Guest essay by Eric Worrall
According to New Scientist, places which can’t afford air conditioning are in real trouble.
Climate change has already made parts of the world too hot for humans
ENVIRONMENT 8 May 2020
By Adam VaughanGlobal warming has already made parts of the world hotter than the human body can withstand, decades earlier than climate models expected this to happen.
…
Wet bulb temperature (TW) is a measure of heat and humidity, taken from a thermometer covered in a water-soaked cloth. Beyond a threshold of 35°C TW the body is unable to cool itself by sweating, but lower levels can still be deadly, as was seen in the 2003 European heatwave that killed thousands without passing 28°C TW.
…
“The crossings of all of these thresholds imply greater risk to human health – we can say we are universally creeping close to this magic threshold of 35°C. The tantalising conclusion is it looks like, in some cases for a brief period of the day, we have exceeded this value,” says Tom Matthews at Loughborough University in the UK.
..;
Clare Heaviside at University College London says the work is broadly in line with existing research, but cautioned against the focus on the threshold of 35°C TW. “It is difficult to link a wet bulb temperature threshold to specific health outcomes, and for different population groups,” she says.
…
Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2242855-climate-change-has-already-made-parts-of-the-world-too-hot-for-humans/
The abstract of the study;
The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human tolerance
Colin Raymond1,2,*, Tom Matthews3 and Radley M. Horton2,4
See all authors and affiliationsScience Advances 08 May 2020:
Vol. 6, no. 19, eaaw1838
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaw1838Humans’ ability to efficiently shed heat has enabled us to range over every continent, but a wet-bulb temperature (TW) of 35°C marks our upper physiological limit, and much lower values have serious health and productivity impacts. Climate models project the first 35°C TW occurrences by the mid-21st century. However, a comprehensive evaluation of weather station data shows that some coastal subtropical locations have already reported a TW of 35°C and that extreme humid heat overall has more than doubled in frequency since 1979. Recent exceedances of 35°C in global maximum sea surface temperature provide further support for the validity of these dangerously high TW values. We find the most extreme humid heat is highly localized in both space and time and is correspondingly substantially underestimated in reanalysis products. Our findings thus underscore the serious challenge posed by humid heat that is more intense than previously reported and increasingly severe.
Read more: https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/19/eaaw1838
“It is difficult to link a wet bulb temperature threshold to specific health outcomes, and for different population groups,”
Smart advice. Hard wet bulb limits are the fantasy invention of people who have worked all their lives in comfortable air conditioned offices in temperate countries.
A long time ago I had job operating a hydraulic hot press in a poorly ventilated chemical factory. On the very hottest days the indoor temperature hit 55C / 130F, according to the thermometer next to my station, with visible lingering clouds of mostly water steam from polymerisation of the material being pressed.
The management used to look concerned when temperatures peaked, made sure we drank a cup of rehydration fluid every 5 minutes, but otherwise we just carried on.
Plenty of blue collar workers, such as miners, bakers and foundry workers, endure similar conditions on a regular basis.
This guy never lived in the American South, with 95% humidity and 100+ degree temps in the summer without air conditioning.
Hi, Mr. Wingo,
How are things going these days with the ISEE-3 project?
(https://www.arworld.us/pr_html/141014-ISEE-3-Spacecraft.asp)
The valiant attempt by headed by you (and helped much by the late Robert Farquhar and others) to try to regain control of the spacecraft was SO WONDERFUL and so heartbreaking, no doubt…
How are things going with it now? The latest I could find (and I just got lazy and only searched for about 15 minutes) was this from August, 2014 (other than the vague text from October, 2014, in the linked page above):
https://spacepolicyonline.com/news/isee-3-returns-home-on-sunday-with-new-life-as-citizen-science-project/
Is any data being received now from the ISEE-3? Or, has it gone out of range, for now? How close to earth must the ISEE-3 be on its return (in 2029, I think?) before you can receive data from it once again?
Thank you, SO MUCH, for including the WUWT people in your fine effort. That was SO COOL.
And, how are you doing?
I hope you are doing very well.
Take care,
Janice Moore
P.S. I have no idea if you could get published on WUWT these days — things appear to be different around here, now… — but, IF YOU CAN, do write a little update for us. I am sure that many people here would be very interested to hear from you.
