The Week That Was: 2020-09-19 (September 19, 2020)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “It is one thing to impose drastic measures and harsh economic penalties when an environmental problem is clear-cut and severe. It is quite another to do so when the environmental problem is largely hypothetical and not substantiated by careful observations. This is definitely the case with global warming.” – Frederick Seitz, Introduction to Fred Singer’s Hot Talk, Cold Science (1999)
Number of the Week: 64%
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
NO TWTW NEXT WEEK: There will be no TWTW the week of September 26. TWTW will resume the weekend of October 3.
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William Happer and W. A. van Wijngaarten specialized in Atomic, Molecular and Optical Physics the field that includes spectroscopy, which is the study of the interaction between matter and electromagnetic radiation. They used the high-resolution transmission molecular absorption database (HITRAN), which simulates the transmission and emission of light in the atmosphere, to calculate the influence of a doubling of CO2 and a 6% increase in water vapor in the atmosphere. They arrive at an upper bound of 1.5 degrees K (C), more likely to be around 1 degree C, which is significantly less than the lowest estimate by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its climate modelers.
Happer and van Wijngaarten have estimated that without the greenhouse effect the temperature of the surface of the earth would be about 16 ºF (minus 9 ºC) well below freezing. Further, even assuming that liquid water would exist, at night the land masses would be bitterly cold, preventing any growth of vegetation.
This work is the cumulation of over 150 years of research in which there were a number of blind alleys or dead ends. For example, in 1896 Svente Arrhenius very roughly estimated that doubling CO2 might cause a temperature rise of maybe up to 5 ~ 6 C. Ten years later, he retracted that estimate, making a new estimate half that size. Others showed that the later estimates were still too high.
There is disagreement among those who have studied the problem on the extent to which water vapor accounts for the entire greenhouse effect. It may be 75% to 90%. But there is no disagreement it is the dominant greenhouse gas.
Further, what is vital in understanding the greenhouse effect is that as the concentration of a gas increases, its ability to cause a change in temperature diminishes to a condition called “saturation,” and it is accurate as well as convenient to represent the change by a logarithmic curve. In the case of CO2, its importance begins to decline even below 100 parts per million (ppm), and at 400 ppm the influence of carbon dioxide (CO2) is close to full saturation. – having little additional effect. Thus, enormous increases in CO2 are needed to have even a minor influence on temperature. Based on experiments and observations, so called “run-away greenhouse” on earth is impossible.
Unfortunately, some climate analysts who may not be familiar with mathematics may have confused a logarithmic relationship with its inverse, an exponential relationship. Exponential relationships between greenhouse gases and temperatures have been used in publications by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For example, the Summary for Policymakers of the Third Assessment Report (SPM, AR3 (2007)) showed exponential relationships between radiative forcing (an estimate for changes in temperatures) and carbon dioxide; methane; and nitrous oxide. In each instance, this was accomplished by grafting two different datasets onto one another, ice cores and atmospheric samples, without calibrating them. (pp 3 & 4)
Water vapor creates a major problem in modeling the atmosphere, and the climate. It varies significantly by latitude, season, day, and hour. For example, the MODTRAN (MODerate resolution atmospheric TRANsmission), version 6, computer code gives various values for concentrations of atmospheric water vapor: These include high values for the tropics, and different values for mid-late summer; mid-late winter, sub-Arctic summer, sub-Arctic winter, and US standard. The highest value is tropical, 5119 moles per unit at standard pressure and temperature; the lowest value is sub-Arctic winter with 518 moles at standard pressure and temperature, the US standard value is 1762 moles.
These values, based on satellite observations, are used to estimate how the changing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can distort electromagnetic radiation.
Thus, it is highly questionable if climate modeling without rigorous testing against physical data of the atmosphere obtained through observations can be effective in estimating how the climate changes with changing greenhouse gases. The famous 1979 Charney Report presented no physical data supporting its estimates. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ar4-wg1-spm-1.pdf, and
http://modtran.spectral.com/modtran_faq
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Photosynthesis – Critical for Life: The second major greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, is critical for life above, on, and near the surface of the earth. Using energy from the sun, the process of photosynthesis converts H2O and CO2 into plant life. That in turn becomes food for other life forms. Photosynthesis is present from simple one-cell life (such as some bacteria and blue-green algae) all the way to huge plants as big as redwoods.
About 200 meters (650 ft) deep in the oceans, sunlight is not sufficient for the energy needed for photosynthesis. However, bacteria and other simple life forms use energy released by inorganic chemical reactions to produce food (sugar) in a process called chemosynthesis. In geothermal vents bacteria oxidize hydrogen sulfide, and a complex web of life has evolved around them. The floor of the Gulf of Mexico teems with life around hydrocarbon seeps, which release methane, asphalt, and other hydrocarbons. Thus far, it appears that only simple cell life such as bacteria can use chemosynthesis to produce food, while complex life such as mussels and tubeworms consume the bacteria or their subsequent products.
Thus, the current demonization of carbon dioxide and the greenhouse effect is a demonization of the foundations of life as we generally recognize it. As the late Frederic Seitz states in the quotation of the week:
“It is one thing to impose drastic measures and harsh economic penalties when an environmental problem is clear-cut and severe. It is quite another to do so when the environmental problem is largely hypothetical and not substantiated by careful observations. This is definitely the case with global warming.”
We must ask what are the careful observations used to justify the claims that increasing carbon dioxide is causing dangerous greenhouse gas warming? See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and https://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/facts/photochemo.html.
