for the sea ice, though.

Research so far suggests we’ll stay on the current path, with the amount of ice declining and weather systems more easily disrupting the ice because it’s thinner and weaker than it used to be. https://www.youtube.com/embed/vtM9KTVGFVw?wmode=transparent&start=0

The bigger picture

This year’s events in the Arctic are just part of the climate change story of 2020.

Global average temperatures have been at or near record highs since January. The West has been both hot and dry – the perfect recipe for massive wildfires – and warm water in the Gulf of Mexico has helped fuel more tropical storms in the Atlantic than there are letters in the alphabet. If you’ve been ignoring climate change and hoping that it will just go away, now would be an appropriate time to pay attention.

Mark Serreze, Research Professor of Geography and Director, National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado Boulder

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

288 thoughts on “Where’s the sea ice? 3 reasons the Arctic freeze is unseasonably late and why it matters

    • Except a record low extent for this date… truly exceptionally low for the Laptev.

      (and not just for the satellite record either: the Soviet/Russian records going back to 1933 are available and they show this year is far lower on Russian side than any date since 1933…)

      • Hi Griffo
        It is likely to be lower the next year too, and possibly another one. It is quasi-harmonic natural oscillation at its ~70 years periodicity minimum, so is H. Hemisphere’s temperature at it’s maximum, look at the graph and calm down.
        http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/ArcticIce.htm
        No surprise, just sit back and enjoy the warmer climate while it lasts

        • All Sereze’s graph shows is that two cherry picked years of the 2011-2019 period were lower than the average of that decade. What does that tell us about all the other years he chose NOT to show us?

          Is sea ice headed for a tipping point?

          The decay of the Arctic sea ice cover shows no sign of stopping. There probably won’t be a clear tipping point for the sea ice, though.
          Research so far suggests we’ll stay on the current path, with the amount of ice declining ….

          WOW, that should be headline news. We’d all been brainwashed into believing that it had already hit the tipping in 1997 and it was an ever accelerating “death spiral” ever since.

          So now even the alarmists at Boulder have had to admit that we are not seeing “run away melting”. They winding their necks in a bit an claiming just a continued decline. Presumably one of the dastardly “trends”. If ever you can fit a straight line using Excel trend fitter, it is formal proof that said linear trend will continue indefinately are you can bet the farm ( or the national economy for that matter ) on it doing so.

        • Yes, you can make a straight-line decline look like part of sine function if you make the wavelength long enough.

          • Andydo
            I was going to say the same thing, except you said it first and I didn’t want to insult Vuk, because I loved his last line:
            ” just sit back and enjoy the warmer climate while it lasts”

        • Oh, come on! There’s clearly an effect over and above any natural cycle.

          If its a cycle, why is this one so low? Lower than the last low point, by miles?

          • RUBBISH.. It is MUCH HIGHER than for most of the last 10,000 years

            WHY is it SO HIGH, griff ?????

            Stop your idiotic natural climate change denial, griff

          • 850 AD to 1250 AD Greenland was warm enough to have FORESTS (Viking graves have been found with tree roots grown through them), grapes, and to raise barley.
            4 CENTURIES of “climate changed” in Greenland (wasn’t local, they were also growing grain crops in Norway) and the world didn’t end in flames.
            Figure it out.

          • Griff is the 5,000 year old man. He remembers all previous cycles and took detailed measurements so he could worry about everything at an appropriate time. Or else he thinks that 100 years is along time to the Earth. Or else he’s just another Socialist determined to destroy Western civilization.

      • Except that the Laptev Sea has had a jetstream over it for almost all of October and a lot of September, A jetstream coming from the southern edge of Russia and dragging lots of warm air with it.

        • I wish that jetstream would bring us some of your so called “warm air”.

          It’s friggin freezing every day in the middle (here in URAL) and the wind is from the south for the last weeks…At night it’s already down to -6 and snow has already fallen like clockwork, just like it does every year in mid October.

          Better know what you are on about!
          In the Baltic they already have the communal heating on, and I am not looking forward at all to my trip up there by the sea.
          I don’t care what the numpties are writing.
          The only winter without Baltic sea ice that I can remember was last year.

          I have no doubt it will freeze solid and they can open the ice roads they didn’t manage last year come january again.

      • I will wager $10,000 in an escrow account that Arctic sea ice formation from October 21st through March 21st, 2021 will be in the Top 3 since 1979.

        Any takers?

        • Pillage Ridiot
          The top three
          largest areas…. OR
          lowest areas….OR
          most volume….OR
          Least volume……….?
          Just asking, in case you’re wearing flip – flops

        • In July 2020 the Arctic Ocean was up to 1.4C cooler than in July 2002 according to MODIS SST data. Over the 20 years, the area averaged SST reduced by 0.2C.
          https://1drv.ms/u/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNg3GJZzfUccCa6osu

          Note that it has not changed at the equator because it cannot. It is tightly controlled to its current maximum by an incredibly powerful thermostat known as Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE); the reason for monsoons and cyclones.

        • Note that the two highest recent Arctic sea ice minima where in 2013 and 2014, after the record low of 2012.

          And 2017 and 2018 were well above the low year of 2016.

          And 2008 was higher than the low year of 2007, while 2009 was slightly above 2013 and 2014.

          However the low year of 2019 was followed by the second lowest 2020, thanks to a Super El Nino in 2015-16 and another big one in 2019-20.

          But now we’re in a La Nina and open Arctic waters are radiating heat to the air and on to space.

      • Let us all simply ignore griff, it is not worth it to rebut him and he will not change, don’t encourage the trolls.

          • When you observe something like this, it’s something else, beyond lack of education or stupidity even, so go easy on him if you can. It’s not going to change, and it does serve a purpose, albeit not the one intended.

        • The problem is that any idiocy that’s not refuted stands as the final word.
          What we need is to form an anti-griff collective so that we can assign a single person per week to refute the griff collectives nonsense. That way they can’t take over threads.

          • I reckon Griff is really Eric – just making sure we’re paying attention and keep practicing our rebuttals…

          • Our friend Griffo is actually a climate sceptic who is playing a ‘devils advocate’. His fallacies/ sophisms are offered in order to make sure true sceptics are still ‘on the ball’.

          • Ah yes! The collective! We will divide up the work and there will be no rewards as no one will really work. Then we will institute trials in order to figure out who to blame for the failures of our system. We will root out these running dogs ruthlessly ( unless we have a Ruth out there).
            The problem is I think Griff might be the only expertise we have on collectives and fabricating evidence. What to do, what to do?

        • griff is not trying to convince any of the regulars here. He is hoping to scare off people who are trying to learn more about whether the climate catastrophe is a hoax or not. Therefore it’s better to respond to him by posting information about failed climate forecasts adjacent to his comments. For example documentation about the failed predictions that the Arctic would be ice free by 2013, or 2014, or 2015, or 2016, or 2018: https://cei.org/blog/wrong-again-50-years-failed-eco-pocalyptic-predictions

        • “Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.”
          — Samuel Clemens

        • THERE IS NO GRIFTER !
          HE IS A FIGNEWTON OF THE IMAGINATION !
          The Grifter is a fictional character created in the warped mind of out beloved moderator, formerly known as Johnny Rotten, now respectable as Charles “lefty” Rotter, although no one knows where the “lefty” came from.

          Mr Rotten uses the Griff moniker to still up page views at this website, like feeding raw meat to lions. For inspiration, Mr. Rotter uses an old TV comedy character created by Johnny Carson long ago, Floyd R. Turbo, but reversing the politics from conservative to leftist, for the “beloved” Griff character.

          This information has been verified — proven true — by me reading it on the internet, which was invented by Al Gore, one of the most honest men in human history, now better known as a climate perfesser: Al “the climate blinp” Gore.
          This comment is Moderator Bait.

          • I have often thought the very same thing.

            I too think it’s just a way to stir the pot, a fun game, a way to get us all talking! It works doesn’t it.

        • I love Griff. He makes these threads much more fun to read. Comment on Griff, if only for my enjoyment.

      • Griff what caused the previous low extent that took place before the discovery of fossil fuel for energy? Enlighten us from you George Soros Stylebook.

      • griff hunts through the 10’s of thousands of data point for weather in the arctic so that they can find one that is going in the direction they are paid to push.

        • Hello? This is 3.2 million less square kilometres of ice than the 1990s average… that really isn’t a n isolated data point, is it?

          • Hellooooo , there is FAR MORE Arctic sea ice than for most of the last 10,000 years

            Late 1970s and the LIA were isolated points

            Again……

            WHY do you prefer Arctic sea ice to Arctic sea LIFE.

            Is it just that you HATE life so much ?

            And again

            Do you have ANY EVIDENCE at all that the highly beneficial drop in Arctic sea ice from the extreme highs of the LIA and late 1970s has any human causation?

      • Period B extended from the mid-1950s to the mid1980s and was a period of generally increasing or stable summer sea ice extent.

        This retreat has not been constant: over the region as a whole during summer, there have been two periods of retreat (periods A and C) separated by a period of partial recovery (period B).

        Our results show that sea ice was most extensive at the start of the record and has since experienced two periods of decline, evident in the summer means. The first of these was during the 1930s –1950s (period A), and the second began in the mid-1980s and is still ongoing (period C).

        Link

        Explanation period (B).

      • YAWN..

        Its STILL way higher than it has been for MOST of the Holocene

        The current RECOVERY from the extreme highs of the late 1970’s, similar to the Little Ice Age..

        .. has meant that Arctic sea life has made a resurgence.

        The drop in sea ice slightly toward the pre-LIA levels has opened up the food supply for the nearly extinct Bowhead Whale, and they are returning to the waters around Svalbard.

        https://partner.sciencenorway.no/arctic-ocean-forskningno-fram-centre/the-ice-retreats–whale-food-returns/1401824

        The Blue Mussel is also making a return, having been absent for a few thousand years, apart from a brief stint during the MWP.

        https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0959683617715701?journalCode=hola

        Many other species of whale are also returning now that the sea ice extent has dropped from the extreme highs of the LIA. Whales cannot swim on ice. !

        https://blog.poseidonexpeditions.com/whales-of-svalbard/

        Great thing is, that because of fossil fuels and plastics, they will no longer be hunted for whale blubber for lamps and for whale bone.

        Hopefully the Arctic doesn’t re-freeze too much in the next AMO cycle, and these glorious creatures get a chance to survive and multiply.

        From the second link..
        “Shallow marine molluscs that are today extinct close to Svalbard, because of the cold climate, are found in deposits there dating to the early Holocene. The most warmth-demanding species found, Zirfaea crispata, currently has a northern limit 1000 km farther south, indicating that August temperatures on Svalbard were 6°C warmer at around 10.2–9.2 cal. ka BP, when this species lived there. The blue mussel, Mytilus edulis, returned to Svalbard in 2004 following recent warming, and after almost 4000 years of absence, excluding a short re-appearance during the Medieval Warm Period 900 years ago.

        Arctic is so much COOLER than it was for most of the Holocene, which explains why there is still so much sea ice up there.

        You would think that someone like Sereeze would not be such a climate change DENIER, and would look more at the facts and longer term history of Arctic sea ice, and realise it is still in the top 10% of the last 10,000 years rather that making stupid yabbering noises.

      • The article is leftist climate scaremongering, not real science, and not worthy of space here. It is gloom and doom nonsense. Yet another leftist biased “perfesser”, always seeing gloom and doom ahead … unless leftists rule the world. That’s why the grifter loves this opinion piece masquerading as real science.

        Interesting how few numbers are in this essay — one chart that does not match the data I found, and posted at the link below. and one number — the high temperature in some Russian town that just happened to be slightly above the prior record for that town … which the author neglected to mention. Yes, the high temperature on ONE day of the year, in ONE Russian town, tells us EVERYTHING we need to know about the Arctic climate? … Not.

        There was lots of sea ice in 2017 — was there no global warming then?