Dennis (and Andrew a little upthread); you mention 100+ degrees and 95% humidity, but I don’t think they are occurring at the same time. That would equate to a dew point of over 95 degrees F (not even on this chart:
https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-826f72467a9ae73177ba3540644bf549).
The record dew point in the U.S. is 88 degrees F; average summer dew points in the US south and midwest do typically range through the 70s, and occasionally reaching 80 degrees.
Now I could see a dew point 80 degrees F, and in the morning if the temp is around 83 degrees, that would be 90% humidity. But as the temperature reaches 100 degrees (with the 80 degree dew point), the humidity will be around 55%.
No argument that is still quite humid; but that equates to a wet bulb temperature of about 85 degrees F. This is 10 degrees below the article discussion of 35 degrees C wet bulb temp, or 95 degrees F (which I suspect is rare in the world, though likely occurring occasionally around the Red Sea/Persian Gulf regions . . . ).
Perhaps his mummy and daddy won’t yet allow him to travel abroad. 😕
In September 1970 I was in Port Sudan loading cotton for Japan. The temperature at noon in the shade (only there wasn’t much) was 125F with around 10% humidity.. The local dockerrs worked very hard and managed fine. The crew were mostly Singaporean and they thought it was good ‘cos it was so dry. And no, the ship didn’t have aircon.
So where are these guys living? Oh yes, Loughborough. Really hot place.
Hi, Old Sea Dog! 🙂 Just wanted to say hi. (Good example with a good point, too.) Remember me? I am still very respectful of your nautical knowledge. Take care.
I think I can better that. Try Khorramshahr, many miles up the Shatt El Arab – before you get to Basra. We used to get a shunt early morning and it took the wharfies about 90 minutes to fill the wagons. They then knocked off. We got another shunt about 4 30 in the afternoon, and they resumed work, for another 90 minutes.
Once, it looked like a good afternoon, so some of us decided to play cricket on the wharf, using a ball containing a nut (steel) wrapped around with rope yarn. We had a very enjoyable afternoon, with the temperature a comfortable 50C. The ship’s Master had just started off on a three day bender, and being full of the joys of spring (or something) decided to join us. At 4 we knocked off and retreated to our cabins. As soon as I got into my cabin I started sweating,, and within a minute or so my shirt was soaking wet. Only solution, lay starkers on the bunk with the fan on.
The best thing was that the Master was de-juiced from the cricket, and that evening he was stone cold sober. Recommend Khorramshahr for a pain free hangover cure.
Not sure what the wet bulb temperature was, probably about 10C.
”The crossings of all of these thresholds imply greater risk to human health – we can say we are universally creeping close to this magic threshold of 35°C.” Who are these ‘we’ and where are they located?
“We find the most extreme humid heat is highly localized in both space and time and is correspondingly substantially underestimated in reanalysis products.” From which we can directly infer that they have no clue as to the actual areas, and thus no knowledge of their historical temperature records.
All I can glean from this study is that it may get uncomfortably hot somewhere, for short times. So if it hits a record high temperature in any present-day hotspot they can point and shout, “climate change!” Sorry, they lose. They must tell us WHERE and HOW (we can even let them slide as to WHEN) an area’s climate will change, using the actual definition of climate – a prolonged period of time during which the temperature or precipitation has shifted to a new long term average. Temporary heatwaves are weather; they only count if they are sufficiently frequent in one area as to change that area’s long term averages.
You would have to be ignorant to write this article and a damn fool to believe it. Sadly there appear to be lots of both.
In Murcia (Spain) 35ºC in summer is a cool temperature and with 40ºC it is already getting hot.
Does anyone write counter papers to contest these loopy ones or do they just remain in the peer reviewed list and wither for lack of citations.
1. Yes. Here is one:
(https://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/10/michael-manns-lecture-at-uri-and-the-blogger-who-must-not-be-named/#comment-41725 )
Other scholars who have been successful include:
John R. Christy
William Gray
Richard Lindzen
Roger A. Pielke, Sr.