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Nomination of David Legates: The Professor of Climatology at the University of Delaware has been nominated to become Deputy Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Environmental Observation and Prediction at NOAA. An author or co-author of over 100 papers on climate, precipitation and similar topics, Legates has openly questioned the rigor of US National Climate Assessment reports. For this, he has earned the wrath of several members of Congress, including the Chair of the House Committee on Natural Resources and the Chair of the House Subcommittee on Water, Oceans, and Wildlife. They wrote the Acting Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a letter stating:
“Dr. Legates has testified before our Committee downplaying or downright refuting the anthropogenic drivers of our current climate crisis. He stated: ‘Climate has always changed, and weather is always variable due to complex, powerful natural forces. No efforts to stabilize the climate can possibly be successful.’ He went on: ‘…transition[ing] from fossil fuels to so called clean energy to protect us from climate change is a recipe for personal and economic disaster that will have virtually no impact on the Earth’s climate.’ NOAA’s own data, compiled over the 50 years of the agency’s existence, points to exactly the opposite. Specifically, the third National Climate Assessment coauthored by NOAA stated ‘Global climate is changing, and this is apparent across the United States in a wide range of observations. The global warming of the past 50 years is primarily due to human activities, predominantly the burning of fossil fuels.’
“Dr. Legates’ appointment is an extreme risk to the American public and an insult to the quality science and scientists at NOAA. This is yet another example of a disturbing trend in the infusion of a political agenda into science. Dr. Legates has gone on the record in opposition to sound science strictly for personal gain and the advancement of a political agenda. Such behaviors undermine the scientific integrity at NOAA and should not have a place in your agency.”
Apparently, these members of Congress believe that the climate system, which has never been in equilibrium can be stabilized; that change is primarily due to use of fossil fuels, when doubling carbon dioxide causes a disturbance of less than 2% of atmospheric energy flows; and that the (US) Third Assessment Report (2014) is a standard of excellence for NOAA. It is useful to review this standard of excellence. Its key findings include:
It is generally recognized that photosynthesis increases with increasing carbon dioxide. The greening of the earth is well established. The slide on ragweed pollen seasons demonstrates that the 2013 National Climate Assessment report is trivial and should be so treated. The decline in corn and soybean yields with increasing temperatures is directly contradicted by American farm yields and by the fact that tropical Brazil is a leading competitor in exports of corn (maize) and leads the US in exports of soybeans. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy and Change in US Administrations – Appointment.
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Updated US National Assessment: Writing for the UK Global Warming Policy Foundation, Paul Homewood examines the latest US National Climate Assessment (2018). As a career accountant in industry, Homewood believes in data, not speculative models. Using data mainly from NOAA he finds:
“• Average temperatures have risen by 0.15°F/decade since 1895, with the increase most marked in winter.
• There has been little or no rise in temperatures since the mid-1990s.
• Summers were hotter in the 1930s than in any recent years.
• Heatwaves were considerably more intense in decades up to 1960 than anything seen since.
• Cold spells are much less severe than they used to be.
• Central and Eastern regions have become wetter, with a consequent drastic reduction in drought. In the west, there has been little long-term change.
• While the climate has become wetter in much of the country, evidence shows that floods are not getting worse.
• Hurricanes are not becoming either more frequent or powerful.
• Tornadoes are now less common than they used to be, particularly the stronger ones.
• Sea-level rise is currently no higher than around the mid-20th century.
• Wildfires now burn only a fraction of the acreage they did prior to the Second World War
In short, the US climate is in most ways less extreme than it used to be. Temperatures are less extreme at both ends of the scale, storms less severe and droughts far less damaging. While it is now slightly warmer, this appears to have been largely beneficial.”
When it comes to what is happening in the US, look at the data, not what NOAA and politicians say is happening. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Show Me Evidence! Australian Senator Malcolm Roberts from Queensland may be one of the loneliest politicians around. He is taking on the claims of Australia’s national science agency, CSIRO, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization on its models and its claims about the dangers of global warming.
In so doing, he is posting a series of papers and interviews with noted scientists. The interviews include Astrophysicist Willie Soon, who is a director of SEPP, atmospheric temperature measurement pioneer John Christy, and Australian climate modeler David Evans. In his interview Soon states that science is a wonderful tool but is often misused. He exposes what he calls “scientific malpractice” by Science Magazine and the Australian Broadcasting Company about a paper called Marcott, et al. 2013. This paper, based on proxy data, claimed that current warming is unprecedented with temperatures higher than 90% of the entire Holocene (starting about 11,700 years ago). Current temperatures are close, but do not yet exceed the peak warming of the Holocene. The paper was quickly debunked but may appear again in an UN IPCC report.
Christy discussed models and how poorly they perform against actual atmospheric data – they are too sensitive to additional CO2 increasing the greenhouse effect and do not include the real processes by which the earth loses energy to space. Demonstrating the absurdity of the modeling and efforts to justify their sensitivity, Christy stated one model was run with the presumed conditions of the Early Eocene 55 million years ago, discussed in last week’s TWTW. The model warmed the planet to 55 ºC (131 ºF).
He also stated that the “the climate sensitivity” (temperature rise due to a doubling of atmospheric CO2) in current models vary by a factor of 3. It is hard to say that this type of climate science is based on physics when the models vary so widely. [TWTW note: Imagine calculating the lunar landing if gravity models varied by so much.] One of the problems is that models are based on parametrizations and speculated theories (hypotheses). Yet our ignorance of the climate system is enormous. For a Congressional hearing on controlling CO2, Christy used a model to remove all emissions from the US – made them all disappear, and the result was less than the actual natural monthly variation.
