New Scientist: Global Warming has Already Made Parts of the World Unsurvivably Hot

Original image: Man at bridge holding head with hands and screaming
Original image: Man at bridge holding head with hands and screaming. By Edvard Munch – WebMuseum at ibiblioPage: http://www.ibiblio.org/wm/paint/auth/munch/Image URL: http://www.ibiblio.org/wm/paint/auth/munch/munch.scream.jpg, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=37610298

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

According to New Scientist, places which can’t afford air conditioning are in real trouble.

Climate change has already made parts of the world too hot for humans

ENVIRONMENT 8 May 2020
By  Adam Vaughan

Global warming has already made parts of the world hotter than the human body can withstand, decades earlier than climate models expected this to happen.

Wet bulb temperature (TW) is a measure of heat and humidity, taken from a thermometer covered in a water-soaked cloth. Beyond a threshold of 35°C TW the body is unable to cool itself by sweating, but lower levels can still be deadly, as was seen in the 2003 European heatwave that killed thousands without passing 28°C TW.

“The crossings of all of these thresholds imply greater risk to human health  we can say we are universally creeping close to this magic threshold of 35°C. The tantalising conclusion is it looks like, in some cases for a brief period of the day, we have exceeded this value,” says Tom Matthews at Loughborough University in the UK.

..;

Clare Heaviside at University College London says the work is broadly in line with existing research, but cautioned against the focus on the threshold of 35°C TW. “It is difficult to link a wet bulb temperature threshold to specific health outcomes, and for different population groups,” she says.

Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2242855-climate-change-has-already-made-parts-of-the-world-too-hot-for-humans/

The abstract of the study;

The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human tolerance

Colin Raymond1,2,*, Tom Matthews3 and Radley M. Horton2,4

 See all authors and affiliationsScience Advances  08 May 2020:
Vol. 6, no. 19, eaaw1838
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaw1838 

Humans’ ability to efficiently shed heat has enabled us to range over every continent, but a wet-bulb temperature (TW) of 35°C marks our upper physiological limit, and much lower values have serious health and productivity impacts. Climate models project the first 35°C TW occurrences by the mid-21st century. However, a comprehensive evaluation of weather station data shows that some coastal subtropical locations have already reported a TW of 35°C and that extreme humid heat overall has more than doubled in frequency since 1979. Recent exceedances of 35°C in global maximum sea surface temperature provide further support for the validity of these dangerously high TW values. We find the most extreme humid heat is highly localized in both space and time and is correspondingly substantially underestimated in reanalysis products. Our findings thus underscore the serious challenge posed by humid heat that is more intense than previously reported and increasingly severe.

Read more: https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/19/eaaw1838

“It is difficult to link a wet bulb temperature threshold to specific health outcomes, and for different population groups,”

Smart advice. Hard wet bulb limits are the fantasy invention of people who have worked all their lives in comfortable air conditioned offices in temperate countries.

A long time ago I had job operating a hydraulic hot press in a poorly ventilated chemical factory. On the very hottest days the indoor temperature hit 55C / 130F, according to the thermometer next to my station, with visible lingering clouds of mostly water steam from polymerisation of the material being pressed.

The management used to look concerned when temperatures peaked, made sure we drank a cup of rehydration fluid every 5 minutes, but otherwise we just carried on.

Plenty of blue collar workers, such as miners, bakers and foundry workers, endure similar conditions on a regular basis.

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Robert of Texas
May 9, 2020 10:20 am

I completely agree, it’s called “Texas in the summertime”.

The only option for us to to sit inside watching TV drinking ice-cold Shiner Bock (or Blonde) beer.

I think because it’s the world’s fault this has happened, they should have to pay for my beer.

Scissor
Reply to  Robert of Texas
May 9, 2020 11:12 am

Plus if you wear glasses, you’re blinded when going outside from them fogging up. I guess Colon, et al, never heard of air conditioning.

Reply to  Scissor
May 9, 2020 3:45 pm

I expierenced that glasses fogging when i was in Bangladesh in 1995, also people in the tropics tend to put their airco at a freezing 18 centigrade.

Richard Patton
Reply to  Scissor
May 9, 2020 9:18 pm

Try going from -20℉ to 70℉ in 10 seconds. Instant hard frost on the glasses, that takes five minutes to thaw.

brians356
Reply to  Robert of Texas
May 9, 2020 11:35 am

I’ve been in Singapore at 35° C and 90% RH. So am I really dead, Mr Jordan?

Scissor
Reply to  brians356
May 9, 2020 1:12 pm

I resided in Houston and spent 7 summers there (decades ago). Though playing tennis outside during the middle of the day was challenging, I think I’m still alive.

Softball was easier because we played in early evening and always had a few refreshing beverages in the shade afterward.

Out of curiosity, I just checked Houston’s temperature and it’s 22C. Must be global warming.