        2020 has been similar to 2019 so far — 2019 finished the winter season with a large gain of sea ice extent. Let’s wait until the winter is over. And even if 2020 ends up with a lower sea ice extent than 2019, then so what? Our planet has been in an intermittent global warming trend since the 1690s. And sea level has been increasing for 20000, years … How is Arctic ice melting a danger to anyone.

        Arctic ice extent has barely changed in 14 years based on data from mid-October from MASIE:
        https://elonionbloggle.blogspot.com/2020/10/artic-ice-is-melting-and-then-it-comes.html

      • Can you add a link to the original data?

        SEA LEVELS

        RISING

        Science has uncovered in-

        disputable evidence that the

        level of our oceans is rising.

        This is the result of a sudden

        and unexpected increase in our planet’s northern tempera-tures. Ice masses are melting

        rapidly away. If the rate of

        thawing continues, civilisation

        near the sea may be sub-

        merged and profound changes

        be wrought in climate, soil, sea and the race itself. The whole face of the earth may be moving towards a vast transformation.

        The discovery that the earth

        is getting warmer was made by

        Professor Hans Ahlmann, of

        Stockholm University, while he was studying glaciers. His facts have beneficent as well as alarming aspects. Here is what he found:—

        Air temperatures over much

        of the Arctic and sub-Antartic

        have soared as much as 10 de-

        grees since 1919, a rise that is more noticeable in winter than in summer.

        Ocean temperature readings

        have climbed from three to five

        degrees in a score of years.

        February sea temperatures in

        parts of the Arctic were eight degrees higher on the average.

        A glacier on Spitsbergen is

        losing ice through melting at the rate of 30,000,000 tons a

        year. As late as 1910 glacier

        ice figured far down a Nor-

        wegian valley. Today it has completely vanished. All gla-

        ciers that Professor Ahlmann

        measured are sinking rapidly.

        Air photography over the Rus-sian sector of the Arctic showed a reduction of drift

        ice of more than 1,000,000 tons

        in 20 years. On the Siberian

        mainland the limit of frozen

        earth has been retreating

        dozens of miles towards the

        pole annually. As a result of

        all this, the green of conifer

        forests is beginning to mantle

        once barren northern wastes.

        This may mean new supplies

        of timber and pulpwood.

        Professor Ahlmann’s calcu-

        lations show that the annual

        disappearance of ice and snow from the polar cap is raising

        the global sea level about one

        foot every 200 years. This is

        a slow rise. But it shows ac-

        celeration from year to year.

        “If this accelerated rate is maintained it can mean pro-found changes to sea-level communities and to the earth’s

        weather,” the Professor avers.

        “It could submerge seaports

        such as London, Singapore,

        Buenos Aires, forcing their in-

        habitants to flee to higher

        places and causing a widely different distribution of peoples.

        The situation calls for immedi-ate study on an international

        and urgent basis.”—Los An-

        geles “Times”.

      • Except a record low extent for this date… truly exceptionally low for the Laptev.

        (and not just for the satellite record either: the Soviet/Russian records going back to 1933 are available and they show this year is far lower on Russian side than any date since 1933…)

        Keep up the good work Griff. You are one of the most interesting commenters here. Always well informed comments, and on the topic. I have learnt a lot.

        This site wouldhave been a boring echo chamber without you, and a few others.
        /Jan

        • Pity he is always PROVABLE WRONG

          And no, they are NIL-INFORMED comments

          Not backed by anything except AGW mantra

          If you have learnt from griff, your knowledge has gone BACKWARDS in leaps and bounds.

      • Who cares? What possible use is arctic ice? Why are liberals and progressives so terrified of change?

      • The ice free Arctic is going to radiate a whole lot more heat into space during the NH winter than an iced up Arctic. Part of the Earth’s feedback system. What exactly is the worry? And the warmer the water, the more heat radiated out.

      • Steven Mosher October 29, 2020 at 10:35 am
        you dont understand atlantification

        This comment seems to be directed to Mark Serreze.

        _ _ _ _
        Explain this in the context of atlantification:
        It will without doubt have come to your Lordship’s knowledge that a considerable change of climate, inexplicable at present to us, must have taken place in the Circumpolar Regions, by which the severity of the cold that has for centuries past enclosed the seas in the high northern latitudes in an impenetrable barrier of ice has been during the last two years, greatly abated.

        (This) affords ample proof that new sources of warmth have been opened and give us leave to hope that the Arctic Seas may at this time be more accessible than they have been for centuries past, and that discoveries may now be made in them not only interesting to the advancement of science but also to the future intercourse of mankind and the commerce of distant nations.”
        President of the Royal Society, London, to the Admiralty, 20th November, 1817 [13]

        *13 President of the Royal Society, Minutes of Council,
        Volume 8. pp.149-153, Royal Society, London.
        20th November, 1817.

        • For Marxists and Climatistas like Serreze, the past does not exist, except where it can be rewritten.

      • There are MANY, MANY things you do not understand, mosh..

        .. yet you still make stupid comments about them.

      • you dont understand atlantification

        Neither do you, nor does Serreze.

        Perhaps if you both take a look at this you will start to understand:
        http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n_anomaly.uk.php

        Start by asking why +80N mean summer anomaly is stuck at zero since 1960 and what that means. Then ask why +80N mean winter anomaly has been growing since 2000 and not between 1960-2000.

        The Arctic warms when the planet cools. This year the planet has started to cool since August and is likely to cool down for a couple of years. We have the same temperature at this time than in 2017. Next year will probably be the coldest since 2015.

        https://oz4caster.files.wordpress.com/2020/10/d4-gfs-gta-daily-2014-2020-10-28.gif

        • “Start by asking why +80N mean summer anomaly is stuck at zero since 1960…”

          Thats fairly easy, melting ice puts a cap on temperature in summer because of the latent heat of fusion. As long as there is some ice to melt, summer temps will hover around zero.

          “The Arctic warms when the planet cools.”

          Based on what?

          “We have the same temperature at this time than in 2017. Next year will probably be the coldest since 2015.:

          Based on what, other than your 3 year trend? “Coldest” is an interesting choice of words, btw.

          Ignore that:
          a. Arctic temperatures are climbing faster than anywhere else,
          b. this year was another close to record low extent and is, of this date, the lowest,
          c. the pack is thinner than 2012 and more vulnerable to extreme events,
          d. Atlantification is accellerating and the open water is mixing more and
          e. albedo is falling.

          No, its wishful thinking that all this going to just miraculously turn around. As the buffer of melting ice is removed, summers temperatures will also start to climb, feeding back to melt the ice even faster. The days of the Arctic sea ice are well and truly numbered.

          • a. Arctic temperatures are climbing faster than anywhere else,

            Utter BS.. No warming in the Arctic this century except from the 2015 El Nino
            https://i.postimg.cc/mkGFjDMv/UAH_NoPol_2000-Sept2020.png

            b. this year was another close to record low extent and is, of this date, the lowest,
            More utter BS.. Arctic sea ice is still WAY above what it has been for most of the last 10,000 years

            c. the pack is thinner than 2012 and more vulnerable to extreme events,
            SO WHAT.. still far more Arctic sea ice than for most of the last 1-0,000 years, and Arctic sea life is finally returning after being frozen out during the LIA and late 1970s

            d. Atlantification is accellerating and the open water is mixing more and
            More utter BS….. Northern Atlantic has cooled significantly this century

            e. albedo is falling.”
            LOL.. more unsubstantiated garbage

            You know you have absolutely ZERO EVIDENCE of any human causation of the NATURAL variability of Arctic sea ice due to the AMO , and the highly beneficial warming since the LIA.

            1… Do you have any empirical scientific evidence for warming by atmospheric CO2?

            2… In what ways has the global climate changed in the last 50 years , that can be scientifically proven to be of human causation?

            Run and hide again, little evidence-free, scientific non-entity.

          • And a third question for loy to twist and turn and slither trying to avoid answering.

            3… Do you have any evidence at all that the highly beneficial drop in Arctic sea ice from the extreme highs of the LIA and late 1970s has any human causation?

          • Thats fairly easy, melting ice puts a cap on temperature in summer because of the latent heat of fusion. As long as there is some ice to melt, summer temps will hover around zero.

            Wrong. That’s the air temperature at 2 m from ECMWF, that in winter reaches –30°C.
            http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
            The same air temperature that you say is increasing. The same air temperature that in July it was said to have reached +38°C.
            0° anomaly is not 0°C, it has nothing to do with the melting temperature of ice. The average for the Arctic North of 80° is around 2-3°C during the summer, as it was in the 1960s.
            I see you don’t know either.

            Based on what?

            What about this?
            Kobashi, Takuro, et al. “Modern solar maximum forced late twentieth century Greenland cooling.” Geophysical Research Letters 42.14 (2015): 5992-5999.

            Based on what, other than your 3 year trend?

            La Niña, solar minimum, Eurasian autumn snowpack and the QuasiBiennial Oscillation.

            Ignore that:
            a. Arctic temperatures are climbing faster than anywhere else,

            Only in winter. Going from –38 to –33 matters nothing.

            b. this year was another close to record low extent and is, of this date, the lowest,

            Sea ice is decreasing as the planet warms. BFD.

            c. the pack is thinner than 2012 and more vulnerable to extreme events,

            Less ice means the planet cools more efficiently. The ice is an insulator to the ocean-atmosphere temperature exchange.

            d. Atlantification is accellerating and the open water is mixing more and

            Atlantification is a cooling process, not a warming one. The more Atlantification the more heat is diverted to the Arctic instead of Europe.

            e. albedo is falling.

            Albedo is irrelevant because it goes opposite to irradiation. Maximum albedo when minimal irradiation and vice versa.

            its wishful thinking that all this going to just miraculously turn around. As the buffer of melting ice is removed, summers temperatures will also start to climb, feeding back to melt the ice even faster. The days of the Arctic sea ice are well and truly numbered.

            Bulls*hit. You don’t know what you talk about. Sea ice is decreasing because the planet is warming and needs to cool more. The demise of the Arctic sea ice has been wrongly prophesied many times. There would still be plenty of sea ice when everybody alive now has died of old age.

          • fred250

            I’m not interested in defending commenter Loydo: that to do is his problem.
            I write rather concerning your superficial AND incorrect answer to him.

            *
            ” Utter BS.. No warming in the Arctic this century except from the 2015 El Nino… ”

            Sorry, I think the BS is on your side: you are doing manifold cherry-picking here.

            – Firstly, Arctic sea ice isn’t primarily driven by the lower troposphere; it is by the Arctic ocean;
            – Secondly, showing only UAH6.0 introduces a cooling bias; even if RSS4.0 shows a warming bias, it would be fair to present it as well;
            – Third cherry-picking is to restrict your view to half the UAH record;
            – Fourth cherry-picking is to start a trend line from the highest point of the record, what automatically and inevitably leads to a very low trend.

            *
            Here is a more correct description of what happens from UAH’s point of view, by looking at UAH’s complete record:

            https://drive.google.com/file/d/1y9FQtNwfr8pKKHfkGrseTMgqbS5bgnBh/view

            And here is a comparison of UAH6.0 LT and RSS4.0 LT for 60N-82.5N:

            https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dNtppkU8Fco8u4f85WGak-_2kR1tuRVt/view

            The similarity of the running means is a good hint on how few separates the two time series. The difference is no more than a dispute on which NOAA satellite was the right one.

            Maybe that for most WUWT readers, RSS data is wrong, because so many think here that only cooler data can be right. The truth certainly is inbetween.

            *
            Furthermore: didn’t you look at Javier’s post?

            – Didn’t you see the DMI surface data for the satellite era?
            – Didn’t you read DMI’s comments concerning Arctic temperatures above 80N?

            .
            The Arctic region has witnessed a rapid increase in mean temperatures since the beginning of the millennium; Arctic winter temperatures in particular have been up to 8oC above normal during recent years.
            .
            This temperature increase is much higher than the global average, an effect known as Arctic Amplification, and it is primarily driven by albedo feedbacks caused by changes in snow and ice on land and loss of the Arctic sea ice.
            .

