Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Researchers are consistently claiming Summer humidity impedes the transmission of Covid-19. But some humid tropical countries like Singapore have as much difficulty controlling the spread of Covid as the rest of us.
Could high humidity slow the spread of COVID-19?
Emergency room physician Jeff Gusky spreads the message that high humidity could slow the spread of the novel coronavirus.
In the small sanctuary of Starlight Bethel Missionary Church in South Dallas, emergency room physician Jeff Gusky stands before a handful of listeners.
“It’s the humidity, stupid!” Dr. Gusky says.
…
“It’s accepted that many viruses spread during the winter when the air is dry. COVID-19 is a virus,” Gusky tells his audience.
Data linking the spread of the flu to dry indoor air has been around for years, including in the decade-old study, “Absolute Humidity and the Seasonal Outbreak of Influenza in the Continental United States” by Dr. Jeffrey Shaman.
…
In June, a group in Australia published a study linking dry air to the spread of the coronavirus there. The study compared 749 cases of COVID-19 to relative humidity. It found that with every 1% decrease in humidity, coronavirus cases increased 6%.
…
Read more: https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/could-high-humidity-slow-spread-coronavirus/287-6aa63537-1ed7-47ef-baa4-64716d29c730
The abstract of the Australian study;
The role of climate during the COVID‐19 epidemic in New South Wales, Australia
Michael P. Ward Shuang Xiao Zhijie Zhang
First published: 21 May 2020Previous research has identified a relationship between climate and occurrence of SARS‐CoV and MERS‐CoV cases, information that can be used to reduce the risk of infection. Using COVID‐19 notification and postcode data from New South Wales, Australia during the exponential phase of the epidemic in 2020, we used time series analysis to investigate the relationship between 749 cases of locally acquired COVID‐19 and daily rainfall, 9 a.m. and 3 p.m. temperature, and 9 a.m. and 3 p.m. relative humidity. Lower 9 a.m. relative humidity (but not rainfall or temperature) was associated with increased case occurrence; a reduction in relative humidity of 1% was predicted to be associated with an increase of COVID‐19 cases by 6.11%. During periods of low relative humidity, the public health system should anticipate an increased number of COVID‐19 cases.
Read more: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/tbed.13631
The tropical city state Singapore has had a difficult time controlling the spread of Covid-19, though they have a surprisingly low death rate according to official figures – only 26 deaths to date. According to Straits Times, Singapore uses Remdesivir to treat Covid patients.
Singapore population 5,851,851, infections 45,783, deaths 26 is an infection rate of 7823 / million, deaths 26.
New York, population 8,175,133, infections 405,827, infection rate 21,940 / million, deaths 32,393.
Singapore’s difficulties with Covid could be due to factors which interfere with realisation of the potential benefits of Singapore’s tropical humidity. Singaporeans spend a lot of time indoors in air conditioned comfort, they take their air conditioning very seriously.
Lee Kuan Yew, founder of modern Singapore, once said:
Question: Anything else besides multicultural tolerance that enabled Singapore’s success?
Answer: Air conditioning. Air conditioning was a most important invention for us, perhaps one of the signal inventions of history. It changed the nature of civilization by making development possible in the tropics.
Without air conditioning you can work only in the cool early-morning hours or at dusk. The first thing I did upon becoming prime minister was to install air conditioners in buildings where the civil service worked. This was key to public efficiency.
Read more: https://www.vox.com/2015/3/23/8278085/singapore-lee-kuan-yew-air-conditioning
I am not disputing claims that humidity impedes the spread of Covid-19, but clearly there are other important factors.
I got it in January when visiting Thailand and Cambodia when the dewpoint was regularly in the 70sF and daytime highs in the lower 90sF. The public health department in my town in southeast Missouri just issued a mandatory mask wear order for the first time and about two weeks after the dewpoint and temperature began their normal rise to nearly match those where I was infected.
Such weather both here and there also coincided with nearly still air.
“Researchers are consistently claiming Summer humidity impedes the transmission of Covid-19”
Really? You quote an emergency room physician and a Sydney vet. I don’t think researchers consistently claim that. President Trump once did.
Gee Nick, I provided the abstract of a joint study between University of Sydney and Shanghai Fudan University which claimed a 6.11% inverse correlation between humidity and transmission. Similar studies link dry air to increased influenza transmission (link in the first quote).
Sigh. I just had to revise the SS Scale yet again… I keep thinking that the peg on the high side is far enough over, and then the needle wraps around.
You didn’t expect Nick to actually read the story, did you?
I don’t think heat and humidity play much role in stopping these viruses. I think it’s vitamin D levels. SARS2 data is showing that, as case numbers skyrocket the number of deaths continues to decrease. We have never had this much data for any other respiratory virus.
Vitamin D levels are a very accurate and sensitive indicator of how much time you spend out and about in the sun. Something that is often overlooked is that it therefore might just indicate how good you _really_ feel — that is, how healthy you actually are.
If, for example, someone has pre-diabetes, but has not yet had it checked out, or if someone has a low-grade cancer that has not yet been diagnosed, and so on for other types of undiagnosed unhealthiness, those people will be feeling less energetic than average, spend less time outdoors, and so in all probability their vitamin D levels will be lower.
All that is known now is that lower vitamin D levels are associated statistically with worse cases of corona virus, as of course are pre-existing forms of unhealthiness. Maybe vitamin D supplements help prevent or treat covid 19 — but maybe low levels of vitamin D just signal undiagnosed forms of pre-existing unhealthiness.
This same effect has led in the past to vitamin D pills being promoted as a wonderful preventive measure for all sorts of conditions — only to have later research show that vitamin D supplements did not reduce the occurence of what it was supposed to prevent.
The moral is: check your vitamin D level, and if it’s low, be sure to get a complete and detailed physical exam. Don’t just start taking vitamin D pills and think you’re covered.
There are many factors which relate to how much vitamin D your body will produce in response to skin exposure to the Sun.
If you have darker skin, you will produce less.
If you live where the Sun angle is lower, you make less of it.
If you wear more clothing, you have less skin exposed.
If you wear sunscreen, you make less of the vitamin.
And as we age, our skin has less and less ability to make vitamin D due to various factors.
So it is not a simple question of time spent outside.
“I don’t think heat and humidity play much role in stopping these viruses. I think it’s vitamin D levels.”
I think any focus on one aspect to the exclusion of other factors will never be able to get at the big picture.
There are numerous interlaced factors involved.
The general health of the individual.
Previous exposure to closely related strains of virus.
Immune system health as a general and overall measure of resistance to infections of any sort ( Vitamin and mineral deficiencies play a role, as do numerous other factors. Vitamin D is important, but hardly uniquely so).
Factors relating to infectious dose of the pathogen.
Comorbidities.
It is a complex set of factors which vary from one person to another in hard to predict ways, and which intertwine, reinforce, or additively subtract from a specific individuals ability to resist or overcome exposure.
Eric,
“Gee Nick, I provided the abstract of a joint study”
and then said “Researchers are consistently claiming Summer humidity impedes the transmission of Covid-19”. But they aren’t. For one thing, that study said the association was 6.11±3%. But correlation of what with what? It was of the number of cases with the RH at 9am on the date at which the Covid test was reported. Not the date of infection. RH at 3pm was not correlated.
But even so, they said
“Our study suggests that even with higher temperature, COVID‐19 could persist through the coming northern summer and ongoing surveillance and prevention will be needed. “
Here is a survey article from April 15th of scientists views, titled:
“Coronavirus may wane this summer, but don’t count on any seasonal variation to end the pandemic”
FLORIDA !!!
Henry if you contract Covid will you be taking HCQ with zinc?
What if your Dr prescribed that combo would you take it?
If not, what would you take?
No, no, and I might take remdesivir/dexamethasone
Henry won’t take HCQ because Trump did.
Remdesivir study had to be stopped because of liver damage (40%) and kidney failure (40%) in 80% of cohort. What else would you expect from an RNA chain terminator?
Case reports study of the first five patients COVID-19 treated with remdesivir in France
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220305282
Jeff Alberts HCQ has not been shown to be effective against COVID-19. Trump also suggested to inject disinfectant…..he’s an idiot.
Double blind beats any “observational” study of five patients.
..
icisil I suggest you keep your day time job, and don’t even think of a career in medicine.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31022-9/fulltext
icisil, you are citing a study of five patients. FIVE?……do you know how stupid a sample size of five (5) is?
Now Henry you have become a known liar like Ghalfunt…shame on you.
LOL @ Derg
“Trump also suggested to inject disinfectant…..he’s an idiot.”