S. Fred Singer
Dr. Wei-Hock “Willie” Soon
And two more:
(Itoh’s comment is here: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/02/25/japans-society-of-energy-and-resources-disses-the-ipcc-says-recent-climate-change-is-driven-by-natural-cycles-not-human-industrial-activity/#comment-81150 )
Anthony Watts 🙂
Analysis of the Impacts of Station Exposure on the U.S. Historical Climatology Network Temperatures and Temperature Trends
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2010JD015146
*************************
2. Getting a not-pro AGW article published is more difficult.
(https://www.masterresource.org/debate-issues/lindzen-choi-special-treatment/ )
Yet another case of “scientists” thinking the planet should remain static at some arbitrary point. Unevolving, unchanging. That is indeed a fantasy land.
Ever wondered why climate related deaths have plummeted over the last 150 years or so . It’s called air conditioning. A 10 degree temperature increase or decrease can be negated by a simple switch . The only risk to that failsafe climate control is if the electricity that runs the air conditioners becomes too expensive or unreliable for people to be able to use.
Governments have spent bazillions trying to extract a degree or two less of a rise where a better result could be achieved far cheaper by making sure everyone in the world had an air conditioner and cheap reliable electricity.
Clean drinking water may also play a role in decreasing summer deaths. Bacteria grow in warm water. It would be interesting to investigate what change has been saving most lives. With some data, we could set priorities. Cheap reliable energy should be top of the list because it provides A/C as you said and clean water, light, etc.
Well, I live in NJ. It’s May 9th and the temp here is 39F degrees. I’d love some that global warming right now.
Come to Arizona it about 39C 100 F today. I move here from North Dakota glad I did.
It’s a miracle that all those people in Cairo, Baghdad and Mumbai have survived there for 6000+ years.
The people most affected by heat … are the same who are most affected by the flu. So they were goners anyway.
But they didn’t survive. All those who lived there 6000+ years ago have died.
QED.
“… 2003 European heatwave that killed thousands without passing 28°C TW.”
If I recall what I was told at the time, the actual cause of that heatwave was that it was caused by GW Bush failing to sign the Kyoto Accords, which he could not sign because Bill Clinton had already signed it…
When was Death Valley ever considered survivable?
Hasn’t it always been named Death Valley?
I’ve soaked my entire body (minus my head, I mean below my head) for scores of minutes in 113 F (45 C) hot springs without any ill effects.
I’m guessing that most of the northern Australians are in bed right now. As they awake and read this I’m expecting the guffaw heard around the world.
Not just northern.
Try summer in Adelaide.
“It is difficult to link a wet bulb temperature threshold to specific health outcomes, and for different population groups,”
I went through basic training at Ft. Jackson in SC. in June and July. They used the wet bulb at that basic training post. Had a special flag they would run up the flag poles when the wet bulb temp got to a certain level and that flag signaled that all training be moved to CTAs (Covered Training Areas) and the uniform would be T-shirts with pant legs un-bloused and rolled up. I always wondered WTF? There ain’t gonna be no wet bulb flag on a battlefield! We did have several cases of heat stroke and one death in my training battalion despite the precautions but that just goes to show how variable reactions to heat can be even in large groups of relatively young and healthy people.
Same at Ft Knox, KY. Went through Basic and AIT from June through August. We had a few wet bulb warning days.
I blacked out once on a road march with weapons. We were coming back to the weapons holding area (we just called “Holder”), and I lost about 15 minutes from the end of the march. I “came to” in the middle of cleaning my weapon. No one said a thing, no one noticed. A couple other guys actually passed out on that march.
And thereby you show you haven’t understood the article.
I’ve done 55°C around Death Valley in August. As long as you hydrate it’s fine
But 35°C at Chichen Itza just before a thunderstorm was almost unbearable.
Sweating does not work. All you can do is radiate and hope.
It is of course possible for humans, especially dark skinned humans, to survive. But it is not a happy temperature at high humidity
“Beyond a threshold of 35°C TW the body is unable to cool itself by sweating, but lower levels can still be deadly, as was seen in the 2003 European heatwave that killed thousands without passing 28°C TW.”