            But a look at a comparison of UAH6.0 above 80N with the data provided by a few weather stations there shows how useless it is to use such data, because both time series have only one small 2.5 degree latitude band above 80N:

            https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NLFY7b_jvmY2t9_5QBIJcj9CnfMhizgA/view

            Thus, if you want to see a fair comparison of UAH6.0 LT with RSS and surface data, you have to do it beginning with 60N:

            https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-Zyz99oPVBbXThNbHWGqUEv-zB15YTTY/view

            Linear estimates 1979-2020, in °C / decade:
            – UAH6.0 LT: 0.25 ± 0.02
            – GHCN daily & HadSST3: 0.41 ± 0.02
            – RSS4.0 LT: 0.47 ± 0.02

            As you can see, your claim about ‘no warming in the Arctic’ is completely wrong.

            There are other points subject to contradiction in your comment, but I lack motivation to continue.

            J.-P. D.

          • “No warming in the Arctic this century except from the 2015 El Nino… ””

            This is a TOTALLY CORRECT statement.. DATA shows that to be correct

            Also, the UAH and RSS data show that the ONLY WARMING is at El Nino events.

            If you can’t look at the data and see that is a totally correct statement, you are beyond help.

            Even RSSV$ shows that to be the case, and that’s after the massive data tampering and changes from RSSv3
            https://i.postimg.cc/4NWcZCx9/RSS__v4-v3.3.png

            No warming from 1980-1997 then the El Nino
            https://i.postimg.cc/9Qmp4ZpG/RSS_Before_El_Nino.jpg

            No warming from 2001 -2015 then the El Nino.
            https://i.postimg.cc/pLW7ZK16/RSS_pre_2015.png

            Try not to be as ignorant as Loy and griff !!

            Its not a good look. !

          • “because both time series have only one small 2.5 degree latitude band above 80N:”

            LOL….. again the IGNORANCE shines through..

            The area above 82.5N is only 10.4% of the Arctic Circle and its all water.

            Great to see you using those El Nino events to show the NATURAL warming

            …. because there isn’t any between them.

          • Also UAH goes to 85N, so only misses 4.6% of the Arctic, all sea ice, nearly always.

            Only warming this century has come from the El Nino event

            GET OVER IT !!

          • Thats fairly easy, melting ice puts a cap on temperature in summer because of the latent heat of fusion. As long as there is some ice to melt, summer temps will hover around zero.

            Wrong. That’s the air temperature at 2 m from ECMWF, that in winter reaches –30°C.
            http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
            The same air temperature that you say is increasing. The same air temperature that in July it was said to have reached +38°C.
            0° anomaly is not 0°C, it has nothing to do with the melting temperature of ice. The average for the Arctic North of 80° is around 2-3°C during the summer, as it was in the 1960s.
            I see you don’t know either.

            Your reply is so confused it is difficult to say whether you are right or wrong. I will say for clarification: the reason summer temps (north of 80N – because that is the area used in your link to DMI) remain close to zero is entirely due latent heat of fusion of the melting ice. North of 80N there is nearly always 100% ice. Surface temperatures will not rise much above zero while there is ice to melt.

            I can’t be bothered trying to pry any of your other tightly held, erroneous beliefs out of your clenched fists. Perhaps other than to dissaude you of this myth:
            “Going from –38 to –33 matters nothing.”
            False. Which do think helps create a deeper, harder freeze, more resilient to to next summer’s melt?

          • Arctic albedo is insignificant compared with Antarctic. Most Arctic sea ice lies at high latitude, where, when the sun shines, the albedo of ice differs little from seawater.

            Antarctic sea ice reaches lower latitudes, where there is a difference, and where the sun shines even in winter.

            If CO2 has caused Arctic sea ice to decline since 1979, why has Antarctic ice grown?

          • I will say for clarification: the reason summer temps (north of 80N – because that is the area used in your link to DMI) remain close to zero is entirely due latent heat of fusion of the melting ice.

            Wrong, wrong, wrong. Global heat transport shows the ocean is relevant mainly in the tropics. The bulk of heat transport in mid and high-latitudes is done by the atmosphere.
            https://ccsr.aori.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~masakazu/memo/ncl/erbe-transport.jpg
            Arctic atmosphere warms because there is more meridional transport and receives more warm air from the South.

            The ice is melted mainly by the ocean and the sun. The atmosphere plays almost no role and is warmed by atmosphere transported heat and by the ocean. That’s why global warming and sea-ice melting are decoupled. Sea ice didn’t decrease much during the 80s and early 90s when most of the warming took place.

            You have all the basics wrong. No wonder you don’t understand what is going on.

      • Neither does Chambers dictionary. When it does will be time enough to pay attention.

        Meanwhile we can safely ignore yet another piece of self-serving, scaremongering claptrap. If the current state of the Arctic is such a matter for concern how come H H Lamb didn’t appear relieved when the average temperature fell by more than a full Celsius degree between 1949 and 1979?? A decline from which it has not yet fully recovered.

  1. There was no sea ice in 1817. This information comes from the book Borrow’s Boys which tells the story of Arctic exploration in the 1800s. The lack of ice was reported by whalers who back then had no ‘climate change’ or ‘global warming’ agenda but were simply reporting what they saw. Check it out and explain why this happened 200 years ago. The lack of ice encouraged search for the Northwest Passage and when the Arctic froze up again many lives were lost, including the members of the infamous Frankling Expedition.

    • But:

      “It will without doubt have come to your Lordship’s knowledge that a considerable change of climate, inexplicable at present to us, must have taken place in the Circumpolar Regions, by which the severity of the cold that has for centuries past enclosed the seas in the high northern latitudes in an impenetrable barrier of ice has been during the last two years, greatly abated.

      (This) affords ample proof that new sources of warmth have been opened and give us leave to hope that the Arctic Seas may at this time be more accessible than they have been for centuries past, and that discoveries may now be made in them not only interesting to the advancement of science but also to the future intercourse of mankind and the commerce of distant nations.”
      President of the Royal Society, London, to the Admiralty, 20th November, 1817

      Source: The Top of the World:
      Is the North Pole Turning to Water? by John L. Daly

    • PS

      “A considerable change of climate inexplicable at present to us must have taken place in the Circumpolar Regions, by which the severity of the cold that has for centuries past enclosed the seas in the high northern latitudes in an impenetrable barrier of ice has been during the last two years, greatly abated. 2000 square leagues of ice with which the Greenland Seas between the latitudes of 74° and 80 N have been hitherto covered, has in the last two years entirely disappeared.”

      Apart from the archaic language, this parallels the recent reports of arctic ice melting. However, it’s a draft of a letter to the British government from Council Minutes of the Royal Society, written in 1817

    • Yes first-hand reports from past eras that describe observations about low ice conditions in the Arctic region always seem to be ignored in direct proportion to current low ice observations.

      1922 comes to mind when the herring & sardine catches from northern waters were reported to be alarmingly poor on account of the warmest sea temps evah.

      (Plot spoiler – they cooled off again on their own accord and things returned to “normal”)

    • “The Arctic as a whole this past summer was at its warmest since at least 1979, when satellite measurements started providing data allowing for full coverage of the Arctic.”

      This makes no sense as this was the coldest year of the most recent cold period. Something is off here. They may be looking only at the warm air that had to flow north periodically as cold air masses poured south. I find it hard to believe that colder climate means less ice in the Arctic.

    • Beneficial? Well, for shipping interests, maybe, but as Mark Serreze points out, it’s bad news for the rest of the planet. There will be a lot more plant growth, due to the extra warmth and CO2 and, in most areas, more precipitation. Bears’ habitat will be affected as the tree-line in Canada and Russia moves northwards, so the bears will have to change their habits in order to use the new areas opened up for them. Farmers will have to consider changing the crops they grow, or moving further north to take advantage of the better growing conditions. The list goes on and on, and everyone should be really really scared: SOME THINGS WILL CHANGE!!! OK, so all the changes will actually be improvements, but anyone trying to point that out needs their head read – you can’t get a good headline from improvements.

      • ” it’s bad news for the rest of the planet.”

        NO its is not.

        It takes the planet a tiny bit towards the MWP , RWP and Holocene optimum climates.

        These regions were provable much warmer in the not too distant past.. Trees found under retreating glaciers etc…

        Animals cope with change, otherwise they wouldn’t still be here.

        The highly beneficial drop in sea ice from the extreme levels of the LIA and late 1970 has allowed Arctic sea life to return,

        Bowhead whale, nearly extinct , is making come-back.

    • Exactly what I’ve been telling you all along!

      But that doesn’t make it true 😀 and exceptional ? No, only if you forget the longer record you don’t have 😀

      • Like most warmunists, griff feels he has the right to ignore any data that doesn’t agree with what he’s paid to believe.

      • Of course it is ‘true’. You can compare the maps with satellite pics on Worldview. This is real data. If it isn’t – where’s YOUR better data?

        • ISN’T IT FANTASTIC to see the RECOVERY in Arctic sea ice back toward more normal levels., griff ! 🙂

          Plenty of data showing that current levels of sea ice are WAY ABOVE most of the last 10,000 years

          Why do you think it is a good thing that the Arctic should be frozen solid all years?

          Why do you HATE Arctic sea life some much that you want it to continue to struggle to exist in a frozen wasteland ?

          Why don’t you want the Bowhead Whale to come back from near extinction

          https://partner.sciencenorway.no/arctic-ocean-forskningno-fram-centre/the-ice-retreats–whale-food-returns/1401824

          Your hatred of LIFE must run very deep, griff.

          And of course you have absolutely zero evidence of any human causation in the HIGHLY BENEFICIAL partial return to more normal Holocene extents after the debilitating, life destroying EXTREME highs of the LIA and the late 1970s.

    • We have a very low solar minima, certainly lower than any since we started recording Arctic ice. The deep minimum results in very disorderly jetstreams (this is a long observed phenomenon). The jetstream has been encroaching above the Arctic circle all summer and autumn. Hence the lack of freezing.

      It is also the reason why we have a very cold autumn in N. America and Europe – which you didn’t tell us about.

    • Interesting how ice conditions that aren’t in the slightest out of normal, are being pushed by paid trolls as being exceptional.

    • It is ‘exceptional’, if you can understand the long periods and cycles! It has happened before. It will happen again. Over and over and over. It always returns to ‘normal’ however, as noted in that letter. It ISN’T the end of the world Griff! Sorry.

    • griff
      I would judge that 2012 was exceptional in recent history. Because 2020 is in second place, I would judge it to be almost exceptional — but, no ‘seegar!’

      • Actually, the late 1970’s was the exception

        It was up there with extents of the Little Ice Age anomaly. !

    • Griff, it’s just pointless alarmist opportunistic nonsense seizing on a meaningless moment in time. We all know it is the residual effect of the Siberian heatwave – which happens periodically – as we learnt many decades ago at school.

      Even if Arctic ice levels mattered, clearly they don’t as the world still exists – ice volume is already above last year’s level and central Arctic temperatures have plunged in the last few days with ice now advancing from the Russian shore and from the pack in the ocean.

      Hope this reassures you!

    • Also, it’s currently -21C in Verkhoyansk, and the forecast for EARLY November is between -29C/-37C day/night for the foreseeable, which is all completely ‘normal’.

    • WRONG AGAIN griff.

      It is NOT EXCEPTIONAL except in the fact there is STILL much more Arctic sea ice than there has been for most of the last 10,000 years

      Stop being a rabid, ignorant CLIMATE CHANGE DENIER, griff.

      The benefits of the warming in the Arctic since the LIA have been great

      Not only is the land surface GREENING, but the seas are also springing BACK to life after being TOO COLD and frozen over for much of the last 500 or so years (coldest period of the Holocene)

      The drop in sea ice slightly toward the pre-LIA levels has opened up the food supply for the nearly extinct Bowhead Whale, and they are returning to the waters around Svalbard.

      https://partner.sciencenorway.no/arctic-ocean-forskningno-fram-centre/the-ice-retreats–whale-food-returns/1401824

      The Blue Mussel is also making a return, having been absent for a few thousand years, apart from a brief stint during the MWP.

      https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0959683617715701?journalCode=hola

      Many other species of whale are also returning now that the sea ice extent has dropped from the extreme highs of the LIA. Whales cannot swim on ice. !

      https://blog.poseidonexpeditions.com/whales-of-svalbard/

      Great thing is, that because of fossil fuels and plastics, they will no longer be hunted for whale blubber for lamps and for whale bone.