That’s not true, Henry. You could prove me wrong by producing some evidence that Trump made that suggestion, but you won’t, because there is no evidence of such. Kind of like Human-caused climate change: Assertions are not evidence.
A word of advice, Henry: Don’t take anything the Leftwing Media says about Trump (or anything else) at face value.
Tom Abbott: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-suggests-injection-disinfectant-beat-coronavirus-clean-lungs-n1191216
I’ve seen the footage. President Trump did ask if injecting disinfectants would be a possibility. Though it was totally unclear if this was a serious question or not.
If it was a joke he should have clarified it. Not bc of the MSM but bc of the kind of people who do everything he says without having a second thought. That was not well played. Trolling the MSM doesn’t excuse everything.
Seems obvious the question was serious. No, the President of the United States did NOT ask anyone to inject bleach, you utter blathering, spittle-chinned, morons.
What he was asking the team, off the cuff and without thinking about the wording of the question is whether or not an intravenously delivered product could be developed to address C-19 infected cells. For goodness’ sake it’s not an unheard of practice commonly used to deal with other ailments:
https://www.cancer.org/treatment/treatments-and-side-effects/treatment-types/chemotherapy/getting-chemotherapy.html
But that interpretation could never be accepted by the willfully unobjective, TDS infected addlepate.
It shouldn’t also be needed to put “HOT” on a cup of coffee or warn people about drying their cat in the microwave in the manual. But here we are.
Disinfectants companies were worried for a reason. Sometimes the wording should better be precise or bad things happen by stupid people.
Don’t try to bring rationality into this. There was nothing rational about spittle-chinned ABC, NBC, CBS, PBS, CNN, etc., MSM and Henry Pool types purposely working those stupid people for no other reason than a “gotcha” for a politician they don’t like.
Using Stokes’ logic, if anyone was to blame for anyone injecting bleach into their veins, it was CNN:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/07/12/covid-19-the-winter-disease-which-hates-humid-summers/#comment-3033861
Henry, I warn you about the Leftwing Media and then you give me a quote from the Leftwing Media.
Henry, I listened to the news conference and Trump was recounting some of the ideas he had been discussing with the medical experts and was doing a little “brainstorming” in public, like he does behind the scenes, and never suggested that anyone go out and inject disinfectant. His statements were in the form of questions, not declarations.
Henry, you have an analytical mind when it comes to the Earth’s climate, but that doesn’t seem to apply to what comes out of the political Leftwing Media. Perhaps it is just a case of believing what you want to believe.
It should be easy to compare what Trump *actually said* to what the Leftwing Media says he said, but that apparently is not something you are interestedf in doing. That’s ok, I’m interested in doing that kind of thing
In case I didn’t make myself clear: You didn’t prove a damn thing with your link, Henry.
“Henry Pool July 12, 2020 at 7:32 pm – HCQ has not been shown to be effective against COVID-19.”
c19study.com
Notice that the studies showing “Negative” are “Late Stage” interventions. Your position is wrong.
“opps”
Florida hospital admits its COVID positivity rate is 10x lower than first reported
“Positivity rates have been skyrocketing at various Florida labs, raising concerns of misreporting.
In recent days, numerous facilities have begun reporting 100% positivity rates, figures significantly higher than the statewide average of around 15%. Many of those labs claim to have tested only one patient, though others with 100% rates report testing dozens and sometimes hundreds of patients.
Orlando news station Fox 35 said on Monday that it undertook an investigation of those ‘astronomical figures,’ after which several medical facilities confirmed that their actual positive rates were much lower than those reported to the state government.”
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/florida-lab-admits-its-covid-positivity-rate-was-inflated-90
Most of the speculation about seasonality seems to be a naive assumption that there will be the same seasonality as is seen with influenza, in an attempt to keep the fear factor going and boost speculation of a “second wave” as the epidemic dies out in Europe.
Why are they saying “was predicted” ? By whom , when? Is this a correlation they are reporting or is someone making predictions? It seems scientists do not even understand the difference between data and predictions any more. The two are synonymous.
If your study finds a correlation to RH at 9am and no correlation at 3pm you probably should be trying hard to find a confounding variable. Not publishing spurious , speculative “predictions”.
If my doctor prescribed HCQ…I would get a different doctor.
Anyone who blindly assigns responsibility to their health and their life to anyone else deserves what they get: A crapshoot chance at health and longevity.
Nick I’m worried about a winter resurgence, just as you are. I have the example of Singapore to demonstrate there are other factors. I never suggested humidity is a cure all.
There were early studies which looked at H, RH and temp. The response of sars-cov-2 was totally different to influenza virus, yet they persist in promoting this baseless, speculative link to RH because they can say that is why COVID is dying out in Europe then pump up the fear with a “second wave ” hitting us at the same time as coming flu season.
BTW flu will be very weak this year: most of the population which usually makes up most of the death count have been wiped out.
Project Fear is still in play to justify massive surveillance of the population in establishment of draconian anti constitutional laws confining the population. Little of this is about science or medicine.
” they persist in promoting this baseless, speculative link to RH”
Who, exactly, is promoting this link? Apart from the Sydney vet?
well the syd mob etc are up the shitter
cos Vic humidity has been from the high 60s to 99% the other day and our covid cases are rising daily.
people wearing masks but NOT gloves handling stuff , lifts buttones star rails etc in the hirise flats in melb and surrounds likely sources
and NES immigrants
and of course the BLM 10k morons and the ext reb weekend after and then 14+days later…its off n running again.
govt keeps blaming the UNsecurity qtine mobs and they ARE to blame too
but I have to say the mass gatherings seem a far larger vector.
and theres a lot of sudanese etc in the worst areas and you can bet they DID attend the rallies theyre pictured in many news posts etc.
What need do we really have of further evidence? Trump once said it. Case closed, hypothesis refuted!
I suppose that there’s an outside chance that Nick is mistaken and Trump didn’t really say it. So there still could be a lingering doubt about it being proven false. Nick, can you give us a reference to prove that Trump advocated this idea? Otherwise the only evidence we have that it has been refuted is your hearsay evidence that Trump advocated it. Thanks much.
“Nick, can you give us a reference to prove that Trump advocated this idea?”
Yes. April 23
“President Donald Trump said Thursday evening that the spread of COVID-19 could be drastically slowed by the onset of warmer and more humid weather during a Coronavirus Task Force press briefing, citing data from the Department of Homeland Security.”
““Maybe this goes away with heat and light. It seems like that’s the case,” the president speculated. “I think a lot of people are going to go outside all of a sudden.” Trump cited the data as evidence that he was correct when he had previously suggested that warmer weather would stop the spread of the disease.”
What he is citing is in fact a claim by his political appointee, William Bryan. And he was there, and not so keen to back up that claim:
“Bryan, however, was quick to say that these results were not proof that it is safe for Americans to go outdoors without practicing social distancing and other measures to protect themselves from the virus”
“So William Bryan said it first and Trump just repeated it.”
No, what Bryan said was:
“William Bryan, the science and technology adviser to the secretary of DHS, presented the results of a study that showed “increased temperature, humidity and sunlight are detrimental to COVID-19 in saliva droplets on surfaces and in the air,” with the longevity of the virus on nonporous surfaces falling drastically when temperatures of 95 degrees, 80% humidity and summer sunlight are applied.”
That doesn’t mean that (Trump):
“the spread of COVID-19 could be drastically slowed by the onset of warmer and more humid weather”
and Bryan made that clear on the spot.
You mean after Bryan was questioned about it?
“could be” “maybe”. that’s hardly a definitive claim.
“Maybe this goes away with heat and light. It seems like that’s the case,” the president speculated.”
The president “speculated”, Nick. There is a difference between “claiming” and “speculating”, Nick.
The president repeats what the experts are telling him and Trump’s enemies make it out like Trump is making claims that can’t be back up with facts. But Trump isn’t presenting facts, he is communicating speculation that he has discussed with the experts.
Trump speculates that high humidity “may” reduce the incidents of Wuhan virus infection and his enemies say he says high humidity “does” reduce the incidents.
Trump talks about disinfectants and his enemies claim Trump advocated injecting disinfectants and drinking bleach.
Keep up the good work, Nick. Henry.
Complete this well known phrase – you may use internet search:
If you put Lysol or Bleach you should perhaps apply to CNN as a reporter.
As Tom says the President has a 4 hour meeting with medical specialists brainstorming then has to have that precised down to a 30 minute briefing in colloquial words for the TV audience. This particular briefing was on the use of sunlight and UV in deactivating SARS-CoV-2 virus.