Rhee
Reply to  Scissor
May 9, 2020 2:02 pm

I spent about 1 year in Houston (2005, the Katrina/Rita year) and it was nuts in the summer. Worked in a downtown skyscraper; one morning I got to work and noticed the window by my cubicle was wet, so I tried to dry it with a tissue for about a minute until I realized the droplets were condensation on the outside of the building – due to A/C making windows cold. Really hated walking out to the garage at 5pm and having my shirt drenched before I got three steps from the elevator. But I lived to tell the story, and apparently Houston is still 4th largest inhabited city in the nation.

Scissor
Reply to  Rhee
May 9, 2020 2:59 pm

Yogi might say, “It’s so hot and crowded, no one wants to live there.”

Jimb
Reply to  Scissor
May 9, 2020 3:21 pm

It was really cool this morning. Have had the heat on all day
Jim in Houston

Reply to  Scissor
May 11, 2020 1:58 pm

Scissor,
I went to college in Houston in the 1970’s. It was easy to find an open tennis court
in the afternnon each summer – wonder why? LOL! The rain messed up our tennis
more than the heat. If it rained I’d sometimes head over to near TSU where there were outdoor basketball courts and play pickup ball. But at that age we were bullet (and humidity) proof. Not so much anymore. Now reside in Arizona.
God help us without A/C.

george
Reply to  brians356
May 9, 2020 3:54 pm

An Australian summer 40c and 95% RH good beach and beer drinking weather. <:o)

brians356
Reply to  george
May 10, 2020 12:51 pm

Just watch out for those Bluebottles. Ouch.

Richard (the cynical one)
Reply to  brians356
May 9, 2020 9:41 pm

“It’s life, Jim, but not as we know it.”

nottoobrite
Reply to  Richard (the cynical one)
May 10, 2020 1:24 am

Flying helecopters in the Arab Gulf in late 1970’s 50c+ was common

Ian
Reply to  nottoobrite
May 14, 2020 11:31 pm

I worked in Saudi where it was hot and humid in the Eastern Province 50c wasn’t unusual. It never got hotter as the aircraft was only certified to 50.

Some days we checked the temp for laughs. 61 on the apron.

Reply to  Robert of Texas
May 9, 2020 11:40 am

Actually being from Shiner, Texas, and having worked in the brewery there right out of high school, your comment warms my heart!

That bottle shop with the open-air steam-pasteurizer in August in Texas convinced me that I wanted to do something else for the rest of my life 🙂

Latitude
Reply to  Robert of Texas
May 9, 2020 5:32 pm

…there’s always death valley

Hashbang
Reply to  Robert of Texas
May 9, 2020 7:17 pm

In about 1982 when I was an apprentice radio mechanic I had to run a coaxial cable through the ceiling of Tully railway station in North Queensland during mid summer. I can tell you that was the most hot and humid situation I have experienced. My clothes were literally saturated with sweat in about 30 seconds. Spent about five minutes up there and was glad to get out into the relatively “cool” air which is typically in the low 30s (celsius) with dew point in the mid to high 20s. I have spent time in the Philippines and lived in North Queensland all my life but that little experience takes the cake.

Richard Patton
Reply to  Hashbang
May 9, 2020 9:26 pm

Here in the U.S. OSHA rules don’t allow that. When I was a cable guy, if the outside air temperature was over about 80℉ (27℃) we were forbidden to go into the attic, there were times when the job had to be rescheduled for the very first thing in the morning.

May 9, 2020 10:20 am

Without measuring the relative humidity at the same place or the correspondent air temperature doesn’t say anything

Martin C
Reply to  Krishna Gans
May 9, 2020 2:44 pm

Krishna and all,
I agree that a wet bulb temperature of 35 C, which is 95 F, doesn’t say anything about what the air temperature. For any wet bulb temperature, there is a relationship between air temp and relative humidity. But a 35C wet bulb temperature is incredibly humid, regardless of the actual air temperature.

I wonder how many places around the would reach at 35C wetbulb for any length of time. Even the comment above about Singapore being 35C and 90% humidity is a wetbulb temperature of about 89 degrees F or about 32 degrees C.

For the relationship between wet bulb temp, air temp, and relative humidity, see simplified psychometric chart at this link (it is in degrees F):
https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-826f72467a9ae73177ba3540644bf549

Jimb
Reply to  Martin C
May 9, 2020 3:24 pm

But I no longer have access to a sling psychrometer

Martin C
Reply to  Jimb
May 9, 2020 10:40 pm

you really don’t need it ( . not sure if you were being a bit sarcastic . . 🙂 ).

ust look at the chart for temp and relative humidity, which is often what the weather report (or temp and dew point), and you can find the wet bulb temperature.