      Hopefully the Arctic doesn’t re-freeze too much in the next AMO cycle, and these glorious creatures get a chance to survive and multiply.

      Why is it that you HATE Arctic sea life and want to see it driven out by a total frozen Arctic?

      Why is it you prefer sea ice to LIFE.. ?

    • I don’t see that you can say this is anything except… exceptional!

      Well-behaved ice melts when the planet warms. I don’t see anything exceptional about that. What would be exceptional is that the ice would grow as the planet warms.

      But CO2 doesn’t melt the ice. The Rhône Glacier melted hugely between 1850 and 1900 and it wasn’t CO2.
      https://i.imgur.com/fa9yhHJ.png

    • “what I’ve been telling you all along!”

      SO WHAT.! Your comments are irrelevant to reality.

      Serreze shows he has your level of IGNORANCE and CLIMATE CHANGE DENIAL

      That makes him a mental abyss. !

    • Since it has been at least this warm or warmer for several thousand years during the Holocene optimum, with Arctic ice levels lower than now (presumably since we don’t have direct measurements) your definition of exceptional must vary from the standard usage.

    • Bad Andrew, you beat me to it.

      After I read the first few paragraphs of the article (no reason to waste my time on the rest), I thought,

      Yippeeeee, more alarmism from Serreze!!!!!

      Regards,
      Bob

      • Thing is, you would expect someone in his position to know more about Arctic sea ice history, and not constrain his little mind to a period starting from the highest extent outside the Little Ice Age.

        Yes, sea ice has recovered a bit from that anomalous high,

        That is totally a GOOD THING. !

  2. Isn’t less ice the solution to less ice? More open water means more heat lost from the water to the atmosphere to space. Seems to me arctic sea ice is an efficient mechanism for regulating the temperature up there.

    I went for a brisk walk this past weekend and came home “stoked”. So, I took off two layers – a windbreaker and a sweatshirt. I then sat down at my laptop for a couple of hours. Chilled, I got up and put the sweatshirt back on.

  3. 1) There was nothing unusual about this summer’s heat wave.
    2) There’s always warm water entering the arctic during an El Nino. We’ve been in El Nino conditions more or less constantly since the massive El Nino back in 2016.
    3) 8 years and we still haven’t gotten back to the lows of 2012, and this is supposed to be a crisis?
    4) Anyone who claims that lack of sea ice in the arctic means that more solar energy is absorbed either doesn’t know what he’s talking about, or is a bald faced liar.

          • fred250

            Your chart is labelled ‘UAH NoPol 1980-1995’. That usually means Jan 1980 to Dec 1995. Matter of fact your chart shows UAH NoPol from Dec 1979 and it stops at Nov 1994, not Dec 1995. So it stops more than 2 years before the start of the 1997/8 El Nino. Amazing how so many skeptics here never seem to check on the data or charts posted.

          • Do you DENY the cooling trend ?

            Or do you want to include the build-up to the 1997/1998 El Nino. !

            If you actually bothered looking at the UAH NoPol data you would see that the step up in the Arctic occurred in 1995 and there was no 1998 peak at all.. A very different sort of event than the recent El Nino /big blob event

            But don’t bother looking at the actual data, that would be too much for you.

    • What heat wave? For some of us in the central U.S. we recorded the second consecutive year of no 100 degree F days. That was due in part to heavy rains that did not fall elsewhere.

    • MarkW, the lack of sea ice does mean that more solar radiation is absorbed. However, there are other results associated with the change. The first is that there is less absorption in the water than at lower latitudes due to the low Sun angles (more reflection). The warmer water also radiates out more. In addition, increased evaporation removes more surface energy which convects up to dissipate energy at higher altitude. The higher water vapor content also causes more clouds which block some of the sunlight. I don’t know the net result, but it is likely that the change is not very much either way.

      • Leonard
        You remarked, “The higher water vapor content also causes more clouds which block some of the sunlight.” Yes, the Arctic is notoriously cloudy and foggy and frequently the sun cannot be seen. That is why Vikings used something called a sunstone, to help them navigate.

  4. Sea ice extend shown in the graph in the post show lower extend than what DMI shows.
    ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current_new.png
    Is that a min cover, 15%, issue?

  5. There is a very simple reason why the Arctic is late freezing this year, and that is the jetstreams. They are all over the place. The northern jetstream has been as far south as the Canaries, and also frequently flowing up into the Arctic. On a couple of occasions we have had a jetstream over the North Pole. All that drags warm air with, hence no freezing. These disorderly jetsreams, associated with the solar minimum, were also the cause of the high temperatures in Siberia in the summer.

    • “the pattern of autumn ice growth has been completely disrupted”
      Completely? Really? We even got treated to a graph that showed us the exact opposite of that. I.e. The sea ice is increasing as it usually does at this time of year, albeit a bit more slowly (I would guess that’s as a result of some weather).

      “Research so far suggests we’ll stay on the current path”. I wish they’d make up their minds – Peter Wadhams told us that one day it’d just disappear quite quickly. We’ve all seen that quote of his.

      Are we really meant to use observations over the last 40 years to form an opinion about what is ‘normal’ up there? That seems like a pretty short period of time to this non-expert. You’d think that the director of this place might think to look a bit further back in history.

      Verkhoyansk got to 100F for the first time? Really? I’ve seen enough of these false claims to suspect that this really isn’t the case. It’s more likely that Verkhoyansk _frequently_ gets that hot.

    • I recall reading on WUWT about the poles shifting. If that is so, how much effect would that have on our climate? It seems to me it would have QUITE an effect!

      • PC_Bob, the magnetic poles may shift, not the physical poles (based on the axis of rotation). The space radiation which comes in near the magnetic poles may have a small local effect, but the sunlight angles will not change due to the magnetic pole shift.

  6. How many years did storm numbers fall way short of predictions? Over and over again. So for once, we have more storms. This is known as confirmation bias. It’s unscientific, of course.

    Arctic ice data may need to be collected for another century before we know what the normal behavior is. There are climate cycles we know about, and perhaps other phenomena to be discovered. Why should we assume the Earth is or should be more or less static. That seems tremendously naive. Nature does not work that way. Rather, there are cycle as mentioned, and other chaotic behavior that tends to remain bounded.

    Hyperbole is often used for political and self-promotion purposes. Is that how science is advanced?

  7. The southern hemisphere is doing very well. Antarctic sea ice is above normal. In fact if you look at sea ice levels in 1986 for both poles, Antarctic sea ice was at near record lows and Arctic sea ice at near record highs.

    The green lines:
    Antarctic: https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/extent_s_running_mean_amsr2_regular.png
    Arctic: https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/extent_n_running_mean_amsr2_regular.png

    Maybe Mark Serreze can explain this one.

  8. Other than it’s late, what’s the problem? It’s not the latest it has ever been in recent nor past history and we/people and animals have thrived through it all. Or is this just another exercise in apocalyptic anomalies?

  9. I still don’t care if there is a single ice cube left in the Arctic. It has NO EFFECT on the rest of the world other than economic.

  10. This is interesting and no doubt accurate but we need to keep in mind the big picture. Is an increase in temperature of the earth good or bad for humanity., history says it is good. Is the greening of the Sahel and the rest of the planet where people live a net benefit that is worth more to us than worrying about the Artic where nobody lives. Will the “greening ” in the arctic produce benefits as well? The article focuses on the real or imagined downsides and neglects to consider upsides as appears to be the norm for the academic and bureaucrat community so they can keep their funding streams. I will be really impressed when they can tell us how much of the change in climate is natural and how much man made using data not models.

  11. Deep heat really could be the issue, deep deep heat as in Geothermal. Does anyone know what is going on with the currents around the Gakkel Ridge? There are weird currents jetting from that region of the arctic basin

  12. There is a strong La Niña cycle developing, which will likely cause very cold Arctic temps over the next 2 winters and will likely cause an increase in Arctic Ice extents.

    Long term, Arctic Ice Extents won’t likely recover much until the PDO and AMO reenter their respective 30-year cool cycles, but once they do, there will likely be 30-years of increasing Arctic Ice Extents and global cooling, and much turmoil among CAGW advocates.

    We’ll see soon enough…

    • No matter, they will have their carbon taxes permanently embedded in budgets and program spending by then.

    • “won’t likely recover much”

      Would people PLEASE stop saying an increase in sea ice is a “recovery”

      It is NOT.

      The “recovery” has been the drop from the anomalous extreme high of the 1970’s

      and it still got a fair way to go to get back down to the Holocene norm.

  13. In the above article, Mark Serreze writes: “There’s so much more heat in the ocean now than there used to be that the pattern of autumn ice growth has been completely disrupted.”

    Hey, Mark, might it be simply that with the Earth now going some 20+ years on the warm side of the AMO cycle, there is an associated effect on Arctic ice growth patterns?

    And guess what? . . . the warm part of the previous AMO cycle ended around 1962, well before you became an Arctic climate scientist (by you own words) and, later, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center. So perhaps your definition of “normal” applied to Arctic ice coverage-by-month is a bit colored by your personal experience.

    And darn that increasing “heat content” in the oceans. It doesn’t seem to be reflected in the worldwide Argo ocean float data, so once again it seems to have resorted to hiding somewhere in the world’s oceans. Olly olly oxen free!

    And finally to address your advice regarding “If you’ve been ignoring climate change and hoping that it will just go away . . .”: please don’t worry about me. I have long recognized that climate change now is a part of Earth’s natural variations as it has been for BILLIONS of years in the past. Why should I expect it to “go away”???

    And if by that last phrase you were perhaps referring to man-made climate change™, no worry . . . there is no such thing . . . but perhaps you are late in getting the developing “scientific consensus” in this area.

  14. Don’t know about the Arctic, but as to the Atlantic this ‘negative’ is also going on, that’s what they emphasize.

    https://nsf.gov/discoveries/disc_summ.jsp?cntn_id=301502&org=NSF&from=news
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s42003-020-01326-0
    Declines in shellfish species on rocky seashores match climate-driven changes
    “Between 20 and 50% of the total variance in abundances and recruitment is due to variation among sites (Supplementary Table 7)…..The rates of declines we have observed are sobering.”
    Only 3 of 50 references were before 2000, none having to do with previous warming of the Gulf of Maine. Their figures are not very impressive, one species clearly diminishing, others more scattered. Don’t doubt that it happened, their data showing some, but again a negative, poorly historically researched paper. Other questionable stats?

    Wonder if their T is dropping.
    https://gizmodo.com/an-indigenous-group-in-the-amazon-has-experienced-a-dro-1845508162
    Didn’t check out the paper to see if it was also sobering.

  15. They always don’t have in mind, oceans, ice, temps act in cycles and they only look at the status quo in the belief all is in an one way mode – wrong, isn’t.

    • Yes. They seem to have no concept of change and anything different to yesterday is wrong and bad.
      It’s really quite pathetic navel gazing.

  16. What is the panic about .
    It is not yet the end of October and winter in the Northern Hemisphere starts when .
    When the sun does not even appear above the horizon for months it will freeze up.
    Just another scare story for the news outlets .
    Tell us about it next May .
    I have it on good authority from a well respected scientist that the total amount of sea ice at both poles generally averages out when the Arctic is low the Antarctic is higher.

    • The freeze should have started at a steady rate just after the minimum, which was, if I recall, September 9th 2020. At present we are 3.5 million sq km lower than the 1980s average for this date…

      • A WEATHER event stalled it.. SO WHAT.

        I suspect we will now see a rapid growth during November.

        And as you well know the late 1970s was a period of anomalously high extremes of Arctic sea ice.

        THANK GOODNESS there is less sea ice than then, the Arctic sea life is LUVING it.