Climate modeler David Evans questioned whether it was possible to simulate the earth’s atmosphere with the multiple layered grid system used in models. Weather values, such as temperature and humidity, are represented by numbers, but many key features are much smaller than the cells in the grid – such as clouds and updrafts. TWTW would add that modeling water vapor, discussed above, and the three phases of water are other major problems. It would be interesting to see a US Congressional committee hearing conducted in a manner as Roberts conducted his interviews. Far too often the members of congress are too interested in parading their views than in learning what others think or the actual facts. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Urban Heat Island Effect: The urban heat island effect pertains to how urbanization is increasing the measures of surface temperature. This may be one source of the great overestimates in the models of atmospheric temperatures from rising CO2. Two studies (indicating that this effect is not properly accounted for in climate models) are presented in the links under Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science and Measurement Issues – Surface
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Significant Feat: Earlier TWTW had little use for “The Limits of Growth” by the Club of Rome. The models were poorly designed and tested. But an article by energy writer Daniel Yergin changed this view. After George Mitchell of Mitchell Energy read The Limits, he was concerned whether he could supply Chicago with natural gas as he was contracted to do. According to Yergin:
“In 1981, he read the draft of a journal article by one of his geologists. The article offered a hypothesis that ran counter to what was taught in geology and petroleum engineering classes. It suggested that commercial gas could be extracted deep underground from very dense rock—denser than concrete. This was the source rock, the ‘kitchen’ in which organic material was ‘cooked’ for several million years and transformed into oil or gas. According to the textbooks, the oil and gas then migrated into reservoirs, from which it could be extracted.
“It was thought at the time that oil and gas might still remain in the shale but could not be produced on a commercial basis because they could not flow through the dense rock. The draft article disagreed. Mitchell, beset by worries about the contract for Chicago, became convinced that here might be the road to his company’s salvation. There had to be a way to prove the received wisdom wrong.”
The rest is history as seen by the financial success of hydraulic fracturing combined with horizontal drilling. See link under Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
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Number of the Week: 64%: Many alarmists are claiming greater storms and more severe weather. For the Atlantic, part of the problem is that now NOAA is naming storms that previously were ignored or not even known to exist. The most useful data for estimating storms and their severity are Accumulated Cyclone (Hurricane) Energy. Paul Homewood looks at the data (Sep 9) and writes:
“While the Accumulated Cyclone Energy is running 28% above average in the Atlantic, globally it is well below, at 64%.
“Global hurricane numbers are also lower this year, as are the number of major hurricanes. There is no evidence of increasing hurricane frequency or intensity, despite the BBC’s attempts to mislead otherwise.”
Do not believe that what is happening in the Atlantic is happening everywhere. See links under Changing Weather and http://climatlas.com/tropical/
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Solar Cycle 25 has officially begun
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 15, 2020
Link to News Release: Hello Solar Cycle 25
By Staff, NOAA, Sep 15, 2020
https://www.weather.gov/news/201509-solar-cycle
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
Solar Cycle 25 To Repeat Low Cycle 24, Scientists Predict
By David Whitehouse, GWPF, Sep 16, 2020
Link to report: The next solar cycle: And why it matters for climate
By David Whitehouse, GWPF, 2020
“What a continuation of low solar activity would mean for global warming is something that will take a long time to judge.”
“Most climate scientists say its small change in radiance during its 11-year solar cycle – about one per cent – means that its effect is minor.”
[SEPP Comment: Yet a doubling of CO2 may have an influence of only 1 to 2% on earth’s energy flow to space, and most climate scientists say it can be devastating.]
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
Download with no charge:
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Methane and Climate
By W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, CO2 Coalition, April 2020
An oversimplified picture of the climate behavior based on a single process can lead to distorted conclusions
By Richard S. Lindzen, The European Physical Journal Plus, June 3, 2020
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1140/epjp/s13360-020-00471-z
Pervasive Warming Bias in CMIP6 Tropospheric Layers
By Ross McKitrick and John Christy, Earth and Space Science, July 15, 2020
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EA001281
New Report: Official US Climate Data Reveals No Cause For Alarm
Press Release, GWPF, Sep 18, 2020
Link to report: The US Climate in 2019
By Paul Homewood, GWPF, 2020
QLD Sen. Malcolm Roberts re CSIRO lack of empirical evidence proving the case against CO2
From Jim Simson, The Australian Climate Sceptics Blog, Sep 17, 2020
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com/2020/09/qld-sen-malcolm-roberts-re-csiro-lack.html
The “Escalator to Extinction” Myth
By Jim Steele, Landscapes and Cycles, Sep 15, 2020
http://landscapesandcycles.net/escalator-to-extinction-myth.html
Climate Change Apocalypse: “Permanently Immunized From Falsification”
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Sep 17, 2020
Satellite Observations Reveal Decreasing Trend in Global Wildfires
By Staff, GWPF, Sep 16, 2020
Link to one paper: Global trends in wildfire and its impacts: perceptions versus realities in a changing world
By Stefan H. Doerr and Cristina Santín, Philosophical Transactions B, The Royal Society, June 5, 2016
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4874420/
Link to second paper: A human-driven decline in global burned area
By N. Andela, et al. Science, June 30, 2017
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/356/6345/1356/
California Has Always Had Fires, Environmental Alarmism Makes Them Worse Than Necessary
By Michael Shellenberger, Forbes, Sep 10, 2020
“‘California was a very smoky place historically,’ says Malcolm North of the US Forest Survey. “Even though we’re seeing area burned that is off-the-charts, it’s still probably less than what used to be burned before Europeans arrived.’”
