Guest “because climate change” by David Middleton
From the October 1, 2020 issue of Physics Today… Well, physics the day after tomorrow (good movie title)…
1 OCTOBER 2020 • page 26
The Great Lakes are filled to their brims, with no signs of receding
Experts see the fingerprints of climate change on the lakes’ record high water levels.
David KramerPhysics Today 73, 10, 26 (2020); https://doi.org/10.1063/PT.3.4589
Seven years ago, Ron Wilson’s son was married on the beach in front of his cottage on the eastern shore of Lake Michigan. Were the couple to renew their vows today in the same spot, they’d be standing in nearly two meters of water. The 18-meter-wide beach has vanished, and the lake is now lapping at a steel seawall Wilson erected last winter to keep storms away from his foundation.
[…]
Water levels have always fluctuated on the Great Lakes, but the recent extreme seesawing, particularly on the upper lakes—Superior, Michigan, and Huron—is unprecedented in the century that records have been kept (see charts). Michigan and Huron, which are linked and share the same level, stood at record highs in August, 84 cm above their historic average. The two lakes bottomed out at record lows in 2013. Although a relatively modest 25 cm above average, Superior in 2020 was just 5 cm below its record peak for August set a year ago.
[…]
Signs of climate changeThe past 10 years have been the wettest on record for the Great Lakes watershed. Andrew Gronewold, associate professor for environment and sustainability at the University of Michigan, says the rainy years began well before the 2013 ebb in the upper lakes. An extended period of excess evaporation that started in 1998 more than offset the added precipitation until the polar vortex event in early 2014 caused most of the lakes to freeze over. Since then, water supply has exceeded evaporation, partly because of several especially cold winters, Gronewold says. He adds that the 2014–17 period saw the fastest three-year increase in water levels since record-keeping began.
Donald Wuebbles, professor of atmospheric science at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, says precipitation over the watershed has risen 10% over the past century and is expected to grow another 10% over the next. Precipitation in the Great Lakes region is increasingly occurring in larger events, researchers say. As a result, more rainfall runs off into streams and rivers feeding the lakes instead of being absorbed in soils. The lakes themselves make up a major portion of the watershed.
“The rate at which precipitation has changed over the past decade simply cannot be explained by historical variability alone,” says Gronewold. “The best explanation is a warming atmosphere and warming global temperature.”
[…]
Physics Today
The article provides this USACE chart of historical lake levels…
The caption in the article must be a typo…
Water levels on the Great Lakes have fluctuated irregularly over the past century. The peaks and troughs on Lakes Michigan and Huron have been especially pronounced. From a record low in 2013, they have surged to record highs this year. (US Army Corps of Engineers.)
Michigan-Huron appears to have been just as low as 2013 in 1965-1966 and within 1 foot of that low in the mid-1920’s and mid-1930’s. The “record highs this year” don’t look any higher than 1987 and the mid-1970’s, mid-1950’s and 1930 appear to have been within 1 foot of those record highs. I
What does the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) data show?
The peaks and troughs on Lakes Michigan and Huron have been especially pronounced. From a record low in 2013, they have surged to record highs this year.
This year isn’t over. The most recent full year of USACE records is 2019. Lakes Michigan-Huron set no monthly record highs in 2019 and only one record monthly low in 2013. 11 monthly record highs were set in 1986 and 1 in 1987. Most of the Great Lakes monthly record highs were set in the mid-1980’s. 10 of the monthly record lows for Michigan-Huron were set in 1964. The vast majority of record monthly lows for the other lakes were set in the 1920’s and 1930’s.
What’s really funny? They tell us that climate change caused these record highs and lows and will make the seesawing worse… But…
Longer term, it’s anyone’s guess where lake levels are headed. The range of possibilities in the six-month forecasts by the US Army Corps of Engineers is so broad in the latter months as to be of little use, researchers say.
Physics Today
“Wuebbles is working with Argonne National Laboratory to refine a regional North American climate model to run at 4 km resolution. That should enable the simulation of clouds and convection needed to visualize precipitation trends. The model will be paired with the National Hydrologic Model. “If you were to ask me four or five years from now,” Wuebbles says, “I’d be in much better shape to tell you what’s happening to the lakes.”
This is from PHYSICS TODAY, not yesterday, not tomorrow. I have seen lots of shoreline in my life, even some along the Great Lakes, wonder never ceases at where people build. Living in a hypothetical world, wonderful ideas as long as you check them out. At least that’s what I learned in physics classes, even in high school. Most go to the trash pile. Some are kept around for a long time with the ‘beauty’ of the idea.