Neil Jordan
May 9, 2020 10:26 am

Eric – I can confirm your hydraulic press experience. I worked at a paper mill with some areas having the same conditions. Water coolers, salt pills, and spot coolers were the solutions. Addendum – working in the Mojave Desert, it was so hot that the liquid crystal displays turned black and unreadable. That was welcome, because we had to work in the morning and evening with the instrumentation being more sensitive to the heat than the humans holding the instrumentation.

Ron Long
Reply to  Neil Jordan
May 9, 2020 11:40 am

That’s hot, Neil, but I was even hotter to the north of Mojave Desert. We geologists were drilling a project on the west side of the Panamint Mountains in California, and we decided to cross Death Valley to get to the project, this in the middle of July. Imagine three geologists, cooler full of bottles of rehydration liquids, in a dark blue Blazer with black roof. About a third of the way across, temperature around 46 deg C, motor starts overheating, so turn off air conditioner. Still motor temperature goes up dangerously, so turn on heater max heat and full blast, windows open, temperature inside around 60 deg C. Clever geologists that we were the re-hydration liquids were sacrificed, some over our heads and some internal. About two-thirds across the dash splits in half and the motor makes funny noises, but more importantly, re-hydration liquids almost gone. Finally across, turn off motor at Furnace Creek, replenish re-hydration liquids, and eventually continue to project. Moral of the story: if three geologists can adapt probably other people can also.

Reply to  Neil Jordan
May 9, 2020 11:58 am

I spent a few hours in a silicon metal plant near Montreal in mid summer about 45yrs ago. The quartz raw material (SiO2) in a crucible with wood chips was reduced and melted using carbon electrodes ~a foot in diameter.

The molten silicon when hardened was dumped on the concrete floor and pushed with a small wheeled dozer to a jaw crusher feed bin. The workers had heavy heat resistant gear on and I a lighter visitors outfit. It was 30C+ outside and it felt almost chilly when I left in my car.

This dishonest report is part of the preparation for “greensplainin” the snowfall Im seeing out my wind on this fine May day. They never mentioned a place we can look up to check. The big La Nina is setting up and we will be seeing a lot of this burning up BS over the summer. I new it had to be a UK climateer when he mentioned a puny 35°C. I’m sure his Ozzie climate worriers will be chastizing them for unremarkable 35 degrees.

Michael S. Kelly
Reply to  Neil Jordan
May 9, 2020 3:41 pm

I helped pay for my undergraduate engineering education by working summers at Chrysler St. Louis Assembly in Fenton, MO. I did two summers at Truck, and one at Car (1973-1976). Chrysler hired temporary workers during the summer to fill in for vacationing UAW people.

Missouri summers are brutal, but you take a Missouri summer and put it inside a half million square foot machine dissipating megawatts of power as cars or trucks are assembled, and throw in 3,000 people under each roof, and you have a real sweatbox.

There were fans scattered around, but I think they probably warmed the air more than anything else. Every 20 feet or so was an upright steel I-beam, and every one of them had a box of Morton salt tablets hanging on it. You can’t find those today…salt is bad, according to our nannies. They kept us healthy, though.

The only air conditioned parts of the plants were the break areas, and the various engineering and management offices. The second summer I worked there was the best, in many regards. I was assigned janitor duty. I got to see every square inch of the plant, and learn how every operation was performed – and clean the air-conditioned spaces! (The break areas were always inhabited by the rest of the janitorial staff, who had seniority and played cards all day with impunity.)

One other aspect of that summer that made it bearable: My starting pay – as a janitor – was $15,000 a year. The average starting salary of a Mechanical Engineer (my major) with a bachelor’s degree that same year was $13,800.

And they wonder why Chrysler went BK….

Curtis D Cushman
Reply to  Neil Jordan
May 9, 2020 9:06 pm

Surveyed in Death Vallet. 106 F (41.1+ C). It was called, no kidding “a cold snap.”
Drank a gallon of juice in one afternoon. When you’re young, you do stuff like that.

The Expulsive
Reply to  Neil Jordan
May 10, 2020 6:32 am

I worked for Toronto Hydro as underground engineer in chambers and vaults…on a hot, muggy day (over 32c) they would order all non-emergency workers in, as the vaults, especially those with 1500kva or higher oil cooled transformers, would spike at well over 40c. I measured one vault on Front Street at 48c, though that transformer was also percolating.
The Vaughan is a politician, and quite left wing (a Dipper), as well as a known warmunist.

rbabcock
May 9, 2020 10:30 am

Well I guess global cooling is arriving just in time.

Samuel C Cogar
Reply to  rbabcock
May 9, 2020 12:19 pm

In the NH, …. it is “seasonal warming” that is arriving just in time, …. and I now know why.

Cause I just realized that “seasonal warming” in the Northern Hemisphere is caused by decreasing atmospheric CO2, ……whereas, ”seasonal cooling” in the Northern Hemisphere is caused by increasing atmospheric CO2.