        Even near extinct species are returning… .. as if you cared.

        Now the big question is…

        WHY IS THERE STILL SO MUCH ARCTIC SEA ICE.?

        Still far more than for most of the last 10,000 years

        I remember many of your PROFITS saying it would be “ice-free, many years before now.

        Do you have any evidence at all that the highly beneficial RECOVERY in Arctic sea ice from the extreme highs of the LIA and late 1970s has any human causation.?

  17. So, how many times in the last 10,000 to 15,000 years has ice along the Siberian Coast not been there or greatly reduced in extent compared to any time in the last 100 years??
    What if anything is unique about today’s climate that has not occurred numerous times in the past?
    Maybe if it gets warm enough we can once again have Vikings settle Greenland as they did about 1000 years ago.

    As incredible as it seems, we are deep into a group think, Orwellian-Lysenkian world in which political ideology predominates and real science is used as a hammer to coerce the imposition of a leftist political agenda.

    His chart goes back to 1979; as if the last 40 years or so is representative of what??? Oh, that’s right, of the last 40 years.

    What total bullshit.

  18. Why all the emphasis on the extreme minimum which is super sensitive to the variable weather showing huge swings. The ice extent on or about July 21 has been essentially identical for the past 10 years. Isn’t that a better metric? I.ve made this comment before, come on someone help me out.

    • “I.ve made this comment before, come on someone help me out.”

      I’m probably not the someone you’re looking for….
      The ice comes back every year 14-16 million square kilometers (about 5.4-6.2 million square miles), 2020 max’d out with 15 million, same as in 2009.

      According to NSIDC, the average maximum extent for 1979-2000 was 15.46 million square kilometers (5.96 million square miles).

      Not much of a change there so let’s make reduction in “multi year ice” a problem, or not.

      “In August, 1922, the Norwegian Department of Commerce sent an expedition to Spitsbergen and Bear Island under Dr. Adolf Hoel, lecturer on geology at the University of Christiania. The oceanographic observations (reported that) Ice conditions were exceptional. In fact, so little ice has never before been noted. The expedition all but established a record, sailing as far north as 81o29′ in ice-free water. This is the farthest north ever reached with modern oceanographic apparatus…..”

      https://judithcurry.com/2013/04/10/historic-variations-in-arctic-sea-ice-part-ii-1920-1950/

      In other news on planet fireball, the Antarctic sea ice extent is greater than in 1980, 13.2 vs 12.5 million Km². Wrap up if you’re thinking of going out, it’s -50°c today.

      • Thanks Climate Believer, that helps. More proof that the more things change the more they stay the same.

  19. If you’ve been ignoring climate change and hoping that it will just go away, …

    It will come as a considerable shock to Serreze that he’s the one who’s been ignoring climate change. He seems to think the climate is static? Does he think Dr. Mann’s fraudulent, as admitted by himself, hockey stick is an accurate reflection of reality? Does he deny the MWP and LIA? Does he deny that the climate is still recovering from the Little Ice Age?

    • Serreze is just doing what most climate scientists do, fear mongering to protect their funding. The timing, of his propaganda sheet, shortly before the election is teling.

  20. This is not normal? Only in the time we have been observing accurarely, 50-60 years.

    Bad news for the rest of the planet? Only if you believe that a somewhat warmer world is bad news.

    The ocean contains much more heat than before? I though Keith was still looking for it.

    And that feedback on open water. That must work everywhere near the edge of ice fields, just like it always did.

  21. Sereeze says “I’ve watched the region’s transformations since the 1980s ….I can tell you, this is not normal.”

    No , the late 1970s was certainly NOT NORMAL.

    It was an extreme outliar, up there with the extents of the Little Ice Age

    You would think someone in his position would actually know this.

    But apparently he is as ignorant as griff. !

    • I’ve watched the region’s transformations since the 1980s …

      This is the same problem Dr. Ian Stirling has with polar bears. You study something, you know more and more about less and less until, finally, you know everything about nothing. I used to joke that Ian knew every polar bear on a first name basis. Even so, he’s obviously wrong about polar bear survival in a seasonally ice free arctic. As far as I can tell, the arctic has been seasonally ice free for most of the Holocene.

      Similarly, what Serrez says about how the arctic loses ice rings true. The same as with Stirling, his alarmism is ill informed because the arctic appears to have been seasonally ice free for most of the Holocene. example

  22. Exceptional! can be considered great!! Positive! Beneficial! This pseudo-science activist is lamenting the melting of poor, sad, hapless ICE! Frozen water! Dead frozen water! So sad. This guy has been drinking too many Icees and his brain is frozen.

  23. Is this right – that barely half the sea level rise is from anthropogenic causes?

    It is from the IPCC report:
    https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-4-sea-level-rise-and-implications-for-low-lying-islands-coasts-and-communities/

    4.2.2.5.2
    Attribution of global mean sea level change to anthropogenic forcing
    By estimating a probabilistic upper range of long-term persistent natural sea level variability, Dangendorf et al. (2015) detected a fraction of observed sea level change that is unexplained by natural variability and concluded by inference that it is virtually certain that at least 45% of the observed increase in GMSL since 1900 is attributable to anthropogenic forcing. Similarly, Becker et al. (2014) provided statistical evidence that the observed sea level trend, both in the global mean and at selected tide gauge locations, is not consistent with unforced, internal variability. They inferred that more than half of the observed GMSL trend during the 20th century is attributable to anthropogenic forcing.

    Slangen et al. (2016) reconstructed GMSL from 1900 to 2005 based on CMIP5 model simulations separating individual components of radiative climate forcing and combining the contributions of thermosteric sea level change with glacier and ice sheet mass loss. They found that the naturally caused sea level change, including the long-term adjustment of sea level to climate change preceding 1900, caused 67 ± 23% of observed change from 1900 to 1950, but only 9 ± 18% between 1970 and 2005. Anthropogenic forcing was found to have caused 15 ± 55% of observed sea level change during 1900–1950, but 69 ± 31% during 1970–2005. The sum of all contributions explains only 74 ± 22% of observed GMSL change during the period 1900–2005 considering the mean of the reconstructions of Church and White (2011), Ray and Douglas (2011), Jevrejeva et al. (2014b) and Hay et al. (2015). However, the budget could be closed taking into contribution of glaciers that are missing from the global glacier inventory or have already melted (Parkes and Marzeion, 2018) which were not considered in Slangen et al. (2016).

    Based on these multiple lines of evidence, there is high confidence that anthropogenic forcing very likely is the dominant cause of observed GMSL rise since 1970.
    ———

    So they added a bit to get the 45% to over 50% and can say that anthropocentric is the dominant cause?

    PS It was page 343 of my hard copy, but seems a bit different online.

  24. So Russia has wasted perfectly good money in building Arktika, the latest nuclear powered monster ice-breaker ?

    Can you envision that they will commission such a vessel just for fun leisure cruises ?

  25. Oh, for crying out loud. The sea ice will form like it always does. Ice is an insulator; no ice means the arctic water will lose heat. Then freeze like normal. Geez, does everything always have to be dialed up to 11.

  26. Oh, for crying out loud. The sea ice will form like it always does. Ice is an insulator; no ice means the arctic water will lose heat. Then freeze like normal. Geez, does everything always have to be dialed up to 11.

    P.S. This article was written by someone in Boulder–need I say more.

  27. Concerning Griff, et al,

    I feel he does have a value to us.
    (Apart from entertainment, that is.)

    He’s not much of a “devil’s advocate”, but he gives it a good try, considering what little he has to work with.
    “Troll”is not the right word. That’s unfair.
    Can I suggest that he continues to get his ass kicked, but with good humour?

    I think I’d miss him. Is it just me? 🙂

    (I don’t often comment, but I read regularly.)

  28. Questions for Dr. Serezze: Do you expect any part of climate to be forever static? Would rapidly advancing ice sheets be better or worse for life on Earth?

  29. Isn’t this just a long form version of the “Arctic is screaming”?

    Serreze is utterly dependent on assumption (This has not happened before, not normal) without any real evidence for that claim, a claim that also willfully ignores the immense uncertainty in modeling (so much so that NOAA can get a following season’s forecast 100% wrong

    You literally have to believe the pages and mann hockeystick shenanigans to assume change is happening at a rate that is not normal and that this didn’t happen before (the latter claim has even less evidence, almost none)

    Given the sea ice levels of the last 10,000 years, I’d say Serreze is like Holthaus, fighting some personal demon and using the climate battle as a proxy (The Thunberg family also do this, the father admitted as much to BBC, and like the others, cash in financially or in career)

  30. If anti-griff was here, he would point out that on November 12, the sun will not rise again in Arctic Bay Canada until Feb……it will truly be a Cold Dark Winter there. Anti-griff would note that the recent snow and cold front that hit Canada and parts of the USA set some record cold temps and the amount of snow cover plus the latitude meant that it reflected more solar radiation than the arctic is absorbing. Anti-griff is also fond of pointing out that even though 2012 was a low ice year in the arctic, 2013 produced a remarkable rebound.

    • As Antarctic sea ice has been perfectly stable over the last 4 decades at least this is not GLOBAL climate change. Sea ice is a perfect thermometer.

      The fact that Antarctic sea ice is perfectly stable is proof that CO2 is not affecting GLOBAL climate. CO2 should also have melted Antarctic sea ice since there is about as much CO2 over the southern hemisphere as over the northern hemisphere…..

  31. The ideal temperature of the planet for life is at least 2 deg. C warmer than this and CO2 levels double the current levels.

    We are supposed to believe, absurdly that the ideal temperature of the planet was exactly when humans started burning fossil fuels and this also just happened to be when CO2 levels were perfect and Arctic sea ice was also where it always needs to stay.

    What if humans would have advanced a couple hundred years faster?

    I guess that perfect temperature would have been defined as colder(during the Little Ice Age).
    Although advancement, world crop production and other related items probably would not have happened then because it was too COLD for life!

    It’s a climate optimum for life on this greening planet by all authentic scientific standards.
    Just so happens that the ideal temperature is higher and humans developed along coastlines falsely assuming the the climate would never warm up and are bent out of shape worrying over sea level rise.

    Arctic sea ice was LOWER than this during the Holocene climate OPTIMUM, 9,000 to 5,000 years ago.

    Sea ice is already floating in the water and does not contribute to sea levels.

    Antarctic ice and Greenland ice melting does.

  32. Fake news.

    I’m not kidding. You look at the calculated sea-ice extents and there is less natural variation before 1980 than the uncertainty of modern measurements using satellites. Somehow, this imperceptible change scared prominent scientist 70-80 years ago into seeing a drastic reduction in sea ice that would lead an ice free arctic by the 70s!

    We’re they tripping?

  33. Perhaps the ‘scientists’ could learn from The Bard from 400 years ago:

    There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio,
    Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
    – Hamlet (1.5.167-8), Hamlet to Horatio

    your philosophy ] i.e., philosophy (or learning) in general.

    The emphasis here should be on “dreamt of”, as Hamlet is pointing out how little even the most educated people can explain.

  34. It will be interesting to see how the warm water progresses further eastward. Warm North Atlantic water has flown into the Arctic ocean in the nineties and 2000’s starting near Svalbard. Where it melts Arctic ice more water vapor fills the air that is causing more low pressure areas that suck in warm moist air from the south. High atmospheric turbulence (storms) mixes cold fresh upper water with deeper warmer water, bringing upward the deeper heat. When the warmer water will further shift eastwards at some point weather patterns over Svalbard and Nova Zembla will change back to a colder mode. It will be interesting to see when the growth of ice over the Barents Sea will restart. Last year already showed more sea ice north of Svalbard. The Polarstern frozen in the north could not be reached well by ice breakers.

    When actual wind patterns will shift from the North Atlantic further to the East a big change can be expected. Unless once more warm water will flow from the North Atlantic into the Arctic. My guess: a change in weather pattern over the North Atlantic/Svalbard will induce cooling, preventing further warm inflows. The next phase of a cycle. Living in the Netherlands I already observed the last years more northeast and northern winds.