Gavin Newsom’s Exceedingly Ignorant Climate Claim
By Jim Steele, Landscapes and Cycles, Sep 14, 2020
http://landscapesandcycles.net/gavin-newsom-s-exceedingly-ignorant-climate-claim.html
Defending the Orthodoxy
US Third National Climate Assessment: Climate Change Impacts in the United States
U.S. Global Change Research Program, Spring 2014
Thirteen Agencies, One Vision: Empower the Nation with Global Change Science
https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/
A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years
By Shaun Marcott, et al. Science, Mar 8, 2013
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/339/6124/1198
28 million Americans could experience megafires by 2070: analysis
By Celine Castronuovo, The Hill, Sep 15, 2020
Link to analysis: How Climate Migration Will Reshape America
Millions will be displaced. Where Will they go?
By Abrahm Lustgarten, New York Times Magazine, Sep 15, 2020
“According to the Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, approximately 1 in 12 Americans in the Southern half of the country will move toward California, the Mountain West or the Northwest over the next 45 years because of climate factors.”
[SEPP Comment: The article states that analysis claims: “approximately 28 million people across the country could face Manhattan-size megafires by 2070, with Northern California residents experiencing them annually.” So, people will move into the megafires?]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
But if so…
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 16, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Assuming the fictitious goal can be reached, what is an ideal equilibrium climate?]
‘The Value of Books’ (David Boaz, Alex Epstein on Oil, Gas, and Government: The U.S. Experience)
By Roger Donway, Master Resource, Sep 16, 2020
After Paris!
Europe urges China to match its climate ambitions
By Frédéric Simon, EURACTIV.com, Sep 14, 2020 [H/t GWPF]
“The European Union will press China to aim for climate neutrality by 2060 or eventually face punitive carbon tariffs during a summit on Monday (14 September) aimed at concluding a bilateral trade agreement by the end of the year.”
[SEPP Comment: The date for China is slipping while the date for the EU is advancing.]
Vietnam brings cement sector into new climate submission to the UN
The southeast Asian nation has made slight improvements to its 2030 climate plan but still expects emissions to increase rapidly over the next decade
By Chloé Farand, Climate Home News, Sep 14, 2020 [H/t Dennis Ambler]
“UN Climate Change head Patricia Espinosa told Climate Home News this month she expected only 80 out of the 197 signatories to the Paris Agreement to submit updated plans by the UN deadline on 31 December 2020. China – the world’s largest emitter – was not among them.”
[SEPP Comment: Keep the paper cuts going!]
Change in US Administrations – Appointment
Appointment of Climate Realist David Legates at NOAA Sparks Protest by Representatives Grijalva and Huffman
By Marlo Lewis, Jr. CEI, Sep 18, 2020
Real Climate Science From David Legates Seems To Scare the Media, Will It Scare NOAA?
By Jim Lakely, The Heartland Institute, Sepp 12, 2020
Congress Investigates the Appointment of Legates to NOAA
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Sep 16, 2020
Letter from the House Chair of the Committee on Natural Resources and Chair of Subcommittee on Water, Oceans, and Wildlife, to Acting Under Secretary of Commerce for NOAA, Sep 15, 2020
Longtime Climate Science Denier Hired At NOAA
By Rebecca Hersher, NPR, Sep 12, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.npr.org/2020/09/12/912301325/longtime-climate-science-denier-hired-at-noaa
Professor who has questioned climate science hired at NOAA
By J. Edward Moreno, The Hill, Sep 12, 2020
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Claim: Europeans Don’t Care Enough about Climate Change to Act
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 14, 2020
Commission under fire for including ‘carbon sinks’ into EU climate goals
By Frédéric Simon, EURACTIV.com, Sep 18, 2020 [H/t GWPF]
Seeking a Common Ground
FIRE
Subtitle: our failure to live in harmony with nature.
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Sep 15, 2020
The Extraordinary Longevity of Wildfire Smoke
By Cliff Mass Weather Blog, Sep 17, 2020
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/09/the-extraordinary-longevity-of-wildfire.html
Of Galileo and Canute
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 16, 2020
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2020/09/16/of-galileo-and-canute/
“So beware lest you think you’re Galileo and you’re really the cardinals. Or that you’re proceeding without a proper factual basis. Or both.”
Science, Policy, and Evidence
Is the Official Covid-19 Death Toll Accurate?
By James Agresti, WUWT, Sep 17, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Presents interesting graph: “Years of Life Lost Over the Lifetimes of All Americans Who Were Alive at the Onset of 2020 comparing Covid-19; Influenza; Suicides; and Accidents.”]
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
The Greening of the Pechora River Catchment, Russian European Arctic
Chetan, M.-A., Dornik, A., Ardelean, F., Georgievski, G., Hagemann, S., Romanovsky, V.E., Onaca, A. and Drozdov, D.S. 2020. 35 years of vegetation and lake dynamics in the Pechora Catchment, Russian European Arctic. Remote Sensing 12: 1863, doi:10.3390/rs12111863. Sep 18, 2020
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/sep/a8.php
“In light of the above, it would appear that the alarmist hypothesis of Arctic ecosystem collapse, from carbon sinks to carbon sources (i.e., satellite browning), in consequence of rising temperature and atmospheric CO2 is falsified for the Pechora River Catchment, as it is with most everywhere else on the planet (again, see the many reviews posted on this topic in our Subject Index under the subheadings of Biospheric Productivity found on this page). In contrast, rising temperature and atmospheric CO2 are stimulating biospheric productivity to levels not seen for possibly millions of years.”