And the Keeling Curve Graph is literal proof of that happening.

When atmospheric CO2 starts decreasing in the Springtime, … air temperatures start increasing.

When atmospheric CO2 starts increasing in the Autumn, … air temperatures start decreasing.

“YUP”, the more CO2 in the atmosphere, …. the more “heat” is radiated to space.

Given the above, ….. CO2 will henceforth be referred to as a “globalcooling” gas.

Eritas

Scissor
Reply to  Samuel C Cogar
May 9, 2020 3:08 pm

When fully examined, there is really little correlation of CO2 with warmth on almost all timescales.

goldminor
Reply to  Samuel C Cogar
May 9, 2020 4:38 pm

+10

Richard M
Reply to  rbabcock
May 9, 2020 12:26 pm

According to CFSR we have cooled .8 C in the last 3 months. Hey, if I’m going to pick cherries they might as well be ripe ones. ;))

comment image

Janice Moore
Reply to  Richard M
May 9, 2020 2:51 pm

Hi, Richard M. 🙂

Hope all is well back there in Minnesota. I will always be grateful for your being willing to help me out. That was so kind of you. Even though I couldn’t take you up on that offer of aid — just that you were WILLING helped me keep on walking up the road with a broken heart (hard to have someone you thought cared very much give you the cold shoulder — and that has happened multiple times, now).

Take care and enjoy spring (it WILL happen).

Mark Luhman
Reply to  Janice Moore
May 9, 2020 3:34 pm

In late June 1975 I lived in Moorhead Minnesota, it rain 8 inches in Moorhead and twelve east and west of town. It turn hot the 4th of July it was 95 F and foggy. I survived that even though at the time I did not have AC in the house or the car. House I lived in was manufactured and cheaply made, funny I survived both the flood and the heat.

Chaswarnertoo
May 9, 2020 10:35 am

Clown world.

Janice Moore
Reply to  Chaswarnertoo
May 9, 2020 11:08 am

Wicked clowns. Ghouls.

… creeping close to this magic threshold … tantalising …

You can just see the fiendish glint in their swamp green eyes as they rub their bony hands together, slimy drool trickling down their chins, muttering, “Die, humans, diiiiiiie. There are too many of you.”

Okay, okay. Tom Matthews, et al. are probably not THAT horrible, but, they are creepy (is it for money you tell these lies, Tom, et al.? academic prestige? whatever it is, it isn’t good.)

jorgekafkazar
Reply to  Janice Moore
May 9, 2020 11:54 am

Mandibles. There should be mandibles.

Andrew Burnette
Reply to  jorgekafkazar
May 9, 2020 12:00 pm

Ha ha. Yes, mandibles!

Jimb
Reply to  Andrew Burnette
May 9, 2020 3:28 pm

And maxillas

Reply to  Janice Moore
May 9, 2020 12:12 pm

Janice, you are appearing more frequently these days! Nice to see you brought your literary harpoon. The social climate worriers seem to be clubbing themselves in the head these days though.

Janice Moore
Reply to  Gary Pearse
May 9, 2020 2:46 pm

Hi, Gary! 🙂

Thank you! Well, I have been on a “staycation” for quite awhile, now. 45 days, to be exact. And I like it, for the most part. My job is BORING and LOW-pay, so, while I am AGAINST this lockdown (see my many comments over the past month or so, lol), the fact is, I am getting paid to do NOTHING and that’s pretty cool (not morally, but, I can’t do anything about that — so, I’m just enjoying relaxing, reading, and BLOGGING! Sure wish we could still post images and videos 🙁 ). The site itself is irritating (technically and lukewarmingly), but you WONDERFUL COMMENTERS, all you fine geologists (smile) and chemists and physicists and mathematicians and engineers and witty, kind, well-informed thinkers of many types — YOU PEOPLE ARE SO COOL TO HANG OUT WITH.

Wish the software here made “chatting” (to a limited degree, I mean) easier and less annoying to try to accomplish.

Anyway. I have NEVER had a paid vacation in my LIFE! Not likely to have another one, either, if I keep getting the responses from potential employers I have been getting for years, now. The only jobs I can land are not the paid vacation kinds… .

And all THAT blah, blah, blah shows you that I have NO ONE TO TALK TO.

Thank you for listening.

Take care.

Janice

Eamon Butler
Reply to  Janice Moore
May 10, 2020 3:28 am

Hi Janice,
”YOU PEOPLE ARE SO COOL TO HANG OUT WITH.”
I always thought that, everyone was here to hang out with you.

Best to you all, Eamon.

Janice Moore
Reply to  Janice Moore
May 10, 2020 9:43 am

Eamon! (*blushing*)

You are SO KIND to say that to me (to take the time to write and tell me was a lovely gift). Thank you. I am going to press the petals of that little blessing 🌺 between the pages of my heart and smile all day long. I realize that there are some who will read your words and think, “Speak for yourself, Eamon,” but I daresay that there are a few here who enjoy my company. And that sure is nice.