The outburst of undergrad mirth said a lot more about the people commenting than it did the President
However when you look at the recovery rates of places where HCQ is used regularly for malaria, you notice, well I noticed, a higher recovery rate across the board.
I have created a medical treatment form and will.
The attending doctors can treat, me with the HCQ cocktail, or the nebulized budesonide cocktail, or ether or watch me die. No intubation or ventilation is authorized.
Early on in this train wreck, circa April 1, the expectations, maybe just hope, among medical professionals at a prestigious clinic where my daughter works were that the novel virus would behave like other seasonal viruses and die out in the summer. That same clinic is currently, again, erecting over flow tents.
Where Clinic is that Keith?
What…grr
Major scientific studies of common flu bogged down on poor correlation of case drop off and Relative humidity (only 54%.) Then they threw in Absolute humidity and the correlation went up to 98%. No reason to think SARS-CoV-2 is much different.
HOWEVER:
The data seems to show that lockdowns, confining people to air conditioned boxes with recirculated air or partial openings, letting them go to air conditioned restaurants where you breath the aerosol from every infected throat in the place is deadly. In very warm or hot areas where the population can afford A/C, the spread is much worse than in areas where the average person has to use a whole house fan.
****************
On another tact, hydroxychloroquine+Zpak+zinc is getting rehabilitated as is Ivermectin, all which have been attacked by Rich Pharma and its minions like Fauci.
Someone asked me to justify the effect of Absolute Humidity on virus transmittal. I didn’t keep the original reference but here is a similar link. https://www.pnas.org/content/106/9/3243
The reason that Absolute Humidity is more significant that Relative humidity appears to be it’s effect on weight of the virus-bearing aerosol particle, which settles out of the Brownian Motion regime and reduces re-breathing.
Ivor Cummins, bio-engineer, has produced videos showing difference in viral infections depending northern and south tropical short version here (2 minutes):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ia8D7Gnq0TE
and the longer version here with various factors discussed (45 min)
https://thefatemperor.com/ep79-new-study-on-vitamin-d-uv-and-latitude-powerful-effects-on-viral-dangers/
Just for interest.
Strokes you consistently post so little of value that it is amazing.
Covid is too new to have definitive conclusions.
If the virus is spread by coughing or sneezing then anything that disrupts the “spray” could be beneficial, such as
– wearing a mask
– physical distance
– wind blowing in opposite direction
– high humidity — spray travels further in dry air
Outdoors should be safer than indoors.
In the colder months people in northern states will stay indoors more for comfort, while in the warmer months people in southern states will stay indoors more for A/C.
That could cause a seasonal pattern.
The virus appeared to spread “by plane” from China, suggesting that certain states would be less affected (such as West Virginia).
My simplistic question is why, if Covid-19 is impeded by warmth and humidity, does it flourish in the nasal passages where it is moist and 98.6 deg F?
It’s summer in Florida and high humidity but they have high transmission rate . In dry conditions fine aerosol droplets evaporate quickly. This would leave the virus without protection although easier penetrate masks. Lots of speculative science with COVID
Research on SARS showed that in humid conditions the virus couldn’t travel far through the air, and had more difficulty entering the body if it did. So while the science may be speculative, there are good reasons to believe it’s likely to be true.
And my experience of visiting Florida is that most people travel between air-conditioned buildings in air-conditioned cars. Which are neither hot, nor humid.
+97
Granted, I am not “most people”, but do live in northern Florida. I never use air conditioning in my truck when out and about, just any time during the year. Unless it is raining out, the first thing after the truck is started is the front windows come down and stay down. At home, spend most days outside enjoying the warmth. The heat pump for inside the house is set at 80° and mainly use it to keep the humidity below 70%.
guys….look at Miami and South Florida’s COVID numbers
temps running in the high 80’s low 90’s….humidity is about 65%
Data suggest Florida’s record-breaking coronavirus days may have been inflated by as much as 30%
“Florida health officials appear to have inflated recent record coronavirus case numbers there by as much as 30%, according to an analysis of data released by the state’s Department of Health.
U.S. health officials have been warning for several weeks that COVID-19 case trends in Florida are pointing to a possible looming catastrophe as the state records ever-increasing numbers of the disease. After several months of flat infection rates, positive case results in Florida began rising slowly in mid-June before beginning a steep climb near the end of the month.
Deaths in the state have remained largely flat over that time period, leaving experts struggling to explain why surging case rates have not resulted in an uptick in mortality. One possibility, according to data provided by the state itself, is that the new case numbers regularly posted by Florida health officials have been significantly inflated in recent weeks.”
Read more: https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/data-suggest-floridas-record-breaking-coronavirus-days-may-have-been-0
Its a recipe for double counting. Data is collected on a certain date, reported on a later date, amended in due course to line up with collection date, but the reported date data is left on record. Same thing happens in UK.
It was just reported that Florida had a record-setting 50,000 new Wuhan virus cases yesterday.
Keep in mind that new cases is not the same as new deaths.
But maybe it’s really only 15,000, or maybe it’s 5,000, or maybe it’s something else. How do we know?
“Florida health officials appear to have inflated recent record coronavirus case numbers there by as much as 30%, according to an analysis of data released by the state’s Department of Health.”
“But maybe it’s really only 15,000, or maybe it’s 5,000, or maybe it’s something else. How do we know?”
I misheard the number. It was 15,000 not 50,000. Sorry about that. It was early in the morning.
And get close to each other in air conditioned bars, where the air is dry and cool, like winter to some extent.
3 years in Austin Tx leaves me in no doubt that, apart from partying at the lakes, 90%+ time was spent in amazingly cold, dry, aircon. I would imagine the same is true for Fla – except trade lakes for the beach. So 👍👍👍 for MarkG’s comment.
And of course the ice-cold beers being brought out from the AC into the heat…
MarkG brings up an important point: an aerosol that is humidity-sensitive gains weight above certain ABSOLUTE humidities, and tends to move out of the Brownian Motion area and settle out of the air more quickly. Additionally (although the science is pitiful in this area) the crude filters in most HVAC systems are more likely to trap a moist, larger virus droplet.
Ventilation: Before A/C, many more wealthy Florida homes had fans in the ceilings of the foyer that pulled fresh air in windows from most areas of the house. I wonder if the effect of the Spanish flu could be sorted by wealth?
Hmm, maybe somebody should tell the virus that much of the South is 90F with 80% humidity today.
But most of the people in the South are sitting in low humidity, 65F air conditioned rooms talking with others. The design of the air conditioning is such that it is blown cold air mixing with ambient. This sets up a continual stream of virus particles/droplets from an infected person to anyone downstream of that infected person.
Indeed if you had wanted to create a system perfect for a high R0 infecting people with SARS-CoV-2 you would build a modern air conditioning system.
Would a UV light in the system kill the virus? On is the air not exposed long enough? Or maybe we shut off the hvac and open the windows.
Where I live if you open windows in Summer, you will have mildew in furniture and walls, and no one will get a good night’s sleep.
And plenty of good sleep is critical for a healthy immune system.
Businesses, offices, stores…these are the places people are transmitting the virus most effectively.
Large numbers of people in a limited amount of space, all coming and going.
When the dew point is above 65 F, people become increasingly uncomfortable.
Wear a mask and close fitting eyewear of some kind. Do not touch face when in public places.
Wash well when you get home.
We know how to avoid spreading diseases.
We just need to do it better.
Too many people are careless.
No single measure is perfect, nor are all of them together perfect, unless adhered to stringently.
If we refuse to wear masks because they are not perfect, we are letting the perfect be the enemy of the good.
Plenty of reasons exist to think we only need to keep the amounts of virus exposure low, if we become exposed at all.
If everyone is wearing masks, there is less virus shed into the air and into surfaces.
If we wear one too, and avoid hand to face transmission, we reduce the amount we might ingest if and when we do become exposed.
So if there is less virus in the air or on surfaces to begin with, and we are each minimizing exposure to whatever is in the air or on surfaces, we are giving ourselves less chance of ingesting a large infective dose.
But if we are sitting in a room or residing in a house or apartment with an infected person, what evidence is there that we can avoid being exposed by raising humidity? In that particular case, we are most likely going to invest virus shed by that person.
I would think some type of high volume air filter or an ion fountain has as much or more chance of helping.
But if someone is in a closed space for an extended period of time with someone shedding virus, I think that someone is gonna get infected too. Just a matter of time. But the same rules apply as they would if someone has a cold…do not sneeze or cough at people.
Wash hands often, and avoid touching face.