    While the Earth is bouncing back from the Little Ice Age a general warming pattern is normal. That warming comes to expression in the North. The South Pole has a nearly independent stable high pressure area over the ice cap. While warm air flows upward over the Arctic cold stratospheric air is continuing to flow down over the Antarctic.

    Oceans are already cooling for six thousand years. The reason is simple. Obliquity changes, less Sun over high northern latitudes causes cooling at that latitudes without (!) resulting in a warming over the tropics. While the tropics get more solar all ‘extra heat’ is convected away from the surface and lost for the higher latitudes. Tropical oceans are constrained to a maximum temperature of 30 degrees Celsius. Whatever the influx of energy.

    But a cooling Earth shows a higher variability than a continuous warm Earth shows. Extreme warming events are to expect when the Earth is cooling followed by more extreme cooling events. The problem is the time scale: those ‘big cycles’ can only be seen over a time span of centuries. The Little Ice Age was a big cooling event, right now we are in a big warming event. What’s next, are we already at the top of the warming period? Or not yet? Interesting years to come. 

  35. We had Californication in 2007. Now we have Atlantification. This time, the show can be set in Glasgow to coincide with COP26 in November 2021.

  36. “The West has been both hot and dry – the perfect recipe for massive wildfires – and warm water in the Gulf of Mexico has helped fuel more tropical storms in the Atlantic than there are letters in the alphabet. If you’ve been ignoring climate change and hoping that it will just go away, now would be an appropriate time to pay attention.”

    I’ve been paying real close attention for 38 years. This is some of what I see.

    https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/59093/

    “People continue to insist wrongly that this drought and the wildfires were caused by climate change………..calling them “climate fires”

    Let me repeat this again.

    Global warming/climate change causes the Pacific Ocean temperature to warm up. It happens in tandem with more El Nino’s, which is a warming at the surface in a key area of the Tropical Pacific.

    El Nino’s cause MORE precipitation in much of the US. They help protect the US from droughts.

    El Ninos= more precip/less droughts in the US = more frequent during global warming/less frequent during global cooling

    La Nina’s = Less precip/more droughts in the US =less frequent during global warming/more frequent during global cooling

    The US Cornbelt has had only 1 widespread severe drought in the past 32 years, in part because of this climate change. That drought was in 2012 and was started by the La Nina drought the previous year that spread east and ended late that Summer when ENSO readings moved into the El Nino side of Neutral.

    The drought before that was way back in 1988, during a strong La Nina.

    Only 1 drought in 32 years in this key location………..when that location should have seen around 4 droughts based on prior historical records from the “OLD climate.

    Why is every drought headline news and from climate change but having the record least number of droughts in the highest corn/bean producing area of the planet not worth a mention?

    El Nino’s help protect from droughts and there will be more El Nino’s and less droughts with global warming/climate change.

    La Nina’s cause many widespread droughts. There are LESS of them during global warming/climate change. The drought which we have out West right now has been caused/worsened by La Nina conditions in the Tropical Pacific. This is the complete opposite of the affect of global warming and climate change.

    You can’t blame something bad on a dynamic that actually helps prevent that something bad from happening.

    This can’t be from climate change.

    I hope this is clear because the opposite and wrong, anti science message is being told by……….EVERYBODY. “

  37. Once again you are all trying to sell the steak. You need to sell the sizzle (ironic that the saying is appropriate here). The focus should be on the benefits of a warmer world and why it is desirable. When people understand this, they will not see warming as doom and gloom but as something to appreciate and attain.

    • But there is very little sizzle from more heatwaves, droughts, extreme weather and sea level rise. There’s even a point at which more CO2 reduces nutritional qualties of major food crops.

      • “There’s even a point at which more CO2 reduces nutritional qualties of major food crops.”

        Another LIE caused by ignorance of the experimenters.

        Similar later tests doe up proper conditions show no such thing .

        Sea level rise shows absolutely NO INFLUENCE from human causation.

        Droughts have not got more extreme, neither has weather

        Basically everything you just alluded to is an out and out LIE.

        and you know it.

        • typing grr..

          third line should read

          “Similar later tests done under proper conditions show no such thing “.

          Under proper growing conditions, by farmers that know something about crops, there is no drop in nutrient levels.

          crops grown in greenhouses using raise CO2 levels produce some of the most nutritious fruit and vege around.

      • griff:
        ” There’s even a point at which more CO2 reduces nutritional qualties of major food crops.”

        And what point would that be? Do you even know?

        Your problem griff, is that you seem to have no real world experience about anything other than your own little bubble.

    • Phil Salmon

      ” The DMI data on extent look much less alarming than NSIDC… ”

      Sorry, this is incorrect.

      Here is the NSIDC source for Arctic sea ice extent (daily), managed at colorado.edu:
      ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/

      And here are the graphs showing the data.

      1. Absolute values:
      https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-rIi_Ml6yinPkUWPDFPz4VEy9BUX4fZL/view

      2. Departures from the mean of 1981-2010:
      https://drive.google.com/file/d/19I6WWxw-xavC0H7K7tS_Ocef8BE2gzcs/view

      Both DMI and NSIDC show nearly the same absolute values.

      J.-P. D.

      • None of those look even the slightest bit “alarming”

        Looks to me like the Arctic has RECOVERED slightly from the extreme highs of the LIA and late 1970s.

        This is TOTALLY A GOOD THING, especially for Arctic sea life.

        • fred250

          I have nothing in mind with your permanent alarmism blah blah.

          The reason for my comment was contradiction to Phl Salmon’s alarmism blah blah, not more, not less.

          J.-P. D.

          • “I have nothing in mind with your permanent alarmism blah blah.”

            WT* are you yabbering about ?

            I’m the very opposite of an alarmist.. I’m a REALIST

            So glad you agree that there is NOTHING TO BE ALARMED ABOUT.

            Well done.

          • The IGNORANCE of griff, highlighted for everyone to see. !!

            Getting so desperate he is reduced to out and out LIES. !

          • And pray, why is warming a bad thing? The World is still much cooler than it was 1000 or 2000 years ago. What were the climate disasters that occurred back then?

            You still haven’t explained how Polar Bears survived the Holocene, despite the absence of Summer ice.

        • Wrong – it’s a negative, not positive feedback since more sea water is exposed allowing both radiative and evaporative heat loss. Above latitude 60 this outweighs albedo.

          Why do you think sea water under sea ice during ice ages is warmer, not colder, than during interglacials?

          The albedo feedback does not start until ice cover substantially reaches a latitude of about 60 or lower. Above that, the feedback is negative. If not, then every winter would cause a positive feedback leading to an ice age.

    • It’s upside down in the Southern Hemisphere, doh !! Some people. Don’t you understand how gravity works?

    • But not those of the last 100 years. The point is, we have had accelerating warming over recent decades, clearly shown by the lack of ice and clearly caused by human CO2.

      When we last had an ice free arctic it was because the part of the Milankovitch cycle then in progress exposed the summer arctic to much higher insolation. Here we have a serious decline with no such driver in place.

      • “But not those of the last 100 years.”

        You mean the highly beneficial rise from the FREEZING COLD of the LIA.

        Your really are getting desperate griff.. and POINTLESS.

        We haven’t go t an “ice-free Arctic now, fool.

        There are still a whole 4+ Wadhams of Arctic sea ice.

        That NATURAL WARMING has done wonders for Arctic sea life and the Arctic in general

        Not only is the land surface GREENING, but the seas are also springing BACK to life after being TOO COLD and frozen over for much of the last 500 or so years (coldest period of the Holocene)

        The drop in sea ice slightly toward the pre-LIA levels has opened up the food supply for the nearly extinct Bowhead Whale, and they are returning to the waters around Svalbard.

        https://partner.sciencenorway.no/arctic-ocean-forskningno-fram-centre/the-ice-retreats–whale-food-returns/1401824

        The Blue Mussel is also making a return, having been absent for a few thousand years, apart from a brief stint during the MWP.

        https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0959683617715701?journalCode=hola

        Many other species of whale are also returning now that the sea ice extent has dropped from the extreme highs of the LIA. Whales cannot swim on ice. !

        https://blog.poseidonexpeditions.com/whales-of-svalbard/

        Great thing is, that because of fossil fuels and plastics, they will no longer be hunted for whale blubber for lamps and for whale bone.

        Hopefully the Arctic doesn’t re-freeze too much in the next AMO cycle, and these glorious creatures get a chance to survive and multiply.

        Why do you continue to think a TOTALLY FROZEN Arctic is a good thing ??

        You obviously have a deep-seated hatred for Arctic sea life. !

      • “we have had accelerating warming over recent decades,

        UTTER BS yet again

        There was no warming between 1980 and 1997
        https://i.postimg.cc/fyv8vcRh/RSS_V4_before_El_Nino.png

        No warming between 2001 and 2015.
        https://i.postimg.cc/fyv8vcRh/RSS_V4_before_El_Nino.png

        The only warming has come in two steps, both at large El Ninos

        That means that there can be absolutely ZERO human cause.

        Let’s see you ran away again and hide again, griff, you insipid little coward…

        1… Do you have any empirical scientific evidence for warming by atmospheric CO2?

        2… In what ways has the global climate changed in the last 50 years , that can be scientifically proven to be of human causation?

        .

      • “Here we have a serious decline with no such driver in place.”

        And what was the “driver” that caused the Arctic sea ice to expand to anomalously extreme high extents during the LIA and the late 1970s, griff?

        Do you really think those extreme high extents were “normal” or beneficial to anything ???

        Would you have preferred the globe dipped into another deep Ice Age ??

        You think its so warm in Siberia, why haven’t you escaped from the devastating heat in the UK and moved there ?

      • ‘ … the lack of ice and clearly caused by human CO2.’

        Wrong, its caused by ocean currents.

        The Holocene has passed its ‘used by date’ and we know from the final days of the Eemian that there is a warm spike before we slip into the abyss, with 400 years of universal drought. Arctic ice extent is at a low ebb, but will rebound magnificently over the next decade, nothing to do with CO2.

    • There have been about 19 warming intervals over the Holocene, of comparable amplitude and steepness to the present one. To argue that current warming is unprecedented and alarming has zero basis and is simply politically opportunistic fraud, taking advantage of the credulity and muddle-headedness and political interests of the moneyed elite.

      The last 3 or 4 Pleistocene glacial intervals have been the coldest periods for several hundred million years, and during them, CO2 has decreased to below 200 ppm with serious danger of plant die-offs and extinctions. The many megafaunal extinctions of the last glacial maximum are in large part due to this CO2 starvation. In the close aftermath of such events, adding CO2 to the atmosphere should be considered a benefit and an urgent priority.

      To argue instead that CO2 addition is harmful since for a mere century or two it happens to coincide with a warming oscillation, a very probable and unexceptional coincidence in the context of fractally varying climate, is deeply ignorant and utterly illogical.

      Before you yip back, open your mind to deep time and to a period longer than a century or two. The world was not created in 1850 despite what you might have been told.

    • When we last had an ice free arctic it was because the part of the Milankovitch cycle then in progress exposed the summer arctic to much higher insolation. Here we have a serious decline with no such driver in place.

      You acknowledge Milankovitch cycles? That’s strange, because current climate research increasingly ignores Milankovich forcing, oceans, continental movement and ascribes all temperature change to volcanoes only except in the modern period where it’s human CO2.

