World Wheat Crop Heads For New Record

Reposted from Not A Lot Of People Know That.

By Paul Homewood

You won’t see this reported by Roger Harrabin!

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IMPROVED late-season yield prospects in greater Europe and Australia have lifted the estimate for global wheat production by 5.9 million tonnes (Mt) from the previous Agricultural Market Information Systems (AMIS) estimate released last month.

The lift was offset by a total 1Mt decline in projections in Canada and Argentina.

Table 1. FAO AMIS world wheat projections in million tonnes. Numbers on each second line are world excluding China. Source: FAO AMIS

The net 4.8Mt increase lifts the forecast for the world 2020-21 wheat crop to a record 764.9Mt, pipping by just a few million tonnes the previous records set in 2019-20 and 2017-18 (chart 1).

This month’s upward revisions included Australia and the EU, both up 2.2Mt from last month’s estimate, a 1Mt lift for the Russian Federation, and Ukraine up 500,000t.

Utilisation in 2020-21 is expected to grow at a slightly faster pace than projected earlier, supported by stronger feed use in China.

Conditions mostly favourable

In Argentina, conditions are mixed, with recent rainfall in the south improving conditions. However, in the north and west regions, crop conditions are poor and mostly irreversible due to prolonged dryness throughout the season.

AMIS GEOGLAM crop calendar. Legend below indicates critical phases and activities during the season.

In Australia, conditions are generally favourable except for Queensland which experienced persistent dryness and Western Australia following a dry September.

By contrast, New South Wales is showing exceptional conditions with an expansion of sown area.

In Canada, spring wheat harvest is progressing under favourable conditions with slightly above average yields expected.

In the EU, winter-wheat sowing has begun under generally favourable conditions except for France and Romania where dryness from the summer persists.

In the Russian Federation, spring-wheat harvesting is wrapping up under favourable conditions. Winter-wheat sowing is progressing under dry conditions, particularly in the south, which is hampering emergence and more rainfall is needed before winter dormancy.

In Ukraine, sowing of winter wheat is beginning under mixed conditions due to drought across much of the country, which is delaying sowing for much of the crop.

In the US, sowing of winter wheat is ongoing under favourable conditions.

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John Tillman
October 23, 2020 6:09 am

More plant food in the air helps.

Ron Long
Reply to  John Tillman
October 23, 2020 6:37 am

Thanks, John, I’m sure you are saying I am helping by driving my SUV around. I like wheat, especially blueberry pancakes, so I am happy to help out. Hoping to stay a week in Viña del Mar Sheraton as soon as reasonably possible. Cheers.

Abolition Man
Reply to  Ron Long
October 23, 2020 8:29 am

Ron,
A healthier alternative is Cinnamon French Toast with lots of maple syrup and fresh sliced strawberries on top! I like to use a nice whole wheat bread and let the egg/cinnamon mix soak in a bit before cooking in lots of butter! More fat and protein counteract the carbs of the bread and syrup a little bit.
Whole wheat bread is also great for turkey stuffing which I won’t be making this year since our idiot politicians are still trying to scare us to death with the ChiCom-19 virus!

Ron Long
Reply to  Abolition Man
October 23, 2020 10:35 am

Good alternative, Abolition Man, I think I’ll go for the combination plate to cover all bases. Cheers.

Ryan
Reply to  Ron Long
October 24, 2020 1:27 am

Needs crispy bacon and fried banana with that.

Curious George
Reply to  John Tillman
October 23, 2020 8:04 am

These fear-mongering fake news should be banned 🙂

Greg
Reply to  Curious George
October 23, 2020 9:54 am

greater Europe , is that where Russia lives ??

Don’t mention Russia! I mentioned it once , but I think I got away with it.

MarkW
Reply to  John Tillman
October 23, 2020 11:59 am

CO2 is a net positive for the planet.
Instead of taxing it, we should be subsidizing it.

Richard (the cynical one)
Reply to  John Tillman
October 23, 2020 5:28 pm

Amazing what a little demonized CO2 can do. Trouble is, the Malthusians would prefer to have mass starvation and so decrease the surplus population. “Ya gotta be cruel to be kind”, is their anthem.

Johann Wundersamer
October 23, 2020 6:22 am

Not on THIS thread:

More surfacestations project vindication: Strong UHI temperature biases confirmed in USA | Watts Up With That?

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/09/28/more-surfacestations-project-vindication-strong-uhi-temperature-biases-confirmed-in-usa/

The difference is: lanes in the country – broken by aisles in the towns

https://www.google.com/search?q=buildings&client=ms-android-huawei&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8&ctxs=2&ctxsl_trans=1&tlitetl=de&tlitetxt=buildings

Bruce Cobb
October 23, 2020 7:27 am

Uh-ohs, more food = more planet-destroying carbon-spewing people. It’s worse than we thought, and we’re doomed. Farmers are “destroying the planet”.

Komerade Cube
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
October 23, 2020 7:37 am

This is unprecedented! I predict that by 2013 there will be no more wheat / snow / ice / coastland / pacific islands / polar bears / Greenland / rainforest / climate deniers / etc… Send more grant money.