A better climate prediction is like Fusion Energy, always just over the horizon. All they need is for the public to just keep shoveling in the money to furnace.
The Wimpy Burger Scam: “I’ll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today”.
Wuebbles: “I’ll gladly give you a climate update in 4-5 years for more money today.”
Well, my prediction for the Great Lakes is that they will continue to hold as much water as possible, having a smashing good time pounding the shoreline during really, really bad storms, freeze as much surface water they can in the winter, and basically continue to confound the luminaries who pretend to themselves that they are smarter than Mother Nature.
Really, if they’re so smart, how come we can only get barely accurate one week weather forecasts, what with all the technology and past histories available to meteorology????
The US Army Corps of Engineers Detroit District has current and historic datum (Ire.usace.army.mil). Early 19th Century Great Lakes water level records were kept in Chicago because of shipping on Lake Michigan/Huron. The Soo Locks built in 1855 permitted shipping from Lake Superior to the lower Great Lakes with the Welland Canal bypassing Niagara Falls in 1833.
Water levels going back that far demonstrate quite a varied record. The climate has varied over the last 2 centuries and a long term record suggests Great Lakes water levels have varied as well. There is no recent evidence for Global Warming’s impact on water levels.
” An extended period of excess evaporation that started in 1998 more than offset the added precipitation until the polar vortex event in early 2014 caused most of the lakes to freeze over. Since then, water supply has exceeded evaporation, partly because of several especially cold winters, Gronewold says.”
Curious statement as most evaporation of the Great Lakes occurs during autumn and winter times, just before substantial ice covers the surface (ice maximum usually late January to February. The relatively warm water is evaporated by the fast moving very dry and cold Arctic air, the so-called “Alberta Clipper”. Mild winters have less ice formation. The 2019/2020 winter had less evaporation and only 9% ice cover at the maximum. Hence, high water from 2019 persists through 2020. Using the USACE data from yesterday notice that current water levels are similar to those of last year in spite of “a wet year 2020”. Precipitation does matter, primarily in Northern Ontario feeding Lake Superior and upper Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.
I would like to see a description of the models the folks in Ann Arbor are using to inform them that current climate change is leading to rising Great Lakes water levels.
I’m officially sick of the unprecedented use of the word unprecedented.
To those ignorant of history, whether willfully ignorant or just plain ignorant, things may appear unprecedented.
To those who do the slightest work to understand the past not much is unprecedented.
Climate has always changed. Viruses and diseases have plagued mankind for – as long as there has been mankind.
Lastly greed and corruption have also plagued mankind for our entire history and continue through the present in blatant attempts to create fear using the above “tools” to do so in a shallow and pathetic desire to control all of us, but most particularly the “wealthy”. After all there’s not much point in trying to make the desperately poor feel guilty over phony scams such as the above.
The only thing “unprecedented” is the scale of the current greed and corruption.
I had noticed that there was a reduction in the use of “unprecedented” over the last year or so, replaced by “historic”. But now “unprecedented” is making a comeback.
It appears that younger people, having missed studying history, think everything is new and “unprecedented” or “historic”, whereas for us old folks, it’s just the way things were when we were kids.
Carry on.
Progressive notions can no more be dislodged or tipped over than an island can be.
Pick any topic.
Once any progressive notion is raised, distributed and consumed by the left it becomes a parroted cliche and an immovable object regardless of what forces of fact are applied.
I beg your pardon, Steve, but Hank Johnson, who used to be a member of the House of Representatives, was concerned that if 1500 Marines were sent to the Island of Guam, the island would tip over.
You see, if you can imagine it being done, it can be done, including tipping over an island by sending too many US Marines ashore for duty there. 🙂
Well if Hank Johnson said it, it must be true! Only thing to make it truer would be if you got it off the internet. 😉
A Toronto real estate lawyer was the go to guy back in 2013 AD.
“The Great Lakes have been receding due to climate change and water use, so beachfront has been expanding in some cases. The question is: who owns the land when the water retreats?”
https://www.thestar.com/business/personal_finance/2013/04/19/as_cottage_lakes_recede_who_owns_the_extra_beach.html
Cursory Google search reveals that Lake Superior and other Great Lakes water levels are regulated, in case of the Superior, for the last 80 years. Complaints about water levels should be addressed to the regulators.
All very interesting. I haven’t visited the USA’s North Shore [just east of Cleveland] since 1967.
Not too long ago (1983-86 ?) The Great Salt Lake was overflowing.
Story with photos
“. . .the state installed three massive pumps—costing $60 million—to propel water into the West Desert ”
Now it is quite low.
Plans are being developed to save it.
Keeping up with global “whatever” is hard.