I hope all is well with you over in Ireland. Are they listening to you YET about the effectiveness and logic of nuclear power? Keep at it — the seeds you are planting for truth may not grow quickly, but, they are growing… .

Take care,

Gratefully,

Janice

Curious George
May 9, 2020 10:36 am

“Places which can’t afford air conditioning are in real trouble.” Ban fossil fuels. Then everybody is in real trouble, equity achieved. Carve a notch.

Art
Reply to  Curious George
May 9, 2020 10:50 am

History informs us that when the ruling elite ban something for the great unwashed masses, they always have an excuse for exempting themselves from the ban.

Paula Cohen
Reply to  Art
May 9, 2020 3:19 pm

Truer words were never spoke!!! EVER!!!

Hivemind
Reply to  Art
May 9, 2020 11:07 pm

A good example is the crossbow, which was so demonic it was banned against all civilised enemies. But the Islamics… they were another matter.

Reply to  Curious George
May 9, 2020 11:14 am

How did the world survive before the invention of AC? Especially in the tropics where civilization arose.

Richard of NZ
Reply to  co2isnotevil
May 9, 2020 12:15 pm

How did the Bushmen survive in the Namib?

Grant
May 9, 2020 10:36 am

Funny how they always go back to 1979

Janice Moore
Reply to  Grant
May 9, 2020 11:00 am

Yeah, interesting, isn’t it.

For anyone not getting Grant’s excellent point (now that most of us can no longer post graphs/images/videos (when is this site going to get fixed!!!!), it is harder to show) but, imagine this:

START 1936 trend line *——————————————-

START 1998 trend line *——————————————-

Mr.
May 9, 2020 10:37 am

I reckon a new regulation is needed (because there aren’t already enough regulations) –

when a person is sitting in the shade and the temp hits 35C, they should be legally allowed to take off all their clothes, no matter where they are or who is around them.

A tried & proven adaptation measure observed by early explorers such as Captain James Cook etc etc

JohnM de France
Reply to  Mr.
May 9, 2020 11:28 am

My clothes come off at 25°C, lower if there is no wind.

Mr.
Reply to  JohnM de France
May 9, 2020 2:19 pm

OK JohnM, you just need to be careful you don’t have a Ron White moment –
“I didn’t realize it was that cold that day . . .”

Tom in Florida
Reply to  Mr.
May 9, 2020 11:53 am

That would require millions of blindfolds to be handed out to prevent an eye condition called “Walmart Vision Stress”.

Janice Moore
Reply to  Tom in Florida
May 9, 2020 2:34 pm

Heh. Maybe it’s good we CAN’T post images and videos here anymore… . 😆

Samuel C Cogar
Reply to  Mr.
May 9, 2020 12:38 pm

Mr. – May 9, 2020 at 10:37 am

when a person is sitting in the shade and the temp hits 35C (95F), they should be legally allowed to take off all their clothes, no matter where they are or who is around them.

Then summertime sightseeing would be great in …….

Phoenix, AZ average temperatures
Month —-– day — night
June ——- 104° / 76°
July ——- 106° / 82°
August — 105° / 81°

Mark Luhman
Reply to  Samuel C Cogar
May 9, 2020 3:30 pm

Mesa AZ st present time 100 F it was 106 a few days ago. Relative dry here now May and June dry months July, August more humid, I missed one day after a two in rain late July, left town before it hit 116. The people who service my car work out in this heat a summer long. I hike the desert in 100 plus temps, to the most part snakes are a problem at those temps. This time of year there is a flat of water in my pickup all the time.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Samuel C Cogar
May 9, 2020 5:14 pm

Samuel
When I lived in Phoenix 20-some years ago, my pool got up to 95° F in early-August — just about the average between the daily high and low. I would get home from work and my Rhodesian Ridgeback would be waiting for me at the back gate, and there was a wet trail from the pool to the gate. She apparently spent all afternoon sitting or lying on the top step into the pool, to keep ‘cool.’

Mr.
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
May 9, 2020 5:45 pm

And the look on her face said – “what??”

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Mr.
May 10, 2020 8:15 pm

Mr.
It said, “I’m glad you’re home!” And the later I was, the happier she was to see me.

Rick C PE
Reply to  Mr.
May 9, 2020 3:26 pm

In tropical climes
There are certain times
Of day
When all the citizens retire
To take their clothes off and perspire
It’s one of those rules
The greatest fools
Obey
Because the sun is far too sultry
And one must avoid its ultry-
Violet ray

The natives grieve when the white men leave their huts
Because they’re obviously, definitely nuts!

Mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the midday sun.