Joel Snider
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
October 23, 2020 7:44 am

Isn’t amazing you can say something like that, in pure sarcasm, and yet, you’re not far off from the greenie-talking points.

TonyG
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
October 23, 2020 9:13 am

Beat me to it!

ResourceGuy
October 23, 2020 7:39 am

Sorry but this does not fit with doom models. Newsrooms must ignore this until the good news “all clear” signal is triggered.

October 23, 2020 8:33 am

Of course, not everyone loves wheat. https://www.wheatbellyblog.com He says the man altered wheat varieties are bad…go back to the old low yield varieties.

Gordon A. Dressler
Reply to  T. C. Clark
October 23, 2020 3:18 pm

“Of course, not everyone loves wheat.”

That will come as a big disappointment to those favoring certain brands of whisky, vodka, and gin as well as many brands of beer.

October 23, 2020 9:14 am

Yields of my soft white winter wheat in Washington State in US without irrigation have set new records each of the last 10 years, increasing from 90 bushels per acre (6.1 tonnes/ha) in 2010 to 98 bu/ac (6.6 t/ha) this year, or more than double yields of the 1950s. We also sold 1.5 t/ha of straw used for livestock supplement in Canada. Of great assistance are new cultivars, the use of new herbicides manufactured from petrochemicals to block both broadleaf and grassy weeds and of course lots of nitrogen fertilizers manufactured from petrochemicals. Did I mention the equipment to do this requires petrochemicals. ‘Such are the”petrochemicals cubed” that Biden would eliminate’. How much of the improvement that comes from carbon dioxide is uncertain, so perhaps someone can answer that. As the control of grassy weeds began in 2010 perhaps the benefit from carbon dioxide is the difference since 2010.

Reasonable profits although small are very important since our operation at less than 500 acres in size began by my grandfather 110 years ago relies on “repairmanship” of less expensive well worn equipment thrown off by the mega-sized farms of the region. Our 1970’s manufactured tractor in Manitoba is not battery powered.

Peter W
Reply to  David Boleneus
October 23, 2020 9:24 am

“Our 1970’s manufactured tractor in Manitoba is not battery powered.”

Oh, dear me! We will have to do something about that. Have you considered getting a couple of oxen to tow it around?

Reply to  Peter W
October 23, 2020 10:01 am

Peter W
“Have you considered getting a couple of oxen to tow it around?”

Care to volunteer your labor? I don’t recall you when we needed help to plant trees.

David A
Reply to  David Boleneus
October 25, 2020 12:01 am

David 0kease go to CO2 science website to know how much benefit is directly related to increased CO2.

As I recall going from 280 ppm pre industrial, to 410 ppm would be about a 20 percent increase in bio-mass. ( As well as greater drought tolerance, greater frost resistance, and the increased production required 0 increase on land or water.

Place monetary value on that to every crop globally, and maybe we have to pay Exxon.

October 23, 2020 10:00 am

As we can see, CC is a crisis for people hoping for a decreasing population.

fred250
October 23, 2020 2:52 pm

Use COAL.. FEED THE WORLD ! 🙂

Plants LUV CO2. comment image

Robert of Texas
October 23, 2020 4:02 pm

This has to be a fake story! Everyone knows that CO2 and Climate Change killed off all wheat off years ago. We only have…what…11 years until the end of the world?

The only possible way to bring wheat back to life is to build giant wind turbines to cool them, and solar panels to reflect the heat away.

(It’s hard to take AGW seriously anymore…it is SO debunked.)

Pat from kerbob
October 23, 2020 5:39 pm

Had a pretty beautiful fall here in canada on the prairies
Harvest went well

Nicest fall in memory, which of course is bad

The last couple weeks of December weather kind of balances it out nicely here in Calgary

Peta of Newark
October 24, 2020 12:57 am

Maybe you *will* hear fro the Wheeliebin..

I didn’t bookmark it but from their weekly email, The Farmers Weekly (magazine) said the UK whaet was *down* from its usual 15m tonnes to circa 10m tonnes this year.

Due to inclement weather, and we all know what causes *that*

There are ‘health commentators’ out there who will assert that because wheat gluten is such a sticky protein, it and fragments of it, attach themselves very firmly to all sorts of places inside of us that they ‘maybe shouldn’t’
Our immune system then thinks our cells with these ‘stickies’ attached are alien and sets about killing/removing what are otherwise still viable cells. Immune system then goes on to remove said cells even when they don’t have any gluten attached and are still healthy

IOW, wheat gluten vaccinates us, against ourselves and (here’s the Weasel Word) *may* be at the root of any one or more of 200 different autoimmune diseases.

*If* our immune systems are thus fully occupied fending off wheat gluten and generally dismantling healthy cells/bodies, what might happen if something a little more insidious came along……….

October 24, 2020 9:12 am

What would it take for school teachers to be able to teach their pupils that human activity can be good for the environment?

Pat from kerbob
Reply to  Phil Salmon
October 24, 2020 1:23 pm

Deprogramming

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