And if someone ain’t feeling well, let people know and stay away from other people.
Besides for all of that, some viruses are neutralized more quickly by moist environments, but some survive better in moist environments and are more readily neutralized by dry environments.
Some survive for long periods in cooler conditions, but some seem to not have this tendancy.
Most all viruses begin to lose infectivity outside of their hosts, and do so in a time dependant manner.
Unless there is a vaccine, everyone is likely to eventually become exposed to this thing.
It is not gonna go away.
Way back in February I posted a ton of info on research which has taken place over many decades into exactly how viruses and ailments like colds are spread.
As noted, many colds are corona viruses.
But the research showed mostly that virus transmission for such ailments is very hard to study and make form conclusions about.
Results were inconsistent and often contradictory, even in exhaustive and well controlled studies.
We know that with this virus, some people known to be infected did not make anyone else sick, even people with extended close cobtact, while others spread the virus to a huge number of people despite not seeming to be overtly sick at the time, and apparently did so in many cases with brief incidental contact.
Anyway, there is no chance, IMO, if getting people to make their living space dreadfully uncomfortable for some extended and indefinite period of time, even if there was strong reason to think it might help.
But consider…with open windows, some passerby could cough or sneeze into your home, while with the house sealed up tight, only someone inside who is sick is any reason for concern.
So after all that being researched and said, bottom line: We don’t know squat and the reaction to the virus has caused far more harm than good, maybe.
We know some things: No one would want to live in Florida with no AC in Summer.
Okay, maybe a few people.
It also seems apparent that attempts to predict this virus by comparisons to others has not worked.
And no one has given a convincing explanation for the super spreaders, vs the people who seemed to have not infected even people in close contact.
I swearthis is the FIRST headline I saw AFTER that last reply. UK SCIENTISTS: TURN OFF AIR CONDITIONING TO STOP CORONAVIRUS
They want you to turn off your A/C and wear a mask inside your home
Adan Salazar | Infowars.com – JULY 13, 2020
Or maybe the virus just can’t get a flight to the Southern Hemisphere for winter.
The study most are referring to was testing the stability of the virus on surfaces. No real evidence from spreading events in the world outside the lab was evaluated, no mentioning of aerosols.
In the study it was only speculated that the lab conditions with lower, NOT completely inactivating stability (T>38C and humidity>95%) could be a reason for lower incidence in Malaysia, Indonesia or Thailand. What is a very bold claim when the data in the paper showed nearly no effect to the stability at T=33C and humidity of 80-90% compared to 20C and 50% humidity.
>38C and >95% humidity is not a very widespread climate.
What if it is all false positives of hastily done and analyzed tests. BMJ Counts 95% accuracy as a reasonable average and that could explain all positive cases in most countries. Contamination e.g. from previous tests can only lead to false positives, and it seems reasonable that testing personnel make more errors when they are overworked. In good lab conditions there is up to 8% false positives in research. Anyway, we cannot know if the Pcr test is measuring anything relevant. None of the conditions for attributing causality to the Covid Rna séquence are fulfilled.
You can exclude false positives via good lab practise using different primer pairs. Easy.
Test animals get sick when exposed to the virus. RNA can be detected from these animals, virus can be isolated and infects cells in vitro and animals can infect other animals.
The virus has never been isolated. If you have contrary evidence, please provide it.
COVID19 PCR Tests are Scientifically Meaningless
https://off-guardian.org/2020/06/27/covid19-pcr-tests-are-scientifically-meaningless/
Again? You are boring:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/06/28/the-progress-of-the-covid-19-epidemic-in-sweden-an-analysis/#comment-3025165
Repetition of non-scientists talking BS is still BS.
You have a strong opinion and mouth sciencey sounding words, but cannot provide evidence that the virus has ever been scientificallyisolated. Just taking EM pictures of things is not isolation/purification. And if you inject something that’s not purified into an organism, you have no scientific way of determining what caused the illness. But, alas, that is the sate of biomedical research these days. It’s like climate scientists attributing all warming to CO2, because they say so.
Ever heard anything of negative controls?
EM from cells with ACE2 PCR negative for SARS-CoV-2 vs. EM from cells with ACE2 inoculated with SARS-CoV2 from patients.
You don’t need isolated virus to proof infection. In fact, you need EM pictures from virus inside a cell to prove infection!
If the virus cannot infect the cells in your dish, then it cannot replicate. If it does not replicate, you cannot cultivate it and infect more specimens. But it was shown, that you can.
You are obviously a scientific illiterate in biomedical research. It is very rare that one experiment alone proves anything. It is the accumulation of evidence from different methods that sets the picture. The evidence for SARS-CoV-2 is overwhelming.
Koch’s postulates are the standard for proving disease etiology; no electron microscopes necessary. That’s real science, which modern science has abandoned due to hubris and technology’s seductive allure. You obviously fall into the latter camp.
“The evidence for SARS-CoV-2 is overwhelming.”
You sound just like a climate scientist: The evidence for CO2 warming is overwhelming.
If you would have followed the scientific literature you would know that Koch’s postulates have been fulfilled for SARS-CoV-2.
The second postulate is not applicable to obligate parasites or microorganism. Otherwise they weren’t obligate. Viruses are obligate.
https://web.archive.org/web/20100305231640/http://jmm.sgmjournals.org/cgi/content/full/56/11/1419
Maybe you should read the postulates again:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koch%27s_postulates#The_postulates
With emphasis on their exceptions and limitations Koch and following generations of researchers have established.
“With emphasis on their exceptions and limitations Koch and following generations of researchers have established.”
Yes, I am aware how following generations of virologists modified Koch’s postulates because their viral theories could not conform to them.
So ebola is a scam in your opinion?
The first sentence in your linked article says it all (emphasis mine).
Koch’s postulates are not accepted as they are by virologists because they can’t get their theories to conform to them.
icisil, the genetic sequence of the RNA in the virus has been published. Do you understand what that means?
@icisil
You want to be a critical mind but you are just ignorant about the history of science.
Koch died in 1910 but it was not before 1930 that the first disease inducing virus was identified: the tabacco mosaic virus
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tobacco_mosaic_virus
Koch didn’t even know that viruses exist.
Koch’s postulates are just incomplete for describing the biological reality. Happened to a lot of theories.
Btw, mycoplasma are also not fulfilling the 2nd postulate. Obligate. Maybe you google what that means.
Here’s a paper that shows the isolated virus from patients:
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.02.972927v1.full.pdf+html
HP, yes I know what that means. But no one tests for the full sequence. They select a portion. or portions, of the sequence to test for. Which means the test can return a positive result for non-infectious viral fragments.
Wrong again. There a lot of papers about the virus genealogy and the different strains that sequenced the whole viral genome from patients. They even discovered that different strains can co-exist in the same individual and those strains could be isolated in cell culture meaning they were still infectious.
It is just way to expensive and laborious to do that for routine testing. Not mentioning you need at least BSL3 for doing this.
PCR may be able to detect an RNA sequence, but it can’t tell if it’s detecting a whole infectious virus, or merely a fragment. Basically a worthless test the way it’s being used. PCR test manufacturer claim their tests are not to be used for diagnostic purposes; research only.
Wrong. There are certified diagnostic PCR tests and certified diagnostic labs.
There are just a lot of tests which are not and lot of equipment that is for “research purposes only” though that is a legal term to exclude liability from the manufacturer of reagents. A certified diagnostic lab cannot do this. Otherwise the whole certification would be meaningless.
Please provide us with the excerpt from a test insert that says it can be used for diagnostic purposes. Frankly, I don’t trust you. I do place confidence in the person who invented PCR as a manufacturing technology, and who disagreed with it’s use for diagnostic purposes.
https://www.molecular.abbott/us/en/products/infectious-disease/RealTime-SARS-CoV-2-Assay
From the website:
This assay is for in vitro diagnostic use under FDA Emergency Use Authorization only.
All FDA approved certified labs:
https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/emergency-situations-medical-devices/faqs-testing-sars-cov-2
My impression is more like you just don’t want to believe what I am telling you cause it doesn’t fit your narrative.
I trust facts and evidence, not people like yourself who utilize appeals to authority.
You made me laugh very hard there. It was you who introduced appeal to authority by naming Kary Mullis. So you’re just a cherry-picking bigot or how should I interpret that?
You asked for a statement if there are tests for diagnostic purposes, I show you there are and then you insult me.
My mentioning Kary Mullis’ disagreement that PCR is suitable for diagnostic purposes is not an appeal to authority. He knew the technology better than anyone in the world, so I do give weight to what he said.