–Noel Coward

Jimb
Reply to  Mr.
May 9, 2020 3:33 pm

Umm. You do know what happened to the good Captain. Right?

Hivemind
Reply to  Mr.
May 9, 2020 11:12 pm

In high school (in Adelaide), I had a textbook that showed a Darwin (I think) shopping mall with people shopping naked, because it was over 45 degrees Centigrade. Those were the days BA (Before Airconditioning). In fact, I remember seeing advertising for airconditioners for factories which promoted the increase in productivity you got when people weren’t so hot.

Art
May 9, 2020 10:38 am

Time to panic, because if it continues to warm, soon we’ll be at the same temperature as the Medieval Climate Optimum when the human population was reduced by 40%….oh wait, that was the Little Ice Age.

Never mind.

HD Hoese
May 9, 2020 10:41 am

I received this link from Sigma Xi some time back, and wondered about it, having been to sea helping measure temperatures up to two decades before 1979 where there weren’t very many (Gulf of Mexico).

“While our analysis of weather stations indicates that TW has already been reported as having exceeded 35°C in limited areas for short periods, this has not yet occurred at the regional scale represented by reanalysis data, which is also the approximate scale of model projections of future TW extremes considered in previous studies (14, 15). To increase the comparability of our station findings with these model projections, we implement a generalized extreme value (GEV) analysis to estimate the amount of global warming from the preindustrial period until TW will regularly exceed 35°C at the global hottest ERA-Interim grid cells, currently all located in the Persian Gulf area (Fig. 4).”

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/19/eaaw1838

In Severdrup, et al., The Oceans, 1942, p 162, chapter on “Distribution of Variables in the Sea.” “A warning appears to be appropriate–namely, a warning against confusion between individual and local changes (p. 162).” I guess that has been solved along with all the missing historic area SSTs.

HD Hoese
Reply to  HD Hoese
May 9, 2020 11:03 am

Two mistakes, Sverdrup and local changes (p. 157), considerable discussion

May 9, 2020 10:51 am

Just more Green falsehoods.

COLD WEATHER KILLS 20 TIMES AS MANY PEOPLE AS HOT WEATHER SEPTEMBER 4, 2015
by Joseph D’Aleo and Allan MacRae
https://friendsofsciencecalgary.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/cold-weather-kills-macrae-daleo-4sept2015-final.pdf
__________________

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
May 9, 2020 5:30 pm

Allan
Another article on the topic makes the claim, “…, heat-related illnesses already kill more U.S. residents than any other weather-related hazard including cold, hurricanes or floods.”
[ https://scitechdaily.com/emerging-across-the-globe-potentially-fatal-combinations-of-heat-and-humidity/ ]
I question the accuracy of the claim.

Another point is that people have different tolerances for heat. When I was about 18, a friend and I drove to the Mother Lode in July. It was very hot, as is usual for July, and while I was uncomfortable, my friend was laid out with hyperthermia and I had to cool him down with water before he could make it back to the car.

DonK31
May 9, 2020 10:51 am

Where in this world, other than the frigid Antarctic, do people not live under conditions normal for that area? If you take a Swede and drop him in the Congo, he may not be able to quickly adapt. Same as it you dropped a Congolese in the middle of a Siberian Winter. That does not mean that it is impossible for humans to live in either area.

Sal Minella
Reply to  DonK31
May 9, 2020 2:02 pm

I am a northern New Yorker (average yearly temp 9.1C ). I was scooped up from northern Michigan in June and dropped in Thailand where I worked 12 hour shifts on a large blacktop surface often exceeding 40C. I adapted in three days (no choice). There was no AC to make the transition more difficult.

Janice Moore
May 9, 2020 10:53 am

Climate models project

The IPCC’s climate simulation models have been proven unskilled.

(Source: https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2013/09/24/new-book-climate-models-fail/ )

… extreme humid heat is highly localized … thus …

Thus, your findings have negligible meaning for “global warming.”

******************************

And, EVEN IF, we granted all of your assertions as true,

the fact remains:

not one piece of data proves causation between human CO2 emissions and global climate ANYTHING.

Walt D.
May 9, 2020 10:54 am

What they forget to tell you that this Global Warming is natural.
Even if we allow the Global Warming produced by increasing CO2 to be 0.2C per century that is not going to have any appreciable affect for Thousands on years. At 3ppm per year it will take 130 years to double CO2 and another 520 years to double it again.

brians356
Reply to  Walt D.
May 9, 2020 11:07 am

You mean 2+ C per century (what they’re ballyhooing for this century.)

Walt D.
Reply to  brians356
May 9, 2020 11:46 am

You are correct. I meant per decade.
Of by a factor of 10 is par for the course.
Zeroeth Law of Climate Science.: One is approximately equal to one hundred.