Of course not mentioned is the high mortality was related to the elderly in nursing homes (sound familiar?) and those living alone without cooling shelters available who were not looked in on by friends and relatives since the heat wave was over a holiday. There was a lot of guilt associated with these deaths and the simple solution was to off-load the guilt onto the failures of government.
I am a northern New Yorker (average yearly temp 9.1C ). I was scooped up from northern Michigan in June and dropped in Thailand where I worked 12 hour shifts on a large blacktop surface often exceeding 40C. I adapted in three days (no choice). There was no AC to make the transition more difficult.
Yeah Sal. Maybe the “scientist” meant to say that Snowflakes won’t be able to adapt. I’m having trouble being bothered by that.
When I was stationed at Bad Tolz in Bavaria I always looked forward to what they would call a heatwave. It was funny to see the Germans acting as if it was killer hot when the temp got to 80 deg. F. But the best part was that the frauleins would come out in their sun skirts wearing no slips or go down to the banks of the Isar River for some topless sun bathing.
Funny thing is having served in the middle east and having done training in various deserts, and ran PT and ruck runs in San Antonio, the place I came nearest to becoming a heat casualty was at about 7,000 ASL climbing up the side of a mountain in the Kaiser Wilhelm range in Austria.
When were you in, rah? I was stationed at Bad Kissingen 81 to 83 as a 19D (professional target) in the 2/11 Armored Cav. We were supposed to protect the southern end of the Fulda Gap in case the SHTF.
1980 to 1992. Stationed at Flint Kasserne in Bad Tolz, January 1983 till Dec. 1986 though I was in Germany several times TDY before that. The day I departed to come back to the states was when the PanAm flight went down at Lockerby. I departed for permanent change of station from the exact same gate after that flight had left from. They even made me take my military ink pen apart before boarding after pointing out my luggage on the ramp. The Arabs almost got me three times. That time and another when a Syrian artillery shell landed about 15′ away from where I was sitting in Lebanon in Feb. 1984. There was a short stone wall between where I was sitting and where the shell landed that saved my ass. Rang my bell pretty good though. Another, also in Lebanon, when a sucker shot at me and hit the corner of the building I was looking around close enough I got a little cut on my head and dust in my eyes.
I want to know *where* this is occurring. I want an exact latitude and longitude. Then I can get the cooling degree-day data for the past 36 months at that location and see if cooling requirements are actually going up of if this is just another “we think this is happening somewhere”!
70% of Earth is uninhabitable without special measures.
They’re called ships.
Nice! But I hear Communist China has set about changing all of that.
The biggest landmasses of the Northern hemisphere are uninhabitable without supplementary heating and warm clothing.
A while back in my life I was ultra running, and putting in 50 to 70 miles a week on the trails year round. I had a lunch routine of a 10 mile, 1200 foot gain, out and back from my Lab at NAWC China Lake to the top of “B” mountain out on the North Range. During May the temps would climb from low 80’s to high 90’s. June typically low 100’s, July and August hotter. I would adapt fine into summer though I found around 105F to be my comfortable limit on the steep parts. Above 105 things started looking beached out and I would hear a kind of rushing sound. One thing that always struck me was how watery my sweat became as I heat adapted. If I did a run on an abnormally warm day in say March, I’d be all sticky and salty. In July I’d sweat buckets on a run but it was just water, after a bit it all evaporated away and it was as if I had not run. Oh, if you are wondering, I typically worked alone.
The heat sure is getting out of control!
So much so that we had snow flurries today in Connecticut. ❄️ ❄️ ❄️
Hey, still six weeks to the summer solstice, so what’s so unusual about that?
Like many of the correspondents here I served in Malaya mid 1950’s (and later in Malaysia early ’60’s) and can recall wearing a suit, admittedly lightweight but still jacket and tie, when the temperature dropped below 80 degrees F. Tony W
From the New Scientist article:
‘Steven Sherwood at University of New South Wales in Australia, who was not involved in the research, says … “The implications of this study are that such extreme conditions which push the tolerance of the human body are not as far off into the future as we thought, at least in a few locations on Earth …”‘.
Steve Sherwood (UNSW) is a hot spot aficionado:
http://joannenova.com.au/2015/06/sherwoods-devout-unscientific-faith-in-climate-change-and-the-hot-spot/