This is from 2012, interesting how it changes. https://blog.nationalgeographic.org/2012/11/20/warming-lakes-climate-change-and-variability-drive-low-water-levels-on-the-great-lakes/?fbclid=IwAR1E6-aJArINIbk7iGEXjRBrBKlAp-bfBTvCmlm_xcqxMiC5uY5ymwcHYTE
More “gerbil worming” in Victoria and South Australia
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-25/snow-falls-victoria-spring-cold-weather-record-ballarat/12705416
Coldest September day in 50 years.
I don’t know why they’re complaining. I really don’t. I had to start my furnace up on September 9th, which I have never, ever had to do before. Has to be a record. I’m sure I”m not the only person who set the furnace going, either. And while it did warm up briefly a couple days ago, it’s back to 45F or less at night and the furnace is busy. I expect a chill overnight on Friday –> Saturday of down to 37F, if the National Weather Service’s forecast is accurate.
The weathermen weren’t predicting snow last week. Now, they may start doing so.
You can keep it please
After a terrible spring and early summer we’ve had the best August and September in years here in calgary.
No Snowtember this year, when we got a foot of snow in early September tearing down millions of tree branches
Still haven’t brought in my tomatoes and the 2 week forecast still doesn’t show freezing
I suppose that too is our fault, in which I’m fully on board
Warm=good
Yes, Pat, is absolutely IS your fault. You have the unmitigated nerve to brag about still have tomatoes to pick and nice weather, to boot. It is SUCH a disgrace!!!! You should be looking and your feet and giggling about it.
I would, anyway. Have a nice day! Enjoy the tomatoes!
There’s a problem not mentioned here. People and cities built according to the lake margins from ten to a hundred years ago. The Corps says the margins lose an average foot a year. That can change. A beautiful beach….didn’t used to be there. Or…now you have a beach. Or, in the mid Eighties, a good many people moved their homes back because the rising levels and a horrid November storm ate up, in some cases, twenty feet of margin. That’s horizontal. Once the last check to the house movers cleared, the lakes started to recede. Now they’re back up. All the graph stuff is very well, but the lake shores are not not characterized by sand, or by the bottom of a dune going straight into the water, but by massive revetments of rocks. Standard is eight tons per linear foot. The companies doing the work are even going to Canada for the rocks.
In one western Michigan town, a retail strip near the river had to be torn down because of water…the water level…was in its foundations.
The lakes are so high that rivers feeding them are backed up.
This is worse than the Eighties when the house movers got rich. Not many people with lakefront property have another seventy-five feet to move inland.
I have been told water seeks its own level so many times I’ve come to believe it. But why doesn’t it? There are no artificial restrictions between the upper lakes and Niagara Falls.
Google Earth can show some of the lake level fluctuations.
The following link shows the Lakefront around Navy Pier from a few years ago. The picture contains, from north to south, The Jardine Water Purification Plant, Navy Pier, the rocky ruins of Dime Pier, and the twin edges of the Chicago River Locks.
https://earth.google.com/web/@41.89052158,-87.60024038,177.27897321a,2592.28988562d,35y,0h,0t,0r
Take a good look at the substantial ruins of Dime Pier. Today, Dime Pier is totally submerged, forcing the City of Chicago to place Hazard Buoys (Aids to Navigation) above the ruins to keep the approach to the locks safe.
Turn on the Photos option in the left menu and look closely for Dime Pier in the available images to see the water level fluctuate.
This older photo shows all four structures …
https://lh5.ggpht.com/p/AF1QipPuDLw1jP8omXG1QfvibG0Gge_zi8988IewFB_M=w1920
The margins of this recent photo of Navy Pier clearly show the water treatment plant on the right and the locks on the left, but Dime Pier is now completely submerged …
https://lh5.ggpht.com/p/AF1QipO0UO4SxQQGy1Pg53_T5RjPf67U7tiriQ-d_4tO=w1920
This older photo was taken from the locks looking north at Navy Pier with Dime Pier in the foreground.
https://lh5.ggpht.com/p/AF1QipMPOehI73qGuq_EdEiM2ROT0N3irwQqsWV6cl_c=w1920
Up-close old photo of Dime Pier for scale. The tree has since died from flooding and shearing from the winter ice flows.
https://lh5.ggpht.com/p/AF1QipMDLbBSVc7lDSt_0ShM2CYzN1oTNdldkbyaFJD9=w1920
Dime Pier half under water …
https://lh5.ggpht.com/p/AF1QipMdSmtH1bjUFCXK2fieCDNsW4lF3mmwCp2YIF68=w1920
Dime Pier mostly under water …
https://lh5.ggpht.com/p/AF1QipPevOJuehSWJMws06GcCvPmhKZwa2YoVU4Dqp-o=w1920
https://lh5.ggpht.com/p/AF1QipM23tPfW3teo4EDdTfvXTFgrX6O4rBV8PC8VaCk=w1920
https://lh5.ggpht.com/p/AF1QipNxx8lQjSD13udFxVYkaMikw8agxszVNf4HMOCs=w1920
Today, Dime Pier is totally underwater with Hazard Buoys floating above it.