Johnny Fever
May 9, 2020 10:56 am

From the “New Scientist”. This must be for the practice of New science, not the Old science which relied upon experimentation, empirical data, and the Old scientific method. The New science is the enlightened version – similar to New math – where truth is relative and empirical data no longer are facts – only imaginary projections from computer models are the New facts.

What a steaming pile of horse manure!

Scissor
Reply to  Johnny Fever
May 9, 2020 11:24 am

That would be about 38C, since that’s a typical rectal temperature for a horse.

jorgekafkazar
Reply to  Johnny Fever
May 9, 2020 12:04 pm

Horse manure has some value. This paper, not so much.

Ssm
May 9, 2020 10:58 am

A predictable prediction from couch potato pansies

May 9, 2020 11:00 am

Quotes from the New Scientist article authored by Adam Vaughan, referenced above, and my related questions and comments:

“Global warming has already made parts of the world hotter than the human body can withstand, decades earlier than climate models expected this to happen.”
— Just wondering if you have any facts to go with that? And please explain how inanimate climate models have expectations.

“Beyond a threshold of 35°C TW the body is unable to cool itself by sweating.”
— Just wondering if you consulted the people of these INHABITED cities to see how they manage to stay alive:
“Aziziyah, Libya. The former crown bearer of the hottest place on earth, this small town in the Jafara district of Libya is no stranger to blistering heat. In 1922 the temperature was recorded as a crushing 58C. However, this controversial reading was later discounted by the World Meteorological Organisation, who questioned the experience of the person who recorded it. That being said, it’s still hot hot hot: with daily temperatures climbing over 48C”, and
“Dallol, Ethiopia. Famed for its hydrothermal field of salt formations, acidic hot springs and gas geysers, Dallol also claims the title of the world’s lowest sub-aerial volcano. Average daily highs reach 41C. Spare a thought for the people who live there: these numbers make it the highest average temperature of any inhabited place on earth.”
— sources of the above-quoted information: https://www.express.co.uk/travel/articles/916462/weather-the-hottest-places-on-earth

“The crossings of all of these thresholds imply greater risk to human health – we can say we are universally creeping close to this magic threshold of 35°C.”
— Does your universe include the temperate and polar zones of Earth? If so, please cite where on Earth, excluding the tropic zones, we are “close” to a sustained daily temperature of 35°C?

Bottom line: Mr. Vaughan, I ain’t buying what you’re selling.

jorgekafkazar
Reply to  Gordon Dressler
May 9, 2020 12:13 pm

“And please explain how inanimate climate models have expectations.”

Perhaps the same way that Dallol can “claim the title of the world’s lowest sub-aerial volcano.” :>

Personification, a figure of speech.

Reply to  jorgekafkazar
May 9, 2020 12:52 pm

My model said that you would say that.

Russ R.
Reply to  Gordon Dressler
May 9, 2020 1:13 pm

And please explain how inanimate climate models have expectations.

All models are required to contain the following statement:

expectations -= results;

This ensures that whatever the result is, it will exceed expectations.

Ed Zuiderwijk
May 9, 2020 11:07 am

Singapore appears to be incommunicado, not because of the heat, wet or not, but because they all find themselves on the floor under the table with laughter.

Janice Moore
Reply to  Ed Zuiderwijk
May 9, 2020 11:47 am

Singaporeans reading the above article by Adam “Electric cars really are a greener option than fossil fuel vehicles” Vaughan

😐🤨🤭😀😄😆🤣🙄

Bulova
May 9, 2020 11:39 am

The authors obviously have never worked in the boiler room of a Navy ship. If your rate was Fireman or Boilerman who got to spend your whole career down there.

130 degrees 24/7.

And everything you touched was wrapped in a blanket to asbestos…

Joseph Campbell
Reply to  Bulova
May 9, 2020 12:24 pm

Bulova: Right on! CVA 11 Intrepid 1960 FA…

F. Ross
Reply to  Bulova
May 9, 2020 3:21 pm

Go Navy! (ex-tin can FTG)

…it is rumored that steel mills can be on the “warm” side of comfortable.

4EDouglas
May 9, 2020 11:42 am

I’ve spent hours on the USFS Tanker Base Ramp at the old Phoenix Airtanker base. 122F the aircraft (DC7) was a good 130F. worked in those conditions for a few days. Didn’t die -salt stains on my Nomex
from sweating . Gallons of Gatoraide, but we lived…
The trouble with this study is not they are trying do this but the credit they give our intelligence..

jorgekafkazar
Reply to  4EDouglas
May 9, 2020 12:16 pm

“It am worse than we thunk.”

May 9, 2020 11:56 am

Shouldn’t we be able to find these areas based on their being depopulated? Which areas are those? Shouldn’t there be abandoned ruined cities? Maybe they came to northern canada when we weren’t looking, temps there are well below these horrific levels, which should please the authors. I invite them to explore the inviting temperatures of Inuvik.
I recommend bringing extra diesel, just in case

Janice Moore
Reply to  Pat from Kerbob
May 9, 2020 12:29 pm

🙂

Reply to  Pat from Kerbob
May 9, 2020 3:52 pm

LOts of abandoned cities in Central and South America. It must have happened before.