You, on the other hand, made an appeal to authority (for the second time, habitual I’d say) that the authors of the article I linked to should not be heeded because they are not scientists. THAT is an appeal to authority.
I told you in the old thread why his view might be outdated:
Then maybe he didn’t follow the evolvement of his very own technique. It came a long way from using three different water baths and a timer. ddPCR, taqman-probes etc. The development of polymerases (speed, stability, accuracy) not to mention.
No, cause I specified why they are talking BS and the answer was not “cause they are not scientist”. THAT would have been an appeal to authority. I wrote:
They don’t know what a PCR is used for and why. They don’t understand how Ct values can predict viral load, infectiousness and how it was experimentally proven. They don’t understand RNA hybridisation, proteomics and EM microscopy.
They don’t know where the term virus is originating from and how they were discovered.
Their article is not headed bc they are no scientists, the article is not heeded because it’s full of BS. That they are no scientists with biomedical education might be a very reasonable explanation for that.
@Former NIH Researcher
I have been wondering the same thing for awhile.
In a FDA certified manufacturing facility, prior to the COVID-19 virus, the following things had to be validated and qualified:
The facility – with all the environmental monitoring and controls
The method of testing: MQ, IQ. OQ, PQ,
The instrumentation
The people – to included ruggedness between operators
The maintenance plan – bringing a repaired instrument in and out of a service event; re-qualification and re-validation
Doing biological testing outside in Earth’s open atmosphere. I mean really is that what we are doing?
Some of the people at these mobile test facilities are barely trained. They are some dude or dudette that was given about 5 minutes worth of training. These people probably do not do well under stress. Who probably in live a constant state of fear over this situation. You cannot fix fear or stupid especially when they fed on one another.
I personally don’t care how the weather is a factor in the transmission rate of a mostly benign disease.
If you are not in a nursing home, hospice, or have some deep health issue then it’s like the cold.
Stop the nonsense!
But at its present rate, it could kill everyone that is alive today in about 4000 years. That’s assuming that infection does not confer long-term immunity.
Everyone alive today will be dead in 100 years. Or did I miss an implied /s tag?
Unfortunately, it’s not nonsense if your are working in ER’s and covid units in several areas in Arizona. It may kill mainly the elderly and those with underlying conditions, but it also causes horrible sickness in relatively young and healthy people.
Ventilators are what k!ill relatively young and healthy people.
Here’s an example. Healthy 41-year-old had non-covid symptoms for a month then went to the hospital when he had trouble breathing. He was immediately put on a ventilator. Then he got VAP, ventilator associated pneumonia, and nearly died. Then they put him on an ECMO machine that caused a blood clot in his leg that had to be amputated. And it just kept going downhill from there.
Broadway Star Nick Cordero Dies at 41 After Over 90 Days in Hospital from Coronavirus Complications
https://people.com/theater/nick-cordero-dead-coronavirus-complications/
“but it also causes horrible sickness in relatively young and healthy people.”
So do “Influenza Like Illnesses.”
Respiratory viruses are like that. They affect all age groups but some more than others.
Arizona dashboard as of 11:12 am PDT shows a total of 2245 deaths with 1962 of them in the 55+ age groups.
Is it any less a horrible sickness when an older and relatively healthy person contracts it and dies?
Also the use of ventilators killed a large proportion of the US deaths. Ventilators are a last ditch effort and they went to it first. The patient is sedates and never has a chance to clear their lungs, so they fill up and become an incubator for any other disease present and, in a hospital, the availability is hight. Chance of surviving on a ventilator is 20%, which is not good. Just putting a person on extra oxygen has much higher success rates and also much cheaper and much less invasive. But it means, also, less money from the government. $13k for hospitalization and $39k for intubation, which brings in a whole different incentive to the fore.
China was responsible for rushed intubation. They intubated everyone and told the world that covid was ARDS. A diagnosis of ARDS is inseparable from ventilators, so ventilators became the first line of defense.
Covid-19 and Medicine’s Misguided Romance With Machines
https://undark.org/2020/07/09/covid-19-medicine-and-machines/
There is so much we don’t know for sure about this disease.
There is reason to believe that this coronavirus causes long term health effects, like heart disease for instance. link
You don’t know for sure that this disease is benign. There’s good reason to believe otherwise.
In light of our lack of ‘for sure’ knowledge, I think it’s heroic of Brazil’s president to volunteer to be a guinea pig. link
“You don’t know for sure that this disease is benign. There’s good reason to believe otherwise.”
It looks to me like the best course of action is to get this Wuhan virus out of the body as quickly as possible. The French study in March said HCQ cleared the body of the virus in six to nine days. So that seems like a good place to start. Take HCQ as soon as possible after infection.
It seems the longer the Wuhan virus stays in the body the more damage it does, and the damage is done to all sorts of bodily systems which may have long-lasting health consequences, long after the virus is gone.
Does the Wuhan virus do damage to asymptomatic people? Does the blood-clotting come from the Wuhan virus or the cytokine storm? The blood-clotting would seem to be the problem as far as long-term health effects as it could take place in any organ of the body and might not show up as a problem for years. I’m no medical doctor, I’m just speculating.
We definitely don’t know all there is to know about the Wuhan virus. We’ll know one of these days.
People could be dying from several other viruses that we are not testing for and this will give the confusing research results we are seing. Even the whole Hcq research may be confused by all the false positives actually suffering from a different viruses or all of their comorbidities of old age.
They actually have admitted that the Chinese PCR test is based on lung perfusates and not a pure virus culture. Thus, they were simply assuming that what ever was in the person was the virus. In other words, the PCR test tests for a genetic sequence found in most coronaviruses (covis) and thus not specific for any one virus. It’s a joke with 80% false positives as it tests for general covi presence, which is more of an environmental factor as harmless covis are circulating all the time.
Furthermore, the antibody tests are nonspecific for the same reason, no pure culture is available and they go off of patients who have unknown viruses. The real science has not been done and they have designed tests, again, that test for antibodies against proteins that are common to all covis.
This explains quite nicely why they are finding so many “cases” wherever they test—by the way, you are not a case if you are not ill, as in the real world that would be a false positive. 80% false positives, wow. In addition, with no Gold Standard virus culture, none of the tests out there today have ever been properly vetted and validated for accuracy, particularly in the presence of other covis!!!!!!
Then again, they do not want the tests to be tested as they are likely to be found wanting and then all this previous testing becomes meaningless. So, they have to persist in the myth that these tests are accurate, when they really are not. They are gaslighting the country, and the world.
One variable, except for CO2 of course, is rarely the control knob in complex systems.
High humidity -> aerosol aggregation -> larger particles -> less hang time
See Stokes Law.
The humidity of Florida doesn’t seem to have slowed down the virus much.
The virus doesn’t seem to be spread much outdoors, so the heat and humidity of Florida has little effect on the spread in air conditioned shops, restaurants, bars, and other indoor places where people might gather.
I live in Florida and am spending as little time as possible outdoors this summer. If I catch the Wuhan virus it will be from dining out or shopping, not from walking the dogs or mowing the lawn.
Air conditioned air is like winter air: cool and dry
No, not really. It dries the air somewhat, but it is nothing “like winter air”. Especially in more northern climes, it can be a struggle to keep the humidity above 30%.
Especially in a drafty house with a furnace that pulls it’s combustion air from inside the house. In a tighter house with a sealed combustion furnace (which pulls combustion air from outside) or a heat pump, the indoor RH % does not drop nearly as much.
Research on SARS showed it couldn’t spread well in hot, humid conditions. Most of the spread in Singapore was in air-conditioned interiors, just as it likely is for Chinese Flu.
I doubt Remdesivir is responsible for Singapore’s low 26 deaths, because it hasn’t been used that long, and it has shown no efficacy for reducing mortality. I wonder if they followed the same rushed intubation policy that other countries with high mortalities did (e.g., China, Italy, US)?
It is difficult to compare death rates, because there doesn’t seem to be a standard definition of “death by Covid”. Having said that, 26 deaths is a remarkable claim, worthy of closer investigation.
If you’re in a northern climate, you make a lot more vitamin D in the summer than you do in the winter. (Who has a southern climate that is anything like a northern climate? Nobody.)
I’m guessing that, if you’re in the tropics, you make about the same vitamin D all year round.
you make a lot more vitamin D
Not me. I cover up in summer, wear gloves, and a broad brimmed bucket hat.
In winter with the sun lower in the sky the rays come in under the brim.
Bummer.
“Not me. I cover up in summer, wear gloves, and a broad brimmed bucket hat.”