Current web cam view from Navy pier …
https://www.cruisin.me/cruise-port-webcams/united-states/chicago-illinois/
On the horizon to the right is the Chicago Harbor Lighthouse. Coming towards the shore in-line with the lighthouse is the concrete tower on the end of Dime Pier. Where’s the rest of the pier?
Or you could just watch this video … from 2019 …
https://wgntv.com/news/unusually-high-water-levels-on-lake-michigan-causes-more-rescues-and-boat-crashes/
The Chicago Police Marine Unit appearing in the above video are first-rate stand-up guys. You can see them and their boats in January during the Chicago Boat Show.
The DryingOverflowing issue is just one more consequence along with the HeatCold and the DroughtFlood problems associated with Climate Change. You see, before the world invented internal combustion engines, the climate of the word was perfectly stable for billions and billions of years. We all realize how warm it became in the 12th century but thanks to a Papal order, SUVs in medieval London were ordered off the road and climate returned to normal, the sun stopped spotting, and we returned to the desired state of freezing cold and famine.
Good grief, this malarkey never lets up.
The report talks about rivers and streams feeding the lakes, surely there must be rivers and streams running out of the lakes to balance the levels.
That would be the St. Lawrence Seaway.
Well, physics the day after tomorrow (good movie title)…
Never watched it, couldn’t get past the propaganda premise.
One of the best bad science fiction movies ever made… Right up there with 2012 and Armageddon.
I loved the twin Cessna scene where they were flying though a downtown Los Angeles building being tossed up and then crumbled into the Pacific. Warmed my heart.
Ummm…
84 cm is approximately 33 inches. Half a foot less than the 39.37 inches required to be measured as a meter.
1) That makes Kramer’s claim of two meters fallacious.
2) Kramer’s reference to “historic average” is another proof where the use of “average” is without useful meaning. The sole purpose for the use of “average” in the news article is to cause fear.
1) That makes Kramer’s claim of two meters fallacious.
Not just fallacious, but deceptive. He also states “Were the couple to renew their vows today in the same spot, they’d be standing in nearly two meters of water. The 18-meter-wide beach has vanished” to make you think that rising sea level is what did it. However, Erosion is often the biggest culprit in beaches disappearing, as is the case with the eastern shore of Lake Michigan. the water didn’t rise by two meters (as the “historic average” high number shows), rather most of those two meters is sand that was eroded away.
How would “global warming” be responsible for rising lake levels? If the change in lake level is due to (precipitation + inflow – evaporation – outflow), one would surmise that evaporation would increase in warmer weather, which in relatively high latitudes like the Great Lakes would correlate with more sunshine and less precipitation. This would imply that rising lake levels would be due to a locally COOLING climate.
So maybe those lakefront dwellers might want to increase their CO2 emissions to promote more evaporation and less precipitation, or ask the canal managers near Detroit to let some more water out into Lake Erie and over Niagara Falls.
Flooding in 2017 and 2019 was caused by the implementation of “PLAN 2014” iniated by the IJC (International Joint Commission) starting January 1, 2017 which aimed “to restore 26,000 hectares (64,000 acres) of coastal wetlands and improve habitat for fish and wildlife.” That’s why the fish were swimming on the front lawns. The “climate change” advocates inserted themselves into the planning stages of the IJC which controls the Great Lakes water levels via the joint US/Canada owned Moses Saunders dam. The bureaucrats in charge simply followed the rules and lots of towns and cities felt the results. Lots of lawsuits have followed as well as lots of insurance claims.
Years ago people floated a plan to pipe water from the Great Lakes to irrigate California farms. People who live around the lakes panicked at the thought of California draining our lakes. But I’ll bet they’d be happy to sell a foot or two now.
What has not been mentioned in this whole thread is that The Great Lakes Basin in still in isostatic rebound from its depression from the weight of more a than a two mile thick sheet of ice. Anyone who has sailed The North Channel of Lake Huron between Manotoulin Island and the south shore of Ontario can attest to beach shelves that are now 100s of feet above the current lake level. The crust under the lakes is very geologically bouncy .
And now, are you ready for this:
https://www.foxnews.com/health/traces-coronavirus-lake-superior-water