May 9, 2020 12:06 pm

“Recent exceedances of 35°C in global maximum sea surface temperature provide further support”

Except for ‘closed’ small ‘seas’ the maximum temperatures for sea surfaces in the oceans is 31C. Evap and convection is the reason. ‘Make stuff up’ is the late Stephen Schneiders legacy for climate science. As if they needed extra encouragement.

Reply to  Gary Pearse
May 9, 2020 4:51 pm

Yes, indeed.

“At the ocean surface, the ocean and atmosphere place a natural cap on water temperature thanks to convection, the force that causes strong vertical movement in the atmosphere and makes towering thunderstorms.
“As ocean temperature rises in a given region, convection pulls moisture upward into the atmosphere and builds clouds. Those clouds limit the sunlight that reaches the ocean surface and thus cool it. This process begins to take place when ocean surface temperatures reach 26° C (79° F) or so.
“Very small areas of water can get very hot for short periods of time but that doesn’t say much about the overall warmth of the ocean so let’s consider regional or larger scales and monthly averages. At the present time, the limit to which ocean surface temperatures can rise at those scales is estimated to be about 30° C (86° F), though monthly maximums in a few areas in the tropics have reached 31° C (88° F).”
— souce: https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/voyager-there-limit-how-much-sea-temperatures-can-rise

DocSiders
May 9, 2020 12:10 pm

But the predicted (and not yet happening very much) warming is expected to be almost exclusively extra tropical. So the hottest places on earth are not expected to get much (if any) hotter.

So far the traces of warming we’ve seen are mostly at the poles at night in the winter.

The prospects of Arctic nighttime winter temperatures occasionally dropping to only -64 degrees instead of -67 degrees by the end of this century is upsetting as hell.

Janice Moore
Reply to  DocSiders
May 9, 2020 12:34 pm

lol😄

Doc Chuck
Reply to  DocSiders
May 9, 2020 2:44 pm

Bingo! If these authors are in fact remuneratively required to tip their hat to “Global Warming” (which in turn no doubt signals their virtuously sensitive feelings for the less fortunate), they will surely be much relieved to discover that those changes have been documented mostly to have consisted in elevation of nightly lows in high northern latitudes (to the modest relief of those many more among us threatened with hypothermic mortality).

A wet bulb (sling hygrometer) temperature nearing that of its companion dry bulb thermometer simply indicates the high humidity of the air. So of course in muggy, hot conditions you are not going to get much sweat cooling relief as the wet bulb temperature approaches your 37 C. body temperature. However more equatorial latitudes benefit from the very humidity that considerably limits the comfortable heat regulatory efficiency of sweating by at the same time providing the condensing atmospheric water vapor for cloud formation (that increased albedo reflecting more of the insolation), as well as the recurring cooling effect of condensed descending cooled water droplet rain showers that limit extreme temperature elevation itself.

It’s in the drier air of low temperate latitudes where the truly high temperature deserts are located and where sweating and other augmented evaporation at the body surface such as water soaked clothing cooled by the breeze or an electric fan, shade seeking adaptations and afternoon muscle heat generating activity limitation (siestas), not to mention refrigerated air conditioning, come into play as effective defenses against hyperthermia. They clearly need to get outside of the computer facility more often.

Andrew Burnette
May 9, 2020 12:12 pm

Some folks have already beat me out on hottest working conditions stories, but thought I would add mine just to pile on…

During high school (mid-70’s), we would fix fences and haul hay (60 to 80 lb bales) during summer. Frequently, we would spend 6 hours straight in 100+ F at 95% humidity. We had to wear long sleeves, gloves and hats to keep the mosquitoes from sucking us dry.

Not a single one of us died, although we thought we might at times.

Janice Moore
Reply to  Andrew Burnette
May 9, 2020 2:30 pm

So you know that you were read (and I wish I could write to all on this thread, but, I can’t go through putting little atta boy/girl comments on EVERY comment — I talk enough as it is! lol) — wanted to use a Reply to your great example to point out:

and these men (no women commenting thusly, so far that I could see — they could, though, I have anecdotal evidence for that — not working quite as hard, but hard enough) were all working hard in that humid heat.

The article implies that just sitting around on the front porch drinking sweetened iced tea and occasionally shuffling over to the refrigerator to get a popsicle would be hotter than the human body can withstand … .

Unbelievable.

May 9, 2020 12:18 pm

Sort of related – carbon dioxide doing its thing and creating a wave of cold records on the East Coast. Meanwhile, here in N. California, beautiful and verdant foliage to go with the climate crisis-induced lovely weather.

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