Me, too.
I do take about 4000 IU of Vitamin D a day, though, to make up for the lack of sunlight on my skin.
Isn’t the UK pretty humid? Here in Canada, too, Southern Ontario has a higher rate of CoVid as compared to out West where I live. I know from experience how much more humid Ontario can be, I actually lived in Windsor, Ontario some years (well, actually, some decades) ago.
COVID-19 is not one thing, the same in all places.
All “cases” are not created equal.
RT-PCR tests seem to have a bit of flexibility for interpretation, and so who is to say whether there is a stable standard of such interpretation across all countries, regions of the world?
Death attribution to COVID-19 also seems to have a bit of flexibility for interpretation, and so ditto on the universal standard for that.
A complex situation has been simplistically reduced to the ONE thing and relentlessly fearmongered by irresponsible media. Government leaders are falling for the simple mindedness of it all and, consequently, destroying society, as we have known it, in the process. The result? — a scamdemic.
Seems to me the only place covid isn’t spreading is in Antarctica. Anyone think I can get a grant to publish a paper saying so?
Sarc off…
It has been obvious, from the beginning, that the season, the humidity and the temperature don’t matter. Why are people wasting time claiming otherwise?
The article is confusing. It obviously does. Do you notice the huge spike of cases like in New York, Italy, Wuhan. When you have warm temperatures and high humidity it slowly infects like in Brazil, India, southern states. It’s not that it’s impossible but the transmission rate goes down which has a slow burn, instead of the explosions of cases when the circumstances are right for transmission. When you are talking about tens of thousands of cases over a very short period of time like in New York vs a few thousand of many months like in Singapore.
I predicted this nonseasonal result here many guest posts ago. Wuhan is a coronavirus, just like the four that cause about 25% of human common colds. We know they are weakly seasonal, since spread by close personal contact. Summer colds are common.
Unlike flu, which is strongly Winter seasonal because aerosolized. Back in March, Fauci speculated seasonal like flu. He was WRONG. Sorry Tony, it it is ‘just’ another coronavirus concerning routes of infection. You should have known that. Expert, not!
Now, that has two big public health consequences.
1. Masks are useless against aerosolized virus.
2. Masks are useful IF you are sick—but then should NOT be out and about. They do not protect you from sick. They only protect sick from spreading contagion to you.
“Back in March, Fauci speculated seasonal like flu. He was WRONG.”
It was a lot more nuanced than that:
‘Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top U.S. infectious disease expert, says don’t assume the coronavirus will fade during warm weather.
Fauci told ABC’s “Good Morning America” there’s a precedent with other infections like influenza that “when the virus gets warmer that the virus goes down in its ability to replicate, to spread.”
But Fauci added “having said that, one should not assume that we are going to be rescued by a change in the weather. You must assume that the virus will continue to do its thing. If we get some help from the weather, so be it, fine. But I don’t think we need to assume that.”‘
Fauci also said masks are useless
No, that was Surgeon General Adams – a Trump political appointee.
Fauci did at one stage say that they don’t provide perfect protection. He’s right, they don’t.
would this be the same Fauci that said take a cruise….while we had cruise ships quarantining offshore….yes it would
That is not what I heard on 60 min.
““There’s no reason to be walking around with a mask,” Fauci told 60 Minutes on CBS during an interview that aired March 8. “When you’re in the middle of an outbreak, wearing a mask might make people feel a little bit better and it might even block a droplet, but it’s not providing the perfect protection that people think that it is. And, often, there are unintended consequences—people keep fiddling with the mask and they keep touching their face.””
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/dr-fauci-made-the-coronavirus-pandemic-worse-by-lying-about-masks/ar-BB15zyW3
A bit more context – Fauci:
“Right now in the United States, people should not be walking around with masks.
LaPook: You’re sure of it? Because people are listening really closely to this.
Fauci: …There’s no reason to be walking around with a mask. When you’re in the middle of an outbreak, wearing a mask might make people feel a little bit better and it might even block a droplet, but it’s not providing the perfect protection that people think that it is. “
“Right now”, Mar 8, the whole US had had 452 cases,
Nick, perfect protection or not, if masks are now the panacea they’re made out to be, Fauci’s dismissal of them early on is devastating. More than once he dismissed the use of masks early on. It makes no difference how many cases we had at the time.
Then for him to lie and say it was because they didn’t want first responders and medical personnel to run out of PPE, you can’t defend that. He never said that then, only after the fact.
He also ridiculed people asking if they should fly or not. His lies now just don’t help his case.
“He never said that then, only after the fact”
It was the very next thing he said::
“Fauci: Of course, of course. But, when you think masks, you should think of health care providers needing them and people who are ill. The people who, when you look at the films of foreign countries and you see 85% of the people wearing masks — that’s fine, that’s fine. I’m not against it. If you want to do it, that’s fine.
LaPook: But it can lead to a shortage of masks?
Fauci: Exactly, that’s the point. It could lead to a shortage of masks for the people who really need it.”
In any case, when case numbers justified it, Fauci and the CDC did advise using masks. Here he is on April 3:
“Americans should wear face masks as a way to help stifle the spread of COVID-19, said Dr. Anthony Fauci, one of the nation’s top doctors leading the public health fight against the coronavirus pandemic — a departure from previous government guidance to only wear a mask if you were caring for someone with the illness or had it yourself.”
“Fauci’s dismissal of them early on is devastating.”
So who was then resisting this advice? And who was seen for the first time on 10 July wearing a mask? If failure of government to promote mask wearing was devastating, the responsibility sits squarely with the President, not Dr Fauci.
Lol…it’s the President’s fault. There is enough blame to go around but Fauci is a political hack. That guy says everything to anyone. He is useless.
““Fauci: Of course, of course. But, when you think masks, you should think of health care providers needing them and people who are ill. The people who, when you look at the films of foreign countries and you see 85% of the people wearing masks — that’s fine, that’s fine. I’m not against it. If you want to do it, that’s fine.
LaPook: But it can lead to a shortage of masks?
Fauci: Exactly, that’s the point. It could lead to a shortage of masks for the people who really need it.”
Imo, the shortage of masks at the outset of the Wuhan virus infection is the reason the health officials were downplaying the wearing of masks by the general public, fearing a run on masks that would leave the hospitals short.
I think they misled the public, albeit for a good reason, but by doing so they have lost a lot of trust and credibiity with the public.
Speaking of Trump wearing a mask, after he was seen wearing one, there’s now a controversy among progressives as to whether or not they work (text added):
BETHESDA, MD—President Trump really is playing 11D Settlers of Catan while the rest of us are playing 2D Tiddlywinks.
Wanting the nation to begin questioning the effectiveness of masks at stopping the spread of coronavirus, Trump put on a mask during a visit to a medical center, causing the media to investigate whether or not masks really work. Liberals everywhere were seen burning their masks and running around licking doorknobs to own Trump.
“Yes, masks seem to be effective at first blush, but do they really work?” said a CNN anchor. “The bad orange man is wearing a mask, so we have to wonder: do they really stop the coronavirus? What is it that he is hiding behind that sinister disguise?”
…
Just to have fun, Trump took off the mask in the middle of the press conference and then put it back on several times, causing the media [and Australian Nick Stokes] to change their opinion on mask wearing over 17 times in three minutes.
https://tinyurl.com/y7fso6t3
“Just to have fun, Trump took off the mask in the middle of the press conference and then put it back on several times”
From time to time, he needs to tell barefaced lies.
“barefaced”
lol
Is that a sense of humor poking through that TDS infected noggin of yours?
Well I never . . . 🙂
Fauci: Exactly, that’s the point. It could lead to a shortage of masks for the people who really need it.”
He certainly didn’t stress it much. And I call BS that it would have caused a shortage for professionals. My wife made masks for use, I see most people wearing home-made masks.
And waiting until the number of cases warranted it? Seriously?? If wearing masks is to damn important now, it should have been 10 times more important before the cases jumped. That would have prevented a need for so much PPE for health care workers.
I’m sure it slowed small businesses from deciding to start making and selling masks, since Fauci said there’s no point.
The issue of masks is a case study in how people beholden to an ideology, ahead of strict adherence to facts and data, will never be able to have or pass along accurate info.
As I see it, this is cutting both ways at this point.
The entire subject is now so thoroughly infused with political considerations that individuals on either side of the “debate” have a nearly impossible time sticking to what can be asserted factually.
OK, so this coronavirus is not aerosolized and therefore not seasonal.
But if the virus is not aerosolized, why do we care?
I’m sure I’m missing something here.
