Oil Demand To Spike In 2021 By 5.7 Million Barrels Daily As Oil Companies Slash Production: IEA

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CHRIS WHITE TECH REPORTER June 16, 202012:45 PM ET

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Cuts in oil supply and a record rebound in demand in 2021 will help put the fossil fuel industry on better footing even as the pandemic hammers oil demand, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday.

Demand for oil will rebound by a record 5.7 million barrels per day even as world demand for crude drops by 8.1 million barrels daily in 2020, the IEA reported. The report comes as city officials ease up on economic lockdowns, which is spurring a recovery in crude demand.

Officials began instituting strict stay-at-home orders in early March to slow the spread of a pandemic that originated in China before spreading across the world, killing a reported 116,000 people in the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Millions of Americans filed for unemployment benefits as a result of the lockdowns.

President Donald Trump played a big role in getting Russia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to drop output in April, bringing production to 9.7 million barrels a day. (RELATED: ‘Give Me The Price’: Trump Ignores Journalist For Not Knowing Oil Costs)

Prices plunged into the $30s in March as Saudi Arabia pushed for a cut in output to prop up prices, while Russia worked to infuse the market with hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil. Saudi Arabia relented and moved to increase output, kicking off a prolonged sell-off that roiled global markets.

“The market will be on a more stable footing by the end of the second half [of 2020]” if oil-producing nations stick to their plans to constrict global supply, the IEA said in its report. OPEC’s move to extend supply cuts into July will inevitably help speed up the oil market’s recovery, the IEA noted.

If jet-fuel demand is not taken into consideration, then global oil demand should reach pre-crisis levels in mid-2021, according to IEA’s executive director Fatih Birol.

“The key issue is when people will start to fly,” Birol said Tuesday, adding: “if there is a solution to the coronavirus problem and the economy rebounds as foreseen, we may well see in the near term oil demand go back to pre-crisis levels.”

A drop off in air travel, which constitutes a large chunk of global oil consumption, means that jet fuel and kerosene will recover by just 1 million barrels a day in 2021 after falling 3 million barrels during 2020, the IEA expects, which is below pre-crisis levels.

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2hotel9
June 16, 2020 2:23 pm

OK, simple explanation time. People use coal, and oil, and hydro, and nuclear. Those are facts. And those facts ain’t going away, leftards.

Scissor
June 16, 2020 2:41 pm

Pretty poor article with regard to jet fuel considerations. For instance, the article on jet fuel it linked to was from January. A lot has happened since then.

IEA apparently guesses consumption in “chunks.” They’re probably correct within one or two chunks.

markl
June 16, 2020 2:42 pm

Despite all the virtue signaling by various Western governments the ‘march to renewables’ has been an abject failure to economies and the environment while providing sub standard energy reliability in comparison to fossil fuels.

ResourceGuy
June 16, 2020 2:47 pm

A generally poorer set of nations and workforces will return to work to recover lives, incomes, savings, and not buy overpriced EVs. There won’t be enough elites to buy all the EV production to pay for the development costs and rental cars will flood the market at some point plus other unsold inventory. The marketing reach effort to get lower income workers to want things they don’t really need will falter.

Bruce Cobb
June 16, 2020 2:54 pm

Well, oil’s well that ends well.

Reply to  Bruce Cobb
June 17, 2020 3:52 am

Tom Abbott
Reply to  David Middleton
June 17, 2020 5:27 am

I was wondering where you were, David. I was starting to worry. Now I see you are alive and kicking! 🙂

Reply to  Tom Abbott
June 17, 2020 6:53 am

Been swamped with work and still working from home. I may have a couple of posts in the near future… Funny thing is that I could find more time for WUWT posts when I was in the offices than when I’m working from home.

2hotel9
Reply to  David Middleton
June 17, 2020 7:22 am

Too many other things popping up!

Reply to  2hotel9
June 17, 2020 9:10 am

Stricter boss.

MarkW
Reply to  David Middleton
June 17, 2020 8:02 am

The children have to be walked.

Reply to  MarkW
June 17, 2020 9:08 am

We take the rowdy ones to daycare… Mostly just the lazy/older dogs vying for “Employee of the Week”… 😉

Robert W. Turner
June 16, 2020 3:55 pm

Assuming that the globalists don’t succeed in creating the anarchy they are pushing in order to create the power vacuum.

June 16, 2020 4:38 pm

What… another fake hockey-stick graph? Invented to create more panic. BS.

pat
June 16, 2020 4:49 pm

a surprise coming from CAGW alarmists!

March 2020: ResearchGate: Renewable energy development threatens many globally important biodiversity areas
Article PDF in Global Change Biology (LINK)
by José Andrés Rehbein, World Bank; Joe Lane, James E.M. Watson and Laura Sonter of The University of Queensland
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339715092_Renewable_energy_development_threatens_many_globally_important_biodiversity_areas

EW3
June 17, 2020 12:52 am

But the government told us back in the 70s that there would be no oil after the year 2000.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  EW3
June 17, 2020 5:30 am

The government says a lot of things that turn out to be wrong.

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