      At the end of the previous, Eemian interglacial there was also a very abrupt warming with 3-5m sea level rise. Also in the absence of Milankovich forcing, as the authors commented:

      “The LIG [last interglacial] record reveals that strong climate forcing is not required to yield
      major impacts on the ocean and ice caps. Antarctic ice cores document that LIG atmospheric CO2 was
      ~275 ppm, while global temperature was < 1 °C warmer than present. Despite only slightly warmer conditions than pre-Industrial times, relative sea level (RSL) persisted at +2–3 m for several thousand years during the early and mid LIG. Later in the LIG, sea level abruptly rose an additional 3–5 m meters to +6–9 m RSL."

      https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Paul_Hearty/publication/317309157_Sea-level_change_and_super_storms_geologic_evidence_from_late_last_interglacial_MIS_5e_in_Bahamas_and_Bermuda_offers_ominous_prospects_for_a_warming_Earth/links/59c51d09aca272c71bb8d5d1/Sea-level-change-and-super-storms-geologic-evidence-from-late-last-interglacial-MIS-5e-in-Bahamas-and-Bermuda-offers-ominous-prospects-for-a-warming-Earth.pdf

  38. Those who believe that the Arctic is a place where heat is accumulating has a different view of things.
    Less ice is a sign of warming and will expose the water to the winter climate. And ice will form later and expose more water the the sky and it is cool.
    Just study the ice cover growth.

      • SO WHAT.. there has been a WEATHER event over the north of Siberia.

        That slightly less cold blob has now dropped well below zero

        Why is there still SO MUCH SEA ICE in the Arctic griff?

        You high priests said it would be all gone years before now.

        Why do you think that having the Arctic frozen solid all year round is a good thing?

        Why do you worship Arctic sea ice and HATE Arctic sea life ?

        Do you have any evidence at all that the highly beneficial drop in Arctic sea ice from the extreme highs of the LIA and late 1970s has any human causation.???

        Still waiting for actual evidence.. never forthcoming

  39. a feeble set of posts above, trying to ignore a massive set of physical evidence.

    MarkW – WHERE IS YOUR BETTER DATA?

    • Yes, every one of your posts is absolutely FEEBLE, and in total DENIAL of actual evidence.

      Steeped and dripping with DENIAL of natural climate variability and a deep hatred of Arctic sea life.

      There is still FAR MORE SEA ICE than for most of the last 10,000 years…

      The partial RECOVERY from the extreme highs of the LIA and late 1970s has been an absolute boon for Arctic sea life.

    • griff, WHERE IS YOUR DATA showing warming by atmospheric CO2?

      We have been waiting a very long time !!

      • Fred dozens of competent universities, research institutes, distinguished scientists ahve assembled the data.

        If you can’t use google, I can’t help you.

        I tend to concentrate on the observed, physical evidence, like the arctic sea ice… perhaps you’d like to read the article one more time?

        • Thanks for admitting that YOU CANNOT PRODUCE ANY…

          Its YOUR fantasy…

          YOU produce the evidence..

          Or you could just keep yabbering mindlessly.

          WHY is there still SO MUCH Arctic sea ice?

          Why do you think the anomalous extreme high extent of the late1970’s was in any way “normal” or desirable?

          Why do you HATE Arctic sea life and want to see it frozen out all year?

          Do you have any evidence at all that the highly beneficial drop in Arctic sea ice from the extreme highs of the LIA and late 1970s has any human causation ?

          Do you have any empirical scientific evidence for warming by atmospheric CO2?

          In what ways has the global climate changed in the last 50 years , that can be scientifically proven to be of human causation?

          Still nothing except mindless yabbering..

          NO EVIDENCE, and you have just admitted you cannot produce any.

          But everybody knows that…. even you.

        • Fred250….

          ”griff, WHERE IS YOUR DATA showing warming by atmospheric CO2?”

          griff….

          ”Fred dozens of competent universities, research institutes, distinguished scientists ahve assembled the data.”

          That’s data about warming not warming from co2.
          griff….

          ”I tend to concentrate on the observed, physical evidence, like the arctic sea ice”

          And there’s your problem right there. That’s not evidence of warming from co2. It’s just evidence of warming.
          Basically griff you and all your climate scientologist friends have nothing.

  40. I wish people wouldnt keep repeating this myth. “that melting launched a feedback process: The loss of reflective sea ice exposed dark open ocean, which readily absorbs the sun’s heat”

    At the low angles of incidence in the arctic the ocean is not dark, it is very reflective. Ever watched the sun go down over the sea? Is that dark?

    Not only that the weak energy, of which only visible wavelengths can penetrate water, and cause heating, is vastly exceeded by the energy the ocean can radiate in the absence of an ice cap.

    Sea ice insulates the ocean. Wiki it, look it up, research it. It is well known.

  41. Atlantification is a difficult thing to understand given that it is not in the dictionary. Why does every thing that occurs in the Arctic each year have to be bad always? Why can’t we just watch what unfolds in the arctic with interest rather than fear? There has been no downward change in minimum sea ice extent in the last decade. I wonder what changes we will see in the Arctic in the coming decade?

    • I’m afraid that sort of reasoned response is a thing of the past, now we just panic and in the process make the most ludicrous decisions.

    • we’ll see a summer with no sea ice whatever, that’s what.

      and that will have a feedback effect on the warming rate of the planet.

      • LOL.. your high priests have been saying that for ages

        FAILED. !!!!

        WHY IS THERE STILL SO MUCH SEA ICE , griff?

        Why do you think the extreme high levels of sea ice in the 1970s was normal or desirable?

        Why do you HATE Arctic sea life so much that you want to see it frozen out and return to near extinction.?

        Do you have any evidence at all that the highly beneficial drop in Arctic sea ice from the extreme highs of the LIA and late 1970s has any human causation ??

      • “we’ll see a summer with no sea ice whatever,”

        You mean like for most of the first half of the Holocene?

        Wouldn’t that be TOTALLY WONDERFUL for all life trying to live up there.

        Even now, with the small drop from the extreme high levels of the LIA and late 1970’s, near extinct species are already returning

        WHY do you want to see them disappear again, griff

        WHY do you HATE Arctic sea life so much?

        Do you have any evidence at all that the highly beneficial drop in Arctic sea ice from the extreme highs of the LIA and late 1970s has any human causation ?

  42. Farewell Arctica.
    The tipping point was last winter: for the first time in history (not only since 1979, but since it was discovered in 19th century) there was no Siberian High formed. This is a blocking anticyclone that is responsible for the cold siberian winter.
    It is gone. May be for good. Without it, the warm atlantic air passes all over Russia to Pacific.
    If true, the arctic ice will never recover.

  43. The Antarctic sea ice is at an unprecedented high we are all going to freeze to death.. Oh no that’s just weather isn’t it?

  44. griff October 30, 2020 at 1:20 am says
    If its a cycle, why is this one so low? Lower than the last low point, by miles?

    Hi Griffo, shouldn’t that be by square ‘miles’?
    As the graph
    http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/ArcticIce.htm
    shows current variability is of order of +25% to -25% in the assumed most recent cycle. Not all natural cycles are of the same magnitude since there are number of other underlining variables.
    In case it didn’t occur to you the September Arctic ice extent could theoretically vary from 0% to 100% .
    No need to panic with + or – 25%, but when it gets down to order of + & – 5% of it’s centenary average I’ll move back to the Mediterranean shore.

    • griff also doesn’t understand the WEATHER event of the jet stream pushing warm air from below Siberia up into the Arctic, where it is great for Arctic sea life, because it stalls the winter re-freeze for a week or so.

      …. while at the same time causing bitter and cold in the USA, breaking many October COLD records by very significant amounts.

      He cares more about sea ice than he does about Arctic sea life or people trying to live with temperature below zero in the USA.

      • The warming out of the COLDEST PERIOD in 10,000 years

        WHY is there still SO MUCH Arctic sea ice, griff

        Way more than for most of the last 10,000 years

        Your high priests said it would be gone long before now.

        You seem DESPERATE for it to refreeze to extreme high levels again.. WHY ?

        The slight RECOVERY from the anomalous high extent in the late 1970s has been TOTALLY BENEFICIAL to Arctic sea life

        Why do you hate Arctic sea life so much, griff?

        Why do you worship sea ice above sea life?

        Do you have any evidence at all that the highly beneficial drop in Arctic sea ice from the extreme highs of the LIA and late 1970s has any human causation ?

      • “in the last 100 years”

        SO WHAT…!

        Why do you continue to use such piddlingly short periods of time?

        Is it that you have only just learnt to count that far ?

        WHY is there still so much more sea ice than there has been for the last 10,000 years ?

  45. The good news is that this is a negative feedback control on global warming.

    Lots of heat in the Arctic during winter? That means lots of heat being radiated into space.

    Oh, and let’s not forget that the Antarctic ice was exceptionally high this year.

    • er… no. it doesn’t.

      and you can’t avoid discussion of the arctic by pointing at antarctic squirrels.

      • YOU can catch the squirrel that took your brain, mistaking it for a chestnut either

        Arctic has RECOVERED quite well from the extreme highs of the late 1970s

        Far more to go before it drops to the normal levels before the LIA , though.

        Not only is the land surface GREENING, but the seas are also springing BACK to life after being TOO COLD and frozen over for much of the last 500 or so years (coldest period of the Holocene)

        The drop in sea ice slightly toward the pre-LIA levels has opened up the food supply for the nearly extinct Bowhead Whale, and they are returning to the waters around Svalbard.

        https://partner.sciencenorway.no/arctic-ocean-forskningno-fram-centre/the-ice-retreats–whale-food-returns/1401824

        The Blue Mussel is also making a return, having been absent for a few thousand years, apart from a brief stint during the MWP.

        https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0959683617715701?journalCode=hola

        Many other species of whale are also returning now that the sea ice extent has dropped from the extreme highs of the LIA. Whales cannot swim on ice. !

        https://blog.poseidonexpeditions.com/whales-of-svalbard/

        Great thing is, that because of fossil fuels and plastics, they will no longer be hunted for whale blubber for lamps and for whale bone.

        Hopefully the Arctic doesn’t re-freeze too much in the next AMO cycle, and these glorious creatures get a chance to survive and multiply.

        Or do you prefer the Arctic to be permanently frozen over and this returning Arctic sea life to disappear forever?

        What a NASTY little anti-life piece of non-entity your really are, griff.

  46. I believe there is now in addition to the TP shortage, a shortage of Koolade.
    Griffy drank it all, and continues to.

  47. Arctic October scenario for 2019 was very similar to this year.

    “In 2019, during the second half of the month, ice began to grow quickly along the coastal regions of the East Siberian and Laptev Seas.” nsidc

    Latest sea ice image for 29th Oct shows exactly that this year.

    One difference is that in 2019…..
    “Of particular interest are the unusually high temperatures at and near the surface in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas due to the extensive open water there.” nsidc

    This year Beaufort sea is full of ice.

    October Total Ice Gains have been greater in recent years than they were in the 80’s.

    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/1999/11/Figure2b-1.png

    • ‘October Total Ice Gains have been greater in recent years than they were in the 80’s.’

      What nonsense.

      THE ACTUAL AMOUNT OF ICE IS 3,519,603 sq km lower than the 1980s average for the date.

      • GREAT NEWS, hey griff

        The Arctic sea is has RECOVERED a small amount from the extreme high of the late 1970’s

        This has been HIGHLY BENEFICIAL for Arctic sea life

        And of course , your claim of nonsense, again displays your wanton ignorance

        October gain has been rising steeply since the 1990

        https://i.postimg.cc/FH4gKCR2/October-Gain.png

        This year will be a bit low because of a WEATHER event that is now well below zero

        That WEATHER event slowed the re-freeze in October, November will be rapid.

        WHY is there still so much sea ice up there , griff

        WAY MORE than for nearly all the last 10,000 years. !!

        • fred250

          One more time: the usual, multiple cherry-picking.

          You concentrate on a tiny bit of information and think it helps in demonstrating a whole chapter.

          What about the same analysis for all months since 1979?

          J.-P. D.

          • NSIDC data is bi-daily before 1988.

            Looks like CB has done the work for pre 1988 (see below) and come to exactly the conclusion.

            Off you go,

            fix it all up and show me I am wrong

            Or STFU and stop being an ignorant fool !

            Your credibility is ZERO.

          • LOL….. so you are ADMITTING that the statement was TOTALLY CORRECT

            Waiting for an apology to BOTH of us.

            Maybe get some of your lacking integrity back.

            “What matters looks like this:”

            And WHY does that matter??? It affects no persons anywhere..

            It allows Arctic sea life to return to the Arctic after being frozen out since the LIA.