Urbanization Effects in North China Land Surface Temperatures
Bian, T., Ren, G., Yue, Y. 2017. Effect of urbanization on land-surface temperature at an urban climate station in north China. Boundary-Layer Meteorology 165: 553-567. Sep 16, 2020
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/sep/a7.php
“The authors conclude their work by stating the significant urbanization effects in the LST [Land-Surface temperature] time series ‘indicate a large relative surface warming in urban areas compared with rural areas,’ presenting a ‘problem of data representativeness’ in urban stations for ‘monitoring and studying large-scale climate change.’ And until such problems are effectively addressed and accounted for, the true impact of rising atmospheric CO2 on global climate may well be vastly overstated given that up to 100% of mean annual LST in this study was determined in this study to be the result of urbanization, leaving no room for rising CO2.
Combined Effects of CO2 and Water Stress on Cucumber Seedlings
Li, Y., Li, S., He, X., Jiang, W., Zhang, D. and Liu, B. 2020. CO2 enrichment enhanced drought resistance by regulating growth, hydraulic conductivity and phytohormone contents in the root of cucumber seedlings. Plant Physiology and Biochemistry 152: 62-71. Sep 14, 2020
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/sep/a6.php
“Lastly, Li et al. found that phytohormones were differentially expressed under elevated CO2, resulting in an overall improvement of hydraulic conductivity and enhanced water absorption transport capability of the cucumber seedlings under water stress. In summation, therefore, the researchers conclude ‘CO2 enrichment improved drought tolerance and promoted the growth of cucumber seedling roots.’”
A spatially explicit surface urban heat island database for the United States: Characterization, uncertainties, and possible applications
By T.Chakraborty, et al. ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, October 2020 [H/t Climate Etc.]
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0924271620302082?dgcid=raven_sd_search_email
“We find the highest daytime SUHI intensities during summer (1.91 ± 0.97 °C) for 418 of the 497 urbanized areas, while the winter daytime SUHI intensity (0.87 ± 0.45 °C) is the lowest in 439 cases.”
[SEPP Comment: Nighttime effects are also important, less cooling.]
Northern Hemisphere sees its hottest summer on record
By Rebecca Klar, The Hill, Sep 14, 2020
Link to claim: Northern Hemisphere just had its hottest summer on record
August 2020 ended as 2nd hottest for the globe
By Staff, NOAA, Sep 14, 2020
https://www.noaa.gov/news/northern-hemisphere-just-had-its-hottest-summer-on-record
Link to subordinate report: Assessing the Global Climate in August 2020
By Staff, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Sep 14, 2020
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/Global202008
“The August 2020 globally averaged temperature departure from average over land and ocean surfaces was the second highest for the month of August in the 141-year NOAA global temperature dataset record, which dates back to 1880.”
[SEPP Comment: Doubt NOAA had rigorous coverage of the entire globe since 1880.]
Changing Weather
Atlantic Hurricane Season Update
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 18, 2020
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/09/18/atlantic-hurricane-season-update/
133 Degrees In Los Angeles County In 1859
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Sep 14, 2020
https://realclimatescience.com/2020/09/133-degrees-in-los-angeles-county-in-1859/
Changing Climate
New Study Finds Weak CO2-Induced Warming An ‘Implausible’ Explanation For The End-Triassic Mass Extinction
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Sep 14, 2020
Link to paper: The role of temperature in the initiation of the end-Triassic mass extinction
By Victoria Petryshyn, et al. Earth-Science Reviews, Sep 2020
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0012825220303123
Lowering Standards
Scientific American Goes Full Anti-Science
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Sep 12, 2020
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2020-9-11-scientific-american-goes-anti-science
“If you look at that 2017 Scientific American piece, or the other articles that I cited in my post, you will see that those commenters are conceiving of ‘science’ not as a special methodology, but rather as something more like: ‘science is what people who call themselves scientists do.’ The basic complaint of the commenters was that Trump was ‘anti-science’ because he was listening to or appointing people who disagreed with — or worse, sought to de-fund — functionaries in the government who called themselves scientists.”
[SEPP Comment: Demanding more evidence beyond the crowing of the rooster raises the sun.]
Scientific American Endorses Joe Biden
We’ve never backed a presidential candidate in our 175-year history—until now
By The Editors, Scientific American, October 2020 [H/t William Readdy]
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/scientific-american-endorses-joe-biden/
[SEPP Comment: Given its attacks on Bjorn Lomborg, this is not surprising.]
New York Times debunks climate-caused California wildfires
California can either manage its forests better or watch them burn for another 200 years — according to the New York Times.
By Steve Milloy Junk Science.com, Sep 10, 2020
https://junkscience.com/2020/09/new-york-times-debunks-climate-caused-california-wildfires/
Using a 1994 article in the NYT
Dunce’s Cap For Peter Stott
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 14, 2020
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/09/14/dunces-cap-for-peter-stott/
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Intensifying natural disasters do little to move needle on climate efforts
By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, Sep 18, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Particularly since natural disasters have not intensified.]
Hurricane Sally
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 17, 2020
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/09/17/hurricane-sally/
[SEPP Comment: Noisy nonsense v. hard data?]