Coronavirus IS aerosolized (from my reading of the research) — that’s the main way it gets deep into the lungs to infect. That’s why masks (especially woven cloth masks) are NOT effective at controlling emissions of infectious aerosols. Woven cloth has pores larger than the aerosol particles, and so a good percentage of them get through the actual pores of the crossing threads, AND also aerosol particles get out around the edges of the mask, where there is not a seal. Thus, a cloud of suspended aerosols exists in all enclosed spaces.
Also, the physics of what happens to those particles that hit the inside of the mask are not really known. Do the particles smash into the pores and get pulverized into smaller particles still by successive breaths and then get propelled off the mask? — seems reasonable that they would — they don’t just stay there magically, do they?
Yes, good percentage is coming through mask. But how much? 5%? 10%? And what is correlation with minimal infective dose?
Masks works. And I would really rather be infected under minimal dose, get asymptomatic case and immunity.
Because the issue up is whether masks work. If aerosolized, no.
If not aerosolized, then maybe if you are a viral asymptomatic shedder. Yet probably Not if not.
They are not. The thing is the aerosols containing the virus are not dust. They are liquid particles. Therefore they attach to hygroscopic fabric which dust does not and the pore size of a fabric is not the only parameter in terms of protection. The newest data about the community masks, not even surgical, was quite impressive, depending on the density and layers. Silk was surprisingly not that well suited…
Yes, anybody who says that masks does not work can spit on me through mask…
This gets the daily award for the silliest comparison. The difference is primarily due to the effectiveness of contact tracing. Singapore has a very effective system and New York no system. The cases reported in NY were mostly the result of testing those at deaths door as they were taken to hospital. The death rate in NY of 7.9% is the result of very limited testing – primarily in emergency departments. The number infected in NY will be up around 3M.
Singapore has traced most of their cases. There will not be many more infected than the 45k they have found. Their death rate of 0.05% is primarily a reflection of having found nearly all infected plus other factors such as the age profile of those transmitting the disease (mostly migrant workers) and the general health of the population.
Looking at the age profile of cases in NY:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109831/coronavirus-cases-rates-by-age-new-york-city/
Shows more than half of the reported cases are over 60. Whereas 90% of cases since March in Singapore are young migrant workers:
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3081772/coronavirus-why-so-few-deaths-among-singapores-14000
It is clean, fresh air that slows down transmission. Polluted air, no matter how slight, speeds the transmission. Cities have the most cases. My area along the central west coast of Florida, on the shoreline with constant clean air coming in off the Gulf has very few cases and deaths even though we have one of the oldest age groups per capita in the U. S. People being outside in an environment with lots of sunshine, clean fresh air and intelligent distancing has keep COVID down. But the cities along this area, Tampa & St Pete, along with smaller ones like Sarasota and Bradenton, still have cases and deaths. This should be labeled the City Dweller Virus.
What we need is some of that good old global warming thing.
Just goes to show that our exalted experts don’t know their ass from a hole in the ground. So far almost everything we’ve been told about this virus has been incorrect. When are we going to smarten up and quit listening.🤦♂️🙄
Sometimes doing nothing is the best solution.
Sweden tried that.
Yes the end result was no difference. The Virus does what the Virus does, lock-down or not.
The difference between Sweden and it’s neighbors Scandinavia and Norway are profound.
ass
hole in the ground
First, scientists and doctors don’t know why flu and many other infectious diseases display seasonality. No all infectious diseases that display seasonality peak in the winter, some peak in spring, summer or fall.
Second, there are several hypotheses why the flu and cold coronaviruses display winter seasonality. One is that lower temperature and lower humidity in winter help the virus survive longer and spread more. Another is that human behavior during the winter favors contagion (classes, more indoor activities). A third is that vitamin D levels are higher during summer and help the immune system fight the virus.
My take is that they all contribute to initiate an increase of cases during winter and herd immunity does the rest to establish seasonality. By the end of winter there are not enough people without immunity to sustain large outbreaks, so the next outbreak can only take place by next fall-winter when immunity goes down.
This would mean that a new infectious disease cannot present seasonality and can only develop it over several years by progressively shifting the cases towards the winter. This is supported by the fact that out of 6 flu pandemics in 1889, 1918, 1957, 1968, 1977, and 2009, all 6 emerged in the US after the flu season, between March 15 and July 31.
See: Fox et al., 2017 Seasonality in risk of pandemic influenza emergence
https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005749
The conclusion is very clear. Weather and season are not a significant factor when there is no important herd immunity. This is what I predicted in an article posted on May 23rd, and this is what we are observing.
https://www.rankia.com/blog/game-over/4625507-segunda-ola-covid-19
“It is clear that the seasonal factor is not decisive in the case of pandemics, against which the population does not have immunological protection. Population susceptibility seems to be the main factor in a new pandemic. Although the risk of a second wave of COVID-19 is highest in the fall, that does not mean that it cannot take place during the summer.”
The emergence of a global pandemic with severe consequences was fully predictable by a casual news-reader by the third week of February, and the lack of seasonal factor was also fully predictable. The question is why these type of phenomena so easy to predict based on basic science are not being correctly predicted by governments and experts that are being paid to do so. They talk about science all the time yet they seem unable to apply the scientific method correctly.
Thanks for the PLOS paper!
I had the hunch a long time ago that there will be no seasonality if the herd immunity is mainly non-existent but it’s very nice to have something to cite. Highly appreciated.
One government got it right.
Taiwan was hit hard by SARS and has been planning for the next pandemic ever since then. Canada was also hit by SARS and, by contrast, has done nothing. The result is that Canada is running up a huge deficit that may warp the economy forever. link
I’ve got a lot of respect for Taiwan’s epidemic response, I was in Taiwan during the 2003 SARS outbreak. They went absolutely nuts, doctors and thermal cameras everywhere.
Yes. Apparently they were sufficiently unhappy with the results that they came up with a much better response.
With all the bull crap floating around, Taiwan is a clear, unambiguous, example of best practices.
A good discussion of seasonality based on different patterns in northern and southern hemispheres (and some interesting statistics).
“Question: Anything else besides multicultural tolerance that enabled Singapore’s success?
Answer: Air conditioning. ”
Part of the site selection criteria for the Capital of the United States was that it be in such a miserable place that Congress wouldn’t spend more time there than it had to – thus limiting the damage it might do to the Republic. The swamp known as Washington DC met that criterion in spades, with its brutal heat and humidity for much of the year.
Those of us who despair at what the U.S. government is doing to this country have long noted that the demise of the Republic began with the introduction of air conditioning into Washington DC. Technology can be a boon, but also a destroyer.
Interesting video Maybe a valid curative approach.
Interesting. Taiwan, Japan, Singapore are using inhaled steroids. Low deaths in all cases.
Has anyone crunched the stats on the rate of Covid-19 deaths that have already occurred amongst people who take budesonide for asthma control? Should not need to wait till October to work that out.
Wow—over 2 million views after 9 days online at YouTube at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDSDdwN2Xcg Comments there include:
Budesonide is sold under the name brand Pulmicort Respules. This is the type that can only be used by inhalation using the nebulizer.
Type of Steroid: Corticosteroids; Google Pulmicort and you will find it.
You can buy it OVER THE COUNTER without prescription as RHINOCORT
Hopefully the President doesn’t talk about this or they will take it away from us.
This gives me hope and I’m a hospital RN; yes inhaled corticosteroid (a class of steroids) (pulmicort-brand name) is used in a twice daily dose nebulizer (cost of home nebulizer machine is about $40 at any drug store and does not require a prescription for the machine) to prevent asthma exacerbations and has been a safe standard of care for years.
I heard of this in late April and people said i was a conspirist,
PS: Here are a few cautionary comments on the YouTube page. The side-effects will likely be cited as a reason to diss or prohibit this medication:
I have tried this for asthma. Can be a good drug but has some side effects. I basically got so weak I couldn’t get up so had to come off it but I mean if I was dying that wouldn’t matter
Nebulizers are prohibited from being used on Covid patients because the mist spreads the virus.
I just picked up 3 day FB jail for sharing this video.
PPS: Yet more comments:
Gargling with hot saturated salt water works well to if you do it when the symptoms are first detected.
I looked at a detailed description of Taiwan’s response to Covid-19, and there is no mention of medication. Only prevention by tracking and isolation. Here’s a link: https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/30/taiwan-lessons-fighting-covid-19-using-electronic-health-records/
inhaled budesonide decreases the number and severity of asthma attacks. However, it will not relieve an asthma attack that has already started. By the time you get to the hospital it has started.