            And whay are you looking at such a short period and such a small region

            Arctic sea ice is far higher than it has been for most of the last 10,000 years

            Stop CHERRY-PICKING a meaninglessly short period of time.

          • “you can’t simply look at gains without looking at losses.”

            Where were the losses in October, ??

            We are talking about gains in October.

            Try to stay somewhere near the topic., dolt !

            You are sounding just like Loy and griff..

            Is that what you really want to do ?

          • MASIE data.. even you are capable of getting the data and confirming the facts

            Aren’t you ?

            You are way below ZERO credibility…. you are a mathematical nonce. !

            BELIEVE what you are told by the climate priest, Don’t bother looking at the data yourself,

            DON’T BOTHER ACTUALLY THINKING for your self.

          • Here is the “October gain” graph with pre-1988 data added

            Missing 1987 data for some reason, but I’m sure a dolt like you could go back and fix that.. right ???

            https://i.postimg.cc/vBWRFSS3/October-Gain.png

            Coincides with what CB is saying

            Go and look at the data yourself, if it isn’t beyond you.

            Then I expect an apology.

          • ps, you do know that we are talking about the GAIN during October, don’t you

            Your links are totally MEANINGLESS in that context

            Try again. ! Engage brain first !!

          • Found the missing 1987 data.

            That was the year they changed from two day reporting to one day reporting

            So here is the graph of Arctic sea ice GAINS during October from NSIDC data

            October 2020 data can be added in 2 days time, I suspect around 2.5 – 2.8, …

            …so a bit low compared to the last several years, because of that strong slightly less cold WEATHER event…

            …… but higher than most years in the 1980s.

            https://i.postimg.cc/KzKVrcTK/october-gain.png

            Do you have the intelligence to go and look at the data yourself?

            Do you have the integrity and credibility to apologize.. ?????

          • “and don’t forget to carefully read’

            Yep, just another ignorant post

            SO WHAT.

            Still waiting for that apology..

            Or can’t you do the simple analysis by yourself ????

          • fred250

            What? To apologise ???

            You are writing here about a ridiculous ‘October gain’ nonsense, and I should apologise because I request from you to consider a full year balance for all years instead, like everybody does everywhere?

            Would concentrate on December gain if you were the owner of a business?

            Hilarious.

            J.-P. D.

          • So, you really haven’t got any integrity or HONESTY at all.. as predicted.

            Your are a moronic putz, with the brain and morality of a slug.

            October gains have been HIGHER the over the last 10 years than at any time in the 1980.

            even this year will be higher than most.

            You have NOTHING

            You are an empty sack !!

          • on 30 Oct griff said..

            “the ice cover growth which has been remarkably lacking over the last 7 weeks?”

            Data PROVES he was LYING or IGNORANT

            Which are you, Bin Laden, dishonest or ignorant ? or BOTH ✔

      • “What nonsense.”

        The nsidc graph I posted shows it quite clearly.
        From 1979-1989, no year in that decade had attained the 3 million Km² for the month of October.

        The decade we are about to leave had 5 years @+3 million Km², with 3 years not far off that.

        October 2008 recorded over 4 million Km².

        • Thank you CB,

          DATA is what data is.

          If these clowns can’t be bothered looking at the actual data before spouting off ignorant nonsense,…

          …. you can’t help them.

      • Thanks griff, I had concluded earlier that the climate troll line of thinking was attempting to erase knowledge of medium and long run ocean temperature cycles and the ongoing data collection systems and research tied to them. Now I realize it goes beyond that to include knowledge of data lag effects of those warming cycles.

        https://i1.wp.com/www.climate4you.com/images/NOAA%20SST-NorthAtlantic%20GlobalMonthlyTempSince1979%20With37monthRunningAverage.gif

        https://i2.wp.com/www.climate4you.com/images/AMO%20GlobalAnnualIndexSince1856%20With11yearRunningAverage.gif

        As for hiding the warming at depth, I don’t think so….

        https://climate4you.com/images/ArgoTimeSeriesTemp59N.JPG

      • fred250 October 30, 2020 at 1:54 pm
        The Arctic sea is has RECOVERED a small amount from the extreme high of the late 1970’s

        This has been HIGHLY BENEFICIAL for Arctic sea life
        fred250 October 30, 2020 at 6:53 pm
        It allows Arctic sea life to return to the Arctic after being frozen out since the LIA.

        According to you both more ice and less ice are beneficial! Which is it?

        • YAWN

          You can’t even comprehend basic English can you, you poor mindless muppet.

          The recovery IS the highly beneficial drop in sea ice.

          Seriously, are trying to mark yourself as a complete moron..?

        • fred250 November 1, 2020 at 12:00 pm
          YAWN

          You can’t even comprehend basic English can you, you poor mindless muppet.

          The recovery IS the highly beneficial drop in sea ice.

          You should familiarize yourself with the terminology of the subject:
          ‘recovery’ of sea ice refers to the increase of sea ice, ‘decline’ refers to a drop in sea ice

          Seriously, are trying to mark yourself as a complete moron..?

          No I leave that to you.

          • You are obviously TOTALLY IGNORANT about Arctoc sea ice history.

            The ANOMALY over the last 10,000 years has been the LIA and late 1970s

            Are you actually DENYING that fact.. really !!!

            Only a complete moron thinks that those extreme levels of sea ice are normal or desirable for Arctic sea life.

            Only a person that absolutely hates Arctic sea life would want it constrained by metres of thick ice all year round.

            Why keep showing your abject ignorance ?????

            The RECOVERY has been the drop down to more normal Holocene levels from the anomalous highs of the LIA.

            If you are SO DUMB and ignorant of climate history that you don’t know that, no-one can help your little wasted mind.

          • Why would I want toi use the INCORRECT terminology of a pack of mindless ignorant AGW religious fanatics?

            1… Do you have any empirical scientific evidence for warming by atmospheric CO2?

            2… In what ways has the global climate changed in the last 50 years , that can be scientifically proven to be of human causation?

            3… Do you have any evidence at all that the highly beneficial drop in Arctic sea ice from the extreme highs of the LIA and late 1970s has any human causation

            Keep running around making stupid cackling noises, its funny. 🙂

            Very much like a headless chook. https://i.postimg.cc/3xHjgrSS/HC.jpg

    • Climate believer October 30, 2020 at 8:42 am
      “In 2019, during the second half of the month, ice began to grow quickly along the coastal regions of the East Siberian and Laptev Seas.” nsidc
      Latest sea ice image for 29th Oct shows exactly that this year.

      Whereas this year that rapid growth occurred in the last three days of the month.

      October Total Ice Gains have been greater in recent years than they were in the 80’s.

      Yes because in the 80’s they started at 8 million sq km and increased to ~10 million during October, in contrast in the 2010’s they started at 5 million and ended at 8 million. This year it started ~4 million and finished at ~6.6 million, consequently in recent years we have about half as much older, thick ice each winter than in the 80’s

      • Facts are facts. Recent October GAINS have been much higher than in the 1980s..

        GET OVER IT.

        So you are saying that the slightly sluggish start this October was because there was SO MUCH ARCTIC SEA ICE.

        Are you a HATER of Arctic sea life like griff is

        You think it is a good thing that the Arctic was frozen over in the LIA and late 1970s?

        You prefer sea ice to SEA LIFE.

        You are just another rampant ANTI-life ANTI-environmentalist.

      • fred250 November 1, 2020 at 12:06 pm
        Facts are facts. Recent October GAINS have been much higher than in the 1980s..

        GET OVER IT.

        So you are saying that the slightly sluggish start this October was because there was SO MUCH ARCTIC SEA ICE.

        No quite the opposite, it was due to the very low level of sea ice and therefore a high level of open sea water which had warmed to a higher than normal temperature and therefore a slow refreeze.
        As shown above even after the gains in recent years the sea ice extent at the end of October doesn’t reach the extent at the beginning of October in the 80’s.

        Are you a HATER of Arctic sea life No!

        • You obviously are a hater of Arctic sea life.

          You think huge expanses of frozen sea all year round are good.

          You are an idiot, sea life lives in the water NOT in ice.

          The current levels of Arctic sea ice ARE NOT LOW, they are still very high compared to the last 10,000 years

          Stop being a moronic climate change denier.

          1… Do you have any empirical scientific evidence for warming by atmospheric CO2?

          2… In what ways has the global climate changed in the last 50 years , that can be scientifically proven to be of human causation?

          3… Do you have any evidence at all that the highly beneficial drop in Arctic sea ice from the extreme highs of the LIA and late 1970s has any human causation

        • fred250 November 1, 2020 at 10:50 pm
          You are an idiot, sea life lives in the water NOT in ice.

          Really? I guess you haven’t read the Stein paper you keep linking to in support of your Holocene assertions!

          • dodge and weave, little minded one. So funny .. you are like a pretzel as you twist and turn in evasion

            The current levels of Arctic sea ice ARE NOT LOW, they are still very high compared to the last 10,000 years… Proven by MULTIPLE references.

            Stop being a moronic climate change denier. and answer the questions

            1… Do you have any empirical scientific evidence for warming by atmospheric CO2?

            2… In what ways has the global climate changed in the last 50 years , that can be scientifically proven to be of human causation?

            3… Do you have any evidence at all that the highly beneficial drop in Arctic sea ice from the extreme highs of the LIA and late 1970s has any human causation

          • fred250 November 2, 2020 at 11:38 am
            dodge and weave, little minded one. So funny .. you are like a pretzel as you twist and turn in evasion

            You’re the one who’s dodging and weaving, you made an assertion which contradicts one of your data sources so I called you on it.

            The current levels of Arctic sea ice ARE NOT LOW, they are still very high compared to the last 10,000 years… Proven by MULTIPLE references.

            Not supported by this one for example:
            https://arctic.noaa.gov/Portals/7/EasyDNNNews/thumbs/690/721osborne-Fig3.png

          • LOL …. you continue to plumb the VERY DEPTHS OF IGNORANCE.

            I say 10,000 years, you produce the LIA

            You are pointless and ignorant all in one.

            https://i.postimg.cc/LXmygrQ0/Arctic-Sea-Ice-Extent-North-of-Iceland-3000-Years-Moffa-S-nchez.jpg

            https://i.postimg.cc/T1KQgBz5/Arctic-Greenland-Sha-17.png

            https://i.postimg.cc/TYWZMHb1/Arctic-Sea-Ice-Changes-Chukchi-Sea-Yamamoto-2017.jpg

            Now, try again , you bumbling fool !

            1… Do you have any empirical scientific evidence for warming by atmospheric CO2?

            2… In what ways has the global climate changed in the last 50 years , that can be scientifically proven to be of human causation?

            3… Do you have any evidence at all that the highly beneficial drop in Arctic sea ice from the extreme highs of the LIA and late 1970s has any human causation

          • fred250 November 3, 2020 at 3:24 am

            I say 10,000 years, you produce the LIA

            No I produced the last 2,000 years which also includes the Medieval Warm Period, the data I linked to showed the last ten years to be lower than any time in those 2,000 years.
            Also the Holocene plots you show contain no data from the last 70 years.

          • Then its a farce, and proven wrong by MANY other studies.

            But you knew that didn’t you, FOOL !!

            Try again, irksome COWARD

            1… Do you have any empirical scientific evidence for warming by atmospheric CO2?

            2… In what ways has the global climate changed in the last 50 years , that can be scientifically proven to be of human causation?

            3… Do you have any evidence at all that the highly beneficial drop in Arctic sea ice from the extreme highs of the LIA and late 1970s has any human causation

          • You mean you don’t know the 1970s were up there with the LIA.

            No-one can help your mind-numbed IGNORANCE can they Phlip. !!

            1… Do you have any empirical scientific evidence for warming by atmospheric CO2?

            2… In what ways has the global climate changed in the last 50 years , that can be scientifically proven to be of human causation?

            3… Do you have any evidence at all that the highly beneficial drop in Arctic sea ice from the extreme highs of the LIA and late 1970s has any human causation

Comments are closed.