‘Potentially historic’ flooding predicted from Hurricane Sally
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Sep 15, 2020
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Attenborough’s new attempt to scare people about polar bear extinction and walrus deaths
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Sep 13, 2020
Unprecedented unprecedentedness
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 16, 2020
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2020/09/16/unprecedented-unprecedentedness/
“Oh, one more thing. Wildfires in Western Canada a few years back were widely blamed on climate change. But apparently this year ‘it has been a quieter-than-usual wildfire season in western Canada that can be attributed to the mixed blessings of rainy weather and isolating effects of the COVID-19 pandemic’. Got that? Global warming hammered Alberta in 2016 while sparing California which is on another globe. Then it pummeled the Amazon and Australia in 2019. Then in 2020 it walloped California and Oregon but gave BC a pass. See, if it’s bad it’s climate and if it’s good it’s just weather.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Research reveals “climate-change complacency” across Europe
News Release, University of Warwick, UK, Sep 14, 2020
https://warwick.ac.uk/newsandevents/pressreleases/research_reveals_climate-change
Link to discussion paper: Do Europeans Care about Climate Change? An Illustration of the Importance of Data on Human Feelings
By Adam Nowakowski & Andrew J. Oswald, IZA Institute of Labor Economics, Sep 2020
http://www.andrewoswald.com/docs/IZApaperNowakowsk-Oswald-dp13660.pdf
“An analogy with successful anti-tobacco policy is discussed.”
[SEPP Comment: Comprehensive statistical work on cigarette smoking and lung cancer was solid, direct, and showed significant results that could not be refuted. The assertion that increasing CO2 is causing a dangerous increase in greenhouse effect is vague, uses wrong data (surface) and is refuted by the correct data, (atmospheric). Is the public beginning to recognize the difference?]
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Speaker Hoyle Wants Lockdowns For Climate Change
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 13, 2020
“The type of restrictions on daily life introduced to fight coronavirus could command public support if brought in to tackle the threat of climate change, the Speak [er]of the House of Commons has suggested.”
UN report: Countries have failed to meet a single target to protect wildlife in the last decade
By Tal Axelrod, The Hill, Sep 15, 2020
Link to report: Global Biodiversity Outlook 5
By Staff, Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2020
https://www.cbd.int/gbo/gbo5/publication/gbo-5-en.pdf
Questioning European Green
Climate Assembly Parrots Green Party Demands
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 13, 2020
“So, with the economy crashing all around us, these bright sparks suggest we deliberately let viable industries go bust?”
The UK’s “End of Coal” lasted a whole week
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 18, 2020
http://joannenova.com.au/2020/09/the-uks-end-of-coal-lasted-a-whole-week/
[SEPP Comment: Imagine what will happen when the public is told it can no longer use gas for heat.]
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Click your heels and say “Net zero” three times
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 16, 2020
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2020/09/16/click-your-heels-and-say-net-zero-three-times/
“Why then the thundering about huge undertakings? Easy (like everything else in their world): that way you get to be heroic without any blood, toil, tears or sweat. Though ironically it is very hard to have sensible discussions with people who don’t believe life is hard.”
Not So Green
By Viv Forbes, Saltbushclub, Sep 14, 2020
https://saltbushclub.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/not-so-green.pdf
Non-Green Jobs
Biden’s energy plan could wipe out 5M blue-collar jobs
Former VP can’t get story straight on green energy promises
By Stephen Moore, Fox Business, Sep 15, 2020
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/biden-energy-plan-5-million-blue-collar-jobs
The Political Games Continue
Selecting Biden-Harris Could Be Disastrous for the US
By Alan Carlin, Carlin Economics and Science, Sep 8, 2020
http://www.carlineconomics.com/archives/5226
The Planet’s Not Angry, But Stockman Warns The Pelosi/Newsom/Harris Climate-Howlers Are Truly Dangerous
By David Stockman, via Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge, Sep 17, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
“In fact, researchers have found that before Europeans arrived, fires burned up woody biomass in California’s forests every 10 to 20 years, preventing the accumulation of (wood) fuel, and burned out the shrub-lands every 50 to 120 years.”
Litigation Issues
CHASER: No “Swamp” to See Here — EPA Quietly Hires ‘Climate RICO’ Ringleader as “Career” Enforcer
By Chris Horner, Government Accountability and Oversight, Sep 14, 2020 [H/t WUWT]
Charleston sues ‘Big Oil’ for flooding in SC Lowcountry caused by global warming
By Mikaela Porter, The Post and Courier, Sep 17, 2020
“The city has hired Sher Edling, a prominent environmental law firm based in San Francisco, as co-counsel. Sher Edling also represents the cities of San Francisco, Oakland, Baltimore and New York. On the East coast, Rhode Island, Minnesota and Massachusetts have filed similar lawsuits.”
[SEPP Comment: The Low Country was high and dry? That is why farming was largely rice plantations during colonial times?]
Echoes of NY’s Failure: Connecticut Files Climate Lawsuit
By William Allison, Energy in Depth, Sep 14, 2020
https://eidclimate.org/echoes-of-new-yorks-failure-connecticut-files-climate-lawsuit/
[SEPP Comment: More of Exxon Knew – What?]
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Republican Led Government Commission Recommends a Carbon Tax
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 16, 2020
See link immediately below
There they go again
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 16, 2020
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2020/09/16/there-they-go-again/
[SEPP Comment: A panel of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission concluded that sophisticated speculators cannot evaluate risk? But it can?]
Wildfires offsetting California’s expensive cap-and-trade emissions cuts
By Steve Milloy, Junk Science.com, Sep 16, 2020
Energy Issues – Non-US
Schizophrenic German Wind Power Output In August, Plagued By Wild Volatility
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 12, 2020
German Electricity Imports Hit New Record, Rise 43.3 Percent in First Half Of 2020!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 16, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Yet it is a net exporter. The problem is that when the system produces too much, it must pay its customers to take it.]
New Plans To Switch Your Power Off
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 17, 2020
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/09/17/new-plans-to-switch-your-power-off/
“This revelation will be covered up and discredited. But we will discover, in due course and when it will be too late to do anything about it, that it is exactly what will happen.”