Bartlett says: 90% of the effect is lost with an inhaler vs. a nebulizer. Says that NIH is doing a study that is due in October and is set up for failure, because not being used early enough. 14:40. Current standard of care is to give people Tylenol and tell them to tough it out at home. 15:30: France and Spain and Oxford will be starting studies. Favors early testing and early detection.
Interviewer: “There’s some sort of a manipulation going on encouraging America to wait it out for a vaccine.”
“Budesonide is sold under the name brand Pulmicort Respules. This is the type that can only be used by inhalation using the nebulizer.”
Why can’t generic budesonide be used?
Some clarification. Pulmicort Respules is a prescription medication and is the only form to be used for nebulized inhalation. Rhinocort is non-prescription and is not for inhalation; it is a sinus spray.
Something stinks.
This is simple math. Singapore has roughly 1/3 the number of covid cases per million people as compared to New York.
So Singapore should have roughly 1/3 the total number of deaths as New York…
Singapore had 26 deaths as compared to 32,000 deaths in New York divided by 3 is say 10,000.
So Singapore has found some way to reduce there expected total covid death rate from 10,000 to 26.
Singapore has an almost perfect treatment for Covid to be able to reduce their deaths from a predicted 10,000 to 26.
China has no covid cases and/or almost no covid deaths.
Odd unexplained statistics, almost as if China knew what was coming and had a secret tested solutions.
Singapore is now 100% behind/China. Include 100% behind China’s takeover of all commercial activity in the South
“Despite the disputes, Singapore and Beijing have consistently affirm their unwavering close relationship and bilateral ties, deepening their co-operation in numerous areas, including defence, economy, culture and education, as well as One Belt One Road Initiative. Singapore has also vowed to fully support and promote China’s position in ASEAN, while managing the differences between the Chinese state and the organisation”
It is definitely worth a closer look. But it is premature IMO to conclude Singapore are doing something right without a lot more investigation.
As I understand it, most of the deaths in NYC were in care homes. Because they sent infected people to places full of people who were already near death and at extremely high risk if they caught the disease.
Same in Canada; the vast majority of deaths were in care homes, hence the extremely high death rate.
The solution to having a high death rate is apparently to ensure that people who are at a very high risk of dying from it don’t catch it. Which is kind of what you’d expect, and any sane government would have concentrated on protecting those people rather than locking away the ones who are at low risk and demanding they wear masks.
But, of course, we don’t have sane governments in the West.
The presence of humidity in the air is important to preserve the virus. Temperature plays a probably different role. The combination of humidity and temperature in the external environment is fundamental to understand how the virus, through the expansion of water vapor, espands itself (see https://valedo.com/umidita-temperatura-e-sars-cov-2/ ). The air exhaled just before coming out of the mouth or nose has a temperature of about 37 ° C and a relative humidity of about 80-90%. Depending on the “external” temperature and relative humidity values, it is possible to introduce a sort of indicator of the ability to infect of coronavirus (see https://valedo.com/contagio-da-coronavirus-e-distanza-di-sicurezza/) . It is above all the relationship between humidity and temperature in the “outside” air that governs the transmission of the virus. Texts not in english, use a translator.
And who’s numbers are correct and who says they are not fudged. Worldometer numbers are based on Government health dept or authorities input. Most of the worlds governments are UN-WHO members and have accepted them as their de facto experts for Government polices. Governments are corruptible are they not. CDC are private for profit company. Is John Hopkins data trustworthy seeing they are involved with Gates and Fauci and the WHO, WEF and the Davos crowd?
When one simply looks at all the various diagnosis and the treatments they are all symptomatic. It looks like an initial response based on possible misdiagnosis? Any death is recorded as “she/he died after testing positive for coronavirus”,or “died with covid” or “died of covid”, “as a result of” or “because of”, but “after testing positive”. Much confusion. You die because of or as a result of an infection not with an infection . There is so much confusion in the numbers so why do we even bother to believe them. Comorbidity makes it impossible to define. It like the manipulated temperature data.
Why is this suddenly a novel virus? Coronavirus has been around forever they say, maybe just another strain?
As a non scientist and a lay person there is so much BS about this it is the same type of BS surrounding the climate change BS.
There is too much excitement and when Governments become exited beware.
Again models made predictions and Governments believed them because it is what the UN-IPCC said was true, never mind the falsified and manipulated data. Same with this scam.
When one looks at Europe and the northern hemisphere and the all death mortality and compares this to previous data, is it not odd that suddenly there is a big spike that was synchronised as was shown by Prof Denis Rancourt? There is no marked difference from previous summer and winter data, all appears to be in line with normal trends bar the expected variations.
Is it also not possible that Governments have suddenly realised they may all have fallen for a scam bar a few and are embarrassed to tell the truth for fear of losing their control if they are exposed so they need to manipulate data to justify their response to the WHO pandemic declaration?
My two cents worth.
Climate, heat, humidity–are they factors for this virus to thrive and infect humans?
Why don’t we look at a living, life-sized petri dish?
It’s called Africa.
Africa, most of the sub-Saharan portion, is hot, humid, wet, pretty much constantly. Humans live very close to one another. For the vast majority, there is no air-conditioning in homes, offices, shops, or elsewhere.
So–what is the infection rate in Africa? What is the death rate?
Why is Africa seemingly ignored in this “global pandemic?”
What’s up with that?
Folks have noticed that countries with malaria don’t seem to get the novel coronavirus. Is it because of the drugs used to treat malaria? Is it just that having suffered from malaria is protective against this coronavirus?
CommieBob,
Good question.
It seems ludicrous to pretend Africa does not exist, during this “global pandemic.”
Africa is tightly connected to China. China has industry, aid operations, and much more activity and contacts throughout Africa. Africa is not isolated from the world. If covid is so virulent and contagious, Africa should have been infected immediately. And the “exponential” spread should have blanketed the entire continent.
Africa is regularly ravaged by epidemic/pandemics. The claim is that Covid is uniquely contagious and dangerous. Why is Africa NOT decimated by Covid?
Something’s missing from the “science” proclamations on the threat to America from this virus. The evidence (or lack of evidence proving the counter-argument) is in Africa.
COuld it be that the virus is passed via the human digestive process (human waste and /or gas)? That would explain how people in a building who have never met both caught the virus at the same time (if there were no P-traps on plumbin). It would also explain why retirement homes were such fertile ground for the disease with prevalent incontinence.
“New York, population 8,175,133, infections 405,827, infection rate 21,940 / million, deaths 32,393.”
Start over using either infections/deaths for NYC or population for NYS.
I contacted a friend who sells millions of dollars each year of industrial heat exchangers, some air-air but he was not familiar with the equipment needed to let a bar/restaurant go 100% fresh make-up air. Turns out the terminology is specific to HVAC. How I love modern multi-discipline engineering teams!
As a lead-in see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_recovery_ventilation The clue is HVAC ERV. Not cheap, but less than the legal fees if someone sues you bar/restaurant for making them sick (Gulp!)
/sac Rant: How can an advanced civilization (2020) be so poor in contact tracing that it cannot even answer the question, “Are fabric masks ???% as effective as E95 in preventing SARS-CoV-2 transmission?” As a professional Process Engineer, I am horrified at the lack of verified, trust-worthy information on Covid-19 infection vectors.
COVID is worse. Anyone could get it, without doing anything more ‘risky’ than going to a grocery store. You only got AIDS in a few pretty specific ways and if you wanted to avoid the risk, you could choose not to do a few things. It’s pretty hard for most of us to always avoid getting near other people, not to mention that no one is even completely sure of all the ways COVID is passed on, so any of us could do something risky because we don’t even know exactly what is risky.
A 2006 peer-reviewed scientific paper (Inglesby et al., 2006) on pandemic mitigation policy said the efficacy of 3-feet social distancing is unknown, surgical masks do little to prevent virus droplet inhalation, and closing schools, restaurants, stores…have seriously adverse community consequences.
https://notrickszone.com/2020/07/09/in-2006-the-science-of-pandemic-mitigation-was-nearly-the-opposite-of-what-it-is-in-2020/
Will need to reexamine theory. This just in from FOX35 Orlando.
“According to the latest publication of statewide test results from the Florida Department of Health, published on Friday, several testing facilities’ positivity rates for coronavirus tests were 27.66, 33.33, 37.10, 40, 43.13, 44.44, 50, 55, 57.14, 59.23, 60, 87.5, 91.18, and 100.
Twenty-two labs reported 100-percent positivity rates. Two labs reported 91.18-percent positivity rates. “