[SEPP Comment: We all can be third world underdeveloped countries now!]
Energy Issues – Australia
Winning: Labor party drops 2030 renewable target, Libs build gas plant, (still scared of climate bullies)
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 15, 2020
Energy Issues — US
Pipeline Cancellations Harm Americans
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Sep 15, 2020
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
The natural gas well that changed everything
By Daniel Yergin, Marketplace, Sep 15, 2020
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Britain’s Nuclear Future In Limbo as Investors Walk Away
By Staff, Bloomberg, Via GWPF, Sep 17, 2020
Putin supports renewables
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 16, 2020
“At least he does when other countries go all in on them and end up dependent on Russian natural gas as a consequence.”
Nuclear Power And Hydrogen Four Times Cheaper Than Renewables, New Report Claims
By Staff, The Sunday Times, Via GWPF, Sep 13, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Using nuclear power to create hydrogen.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Clean Energy Facts
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Sep 18, 2020
https://ddears.com/2020/09/18/clean-energy-facts/
[SEPP Comment: Is the next step to ban mining?]
New Study Shows German Offshore Wind Turbines May Cannibalize Each Other When Improperly Sited
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 15, 2020
Link to study: Making the Most of Offshore Wind
Re-Evaluating the Potential of Offshore Wind in the German North Sea
Authors from the Technical University of Denmark and Max Planck Institute, 2020
LEEDCo on the Brink (freshwater wind’s eco-nightmare)
By Sherri Lange, Master Resource, Sep 14, 2020
https://www.masterresource.org/leedco-icebreaker/leedco-brink/
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
Snowy 2.0, twice the cost, half the value, wastes a quarter of the energy, and wrecks the environment
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 18, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Pumped hydro-storage works when it is replenished by reliable power plants, not when replenished by unreliable power.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Tesla Plans to Start Shipping Out Cars Made at Shanghai Gigafactory
By Staff Bloomberg News, Sep 11, 2020
Environmental Industry
Cheney asks DOJ to probe environmental groups
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Sep 17, 2020
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/516973-cheney-asks-doj-to-probe-environmental-groups
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Pelosi on wildfires in California and West: ‘Mother Earth is angry’
“The climate crisis is real and has an impact,” the San Francisco Democrat says
By Dom Caliccio, Fox News, Sep 11, 2020
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pelosi-on-wildfires-in-california-and-west-mother-earth-is-angry
A Message from Mother Earth to Nancy Pelosi
By Clarice Feldman, American Thinker, Sep 13, 2020
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/09/a_message_from_mother_earth_to_nancy_pelosi.html
See link immediately above.
Tim Flannery: “If there was a moment of true emergency in the fight to preserve our climate, it is now”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 16, 2020
ARTICLES
A California Town’s Fire-Protection Plans Hit Red Tape, Then it Burned to the Ground
The North Complex fire decimated Berry Creek just as work was to start on forest-thinning projects
By Jim Carlton, WSJ, Sep 17, 2020
The article starts:
“BERRY CREEK, Calif.—As the smoke from the nearby fire-devastated town of Paradise cleared in 2018, local officials were trying to gain approval of forest-thinning projects to help this mountain community avoid a similar fate.
“Nearly two years after they first applied for approval from the state of California, the contract for one of the projects went out for bidding on Sept. 4. At the same time, work was about to start on the other after a months long wait caused in part by the coronavirus pandemic.
“Then just four days later, the North Complex fire roared through this community of 2,500, wiping out most of the homes and leaving at least 10 people dead, more than one-third of the total fatalities from wildfires this year in California.
“‘I tried to work with anyone who would listen to avoid what happened,’ Denise Bethune, a Berry Creek fire safety coordinator, said from her son’s residence in the nearby city of Chico, where she and her husband have been living since their two-bedroom home burned to the ground.
“Among the factors contributing to this year’s exceptional wildfire season are climate change, which causes higher temperatures and longer droughts, and poor forest management, according to scientific experts. State and local governments haven’t done enough to thin dry brush and dead trees that burn easily around populated areas, they say.
“Few places have felt the consequences more severely than Butte County, a rural area north of Sacramento where 19 large fires have scorched some 400,000 acres since 1999.
“Earlier this week, Loren Gill drove into what remains of Berry Creek in an SUV to pick through some of the rubble of what had been a park community center. Nearby lay the ruins of Berry Creek Elementary, with a sign of its mascot, a Native American brave, charred.
“‘This is unbelievable,’ Mr. Gill, 78 years old, said as he drove past dozens of leveled homes, some with only the chimneys still intact. ‘Just a nightmare.’
“The Butte County Fire Safe Council on Oct. 26, 2018, received an $836,365 grant from the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, or Cal Fire, to remove trees and brush from 234 acres. The plan was to create fire breaks along two of the main evacuation roads and for a development of homes around Lake Madrone.
“Getting approval to spend the money would take almost two years.”
After discussing who was to blame for the delay, and speculation to the extent in which the fire would have been contained, the articles concludes:
“It took 17 months to get the final go ahead from Cal Fire in March. Then a new problem hit: the coronavirus pandemic, which Ms. Bethune said put some of that work on hold.
“After approval for the plan to create fire breaks along the evacuation roads came in July, Ms. DeAnda said her group had hoped to start both projects this fall and complete them within a month.
“‘We were just waiting on the contractor to get started,’ she said.
“The fire has effectively negated the need for that fuel work, now. The forest of pine and oaks surrounding the town was burned so severely that in some places only skeleton trees are left, devoid of leaves.
“Volunteer Fire Chief Reed Rankin, who lost his own home, said all he and other first responders could do was evacuate people ahead of a firestorm driven by 40 miles-per-hour winds.
“‘We’ve got to rethink how we are going to manage the forests,’ said Mr. Rankin, after sifting through the rubble of a destroyed fire station. ‘I’m still at a loss, still numb.’”
https://www.businessgreen.com/news/4020416/race-zero-global-net-zero-commitments-double
‘According to a new report that is set to be launched today by Data-Driven EnviroLab and the NewClimate Institute, there has been a three-fold increase in the number of businesses that have set net zero goals, rising from 500 at the end of 2019 to 1,541 currently.
Similarly, the number of regional governments with net zero goals has climbed from 11 to 101 so far in 2020, the number of city-wide net zero commitments has risen eight-fold from 100 to 823.
With a growing number of countries also setting net zero goals, the latest signatories to the Race to Zero programme mean that a sizeable chunk of global GDP is covered by sweeping decarbonisation goals in line with the targets set out in the Paris Agreement.’
Virtue signaling is gaining strength.
If you believe that any of those companies will actually do anything beyond making commercials, you are as dumb as you pretend to be.
I can read their annual reports on the progress they’ve made. I expect you think they make it all up?
Random example:
https://www.diageo.com/en/in-society/our-role-in-society/2020-sustainability-and-responsibility-targets/
Also:
‘The world’s largest retailer has today committed to reaching net zero carbon emissions across its operations by 2040, without relying on carbon offsets.
Walmart, the only company in the world that surpasses Amazon in retail revenue, said that vehicle and heat electrification, renewable energy, and low-impact refrigerants would allow it to reach its new goal as it worked to become a “regenerative company”.’
“world’s largest retailer has today committed to reaching net zero carbon emissions across its operations by 2040”
Twenty years from now. No guarantees that company policies won’t change in the meantime. Style over substance.
griff,
“vehicle and heat electrification, renewable energy, and low-impact refrigerants would allow it to reach its new goal”
1. vehicle and heat electrification will *not* lower their emissions as long as it is produced by fossil fuel plants.
2. It is not renewable energy, it is UNRELIABLE energy. When the grids feeding their property go down because of UNRELIABLE energy, their profits will take a hit. A few of those and the shareholders are going to wake uo.
3. Low-impact refrigerants won’t change much when the compressors still run on electricity.
Moving to UNRELIEABLE generation is going to prove to be a living nightmare. Just how long will it take for people to wake up to this? California always says it leads the way – it now seems to be leading the way in recognizing the problems with UNRELIABLE generation.
Griff,
my goal or target is to become a millionaire ’till 2025 latest.
How realistic will that be, or is it already fact ?
What are you smoking, Griif ? May a have a piece ? 😀
Any of these companies Chinese?
Thought not…
Get woke go broke.
Regarding climate models- do the “scientists” who build them ever show the models as flow diagrams as we all learned to draw in programming courses? If we can see those- we can see the logic or lack of logic of the model. Just being told that a certain model predicts something is worthless. If we could see the flow diagrams we could compare all the models based on their logic and we could hunt for and find faults in the logic. Anyone publishing a paper about their model should be required to provide the flow diagram.
They won’t do this. My guess is that the models are such a conglomeration of spaghetti code that there is not way to generate a flow diagram. I would love to see how they integrate CO2 being a positive feedback loop into a flow diagram. At 70 years old I probably won’t live long enough for that to happen.
Thanks for the great Frederick Seitz quote.
I found it telling that someone, with no background in the climate related sciences or engineering, writes to defend and promote alarmist scientists like Michael Mann and James Hansen but demeans others like the physicist, Frederick Seitz. Has he ever grappled with what Seitz actually wrote? Has he made an effort to understand Seitz’ reasoning and look at the empirical support for his case?
This “Research Associate in Social Movements” writes of himself:
I am working at Keele University, and affiliated to the Centre for the Understanding of Sustainable Prosperity. My work involves teaching on a history of protest course, researching activist biographies (interviewing long-term activists) and other tasks too numerous and bizarre to mention. Also, writing up articles for publication.
This is what we face in the climate discussion:
the dumbing down of university students,
utterly worthless degrees
and newspapers that print their hogwash. 🙁
ugh 21 deg F this morning. guess summer is gone.
3 days in a row of frost garden done for good.
Am I the only one who missed Robert F. Kennedy jr.’s speech during the August 28 demonstration in Berlin?
I noticed, in an email from John Droz today, a video I find important.
The video is discretely titled “Robert F Kennedy Jr in Berlin 28 August 2020“.
To me and half a million other viewers it was 18 minutes that made a deep impression.
Hopefully others, who might have missed the speech, will worship this video from the nephew of the former president JFK, who died 1963. Robert F Kennedy Jr. has the courage to fight for democracy and freedom, despite what has happened to so many members of his family.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/16/birds-falling-out-of-the-sky-in-mass-die-off-in-south-western-us-aoe
Birds killed by climate crisis…
I believe you intended to write “Birds killed by Climate Policy”
My ISP has blocked ⛔ access to The Guardian.
Since the wildfires are not due to climate change the bird deaths can’t be either!
proof ?
facts ?
The climate crisis was ???
Griff, tell us….. to warm or what ? Or Wildfires ?
No, my friend, it was to cold, much to cold.
“Tweet Tweet” — Social Media was Wrong about the Hundreds of Thousands of Dead Birds in NM: Science says it was the RECORD COLD what did it
It would be great if there was a link to the Happer / Wijngaarten paper.